OPINIONLEAD

Published:April10,201501:05IST|Updated:April10,201508:14IST
April10,2015

IrandealspellsgoodtidingsforIndia
JAYANTPRASAD

AP
IranianscelebrateaframeworkagreementonIran'snuclearprogrammebetweentheircountryandsixworldpowers,inastreetin
TehranonApril3,2015.

JayantPrasad
Atatimewhensuccessful,negotiatedoutcomestoanyintractableinternationaldisputehavebecomeararity,theunderstandingreached
betweenIranandtheE3+3(France,GermanyandtheUnitedKingdom+China,theRussianFederationandtheUnitedStates)isa
remarkableachievement.Aresultofpoliticalresolveanddeftnegotiations,thenucleardealissettoendoverthreeandahalfdecadesof
unremittinghostilitybetweenIranandtheU.S.
TheannouncedframeworkrestrainsIransnuclearprogrammeitdoesnoteliminateit.ItallowsIranaccesstonuclearenergyforexclusively
peacefulpurposesandacomprehensivereleasefromallsanctions.ThespontaneousstreetcelebrationsacrossIraniancitiestestifiedits
peoplessupportforanagreementthatwillreconnectIranwiththeworld.
Keyparameters

ThedetailsoftheagreementcurrentlybeingdraftedwillbespeltoutbytheendofJuneintheJointComprehensivePlanofAction(JCPOA).
TheframeworkoutlinesthatlimitswillbeplacedonIransenrichmentcapacity,levelandstockpilesoverthenext10to15years.Iranwill
maintainnootherenrichmentfacilityexcepttheoneatNatanz,whereitwilluseonlyits6,104firstgenerationcentrifuges(lessthanathird
oftheirexistingnumber).IransundergroundandfortifiedfacilityatFordow,whichtheU.S.initiallywantedtoscrapandseal,willbe
convertedintoanuclearphysicsandtechnologycentre.
Iranwasbuildinga40MWheavywaterreactorinArak,fuelledbynaturaluraniumandestimatedtoproduceninekilogrammesofweapons
gradeplutoniumannuallyshouldIranacquirereprocessingtechnologytoseparateplutoniumfromthespentfuel.TheredesignedArakplant
willensureitdoesnotproduceplutonium.Therewillbenoreprocessing,andthespentfuelwillbeexported.
ByprovidingtheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)enhancedaccesstoitsnuclearfacilities,includingfulllifecyclecradleto
coffinmonitoringofnuclearmaterialsandcomponents,Iranhasestablisheditsbonafidesaboutabjuringfromtheacquisitionofnuclear
weaponsintheforeseeablefuture.Inreturn,Iranshallhaveaccesstointernationalcooperationforciviliannuclearenergy,includingthe
supplyofpowerandresearchreactors.
IransgreatestimmediategainwillbethesimultaneousterminationofthesanctionsleviedbythesixIranspecificSecurityCouncil
resolutionsassoonasitimplementsitscommitments.AlsoslatedtogoaretheadditionalsanctionsimposedbytheU.S.,theEuropeanUnion
andsomeothers,whichhadcrippledIransinternationalmarketaccessandeconomyanddisrupteditsenergy,shipping,transportationand
financialsectors.IftheCongressdoesnotrevokethesesanctions,U.S.PresidentBarackObamamightusehiswaiverauthoritytofreeIranof
theireffect.
Changingregionallandscape
Iranhasgainedstrategicspace,evendominance,initswesternperiphery,overthelastdozenyearsastheunintendedbeneficiaryoftheU.S.
interventioninIraq.Withitsabundantnaturalandhumanresourcesfreedfromtheburdensofsanctions,Iranseconomywillbeunfettered
anditspotentialunlocked.Asaconsequence,Iranwillbecomemoreselfassuredinitsinteractionswiththeworld.
WithmutualenemyimagesslowlyfadingmanyintheU.S.hadregardedIranasthecoreoftheaxisofevilandtheclergyinIranhad
brandedtheU.S.asTheGreatSatanthereconfiguredU.S.IrantieswillinevitablyrestructurethesecurityarchitectureoftheGulfand
theWestAsianregion.TheU.S.willleanonIrantoseekitscooperationincontendingwithahostofchallengesinIranscontiguity,primarily
thecombatagainstDaeshinIraqandSyria,thewarinYemen,andthestruggletoestablishpeaceandstabilisationofAfghanistan.
IransgeostrategiclocationmakesitanintrinsicpartofIndiassecurityandeconomicspace.AstrongerandmoregloballyintegratedIranwill
beanassetforIndia.IndiahadrightlydisregardedtheStatementofPolicyattachedtothe2006HydeActenjoiningIndiatosanctionand
containIranforitseffortstoacquirenuclearweapons.DespitecriticsofIndiawithintheU.S.establishmentusingthisasalitmustestfor
IndiaU.S.relations,IndiarejectedsanctionsnotmandatedbytheSecurityCouncil.
ImplicationsforIndia
IransharesitsborderswithAfghanistanandPakistan,whichcontainIslamistterroristgroupsthatactagainstbothIndiaandIran.These
includetheJundullah,theLashkareTaiba,andtheHaqqaninetwork,inturnassociatedwiththealQaeda,theTaliban,andeventhe
PakistanArmy.IndiaandIran,therefore,haveaconsonanceofinterestsinsupportingthestabilisationofAfghanistan.Thehistoryoftheir
associationgoesbacktothesupporttheytogetherextendedtoCommanderAhmadShahMassoudwhenhewascombatingtheTaliban.Like
India,IranisconstructivelyinvestedinAfghanistanandcanplayamuchmoresignificantrolethereasitgainsstrengthinthepostsanctions
period.
IndiaandIranarepoisedtoinkanintergovernmentalagreementontheChabaharport,whereIndiaisinvesting,inthefirstphase,amodest
amountof$85milliontoequiptwoofitsexistingberthsforcontainerandmultipurposecargoshipmentsmeantforAfghanistan.Indias
footprintinChabaharwillinitiallybelightanditsinvestmentcanbesteppedupasitscargopotentialincreases.
Fordecades,IndiahasbeenexploringconnectivityoptionsforAfghanistan,CentralAsia,andRussiabytheoverlandroutethroughIran.Due
tolackofabetteravailableoption,IndianexportershavebegunusingthededicatedChinesefacilityforexportstoCentralAsiaatthe
LianyungangportthisisconnectedbywhatChinacallsitsuninterruptedraillinktoAlmaty,alongthealignmentoftheNewEurasian
LandBridge,partofitsOneBeltOneRoadinitiative.IransBandarAbbasport,conceivedasthehubfortheInternationalNorthSouth
TransportCorridor(INSTC),remains,nevertheless,theshortestandmosteconomicalroutefromIndiatoCentralAsia,RussiaandEurope.
India,IranandRussiaoriginallysignedtheINSTCConventioninDecember2000,andninemorecountrieshavesincejoinedit.Dryruns
conductedlastJulyfromtheNhavaShevaportinMaharashtraontwotraderoutes,onetoAstrakhaninRussia,viaBandarAbbasand
Amirabad,andanothertoBakuinAzerbaijan,viaBandarAbbasandAstara,showthatthesecanreduceshipmentcostsby$2,500per15tons
ofcargo.IndiamustseizetheopportunitytooperationalisetheINSTCbyworkingwithIranandotherinterestedstakeholders.
Energysecurity
Asthecountryholdingtheworldsfourthlargestoilandthesecondlargestnaturalgasreserves,IrancomplementsIndia,currentlythe
worldsfourthlargestconsumerandnetimporterofpetroleumproducts.Iranslippedfromthesecondtotheseventhlargestsourceofcrude
oilimportstoIndiabetween200809(21.81millionmetrictons)and201213(13.14millionmetrictons).Withindigenousproductionflatat
lessthanamillionbarrelsperday(bbl/d),Indiasoildemandisexpectedtomorethandoublefromitspresentlevelsto8.2bbl/dby2040.
McKinseypredictsthatby2030,Indiawillhaveaprimaryenergyimportdependenceof51percent,comparedtooneand20percentforthe
U.S.andChina.
AsIndiasmostproximateoilexportingcountry,IransroleinIndiasenergysecurityremainsimportant.Theoversupplyandlowerpricesof

oilandgasmakeIndiaequallyvaluabletoIranasanassured,longtermbuyer.Indiacouldtakeafreshlookattheprospectsofagaspipeline
orliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)importsfromIran,asalsoinvestingindownstreamprojectsforpetrochemicalsandgasbasedureaplantsin
Iran.IndianfirmsneedtobemorenimblefootedtodealwithWesterncompetitorsrushingtoIran,asalsowithIranianpartnersadeptat
drivingahardbargain.
IndiaIrandefencecooperationcouldbegivengreatercontentthroughaJointWorkingGroupondefence.Thiswasneversetup,though
envisionedunderaforwardlookingIndiaIrandefencememorandumofunderstanding(MoU)concludedin2001.Besidesongoingtraining
andportcalls,Indiacouldextenditssupportforhydrographyandmoreintensenavalinteractions.Theestablishedtraditionofexchanges
betweentheNationalSecurityCouncilsandAdvisorsofthetwosidescouldproveusefulinthiscontext.
AcongruenceofregionalinterestsdoesnotbyitselftranslateintoupgradedstrategicrelationsbetweenIndiaandIran.Itwillrequire
patienceandpersistencetraitspossessedbyIraniannegotiatorsinamplemeasure.
Curiously,thekeychallengetoIndiawillbesimilartothatwhichconfrontstheU.S.andotherglobalandregionalpowershowtonurturea
relationshipwitharesurgentIran,withoutadverselyaffectingtieswiththeArabGulfcountriesledbySaudiArabia,andIsrael.Thetrick,
saysaseniorIndianofficial,istobalanceonathreeleggedstoolwithdifferentsizedlegs.
IndiahasimportantequitiesinArabGulfcountries.Collectively,theyarehometoalmostsevenmillionIndians,thelargestsourceofIndias
imports,includingenergysupplies,itssecondlargestexportdestination,andagrowingsourceofremittancesandinvestments.Indiawill
havetodemonstrateitsdiplomaticdexterityinmanagingthisdifficultbalancingactasitrebuildsitsrelationswithIran.
(JayantPrasad,aformerdiplomat,iscurrentlyaVisitingFellowattheResearchandInformationSystemforDevelopingCountries,New
Delhi,NonResidentFellowattheCenterfortheAdvancedStudyofIndia,UniversityofPennsylvania,andAdvisorattheDelhiPolicy
Group.)
Printableversion|Apr10,201512:01:02PM|http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/leadarticleirandealspellsgoodtidingsfor
india/article7085906.ece
TheHindu