Nuclear disarmament as the United Nations turns 70

Guy C. Quinlan, President, Lawyers Committee on Nuclear Policy

In January 2015, NGOCDPS member Guy Quinlan, president of Lawyers
Committee on Nuclear Policy, delivered these comments on the history and
importance of nuclear disarmament efforts at the UN at the Committee on
Teaching About the United Nations (CTAUN) Conference, The UN at 70.
Thank you for inviting me to speak at your celebration of the UNs 70-year
historya history that began, as Im sure you recall, with a resolution calling for
the elimination of atomic weapons. As it happens, this year also marks two other
significant anniversaries.
It is now 45 years since the Nonproliferation Treaty entered into force in 1970. In
that treaty the Nuclear Weapon States made a solemn commitment to negotiate
in good faith for the cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date, and for
nuclear disarmament. This is a commitment that the International Court of
Justice has held to be a binding obligation under international law.
But as we meet here today, 45 years later, the planet is still infested by more
than 16,000 nuclear weapons. A majority of these weapons have many times the
destructive force of the bombs that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And, far
from eliminating their arsenals, the Nuclear Weapons States are modernizing
and enhancing them, with a view to perpetuating them for decades to come.

It has been estimated that the worlds nuclear powers may spend a trillion dollars
on modernization over the next decade, and that estimate is probably too low.
Enormous resources, which could be used to combat poverty and disease, to
build schools and health clinics, to develop sustainable agriculture and
renewable energy, instead are being wasted on these instruments of death.
This week also marks the 20th anniversary of an incident in which the world
came within minutes of an accidental nuclear war that would have ravaged the
entire planet. On January 25, 1995, a civilian weather research rocket was
launched from the coast of Norway, near the coast of Russia. Norway had given
notice of the launch, but somehow that notice had failed to reach the right people
in the Russian military. By coincidence, some of the characteristics of the
weather rocket appeared similar on radar to the characteristics of a submarinelaunched ballistic missile. All the alarms sounded, President Yeltsin was notified,
and his nuclear briefcase was activated in preparation for a retaliatory
response. Fortunately, before any retaliation was launched, defense officials
were able to determine that the rockets flight path was not a threat.
And this was only one of several incidents over the years in which, through
human or computer error, the world has come to the brink of nuclear war. In one
such incident on the American side, a training tape of a simulated attack was
mistakenly inserted into a central warning system. Again, the error was
discovered just in time.
On another occasion a radar malfunction made it appear that the Soviet Union,
as it then was, was under attack from incoming nuclear missiles. The lieutenant
colonel on duty in the situation room correctly guessed that it was a false alarm,
and managed to persuade his superiors to hold off on retaliation. And there have
been other such incidents that we know about, and no doubt many others which
never became public knowledge.
In each of these instances so far, humanity has been lucky. The question is
whether we should bet the future of our children and our grandchildren on the
assumption that our luck will last forever.
Today, despite these repeated warnings of potential catastrophes, both the
United States and the Russian Federation still maintain hundreds of nuclear
missiles on high alert, ready to be launched on a few minutes notice. By taking
these irrational risks, the nuclear powers are jeopardizing not only themselves
but the entire human family. Scientific studies have shown that an exchange of
the present U.S. and Russian arsenals would cause climate conditions not seen
since the last Ice Age, and threaten the survival of the human species. The
climate changes caused by even a regional nuclear war, fought with relatively
small atomic weapons, could cause a collapse of world agriculture, putting two
billion people at risk of famine.

But there are also hopeful signs that much of the world is finally beginning to
address the nuclear danger with the urgency it deserves. Here at the United
Nations, a majority of the worlds non-nuclear weapons states are pressing
demands that the nuclear powers fulfill the commitment which they made almost
half a century ago, by living up to their treaty obligation of good faith
disarmament negotiations.
In 2012 the General Assembly, by an overwhelming majority, established the
Open Ended Working Group to pursue new pathways for multilateral
disarmament negotiations. In 2013 and 2014 more than a hundred countries
participated in the international conferences held at Oslo, Nyarit, and Vienna to
focus attention on the horrific humanitarian consequences of nuclear explosions.
At last years Preparatory Committee for the NPT Review Conference, the nonnuclear weapons states were increasingly vocal in their demands for serious
action on disarmament, and those demands will undoubtedly intensify at the
Review Conference to be held here this spring. In an especially hopeful
development, increasing numbers of young people, especially in Europe and
Asia, are raising their voices in protest against the nuclear threat to their future.
Unfortunately, however, these hopeful developments have not attracted much
public attention, or media attention, in the nuclear weapons states. Most citizens
of the nuclear powersincluding my own country, the United Stateshave not
really felt the urgency of the need for nuclear disarmament.
And that is why I am especially grateful to you for making time in your program
today to consider the issue. As teachers you have an extremely vital role to play
in spreading knowledge about the nuclear danger and the need for action.
Because, inevitably, this issue casts a shadow over all the other topics we have
been discussing here today. To realize any of the goals discussed here todaysustainable development, human rights, the elimination of extreme poverty- we
must free humanity from the mortal danger, and the resource-draining burden, of
nuclear weapons. We can do this. And, with your help, we will. Thank you.