Panel of foreign experts gives thumbs-up to Basha Dam

After years of debate over whether Kalabagh Dam or Basha Dam should be built
first, it is beginning to look as if Basha may be built first. On June 14 the chairman of
the parliamentary committee on water resources said a panel of international
experts has declared Basha Dam as the best choice on technical grounds

By Kaleem Omar

Speaking at a press conference in Islamabad on June 14, Senator Nisar Memon,

chairman of the parliamentary committee on water resources, said that a panel of
foreign experts has declared the $6.7 billion Basha Dam as the best choice on
technical grounds and a lower human-displacement rate. But Memon then added a
caveat to his remarks, stating that the $5.6 billion Kalabagh Dam might still be
preferred for "other reasons," though he did not spell out what these other reasons
were.

He said: "Wapda has officially presented its reports to the committee on Kalabagh
Dam, Basha Dam and other dams, wherein Kalabagh and Basha dams have been
declared technically workable projects." He added that the committee is actively
considering holding a referendum on the Kalabagh Dam issue.

Memon said the committee has convened a meeting of the four provincial chief
ministers in the last week of June to take a final decision on the construction of the
dams.

Sources said the committee plans to meet on July 1 to finalise its report, afterwhich
the report would be submitted to the president, the prime minister and other high
government officials.

Tthe committee’s report will be submitted to the government after the submission of
the report on the overall water availability situation in the country by the technical
committee headed by A.G.N. Abbasi. But it is not clear whether the technical
committee will be able to sumbit its report on water availability by July 1.

Memon said the water issue has technical as well as political dimensions, and that
people have their ‘apprehensions’ in this regard. He said the committee wants to tell
people all the facts of the issue and that it was with this aim in mind that it has
launched a media campaign.

He said Wapda has given a briefing to the committee on various proposed big dams
and other water projects, including Kalabagh, Basha, Akhori and Taranzara dams,
the Kutchi canal and the Greater Thal Canal Project.

According to Memon, Kalabagh Dam will cost $5.85 billion, Basha Dam $6.7 billion
and Akhori Dam $1.6 billion. Kalabagh Dam would have a water storage capacity of
up to 6.1 million acre-feet (maf) and would generate 3,600 megawatts (MW) of
electricity. Basha Dam would have a water storage capacity of 7.3 maf (1.2 maf
more than Kalabagh) and would generate 4,600 MW of electricity (1,000 MW more
than Kalabagh).
Akhori Dam would have a water storage capacity of 6 maf and would generate 600
MW of electricity, while Skardu Dam would generate 3,500 MW of electricity.

Memon said that the Kalabagh Dam design and the feasibility study of Basha Dam
have been received. The feasibility report on Akhori Dam is expected to be ready by
April 2005. Taranzara Dam is at the pre-feasibility stage and the report is expected
in September 2005.

Commenting on the Kalabagh Dam, Memon said it is a technically viable project. But
he said members of the parliamentary committee have raised several objerctions to
the project. He said Wapda would soon give a reply to these objections.

According to Wapda, if the nation evolves a consensus on the construction of

Kalabagh Dam, work on the project could begin within a year. The dam’s reservoir
would displace 120,000 people. By comparison, the Basha Dam reservoir would
displace only 24,000 people. The Akhori Dam reservoir would displace 49,300
people.

Memon said that the feasibility report on Basha Dam has been received. He said a
committee of international experts was set up to review the report and has declared
it a workable project. Basha Dam would be built on the River Indus near the town of
Chilas in the Northern Areas. Memon said the dam would pose no threat to Chilas
and would not be affected by earthquakes.

He said the provincial chief ministers will be given a detailed briefing on the pros and
cons of the various proposed dams, and that a final decision in the matter will be
taken after the briefing. He added that President Musharraf had not given the
committee any instructions regarding which dam project should be selected.

Responding to a question, Memon told the press conference that no consensus has
been achieved so far on the construction of the next big dam because every province
has its own point of view on the issue.

Punjab is in favour of building Kalabagh Dam, while Sindh and NWFP have long been
bitterly opposed to it. Given the contentious nature of the issue, Pakistan’s best bet
would be to go ahead with building Basha Dam, to which no province has any
objection, leaving the resolution of the controversial question of whether or not
Kalabagh Dam should be built until later.

Speaking at the groundbreaking ceremony of the Mangla Dam raising project on

September 30, 2002, President Musharraf said that both Kalabagh Dam and Basha
Dam would have to be built to meet the country’s future water needs. He said that
over the last 15 to 20 years, the debate in the country had revolved around only
Kalabagh Dam, but no previous government had given serious thought to building
Basha Dam.

The site of the proposed Basha power project is located on the upper Indus River
314 kilometres upstream of Tarbela Dam. The dam will be 660 feet high, with a
gross storage capacity of 7.3 million acre feet (maf), a live storage capacity of 5.7
maf, and an installed power generation capacity, at full supply level, of 3,360
megawatts (MW) at a design net head of 476 ft. Power will be generated by 12
Francis turbines, each having a capacity of 205 MW.

At present prices, Basha’s cost has been estimated at a whopping $ 6.7 billion. So
finding the money for it is not going to be easy. Delays in starting work on the
project could increase the cost substantially, making the task of financing it even
more difficult. Given this fact, Wapda needs to get cracking with work on the project
without any further loss of time. The Basha power project was studied by Montreal
Engineering Company of Canada and is described in their 1984 feasibility report. This
was a detailed investigation, but the project requires further study before the final
design phase.

The project has received a limited amount of environmental investigation.

Preliminary studies and a reconnaissance mission by Asian Development Bank
experts a few years ago concluded that the environmental impacts would not be
severe. Some of the main issues relate to resettlement of the population whose
villages would come under the reservoir and relocation of parts of the Karakoram
Highway.

The 1983 estimate of the population affected by reservoir inundation was 13,600. By
the year 2000, estimates of the affected population had reached 22,000. The latest
estimates put the number of people that would be displaced by the dam at 24,300.

Although resettlement at Basha is on a much smaller scale than at Kalabagh, there

could be special concerns because the people of the area belong to an ethnic
minority. The Canadian company’s 1984 feasibility report was considered deficient in
certain respects by project reviewing agencies.

A panel of experts reviewed the report in 1988, with World Bank assistance. They
expressed concern regarding the inadequacy of investigation and made certain
recommendations in this regard.

Additional studies were considered necessary to upgrade the feasibility studies to the
level where Wapda and the government could take a decision about going ahead
with the project.

According to Wapda, there has been resistance to the project by the local population
- right from the start, causing disruption in investigation works by Wapda. The main
demands of the locals are:

(a) settlement of the project boundary dispute; (b) a share in the royalty accruing
from the revenue of the project; and (c) numerous other demands, including the
employment of locals on the project, compensation for lands and houses that would
be inundated by the reservoir, and a change in the name of the project to Diamir
Dam.

Efforts were made at government-level to resolve these issues. In this connection

four high-level meetings were held during 1990 to 1992 in the Ministry of Kashmir
Affairs and Northern Areas (KANA) at Islamabad, but without yielding any concrete
results.
On September 12, 1995 the Ministry of KANA constituted a standing committee to
deal with the problem. The committee asked Wapda to prepare an incentive package
for compensation and rehabilitation. Wapda then circulated policy guidelines on
resettlement and rehabilitation for the affectees.

The committee asked the deputy commissioner (DC) Chilas to arrange meetings with
the elders of the area to sort out project issues. Again, however, these meetings
yielded no tangible results.

The committee also asked the director photogrammetry to demarcate at sites the
boundary in coordination with the DC Diamir and the DC Kohistan. The director
subsequently reported that the claims of Kohistan and Diamir were wide apart and
recommended that a commission be formed at an appropriate level to resolve the
issue.

Intriguingly, the committee also advised the local administration to "work at site in a
low profile". All field acitivities, the committee said, should be low-profile and should
be carried out in a "camouflaged manner", with the exception of the drilling
operation which was site specific and could not be camouflaged.

On October 5, 1998 the Minister for Water and Power chaired a meeting on Basha
Dam in Islamabad. Officials of the Northern Areas, the Ministry of Kashmir Affairs
and Northern Areas, and the Ministry of Water and Power attended the meeting. At
this meeting the minister announced that the name of the Basha Dam Project had
been changed to Diamir Dam Project.

BASHA DAM

KEY FACTS

Dam Type: Zoned earth-rockfill with central core

Location: Chilas on the River Indus

Height: 200 metres (660 ft.) (above river bed)

Length of crest: 3,018 feet

Reservoir Area: 27,700 acres

Catchment Area: 152,100 km2

Gross Head: 145 m (476 feet)

Average Flow: 1,970 m3/sec (69,600 ft3/sec)

Design Flood Discharge: 19,300 m3/sec (682,000 cusecs)

Total Storage Capacity: 9.0 km3 (7.3 MAF)

Live Storage Capacity: 7.0 km3 (5.7 MAF)

Total Volume of Dam: 58 million yards3

Total Volume of Fill: 44 million m3

Installed Capacity for Hydropower: 3,360 MW from 12 units

Energy Generated: 14.1 GWh

Spillway Type: Overflow, with concrete lined chute,

flip bucket and plunge pool

Spillway Gates: 6 - 16.6 x 20 metres (54.5 x 65.6 ft)