Global Market Forecast 2012-2031

Presented by: CHRIS EMERSON

SVP, Future Programmes & Market Strategy

Source: IHS Global Inisght, OAG, Airbus

Aviation in the context of world economy

$5.3 trillion

2,681,000,000
passengers carried in 2010

56.6

Jobs supported
World-wide

$2.2

trillion

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

of global man-made CO2

worth of cargo shipped by
emissions come from aviation
air in 2010

million

Globally
contributes

2%

Aviations global
economic impact

19th
If aviation was a
country ranked
by GDP

Source: ICAO, Airbus

Despite economic uncertainties, the world traffic

continued to post strong growth
Evolution of world annual RPK traffic

Oil Crisis

Oil Crisis

Financial
Asian WTC
Crisis
Crisis Attack SARS

Gulf Crisis

5,0
4,5

+53%*

4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010
* since 2000

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Source: ICAO, Airbus

Despite economic uncertainties, the world traffic

continued to post strong growth
Focus on the last decade:
Evolution of world annual RPK traffic

Oil Crisis

Oil Crisis

Financial
Asian WTC
Crisis
Crisis Attack SARS

Gulf Crisis

5,0
4,5

+53%*

4,0
3,5
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010
* since 2000

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Source: IHS Global Insight, ICAO, OAG, Airbus

World economic growth has clearly

been driven by the emerging economies
Evolution of world RPKs and real GDP (Base 100 in 2000)

Evolution of
Real GDP

200

Emerging
economies

+86%

180
Traffic growth

160

+53%
World

140

+32%
Developed
economies

120

+18%
100
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Real GDP in 2005 US$

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Economy spending less time in recession even

through recent crises
% of time spent in recession at world level

45%

8 years of
recession

30%

15%
<2.5 years of
recession

0%
1919-1939

years

1919

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1940-1962

1963-1985

1986-2011

2011

Source: Kharas and Gertz, Airbus

Leading to a larger Global Middle Class

Global Middle Class*
(Millions of people)

5,048
X2

5 000
739

4 000

3,413

3 000

560
3 377

2,101
2 000
1 000
0

419

Other
X5

Asia-Pacific
North America

1 889

Europe & CIS

746
265

263

254

671

701

678

2011

2021

2031

7,000
30%

7,700
44%

8,400
60%

World population
% of World population

* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

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Page 7

Source: UN population division, Airbus

World urban population expected to rise from 3.5

billion people today up to 5 billion by 2030
10

Population (billions)

Urbanisation rate
History

Forecast

100%

Urban population

90%

Rural population

80%

Urbanisation rate

70%
60%

60%

51%

70%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1950

1960

1970

Urban population: 1.3B

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus

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1980

1990

2.3B

2000

2010

3.5B

2020

2030

5.0B

2040

2050

6.4B

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus

Visiting friends and relatives is a key driver of traffic

growth
2010 world inter-regional migration corridors per sending and receiving region (million persons)
North America
Africa
Latin
America

Continued demand for VFR traffic:

>215M live outside their country of birth
700K foreign students studying in the US
Asia
Africa

Europe

Visiting friends and relatives remained

much more stable than business travel

Asia

North
America

North America and Europe as largest

destinations of immigration

Asia-Pacific growing as a destination for

Europe

immigrants

Latin America
Region definition according to United Nations; Asia including Oceania, countries of the Middle East and countries of CIS,
Europe including Russia

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Source: Sabre (annualized September 2011 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Emerging economies drive strong travel growth

Trips* per capita - 2011
10
United
USA
Kingdom
Germany
France

1
China

China & India

Average 2031

0,1

India

China & India

Average 2011

China & India

average propensity
to travel

4.6x
In 2031 vs 2011

0,01

0,001
0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2011 nominal GDP per capita ($US)

* Passengers originating from respective country

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Source: ICAO, EIA, IHS Global Insight

Airlines are becoming more efficient

Unit cost (cents/RPK in 2011 US$)
25

History

Forecast
Other costs
Fuel cost

20
15
10
5
0
1981
% cost
from fuel

1986

29%

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

1991

13%

1996

2001

13%

2006

2011

33%

2016

2021

36%

2026

2031

40%

Source: IHS CERA, Airbus

High oil prices here for the long-term

Brent oil price (current US$ per bbl)

History

140

Forecast

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980

Average price in the year displayed

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1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Source: CASE, fleet in service as of end of year

Strong increase in average seat capacity of aircraft

Evolution of average seat capacity of single-aisle and twin-aisle aircraft on order and future fleet in service*
20%

16%

12%

8%

Single-aisle aircraft:

Single-aisle aircraft:

+10%

+15%

Twin-aisle aircraft:

Twin-aisle aircraft:

+8%

+17%

2010 vs. 2000

2026 vs. 2000

Backlog

Backlog

4%

0%
2000
-4%aircraft 100 seats
* Passenger
** Estimated 2026 backlog (2026 2030 new aircraft deliveries)

Page 13
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2010

2026**

42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long

haul passengers per day,
2011 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers

>

90%

of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via
42 cities

42
Aviation
Mega-cities
(2011)

Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres

Traffic as of month of September; Source: Airbus
Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
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 and by 2031 it will be over 90

2031 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers

>

95%

of long-haul traffic
on routes to/from/via
92 cities

92
Aviation
Mega-cities
(2031)

Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres

Traffic as of month of September. Source: Airbus
Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
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Source: Airbus, OAG

Long-haul growing faster than short-haul

Evolution of offered seats and number of served city pairs, long haul and short haul market, relative to 1995 (100%)
200%
Short haul served city pairs
Short haul seats offered
Long haul served city pairs
Long haul seats offered

2011 vs. 1995

Long haul seats offered

+93%

175%
2011 vs. 1995
Short haul seats offered

+58%

150%

2011 vs. 1995

Long haul served city pairs

+42%
2011 vs. 1995
Short haul served city pairs

125%

+25%

100%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Traffic as of month of September
Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;
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Airbus Global Market Forecast

A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast
Market Research
Trends Analysis
Consumer & Travel
Surveys
Tourism
Migration
Traffic flows
Passenger demands

Airlines
Business Models
Operations
Competition
Geopolitics

Governments &
Regulators
Liberalization/
deregulation
Investments and
constraints
Geopolitics

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Forecast
Traffic
Economics and
Econometrics
Fuel costs
Yields
Load Factors
Trade and Value of
Goods

Network
Development
Route planning
Origin and
destination demand
Population centers

Fleet trends
Aircraft economics
Utilization
Fleet age and
retirements

Source: ICAO, Airbus

Air travel remains a growth market

World annual RPK (trillion)
14

ICAO
total traffic

20-year
world annual
traffic growth

Airbus
GMF 2012

4.7%

2021-2031
4.4%

12
10

2011-2021
5.1%

8
6

Air traffic has doubled

every 15 years

Air traffic will double

in the next 15 years

2
0
1971

1981

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

1991

2001

2011

2021

2031

Source: Airbus GMF

Asia-Pacific airlines to lead in world traffic by 2031

World RPK airline traffic
% of 2031
world RPK

% of 2011
world RPK

20-year
growth

28%

5.4%

32%

Europe

27%

4.1%

24%

North America

27%

3.3%

20%

Middle East

7%

7.3%

11%

20-year
world annual
traffic growth

5%

5.9%

6%

4.7%

3%

5.4%

4%

3%

5.0%

3%

Asia-Pacific

1 000
2011 traffic

Latin America
CIS
Africa

AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

2012-2031 traffic

Source: Airbus GMF

Domestic PRC and Domestic India lead the growth in

RPKs 2011 to 2031
2012 2031
CAGR

2031 Share of
World traffic

7.0%

10.4%

Domestic USA

2.2%

10.4%

Intra Western Europe

3.1%

7.5%

Western Europe - USA

3.7%

5.3%

Domestic India

9.9%

2.9%

Western Europe - South America

5.1%

2.3%

Asia - PRC

6.5%

2.2%

Intra Asia

6.0%

2.2%

Asia - Western Europe

4.1%

2.1%

Domestic Brazil

6.5%

2.1%

Western Europe - Middle East

5.4%

2.0%

Indian Sub Continent - Middle East

6.5%

1.9%

Western Europe - PRC

5.7%

1.9%

Central Europe - Western Europe

5.6%

1.9%

Domestic Asia

5.4%

1.8%

Western Europe - North Africa

5.2%

1.5%

Asia - Middle East

5.6%

1.5%

Largest 20 flows in 2031, by RPK (billion)

DomesticPRC
PRC 2011 traffic
Domestic

2012-2031 traffic

PRC - USA

6.2%

1.4%

Japan - USA

3.7%

1.3%

Domestic Russia

5.0%

1.3%

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500

1 000

1 500

2 000

Global Market Forecast 2012: Highlights

GMF 2012 key numbers and 20-year change

World Fleet Forecast

2011

2031

% Change

RPK (trillions)

5.1

12.8

150%

15,560

32,550

109%

Passenger aircraft fleet

New passenger aircraft deliveries

27,350

FTK (billion)

195.1

508.0

160%

Freighter aircraft fleet

1,620

2,940

82%

New freighter aircraft deliveries

Total New Aircraft Deliveries

Market value of $4 trillion

Traffic carried by domiciled carriers, fleet in service with domiciled carriers
Passenger aircraft 100 seats, Freight aircraft 10t
Source: Global Insight, United Nations, Airbus GMF
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850

28,200

Source: Airbus GMF

20-year demand for 28,200 new passenger and freight

aircraft
20-year deliveries of new passenger and freight aircraft

19,520 single-aisle aircraft

6,970 twin-aisle aircraft

1,710 very large aircraft

28,200 new aircraft

Market value of $4 trillion
Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)
Jet freight aircraft (> 10 tons)
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Summary
North
Latin
Asia-Pacific
Middle
Europe
Africa
World
CIS
America
America
East

20 Year Aircraft
Demand
30

(Thousands)

25

Africa
CIS
Latin
America
Middle
East

20

2031 RPKs
(Trillions)

14
12
10

North
America

15
6

Europe

10

28,200
1,240
1,960
6,200
5,840
9,870
2,110
980 Aircraft
Aircraft
Aircraft
5

Traffic by
domicile:
Source: Airbus

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>12
20%
24%
32%
11%
3%trillion
4%
5%
of
of2031
2031RPKs
World
Worldin
RPKs
2031

AsiaPacific

0
Aircraft Demand

RPKs

Thank you