MEMORANDUM

TO: FRIENDS OF JOHN McCAIN

FROM: BILL MCINTURFF, PARTNER

SUBJECT: RECENT POLL RESULTS IN ARIZONA

DATE: JANUARY 29, 2010

METHODOLOGY:
On behalf of Friends of John McCain, Public Opinion Strategies conducted a statewide survey of 600
Republican Primary voters in Arizona January 11-13, 2010. The margin of error for 600 interviews is
+4.0%.

The sample of 600 respondents was randomly drawn from the AZ statewide voter file. Eighty-one percent
(81%) of the sample was made up of Republican primary voters, while nineteen percent (19%) of the
sample was made up of Independent voters who are likely to vote in the 2010 Arizona GOP Primary.
About half of these Independent voters had previously voted in one or more Republican Primary and the
other half were categorized as potential GOP Primary voters based on their voter history and self-described
likelihood of voting in this GOP Primary.

Further, respondents were screened to include only those voters who were not employed by a newspaper,
television or radio station, a political party, or by a candidate for political office, and were very or
somewhat likely to vote in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Arizona between John McCain and
J.D. Hayworth. Geographically, the sample reflects the population of likely GOP Primary voters based on
voter history by county and by Congressional District within Maricopa County.

1. John McCain enjoys a very high favorable rating among Republican primary voters.

IMAGE McCain Hayworth

Very Favorable 41% 27%
Total Favorable 82% 60%
Total Unfavorable 17% 14%

• This is a “mature” election for so early in the primary as 93% of voters have heard of J.D.
Hayworth and almost three out of four (74%) have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion of
him personally.

2. Currently, McCain enjoys a comfortable 59%-30% edge over J.D. Hayworth on the ballot.

• Senator McCain not only enjoys a comfortable lead, but has a significant edge on intensity as well
with 37% “definitely voting” for McCain versus 17% “definitely voting” for Hayworth.

• This very positive ratio on intensity is important as it indicates the depth of support Senator
McCain enjoys with Republican primary voters.
 • Forty-five percent (45%) of those interviewed describe themselves as being “very conservative”
and the race is quite competitive among these voters. However, Senator McCain’s support among
“somewhat conservative” and “moderate/liberal” primary voters is so large, it builds a comfortable
margin.

• Further, Senator McCain’s margin among Independents who participate in a Republican primary
also helps build his majority in this campaign.

Initial Ballot Test

McCain Hayworth Difference
Overall 59% 30% 29%
Ideology
Very Conservative 43% 44% -1%
Somewhat Conservative 64% 26% 38%
Moderate/Liberals 84% 8% 76%
Party
Republicans 58% 32% 26%
Independents 66% 23% 43%

3. After hearing more information about both candidates, ballot support for Senator McCain
increases.

• Voters were then presented with a campaign narrative that included positive information about
both candidates as well as information that is likely to be raised by critics in a Republican primary
campaign.

• The survey tested what critics might say about Senator McCain’s voting record on immigration,
taxes, and the environment as well as positive statements about his efforts opposing President
Obama’s health care plan and his record of accomplishment on behalf of Arizona. It also tested a
roughly equal number of positive statements about Hayworth along with statements that would be
raised by critics of his voting record. These statements included information about former
Congressman Hayworth’s support for earmarks and ethics concerns raised in his unsuccessful
2006 re-election campaign.

• After hearing this back and forth narrative about the two candidates, support for former
Congressman Hayworth drops and there is a net eight point shift towards Senator McCain.

BALLOT SHIFT McCain Hayworth Difference

Initial Ballot 59% 30% 29%
Final Ballot 64% 27% 37%
Difference 5% -3% 8%

• Through the course of Senator McCain’s career and especially having run and won the nomination
of the Republican party for president, primary voters in Arizona say they are well aware of what
critics might say about his voting record. Conversely, the information about former Congressman
Hayworth’s voting record and ethical allegations is comparatively new information – which is
among the reasons it impacts and limits his ballot support.