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TheBattleforTikritEntersitsFinalHour|Stratfor

The Battle for Tikrit Enters its Final Hour

Analysis MARCH25,2015|18:43GMT Print TextSize

SmokebillowsoverTikritastheoffensivetoretakethecityfromIslamicStatefightersentersitsfinalstages,
March30.(AHMADALRUBAYE/AFP/GettyImages)

Summary
Editor'sNote:ThefollowingreportconsolidatessomeofStratfor'smostrecentanalysesontheTikrit
offensive,updatedinreversechronologicalorder.Foranoverviewoftheoffensiveitself,readour
foundationalanalysisthebattleforTikritrevealsdeepertruths.
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Analysis
March 26 - March 31
AlthoughaMarch31announcementbyIraqiPrimeMinisterHaideralAbadithatTikritisrecapturedmay
provepremature,itappearsthattheoperationisinitsfinalstagesandthatBaghdadhasenoughcombat
powertocompletethepainstakingclearanceofIslamicStatefightersfromthecity.
DespitesomesuccessoflimitedbombingmissionsagainstfixedIslamicStatepositionscarriedoutbyU.S.
aircraftoverTikrit,WesterninvolvementprovedunpopularwithShiitemilitiascontributingtotheoffensive.
FollowingtheannouncementofWashington'sparticipationattheinvitationoftheIraqigovernment,anumber
ofShiitemilitiasincludingtheHezbollahBrigadessaidtheyweresuspendingoperations.Despiteindignation
fromtheShiitemilitiacamp,theairsupportcameatacrucialtimeforthestalledoffensive.Cutoff,duginand
desperate,theremainingIslamicStatefightersinTikrithadsaturatedeveryapproachroutewithimprovised
explosivedevicesandsniperfire.Hopingtoexactaseveretollontheattackingforces,Tikrit'slastdefenders
succeededinbluntingtheinitiallysuccessfulthrusttoclearthecityandsurroundingareas.

AswellaspinpointingtheremainingIslamicStatestrongpoints,theairstrikescoordinatedthroughtheJoint
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OperationCenterinBaghdademployedadvancedprecisionguidedmunitionstoreducetheriskofnon
combatantcasualties.Precisionlethalityisanimportantfactor,especiallyconsideringthatIslamicState
positionsareinplacessuchasSaddamHussein'spalacecomplex,wellconstructedandeasilydefendable.
AlAbadi'sMarch26visittoTikritmayhavebeenanattempttoencouragedespondentmilitiastocontinue
theirparticipation.OnMarch27aspokesmanforthePopularCrowdmilitiarepeatedthestatementthatthe
groupisastateinstitutionand,assuch,subjecttotheorderofIraqi'sprimeminister.
Washington'sinvolvementinanattackintendedtobeledbyIraqisecurityforces(supportedbyIranian
advisorsandsecularmilitias)hasangeredsome,thinningtheranksofanalreadydepletedforce.Yet,the
apparentlylimiteddurationoftheairstrikesofferstheShiitemilitiasawaybackin.AsofMarch30onlyone
pieceofordnancehadbeendroppedfromaU.S.aircraft,leadingsomegroupstoconsiderrejoiningthe
offensive.Whilethecompleteclearanceofthecitymayyettakedays,itseemsasthoughvictoryisallbut
assuredforBaghdadinitsendeavortofreeTikritfromtheIslamicState.

March 25
U.S.ledcoalitionaircrafthavecarriedoutoffensiveoperationsagainstIslamicStatepositionsincentralTikrit
undercoverofdarkness.AseniorU.S.officialsaidthattheIraqigovernmentinBaghdadhadspecifically
requestedU.S.airpowertoreignitethestalledoffensivetouproottheremainingIslamicStatepositionsin
Tikrit.TheU.S.AirForcebegansurveillancemissionsoverTikritfromMarch20,buthadavoidedflying
combatmissionsinlocationswhereIranianadvisersorShiitemilitiaswereoperating.Thisisnownolonger
thecase.
ItislikelythatintelligencecollectedfromreconnaissanceflightsidentifiedknownIslamicStatepositionsin
Tikrit,whichU.S.ledcoalitionaircraftcanstrikewithprecision.U.S.forceswillhavelittlechoicebutto
increasethelevelofcooperationwithIranianelementsinIraqastheyoperateincloserproximity.Although
theinvolvementofthecoalitionwillinvigoratethestalledassaultonremainingIslamicStatestrongpoints,the
UnitedStatescouldbecriticizedforprovidingperceiveddirectassistancetosectarianShiiteforceson
theground.
Althoughtheairstrikescouldbelimitedinscope,engaginghighvaluetargetsinthecity,theyarelikelythe
openingstagesofabroaderairoffensiveinsupportofthesecurityforcesamassedroundTikrit.Any
disagreementbetweenBaghdad'sandTehran'sforcesonthegroundoverwhetherdirectU.S.supportis
requiredcouldunderminethecohesionbetweenIraqisecurityforcesandIranianandShiiteelements.Ifthe
cooperationbetweentheU.S.ledcoalition,BaghdadandTehranworks,however,itcouldbecomeaforce
compositionmodelforoperationsagainstIslamicStateforceselsewhereinIraqandSyria.

March 19-24
ProgressinthebattleforTikritremainsstagnantastheoperationentersitsfourthweek.IslamicStates
fightersareholedupinthecenterofthecity,resistingattemptstodisplacethem.TheIraqisecurityforces
supportedbyIranianadvisers,ShiitemilitiasandsomeSunnitribalfightershavesustainedsignificant
casualtiesduringattemptstopenetrateandcleartheIslamicStatepositions.Mostlyoralmostcompletelycut
offfromtheirsupplylines,theIslamicStateelementsinTikritarerelyingonstockpiledammunitionand
supplies,andtheyhavesurroundedthemselvesbyaringofimprovisedexplosivedevices.
TheU.S.ledcoalition'saircampaigncontinuestoengageIslamicStatepositionsinIraq,butsofar,ithas
avoidedareaswhereIranianadvisersorShiitemilitiasareoperating,namelySalahuddinandDiyala
provinces.ThisislargelybecauseofthepoliticaldynamicbetweenTehranandWashington.Anotherreason
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isthatIranissupportingIraqisecurityforcesinTikritwhiletheUnitedStateshasagreedtosupportthe
offensivetoretakeMosul,abiggerandmorecomplexoperation.However,recentreportingindicatesthat
elementsoftheIraqiarmyaredissatisfiedwiththestalledoffensiveinTikritandfeelthatU.S.ledcloseair
supportwithprecisionguidedweaponsisthekeytouprootingtheremainingIslamicStatefightersinthecity's
center.
ThecallforsuchamovewasstronglyopposedbyHadialAmeri,theheadoftheBadrOrganization,the
successortotheBadrBrigades.AlAmeriisveryclosetothecommanderoftheoverseasoperationsarmof
theIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorps,Maj.Gen.QassemSuleimani.Iran'sQudsforcehasbeenheavily
involvedinfightingagainsttheIslamicStateinIraq,andSuleimanihaspersonallyadoptedacoordinatingrole
ontheground.TehranhasbeenquietaboutthesuggestionofU.S.ledaircraftflyingmissionsin
theTikritoperation.Likewise,itcommentedlittlewhentheU.S.AirForcesaidithasbeenconducting
reconnaissanceflightsoverTikritsinceMarch21andissupplyingIraqisecurityforceswithintelligence.
ItremainstobeseenwhethertheIraqiarmywillofficiallyrequestcloseairsupportfromtheU.S.ledcoalition,
andevenifitdoes,whetherWashingtonwillagreetoprovideit.IfcoalitionairstrikesdotargetTikrit,however,
importantquestionsariseoverhowtheUnitedStatesandIransharethesamebattlespace.WeretheUnited
StatestobeginaircombatmissionsagainstIslamicStatepositionsinTikrit,itwouldhavetocoordinate
carefullywithIranatthemilitaryandpoliticallevels,andseriousdeconflictionwouldhavetotakeplaceonthe
ground,especiallyiftheUnitedStatesdeployedairtrafficcontrolpersonnel.
FromtheIranianperspective,precisionbombingisnotnecessarilyabadthing,evenifitcomesfroma
traditionaladversary.NotonlycouldadvancedairsupportpreventtheTikritoffensivefromstallingcompletely,
apotentialsourceofembarrassmentforIran,itcouldalsospeedupthefallofcity.Anotherimportantfactoris
thatbriningintheUnitedStatescouldhelpIrandeflectblameshouldmisguidedordnancefallonSunnior
Shiitepopulations.However,thepossibilityofciviliancasualtiesalonemaybeenoughtodeterthecoalition,
whichisunwillingtorisknoncombatantdeaths.

March 17-18
IraqisecurityforcessurroundingTikritcontinuetoreceivereinforcementsaheadofthefinalphaseofthe
operationtoclearIslamicStatefightersfromtheheartofthecity.Thecalltobattlehasattractedfightersfrom
popularvolunteergroupsincludingtheBadrOrganization,theLeagueoftheRighteous,thePeaceBrigades
andtheiraffiliates.SeniorIraqiarmysourcesarekeentoemphasizethatmanyofthemilitiashaveexperience
fightinginbuiltupareasandthattheTikritoperationasawholehasplayedouttoalargelypredetermined
timeline.Infact,thesuccessofthesecurityforces,heavilysupportedbyIran,hassofarexceeded
expectations.
However,themostdifficultphaseisyettocome.Whilecombatengineersendeavortocleartheapproaches
toTikrit,removingimprovisedandconventionalexplosives,aconcertedbombingcampaignissofteningup
IslamicStatepositionsindowntownTikrit.Acombinationoflightandheavyartillery,fixedwingaircraft,attack
helicoptersandartilleryrocketscontinuetopoundtargetsinsidethecity.
FollowinguponreportsthatIransentadvancedmissilesystemstoSalahuddinprovince,U.S.militaryadvisers
expressedconcernabouttheuseofIranianheavyweaponsinthefightagainsttheIslamicState,giventheir
indiscriminatenatureandpotency.TheShiitemilitiasareincreasinglywellequippedwithweaponsand
materielsuppliedbyTehran.AhmadalAsadi,aspokespersonforthePeople'sMobilizationForces,saidthat
Tehranhadsuppliedweaponsandammunition"withoutlimitorconditions."Previously,U.S.StateDepartment
spokeswomanJenPsakiwarnedthattheunselectiveuseofordnancecouldexacerbatesectariantensionson
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theground.
TheprospectofreprisalkillingsagainstIslamicStatesfightersandthosebelievedtohaveaidedthemisvery
real,exacerbatedbythediscoveryofatleastfourmassgraves,unearthedinthevicinityofAlbuAjeelvillage,
eastofTikrit.TheremainsarethoughttobelongtoShiitefighters,fromnearbyContingencyOperatingBase
Speicher,reportedlykilledintheIslamicStateassaultinJunethatforcedtheIraqiarmytowithdraw.Around
1,700traineeswerebilletedinthecontingencyoperatingbasealsoknownasSpykerAirBaseatthe
time.
AfurtherconcernfortheUnitedStatesandcoalitionforcesingeneraliswhathappenswhentheIslamicState
hasbeenoustedfromitsstrongholds.ThefirstandsecondGulfWarshighlightedtheproblemsthatcanarise
inIraqwhenabreakdowninorderoccursinthewakeofintensefighting.WellarmedShiitemilitiasdirectly
contributetothefightagainstIslamicStateand,aswellasholdingagrudgeagainstanySunnistheysuspect
ofcollusion,willbewellplacedtoexploitanypowervacuumintheaftermathofmilitaryoperations.Though
leafletsdroppedbyIraqihelicoptershavepromisedanysurrenderingfightersafairandunbiasedtrial,it
remainstobeseenwhetherthatpromisewillbehonored.

The Coalition Focus on Stabilization

TheinauguralmeetingoftheCoalitionStabilizationWorkingGrouptookplaceinBerlinonMarch18.Drawing
fromremarksmadeinBaghdadtwodaysearlier,aspeechbythespecialpresidentialenvoyfortheglobal
coalitiontocountertheIslamicState,JohnAllen,praisedthemembersofthecoalition,highlightingGermany
andtheUnitedArabEmiratesinparticular.Overthecourseoftheaddress,Allenemphasizednotonlythe
fiscalcostoftheendeavorbutalsotherequirementtosynchronizecivilianstabilizationeffortswiththemilitary
operationsthatinevitablyprecedethem.
TheestablishmentofacoalitionsupportedstabilizationtaskforceinBaghdadindicatesanawarenessofthe
problemsassociatedwiththecreationofpowervacuumsinIraq.AllenhighlightedTikritinparticularasan
upcomingcandidateforstabilizationefforts,emphasizingfourkeytenets:theclearanceoftheIslamicState,
thesecurityandpolicingcomponentintheaftermath,therestorationoflocalgovernanceand,finally,the
provisionofessentialservices.
ThenecessityforIraqiforcestoleadthewayineffortsagainsttheIslamicStateillustratesthegeneral
consensusamongthecoalitioncountries:thatwhilethemilitantforcesneedtobeneutralized,thereisno
stomachforthecommittalofsignificantexternalgroundforces.Money,closeairsupport,weaponsandlimited
numbersofadvisersarelikelytoremaintheorderoftheday,especiallyforWesterncountriesthathaveno
desiretobecomeembroiledoncemoreinaMiddleEasterngroundcampaign.

March 14-16
Aftertwoweeksoffairlysteadygainsbysecurityforcesontheground,thebattleforTikritappearstohavehit
astickingpoint.AsStratforpreviouslynoted,themostdifficultpartofanyurbanoperationistheclearance
phasephysicallyrootingtheenemyoutfromeverydefendedareaandhidingplace.Havingsuccessfully
encircledTikrit,theIraqiarmyandShiitemilitias,supportedbyIranianadvisersandsomeSunnitribalfighters,
nowhavetoeliminatetheIslamicStateforcescontainedwithin.
Completelycutoffforanumberofdays,theremainingIslamicStatefightershavewithdrawntoanumberof
defensivepositionsandmaindefendedareasintheheartofTikrit'sdowntown.Anumberofmilitantsarealso
holedupintheSaddamerapalacecomplex,provingdifficulttodislodge.Althoughthesecurityforceshave
numerical,technologicalandlogisticalsuperiority,theextremelyrigorousdefensebyIslamicStatehasmade
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advancingthefinalkilometersslowandcostly.Thousandsofimprovisedexplosivedevicesandconventional
munitionshavebeenseededthroughoutTikrit,defeatingvehiclesanddismountedinfantryalike.IslamicState
sharpshootershavealsotargetedcombatengineersattemptingtoclearthedevices.
TheemploymentofvehicleborneIEDsandsuicidebombersraisesthestakesforthesecurityforces,adding
anotherlayerofthreatandcomplexitytothealreadyhazardousthreedimensionalurbanbattlespace.The
presenceofciviliansisafurthercomplication.SecurityforcesaretryingtomoveTikrit'spopulationawayfrom
thefighting,incurringfurtherdelays.Theriskofcollateraldamageisextremelyhighinbuiltupareas,and
reportsindicatethattheIslamicStateispreventinglocalIraqisfromfleeing,valuingtheiruseashuman
shields.TherearealsobelievedtobeanumberofhighlevelIslamicStatecommanderstrappedinTikritas
well,personnelwhohaveanintelligencevalueifcapturedalive.
Therequirementtobemethodical,preventciviliancasualtiesandleavesomeoftheenemyalivewillbea
serioustestfortheIraqisecurityforces.Itwillalsoputfrontlinepersonnelinextremedanger,whichhas
alreadybeenreflectedinthemountingnumberofsecurityforcedeadandwounded,andthesteadystreamof
reinforcementsandbattlefieldcasualtyreplacementscomingupfromthesouth.
Inadditiontothefrictionontheground,Stratforsourcesindicatethattensionisincreasingatthepoliticallevel,
too.ThetakingofTikritisamajormilestoneinthefightagainsttheIslamicStateandBaghdadcannotafforda
debacle.Also,theIranianmilitaryadviserswhohavebeenprovidingguidanceandsupporttoIraqiforces
haveboastedoftheirabilitytomanageTikritwithoutU.S.ledcoalitionsupport.Asforwardmomentumgrinds
slowerandslower,elementsoftheIraqiarmyarebeginningtoassertthattheprecisionofcoalitionairstrikes
iskeytounlockingTikrit.However,thisisanuntenablepositionforbothWashingtonandTehran.TheUnited
States,alongwithcoalitionpartnersandKurdishpeshmerga,iscommittedtosupportingtheassaultonMosul,
whichisexpectedtobethetruetestofIraqisecurityforces.IranistakingtheleadinTikrit.Itisunlikelyfroma
purelydiplomaticperspectivethateitherIranortheUnitedStateswouldbecontentwithsharingthesame
battlespace,forwhateverreason.
TheU.S.ledcoalitionmaywellbeabletoprovidedecisiveairinterventioninthebattleforTikrit,butnotwhile
theIraniansareinvolved.And,pullingoutissomethingTehranisnotpreparedtodo,notwhileithasitsown
geopoliticalinterestsintheregion.So,fornow,thebattleforTikritisonthevergeofstalling.Forthesecurity
forcestopresshometheadvantagetheyhavegainedthusfar,Baghdadmustacceptthatthebloodiestdays
ofthebattleareyettocome.

March 12-13
TheIslamicStatecontinuestogiveupgroundinTikritafterdaysofintensefighting.TheIraqiarmy,supported
byShiitemilitias,IranianmilitaryadvisersandsomeSunnitribalfighters,isconsolidatingitsposition
aroundcentralTikrit.PocketsofresistanceremaininSaddam'spalaceandoutlyingareas,butthemain
IslamicStateforceislargelycontainedinthecentralbusinessdistrictandindustrialbelt.

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ReportsindicatethattheentireeastbankoftheTigrisRiverisundercontrolofsecurityforcesandthatthe
IslamicState'snorthernsupplyrouteissevered,preventingfurtherreinforcementsorexfiltration.Although
IslamicStatefightershaveconcededterritory,theycontinuetoexactacostontheattackingforcesurban
terrainisaforcemultiplierfordefenders.Aswellasemployingconventionalweaponsandskirmishtactics,
theyaremakingextensiveuseofimprovisedexplosivedevices.
EnteringthebuiltupareaofdowntownTikrit,thesecurityforcesareheavilychanneledandmustexpose
themselvestoboobytraps,murderholesandsniperfireastheybegintheclearanceinearnest.Althoughthe
IraqistatemediaclaimsthathundredsofIslamicStatefightershavebeenkilledsofarinTikrit,thedeathtoll
continuestoriseonthesideofthesecurityforcesaswell.SourcesreportahighnumberofIraqicasualties
beingevacuatedbacktowardBaghdad,withreinforcementsbeingsentforward.Althoughgovernmentbacked
forceshavetheoverwhelmingadvantage,asIslamicStateforcescontractintopositionsthatconcentratetheir
manpower,theymaybeabletoachievelocalparitywithattackingelements.
ThebattleforTikritisenteringitsfinal,bloodystages.Securityforceswillhavetoclearstreetbystreet,
buildingbybuildingandroombyroom,inevitablyincurringcasualtiesastheydoso.FortheremainingIslamic
Statemilitants,theirsisnowafighttothedeath,withdwindlingnumbersandlimitedammunition.The
operationhassofarbeenasuccess,butonewithsignificantcasualtiesonbothsidesandmoretocomein
theimmediatefuture.
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March 11
TheTikritoffensivecontinuestomakeheadway.Althougharmedresistanceislighterthananticipated,the
sheeramountofexplosivedevicesseededalongthemainaxesofadvancehasslowedtheattackingforces.
Nevertheless,IraqisecurityforcesaresolidifyingtheirholdontheAlQadaisahneighborhoodtothenorth.To
thesouth,Tikritgeneralhospitalisingovernmenthands,andfightingcontinuestowrestcontrolofthepalace
complexbuiltbySaddamHusseinonthewestbankoftheTigrisfromtheIslamicState.Accordingto
recentreports,theeastbankoftheriverisalmostentirelyunderthecontrolofsecurityforcesandShiite
militias.

Iraq'sministerofstateforprovincialaffairs,AhmedAbdullahalJubouri,saidtheIslamicStatehasplaced
around6,000IEDsandlandminesinandaroundTikrit.Thethreatfromsuchdevicesisthesingle
largestimpedimenttotheadvanceofgroundforcesintoTikrit.Locatinganddisposingofantipersonneland
antivehicleexplosivesistimeconsumingaswellasinherentlydangerous.
SourcesonthegroundindicatethatIslamicStatefighterscontinuetoleavetheTikritbattlespaceattheirown
riskIraqinewsmediareportedthattheIslamicStateisexecutingsomefleeingfighterstodissuadeother
potentialdeserters.IraqiaviationassetshavealsobeentakingtheirtollonIslamicStateconvoysmoving
betweenTikritandHawija,amilitantbastionnortheastofBeiji,ontheroutetoKirkuk.AswellasusingU.S.
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producedAH64attackhelicopters,theIraqiarmyisdeployingEurocopterEC635T2lighthelicopter
gunships,armedwithheavymachinegunsandunguidedrockets.RussiahassuppliedfourMi35MHindE
troopcarryingattackhelicoptersandthreeMi28Havocattackhelicopterstoaidinthefightagainstthe
IslamicState.

Baghdadiskeentoemphasizetheinclusivenatureoftheoperation,withtheIraqiarmytakingtheleadinthe
fighting,supportedbyShiitemilitiasandaround1,000Sunnifighters,andIranassistingwithmilitaryadvisers
andsomeweaponry.However,theinvolvementoftheIslamicRevolutionaryGuardCorpsinanoffensiveon
IraqisoilhasgeneratedconcerninsomeareasofBaghdad'spoliticalestablishmentaswellasinneighboring
countries:SaudiForeignMinisterPrinceSaudalFaisalaccusedIranoftryingtotakeoverIraqinaMarch5
newsconference.
ThereisalsoconcernamongtheKurdishandSunnicommunitiesinIraqregardingtheconductofpro
governmentShiitemilitias.ThecommunitiesareworriedthatreprisalattacksagainstIslamicStatefighters
mayextendtoanySunniswhowereallegedtohavesupportedorcolludedwithmilitants.Therearealso
concernsthat,havingestablishedsomedegreeoflocalcontrol,Shiitefighterswillbereluctanttorelinquish
theirpower,possiblyfuelingfurthersectarianviolenceinthevacuumofapostIslamicStateIraq.

March 6-10
Iraqiforces,consistingofregulararmyformationsandlocalShiitemilitiasandassistedbyIranianadvisers,
continuetotightenthenoosearoundIslamicStateforcesinTikrit.TheoutlyingtownofalAlamhasbeen
securedtothenortheast.ClosertoTikrititself,thesuburbofalDawrhasbeensecuredtothesouth,theAl
Qadaisahneighborhoodtothenorth,andpartsofAlbuAjeelareinthehandsofBaghdad'sforces.Iraqi
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formationstothewestofTikrithavesecuredtheentirewestside,forcingIslamicStatefighterstowithdraw
backtothecityproper.

SourcesonthegroundreportedthatmissileandartilleryfirehadbeendirectedatIslamicStatestrongholdsin
thecenterofTikrit,whileunconfirmedreportssaidmilitantshadbeenseenfleeingnorthfromTikritandal
AlamtoBeiji,andonwardtoHawija.DespiteeffortstocompletelyencircleTikrit,theIslamicStatehasbeen
abletomaintainasupplylinetothenorth.ThecommanderofIraqiarmyaviation,Gen.HamidalMaliki,drew
attentiontotherateofattritionachievedbyIraqicloseairsupport,whichincludesAH64attackhelicopters
builtandsuppliedbytheUnitedStates.ThegeneralsaidMarch10thatover30vehiclesusedbytheIslamic
StatehadbeendestroyedinandaroundTikritandthatasignificantnumberofcasualtieshadbeeninflicted
onthegroup.

U.S.Gen.MartinDempsey,chairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,metwithIraq'sprimeministeranddefense
ministerinBaghdadonMarch9todiscusstheongoingmilitaryoperationsinSalahuddinandAnbar
provinces.DempseyappearedbeforetheSenateArmedServicesCommitteeinWashingtononMarch3,
callingtheinvolvementofIranianbackedShiitemilitiasinthefightforTikritpositive,aslongastheirpresence
didnotexacerbatetensionswiththeSunnicommunity,somethingthatcouldeasilyderailtheunityof
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Baghdad'sforcesinthefightagainsttheIslamicState.

March 1-5
TheIraqiarmymadegainsinruralareaseastofTikrit,havingestablishedablockingpositiontothewest.By
capturingthesuburbsofalDawrtothesouthandalAlamtothenorth,IslamicStatefightershave
increasinglybeenforcedtofallbacktothecity.Inanattempttoslowadvancingforcesanddisruptairstrikes
fromIraqifixedwingaircraftandattackhelicopters,themilitantssetfiretotheAjiloilfield,creatingmassive
cloudsofsmoke.

ReportscontinuetoindicatethatIraqiattemptstolockdownTikrithavenotbeensuccessful,withIslamic
Statefightersstillpossessinglimitedfreedomofmovement.Sourcesonthegroundclaimthatelementsofthe
IslamicStateleadershipinTikrithavealreadyfledthecity.AlthoughitisunlikelythattheIslamicStatewould
relinquishitsgriponTikritwithoutextractingacostontheattackingforces,theexodusofground
commanderscouldindicateanexpectationthatthecitywillfall.Additionalreports,however,suggestthat
IslamicStateforceshaveabandonedQayyarahAirBase,southofMosul,tofreeupreinforcementsforTikrit.
Thiswouldindicatethemilitantgroupispreparedtostanditsground,orintheworstcase,counterattackin
force.
ImprovisedexplosivedevicesandsniperfireareslowingBaghdad'sforcesandantiIslamicStatemilitias.A
roadsidebombinthesouthernalDawrdistrictkilledthecommanderoftheShiitemilitiaLeagueof
RighteousnessonMarch4,alongwithhisbodyguard.OtherproIraqigovernmentforcesdiscoveredabomb
makingfactoryintheNaouradistrict,recoveringsome40explosivedevicesreadyforuse.
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Aftertighteningtheperimeter,about30,000IraqisoldiersandShiitemilitiafightersarepoisedtoattackthe
citywithaircoverfromrotaryandfixedwingaircraft.Fightingintheurbanenvironmentwillbecostlierforthe
militarybecausethebuiltupterraingivesthedefendingIslamicStateforcesasignificantadvantage.An
estimated28,000civilianshavealreadyfledthecityinanticipationofthecomingassault.

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