Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
COOPERATIVE
FIRMS
Table of Contents
Project Schedule and Progress
P3
P4
Route Alignment
P5
Demand Forecast
P7
P 10
Project Effects
P 11
P 23
P24
P25
P 26
P 28
Implementation Schedule
P 30
2015
Construction
Follow Up
Oct. 17th
MoM
Engineering Service
Inauguration
Phase I
Phase II
E/S
Preliminary analysis
on JKT-BDG-SBY
Feasibility of JKT-BDG
Demand forecast
Comparison of
technical spec.
Route alignment
Location of station
Preliminary
environment and
social consideration
Implementing
structure and
scheme
Economic and
financial analysis
Review of route
alignment
Detailed technical
and engineering
studies
Operation and
maintenance
Detailed project
implementation plan
Detailed cost
estimation
EIA report/ LARAP
Detailed economic
and financial analysis
Detailed design
PPP design
Tender documents
preparation
Tender assistance
Follow up and
preparation are
essential to go
to Phase II.
France
Spain
China
South Korea
1964
1981
1992
2007
2004
Class
E5
TGV-POS
S112
CHR3C
KTX-Sancheon
320km/h
320km/h
300km/h
300km/h
300km/h
Output/Passenger capacity
13.1kW
26.0KW
22.0kW
15.8kW
24.2kW
0.62t
1.18t
0.89t
0.76t
1.11t
Maximum Gradient
35
35 *
12.5
20
15
Earthquake Frequency*
29
Earthquake Experience
Much
Little
Little
Little
Little
Tokyo
1,529mm
Paris
653mm
Madrid
437mm
Beijing
534mm
Seoul
1,429mm
Topography and
weather
Vehicle performance
Country
Maximum speed
(in commercial operation)
Annual Rainfall*
Route Alignment
Dukuh Atas (underground) is advisable for Jakarta Sta. due to ridership
and connection with other transportation.
1.Jakarta Kota
Selection of the
Candidate Sites
Commercial and
business district
Discussion with
the related
organizations
2.Kemayoran
3.Gambir
Primary
Selection
Secondary
Selection
Technical aspect
Economic aspect
Environmental
aspect
4.Pasar Senen
5.Dukuh Atas
6.Manggarai
7.Senayan
8.Halim
Route Alignment
Only 37 minutes from Jakarta to Bandung
Station Name
Distance
from
Jakarta
Jakarta
0km
(underground)
(Manggarai*1)
(underground)
(3.5km)
Bekasi
26.1km
Cikarang
42.0km
(Karawang*2)
(59.3km)
(Walini*3)
(100.6km)
Bandung
128.5km
Gedebage
140.0km
Stations to be opened
in future
Embankm
ent,
24.7%
TBM
(Shield
Tunnel),
10.0%
NATM,
20.1%
Cut &
Cover,
0.4%
Bridge,
1.1%
Cutting,
16.9%
Viaduct,
26.9%
Demand Forecast
Result of Demand Forecast
350.000
323.000
300.000
JKT-SBY
JKT-BDG
Conv. Rail
252.000
250.000
5%
200.000
148.000
150.000
100.000
Air
18%
Bus
Car
12%
65%
161.000
115.000
44.000
50.000
68.000
0
2020
2030
year
2040
2050
HSR Fare
Car
Jakarta - Bandung
Jakarta - Surabaya
Rp 200,000
Rp 800,000
Demand Forecast
Comparison on Transportation Density
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Transportation Density
Type
Line
Distance
Yearly
Passenger
Volume
Year of Statistics
Java (Study)
Jakarta Bandung
140 km
16,060,000
2020 (Estimated)
Java (Study)
Jakarta Bandung
140 km
54,020,000
2050 (Estimated)
KTX
Gyeongbu
412 km
15,220,000
2009
TGV
Atlantique
290 km
32,000,000
2008
339 km
46,310,000
2013
515 km
154,820,000
2013
(Pax/day/km)
Taiwan HSR
Shinkansen
Tokaido
Java HSR will have a high level transportation density among the world wide HSR
Comparison on Fare and Wage
Indonesia
Taiwan
Japan
DKI
Low income
(2013)
DKI
High income
(2013)
All Area
(2007)
All Area
(1964)
All Area
(1992)
HSR Fare
(A)
Wage/day
(B)
(C)=(A)/(B)
Remarks
Rp. 200,000
Rp. 204,501
1.0
Rp. 200,000
Rp. 445,517
0.4
NT$ 1,490
NT$ 1,480
1.0
\ 2,480
\ 1,191
2.1
\ 14,430
\ 13,620
1.1
Non-agricultural
low income level
urban household
Non-agricultural
high income level
urban household
DKI Jakarta
6.6
West Java
265.1*1
2,941
271.7
3,188
Total
247
*1: This figure includes 31ha of irrigated paddy field and 32ha of forest.
Timeline for land acquisition (Phase II + min 319 / max 583 working days)
Planning
(Phase II)
Preparation
(max 289 days)
Implementation
(max 257 days)
Handover
(37 days)
Civil Works
140
Disaster Prevention Equipment
1
Track Works
140
Station Works
1
Depot/ Workshop
1
Electric Facility
1
System/Automatic Fare Collection
1
Signaling and Telecommunications Facility
1
Rolling Stock
84
Maintenance Equipment
1
Preparation for Operation
1
Construction/Procurement Cost (sub-total)
140
(2) Land Acquisition Cost
272
(3) Consulting Service Cost
1
(4) Management Cost
1
(3)x 10%
(5) Contingency
1
(1)(3) - Rolling Stock Costx 5%
(6) Value-added Taxes
1
(1)(3)x 10%
Project Cost
140
Project Cost (USD)
140
Project Cost (%)
(1) - (Rolling Stock + Maintenance Eq. + Preparation for OP.)
:
{(1) - (Rolling Stock + Maintenance Eq. + Preparation for OP.)} 5%
F/C
L/C
Total
(million USD)
(billion IDR) (million USD)
km
916
16,253
2,591
LS
19
10
20
km
131
1,924
329
LS
78
617
141
LS
228
1,399
372
LS
440
1,312
576
LS
35
0
35
LS
224
1,364
364
cars
360
0
360
LS
22
0
22
LS
10
98
20
km
2,463
22,977
4,831
ha
0
3,962
408
LS
104
1,144
221
LS
0
215
22
LS
110
1,206
235
LS
0
4,902
505
km
2,677
34,406
6,223
km
2,677
3,547
6,223
43.0
57.0
100.0
The base month for the calculation is March 2014.
1 USD=9,701IDR=99.24JPY
10
Project Effects
Effect of Operation
Effect of Construction
Investment
HSR Development
Economic Benefit
Travel
Time
Saving
O&M
VOC*
Reduction
Increase
in Consumption
Increase
in demand
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
2.400
2020
4.500
2030
6.900
8.000
2040
2050
11
Evaluation of Options
PPP-based Model: Preferred
Vertical Separation Model: Alternative (with establishment of two SOEs)
=> Similar to the structure of Japan and France
Implementation Structure
A new authority (High Speed Railway Authority) under the MoT
Need the authority for technical control of HSR
A new SOE engaged in HSR infrastructure development
An entity that can be a borrower of external debt
Introduction of new technology (i.e. standards, safety control, paradigm) that is
different from the conventional lines
JICA Study Team
12
On-lending/
transfer for
E/S
MoF
MoT (DGR )
Recurrent
cost for the
new
authority
Establishing a new
authority for HSR and
PMU
TA Provider
PMU
Capital Injection
GCA
: Financial Flow
Direct Appointment
SoE
(Development and Asset
Management Company)
: Other control/permit/contract
: PPP procurement process
Consulting Services
Phase-1: Engineering Services
*** Basic Design, Detail Design
*** Project Modality Design
*** Tender Document Preparation
& Tender Assistance for Civil
Works, Procurement and PPP
Technical Support
contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
Debt
Business Entity
SPV
(Operating Company)
Tender
Process
Financial Institutions
Investors
Equity
Property
Development
(Station Building, etc.)
Associated Business
O&M of HSR
(Retail, advertising,
etc.)
13
[Stage 2: Construction ]
Donor
Repayment of
ODA Loan for
Engineering
Services
Government
Guarantee
ODA Loan for
Construction
and
Procurement
(Direct
Lending)
Proponent
MoF
Recurrent
cost for the
new unit
Government
Budget for
Construction
MoT (DGR )
PMU
Supervising
SoE
TA Provider
: Financial Flow
: Other control/permit/contract
: PPP contract
Consulting Services
Technical Support
contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
Debt
Business Entity
SPV
(Operating Company)
Supervising
Financial Institutions
Investors
Equity
Matching by SOE
Property
Development
(Station Building, etc.)
O&M of HSR
(Pre-operation)
Associated Business
(Retail, advertising,
etc.)
14
Negotiating
fare changes
MoF
MoT (DGR )
Repayment of
ODA Loan for
Engineering
Services
Recurrent
cost for the
new unit
Government
Guarantee
Repayment
of ODA Loan
for
Construction
and
Procurement
SoE
(Development and Asset
Management Company)
PMU
TA Provider
: Financial Flow
: Other control/permit/contract
: PPP contract
Sharing the
remaining Fare Box
Revenue with the
government
Availability Payment
Technical Support
contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
Repayment
Business Entity
SPV
(Operating Company)
Asset Leasing
Property
Development
Charge
Service
Customers
O&M of HSR
(Full operation)
Fare
Service
Passengers
Financial Institutions
Investors
Dividend
Associated Business
(Retail, advertising,
etc.)
Charge
Service
Customers
15
Function/Action
Stage 1,2,3
HSR Authority
(HSR-A)
SOE
Stage 1
Stage 1
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 1,2,3
Stage 3
Stage 3
Stage 1, 2
SPV
Stage 1
Stage 2,3
Stage 2,3
Stage 1,2,3
Stage 3
Stage 3
Stage 2,3
16
Risk Allocation
State Govt.
HSR-A
SOE
SPV
XX
XX
Preparation Stage
Establishment of HSR-A and SOE
XX
Land Acquisition
XX
XX
(coordination)
XX
Procurement of SPV
XX
XX
17
Risk Allocation
State Govt.
HSR-A
SOE
(coordination)
XX
SPV
Stage 2: Construction
Land development
Design fault
XX
XX
XX
XX
Commissioning
XX
XX
XX
(Support)
Stage 3: Operation
Inspection before leasing
XX
Availability of facilities
XX
Performance of services
XX
Ridership
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
XX
18
NOT to be separated
19
Private Model
Gov
SOE
SPV
Gov
SPV
Sub-Total
9.67
45.23
5.89
3.96
56.83
- Land Acquisition
6.5%
- Engineering Services
(ES-I)
1.2%
- Management Cost 0.1%
- VAT exemption
8.2%
NOT Feasible
Cash Flow for Private Model
Land Acquisition
16%
74%
10%
6%
94%
60.79
60.79
EIRR (%)
12.50
12.50
FIRR (%)
0.97
14.93
4.90
109.69
22.65
DSCR (Minimum)
1.52
0.18
Loan conditions
SOE: interest rate 0.1%, 40 years repayment period
(10 years grace period
(assuming conditions of STEP Loan)
SPV: interest rate 14%, 10 years repayment period
Debt equity ratio of SPV: 85 - 15
20
Item
Embankment
Civil Works
Cutting
U type Retaining Wall
Viaduct (Regular Bridge)
Bridge
Tunnel (Mountain Tunneling)
Shield Tunnel
Cut and Cover
Transverse
Service Road
Environmental Program
Sub-Total
Disaster Prevention Equipment
Track Works
Station Works
Depot/ Workshop
Electric Facility
System/Automatic Fare Collection
Signaling and Telecommunications Facility
Rolling Stock
Maintenance Equipment
Preparation for Operation
(1) Construction/Procurement Cost
(2) Land Acquisition Cost
(3) Consulting Service Cost
(4) Management Cost
(5) Contingency
(6) Value-added Taxes
Total Project Cost
Percentage to Total Project Cost
SOE
2,114
766
167
8,178
419
5,266
6,402
881
422
358
165
25,138
196
3,193
Pattern 2
SPV
Gov
SOE
2,114
766
167
8,178
419
5,266
6,402
881
422
358
165
25,138
1,371
3,611
5,584
339
1,269
5,584
339
3,535
3,490
3,535
3,490
0
3,962
680
68
34
4,921
9,665
16%
41,550
216
196
5,317
1,397
139
2,147
266
27
279
45,233
74%
5,889
10%
0
3,962
680
68
34
4,921
9,665
16%
Pattern 3
SPV
0
196
3,193
1,371
2,342
39,354
1,288
129
2,032
376
38
394
42,803
SOE
2,114
766
167
SPV
Gov
SOE
2,114
766
167
8,178
216
196
7,513
70%
Gov
Pattern 4
8,321
14%
419
5,266
6,402
881
422
358
165
16,959
196
3,193
8,178
8,178
419
5,266
6,402
881
422
358
165
16,959
1,371
3,611
3,611
5,584
339
3,535
3,490
3,962
680
68
34
4,921
9,665
16%
8,178
196
3,193
1,371
SPV
5,584
339
3,535
3,490
36,907
216
196
9,961
1,575
157
1,924
89
9
502
40,563
10,561
67%
17%
0
3,962
680
68
34
4,921
9,665
16%
33,100
216
196
13,767
1,384
138
1,724
279
28
702
36,347
14,777
60%
24%
Note: These figures are just for reference in order to examine the cost sharing among the government, SOE and SPV.
21
Item
Land
Acquisition
Engineering
Services
Gov
Gov
SOE
SPV
Gov
SOE
Gov
SPV
3.96
3.96
3.96
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.06
VAT
4.94
Total
9.67
(16%)
Financing
SPV
Pattern 4
Pattern 3
3.96
Construction
& Others
Percentage to
total project cost
SOE
Pattern 2
45.23
5.89
0.06
42.80
8.32
4.94
45.23
(74%)
5.89
(10%)
9.67
(16%)
60.79
0.06
40.56
10.56
4.94
42.80
(70%)
8.32
(14%)
9.67
(16%)
0.06
SPV
36.34
14.78
36.34
(60%)
14.78
(24%)
4.94
40.56
(67%)
10.56
(17%)
9.67
(16%)
60.79
60.79
SOE
60.79
L-ES
L-C
CBL
L-ES
L-C
CBL
L-ES
L-C
CBL
L-ES
L-C
CBL
GB
OB
GB
OB
GB
OB
GB
OB
22
Gov
SOE
Pattern 2
SPV
Gov
SOE
SPV
EIRR (%)
FIRR (%)
Pattern 4
Pattern 3
Gov
SOE
SPV
0.98
9.91
Gov
SOE
SPV
0.97
8.69
12.50
0.97
14.93
0.97
12.35
109.69
62.80
24.71
19.08
Project IRR
(%)
22.65
17.36
13.13
10.08
DSCR
(Minimum)
1.52
1.11
0.76
-1.70
Debt : Equity = 85 : 15
23
BLANK
24
2.
3.
25
2.
3.
Compensation generated exclusively by Public Projects - Undergroundpass, Reduction of income tax, etc
Compulsory Land Acquisition Law - Enactment and enforcement
26
27
Construction Period
Loan Disbursement
O&M Period
Loan Repayment
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Case: ODA LOAN + REIT
Construction Period
Loan Disbursement
O&M Period
Grace Period
Loan Repayment
REIT
28
Cities with
HSR Stations
Population Growth
(1975 - 1995)
Company Number Growth
(1975 - 1991)
Local Gov't Receipt Growth
(1980 - 1993)
National
Average
32%
12%
46%
21%
155%
110%
Enhancing business
opportunities of local
companies
29
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Responsible Entity
MoF
MoF, Bappenas
MoT
HSR-A
Establishment
MoT
Coordination by CMEA
HSR-A
SOE
On-Site
SPV
Coordination by CMEA
Management by SOE
Tendering process
Inauguration
Management by SOE
Supervised by SOE
Donor & Consultant
ES - I
ES - II
30
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Responsible Entity
MoF
MoF, Bappenas
MoT
HSR-A
Establishment
MoT
Coordination by CMEA
HSR-A
SOE
On-Site
SPV
Coordination by CMEA
Management by SOE
Tendering process
Construction works, rolling stock procurement and pre-operation
Phase II Study
[ Engineering Services (ES) ]
Inauguration
Management by SOE
Supervised by SOE
Donor & Consultant
ES - I
ES - II
31
Terima Kasih
32
APPENDIX
33
DKI Jakarta
34
Bekasi
35
Cikarang
36
37