Solar PV Market Update

Volume 1: Spring

May 2012

Market Landscape

Welcome
Welcome to the inaugural edition of the
EPRI Solar PV Market Update. This quarterly
document is intended to provide a snapshot
of PV market information, alongside brief
EPRI analysis, to inform EPRI members about
economic, policy, and technology-related
developments in the segment. It synthesizes
data reporting gleaned from a variety of
primary and secondary sources, highlighting specific industry issuesincluding
market outlooks, equipment cost and pricing
trends, system design and efficiency
advances, and changes in the incentive
landscapethat are likely to impact utility
solar PV investment and planning efforts. At
bottom, the EPRI Solar PV Market Update is
intended to serve as a utility crib sheet for
staying abreast of the sectors vitality.
Please let us know how we can improve
upon this Update. Send us your comments
and suggestions for future content coverage.
Sincerely,
The EPRI Solar Generation (Program 84)

An overview of the solar PV market landscape, recognized trends, and anticipated outcomes will be a
recurring theme in the Update. The introductory brief below focuses more intently on the U.S. PV situation, one of the more dynamic, fastest growing market environments in the world. Data and analysis
surrounding the international market for photovoltaics will be provided in the next edition, including
reflections on deployment, cost, and incentive issues.
U.S. PV Market Landscape: A 2011 Retrospective and Outlook
The changing dynamics of the solar PV marketplace bear watching to discern opportunities, risk
factors, and economic trends associated with current and future project investment in the United
States. In 2011, the U.S. solar market continued its torrid pace, driven in part by plummeting
PV system component priceswhich translated to a 20% drop in overall system prices1and
the end-of-year expiration of the DOEs Section 1603 Grant in Lieu of Tax Credit, among other
solar power incentives. Moreover, improved installation efficiency and a continued shift toward
larger systems produced economy-of-scale savings that helped fuel more than double year-overyear growth.
According to GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), approximately
1.86 GW of solar PV capacity was installed in the United States in 2011755 MW in the fourth
quarter alone (double Q4 2010)representing a 109% increase from 2010s 887 MW of additions
(see Figure 1). Meanwhile, broken down by market segment, utility-driven growth (via PPA and
asset ownership) grew 185% from 2010, reaching 758 MW in capacity additions in 2011, compared with ~800 MW installed in the commercial sector, and 297 MW in the residential sector.
The movement toward greater utility installations is part of a multi-year trend in which the share
of new PV capacity from residential systems has lessened with steady improvement in larger-scale
solar project economics (see Figure 2). As a point of reference, 28 PV projects sized 10 MW and
greater were installed in 2011, compared with just two in 2009 and eight in 2010. All told, 2011

and Integration of Distributed Renewables

(Program 174) Teams

Table of Contents
U.S. PV Market Landscape:
A 2011 Retrospective and Outlook 1
Solar Cost & Pricing Snapshot:
Trends in PV, CPV, and CSP

Advances in PV Cell & Panel Efficiencies: Positive Long-term Implications

Amid Pressure to Meet Short-term
Expectations 6
Technology Spotlight: tenKsolar

10

Source: GTM Research and SEIA

Figure 1. Breakdown of U.S. PV Installations, 2010 and 2011

1 Based on a weighted average of PV system prices.

Market Landscape
continued from page 1

Source: GTM Research and SEIA

Figure 2. U.S. PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2011 Q4 2011

additions totaled 61,000 individual PV systems, pushing cumulative U.S. installations to

roughly 3.95 GW (214,000 systems).
Among commercial PV technologies, crystalline silicon-based modules expanded market
share to 89-92% in 2011 on the back of falling
silicon commodity prices that helped diminish
their pricing differential with thin films.2 The
crash in polysilicon spot prices from a high of
$450-500/kg in 2008 to roughly $27/kg at
end-2011,3 coupled with across-the-board efficiency premiums afforded to c-Si products over
thin films, reinforced a market environment
tilted toward conventional silicon-based systems, and particularly those produced in China.
Approaching $1/W, c-Si-based modules virtually erased a 50% dollar-per-Watt cost differential with thin film products (i.e., First Solar) in
2011. As a result, Chinese Tier-1 c-Si modules
reportedly cut the cost gap with thin films to
less than $0.10/W and are predicted to close the
cost disparity further throughout 2012.
Key Takeaways from 2011
1. U.S. market share went up and looks likely
to continue to go up. Record U.S. PV installations in 2011, following on the heels of
previously record installations in 2010, has
resulted in an expanding domestic share of

the global market. Solar installations in the

U.S. more than doubled in each of the past
two years, increasing the countrys market
share by 2%to 7% of the worlds installed
capacity in 2011, up from 5% in 2010signaling a steady shift in focus by developers
away from strong European markets propelled, until recently, by healthy feed-in tariff
rates, and toward the United States.
2. Both policy and policy uncertainty significantly moved the U.S. market. At the end of
2011, the looming expiration of the Section
1603 Treasury Program and ambiguity about
its potential extension motivated installers to
complete a record number of projects in
4Q11roughly 776 MW of new PV additions, up 115% over the same period in 2010
(see Figure 1).4 The mad dash to complete
projects is a reflection of expected challenges
in the 2012 project financing environment
(which more heavily rely on the 30% Investment Tax Credit [ITC] and private equity
financing).
3. Go big or go home. An increasing number of
utility-scale PV projects were installed in
2011, part of a three year trend. Endowed
with healthy balance sheets, and prompted
by regulatory mandates along with favorable
economics, utilities became a growing customer of PV projects. This situation perhaps

presages a future U.S. marketplace dominated by utility activity.

4. Historically differentiated prices for PV
products became a relic of the past. General
module oversupply and the marching
advance of Chinese manufacturers caused
rapid decreases in c-Si module costs and, in
turn, system prices that considerably narrowed the pricing advantage historically
granted to thin films. The partial result: an
emerging market perception of PV as a commodity good and the PV segments consequent recognition for the need to emphasize
product differentiation.
5. Solar became more politicized than ever.
The highly publicized bankruptcy of cylindrical CIGS panel manufacturer Solyndra in
late 2011, and its connection to the federal
loan guarantee program, created a political
divide at the national level. In a looming
U.S. presidential election year, political partisanship and discussion surrounding governments role in supporting the PV industry is
likely to heat up and eventually impact future
legislative actions.
A Look Ahead in the Short Term
The near future for the solar PV segment is
anticipated to be a challenging one. The popular narrative: a combination of oversupply and
under-demand will conspire to force continuedand unsustainabledownward pricing
pressure on panels and, in turn, usher in a
period of consolidation, bankruptcies, and
market correction. Indeed, fickle subsidy policies in Europe, coupled with asymmetric competition/subsidies on the supply side from
China have triggered a race-to-the-bottom
in prices that is likely to carry on throughout
2012 and beyond. One potential result of this
unhealthy pricing competition, accommodated by a shrinking number of major solar
markets, is an expected upsurge in utility
power purchase agreements (PPAs), many of
which are likely to require a renegotiation of
terms or lead to a relatively large false pipeline of projects.
continued on page 3

2 Thin films experienced continued absolute growth in new installations in 2011. However, the segments relative market share dropped.
3 According to GTM Research, contract polysilicon pricing hit $42/kg at the end of 2011.
4 Many developers also elected to safe-harbor their product in 2011, enabling projects completed after the December 31st, 2011 deadline to qualify for the 1603
program.
Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

May 2012

Market Landscape
continued from page 2

Table 1. Market Correction Selected Outcomes

Company

Recent Developments

Abound Solar

Furloughed 180 employees and shut down production to retool equipment.

Evergreen Solar

Filed for bankruptcy in 2011.

First Solar

Indefinitely ceased operations at AZ production facility, idled 4 of 24

production lines in Malaysia, and closing a Frankfurt manufacturing facility.
Upshot: headcount slashed by 2,000 positions ~30% of workforce.

Q-Cells

Filed for bankruptcy in 2012. Over $1.1 billion evaporated in 2011. Parent
company Solibros long-term prospects in question.

Solyndra

CIGS module manufacturer filed for bankruptcy in September 2011,

triggering a political backlash on the U.S. governments loan guarantee
program.

Spectrawatt

Filed for bankruptcy in 2011.

SunPower

Plans to shutter 125-MW Fab 1 line in the Philippines.

Trony Solar

a-Si manufacturer reportedly selling PV below cost into off-grid markets.

Uni-Solar

Filed for bankruptcy in 2012.

Market retrenchment is already beginning to

have a tangible impact on an expanding number
of companies within the solar segment (see Table
1). In addition to less established concerns, former heavyweights like Q-Cells have declared
bankruptcy, while SunPower and First Solar are
closing, idling, or re-purposing entire manufacturing facilities and production lines. A further winnowing of solar value chain is expected,
with some less established companies likely to
run out of cash before market demand rebounds
and price expectations temper.

British thermal units (MMBTU) on the New

York Mercantile Exchange due to record U.S.
inventory levels and robust production, additional pressure is being placed on PV suppliers
to further slash pricing and erode margins
(potentially into negative territory). The widespread expectation that natural gas pricing will
continue to fall to still lower depths not seen in
nearly 15 years portrays an ominous picture in
which PV technology prices are unlikely to stabilize any time soon.

The market realities in 2012 are manifesting

themselves in arguably untenable bids for large
projects. According to Navigant Consulting and
confirmed by utility and EPC sources, PPA
prices are being bid at rates as low as $0.06-0.08/
kWh and averaging ~$0.11/kWh. But the economic rationale behind these bid prices is dependent upon artificially low module prices that will
be unable to sustain a number of manufacturers,
resulting in their insolvency. The upshot: the real
prospect that numerous utility pipeline projects
will not be built unless they are renegotiated at
more realistic terms. A further concern: worsening product quality due to actions taken (e.g.,
outsourcing to a variety of lower cost Asian manufacturers with questionable QA standards) to
satisfy PV pricing pressures that, for example,
could result in accelerated degradation rates that
undermine project economics and rely on warranty arrangements for rectification. (Please see
the below Update item for a more in-depth analysis of solar technology costs and pricing.)
Looking ahead, 2012 will be a buyers market. In
contrast to the turmoil within the PV value
chain, utilities and other end-use purchasers are
likely to reap the benefits of the solar pricing
environment for the foreseeable future. Consequently, U.S. market forecasts are predominately
bullish. For example, as depicted in Figure 3,
Greentech Research/SEIA predict steadily rising
annual new capacity additions that crest at 8
continued on page 4

Average selling prices (ASPs) for PV modules

have fallen some 46% in the past year and are
not expected to stabilize in the short term as
manufacturers attempt to sell off excess inventories in an effort to recalibrate market supply/
demand. As a result, the national weightedaverage installed system price in the U.S.
declined by 20%, reaching $4.08/W at end2011. For utility projects the average fell to
$3.20/W in the same period.
Compounding the largely unchecked descent of
PV pricing are natural gas prices that have
plummeted by 52% in the past year. With gas
futures now hovering at below $2 per million

Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

Source: GTM Research and SEIA, redrawn by EPRI

Figure 3. U.S. Share of Global PV Installations (Redrawn by EPRI)

May 2012

Market Landscape
continued from page 3

GW in 2016 with the planned sunsetting of the

ITC. In turn, U.S. PV market share is anticipated to grow from 7% to 15% in the next five
years, and, in the process, become a focal market,
along with China, for near term development.
Although factors such as the final outcome of the
U.S.-Chinese trade petition and feed-in tariff
dynamics in Germany and Italy will influence
U.S. solar market activity in 2012, a strong project pipeline littered with utility-scale projects5
that have a high probability of obtaining financing bodes well for market segment growth.
Key Takeaways in the Look Ahead
1. Utilities will increasingly lead the way in
spurring new U.S. PV capacity additions.
According to the Solar Electric Power Association (SEPA), utility-driven procurement
(PPA and asset ownership) represented 39%
of new U.S. solar capacity in 2011, versus
9% in 2008. That percentage is predicted to
climb in 2012 and beyond given healthy utility balance sheets, RPS-driven demand,
resource portfolio diversity aims, falling
ASPs, and economy-of-scale pricing benefits.
Even considering attrition factors, the growth
prospects of the U.S. utility segment are
good: over 9 GW of projects have signed utility power purchase agreements (PPAs) and

await completion over the next five years,

while over 3 GW of these projects have
already been financed and are in
construction.
2. PV pricing is not likely to rebound in 2012
given the widely mismatched supply/
demand equation. According to Bloomberg
New Energy Finance, solar factories are now
capable of producing 38 GW of panel capacity, roughly 54% more than worldwide estimated demand in 2012. The reduced global
market demand is largely due to a contraction of traditionally strong European markets that have rolled back feed-in tariff (FIT)
incentives. As a result, artificially low PV
prices will likely continue until supply can be
recalibrated through the reduction of production output achieved, in part, via manufacturer insolvency.
3. Falling natural gas prices will help force
continued reduction in PV prices. PV manufacturers will be compelled to further slash
PV prices in utility RFP bids, in part, to
compete with natural gas prices that are
approaching historic lows. This will be a tall
order given the trajectory of natural gas price
averages at the Henry Hub:6
January 2012 $2.67/MMBTU;
February 2012 $2.51/MMBTU;

March 2012 $2.12/MMBTU;

April (preliminary average) 2012 $2.02/
MMBTU.
4. Growing PV installations will require U.S.
utilities to devise strategies for managing grid
penetration that maintain overall network
reliability. In 2011, utilities interconnected
over 62,500 residential, commercial/industrial, and utility PV systemsa volume not
previously experienced. Despite a changing
incentive landscape and more challenging
financing terms, PV interconnections and
associated capacity additions in the U.S. are
estimated to annually rise over the next five
years, considerably increasing penetration levels on some circuits and, to a lesser extent, raising national grid penetration levels to 2-3%.
5. The consolidating PV market in 2012
through 2014 will beget a new technology
landscape. The thin film segment, once a rising star in the solar industry, is likely to experience a pronounced shakeout as CAPEX
and LCOE cost competitiveness dwindles
vis--vis c-Si offerings. Consolidation via
merger and acquisition (M&A) activity is
primed to occur particularly in the CIGS sector, given the technologys upside potential
and the low current valuations of effectively
every CIGS company.

The Solar PV Economic Landscape

Although each solar technology has a particular
market application niche for growth, plunging
PV prices have, at least temporarily, made c-Si
and thin film-based systems the utility solar
investment of choice. Indeed, the hypercompetitive market has driven down PPA bids to
reported prices of $0.065-0.085/kWh in the
latest California utilities RFP solicitations.7
These and other recent utility RFP responses
follow a broad downward trajectory of identified average utility installation price points that

have declined by ~20% since early 2011.8 In

particular, according to GTM Research/SEIA,
U.S. utility system prices reportedly declined
for the seventh consecutive quarter in a row,
dropping to $3.20/W in Q4 2011, largely as a
result of an historic free-fall in global solar module average selling prices and associated economy-of-scale benefits.

Cost Corner
Solar Cost & Pricing Snapshot:
Trends in PV, CPV, and CSP
The solar cost and pricing landscape has been
particularly volatile over the last 12 months.
The implications of these economic dynamics: greater PV project investment, at the
expense of more capital intensive concentrating solar power (CSP) projects and less
proven concentrating PV (CPV) installations. Table 2, on page 5, provides a comparative overview of solar-based generation
options.

But a growing divergence between module

ASPs and their production costs portrays an
unsustainable market situation that will likely
continued on page 5

5 As of early 2012, over 9 GW of U.S. utility projects were under contract (PPAs signed) and over 32 GW of earlier-stage utility projects had been announced (precontract) that are actively seeking permits, interconnection agreements, PPAs, and financing.
6 Natural gas prices can be 2-4x Henry Hub prices by the time they reach end-users.
7 Bids were submitted to Californias Renewable Auction Mechanism (RAM) for the 2015-17 timeframe.
8 Based on weighted averages across residential, commercial/industrial, and utility system installations.
Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

May 2012

Cost Corner
continued from page 4

culminate in contraction for less financially

secure product manufacturers. Figures 4 and
5 illustrate current and estimated module
ASPs and production costs for a small sample
of thin film and polycrystalline PV companies as well as a blended worldwide average.
An observed narrowing of average selling
prices and module productions costs has
occurred over the past three years$0.37 in
2009, $0.32 in 2010, and $0.15 in 2011.
And, in 2012, production costs are, in fact,
estimated to be an average of $0.13 higher
than ASPs. It remains to be seen whether the
gap between selling price and production cost
can be bridged before an outbreak of industry
failures. Analysts project ASPs for Suntech,
First Solar, Trina, and Yingli to reach
~$0.85/W by 2013, and for SunPower to sell
at a higher price due to its module efficiency
premium. Meanwhile, Chinese manufactur-

ers costs are anticipated to approach First

Solars current production costs by 2013, falling to $0.70 - $0.80/W.

ance-of-plant equipment and grid integration

costs. Stay tuned!

Future editions of EPRIs PV Market Update

will contain latest updates on module ASPs
and production costs, PPA bid ranges, and
additional economic data surrounding bal-

Note: Not all sources utilized provide

projections for each company or year shown
Sources: Barclays, Citigroup Global Markets,
Cowen & Co., Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs
Group, Jefferies, Piper Jaffray, Photon
Consulting (Solar Annual 2012), Stifel Nicolaus
& Co., UBS Securities

Figure 4. Estimated Module ASPs

Figure 5. Estimated Module Costs

Table 2. Comparison of Solar Technologies

Worldwide
Market Share*

Efficiencya

Capacity
Factor

Install Cost
($/kW)

Land Use Efficiency

(Acres/MW)

Projected Near-Term Global

Growth

<0.01%
(~33 MW)

25 - 35%

Up to 31%

$3,600+d

5 - 12

~60 MW to be completed by
mid-2012, ~700 MW in pipeline;
outlook highly variable

Flat-plate PV
- Silicon-based

87% (~58 GW)

14 - 21%

Up to 27%

~$3,200b

5-8

20 GW+/year

Flat-plate PV
- Thin Film

11% (~7 GW)

7 12.5%

Up to 27%^

~$3,000c

9 - 13

3.5 GW+/year

13 - 30%^^

Up to
28%***

$4,100+
(wo/storage)
$5,000+
(w/storage)

3.5 - 12

Technology

CPV

Concentrating
Solar Thermal
Power (CSP)**

2% (2 GW)

2.8 GW under construction; 12

GW in pipeline (outlook highly
variable)

Notes:
* As of end-2011.
** Based on solar trough and central receiver technologies, does not include Stirling dish or linear Fresnel reflector.
*** Based on solar thermal technology, without thermal storage or fossil fuel backup; with 15 hours of thermal storage, capacity factors can approach 70%.
a Commercial efficiency numbers for CPV, flat-plate, and thin-film PV are for module-level (dc); efficiency numbers for CSP are solar-to-electric (ac).
b Based on the national weighted-average of installed utility system prices in the U.S. at end-2011.
c Based on average reported First Solar install costs
d Based on vendor-provided data
Depends on whether storage is used; land use with 9 hrs storage is ~10.5 acres/MW.
^ Thin-film fixed solar PV (20 MW+).
^^ Net, without fossil fuel hybridization devices
Sources: EPRI, SEPA, NREL, CPV Consortium, GreenTech Media, McKinsey & Co., EPIA

9 Note: FSLR = FirstSolar, YGE = Yingli Solar, CSIQ = Canadian Solar , STP = Suntech Power Holdings, TSL = Trina Solar Limited, SPWR = SunPower,
Worldwide = global average
Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

May 2012

PV TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS
Advances in PV Cell & Panel
Efficiencies: Positive Long-term
Implications Amid Pressure to
Meet Short-term Expectations
Amid todays challenging solar market environment, PV supply chain manufacturers continue to invest liberally in technology research
and development (R&D) pursuits to improve
upon product line price-per-Watt metrics that
offer greater competitiveness while easing current tightness in profit and revenue margins.
One outcome of these efforts is recent recordsetting advances in PV cell and panel efficiencies across nearly all solar material segments
including crystalline silicon (c-Si), cadmium
telluride (CdTe), copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), and gallium arsenide (GaAs).
Though not considered breakthroughs in
innovation, industry stakeholders collectively
view the incremental increases in cell and
module performance as positive steps toward
achieving longer-term technology roadmap
objectives.

Attaining evolutionary increases in conversion

efficiency is one of the major strategies PV manufacturers are employing to gradually reduce
their per-Watt module prices and better compete in the global marketplace. As illustrated in
Table 3which provides a snapshot of some of
the latest PV efficiency developments, broken
down by company and technology typeefficiency improvements are being realized via a
diversity of approaches for virtually every PV
technology. For example, Suntechs Pluto cell
features a unique texturing process that
increases sunlight absorption in high- low-, and
indirect-light conditions. Moreover the cells
design and contact gridlines boost power output, reportedly delivering a 10-15% performance advantage using the same materials,
wafers, and module line equipment as a standard cell. Thin film PV cells are, meanwhile,
predominately using direct bandgap semiconductors at layers that are roughly 100x thinner
than current c-Si cells. Sustained R&D investments are expected to continue the trend of

producing higher best-cell efficiencies that

translate to lower priced, higher energy density
commercial modules.
The extent that price-per-Watt cost reductions can be obtained solely via efficiency
gains is, however, capped and will lessen as
single-junction PV technologies approach
their maximum theoretical efficiency limits
(a.k.a, Shockley-Queisser limit) for their
respective semiconductor materials. Per Figure 6 (on page 7), considerable potential for
efficiency improvements exists for PV technologies across the board. And, as shown in
Table 4 (shown on page 8), projected PV
module efficiencies over the next five years
are expected to improve at varying rates that
range between 1-3%.
Advances in thin film efficiencies are expected
to outpace those accrued by crystalline silicon
modules and, in turn, narrow the performance
continued on page 7

Table 3. Selected PV Efficiency Advances

Company

PV Cell
Efficiency

Highlights

Crystalline Silicon (c-Si)

Suntech

20.3%

The worlds largest producer of solar panels, with 2.4 GW of global capacity. Pluto cell technology efficiency gains
achieved in Mar. 2012 on a production cell using commercial-grade p-type silicon wafers. 21% efficiency targeted by
2013. Incremental advancements encompass surface patterning, improved metallization and front metal contact
dimensions, changes in dopant concentration at the emitter, and better high-temperature performance. Thus far, the
higher efficiency, higher priced module not a big seller.

SunPower

24.0%

Manufacturer of the highest commercial efficiency cells and modules for the last half-decade. Back-contact c-Si cell
design, in commercial production since 2005, moves the metal contacts to the back of the wafer, maximizes the working
cell area, and eliminates redundant wires. Consistent efficiency improvements obtained with each successive generation
of commercialized cells, translating to gains in module output. Current commercial cell is now Gen 3.

Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)

First Solar

Abound
Solar

17.3%

The largest PV module firm by market capitalization and global thin film leader (2.7 GW project pipeline). Hit a new
world record for CdTe total area PV module efficiency of 14.4% in January 2012, approximately 6 mos. after achieving
a 17.3% CdTe solar cell efficiency record at its Perrysburg, OH factory. Average module conversion efficiency improved
by 0.6% in one year.

12.2%
(module)

The only other CdTe producer with significant production volume--the companys one-millionth module was claimed to
have been produced in Dec. 2011--Second Solar recently manufactured 82.8-W modules at its Longmont, CO facility
with 12.2% aperture efficiency. Results are now being verified by NREL. Mass production of the 82-W units is targeted
for the second half of 2012. However, the start-ups fab lines were halted in 1Q12, fanning speculation that its product
line was uncompetitive and calling the companys solvency into question. The fab lines were alleged halted to be
re-instrumented for the manufacture of the next gen modules.

Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

May 2012

PV Technology Development
continued from page 6

Table 3. Selected PV Efficiency Advances (continued)

Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIS / CIGS)
Solar
Frontier

17.8%

The largest CIGS producer (in capacity terms)--with ~400 MW shipped in 2011--and No. 2 overall producer of thin film
PV. Record CIS-based aperture area efficiency achieved on a 30-centimeter-square PV lab module. Result claimed to
come on a fully integrated submodule performed with processes similar to what is in place in the companys
factories at commercial production scale. Champion module at 14.5% aperture efficiency recently produced, equivalent
to module efficiency of 13.3%.

MiaSol

17.3%

Third-largest CIGS panel producer in 2011, behind Solar Frontier and Solibro (~66 MW), respectively. Announced in
Feb. 2012 a 17.3%-efficient champion cell, and the commencement of scale commercial production of 14%-efficient
modules. The company increased its panel efficiency by >30% from 2011 to 2012. A $55M cash infusion in Mar. 2012
raises total VC funding to $400-500M since 2004.

III-V Multi-Junction
Solar
Junction

33.9%
(HCPV
module)

Working with CPV vendor Semprius to deliver multi-MWs of epitaxial wafers. Semprius claims to have set the worldrecord CPV solar module efficiency using Solar Junctions III-V multi-junction solar cells based on lattice-matched dilute
nitrides. The firm recorded a module efficiency of 33.9 percent.

Gallium Arsenide (GaAs)

Alta
Devices

23.5%
(module)

GaAs-based panel efficiency claims verified by NREL, though information on the size of the panel currently unknown.
The companys epitaxial lift-off technique allows the firm to produce layers of GaAs that are flexible and measure 1
micron in thickness. Still in the pilot manufacturing phase, Alta Devices has won >$120 million in venture funding.

Note: Efficiency results differ based on the area of measurement; short-circuit current measurement is strongly dependent on cell area. Total area, active area, and
aperture area are possible measurement parameters. Active area is typically only used with small, laboratory-scale devices; aperture and total area standards are
used with commercial-sized cells and modules.
Sources: Greentech Media, manufacturers

gap between the two technology types over

time. For example, by 2016, CIGS on glass is
predicted to become 15% efficient, equal to
current multicrystalline module efficiencies,
while First Solar aims to produce 15% efficient CdTe modules in that timeframe as well.
Moreover, the upside for thin films is further
bolstered by its comparatively superior energy
yield per watt peak (kWh/kW) performance
characteristics vis--vis c-Si technologies that
enable better low light and high temperature
operation. (Of course, many other elements
affect the overall system costs of competing PV
technologies and the resulting efficacy of their
commercial deployment.)

Source: NREL

Figure 6. Production, Laboratory, and Theoretical (Maximum) PV Module Efficiencies

All told, the reported gains in efficiency

appear to be a bright spot in an otherwise
challenging market for the solar sector. Target
average selling prices (ASPs) are dependent
on meeting efficiency roadmaps. Yet it
continued on page 8

Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

May 2012

PV Technology Development
continued from page 7

Table 4. Module Efficiency Forecasts for PV Technologies through 2016

Technology

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Record

Super Monocrystalline Silicon

19.9%

20.1%

20.4%

20.7%

21.0%

21.2%

25.0%

Monocrystalline Silicon

15.0%

16.0%

16.3%

16.9%

17.5%

17.8%

25.0%

Multicrystalline Silicon

14.5%

15.0%

15.2%

15.5%

15.7%

15.9%

20.4%

CdTe

11.7%

12.6%

13.3%

14.0%

14.5%

14.8%

17.3%

CIGS

12.5%

13.3%

14.0%

14.5%

15.0%

15.5%

20.3%

c-Si/a-Si

9.8%

10.2%

10.6%

11.0%

11.4%

11.7%

12.5%

a-Si (3-j)

9.3%

9.7%

10.1%

10.4%

10.8%

11.1%

12.5%

a-Si (1-j)

6.5%

7.5%

8.0%

8.0%

8.2%

8.5%

10.0%

Note: Super monocrystalline silicon technologies use moncrystalline silicon coupled with proprietary cell design/ Examples include back contact-only modules and
HIT (heterojunction with intrinsic thin film layer) cells. Back-contact modules position the electrical contacts on the back of the cell, leaving the entire front surface free
to absorb power. Sanyos HIT cell, meanwhile, is a hybrid of monocrystalline silicon surrounded by ultra-thin amorphous silicon layers.
Source: GTM Research

remains to be seen if the incremental nature

of this form of technology improvement can
have enough of an impact to tangibly counteract the current deep cost declines and
product pricing pressure being placed on the
PV supply chain.
EPRIs Take: Cost, Value, and Efficiency
PV system economics depend on installed
cost, energy value, and system efficiencyall
are application dependent. Electricity value is
the most dependent on the application. For
example, electricity produced remotely from
load with a wholesale value is low compared to
electricity produced near the point of use with
a retail value. Related, the cost of integration
changes with the application and may be lower
for a utility or an end user and higher for a
third party producer. System costs also depend
on scale and complexity, such as roof-mount
compared to ground-mount and fixed installation compared to tracking.
With the above in mind, PV conversion efficiency is one of the most critical components
governing the basic, and often nuanced, equation to determine favorable PV system economics. As described in the DOEs recently
published SunShot Vision Study, the per-watt

Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

price of a PV system is directly proportional to

total installed system price and inversely proportional to system efficiency:

Consequently, reductions in the per-watt PV

system price can be achieved via two interrelated elements, either by decreasing the total
installed system price (via PV module, power
electronics, and BOS approaches) or increasing system efficiency (through greater sunlight-to-electricity PV module efficiency and/
or improved electrical efficiency of the integrated PV system). Meanwhile, tradeoffs
exist that can shape utility investment thinking. For example, high-efficiency PV modules
might cost more than lower-efficiency PV
modules on a per-Watt basis, but might
reduce non-module system costs due to their
higher efficiency. Also, per-Watt power electronics and BOS prices could be lower
because of lower equipment, labor, and land
requirements per Watt of installed capacity
associated with higher-efficiency modules.
Translation: numerous potential PV system
pathways, in fact, exist for reducing total
installed PV system prices.

That being said, utilities should remain

abreast of PV cell and module efficiency
developments with the expectation that nearterm innovations will be incremental in
nature and the time lapse between laboratory-based advances and commercial flow
through will be evident. No game changers
are likely to manifest themselves in this realm
of PV R&D.
For PV module manufacturers conversion efficiency gains are a step in the right direction,
but, on their own, they will not go a long way
toward making up for the significant erosion
in margins that has occurred in the last several
years. Improvements in efficiency and yield,
via production process improvements, capacity scale-up, and material usage reduction will
need to be simultaneously pursued to keep
pace with pricing expectations. (Semiconductor material, for example, accounts for about
60% of c-Si module cost and 8%22% of
CdTe and CIGS module cost.)

May 2012

EPRI Supplemental Project to Validate PV Performance, Reliability, and Cost

As part of a forthcoming supplemental

technology bankability. This in mind, all

malfunction will also be assessed).

project, EPRI will be examining the

tested systems, each to be sized at 10 kW

Potential means of improving the cost

performance and reliability of up to 10

to ensure statistical significance, will be

effectiveness of the PV systems will

different flat-plate PV technologies at the

confined to those deemed to have a

furthermore be identified, such as O&M

Solar Technology Acceleration Center

reasonable chance at long-term commercial

and design modification approaches that

(SolarTAC)the largest solar test bed

viability. Moreover, given their pronounced

can maximize energy output and reduce

facility in the United Statesin Aurora,

market expansion, a number of Chinese-

capital and O&M expenditures. All told,

Colorado. Open to additional funders,

based crystalline silicon products will be

the demonstration is intended to provide

the three-year study (SPN #1023540) is

included as part of the projects test group

utilities and other end users with

intended kick-off in the May/June

(see Table 5).

data-driven results to better warrant

timeframe and include side-by-side field

testing of both traditional and novel PV
module technologies, including a mix of
monocrystalline, c-Si, amorphous silicon,

long-term, large-scale future investment in

In addition to system performance report-

both mature and early commercial PV

ingwhich will encompass analysis of the

product choices.

various modes of PV operation, including

start-up, cloud transients, and normal

For more information: Cara Libby, Project

operationthe project will document the

Manager, 650-855-2382, clibby@epri.

The major objectives of the demonstra-

installation, commissioning, O&M, and

com.

tion are to analyze and validate system

decommissioning processes as well as their

output (including degradation and

associated costs. (Balance-of-system issues,

longevity issues) to, in turn, improve PV

such as module failure, wiring, and inverter

CIGS, and CdTe varieties.

Table 5. EPRI PV Supplemental Module Testing Targets

Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)

Amorphous Silicon (a-Si)

First Solar

The leading thin-film provider

Sharp

Abound Solar

Runner-up CdTe supplier

Monocrystalline

Primestar Solar

Financial security: backed by GE

SunPower

Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIS / CIGS)

Solar Frontier

The front-runner for CIGS, based on

deployment

Suniva

JA Solar

Global Solar

Suntech

Nanosolar
Solibro

Top CIGS manufacturers; Miasole and

Nanosolar recently received significant new
funding

Soltecture
Stion

Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

The U.S. domestic market leaders

Chinese Monocrystalline & Polycrystalline

Avancis

MiaSole

The leading a-Si player

Trina Solar

Chinese leaders in low-cost polycrystalline;

Suntech recently announced record
efficiency results for its Pluto cell

Yingli
Other (c-Si)
Sanyo

Offers a bi-facial c-Si-based panel product

May 2012

Technology Spotlight
In each edition of the PV Market Update, EPRI
spotlights a selected PV technology endowed
with novel engineering design features and concepts. These brief profiles are intended to provide members with introductory details on some
of EPRIs watch list of solar technologies that
the Institute believes offer breakthrough potential. For more in-depth information on these
product summaries, contact Adam Shor, EPRIs
Solar Innovation Scout, ashor@epri.com.
Technology Spotlight: tenKsolar
Bloomington, MN-based tenKsolar has developed a PV system that integrates solar modules and reflectors into a mounting arrangement configured in a repeated wave pattern.
The systems unique electrical interconnection
topology, along with its associated redundancies aimed at eliminating single points of failure, is designed to enable greater light absorption and, in turn, generate higher energy
density output compared with conventional
flat plate PV technologies. Intended for both
flat roof-mount and ground-mount applications, the tenKsolar product line offers potential for lower levelized cost of electricity
(LCOE) via higher yieldsachieved through
unverified efficiencies of up to 27-28%and
upfront savings in reduced labor and parts
through balance of system (BOS) novelty.
The major innovation of tenKsolars Redundant Array of Integrated Solar (RAIS) Wave

system involves uniquely orienting mono- and

poly-silicon-wafer modules, embedded with
conventional single junction solar cells, to
receive additional light from built-in reflectors.10 Based on 3M Cool Mirror Film Technology, the reflectors are mounted at a 45
angle on the backs of corresponding modules
(see Figure 7). Through the additional incident light, the company reports that modules
rated at 180W can achieve greater rated outputs exceeding 260W.
The RAIS Wave system electrical topology
consists of redundant integrated devices in
each module that allow for continued operation in the event of internal failure. In addition, the system is redundantly connected
on the DC side to multiple single phase
DC-AC converter boxes which are wired
into 480VAC three phase interconnections.
As a result, the converter boxes can, for
example, be actively managed to vary the
amount of energy delivered to each phase on
the grid. Separately, the company claims
that system layout can minimize partial
shading effects. Further, the wave-like racking structure avoids roof penetration,
requiring minimal ballast, and helping to
reduce the systems overall weight per square
foot (typically <4lbs). Consequently, the
BOS design can allegedly lessen the need for
structural modifications while increasing
resistance to wind loads.

tenKsolar is currently shipping systems and,

since 2011, has deployed roughly 4 MW of
product capacity. During the last week of
April, the company received $15.5 million in
financing from Hanwha of South Korea,
which owns a controlling stake in integrated
solar manufacturing firm, Hanwha SolarOne;
and ESB Novusmodus, a European clean-tech
investment fund backed by an Irish state utility. tenKsolar has also received a $503,000
U.S. federal stimulus grant.

Source:Swan Leasing, LLC

Figure 8. 15-kW tenKsolar Installation,

Minneapolis, Minnesota

EPRIs Take
tenKsolars technology appears well-positioned to serve large commercial flat roof
or utility scale ground mount applications
and capitalize on potentially favorable
LCOE metrics tied to high energy density
output. (Note: The system commands a
higher initial capital cost than competing
PV products due to its enhanced BOS, but
its higher performance can purportedly
accelerate overall return on project investment.) However, greater independent,
third-party laboratory and/or field assessment is needed to provide empirical evidence of system performance.
In late 2011, SAIC completed a bankability
study that evaluated the tenKsolar technologys long-term performance. (A summary of
results is available for download.) Meanwhile,
continuous on-site testing is currently underway. Still, EPRI recommends additional R&D
study be undertaken potentially at the Solar

Source: tenKsolar

Figure 7. tenKsolar System Overview

continued on page 11

10 tenKSolars product cannot currently integrate other manufacturers modules due to the impacts of non-uniform cell illumination, concentration, and the
corresponding higher module operating temperature.
Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

10

May 2012

Technology Spotlight
continued from page 10

Technology Acceleration Center (SolarTAC)

or a utility site to help gain utility and investor
confidence in the PV systems commercial
uptake. (A major investor-owned utility
located in the southeast has, for example,
recently purchased a tenKsolar system.)
Particular aspects of tenKsolars technology
that EPRI finds interesting and that would
benefit from evaluation include:
Non-standard approach to module design
and electrical system topology that enables
cell-level independence. tenKsolar has
eliminated internal series dependencies in
its modules and does not utilize bypass
diodes in its system, addressing many of
the root causes responsible for power

Solar PV Market Update Vol. 1

degradation and failure. According to

NREL, over 80% of failures in PV
modules emanate from failures in cell
interconnections, internal corrosion, cell
cracking, module-to-module connectors,
and bypass diode failure.
Integrated inverter scheme. The tenKsolar
system contains a redundant, in parallel
low voltage inverter configuration that is
intended to lessen the impact of potential
inverter failure on system power output.
Meanwhile, the ability of the modules to
handle all MPPT and voltage regulations
functions onboard, simplifies the role of
the inverter. As a result, the company
reports that inverter maintenance and
repair can be scheduled for five-year or
greater increments.

11

Racking integrity. The integrated nature

of the tenKsolar systemthe racking is
effectively comprised of modules and
reflectorspotentially simplifies installation by eliminating steps and labor cost.
Safety features. When the tenKsolar
system is disconnected, energy production
stops inside the module and the entire
array is made safe. Meantime, all
integrated PV modules individually
operate at below 10VDC, while arrays
function at below 60VDC.

May 2012

Export Control Restrictions

The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)

Access to and use of EPRI Intellectual Property is granted with the

The Electric Power Research Institute Inc., (EPRI, www.epri.com)

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TogetherShaping the Future of Electricity

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EPRI Resources
Nadav Enbar, Sr. Project Manager, Power Delivery & Utilization,
EPRI
303.551.5208, nenbar@epri.com
Integration of Distributed Renewables
(Program 174)
Cara Libby, Project Manager, Generation, EPRI
650.855.2382, clibby@epri.com
Solar Generation (Program 84)

1025103

May 2012

Electric Power Research Institute

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