Background of Zamboanga Siege

COG (MNLF Perspective)

Strategic
Operational
Justifications

Conclusion

 MNLF is a rebel group founded by Nur Misuari in 1969

MNLF-GPH Peace Process 1976 1996

Tripoli Agreement in 1977

Chronology of Events:

Final Peace Agreement in 1996

29 Jun 13 Nur Misuari conducted MNLF leadership assembly; Declared that he is against the
Bangsamoro framework initiated by MILF
o Present in the assembly were Ustadz Jain Jali and an alleged UN rep who declared that:
He can call up thousands of UN Forces to be led by USA if MNLF conflict would erupt again
He can facilitate the direct line talk of MISUARI with the UN Secretary General if MNLF will declare
Independence during the conflict

08 Jul 13 MOL 500 MNLF members marched in Lamitan City as part of their peace
consultation caravan exercise in Basilan.
25 Jul13 MOL 300 MNLF fighters consolidated at their base camps in Zambo Sibugay for the
declaration of Bangsamoro Independence and raising MNLF flag

 26 Jul13 MNLF general assembly conducted at Alicia, ZSP

attended by MOL 200 MNLF members

29 Jul13 Misuaris supposed declaration of Bangsamoro

Independence in Talipao, Sulu did not materialize
12 Aug 13 Misuari declared Bangsamoro Independence to almost
700 MNLF members/supporters in Talipao, Sulu and stated: Im
declaring this day, August 12, 2013 as Bangsamoro Republic
Independence Day.
13 Aug 13 Nur Misuari declared independence again in Indanan,
Sulu (the pronouncement of independence in 12 Aug has not
created so much impact)
21Aug 13 MNLF Senior Leaders Forum was held in Zambo City
attended by prominent MNLF personalities, ARMM Governor and
Dir Yosup Paradji of OPAPP with the purpose of sustaining the
peace accord between the govt and MNLF

 31Aug - 01Sep13 A convergence forum for

development in MNLF communities was held in Zambo City
presided by USEC Lorena of OPAPP and attended by ARMM
officials and 100 top ranking MNLF leaders
5-8 Sep 13 MNLF Force Build-up
Misuaris armed loyalists started massing up and moving out
of Sulu
Fighters from Jolo and Basilan arrived in Zambo City
7 pump boats with HPFAs arrived in Zambo City.

9 Sep 13 Armed MNLF were seen moving on foot from

Brgy Santa Barbara heading towards Brgy Santa Catalina,
Zambo City. Initial fighting started on this day until 27 Sep
28 Sep 23 Oct 13 Post conflict activities
23 Oct 13 Military intervention was finally concluded
through a Turn-over Ceremony between JTF ZAMPELAN and
Zamboanga City Govt

MILITARY

MNLF

CIV

KILLED/KIA

26

206

12

WOUNDED/WIA/

194

CAPTURED/APPREHENDED

270

SURRENDERED

24

RESCUED HOSTAGES
LOSSES/RECOVERED
IDP
HOMES BURNED

70

GOVT COST

195

80-100
BILLION PHP

262 HPFAs AND 20 LPFAs

125,000
10,000 approx

Critical Factor Analysis Model

Center of Gravity (COG)
Source of power that provides freedom of
action, physical and moral strength, and will
to act (NOUN)

Critical Vulnerabilities (CV)

Aspects or components of the adversarys critical
requirements which are deficient or vulnerable
to direct or indirect attack that will create
decisive or significant effects disproportionate to
the military resources applied (NOUN)
End State/ Objectives: Assess Friendly and Enemy

Critical Capabilities (CC)

Means that are considered crucial enablers for
the adversarys COG to function and essential to
the accomplishment of the adversarys assumed
objective(s) (VERB)

Critical Requirements (CR)

Those essential conditions, resources, and
means for a critical capability to be fully
operational (NOUN)

CC
1. Field Forces
(WMC/PNP)
2. Leadership
3. Support System
4. Infrasturcture
5. Population

1 2345

CV
Leadership
Population
Infrastructure
Support System
Commo
Logistics
Finance
Work Force
o Field Forces
o
o
o
o

Operational Environment: ZAMBASULTA

CR

o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o

Control of Airport/Seaport
Employ Mil/PNP Forces
Use of Communication facilities
Control of Commerce/Economic activities
Control of the Seat of Government
Support of Local & International Media
Control of Health Facilities
Support of the populace

o
o
o
o

Manpower/Workforce (S)
People of Zamboanga (P)
Banks, Utilities services, communications, (S)
Critical Infrastructure / Airport/Seaport/Power
Grids/Water Plants/ Road network (S)
Military/police/other law enforcement agencies (F)
Seat of Govt/Military Leadership (L)
Mayor Salazar
COMWESMINCOM
Command and Control systems and facilities (L)
Peace and Order (L/F)

o
o

o
o

End State: Take-over and control of Zamboanga City

OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT (ZAMBASULTA)

ZAMBASULTA is the home to several Muslims Tribes in the region. It is where most of the MNLF
members and fighters loyal to Nur Misuari resides. MNLF are very familiar with the terrain.
OPERATIONAL CENTER OF GRAVITY:
The Western Mindanao Command (WESMINCOM),
based in Zamboanga City, is the primary instrument of the
national government to protect and defend the western
Mindanao from major threats, both external and internal.
Thus, it is the Operational COG. In the conduct of internal
security operations, it supports the PNP and other law
enforcement agencies. The fall of WESMINCOM will mean

the fall of ZAMBASULTA.

CC
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Leadership
Population
Infrastructure
Support System
Field Forces

1 2 34 5

CR

CV
o
o
o
o
o

o
o
o
o
o
o

Leadership/Governance
Population
Infrastructure
Support System
Field Forces

Strategic Environment: Bangsamoro Land

Control of the Regional Centers

Control of Economic Centers
Control of Technology Hub
Employ Military and police forces
Support of the populace
Control of rich biodiversity and natural resources

o Geographic Location Zamboanga City serves as

converging point
o Functioning local government
o Public utilities
o Critical Infrastructure power plants/grid,
air&sea ports, roads, bridges, telecom facilities
o Command and Control systems & facilities
o Logistics
o Manpower/workforce
o Military, police & other law enforcement agencies
o Global and regional alliances
o Population/Consituents
o Media

End State: Establish Mindanao as a new nation that is composed of a federation of four sub-states, namely: (1) Substate of
Mindanao, (2) Substate of Sulu, (3) Substate of Bangsamoro, and (4) Substate of Compostela. Mindanao will be an egalitarian
State. Sulu and Bangsamoro will be Islamic States. Compostela will be a Socialist State.

STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT (BANGSAMORO LAND SULU, MINDANAO, PALAWAN, SABAH)

- are home to a sizeable Muslim population
- is considered the agricultural basin of the Philippines
- sacred home of Raja Bantogen the Meranaw largest non-Muslim and Subanon Tribe;

STRATEGIC CENTER OF GRAVITY:

Leadership and Control of Zamboanga City as the MNLF sees
the city as the symbolic center of power of the national
government in western Mindanao.

It is also the most

accessible among the possible targeted highly-urbanized

cities in which to conduct their offensive activities. Seizing it
and declaring the Bangsamoro Independence (and raising
their flag) in this city would attract national and international
attention, thus advancing their objective of secession from
the RP.

-The MNLF will pursue the attainment of its end state whatever it cost
- No determined casualty criteria before disengaging
- There were left with no options when they were isolated/surrounded by the government forces in
land and at sea but to burn houses/buildings, take civilians as hostages and use as shield, blend with
them to escape from the area.

Blend-in with the civilians

Take civilians as hostage
and use as shield

No determined casualty criteria

before disengaging

End States compared:

MNLF

Government

Operational End
State

Take-over and control of Zamboanga City

Destroy the MNLF forces at

Zamboanga City and prevent
the escalation of hostilities to
other parts of Mindanao with
minimal collateral damage

Strategic End State

Establish Mindanao as a new nation that is

Prevent the MNLF from getting
composed of a federation of four sub-states, outside support and in gaining
namely: (1) Substate of Mindanao, (2)
media mileage
Substate of Sulu, (3) Substate of
Bangsamoro, and (4) Substate of
Compostela. Mindanao will be an egalitarian
State. Sulu and Bangsamoro will be Islamic
States. Compostela will be a Socialist State

The MNLF failed to achieve their operational and strategic end state while the government
achieved its end state. However, the collateral damage of the siege exceeded the expectations.

History is written by the victors as such,

rebellion can only be justified if it wins...