Forecasting Solutions

Mart Anthony D.
dela Pena
4/10/15
Forecasting
Moving averages - 4 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area
Num pds
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
4
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14
12.75
15
17.75
21
24.5
26.75
25.5
23
Total
Average
Next period
19
6.25
6.25
39.0625
8
8
64
8.25
8.25
68.0625
9
9
81
3.5
3.5
12.25
-8.75
8.75
76.5625
-9.5
9.5
90.25
-9
9
81
7.75
62.25 512.1875
0.96875 7.78125 64.02344
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE
9.239296
average
Abs Pct Err
32.89%
34.78%
31.73%
30.00%
12.50%
48.61%
59.38%
64.29%
314.18%
39.27%
MAPE
Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

4/10/15
Forecasting
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area
Num pds
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
3
Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Next period
10
12
13
16
19
23
26
30
28
18
16
14
16
11.666667
13.666667
16
19.333333
22.666667
26.333333
28
25.333333
20.666667
Total
Average
4.3333333 4.3333333 18.777778

5.3333333 5.3333333 28.444444
7
7
49
6.6666667 6.6666667 44.444444
7.3333333 7.3333333 53.777778
1.6666667 1.6666667 2.7777778
-10
10
100
-9.333333 9.3333333 87.111111
-6.666667 6.6666667 44.444444
6.3333333 58.333333 428.77778
0.703704 6.481481 47.64198
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE
7.826491
average
Abs Pct Err
27.08%
28.07%
30.43%
25.64%
24.44%
05.95%
55.56%
58.33%
47.62%
303.13%
33.68%
MAPE

4/10/15
Forecasting
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area
Num pds
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
3
Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
Next period 13.666667
4.6666667
5
6.3333333
7.6666667
8.3333333
8
9.3333333
11.666667
Total
Average
0.3333333 0.3333333 0.1111111

5
5
25
1.6666667 1.6666667 2.7777778
-0.666667 0.6666667 0.4444444
0.6666667 0.6666667 0.4444444
4
4
16
4.6666667 4.6666667 21.777778
3.3333333 3.3333333 11.111111
19 20.333333 77.666667
2.375 2.541667 9.708333
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE
3.597839
average
Abs Pct Err
06.67%
50.00%
20.83%
09.52%
07.41%
33.33%
33.33%
22.22%
183.32%
22.92%
MAPE

4/10/15
Forecasting
Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area..
area.. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in INCREASING
INCREASING
order
order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Forecast Error
Absolute
Weights
4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15
1
1
2
4.5
5
7.25
7.75
8
8.25
10
12.25
0.5
5
0.75
-0.75
1
3.75
4
2.75
17
2.125
Total
Average
Bias
Next period
14
0.5
5
0.75
0.75
1
3.75
4
2.75
18.5
2.3125
MAD
SE
od moving average
Squared
Abs Pct Err
0.25
10.00%
25
50.00%
0.5625
09.38%
0.5625
10.71%
1
11.11%
14.0625
31.25%
16
28.57%
7.5625
18.33%
65
169.36%
8.125
21.17%
MSE
MAPE
3.291403

4/10/15
Enter alpha (between 0 and 1), enter the past demands in the shaded column then enter a starting forecast. If the
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Exponential smoothing
0.3
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
4
6
4
5
10
8
7
9
12
14
15

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
5
-1
1
1
4.7
1.3
1.3
1.69
5.09
-1.09
1.09
1.1881
4.763
0.237
0.237 0.056169
4.8341
5.1659
5.1659 26.686523
6.38387
1.61613
1.61613 2.6118762
6.868709 0.131291 0.131291 0.0172373
6.9080963 2.0919037 2.0919037 4.3760611
7.5356674 4.4643326 4.4643326 19.930265
8.8749672 5.1250328 5.1250328 26.265961
10.412477 4.587523 4.587523 21.045367
Total 22.629113 26.809113 104.86756
Average 2.057192 2.437192 9.533415
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 3.413495
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

25.00%
21.67%
27.25%
04.74%
51.66%
20.20%
01.88%
23.24%
37.20%
36.61%
0.30583486
280.03%
25.46%
MAPE

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Next period
0.3
Demand
450
495
518
563
584
521.8337

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
410
40
40
1600
422
73
73
5329
443.9
74.1
74.1
5490.81
466.13
96.87
96.87 9383.7969
495.191
88.809
88.809 7887.0385
Total
372.779
372.779 29690.645
Average 74.5558 74.5558 5938.129
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 99.48307
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

08.89%
14.75%
14.31%
17.21%
0.15207021
70.35%
14.07%
MAPE

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Next period
0.6
Demand
450
495
518
563
584
565.3664

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
410
40
40
1600
434
61
61
3721
470.6
47.4
47.4
2246.76
499.04
63.96
63.96 4090.8816
537.416
46.584
46.584 2170.0691
Total
258.944
258.944 13828.711
Average 51.7888 51.7888 2765.742
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 67.89382
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

08.89%
12.32%
09.15%
11.36%
0.07976712
49.70%
09.94%
MAPE

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Next period
0.9
Demand
450
495
518
563
584
581.4221

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
410
40
40
1600
446
49
49
2401
490.1
27.9
27.9
778.41
515.21
47.79
47.79 2283.8841
558.221
25.779
25.779 664.55684
Total
190.469
190.469 7727.8509
Average 38.0938 38.0938 1545.57
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 50.75382
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

08.89%
09.90%
05.39%
08.49%
0.04414212
37.08%
07.42%
MAPE
Mart Anthony D. dela Pena Simple Linear Regression

4/10/15
Forecasting
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area
Num pds
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Next period
3
Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
Demand
450
495
518
563
584
555
487.66667 75.333333 75.333333 5675.1111

525.33333 58.666667 58.666667 3441.7778
Total
134
134 9116.8889
Average
67
67 4558.444
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE
#DIV/0!
Not enough data to comp
average
Abs Pct Err
13.38%
10.05%
23.43%
11.71%
MAPE
ot enough data to compute the standard error

4/10/15
Forecasting
Simple linear regression
IfIf this
this isis trend
trend analysis
analysis then
then simply
simply enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the demand
demand column.
column. IfIf this
this
isis causal
causal regression
regression then
then enter
enter the
the y,x
y,x pairs
pairs with
with yy first
first and
and enter
enter aa new
new value
value of
of xx at
at the
the
bottom
bottom in
in order
order to
to forecast
forecast y.
y.
Data
Period
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Demand (y) Period(x)

450
495
518
563
584
Intercept
Slope
421.2
33.6
Forecast
622.8
1
2
3
4
5

Forecast
Error
Absolute
454.8
-4.8
4.8
488.4
6.6
6.6
522
-4
4
555.6
7.4
7.4
589.2
-5.2
5.2
Total
-5.7E-014
28
Average
-1E-014
5.6
Bias
MAD
SE
6
Correlatio
Coefficient of determination
Squared
Abs Pct Err
23.04
01.07%
43.56
01.33%
16
00.77%
54.76
01.31%
27.04
00.89%
164.4
05.38%
32.88
01.08%
MSE
MAPE
7.402702
0.992798
0.985647

4/10/15
Forecasting
Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area
Num pds
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
3
Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
11
14
16
10
15
17
11
14
17
12
14
16
11
13.666667
13.333333
13.666667
14
14.333333
14
14
14.333333
14.333333
14
Total
Average
-3.666667 3.6666667 13.444444

1.6666667 1.6666667 2.7777778
3.3333333 3.3333333 11.111111
-3
3
9
-0.333333 0.3333333 0.1111111
3
3
9
-2
2
4
-0.333333 0.3333333 0.1111111
1.6666667 1.6666667 2.7777778
-3
3
9
-2.666667
22 61.333333
-0.26667
2.2 6.133333
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE
2.768875
average
Abs Pct Err
36.67%
11.11%
19.61%
27.27%
02.38%
17.65%
16.67%
02.38%
10.42%
27.27%
171.42%
17.14%
MAPE

4/10/15
Forecasting
Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average
Enter
Enter the
the data
data in
in the
the shaded
shaded area..
area.. Enter
Enter weights
weights in
in INCREASING
INCREASING
order
order from
from top
top to
to bottom.
bottom.
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

Forecast Error
Absolute
Weights
11
14
16
10
15
17
11
14
17
12
14
16
11
1
2
3
14.5
12.666667
13.5
15.166667
13.666667
13.5
15
14
13.833333
14.666667
Total
Average
-4.5
4.5
2.3333333 2.3333333
3.5
3.5
-4.166667 4.1666667
0.3333333 0.3333333
3.5
3.5
-3
3
0
0
2.1666667 2.1666667
-3.666667 3.6666667
-3.5 27.166667
-0.35 2.716667
Bias
MAD
SE
od moving average
Squared
Abs Pct Err
20.25
45.00%
5.4444444
15.56%
12.25
20.59%
17.361111
37.88%
0.1111111
02.38%
12.25
20.59%
9
25.00%
0
00.00%
4.6944444
13.54%
13.444444
33.33%
94.805556
213.87%
9.480556
21.39%
MSE
MAPE
3.442484

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
0.2
Demand
17
21
19
23
18
16
20
18
22
20
15
22

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
17
0
0
0
17
4
4
16
17.8
1.2
1.2
1.44
18.04
4.96
4.96
24.6016
19.032
-1.032
1.032 1.065024
18.8256
-2.8256
2.8256 7.9840154
18.26048
1.73952
1.73952 3.0259298
18.608384 -0.608384 0.608384 0.3701311
18.486707 3.5132928 3.5132928 12.343226
19.189366 0.8106342 0.8106342 0.6571279
19.351493 -4.351493 4.3514926 18.935488
18.481194 3.5188059 3.5188059 12.381995
Total 10.924776 28.55973 98.804537
Average 0.910398 2.379977 8.233711
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 3.143319
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

00.00%
19.05%
06.32%
21.57%
05.73%
17.66%
08.70%
03.38%
15.97%
04.05%
29.01%
0.15994572
147.43%
12.29%
MAPE
Tracking Signal
Cum Error
Cum Abs Err Mad
Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)
4
4
2
2
5.2
5.2 1.733333333
3
10.16
10.16
2.54
4
9.128
11.192
2.2384 4.077912795
6.3024
14.0176 2.336266667 2.697637256
8.04192
15.75712 2.251017143 3.572571637
7.433536
16.365504
2.045688 3.633758423
10.9468288 19.8787968 2.2087552 4.956107766
11.75746304 20.68943104 2.068943104 5.682835365
7.405970432 25.04092365 2.276447604 3.253301511
10.92477635 28.55972956 2.379977463 4.590285628
m Error/MAD)

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
0.1
Demand
50
35
25
40
45
35
20
30
35
20
15
40
55
35
25
55
55
40
35
60
75
50
40
65

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
50
0
0
0
50
-15
15
225
48.5
-23.5
23.5
552.25
46.15
-6.15
6.15
37.8225
45.535
-0.535
0.535 0.286225
45.4815 -10.4815
10.4815 109.86184
44.43335 -24.43335 24.43335 596.98859
41.990015 -11.99002 11.990015 143.76046
40.791014 -5.791014 5.7910135 33.535837
40.211912 -20.21191 20.211912 408.52139
38.190721 -23.19072 23.190721 537.80954
35.871649 4.1283512 4.1283512 17.043283
36.284484 18.715516 18.715516 350.27054
38.156036 -3.156036 3.1560356 9.9605605
37.840432 -12.84043 12.840432 164.87669
36.556389 18.443611 18.443611 340.16679
38.40075 16.59925 16.59925 275.5351
40.060675 -0.060675 0.0606749 0.0036814
40.054607 -5.054607 5.0546074 25.549056
39.549147 20.450853 20.450853 418.2374
41.594232 33.405768 33.405768 1115.9453
44.934809 5.0651912 5.0651912 25.656162
45.441328 -5.441328 5.4413279 29.60805
44.897195 20.102805 20.102805 404.12276
Total -30.92524 304.74794 5822.8118
Average -1.28855 12.69783 242.6172
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 16.26878
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

00.00%
42.86%
94.00%
15.38%
01.19%
29.95%
122.17%
39.97%
16.55%
101.06%
154.60%
10.32%
34.03%
09.02%
51.36%
33.53%
30.18%
00.15%
14.44%
34.08%
44.54%
10.13%
13.60%
0.30927392
934.03%
38.92%
MAPE

4/10/15
Forecasting
4 seasons
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Decomposition, multiplicative
Enter
Enter past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area.
area. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the time
time period
period numbers!
numbers!
Demand (y) Time (x)

218
1
247
2
243
3
292
4
225
5
254
6
255
7
299
8
234
9
265
10
264
11
327
12
250
13
283
14
289
15
356
16
Average
250
251.75
253.5
256.5
258.25
260.5
263.25
265.5
272.5
276.5
281
287.25
294.5
250.875
252.625
255
257.375
259.375
261.875
264.375
269
274.5
278.75
284.125
290.875
Ratio
Seasonal
0.8824512
0.9816478
0.9686099 0.9711637
1.1558634 1.1569079
0.8823529 0.8824512
0.9868868 0.9816478
0.9831325 0.9711637
1.1417661 1.1569079
0.8851064 0.8824512
0.9851301 0.9816478
0.9617486 0.9711637
1.1730942 1.1569079
0.8798944 0.8824512
0.9729265 0.9816478
0.9711637
1.1569079
Average
Ratios
Season 1
Average
0.88235294
0.88510638
0.87989441
0.88245125
Season 2
Season 3 Season 4
0.9686099 1.1558634
0.9868868 0.9831325 1.1417661
0.9851301 0.9617486 1.1730942
0.9729265
0.9816478 0.9711637 1.1569079 3.9921706
Forecasts
Period
Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
17 300.066199 0.8824512 264.79379
18 303.731984 0.9816478 298.15784
19 307.397769 0.9711637 298.53355
20 311.063554 1.1569079 359.87188
Intercept
Slope

Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted Error
|Error|
Error^2
Abs Pct Err
247.03914 241.41364 213.03577 4.9642333 4.9642333 24.643613
02.28%
251.61773 245.07942 240.58168 6.4183171 6.4183171 41.194794
02.60%
250.21529 248.74521 241.57231 1.4276881 1.4276881 2.0382933
00.59%
252.39693 252.41099 292.01627 -0.016274 0.0162745 0.0002649
00.01%
254.97159 256.07678 225.97527 -0.975273 0.9752728 0.951157
00.43%
258.7486 259.74256 254.97572 -0.975722 0.9757223 0.9520341
00.38%
262.5716 263.40835 255.81262 -0.812621 0.8126209 0.6603526
00.32%
258.44754 267.07413 308.98018 -9.980177 9.980177 99.603933
03.34%
265.17046 270.73992 238.91478 -4.914779 4.9147789 24.155052
02.10%
269.95425 274.4057 269.36976 -4.369762 4.3697618 19.094818
01.65%
271.83883 278.07149 270.05293 -6.05293 6.0529298 36.637959
02.29%
282.64998 281.73727 325.94408 1.0559204 1.0559204 1.1149679
00.32%
283.30177 285.40306 251.85429 -1.854285 1.8542851 3.4383732
00.74%
288.29076 289.06884 283.7638 -0.763801 0.7638012 0.5833922
00.27%
297.58115 292.73463 284.29324 4.7067613 4.7067613 22.153602
01.63%
307.7168 296.40041 342.90798 13.092018 13.092018 171.40093
03.68%
Total
0.9493138 62.380562 448.62354
22.63%
237.74785
0.0593321 3.8987851 28.038971
01.41%
3.665785
Bias
MAD
MSE
MAPE
SE
6.6979365

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
0.6
Demand
50
35
25
40
45
35
20
30
35
20
15
40
55
35
25
55
55
40
35
60
75
50
40
65

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
50
0
0
0
50
-15
15
225
41
-16
16
256
31.4
8.6
8.6
73.96
36.56
8.44
8.44
71.2336
41.624
-6.624
6.624 43.877376
37.6496 -17.6496
17.6496 311.50838
27.05984
2.94016
2.94016 8.6445408
28.823936 6.176064 6.176064 38.143767
32.529574 -12.52957 12.529574 156.99023
25.01183 -10.01183 10.01183 100.23674
19.004732 20.995268 20.995268 440.80128
31.601893 23.398107 23.398107 547.47142
45.640757 -10.64076 10.640757 113.22571
39.256303 -14.2563 14.256303 203.24217
30.702521 24.297479 24.297479 590.36748
45.281008 9.7189915 9.7189915 94.458797
51.112403 -11.1124 11.112403 123.48551
44.444961 -9.444961 9.4449614 89.207295
38.777985 21.222015 21.222015 450.37394
51.511194 23.488806 23.488806 551.72402
65.604478 -15.60448 15.604478 243.49972
56.241791 -16.24179 16.241791 263.79578
46.496716 18.503284 18.503284 342.3715
Total 12.664478 322.89587 5339.6193
Average 0.527687 13.45399 222.4841
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 15.57915
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

00.00%
42.86%
64.00%
21.50%
18.76%
18.93%
88.25%
09.80%
17.65%
62.65%
66.75%
52.49%
42.54%
30.40%
57.03%
44.18%
17.67%
27.78%
26.99%
35.37%
31.32%
31.21%
40.60%
0.2846659
877.17%
36.55%
MAPE

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Week 18
Week 19
Week 20
Week 21
Week 22
Week 23
Week 24
0.9
Demand
50
35
25
40
45
35
20
30
35
20
15
40
55
35
25
55
55
40
35
60
75
50
40
65

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
50
0
0
0
50
-15
15
225
36.5
-11.5
11.5
132.25
26.15
13.85
13.85 191.8225
38.615
6.385
6.385 40.768225
44.3615
-9.3615
9.3615 87.637682
35.93615 -15.93615 15.93615 253.96088
21.593615 8.406385 8.406385 70.667309
29.159362 5.8406385 5.8406385 34.113058
34.415936 -14.41594 14.415936 207.81922
21.441594 -6.441594 6.4415936 41.494128
15.644159 24.355841 24.355841 593.20697
37.564416 17.435584 17.435584 303.99959
53.256442 -18.25644 18.256442 333.29766
36.825644 -11.82564 11.825644 139.84586
26.182564 28.817436 28.817436 830.44459
52.118256 2.8817436 2.8817436 8.3044459
54.711826 -14.71183 14.711826 216.43781
41.471183 -6.471183 6.4711826 41.876204
35.647118 24.352882 24.352882 593.06285
57.564712 17.435288 17.435288 303.98927
73.256471 -23.25647 23.256471 540.86345
52.325647 -12.32565 12.325647 151.92158
41.232565 23.767435 23.767435 564.89098
Total 14.025841 333.03062 5907.6743
Average 0.58441 13.87628 246.1531
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 16.3869
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

00.00%
42.86%
46.00%
34.63%
14.19%
26.75%
79.68%
28.02%
16.69%
72.08%
42.94%
60.89%
31.70%
52.16%
47.30%
52.40%
05.24%
36.78%
18.49%
40.59%
23.25%
46.51%
30.81%
0.36565285
886.52%
36.94%
MAPE

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Month
Month
Month
Month
Month
Month
0.1
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
Next period
70
68.5
64.8
71.7
71.3
72.8
67.4

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
65
5
5
25
65.5
3
3
9
65.8
-1
1
1
65.7
6
6
36
66.3
5
5
25
66.8
6
6
36
Total
24
26
132
Average
4 4.333333
22
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 5.744563
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

07.14%
04.38%
01.54%
08.37%
07.01%
0.08241758
36.69%
06.11%
MAPE

4/10/15
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.
Forecasting
Alpha
Data
Period
Month
Month
Month
Month
Month
Month
0.3
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
Next period
70
68.5
64.8
71.7
71.3
72.8
70.13153

Forecast Error
Absolute Squared
65
5
5
25
66.5
2
2
4
67.1
-2.3
2.3
5.29
66.41
5.29
5.29
27.9841
67.997
3.303
3.303 10.909809
68.9879
3.8121
3.8121 14.532106
Total
17.1051
21.7051 87.716015
Average 2.85085 3.617517 14.61934
Bias
MAD
MSE
SE 4.682841
ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.
Abs Pct Err

07.14%
02.92%
03.55%
07.38%
04.63%
0.05236401
30.86%
05.14%
MAPE

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Mart Anthony D.

Moving averages - 4 period moving average

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

4.3333333 4.3333333 18.777778

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Next period 13.666667

0.3333333 0.3333333 0.1111111

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Next period 11.788734

Forecasts and Error Analysis

ecast. IfIf the

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Forecasts and Error Analysis

ecast. IfIf the

Abs Pct Err

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Forecasts and Error Analysis

ecast. IfIf the

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Forecasts and Error Analysis

ecast. IfIf the

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena Simple Linear Regression

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

487.66667 75.333333 75.333333 5675.1111

Abs Pct Err

ot enough data to compute the standard error

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Simple linear regression

Demand (y) Period(x)

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Next period 13.666667

-3.666667 3.6666667 13.444444

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Next period 13.166667

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Next period 19.184955

Forecasts and Error Analysis

ecast. IfIf the

Abs Pct Err

Track Signal (Cum Error/MAD)

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena

Next period 46.907476

Forecasts and Error Analysis

ecast. IfIf the

Abs Pct Err

Mart Anthony D. dela Pena