Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
1. Find an appropriate discrete data to be analyzed. The data should contain more than 10 pairs of
values.
A study was conducted to determine the effects of sleep deprivation on student's ability to solve
problems. The amount of sleep deprivation varied over 8, 12, 16, 20, and 24 hours without sleep. A
total of ten subjects participated in the study, two at each deprivation levels. After a specified sleep
deprivation period, each subject was administered a set of simple addition problems, and the number
of
errors
was
recorded.
The
following
results
were
obtained:
Number of Errors (y) Number of Hours Without Sleep
http://brainmass.com/statistics/all-topics/155087
HOURS WITHOUT SLEEP(H) = X
8
8
12
12
16
16
20
20
24
24
NUMBER OF ERRORS(E) = Y
8
6
6
10
8
14
14
12
16
12
2. Define the independent and dependent variables. Make a scatter plot of the data. Label the graph
appropriately.
i.
Independent variables Hours without sleep
ii.
Dependent variables Number of errors
NUMBER OF ERRORS(E) = Y
18
16
14
NUMBER OF
ERRORS(E) = Y
12
10
Linear (NUMBER OF
ERRORS(E) = Y)
8
6
4
2
0
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
using a linear equation established using the first two coordinates of the data.
E = F(H) = a + b(H)
8 = a + 8b -------------(1)
6 = a + 8b -------------(2)
a=0,b=0
E = F(H) = 0
ii)
using the least square criterion to determine the line of best fit or regression line.
NUMBER OF ERRORS
(E)
8
H2
H*E
E2
64
64
64
64
48
36
12
144
72
36
12
10
144
120
100
16
256
128
64
16
14
256
224
196
20
14
400
280
196
20
12
400
240
144
24
16
576
384
256
24
12
576
288
144
160
106
2880
1848
1236
b = [ n H*E - E* H ] / [ n H2 ( H)2 ]
= [10 (1848) 106 (160) ] / [10 (2880) (160) 2 ]
= 1520 / 3200
= 0.475
a = ( E b* H ) / n
= ( 106 0.475 * 160 ) / 10
= 30 / 10
=3
E = F(H) = 3 + 0.475H
b) Compare the equations obtained in 3. a) with those found using the LINEST and TRENDLINE
functions of Excel. Explain.
NUMBER OF ERRORS(E) = Y
18
16
14
NUMBER OF
ERRORS(E) = Y
f(x) = 0.48x + 3
R = 0.64
12
10
Linear (NUMBER OF
ERRORS(E) = Y)
8
6
4
2
0
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
4. Do the predicted (least square line) give an accurate estimate for the data? Explain why or why not?
[Hint: Calculate R2 and verify this value using Regression Analysis of Excel Data Analysis Tool .
Interpret.]
HOURS
NUMBER
WITHOUT
OF
SLEEP(H) ERRORS(E)
8
8
8
6
12
6
12
10
16
8
16
14
20
14
20
12
24
16
24
12
160
106
E = 10.6
PREDICTED
VALUE ( E )
y = 0.475x + 3
6.8
6.8
8.7
8.7
10.6
10.6
12.5
12.5
14.4
14.4
106
RESIDUA
L
( E ) - ( E )
1.2
-0.8
-2.7
1.3
-2.6
3.4
1.5
-0.5
1.6
-2.4
0
DEVIATION
DEVIATION
( E - E )2
6.76
21.16
21.16
0.36
6.76
11.56
11.56
1.96
29.16
1.96
112.4
EXPLAINED
DEVIATION
( E - E )2
14.44
14.44
3.61
3.61
0
0
3.61
3.61
14.44
14.44
72.2
R2 = [ ( E - E )2 ] / [ ( E - E )2 ]
= (112.4) / (72.2)
= 1.556
5.
What is the slope of the least squares (best-fit) line? Interpret the slope.
i)
Slope = 0.475
On average, for any hour increase in sleep deprivation, a students error incerase
by 0.475
ii)
Intercept = 3
6.
On average , a student who just work up from sleep is expected to make 3 errors
NON-LINEAR ESTIMATES
A: NON-AUTONOMOUS DISCRETE MALTHUSIAN GROWTH MODEL
1. Find a 50-year population data of a country (preferably between 1960- 2010).
Population for Malaysia from 1960 2010
Year
Population
1960
8,140,405
1970
10,852,510
1980
13,763,440
1990
17,845,370
2000
22,997,180
2010
27,565,821
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/peo_poppeoplepopulation&date=1960
a) Find the population growth rate for every 10-year period.
Population growth rate = [ ( Population present Population past ) / Population past ] x 100 %
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
YEAR
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Growth Rate
0.35
0.3
0.25
Growth Rate
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ii. The average of all growth rates. Plot the graph and write the equation using best fit curve.
YEAR
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
GROWTH RATE
0
0.3332
0.2682
0.2966
0.2887
0.1987
Growth Rate
0.35
0.3
0.25
f(x) = 0x - 4.81
0.2
Growth Rate
Linear (Growth Rate)
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
19501960197019801990200020102020
c) Plot the graph of the growth rates versus year. Estimate the linear model for the growth rate as a
function of time in year. Using the linear model for the growth rate, find the non-autonomous
discrete Malthusian growth model. Estimate the population and the relative error.
Growth Rate
0.35
0.3
f(x) = 0x - 4.81
0.25
Growth Rate
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
19501960197019801990200020102020
YEAR
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
GROWTH
RATE (y)
0
0.3332
0.2682
0.2966
0.2887
0.1987
1.3854
ERROR
(y - y)
-1.0924
-0.7842
-0.8742
-0.8708
-0.9037
-1.0187
-5.544
d)
Compare graphically the population from the models. Estimate the population of the country in
2050 using estimates found in b) and the Nonautonomous Malthusian Growth model.
1. Pn+1 = ( 1 + r ) Pn ; P0 = 8,140,405 ; r = 0.27708
Pn = ( 1 + r )n P0
P9 = ( 1 + 0.27708 )9 (8,140,405)
= 73,554,448.68 73,554,449
Population
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
Population
Linear (Population)
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
19501960 19701980 19902000 20102020
2.
Pn+1 = ( 1 + k ( t ))Pn
Pn+1 = ( 1 + (393266n800,000,000 ))Pn
Pn+1 = (393266n799,999,999 )Pn
Yeast Biomass
10
18
29
47
71
119
175
257
351
Time(hour)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Yeast Biomass
441
513
560
595
629
641
651
656
660
Yeast Biomass
700
f(x)
f(x)=
=47.86x
- 0.73x^2
- 97.84
+ 61.79x - 144.28
600
500
Yeast Biomass
400
Polynomial (Yeast
Biomass)
300
200
100
0
0
8 10 12 14 16 18 20
b) From the graph of population versus time, the population appears to be approaching a limiting
value or carrying capacity. Guess a suitable value for the carrying capacity M. Using the value M
and the logistic growth model Pn+1=Pn+k(M-Pn)Pn, estimate the value of k.
Pn+1=0.7332(Pn)2+61.791Pn144.28
Pn+1=(1+r)Pn
1+r=61.791;r=60.791
r/M=0.7332;M=60.791/0.7332=82.91(Carryingcapacity)
Pn+1 = Pn + k (82.91-Pn ) Pn
P1 = P0 + k ( 82.91- P0 ) P0
18 = 10 + k ( -82.91 10 ) 10
18 = 10 929.1k
929.1k = -8
k = -8 / 929.1
k = -0.00861
c) Plot the graph of the yeast biomass versus hours for the two models and the observation. Determine
which one is a better model by finding the sum of squares of errors.
Yeast Biomass
700
f(x)
f(x)==47.86x
- 0.73x^2
- 97.84
+ 61.79x - 144.28
600
Yeast Biomass
500
400
Polynomial (Yeast
Biomass)
300
Linear (Yeast
Biomass)
200
100
0
0
8 10 12 14 16 18 20
TIME(HOUR
)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
YEAST
BIOMASS (y)
10
18
29
47
71
119
175
257
351
441
513
560
595
629
641
651
656
660
6423
PREDICTED VALUES
y = 47.861x - 97.843
-49.982
-2.121
45.74
93.601
141.462
189.323
237.184
285.045
332.906
380.767
428.628
476.489
524.35
572.211
620.072
667.933
715.794
763.655
6423.057
ERROR
( y - y)2
3597.840324
404.854641
280.2276
2171.653201
4964.893444
4945.324329
3866.849856
786.522025
327.392836
3628.014289
7118.634384
6974.087121
4991.4225
3224.990521
437.981184
286.726489
3575.322436
10744.35903
62327.09621