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Ron Shevlin
+1.617.338.6045
rshevlin@aitegroup.com
Gwenn Bezard
Business-to-Consumer Disbursements:
Time to Take Notice
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June 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................. 3
METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 3
DISBURSEMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES ....................................................................................................... 4
TOTAL DISBURSEMENTS ................................................................................................................................. 4
DISBURSEMENT PENETRATION ...................................................................................................................... 4
ALTERNATIVE ECONOMY DISBURSEMENTS ................................................................................................... 6
GOVERNMENT DISBURSEMENTS .................................................................................................................... 6
EMPLOYER DISBURSEMENTS .......................................................................................................................... 7
MERCHANT DISBURSEMENTS ......................................................................................................................... 7
OTHER DISBURSEMENTS ................................................................................................................................ 8
PAYMENT METHODS USED FOR DISBURSEMENTS ......................................................................................... 8
THE IMPACT OF CHECK DISPLACEMENT ....................................................................................................... 11
NEW ECONOMY DISBURSEMENTS ............................................................................................................... 12
CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................................ 15
RELATED AITE GROUP RESEARCH ................................................................................................................. 16
ABOUT AITE GROUP...................................................................................................................................... 17
CONTACT ...................................................................................................................................................... 17
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: ALLOCATION OF DISBURSEMENTS BY PAYER, 2011 ...................................................................... 4
FIGURE 2: PENETRATION RATE FOR B2C DISBURSEMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2011 ............................ 5
FIGURE 3: NUMBER OF DISBURSEMENT TYPES RECEIVED PER CONSUMER, 2011 ........................................ 6
FIGURE 4: PAYMENT METHODS USED TO MAKE DISBURSEMENTS ............................................................... 9
FIGURE 5: ALLOCATION OF PAYMENT METHODS BY PAYER ........................................................................ 10
FIGURE 6: CHECKS DISBURSED BY PAYER ..................................................................................................... 11
FIGURE 7: ESTIMATES OF DISBURSEMENT CHECK PROCESSING COSTS BY ISSUER...................................... 11
FIGURE 8: NEW ECONOMY DISBURSEMENTS OPPORTUNITY ...................................................................... 13
FIGURE 9: WHO WILL CONTROL THE PAYMENT PROCESSING OPPORTUNITY? ........................................... 14
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE A: ALTERNATIVE ECONOMY DISBURSEMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2011 ..................................... 6
TABLE B: GOVERNMENT DISBURSEMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2011 ..................................................... 7
TABLE C: EMPLOYER DISBURSEMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2011 ........................................................... 7
TABLE D: MERCHANT DISBURSEMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2011 .......................................................... 8
TABLE E: OTHER DISBURSEMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, 2011 .................................................................. 8
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June 2012
INTRODUCTION
Over the past decade, many established and emerging payment companies have focused on
addressing consumer-to-business (C2B) payments, at the point of sale, online, and for bill
payment, as well as person-to-person (P2P) market opportunities. The interest has been
legitimate given the sheer size of the volumes at stake. In the United States, P2P payments
represent a formidable market opportunity, with about US$900 billion in transaction volume
predominantly being paid via cash and check. Retail eCommerce, on the other hand, is a US$200
billion market, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. With so much focus on C2B and
P2P payments, however, an important segment has failed to receive the same level of attention:
government-to-consumer and business-to-consumer (G2C and B2C) disbursements.
G2C and B2C disbursements occur for many reasonsgovernment agencies issue tax refunds;
retailers and merchants issue overpayment refunds, product rebates, and brand incentives; and
employers distribute bonuses, expense reimbursements, and payments for freelance or side
work. Combined G2C and B2C disbursements dwarf the size of P2P and U.S. e-commerce sales
by a massive amount. In 2011, Aite Group estimates that non-payroll U.S. corporate and
government disbursements to consumers totaled nearly US$3 trillion. Of that total, corporate
disbursements accounted for US$2 trillion and government disbursements accounted for US$1
trillion. Given that a sizeable chunk of those transactions is still being transacted by checks, Aite
Group believes that opportunities exist for payment processors to step in and provide support.
Beyond helping corporations and government agencies reduce their disbursement costs, there is
another reason why payment firms should take notice of the disbursement market:
Disbursements are front and center to many new economy businessesbusinesses that
leverage online and/or mobile technologies as a critical component of a business model that
intermediates or disintermediates providers and consumers of a product or service. Although
many of those businesses are still early-stage, the volumes they handle represent double-digit
growth opportunities in the disbursement market. In other words, we believe these businesses
represent significant growth opportunities in the decade ahead.
This Aite Group Impact Note presents the findings of a consumer survey that uncovered the
types of disbursements that consumers receive, the payment methods by which they receive
these disbursements, the opportunity to help corporations and government agencies reduce
disbursements costs, and the opportunity associated with new economy businesses.
M E T H O D O LO GY
In Q2 2012, Aite Group conducted a survey of 1,115 U.S. consumers. The sample was recruited
to represent the overall age, income, geographic, and gender distribution of the United States.
The data has a margin of error of 3 points at the 95% level of confidence.
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June 2012
9%
12%
16%
17%
Employer
33%
28%
Other
Government
3%
Merchant
Alternative economy
33%
38%
Transactions
Dollar value
D ISB UR SE ME N T P E N E T R AT I O N
Federal and state tax refunds are the most frequently received type of disbursement, with 35%
of U.S. consumers receiving at least one federal or state tax refund in 2011. Sixteen percent of
consumers received a rebate for a product or service, and one in 10 received one or more
investment dividends or overpayment refunds. The penetration rate for the other 15 types of
disbursements Aite Group asked about in the survey was less than 10% (Figure 2).
1. Alternative economy disbursements represents payments made for non-traditional employment and
other money-making situations and arrangements
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Figure 2: Penetration Rate for B2C Disbursements in the United States, 2011
Percentage of Consumers Who Received the Following
Disbursements in 2011
Federal or state tax refund
35%
Product/service rebate
16%
Investment dividend
10%
Overpayment refund
10%
9%
9%
Government aid/assistance
9%
Freelance work
8%
8%
Insurance claim
8%
7%
Employer gifts/bonuses/prizes
7%
Lottery/gambling gain
6%
Property rent
6%
Tuition reimbursement
6%
5%
Medical trial
5%
4%
4%
Despite the low penetration rates for individual types of disbursements, about half of all U.S.
consumers received at least one type of disbursement in 2011. About one in four received just
one, a similar percentage received between two and five, and 5% of consumers received six or
more types of disbursements (Figure 3).
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48%
24%
23%
5%
None
One
Two to five
Six+
A LT E R N AT IV E ECO N O MY D I SB URSE ME N T S
Aite Group includes freelance work, affiliated and multilevel marketing programs, and content
produced and distributed as components of the alternative economy. In 2011, this category
accounted for more than 611 million disbursements, totaling nearly US$1.17 trillion.
The 8% of consumers who received disbursements for freelance work averaged roughly 16
payments per recipient in 2011 and received an average of more than US$2,300 in total
payments, making freelance work the largest category of disbursements from both transaction
and dollar-volume perspectives (Table A).
Table A: Alternative Economy Disbursements in the United States, 2011
Average per recipient
Type of disbursement
Freelance work
Rent/sublet/vacation rentals
Lottery/gambling
Affiliated marketing program
Multilevel marketing program
Online content
TOTAL
Percentage
of consumers
receiving
disbursement
8%
6%
6%
5%
4%
4%
Annual
payments
received
16.3
10.4
4.9
6.0
6.5
8.9
Annual
dollar
volume
$2,329
$3,127
$700
$78
$3,190
$406
Total
Disbursements
(# in millions)
Dollar vale
(In US$
billions)
322.8
72.0
72.4
33.0
32.9
78.5
611.6
$ 751.6
$ 225.2
$ 50.7
$ 2.6
$104.8
$ 31.9
$1,166.3
G OVE R N M E N T D IS B UR SE M E N T S
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G2C disbursement exceeded 300 million transactions and US$1 trillion in dollar volume in 2011.
Federal and state tax refunds were received by more Americans than were other types of
disbursements, and recipients of tax refunds averaged just 1.5 payments per recipient, for an
average of US$1,436 per recipient. Topping US$500 billion, other government disbursements
were the second leading category of disbursements in dollar volume in 2011, with recipients
each receiving slightly less than US$6,000 (Table B).
Table B: Government Disbursements in the United States, 2011
Average per recipient
Type of disbursement
Federal or state tax refund
Other govt disbursement
Government aid/assistance
TOTAL
Percentage
of consumers
receiving
disbursement
35%
9%
9%
Annual
payments
received
1.5
8.2
10.4
Annual
dollar
volume
$1,436
$5,943
$3,149
Total
Disbursements
(# in millions)
Dollar value
(In US$
billions)
119.6
85.7
102.5
307.9
$ 171.8
$ 509.6
$ 322.8
$1,004.3
E MP LOY E R D I SB U RS E M E N TS
Employer disbursements include business expense reimbursements, employer
gifts/bonuses/prizes, and tuition reimbursement. In 2011, employer disbursements accounted
for nearly 188 million disbursements, totaling more than US$287 million (Table C).
Table C: Employer Disbursements in the United States, 2011
Average per recipient
Percentage
of consumers
receiving
Type of disbursement
disbursement
Business expense reimburse
7%
Employer gifts/bonuses/prizes 7%
Tuition reimbursement
6%
TOTAL
Annual
payments
received
5.2
3.5
7.6
Annual
dollar
volume
$2,256
$469
$1,474
Total
Disbursements
(# in millions)
Dollar value
(In US$
billions)
82.7
53.7
51.4
187.8
$186.5
$ 25.2
$ 75.9
$287.5
M E R C H A N T D I SB U RS E M E N TS
Although merchant-related disbursements accounted for the largest portion of disbursements
by transaction volume, the relatively small dollar value per transaction caused merchant
disbursements to account for the smallest percentage of 2011 dollar volume (Table D).
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Type of disbursement
Product/service rebate
Overpayment refund
Store credit
Brand or store incentive
TOTAL
Percentage
of consumers
receiving
disbursement
16%
10%
9%
8%
Annual
payments
received
3.9
7.7
4.6
4.3
Annual
dollar
volume
$83
$353
$74
$99
Total
Disbursements
(# in millions)
Dollar value
(In US$
billions)
143.0
189.0
101.1
81.1
514.2
$11.8
$66.6
$ 7.5
$ 8.0
$94.0
OT H E R D I SB URS E M E N T S
The Aite Group survey captured data for disbursements not included in the previous categories,
including investment dividends, insurance claims, property rent payments, and disbursements
for medical trial participants. These disbursements accounted for more than 211 million
transactions, totaling US$388.5 billion in 2011 (Table E).
Table E: Other Disbursements in the United States, 2011
Average per recipient
Type of disbursement
Investment dividend
Insurance claim
Medical trial
TOTAL
Percentage
of consumers
receiving
disbursement
10%
8%
5%
Annual
payments
received
10.5
3.4
5.1
Annual
dollar
volume
$2,798
$4,401
$91
Total
Disbursements
(# in millions)
Dollar value
(In US$
billions)
126.3
29.5
55.6
211.4
$ 353.3
$ 130.1
$ 5.1
$388.5
PAY ME N T M E T H O D S US E D FO R D I SB UR SE ME N T S
Among consumers who received at least one disbursement in 2011, six in 10 had a disbursement
deposited directly into their bank account. Nearly half received a check, and about a quarter
were given a gift card or prepaid debit card. About three in 10 recipients were paid by some
other payment method, including cash or PayPal (Figure 4).
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June 2012
61%
48%
29%
23%
15%
Direct deposit
to bank account
Check
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Direct deposit was most frequently used in government-related disbursements like tax refunds,
aid and assistance, and other government disbursements. In merchant-related disbursements,
checks were most frequently used, especially for rebates and overpayment refunds (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Allocation of Payment Methods by Payer
Allocation of Payment Methods by Payer
33%
22%
14%
11%
16%
20%
18%
21%
32%
34%
9%
9%
18%
13%
Credit to credit
or debit card
11%
Gift card/
prepaid card
17%
Check
27%
24%
Direct deposit
to bank account
Other
Employer
11%
9%
20%
27%
Other (e.g.,
cash, PayPal)
43%
20%
19%
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June 2012
139.9
56.9
51.3
18.1
13.6
55.9
30.0
14.3
11.6
32.1
14.3
10.0
7.8
$1,800
$1,679
$1,600
$1,400
$1,456
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$728
$840
$670
$600
$400
$335
$200
$Employers
Retailers/merchants
Government
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June 2012
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June 2012
The gross dollar volume of disbursements generated by new economy businesses remains
relatively small in comparison to the overall disbursement opportunity: New economy-related
disbursements represented less than 1% of the total U.S. corporate and government-toconsumers disbursements in 2011, for instance.
New economy disbursements have two unique characteristics, however: 1) They predominantly
use electronic instruments, such as prepaid cards, PayPal, Skrill, Payoneer, ACH, or wire, and 2)
they are rapidly growing.
Based on the volume processed by leading players targeting new economy disbursement
opportunities, we estimate that U.S. new economy disbursements will grow at a 43% CAGR
between 2012 and 2015, reaching US$59 billion in transactions by 2015 up from US$21 billion in
2012 (Figure 8).
Figure 8: New Economy Disbursements Opportunity
New Economy Disbursements (from U.S.-based businesses to
individuals located within and outside the United States)
(US$ Billion)
$59
$42
$30
$21
$15
$7
2009
$10
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
We believe that the market opportunity associated with new economy disbursements is driven
by a significant shift in the broader world economy, and that various players in payment will gain
or lose out from the trend in the coming years. Much as Western Union rose through the 1990s
by focusing on the needs of immigrants crossing borders in search of better economic
opportunities, and similar to how PayPal benefited from the rise of global e-commerce in the
early 2000s, we believe the decade ahead will open up new opportunities related to processing
disbursements as a wider and wider range of new economy businesses make disbursements a
central part of their business model (Figure 9).
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June 2012
Globalization of
economy
accelerates
Labor moves
across borders
Corporations focus
on core business
Immigrants send
money back home
Corporations make
payroll processes
and disbursement
more efficient
Rise of e-commerce
propels new payment
players (e.g., PayPal)
Prepaid cards
cannibalize checks as
disbursement in selected
areas (e.g., mail-in
rebates)
New intermediaries
build their business
model around
controlling payments
and disbursements
(e.g., HomeAway,
Airbnb, Odesk,
istockphoto, Stubhub)
Trend benefactors
Implications
Big picture
Observation
?
1990s
2000s
2010s
Timeline
Source: Aite Group
Already, a range of players are vying to control the disbursement flows driven by the new
economy. They include:
Digital wallet players, such as eBay's PayPal, Apple, Google, and lesser-known players
such as Skrill, WorldPay's envoy, ProPay, and Hyperwallet.
Card payment networks such as MasterCard and Visa.
Messaging networks such as SWIFT.
Payment processors with roots in prepaid card processing and program management,
such as Obopay, Payoneer, and Wave Crest.
Banks and non-banks with global payment infrastructure such as Citigroup, JPMorgan
Chase, Wells Fargo, and Earthport.
Money transfer companies such as Western Union.
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June 2012
CONCLUSION
From a transaction volume standpoint, corporate and government disbursement
to consumer market represents a large opportunity. It also represents a large
opportunity to displace paper checks via electronic payment means.
Assessing the disbursement market as a mere opportunity to displace checks
would be a grave mistake, however. The rise of new economy businesses that make
disbursement a key part of their business model has considerable implications, the
most obvious of which is opening double-digit growth opportunities in transaction
volumes.
Less obvious is that it raises the importance of controlling the payment flow to a
new level of strategic importance. In the 1990s, when first-generation marketplace
eBay came to the scene, payment was an afterthought, a process left to the buyer
and seller to figure out. Even today, payments on eBay continue to occur between
buyers and sellers. Although most are processed by eBay's PayPal, payments are still
made, in essence, directly from buyer to seller. Today, with the new generation of
marketplaces and new economy businesses, payments are usually tightly controlled
by the marketplace itself. In the case of oDesk, for instance, payments flow from
buyer to Odesk, and are then disbursed from Odesk to the seller of services.
Another example is the approach of first-generation marketplaces like
HomeAway/VRBO, which originally treated payments and disbursements as an
afterthought (they only recently introduced a payment solution, which competes
with PayPal, checks, and other payment means). This contrasts with the approach of
a second-generation home rental marketplace, like Airbnb, for which controlling
payments and disbursements has been core tenet from the get-go.
Over the next decade, we believe disbursement flows will become an increasing
area of competition among payment firms. For payment processors that haven't yet
made disbursement a key area of development, it's time to take notice and develop
a game plan.
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June 2012
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June 2012
C O N TAC T
For more information on research and consulting services, please contact:
Aite Group Sales
+1.617.338.6050
sales@aitegroup.com
For all press and conference inquiries, please contact:
Patrick Kilhaney
+1.718.522.2524
pr@aitegroup.com
For all other inquiries, please contact:
info@aitegroup.com
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