Manajemen Transportasi & Logistik

CHAPTER

Forecasting

Rahmi Yuniarti,ST.,MT
Anni Rahimah, SAB,MAB
FIA - Prodi Bisnis Internasional
Universitas Brawijaya

Manajemen Permintaan
Order Pesanan

Ramalan
Permintaan
Manajemen
Permintaan

Pengelolaan Order Pesanan

Penawaran

Permintaan

Negosiasi

Perjanjian

Kesepakatan

What is Forecasting?
FORECAST:

A statement about the future value of a variable of

interest such as demand.
Forecasts affect decisions and activities throughout
an organization
Accounting, finance
Human resources
Marketing
MIS
Operations
Product / service design

Uses of Forecasts
Accounting

Cost/profit estimates

Finance

Cash flow and funding

Human Resources

Hiring/recruiting/training

Marketing

Pricing, promotion, strategy

MIS

IT/IS systems, services

Operations

Schedules, MRP, workloads

Product/service design

New products and services

Peramalan Permintaan

Common in all forecasts

Assumes causal system

past ==> future

Forecasts rarely perfect because of

randomness

Forecasts more accurate for

groups vs. individuals

Forecast accuracy decreases

as time horizon increases

I see that you will

get an A this semester.

Steps in the Forecasting Process

The forecast

Step 6 Monitor the forecast

Step 5 Prepare the forecast
Step 4 Gather and analyze data
Step 3 Select a forecasting technique
Step 2 Establish a time horizon
Step 1 Determine purpose of forecast

Forecasting Models
Forecasting
Techniques
Qualitative
Models

Time Series
Methods
Delphi
Method
Jury of Executive
Opinion
Sales Force
Composite
Consumer Market
Survey

Naive
Moving
Average
Weighted
Moving Average
Exponential
Smoothing
Trend Analysis

Causal
Methods
Simple
Regression
Analysis
Multiple
Regression
Analysis

Seasonality
Analysis
Multiplicative
Decomposition

Model Differences

Qualitative incorporates judgmental & subjective

factors into forecast.
Time-Series attempts to predict the future by
using historical data.
Causal incorporates factors that may influence
the quantity being forecasted into the model

Qualitative Forecasting Models

Delphi method

Iterative group process allows experts to make forecasts

Participants:

decision makers: 5 -10 experts who make the forecast

staff personnel: assist by preparing, distributing, collecting, and
summarizing a series of questionnaires and survey results
respondents: group with valued judgments who provide input to decision
makers

Qualitative Forecasting Models

(cont)

Jury of executive opinion

Sales force composite

Opinions of a small group of high level managers, often in combination

with statistical models.
Result is a group estimate.
Each salesperson estimates sales in his region.
Forecasts are reviewed to ensure realistic.
Combined at higher levels to reach an overall forecast.

Consumer market survey.

Solicits input from customers and potential customers regarding future

purchases.
Used for forecasts and product design & planning

Metode Peramalan Deret Waktu13

(Time Series Methods)

Teknik peramalan yang menggunakan data-data historis

penjualan beberapa waktu terakhir dan
mengekstrapolasinya untuk meramalkan penjualan di
masa depan
Peramalan deret waktu mengasumsikan pola
kecenderungan pemasaran akan berlanjut di masa depan.
Sebenarnya pendekatan ini cukup naif, karena
mengabaikan gejolak kondisi pasar dan persaingan

14

Langkah--langkah Peramalan Deret Waktu

Langkah

Kumpulkan data historis penjualan

Petakan dalam diagram pencar (scatter diagram)
Periksa pola perubahan permintaan
Identifikasi faktor pola perubahan permintaan
Pilih metode peramalan yang sesuai
Hitung ukuran kesalahan peramalan
Lakukan peramalan untuk satu atau beberapa periode
mendatang

Time Series Methods

Trend , Seasonality Analysis

Trend - long-term movement in data

Cycle wavelike variations of more than one
years duration
Seasonality - short-term regular variations in
data
Random variations - caused by chance

Pola Kecenderungan Data Historis Penjualan

Forecast Error

Bias - The arithmetic sum of

the errors

Forecast Error = At Ft
T

Mean Square Error - Similar to MSE = | forecast error | 2 /T

simple sample variance
t =1
T

= (At Ft ) 2 / T
t =1

MAD - Mean Absolute

Deviation
MAPE Mean Absolute
Percentage Error

t =1

t =1

MAD = | forecast error | /T = |At Ft | / T

T

MAPE = 100 [|At Ft | / At ] / T

t =1

Example
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

MAD=
MSE=
MAPE=

217
213
216
210
213
219
216
212

2,75
9,50
1,28

215
216
215
214
211
214
217
216

2
-3
1
-4
2
5
-1
-4
-2

2
3
1
4
2
5
1
4
22

4
9
1
16
4
25
1
16
76

0,92
1,41
0,46
1,90
0,94
2,28
0,46
1,89
10,26

Controlling the Forecast

Control chart
A visual tool for monitoring forecast errors
Used to detect non-randomness in errors

Forecasting errors are in control if

All errors are within the control limits
No patterns, such as trends or cycles, are present

Controlling the forecast

Quantitative Forecasting Models

Time Series Method

Nave

Whatever happened recently

will happen again this time
(same time period)
The model is simple and
flexible
Provides a baseline to
measure other models
Attempts to capture seasonal
factors at the expense of
ignoring trend

Ft = Yt 1
Ft = Yt 4 : Quarterly data
Ft = Yt 12 : Monthly data

Naive Forecasts

Uh, give me a minute....

We sold 250 wheels last
week.... Now, next week
we should sell....
The forecast for any period equals
the previous periods actual value.

Nave Forecast
Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting
Storage Shed Sales

Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Actual
Nave
Value
Forecast
10
N/A
12
10
16
12
13
16
17
13
19
17
15
19
20
15
22
20
19
22
21
19
19
21

Error
2
4
-3
4
2
-4
5
2
-3
2
-2
0,818
BIAS

Absolute
Error
2
4
3
4
2
4
5
2
3
2
2
3
MAD

Percent
Error
16,67%
25,00%
23,08%
23,53%
10,53%
26,67%
25,00%
9,09%
15,79%
9,52%
10,53%
17,76%
MAPE

Squared
Error
4,0
16,0
9,0
16,0
4,0
16,0
25,0
4,0
9,0
4,0
4,0
10,091
MSE

Nave Forecast Graph

Wallace Garden - Naive Forecast
25

20

15
Sh ed s

Actual Value
Nave Forecast
10

0
February

March

April

May

June

July
Period

August

September

October

November

December

Naive Forecasts

Simple to use
Virtually no cost
Quick and easy to prepare
Easily understandable
Can be a standard for accuracy
Cannot provide high accuracy

Techniques for Averaging

Moving average

Weighted moving average

Exponential smoothing

Moving Averages

Moving average A technique that averages a

number of recent actual values, updated as new
values become available. n

MAn =

Ai

i=1
n

The demand for wheels in a wheel store in the past 5

weeks were as follows. Compute a three-period
moving average forecast for demand in week 6.
83 80 85 90 94

Moving average & Actual demand

Moving Averages
Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting
Storage Shed Sales

Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Actual
Value
10
12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21
19

Three-Month Moving Averages

10
12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21

/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

12.67
13.67
15.33
16.33
17.00
18.00
19.00
20.33
20.67

Moving Averages Forecast

Wallace Garden Supply
3 period moving average

Forecasting

Actual Value - Forecast

Input Data
Period
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12
Next period

Forecast Error Analysis

Actual Value
10
12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21
19
19,667

Forecast

12,667
13,667
15,333
16,333
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,333
20,667
Average

Error

0,333
3,333
3,667
-1,333
3,000
4,000
0,000
0,667
-1,667
12,000
BIAS

Absolute
error

0,333
3,333
3,667
1,333
3,000
4,000
0,000
0,667
1,667
2,000
MAD

Squared
error

0,111
11,111
13,444
1,778
9,000
16,000
0,000
0,444
2,778
6,074
MSE

Absolute
% error

2,56%
19,61%
19,30%
8,89%
15,00%
18,18%
0,00%
3,17%
8,77%
10,61%
MAPE

Moving Averages Graph

Three Period Moving Average

25

20

15
Va lu e

Actual Value
Forecast
10

0
1

7
Time

10

11

12

Moving Averages

Weighted moving average More recent values in a

series are given more weight in computing the
forecast.
Assumes data from some periods are more important than data
from other periods (e.g. earlier periods).
Use weights to place more emphasis on some periods and less on
others.

Example:

For the previous demand data, compute a weighted

average forecast using a weight of .40 for the most
recent period, .30 for the next most recent, .20 for the
next and .10 for the next.
If the actual demand for week 6 is 91, forecast demand
for week 7 using the same weights.

Weighted Moving Average

Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting
Storage Shed Sales

Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Next period

Actual
Value Weights
10
0,222
12
0,593
16
0,185
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21
19
20,185

Sum of weights =

1,000

Three-Month Weighted Moving Averages

2,2
2,7
3,5
2,9
3,8
4,2
3,3
4,4
4,9

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

7,1
9,5
7,7
10
11
8,9
12
13
11

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

3
2,4
3,2
3,5
2,8
3,7
4,1
3,5
3,9

/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

12,298
14,556
14,407
16,484
17,814
16,815
19,262
21,000
20,036

Weighted Moving Average

Wallace Garden Supply
3 period weighted moving average

Forecasting

Input Data
Period
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

Forecast Error Analysis

Actual value
10
12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21
19

Next period
Sum of weights =

Weights
0.222
0.593
0.185

Forecast

12.298
14.556
14.407
16.484
17.814
16.815
19.262
21.000
20.036
Average

20.185
1.000

Error

0.702
2.444
4.593
-1.484
2.186
5.185
-0.262
0.000
-1.036
1.988
BIAS

Absolute
error

0.702
2.444
4.593
1.484
2.186
5.185
0.262
0.000
1.036
6.952
MAD

Squared
error

0.492
5.971
21.093
2.202
4.776
26.889
0.069
0.000
1.074
6.952
MSE

Absolute
% error

5.40%
14.37%
24.17%
9.89%
10.93%
23.57%
1.38%
0.00%
5.45%
10.57%
MAPE

Exponential Smoothing

ES didefinisikan sebagai:

Ft +1 = Dt + (1 ) Ft
Keterangan:
Ft+1 = Ramalan untuk periode berikutnya
Dt = Demand aktual pada periode t
Ft = Peramalan yg ditentukan sebelumnya untuk periode t
= Faktor bobot
besar, smoothing yg dilakukan kecil
kecil, smoothing yg dilakukan semakin besar
optimum akan meminimumkan MSE, MAPE

Exponential Smoothing

Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1 - Ft-1)

Weighted averaging method based on previous

forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error
A-F is the error term, is the % feedback

Exponential Smoothing Data

Wallace Garden Supply
Forecasting

Storage Shed Sales

Exponential Smoothing
Period
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Actual
Value
10
12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21
19

Ft
10
10
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
15

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1
0,1

At
*(
*(
*(
*(
*(
*(
*(
*(
*(
*(
*(

10
12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21

Ft
-

10
10
10
11
11
12
12
13
13
14
15

Ft+1
)=
)=
)=
)=
)=
)=
)=
)=
)=
)=
)=

10,000
10,200
10,780
11,002
11,602
12,342
12,607
13,347
14,212
14,691
15,322

Exponential Smoothing
Wallace Garden Supply
Exponential smoothing

Forecasting

Input Data

Forecast Error Analysis

Period
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
Month 6
Month 7
Month 8
Month 9
Month 10
Month 11
Month 12

Actual value
10
12
16
13
17
19
15
20
22
19
21
19

Alpha

0.419

Next period

19.573

Forecast
10.000
10.000
10.838
13.000
13.000
14.675
16.487
15.864
17.596
19.441
19.256
19.987
Average

Error
2.000
5.162
0.000
4.000
4.325
-1.487
4.136
4.404
-0.441
1.744
-0.987

Absolute
error
2.000
5.162
0.000
4.000
4.325
1.487
4.136
4.404
0.441
1.744
0.987
2.608
MAD

Squared
error
4.000
26.649
0.000
16.000
18.702
2.211
17.106
19.391
0.194
3.041
0.973
9.842
MSE

Absolute
% error
16.67%
32.26%
0.00%
23.53%
22.76%
9.91%
20.68%
20.02%
2.32%
8.30%
5.19%
14.70%
MAPE

us
t

D
ec
em
be
r

N
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em
be
r

O
ct
ob
e

Se
pt
em
be
r

A
ug

Ju
ly

Ju
ne

M
ay

Ap
ril

M
ar
ch

Fe
br
ua
ry

Ja
nu
ar
y

Sheds

Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing

25

20

15
Actual value

Forecast

10

Techniques for Trend

Develop an equation that will suitably describe
trend, when trend is present.
The trend component may be linear or nonlinear
We focus on linear trends

Common Nonlinear Trends

Parabolic

Exponential

Growth

Linear Trend Equation

Ft

Ft = a + bt

Ft = Forecast for period t

0 1 2
t = Specified number of time periods
a = Value of Ft at t = 0
b = Slope of the line

3 4 5

Example

Sales for over the last 5 weeks are shown below:

Week:
Sales:

1
2
150 157

3
162

4
166

5
177

Plot the data and visually check to see if a linear

trend line is appropriate.
Determine the equation of the trend line
Predict sales for weeks 6 and 7.

Line chart
Sales
180
175
170
Sales

165
160

Sales

155
150
145
140
135
1

3
Week

Calculating a and b

n (ty) - t y
b =
2
2
n t - ( t)

y - b t
a =
n

Linear Trend Equation Example

t
Week
1
2
3
4
5

t
1
4
9
16
25
2

t = 15
t = 55
2
( t) = 225

y
Sales
150
157
162
166
177

ty
150
314
486
664
885

y = 812 ty = 2499

Linear Trend Calculation

b =

5 (2499) - 15(812)
5(55) - 225

12495-12180
275 -225

812 - 6.3(15)
a =
= 143.5
5

y = 143.5 + 6.3t

= 6.3

Linear Trend plot

Actual data

Linear equation

180
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
1