11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

An approach to the model-based spatial assessment of damages

caused by urban floods
Z. Vojinovic1*, J.C.W. Ediriweera2 and A.K. Fikri3
1/2/3

Department of Hydroinformatics and Knowledge Management, UNESCO-IHE, Institute

for Water Education, Westvest 7, 2611 AX Delft, The Netherlands
*Corresponding author, e-mail z.vojinovic@unesco-ihe.org

ABSTRACT
Assessment of floods and flood-related damages is a growing priority due to factors such as
increasing urbanisation, unplanned development, changing climate, and increasing operational
and maintenance costs. New information and communication technologies offer improved
opportunities to address these factors. This paper describes an approach for flood damage
assessment as a means of analysing floods and assessing their effects on urban areas. The
damage calculation is performed within a framework of the hydroinformatics system where
the use of hydrodynamic models, GIS and remotely sensed data is combined within a single
platform. For calculation of tangible direct damages the costs are calculated on the basis of
model results and cross-referenced against depth damage curves for series of rainfall events.
The flood visualisation component of a GIS technology applied here is designed in a way to
easily assess potential behaviour of flooding, its rates of rise, evolving flood extents, and
associated water depths and velocities. Such framework is useful not only for effective
calculation of flood damages but also for evaluation of plans for disaster management
activities.

KEYWORDS
Urban floods; flood damages; modelling; GIS; hydroinformatics.

INTRODUCTION
Flood management for urban areas is a growing priority due to factors such as the relentless
migration to cities, unplanned development, changing climate, and increasing operational and
maintenance costs. In particular, the consequences of flash floods in both developed and
developing countries have been increasingly devastating over the past decades and the rising
trend could reach dramatic proportions with further urbanisation, climate change and rapid
population growth. In this respect, new information and communication technologies offer
improved opportunities to address these factors. Computer-based flood modelling studies play
very important role for identifying flood mitigation measures and for generating flood
forecasts as an integral part of urban flood management process. Also, the use of GIS
technology has been invaluable for the purposes of flood management. The evaluation of risk
due to flooding in urban areas requires a detailed assessment of the potential risks that are
possible (see Teng, et. al., 2005, Mark and Parkinson, 2005). In order to evaluate the risk to
communities, properties and infrastructure effectively, it is important to estimate the
distribution of hazards and the magnitudes of flood-related damages. Such damages are
generally divided into tangible and intangible damages. Those that can be estimated and
expressed directly in monetary terms are called tangible damages (e.g., damages to properties,
infrastructure, etc.); see Penning-Rowsell and Chatterton (1977), Kanchanarat (1989).
Tangible damages may be classified further into direct (those that have occurred from a direct
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11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

interaction with the flood) and indirect damages (those that occur because of direct flood
impacts). Intangible damages refer to the type of damages that are difficult to identify in
monetary terms (e.g., loss of social values, loss of life, anxiety, etc.). Despite the difficulties
in quantifying and expressing important variables, some researchers have made their efforts in
developing approaches for quantification of intangible damages (see, for example, Lekuthai
and Vongvisessomjai, 2001).
The methodologies for estimating these categories of flood damages may differ from country
to country, but essentially, they all tend to address and quantify various aspects of possible
damages; see for example Tang et. al., (1992), Nascimento et. al. (2007). The present paper
describes a more generic approach for flood damage analysis and provides some of the main
results from an ongoing research. The case study used here is one of the tropical islands
located in Caribbean - St Maarten, N.A.
In what follows we discuss the importance of urban flood modelling as a means to generate
information which is essential for flood damage assessment process.

URBAN FLOOD MODELLING

Physically based computational modelling has been invaluable for modeling of floods in
urban areas. With instantiated models, it is possible to explore the generation of damages and
to simulate the consequent effects in response to any control actions. Where flood flows are
confined to well-defined conduits, a robust 1D model can usually be instantiated, and used to
generate results safe for decision-making. However, the flows generated in urban flood
disasters are normally highly complex because the morphology of the urban surface is
eminently artificial, with its highly irregular geometry, and is often contrary to natural flow
paths. Modelling flows in such complex geometrical situations is difficult. Small geometric
discontinuities such as road or pavement curbs can play a significant role in diverting the
shallow flows that are generated along roads, through fences and around buildings. Head
losses due to flow over or round such structures are difficult to accommodate. Frequently the
urban flows are super-critical whereas many of the available modelling products, although
they simulate flows that are in reality super-critical, in practice they use modified sub-critical
flow algorithms. The use of finite difference methods in conjunction with the reduced
momentum equation together with the boundary condition structure inherent to subcritical
flow conditions is a standard approach used for numerical simulation of all flow regimes (i.e.,
subcritical, supercritical and transcritical) in most of the commercial packages. Due to
incomplete equations and inadequate boundary conditions used to model supercritical and
transcritical flows, such an approach may introduce unrealistic backwater effects, nonamplifying oscillations and other computational instabilities (see, for example, Djordjevic et.
al., 2004). There is also the issue of treating the transition from channel flows to over-ground
shallow depth flows. This necessitates the coupling of simulations using 1D and 2D
modelling systems; see, for example, Hsu et. al., (2000), Djordjevic, et. al., (2005) Chen, et.
al., (2005), and Vojinovic, et. al., (2006). In whatever case, Geo-referenced results from either
1D or 1D-2D coupled models can be used to calculate the risk of flooding and to gain insights
into the nature of floods and their impacts on communities. In the following section we
describe an approach for flood damage calculation which is illustrated on a case study of St
Maarten, N.A.
For assessment of damages, the rising and lowering of water levels together with the
estimation of flow velocities, flow directions, flood durations and inundation extents are
important aspects and need accurate representations. Within the framework of the present
An approach to the model-based spatial assessment of damages caused by urban floods

11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

work, several issues that have an influence on accuracy of numerical model results have been
evaluated. For 1D modelling, such issues involve the capability of a GIS mapping technique
to extrapolate 1D results over the 2D map whereas for 1D-2D modelling the use of different
DTM resolution together with different complexity of the terrain features plays a critical role.
In this respect, terrain data can be processed to represent either the land surface alone or land
surface together with the road network and buildings. For the first case, since the buildings are
represented as hollow objects different land use areas are parameterised by means of different
hydraulic roughness coefficients, whereas in the second case buildings are represented as
solid objects.

AN APPROACH TO FLOOD DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

Case study area
The case study used here involves some of the most affected catchments on St Maarten
Island. St Maarten (Dutch: Eilandgebied Sint Maarten) is one of five island areas
(Eilandgebieden) of the Netherlands Antilles, encompassing the southern half of the island of
Saint Martin/Sint Maarten. With population growth and degree of development activities
experienced over the past decades, flooding has become a growing and serious threat to island
residents, Figure 2. To combat the floods the island government has undertaken several steps
aimed to identify the most effective flood mitigation strategies (see also Vojinovic and van
Teeffelen, 2007).

Figure 2: Scene from a flash flood occurred in July 2005, St Maarten N.A..
With respect to the modeling work, initially, the entire Dutch side of the island was modeled
with the use of one-dimensional hydrodynamic package MIKE 11 (developed by DHI Water
& Environment, http://www.dhigroup.com/Software/WaterResources/MIKE11.aspx), and
later on this model was coupled with the two-dimensional MIKE 21 model and the two
models were used together to describe the flood propagation across the floodplains.
Tangible damage assessment

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11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

The work concerning tangible damage assessment was carried out in a customised GIS tool
where time varying results from unsteady flow numerical models can be geo-referenced to a
spatial framework or grid which includes a model of the terrain. Thus for any time step,
velocity, depth and thus hazard can be determined for each grid element in the two
dimensional spatial framework.
Initially, the property (i.e., building) data were imported into the GIS database and the
associated polygons were converted into a point feature format of a single point as described
in Figure 3.

Figure3: Extraction of ground elevation from DTM

All buildings within the study area were classified into residential, commercial and industrial
and their respective floor levels were incorporated into the GIS database, Table 1.
Table 1: Classification of buildings
Building Type
Residential small
Residential large
Commercial low
Commercial medium
Commercial high
Industrial low
Industrial medium

Classification criteria
Area < 50 m2
Area > 50 m2
Area < 100 m2
100 m2 < Area < 1000 m2
Area > 1000 m2
Area < 100 m2
Area > 100 m2

The damage estimation was based on the general assumption that the monetary damage
depends on the type of the building and its size. Based on historical data, flood stage damage
curves have been developed for each category of buildings. By considering the types of
industry, machinery, turnover and national benefits, the damage values per unit area are
assigned with depths, for industrial buildings. In the same manner flood damage values have
been assigned for commercial buildings per unit area, based on their turnover and trade.
Based on historical data, flood stage damage curves have been developed for each category of
buildings. By considering the types of industry, machinery, turnover and national benefits, the
damage values per unit area are assigned with depths, for industrial buildings. In the same
manner flood damage values have been assigned for commercial buildings per unit area,
based on their turnover and trade.

An approach to the model-based spatial assessment of damages caused by urban floods

11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

Seven flood stage damage curves have been established for the study area. All damage curves
give damage values per unit area except for residential buildings. For residential buildings,
unit values have been assigned for each building, based on residential category as shown in
Figure 4.

Figure 4: Flood damage curves used in the study.

Final direct damage cost was obtained by multiplying the building area and an associated unit
cost of flood depth, as calculated by a numerical model (this was done for different rainfall
events), Figure 5.

Direct Damage Cost ($US)

0.00 - 10176.10
10176.11 - 31402.00
31402.01 - 70112.70
70112.71 - 197107.61
197107.62 - 334326.00

Figure 5: A GIS presentation of direct damage costs.

In this work, damage calculation was carried out for five major rain events concerning two
scenarios, namely after rehabilitation and before rehabilitation. The associated damage
costs are given in Figure 6.

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11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

Direct Damages
before rehabilitation

after rehabilitation

18.0
16.0
14.0

16 . 5

13 . 9

13 . 5

12 . 5

C o st ( $ m iil)

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0

5.2

4.0

3.6

3.3

2.6

2.0

1.
0 .29

0.0
100yr

50yr

20yr

10yr

5yr

Rain event

Figure 6: Direct damage assessment for different scenarios.

Indirect flood damage assessment
In this work, the value of indirect damage was calculated as a fixed percentage of the direct
damage. This assumption was believed to be acceptable for practical reasons as the time
required for a detailed analysis of indirect damage is far too great to be justified in an
individual flood study (see also James and Lee, 1971). To complete the work of this study and
to calculate indirect damages, the values proposed by Kates (1965) were considered as
reasonable enough and as such they were applied in the present work. These values are: 15%
for residential land, 35% for commercial, and 45% for industrial. An overview on total
tangible damage is given in Tables 3 and 4.
Table 2: Estimation of indirect damages before rehabilitation
Direct damage
Indirect damage
Rainfall
Tangible
Event
Res
Com
Ind
Res(15%) Com(35%) Ind(45%) damage
1:5 year
0.9
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.4
1:10 year
1.8
1.8
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.0
4.5
1:20 year
2.4
2.7
0.0
0.4
0.9
0.0
6.5
1:50 year
4.0
9.2
0.7
0.6
3.2
0.3
18.0
1:100 year
4.7
10.9
0.8
0.7
3.8
0.4
21.4
Table 1: Estimation of indirect damages after rehabilitation
Direct damage
Indirect damage
Rainfall
Tangible
Event
Res
Com
Ind
Res(15%) Com(35%) Ind(45%) damage
1:5 year
0.7
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.1
1:10 year
1.5
1.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
3.2
1:20 year
2.0
1.4
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.0
4.2
1:50 year
3.9
7.9
0.7
0.5
2.8
0.3
15.8
1:100 year
4.1
8.6
0.8
0.6
3.0
0.4
17.5

Intangible damage assessment

An intangible damage assessment has always been regarded as a very complicated and
difficult task due to the range of issues as well as subjectivity. In our work we have adopted
the methodology introduced by Lekuthai and Vongvisessomjai (2001).
In order to find the relationship between anxiety, productivity and income, directly affected
following predominant factors were identified.
An approach to the model-based spatial assessment of damages caused by urban floods

11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

Anxiety
Productivity

= f (Flood depth, Land use)

=f (Anxiety, Income)

From the sociological survey carried out on St Maarten Island, it was found that, over 80% of
people feel that they will not be affected by a flood depth of less than 0.1 m. At the same time,
over 80% of people feel that they will be greatly affected if the floodwaters are higher than
0.9m. This can be explained by the tragic experience of flash floods occurred in the past.
Other details complied from this study are given in Figure 7. This figure gives the value of
intangible damages calculated for each scenario and converted into the monetary value.
In the present work, the so-called API methodology (Lekuthai and Vongvisessomjai, 2001)
was modified according to the field data. Following this, the new relationships were
established to estimate intangible damages for St Maarten Island:
1. Relationship of flood depth and anxiety was derived as FloodDepth = 0.05e0.0361 Anxiety
2. Relationship between the flood depth and loss of income was derived as 6th order
polynomial function.

Figure 7: Estimation of intangible damages.

Annual benefit calculation
The total damages caused by different flood events (i.e., different flood return periods) are
used here in order to determine the probability-damage relationship, as presented in Figure 8,
Graph-C. The expected annual flood damage can be determined from the probability-damage
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11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

curve. The benefit calculation determines the value of the expected annual benefit from a
rehabilitation measure (in this case, construction of a single detention basin was used as an
example of a rehabilitation measure), constituting a factor by which all damage data are
proportionately reduced. This is achieved by calculating the contribution that each successive
flood event makes to the annual average flood damage. Thus, the mean damage expected
from two flood events of similar magnitudes is multiplied by the probable interval between
the two occurrences (see also Parker et al., 1987). In other words, the expected annual flood
damage is the damage divided by its return period, or the damage multiplied by its
exceedance probability. Furthermore, in practice, the area under the curve which describes the
probability-damage relationship is equivalent to the expected annual flood damage. Table 4
summarizes the estimated total damages for a 1:100yr ARI rainfall event.

Table 4: Total flood damage for a 1:100 yr ARI.

Average
Annual
Scenario
Flood damage(mill$)
Total
Recurrence Exceedence
Direct Indirect Tangible Intangible (mill$)
Interval
Probability
(ARI)
(AEP)
1:100 year
1%
Existing
16.4
5.0
21.4
0.1
21.5
Rehab
13.5
4.0
17.5
0.1
17.6
The expected annual benefit can be calculated by calculating the difference in the expected
annual damage estimates provided by two flood mitigation scenarios, Figure 8, Graph-C.

Figure 8: Results from annual benefit calculation

Figure 8, Graph-B, illustrates that the peak discharge and flood depth would reduce form 68
cms and 7.2 m depth to 32 cms and 6.4m respectively. This also implies that the benefit of a
detention basis for a 1: 100 year flood event (1% AEP) can be reduced to 1: 15 year
(6.5%AEP) flood event as shown in Figure 8, Graph-A. Further to that, it can be concluded
An approach to the model-based spatial assessment of damages caused by urban floods

11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, 2008

that there is a 6.5% probability of getting a flood with peak flow of 32 cms and depth of
6.4m in each year.
Flood damages have been estimated for five flood events and evaluated for two scenarios:
before rehabilitation (i.e., existing case) and after rehabilitation (i.e., after construction of
a detention basin), as shown in Figure 87, Graph-C. Therefore, the benefits of constructing
detention basin can be estimated as follows:
Flood damage for existing scenario =
5.2 mill$
Flood damage after rehab
=
2.9 mill $
Rehab benefit for 6.5% AEP
=
2.3 mill$
Annual expected benefit

=
=

2.3 * 6.5%
0.15 mill $/ Annum

This can be also explained as, if this project is implemented, the society will gain benefits (or
be protected from the losses) in the value of 0.15mill $ for each year.

CONCLUSION
This paper presents an approach that can be used for estimation of flood damages. The study
presented here is an attempt to incorporate the GIS technology with computer-based flood
modelling results for flood damage assessment and disaster planning. St.Maarten was chosen
as a case study for this work. The study suggests several findings. First, there are many issues
with respect to the use of a particular modeling technique (i.e., 1D, 2D, etc.). In this respect,
terrain features and DTM resolution are very critical aspects that need careful consideration.
In case that the 1D model is used, special care must be given to the GIS mapping technique
for representation of model results over a 2D map. This is particularly important for irregular
and steep terrains. In terms of the damage calculation, the use of a hydroinformatics system
which incorporates numerical model results and GIS within the same framework is essential.
The flood damage assessment for both tangible and intangible damages was carried out and
the results obtained suggest that the use of methodology applied here can be effective to
quantify the benefits (or damages) of different rehabilitation alternatives. With the recent
provision of some actual flood damage data it is our intention to undertake comparison
against this data and to further comment in another publication on the validity of this
approach.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Executive Council of the Island
Territory of St. Maarten for their cooperation and providing valuable info to prepare this
paper. Also, we would like to thank to the Department of Public Works in Philipsburg St.
Maarten Neth. Antilles.

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