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Review Paper
1. Introduction
Increased concentration of greenhouse gases is expected to alter the radiative balance of atmosphere, causing increases in temperature and changes in precipitation
patterns and other climatic variables (Houghton et al., 1990). One of the most
important impacts on society of future climatic changes will be changes in regional water availability. Such hydrologic changes will affect nearly every aspect
of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control, municipal and industrial water supply, and fish and wildlife management. For
example, larger reservoir spillways and drainage waterways will be required where
runoff is expected to increase, and higher water supply storage needed where runoff
is expected to decrease. The tremendous importance of water in both society and
nature underscores the necessity of understanding how a change in global climate
could affect regional water supplies.
Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed
to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic change. While
GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric spatial scales
and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system, they are
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GCMs, of which the first account dates back to Phillips (1956), were initially
developed to simulate average, synoptic-scale (i.e., 104 106 km2 spatial scale),
atmospheric circulation patterns for specified external forcing conditions. Since
then, various atmospheric GCMs were conceptually designed to simulate average,
large-scale, atmospheric circulation (e.g., Holton, 1992). During the last 20 yr
or so, GCMs have been used to simulate climatic sensitivity to increased carbon
dioxide concentrations and other important parameters, and to predict future climatic change. Some of the leading GCMs in common use today are: the Canadian
Climate Center (CCC) model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL)
model, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) model, the National Center
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for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model, the Oregon State University (OSU)
model, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) model.
General circulation models, the only available tool for detailed modeling of
future climate evolution, are not well suited for answering the question for primary
interest to hydrologists concerning regional-scale hydrologic variability. As GCMs
operate on large spatial scale, and, furthermore, as the GCM-simulated temporal
resolution corresponds to monthly averages at best, the direct usefulness of GCM
output in impact studies and other applications is limited. The present-day free
troposphere is modeled relatively well by coarse GCMs, whereas local or even
regional characteristics of surface or near-surface climate variables, their variability
and the likelihood of extreme events cannot be obtained directly from GCMs. The
same is true in the case of climate change experiments with GCMs. Embedding
schemes linking GCMs to meteorologic and hydrologic models resolved at finer
scales have been proposed and implemented. This is the state-of-the-art approach
to bridge the gap between coarse resolution GCMs and hydrologic modeling at the
river basin scale.
2.2.
The concept of using regional hydrologic models for assessing the impacts of climatic change has several attractive characteristics (Glecik, 1986; Schulze, 1997).
First, models tested for different climatic/physiographic conditions, as well as models structured for use at various spatial scales and dominant process representations,
are readily available. This permits flexibility in identifying and choosing the most
appropriate approach to evaluate any specific region. Second, hydrologic models
can be tailored to fit the characteristics of available data. GCM-derived climate
perturbations (at different levels of downscaling) can be used as model input. A
variety of responses to climate change scenarios can hence be modelled. Third,
regional-scale hydrologic models are considerably easier to manipulate than general circulation models. Fourth, such regional models can be used to evaluate the
sensitivity of specific watersheds to both hypothetical changes in climate and to
changes predicted by large-scale GCMs. And finally, methods that can incorporate both detailed regional hydrologic characteristics and output from large-scale
GCMs will be well situated to take advantage of continuing improvements in the
resolution, regional geography, and hydrology of global climate models.
The choice of a model for a particular case study depends on many factors
(Gleick, 1986), while the study purpose, model and data availability have been the
dominant ones (Ng and Marsalek, 1992; Xu, 1999). For example, for assessing
water resources management on a regional scale, monthly rainfall-runoff (water
balance) models were found useful for identifying hydrologic consequences of
changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic variables (e.g., Gleick,
1986; Schaake and Liu, 1989; Mimikou et al., 1991; Arnell, 1992; Xu and Halldin,
1997; Xu and Singh, 1998). For detailed assessments of surface flow, conceptual
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lumped-parameter models are used. One of the more frequently used models in this
group is the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (Burnash et al., 1973).
This model has been used by many researchers in the United States for studying
the impact of climate change (e.g., Nemec and Schaake, 1982; Gleick, 1987; Lettenmaier and Gan, 1990; Schaake, 1990; Nash and Gleick, 1991; Cooley, 1990).
Panagoulia (1992) used the same model to assess the effects of climate change on
a basin in central Greece. The HBV model (Bergstrm, 1976) is widely used in
Nordic countries as a tool to assess the climate change effects (e.g., Vehvilinen
and Lohvansuu, 1991; Saelthun, 1996). Several other models having a similar
structure to the above mentioned two models, but with different process conceptualisations, have been used to assess the effect of climate change on many regions
of the globe (see also Leaveley, 1994). For simulation of spatial patterns of hydrologic response within a basin, process-based distributed-parameter models are
needed (Beven, 1989; Thomsen, 1990; Running and Nemani, 1991; Bathurst and
OConnell, 1992). For estimating changes in the average annual runoff for different climate change scenarios simple empirical and regression models were used.
Examples include Revelle and Waggoner (1983) in the United States, and Arnell
and Reynard (1989) in the U.K.
It is fair to say that all kinds of models find their usefulness in different applications. The models that are complex in terms of structure and input requirements
could be expected to provide adequate results for a wide range of applications; the
more simple models which have smaller range of applications can give adequate
results at greatly reduced cost, provided that the objective function is suitable. The
distinction between simple and physically-based distributed-parameter models is
not only one of lesser or greater sophistication, but also intimately bound up with
the purposes for which such models are to be used. Thus, choosing a suitable model
is equivalent to distinguishing the situation between when simple models can be
used and when complex model must be used.
2.3.
While the atmospheric components of the GCMs are often very sophisticated (dividing the atmosphere into many layers), Kite et al. (1994) has shown that the
land-phase parameterizations in current GCMs do not agree on predictions of most
hydrological variables, even when all atmospheric forcings are identical. Many
gaps in the relationship between hydrologic modeling and climate modeling exist.
The gaps shown in Table I will be discussed in the following sections, while other
hydrologists might consider other views more appropriate to discuss. It is hoped
that all views will be discussed in the literature so that a significant improvement
in the hydrologic component of climate models will be achieved.
Gap 1: The spatial and temporal scale mismatches between GCMs ability and
hydrology need: General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary tools today
to study and estimate the nature of climate change. Based on the physical laws for
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Table I. Some existing gaps between GCMs ability and hydrology need
Better simulated
Less-well simulated
Spatial scales
Mismatch
Global
500500 km
Regional
5050 km
Local
050 km
Temporal scales
Mismatch
Mean annual
and seasonal
Mean monthly
Mean daily
Vertical scale
Mismatch
500 hPa
800 hPa
Earth surface
Working variables
Mismatch
Wind
Temperature
Air pressure
Cloudiness
Precipitation
Humidity
Evapotranspiration
Runoff
Soil moisture
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ing up. To circumvent the problems and narrow the gaps between GCMs ability
and hydrology needs, various methodologies have been developed during the last
20 yr.
(a) Dynamic downscaling (nesting) approaches for generating high-resolution meteorological inputs and narrowing gap 1.
(b) Statistical downscaling approaches for simulating local-scale surface variables
based on large-scale free tropospheric variables and/or surface patterns and for
narrowing gaps 1 and 2.
(c) Macroscale hydrological modeling approaches for narrowing gap 3, i.e., for
correcting perceived weaknesses in the representation of hydrological processes in GCMs.
(d) Hypothetical scenarios have been used as input to hydrological models to show
the sensitivity to climate change within a reasonable interval.
3.0.1. Area (a): Dynamic Downscaling
Dynamical downscaling has been attempted with three approaches (Rummukainen,
1997): (1) running a regional scale limited area model with the coarse GCM data as
geographical or spectral boundary conditions; (2) performing global-scale experiments with high-resolution AGCMs (atmosphere GCMs), with coarse GCM data as
initial (and partially also boundary) conditions; and (3) use of a variable-resolution
global model (with the highest resolution over the area of interest).
The goal of dynamic downscaling, i.e., to extract local-scale information from
large-scale GCM data, is achieved by developing and using the limited area models
(LAMs) or regional climate models (RCMs). Regional climate models (RCMs)
have recently been developed that can attain horizontal resolution on the order of
tens of kilometres, over selected areas of interest. They have been applied with
relative success to numerous regions (e.g., Giorgi, 1990; Giorgi and Mearns, 1991;
Giorgi et al., 1990, 1994; Jones et al., 1995; Jenkins and Barron, 1997). Compared
with GCMs the resolution of these RCMs is much closer to that of landscape-scale
hydrologic models (LSHMs) and makes coupling of RCMs and LSHMs potentially
suitable for evaluating the effects of hydrologic systems. Coupling between the
scales can be one way (e.g., Leavesley et al., 1992; Hostetler and Giorgi, 1993) or
bi-directional (e.g., Giorgi and Mearns, 1991; Resso and Zack, 1994).
The main shortcomings of the dynamic modeling include that RCMs still require considerable computing resources and are as expensive to run as a global
GCM; these models still cannot meet the needs of spatially explicit models of
ecosystems or hydrological systems, there will remain the need to downscale the
results from such models to individual sites or localities for impact studies (Wilby
and Wigley, 1997).
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The model should be applied either to every sub-basin in the spatial domain or
on a regular grid.
Runoff must be routed from the point of generation (the fundamental unit)
through the spatial domain along the river network.
Two approaches have been used in the development of a macromodel. First, Topdown treats each of the fundamental units as a single lumped catchment, and applies to each of them a simple conceptual hydrological model (e.g., Korzun, 1978;
Vrsmarty et al., 1989; Vrsmarty and Moore, 1991; Dumeniel and Todini,
1992; Liston et al., 1994; Sausen et al., 1994). Second, Bottom-up identifies
representative hydrological areas and applies highly-detailed physically-based hydrological models, then aggregates upwards to all catchments or fundamental units
in a large area (e.g., the Institute of Hydrology macromodel, Arnell, 1993; Kite et
al., 1994).
The results of these studies showed that coupling macromodels with the GCM
produces a better representation of the recorded flow regime than GCMs predictions of runoff for worlds large river basins.
3.0.4. Area (d): Use of Hypothetical Scenarios
Ideally, the climate simulations from the GCMs could be used directly to drive
hydrologic models, which in turn could be used to evaluate hydrologic and water
resources effects of climate change. The issue is complicated, as discussed above,
by the incompatibility of space (and, to a lesser extent, time) scales between hydrologic processes and GCMs. More importantly, climate models, including the better
parameterised ones (GCMs), give different values of climate variables changes and
so do not provide a single reliable estimate that could be advanced as a deterministic forecast for hydrological planning. Accordingly, methods of simple alteration
of the present conditions are widely used by hydrologists. Various hypothetical
climate change scenarios have been adopted and climate predictions for double
CO2 conditions have become a standard (e.g., Loaiciga et al., 1996).
The general procedure for estimating the impacts of hypothetical climate change
on hydrological behaviour has the following stages: First, determine the parameters
of a hydrological model in the study catchment using current climatic inputs and
observed river flows for model validation. Second, perturb the historical time series
of climatic data according to some climate change scenarios (typically, for temperature by adding 1T = +1, +2, +4; and for precipitation by multiplying the values
by (1 + 1P /100)). Third, simulate the hydrological characteristics of the catchment under the perturbed climate using the calibrated hydrological model. Fourth,
compare the model simulations of the current and possible future hydrological
characteristics.
There are a great number of studies that use such altered time series to assess possible effects of climate change. The distinguishing characteristics of some
studies are summarised in Xu (1999).
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inappropriate spatial and temporal scales are necessary and are applicable to
progress at all scales (Klemes, 1986).
Acknowledgements
This work was partially financed by NFR (Swedish Natural Science Research
Council) and SWECLIM (Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme).
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