Project Management Success and the Learning Curve

Joe Caruso
Published by Project Times, Spring 2002

(Authors note: although originally written to address projects, the recommendations

presented in this article are equally applicable to processes Joe)
A project is a unique venture which makes use of standard processes that are repetitive in
nature. As we repeat these processes and gain more experience, our expectations are that
costs and resources required to perform them will decrease. This is the premise behind
the Learning Curve (or Progress Functions), applicable to both people and organizations.
It is not theory; it has been observed in practice where repetitive processes exist, such as
in aerospace manufacturing. Therefore, as we and our organizations obtain more
experience reusing existing project management processes, our project management costs
decrease right? Is your answer I dont know, or No? Is it really just theory then?
Lets review some Learning Curve fundamentals, conditions behind receiving Learning
Curve benefits, and how to identify causes behind loss or lack of learning and what to do
about them.

Fig. 1 - Learning Curve Example

1.2
Hours Per Unit

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

10

20

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40

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60

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Units Produced

Learning curves reflect a reduction in direct labour or cost as the number of units
delivered increases. Figure 1 shows a theoretical 85% learning curve. Each time the
number of units produced doubles, direct labour or cost is reduced by 15%. Beyond the
64th unit, the hours required start to level off.
This does not happen by accident. There are some conditions behind these results: 1) Best
practices are identified; 2) They are documented in hardcopy; 3) They are communicated
beyond the individual through the organization; and 4) They are applied consistently.

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Project Management Success and the Learning Curve

Joe Caruso
Published by Project Times, Spring 2002

Learning curve benefits are not guaranteed. Practice does not make perfect perfect
practice makes perfect. A quick question: can you identify the project management best
practices documentation in your organization? Are they applied consistently?
Not to worry. We are managing our costs as well as anyone else. Surprise! Most likely,
your costs are going up. There are other factors at work.
Fig. 2 - Broken Learning Curve
1.2

Other Factors at Work

Hours Per Unit

1
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0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0

10

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70

Units Produced

The Learning Curve in Figure 2 shows learning not only stopped but regressed, as the
organization or individual returned to earlier levels. But I followed the conditions, you
might argue. What happened? Change, thats what happened.
A closer look at best practices required to achieve Learning Curve benefits include:
Personnel are trained and retained.
Processes and technology remain relatively unchanged.
Time is provided to deliver within quality specifications.
The Work Environment remains relatively stable and energy is committed to best
practices.
What happens when these factor are missing:
Personnel Resignations and downsizing result in learning walking out the door and
a hiccup in the learning curve.
Process and technology standards - a change can render past learning useless.
Retraining is required. Time to deliver increases; costs increase.
Time reducing available time usually causes quality to suffer. And rather than the
desired beneficial learning, coping and firefighting behaviour may evolve.
Work Environment Re-organizations, inadequate tools can sap energy required for
the application, monitoring and control of best practices.

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Project Management Success and the Learning Curve

Joe Caruso
Published by Project Times, Spring 2002

Many of these assumptions are also interdependent. As you replace team members with
new personnel, the work environment changes. New personnel require training, time to
adapt, and consequently, the project requires more time to deliver.
Figure 3 Cause and Effect for Learning Has Stopped

Time

Machine

Method

Material

Learning
Has
Stopped
Energy

Measurement

Personnel

Environment

How to remedy your specific situation? A Cause and Effect analysis for Learning Has
Stopped (Figure 3) will provide insight. Many of the stated causes can potentially be
behind your situation.
What happens when change is constant? Figure 4 shows a scenario where an organization
or individual encounters change on a regular basis. An elongated sawtooth pattern
emerges. Learn, unlearn, learn, unlearn, etc. Considering the pace of change today, this
happens in many organizations. In some industries, it is worse than others. Consider
project management in the IT field. Constantly changing software tools (C++, Java,
Oracle, Sybase, ERP), delivery environments (mainframe, PCs, web) have historically
produced the sawtooth pattern. The ability to accurately estimate does not evolve.
Projects take the hit on missed deadlines, descoping or reduced quality.

Fig. 4 - Sawtooth Pattern

Hours Per Unit

1.2
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Units Produced

Page 3 of 4

50

60

70

Project Management Success and the Learning Curve

Joe Caruso
Published by Project Times, Spring 2002

So what do you do to better your competition? First, identify, document, communicate

and consistently apply your best practices. Second, be selective in implementing change.
How will that change impact your project management learning curve? Ensure the value
is there. And third, accept there will always be change and we may be continuously
learning and relearning.

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