quart

er
winte
2004 r

year

sprin
g

product
ion

productio
n+id

90

184

85

179

four
quar
ter
total

709
sum
mer

56

102

winte
2005 r

115

sprin
g

89

sum
mer

61

fall

110

winte
2006 r

165

sprin
g

110

98

186.7
5

0.979
92

194

0.798
969

202.8
75

1.005
545

210.1
25

1.232
6

232

0.879
31

253.7
5

0.756
65

249.
25

192
1033

1.128
967

214.
75

204
997

sum
mer

185.1
25

205.
5

259
859

1.065
217

200.
25

204
822

184

187.
75

155
801

0.831
601

185.
75

183
751

180.3
75

184.
5

209
743

specif
c
seaso
nal
index

183.
5

196
738

center
ed
movin
g
avera
ge

177.
25

150
734

fall

four
quart
er
movi
ng
aver
age

258.

25
fall

248

342
1065

winte
2007 r

201

sprin
g

142

sum
mer

110

fall

274

251

sprin
g

165

sum
mer

125

fall

305

241

158

sum
mer

132

fall

299

393

1.166
033

301.6
25

0.858
682

304.2
5

0.719
803

302.1
25

1.320
645

302.1
25

1.108
813

302.2
5

0.833
747

304.5

0.742
2

310.8
75

1.264
174

301.
5

226
1230

295.8
75

303

252
1206

1.264
062

301.
25

335
1212

sprin
g

291.1
25

303

399
1205

winte
2009 r

0.723
404

305.
5

219
1212

282

297.
75

259
1222

0.866
055

294

345
1191

272.5

288.
25

368
1176

winte
2008 r

1.101
774

275.
75

204
1153

267.7
5
269.
25

236
1103

1.304
099

266.
25

295
1077

262.2
5

307.
5

1257
winte
2010 r

265

359
1267

sprin
g

185

142

fall

333

282

sprin
g

175

157

fall

350

winte
2012 r

290

201

sum
mer

187

281

fall
400
494
Seasonal indexes for each quarter
quarte
r
year

winter

spring

summ
er

fall

328.8
75

1.143
292

332.8
75

0.808
111

336

0.747
024

340.2
5

1.304
923

347.2
5

1.105
832

357.2
5

0.825
752

351

295
1454

1.300
838

343.
5

384
1404

sprin
g

328.2
5

337

444
1374

0.720
886

335

251
1348

327.3
75

330.
75

269
1340

sum
mer

0.869
159

327

376
1323

321

329.
5

427
1308

winte
2011 r

1.137
876

325.
25

236
1318

315.5
316.
75

279
1301

sum
mer

314.
25

363.
5

2004
1.12896
691
1.23259
964
1.10177
404
1.16603
295
1.10881
258
1.13787
639
1.14329
152
1.10583
153

0.979
92
0.879
31
0.866
055
0.858
682
0.833
747
0.869
159
0.808
111
0.825
752

0.798
969
0.756
65
0.723
404
0.719
803
0.742
2
0.720
886
0.747
024

1.005
545
1.304
099
1.264
062
1.320
645
1.264
174
1.300
838
1.304
923

9.12518
558
1.14064
mean
82
adjust 1.21591
ed
548
121.591
index
548
Interpretation:

6.920
736
0.865
092
0.922
176
92.21
764

5.208
936
0.651
117
0.694
082
69.40
819

8.764
286
1.095
536
1.167
826
116.7
826

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

total

3.752
393
4

Winter:we have the index number for winter is 121.591.so, we can say that the
index number for winter quarter is 21.591% higher than the annual average
Spring:
Summer:
Fall:
3)b:forcast the data

year

quarter

producti
on

2004 winter

90

spring

85

production+
id

seasona
l index
1.21591
184
5
0.92217
179
6

desoniliz
ed
productio
n

coded quarter

151.3263

194.106

summer

56

150

102

196

2005 winter

115

209

spring

89

183

summer

61

155

110

204

2006 winter

165

259

spring

110

204

98

192

248

342

2007 winter

201

295

spring

142

236

summer

110

204

fall

274

368

2008 winter

251

345

spring

165

259

summer

125

219

fall

305

399

2009 winter

241

335

spring

158

252

summer

132

226

fall

299

393

265

359

185
142

279
236

fall

fall

summer
fall

2010 winter
spring
summer

0.69408
2
1.16782
6
1.21591
5
0.92217
6
0.69408
2
1.16782
6
1.21591
5
0.92217
6
0.69408
2
1.16782
6
1.21591
5
0.92217
6
0.69408
2
1.16782
6
1.21591
5
0.92217
6
0.69408
2
1.16782
6
1.21591
5
0.92217
6
0.69408
2
1.16782
6
1.21591
5
0.92217
6
0.69408

216.1128

167.8332

171.8869

198.4436

223.3166

174.6835

213.0082

221.2158

10

276.6244

11

292.8518

12

242.6155

13

255.9163

14

293.9134

15

315.1154

16

283.7368

17

280.8573

18

315.5247

19

341.6604

20

275.5126

21

273.2666

22

325.61

23

336.5227

24

295.2508

25

302.5452
340.0175

26
27

fall

333

427

2011 winter

282

376

spring

175

269

summer

157

251

fall

350

444

2012 winter

290

384

spring

201

295

summer

187

281

400

494

fall
SUMMARY OUTPUT

2
1.16782
6
1.21591
5
0.92217
6
0.69408
2
1.16782
6
1.21591
5
0.92217
6
0.69408
2
1.16782
6

365.6366

28

309.232

29

291.7012

30

361.6288

31

380.1936

32

315.8114

33

319.8954

34

404.8513

35

423.0081

36

Regression
Statistics
0.89202
Multiple R
8
0.79571
R Square
4
Adjusted
0.78970
R Square
6
Standard 31.3262
Error
7
Observati
ons
36
ANOVA
df

Residual

34

Total

35

SS
129961
.9
33365.
41
163327
.3

Coeffici
ents
174.984

Standa
rd
Error
10.663

Regressio
n

Intercept

MS
12996
1.9
981.3
355

t Stat
16.40

F
132.4
337

Signific
ance F
2.84E13

Pvalue
1E-17

Lower
95%
153.313

Upper
95%
196.6

Lower
95.0
Upper
%
95.0%
153.3 196.6

1
5
963
3
55
133
55
X
0.5025 11.50 2.84E- 4.76240
6.805 4.762 6.805
Variable 1 5.78379
89
798
13
5
174
405
174
Quarterly projection for the production of fne lumber of pine lumber in 2019:

year

quarter

2019 winter

code
d
quart
er
61

spring
summe
r

62

fall

64

63

estimat
ed
seaso
produnt nal
ion
index
174101
1.215
94
915
533.57
0.922
91
176
539.36
0.694
29
082
545.14
1.167
67
826

quarterl
y
project
ed
product
ion
211693
24
492.05
4
374.36
2
636.63
66