Los

Angeles Solar:
Now and into the Future



J.R. DeShazo, Director, UCLA Luskin Center for InnovaCon
Manuel Pastor, Director, USC Program for Environmental and Regional Equity

March 27, 2015

Los Angeles is in boYom third of

uCliCes for solar in California
900
800

Wa#s per Customer

700
600
500
400
300

159 solar waYs

per customer

200
100
0

Burbank
W&P

PG&E

SDG&E

SMUD

SCE

Pasadena Riverside
W&P
Public
UClity

LADWP

Anaheim Glendale
Public
W&P
UClity

Los Angeles remains heavily

dependent on coal
3,000

42% of power
mix

Coal Capacity (MW)

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

PG & E

SMUD

Glendale
W&P

Burbank
W&P

Pasadena
W&P

SDG&E

SCE

LADWP

LA Clean Energy CoaliCons vision for

in-basin solar
1,500 MW of in-basin solar by 2025

1,500 MW
1,200 MW
Clean Coalition

Clean Coalition

800 MW
600 MW

Clean Coalition

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Scaling to 1,500 MW of in-basin solar

1,600

2025 Goal

1,400

Community solar
and other
municipal
projects

Program Capacity (MW)

1,200
1,000

100 MW of
municipal
projects
500 MW
of net
metering

Net Metering

800

900 MW
of
expanded
feed-in
tari

600
400

Feed-in Tari

200
0
2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Los Angeles following States lead

Governor Jerry Brown has
called for 50% renewables
by 2030


To comply with current
RPS requirements, LADWP
must procure at least 75% of renewable energy from

Category 1 RECs


FiT, community solar and municipal projects receive Category 1 RECs
NEM projects receive Category 3 RECs

Achieving in-basin solar goals will create

local jobs
Total job years created
Job years for large projects

35,950
17,950

Feed-in tari
Community solar
Other municipal projects

Job years for small projects

718
1,077

18,000
Net metering

Note: Includes 22,950 direct job years and 13,000 indirect job years

16,155

18,000

remove GHGs and other pollutants

Over 26.4 million metric tons of avoided CO2e

The equivalent to

more
t
han
5
.6
m
illion

vehicles removed
from Los Angeles
roads

Note: GHG avoided when replacing coal-re power plant

Source: UCLA Luskin Center for InnovaCon Ratepayer Impact Model
EPA Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator

and generate clean local energy for

Los Angeles homes and businesses
Nearly 39 million MWh of energy produced

Enough to power
over 335,000 Los
Angeles homes
per year

Note: Assumes 6,621 kWh average annual LADWP household electricity consumpCon (CEC, 2012)

Local businesses will be able to take

advantage of federal tax credits

Even if the 30%

Federal Investment Tax Credit is reduced in
2016, Los Angeles businesses can sCll
leverage

$552 million
in tax credits

Note: Assumes ITC is reduced to 10% in 2017

Where are we now with installing

rooiop solar in Los Angeles?
Total in-basin solar
capacity:

153.5 MW
Net metering
(NEM):

Feed-in tari
(FiT):

143 MW
93%

6.5 MW
4%

Other in-basin
solar:

4 MW

3%

LADWP has successfully allocated 150 MW of capacity

with the goal of interconnecCon by the end of 2016

Tranche 1
20 MW

$0.17
Tranche 2
February
20 MW
2013
$0.16

July
2013

1) FiT 100: Five tranches over two years

Tranche 3
20 MW
$0.15
March
2014

Tranche 4
15 MW
$0.14
August
2014

Tranche 5
25 MW
$0.13
March
2015

2) FiT 50: Fiiy MW bundled with out-of-basin solar

Contracts have been awarded

Note: Tranche 4 released 15 MW and Tranche 5 released 25 MW

Benets of the allocated 150 MW of

in-basin solar
Over 3,300 job years created
$562.5 million invested into Los Angeles
Nearly 4 million MWh of clean local
energy generated
2.6 million metric tons of avoided CO2e
A half million cars removed from Los Angeles roads
Over 240,000 homes powered

Private industry has responded posiCvely:

Program is oversubscribed by 238%
72 MW

360% over-
subscripCon

80
70

Capacity (MW)

60
50

50 MW

250% over-
subscripCon

43 MW

215% over-
subscripCon

40
30
20

14 MW

7% under-
subscripCon

Goal

10
0

Tranche 1

Tranche 2

Tranche 3

Tranche 4

Oered Feb. 13
$0.17 per kWh

Oered July 13
$0.16 per kWh

Oered March 14
$0.15 per kWh

Oered Aug. 14
$0.14 per kWh

Note: In Tranche 4, large projects were over-subscribed. Small projects were undersubscribed by 94%.

LADWP execuCng FiT contracts more

quickly
450
400

Tranche 1

Median Wait Time (days)

350

Total wait Cme:

425 days

300
250

Tranche 2

200
150
100
50
0

Total wait Cme:

254 days

Tranche 3

Total wait Cme:

182 days

However, several improvements are

needed

40
50
60
Program Capacity (MW)

70

80

Tranche 5
March 15

Tranche 4
August 14

30

Tranche 3
March 14

20

Tranche 2
July 13

10

Tranche 1
February 13

8.1 MW

6.5 MW

So far, only 6.5 MW of

the released 100 MW have been built with
another 8.1 MW contracted





90

100

AYriCon rates have been high

35

30

Capacity Lost (MW)

25

61% of
applicaCons
drop out

52% of
applicaCons
drop out
41% of
applicaCons
drop out

20

15

10

20% of
applicaCons
drop out

Tranche 1

Tranche 2

Tranche 3

Tranche 4

and LADWP will need to interconnect over 4 MW

per month to achieve interconnecCon goals
2016 Goal

100
90
Contracted Capacity (MW)

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
500% Increase in SOPPA ExecuCon

10

Business as Usual

LADWPs current interconnecCon pace is 271 kW per month

Note: Based on rate of SOPPA execuCons

FiT does advance solar related equity goals

40% of all installed or acCve
capacity falls within equity hot
spots
Training programs which
frequently target less
advantaged workers generally
in or near these opportunity
areas

Equity Hot Spots are dened as

census tracts in:

3 of household income and
1
BoYom /3 high school graduaCon rate and
Top 1/3 unemployment rate and/or
Top 10% CalEnviroScreen
BoYom 1/

When it works . . .
PermaCitys Forever 21 Project

5.1 MW (Net Metering + FiT)

Project in Lincoln Heights
Local hiring from programs training
disadvantaged workers
UClized racking
system manu-
factured locally &
invented by
PermaCity

And how could it do more?

Maximize the connecCon between high-need
communiCes, equity opportuniCes and the
FiT through codied programs and incenCves

Examples:
PrioriCze solar equity projects
and incenCvize hiring
disadvantaged workers

Work with training programs

to beYer arCculate and
develop career pathways

And how could it leverage more?

CalEnviroScreen is designed to
distribute Cap and Trade
proceeds clear overlap with
equity hot spots
A share of S.B. 535 Investment
Funds can be used for energy
eciency goals, with priority for
low-income mulC-family units

RecommendaCons
1.

Ask for bolstered stang plan on which LADWP

reports quarterly in order to create capacity and
insCtuConal knowledge

On January 2013, LADWP approved a 150 MW FiT program and requested

30 FTE from the Board of Commissioners. As of today, only 3 FTE are

dedicated to the FiT as well as consulCng assistance (LADWP Board
TransmiYal, 2013).

2.

Call on Board to ask LADWP Sta for a waitlist

management plan including strategy to review and
prioriCze waitlisted projects based on:
Quality of applicaCon
Projects in solar equity hot spots
Economic development opportuniCes

Hiring from high need areas/disadvantaged workers

RecommendaCons
3.

Review Expanded FiT proposal based on

lessons learned from FiT 100

Evaluate pricing, waitlist management, recruitment, technical

assistance and other program features

4. AcCvely encourage linkages to less

advantaged workers

5.

Hiring credits for employing workers from high need areas/

disadvantaged workers; arCculate Prop. 47 opportunity;
facilitate smaller projects; measure equity on Mayors
dashboard

Seek advice of LADWP and other

stakeholders on addiConal improvements

Other announcements:
A new tool from the LABC InsCtute
Online resource to idenCfy potenCal sites
for rooiop solar installaCons
Includes nearly 8,000 properCes
Users can sort by:

Access at hYp://solar.labcinsCtute.org

ZIP code
City council district
Property owner
Property use
System size

Thank you
J.R. DeShazo
deshazo@ucla.edu

Manuel Pastor
mpastor@usc.edu

Sources and AssumpCons

All FiT analysis based on Current FiT Review Priority List released March
5, 2015
Direct investment assumes $4.56 per waY for NEM, and $3.23 per waY for
FiT and community solar
Also includes a 5% annual decrease in cost per waY and a 5% discount rate

Equity hotspots include census tracts in boYom third of household income

AND boYom third of high school graduaCon rates AND top third of
unemployment AND/OR top 10% CalEnviroScreen score
See next slides for job year assumpCons

Job Years Created for Large Projects

AssumpCons

Direct Jobs MulCpliers

BOS components

FTE per MW
3.0

System integraCon

2.8

InstallaCon

2.1

Annual O&M

0.4

UClity network upgrade

1.5

Program administraCon

1.5

Total direct jobs

11.3

Note: Does not include wafer, cell and module job creaCon
Source: Navigant, 2008

Indirect Job MulCpliers

Manufacturing
ConstrucCon
Total indirect jobs

FTE per MW
4.20
2.45
6.65

Note: Manufacturing is BOS * 1.4; ConstrucCon is system integraCon and installaCon * 0.5
Source: NaConal Renewable Energy Laboratory

Job Years Created for Small Projects

AssumpCons

Direct Jobs MulCpliers

BOS components

FTE per MW
3.0

System integraCon

7.8

InstallaCon

9.2

Annual O&M

0.3

UClity network upgrade

1.5

Program administraCon

1.5

Total direct jobs

23.3

Note: Does not include wafer, cell and module job creaCon
Source: Navigant, 2008

Indirect Job MulCpliers

Manufacturing
ConstrucCon
Total indirect jobs

FTE per MW
4.2
8.5
12.7

Note: Manufacturing is BOS * 1.4; ConstrucCon is system integraCon and installaCon * 0.5
Source: NaConal Renewable Energy Laboratory