BP Statistical Review

of World Energy
June 2011
bp.com/statisticalreview

2010 Energy Rebounds

Christof Rhl, Group Chief Economist

BP 2011

Outline
Introduction
Energy and the economy
Fuel by fuel
Conclusion

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The economy and energy demand

GDP

Energy

Annual change, %

Annual change, %

10%

6%

6%

4%

2%

2%

-2%

0%

-6%

World
OECD
Non-OECD
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal

10-year average

Gas
Oil

-2%
2006

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. GDP growth is expressed in real purchasing power parity (PPP) terms.

2008

2010
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Recession and recovery

Annual change, %

Annual change, %
6%

16%

8%

GDP
Energy

4%

2010

2%

0%

2009
-8%

0%

-16%

-2%

Trade Industry Energy

GDP

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

2007

2008

2009

2010

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GDP and energy growth

OECD

Non-OECD

Annual change, %

Annual change, %

5%

10%
GDP
Energy

3%

8%

1%

6%

-1%

4%

-3%

2%

-5%

0%
2007

2008

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics.

2009

2010

2007

2008

2009

2010

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Energy intensity
Energy intensity level

Toe/$Million per year

Toe/$Million
300

World
OECD
Non-OECD

260

Change in energy intensity

4
2

220

180

-2

Effect of increased
non-OECD weight

Net change

140

-4

100

-6

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics.

Change in energy
intensity

98-03

03-08

2009

2010

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Crude oil prices

$/bbl
150

12-month moving average volatility, %

50%

Dated Brent
Annual averages

120

40%

90

30%

60

20%

30

10%

Lowest since
March 1995

Dated Brent

0
2003

2005

Source: includes data from Platts.

2007

2009

2011

0%
Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

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Oil consumption and production

Annual change, Mb/d
4
OPEC production
Non-OPEC production
Global consumption

3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
1Q09

2Q09

Source: includes data from EIA.

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

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Oil consumption growth in 2010

Largest changes
Kb/d -200
China

200 400 600 800

Regional growth by fuel type

Kb/d

-100

100 200 300 400

Asia Pacific

US
Russia

N. America

Brazil

S&C America

Saudi Arabia
Singapore

Eur. & Eurasia

India

Middle East

Canada
France

Africa

Gasoil
Gasoline

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Oil production growth in 2010

Decline
Kb/d -300

-200

-100

Increase
0

100

200

300

400

Norway
UK

Non-OPEC
FSU
OPEC

Brazil
Canada
Saudi Arabia
Colombia
Qatar
Russia
Biofuels
US
China
Nigeria

Changes of more than 100 Kb/d.

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Oil inventories
OECD commercial oil stocks

Oil in floating storage

Mbbls

Mbbls

2900

160
05-09 Range

2010

Products
Crude

2011

2800

120

2700

80

2600

40

2500

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Source: includes data from Monthly Oil Data Services OECD/International Energy Agency May 2011 and from EA Gibson.

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Cumulative demand and production

Changes since 2005
Mb/d

Oil rig count and oil price

Index: Jan 2005 = 100

400
OPEC
Non-OPEC

6
4

NonOECD

Brent price

OPEC NGLs
Biofuels

200

Non-OPEC

0
-2

Iraq

300

OECD

OPEC-11
Crude

-4
Consumption
Source: includes data from Platts, Baker-Hughes.

Production

100

0
Jan-05

Jan-07

Jan-09

Jan-11

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Refining capacity and margins

Refining margins

Refining capacity
Mb/d

$/bbl
20

48
OECD
Non-OECD

BP RMM
10-yr. Av.
15

46

10

44

42

40
2005

2007

2009

Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon, Platts.

2011
ytd

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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Crude runs and light-heavy spreads

Light-heavy spreads

Crude runs and utilisation

Utilisation, %

Mb/d
45

$/bbl

90%

20

40

85%

15

35

80%

10

30

75%

25

70%

OECD
World (rhs)

1995

2000

Source: includes data from ESAI, Platts.

Non-OECD

2005

2010

LLS-Maya
10-yr. Av.

2005

2007

2009

2011
ytd

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Natural gas markets

Consumption and production growth

Prices

2010 vs 2009, Bcm

$/Mmbtu

250

14

200
150

12

Other

10

Asia

50

Europe
FSU

Consumption

UK NBP
US Henry Hub

4
2

N America

Germany

8
Mid East

100

Japan LNG

Production

0
2008

2009

2010

2011
ytd

Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA.

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US natural gas market

Horizontal gas and oil drilling
Number of horizontal rigs
800

Gas in power generation

Gas share in generation from coal and gas
40%

2008
2009
2010

Gas
Oil
600

35%

400

30%

200

25%

20%

Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Source: includes data from Smith Bits STATS, EIA.

1Q

2Q

3Q

4Q

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Global natural gas trade

Global gas trade growth

LNG trade links

Annual change, %
30%

Four main importers, av. number of sources

Pipeline

LNG

20%

11
14

10%

All exporters, av. number of markets

5

0%

2005

-10%

2009
9

2009
Source: includes data from Cedigaz, GIIGNL, CISStat.

2010

2010

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OECD Europe natural gas market

Prices

Import growth

$/Mmbtu

Annual change, %

15

40%
LNG

30%

12

Pipeline

20%

10%
6

0%

3
0
1Q07

-10%

Av. German Import Price

UK NBP
1Q08

1Q09

1Q10

-20%
1Q11

1Q07

Source: includes data from Platts, BAFA, Monthly Gas Data Service OECD/International Energy Agency May 2011.

1Q08

1Q09

1Q10

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Coal consumption and imports

Consumption changes

Chinas imports

Mtoe

Mtes

300

40

$/te

Price spread* (rhs)

RoW

200

EU

30

RoW
Indonesia
Australia

32

24

US

100

India
China

0
-100
-200
2006

2008

2010

Source: includes data from IHS CERA, IHS McCloskey.

*Spread between Chinas Qinhuangdao and Australias Newcastle coal prices.

20

16

10

0
1Q09

3Q09

1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

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Hydro and nuclear power consumption

Hydro

Nuclear

Annual change, %

Annual change, %

8%

8%

6%

6%

4%

4%

2%

2%

0%

0%

-2%

-2%

-4%

-4%
2000 2002

2004 2006

2008 2010

10-year average

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

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CO2 emissions
CO2 intensity of energy

CO2 emissions growth 2010

Tonnes of CO2 per toe

Contributions to growth

3.0

6%

Non-OECD

2.9

China

Coal

4%

2%

2.8

Other
nonOECD
OECD

2.7

Gas

OECD

2.6

Oil

0%
By region

World

By fuel

2.5
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

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Renewable energy
Renewables growth

Share of primary energy

Percent

Contributions to growth

2.0%

25%

Renewables in power
Biofuels

20%

1.5%

15%
1.0%

10%
0.5%

0.0%
2001

Renewables in power
5%

Biofuels
2004

2007

0%
2010

2001

2004

2007

2010

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Renewables in power
Share of power generation

Share of power generation in 2010

Percent

Percent

6%

0%
World
OECD
Non-OECD

4%

10%

20%

30%

Denmark
Portugal
New
Zealand

2%

Spain
Philippines

0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Germany

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Renewables in Germany and Spain

Spain

Germany

Power generation, TWh

Share of primary energy, %

400

6%

Oil
Gas
Coal
Solar
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear

300

4%

200
2%
Nuclear (1974-1983)
Renewables (2001-2010)

100

0%
1

9 10

Years after reaching 1% share

Source: includes data from MITyC.SEE.

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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Renewable power growth

Renewables consumption

Growth by region
Contributions to growth

Index: 2000=100

18%

1800

China

Other non-OECD

OECD

15%

1500

12%

1200

9%

900

6%

600

3%

300

0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Spain
China
Germany

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

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60 years of energy
World fuel shares

World GDP, energy and emissions

Percent

Index: 1950=100
1000

60%

Oil
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Renew

40%

20%

0%
1950

1970

1990

2010

GDP
Energy
CO2
700

400

100
1950

Source: includes data from Oxford Economics; Etemad, Luciani, Bairoch, and Toutain, 1991; Maddison, 2009.

1970

1990

2010

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60 years

BP Statistical Review of World Energy

June 2011
bp.com/statisticalreview

2010 Energy Rebounds

Q & A Christof Rhl

BP 2011

Thank you

60 years
BP Statistical Review

BP 2011