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2
The Roles of Financial Managers
Real Assets VS Financial Assets
Real Assets:
Financial Assets:
Diagram:
2. Capital Structure Choice or Financing Decision: How should cash be raised to finance real assets?
Thus, financing decision identifies the appropriate source or mixture of financial assets (stocks,
bonds and/or bank loans) that support the firms existing operations as well as the firms new
investments.
3
The Goal of the corporation is to maximize the current market value of shareholders' equity
or wealth:
Current market value of shareholders' equity = # of shares outstanding current stock price
Related implications:
- A good project or real asset results in an increase stock price and thus the current market value of
shareholders equity, thereby consistent with the goal of the corporation.
- Two crucial elements that determine how good or valuable the project is:
- Size and timing of the projects cash flows: Due to the "time value of money" concept,
today's values of two cash flows occurring at two different points in time differ.
- The riskiness or uncertainty of the projects cash flows: This should not be too high
because investors are risk averse and they require at least a fair return to compensate the
level of risk they are taking.
- Capital budgeting decision and financing decision are typically separated or independent of each
other. What does this statement mean?
- How valuable the project or real asset is (i.e., capital budgeting decision) should not depend
on how we raise the money to finance it (i.e., financing decision).
Example: Machine A financed with equity versus Machine A financed with equity + debt
Should the value of Machine A change a result of different sources or mixtures of financing?
No. The value of Machine A should not change as a result of equity financing versus equity
+ debt financing because, apparently, the same machine is being obtained. The value of this
machine should depend on whether or not it will produce goods that consumers want and
hence will bring significant cash flows to the firm, not on how it is financed.
- Separation of capital budgeting and financing decisions should motivate managers to focus
on identifying a truly valuable project (based on cash flows expected from the project and the
risk of these cash flows) rather than on seeking the "right" mixture of financing (e.g., cheap
financing) to support a mediocre or bad project (e.g., one with poor cash flows).
- We will learn in class that, in many cases, the "right" mixture of financing in fact does not
exist. That is the value of the project is independent of how it is financed.
- However, in many cases as well, capital budgeting decision and financing decision have some
interaction.
- We will learn later in class that the mixture or choice of financing can impact value.
Using the same example as above, Machine A financed with equity + debt may be more
valuable than Machine A financed only with equity. Despite the fact the same machine is
being acquired, financing partly with debt leads to interest expenses (which are tax
deductible), lower taxable income and hence tax savings that add value to the firm.
- Thus, in these cases, both a truly valuable project and an appropriate mixture of financing
help increase value. That is the value of the project is not entirely independent of how it is
financed.
4
Time Value of Money
Future Value of Money
Refers to the amount an investment will grow to after one or more periods.
Example: Suppose you invest $100 in an account paying 10% each year. How much will you
have at the end of Year 2?
FV = $X(1 + r )t
The expression (1 + r)t is called the future value factor. This formula assumes that all interest is
reinvested at the interest rate r.
Example: What would your $100 investment be worth after 5 years if the interest rate is 10%
per year?
5
Future Values of Multiple Uneven Cash Flows
Calculate the future value of each cash flow and then sum these future values to find total FV.
Example: Suppose your rich uncle offers to help pay for your business school education by giving
you $15,000 now, $10,000 one year from now and $5,000 two years from now. You plan to deposit
this money into an interest-bearing account so that you can attend business school six-years from
today. Assume you earn 4.25% per year on your account. How much will you have saved in total in
six years?
Year
Cash Flow
15,000
10,000
5,000
Future Value
Three methods:
1. Long approach
2. Compact formula
FV(Annuity) =
C
(1 + r )t - 1
r
Example: Suppose you plan to retire ten years from today. You plan to invest $2,000 a year at the
end of each of the next ten years. You can earn 8% per year on your money. How much will your
investment be worth at the end of the tenth year?
1
$X
PV = $X
=
t
(1 + r ) t
(1 + r )
The expression 1/(1 + r)t is called the present value factor or discount factor. Calculating the present
value of a future cash flow to determine its worth is commonly called discount cash flow valuation.
Three different wordings for the same "r" in present value calculation:
- "discount rate" (because the process of finding the present value is called discounting)
- "opportunity cost of capital" (the highest return available in capital markets on the investment
with similar risk. This is based on the "law of one price". Same risk, same return. Similar risk,
similar return.)
- "required return" (because it is the rate of return that should be received by investors given the
risk of an investment. If the investment provides less than the required return, investors will
instead invest in a similar risk investment that provides at least the required return.)
Example: What is the present value of the cash flow of $5,000 to be received 4 years
from now with the discount rate of 10%?
+ PV(benefits)
A positive NPV project is attractive because it implies that PV(benefits) is greater than
cost, resulting in value addition to the firm in the amount of $NPV.
Also,
NPV = - Cost
+ Fair price
Thus, a positive NPV project also implies that the cost paid is less than the fair price. We
love the bargain!
Example: Your manager proposes to buy an asset for $350 million. You expect to sell
the asset in four years for $520 million. Assume that the asset generates no income
between the time you buy the asset and the time you sell the asset. You also know that
you could invest the $350 million elsewhere and earn 10%. How much is the NPV and
should you buy this asset?
10
11
CF
$2,400
$3,200
$6,800
$8,100
Similar assets earn 8% per year. How much is the present value of future cash flows
generated by the asset? Further, if the asset costs $14,000, should the firm invest in this
asset?
12
Three methods:
1. Long approach
2. Compact formula
PV(Annuity) =
C
r
1
1 (1 + r
)
t
Example: You are considering purchasing a contract offered by an insurance company for your
parents. It promises to pay them $20,000 a year for the rest of their life. If their life expectancy is
25 more years from now and the interest rate is 8%, what is the fair price of this contract?
13
r g r g 1 + r
Example: Walter Maxwell, a second-year MBA student, has just been offered a job at
$50,000 a year. He anticipates his salary to increase by 9% a year until his retirement 40
years from now. Given an interest rate of 20%, what is the present value of his lifetime
salary? For simplicity, assume that his first salary will be received at the end of each year
and the first one occurs one year from today.
Example: You have recently purchased an oil well at $700,000. Just prior to your
purchase, the well has generated a cash flow (C0) of $100,000 which will grow at the rate
of 5% a year. This well will last for only 10 years. Did you make the right decision? (r =
12%)
C0 = $100,000
C1 =
14
PV(GrowingPerpetuity) =
C1
C 0(1 + g )
=
rg
rg
Example: Suppose an investment offers the cash flow next year of $800 which will grow at the
rate of 4% every year. The return you require on such an investment is 6%. What is the value of
this investment?
15
PV(Perpetuity) =
C
r
Example: Suppose an investment offers some perpetual cash flows of $800 every year. The
return you require on such an investment is 6%. What is the value of this investment?
16
Delayed Growing Perpetuity: The first cash flow of growing perpetuity starts at t > 1
What is the present value of a growing perpetuity which starts 6 yrs from now at $100 and grows
at the 5% rate, given r = 10%?
17
Another Application Example: An insurance company is offering a new policy to its customers. Its
target customers for this policy are parents of the newly born babies. The purchaser is expected to
make the following six payments to the insurance company:
First birthday
Second birthday
Third birthday
Fourth birthday
Fifth birthday
Sixth birthday
$800
$800
$900
$900
$1,000
$1,000
After the childs sixth birthday, no more payments are made. When the child reaches the age of 65,
he/she receives $350,000. If the relevant interest rates are 11% for the first six years and 7% for all
subsequent years, is the policy worth buying?
18
)
t
and:
FV = PV(1 + r )t
FV t
r=
-1
PV
Example: What interest rate makes $100 today grow to $180 in 5 years?
19
FV = PV(1 + r )
FV
t
PV = (1 + r )
FV
ln
= t [ ln(1 + r)]
PV
FV
ln
PV
t=
ln(1 + r)
20
When an interest rate is evaluated more than once per year (compounded interest)
and/or when cash flows occur more than once per year, we must be very careful!
Stated rate or quoted rate or Annual Percentage Rate (APR): The rate before considering any
compounding effects, such as 10% compounded semiannually.
Effective Annual Rate (EAR): The rate, on an annual basis, that reflects compounding effects,
such as 10% compounded semiannually gives an effective rate of 10.25%.
Why?
21
Calculating EAR
An investment of $1 at a rate of r per year compounded m times a year will result in the
total amount of:
1 + m
EAR = 1 + - 1
m
Examples:
1. What is the EAR for 12% compounded monthly?
5. What is the EAR for the quoted rate of "15% compounded every 65 days"?
22
23
24
Example: You decided to set up a scholarship for students at a high school you once attended.
The plan is for the scholarship to award $20,000 per quarter in perpetuity. The first scholarship is
to be paid 5 years from today. How much money do you have to deposit to set up the fund today
given the quoted interest of 6% per year?
Example: You decided to set up a scholarship for students at a high school you once attended.
The plan is for the scholarship to award $20,000 per year in perpetuity. The first scholarship is to
be paid 5 years from today. How much money do you have to deposit to set up the fund today
given the quoted interest rate of 6% per year compounded quarterly?
25
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3
4
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26.5
Additional Example: You just bought a home for $600,000 in which you made a down payment
of $200,000. You obtained a 30-year mortgage at a 5% annual rate to finance the balance. If you
make fixed monthly payments, what loan balance will remain immediately after the 60th
payment?
Some observations
Page 23 Example: Equal-Installment Loan Contracts
Initial Quoted Rate / APR
<
_______%
<
_______%
EAR
_______%
|___________________Why?______________| |______________Why?___________|
<
<
EAR
_______%
|___________________Why?______________| |______________Why?___________|
27
Nominal and Real Rates of Interest
So far, the rate of return used is the nominal rate of return. To calculate the real rate of return
which incorporates an adjustment for the change in purchasing power, the following relationship
is used:
(1 + nominal rate of return) = (1 + real rate of return)(1 + inflation rate)
Thus,
Example: If the nominal rate of return is 10% and the inflation rate is 5%, what is the real rate of
return?
Further, we may wish to adjust the cash flow at time t to reflect the change in purchasing power
until time t. The following relationship is used:
real cash flowt = nominal cash flowt
(1 + inflation rate)t
Example: How much would you accumulate in real terms if you invest $1,000 for 20 years at
10% with the inflation rate of 6% per year?
Nominal Approach: nominal input, nominal rate, nominal output
28
Example: CF0 = $500 which will grow at the rate of 10%, inflation rate = 10%. What is the real CF
at time 15?
29
Example: Your real estate company is considering the purchase of an apartment complex that
currently generates a cash flow of $400,000 per year. The cash flow is expected to grow with the
inflation rate of 4% a year. The nominal required return is 10% a year. How much would your
company be willing to pay for the complex if it will produce the cash flows forever?
30
Example: Your real estate company is considering the purchase of an apartment complex that
currently generates a cash flow of $400,000 per year. The cash flow is expected to grow with the
inflation rate of 4% a year. The nominal required return is 10% a year. How much would your
company be willing to pay for the complex if it will be torn down in 20 years? Assume that, net
of demolition costs, the site will be worth $5 million in nominal terms at that time.
31
Two basic sources of financing of the firm are stocks and bonds. We need to understand how they
are valued so that: (1) we know how much money we can raise by issuing them and (2) we can
estimate the fair returns required by stockholders and bondholders and hence know if the proposed
project at least provides sufficient returns to these investors.
Common Stocks
The price of stock today is equal to the present value of all expected future dividends.
P0=
D IV 1
D IV 2
D IV 3
+
+
+ ...
1
2
(1 + r )
(1 + r )
(1 + r )3
The above formula is a general formula, but impractical since, say, we cannot predict dividend
payments 20-30 years from now. To overcome this complication, we need to simplify and make
some assumptions about future stock prices, dividends and/or patterns of dividends.
1. Assuming that dividends over the investment horizon and stock price at the end of
investment horizon is known
P0 =
DIV1
DIV2
DIVH + PH
+
+ ... +
1
2
(1 + r ) (1 + r )
(1 + r ) H
32
P0 =
DIV
r
Example: Suppose a firm's annual dividend is expected to remain constant at $1 per share
forever. The discount rate appropriate for the risk of the dividends is 10% per year. What is the
current price of a share?
In this case, a firm's dividends are expected to increase at a g% annual rate. Applying the future
value concept, the value of a dividend at year t is:
This is an example of a growing perpetuity. As long as g < r, the price of a share with the rate of
dividends growing at the rate of g is:
P0 =
Example: Suppose a firm just paid an annual dividend of $10 per share. Future dividends are
expected to increase at a 5% annual rate. The expected rate of return is 10% per year. What is
the current price per share of the firm?
Example: Suppose a firm is expected to pay an annual dividend of $10 per share starting next
year. Future dividends are expected to increase at a 5% annual rate. The expected rate of return
is 10% per year. What is the current price per share of the firm?
33
Thus far, we have taken the discount factor or the required rate of return or the expected return
as given.
Recall,
P0 =
DIV 1
(r - g)
Solve for r,
r=
DIV 1
+g
P0
This tells use the required rate of return or the expected rate of return on a firm's stock has two
components:
1. The dividend yield, DIV1/P0
2. The growth rate g (the capital gain yield).
Example: Suppose a stock has just paid an annual dividend of $1, and g = 10% per year. Suppose
we observe a price of $10. If you forecasted the growth rate correctly, what rate of return can you
expect from this stock?
Example: Suppose a stock is expected to an annual dividend of $1 next year, and g = 10% per year.
Suppose we observe a price of $10. If you forecasted the growth rate correctly, what rate of return
does this stock offer you?
33.5
Proof that the growth rate g is the same as capital gain yield
Capital gain yield is the percentage change in stock prices over one period = (P1 - P0)/P0.
Sometimes this yield is called "capital appreciation". Let's assume that you buy a stock today.
One year from now, the stock pays the dividend DIV1 and you sell the stock at the expected price
P1. Thus, Thus, the fair price of stock today (P0) must equal to the present value of future cash
flows (DIV1 and P1) to be received.
P0 =
DIV1 + P1
(1 + r )
DIV + P
(1 + r ) = 1 1
P0
(1 + r=
)
DIV1 P1
+
P0
P0
r=
DIV1 P1
+
1
P0
P0
r=
DIV1 P1 P0
+
P0
P0 P0
=
r
DIV1 P1 P0
+
P0
P0
******
Hence, we have two equivalent formulae for r, implying that the capital gain yield must be the
same as the growth rate g.
33.75
Example: The expected dividend one year from now is $2. The dividend growth rate is 4%. The
current price of stock is $20. What is the required return on stock (based on r is equal to dividend
yield + growth rate g)? What is the expected price one year from now? Also show that the
capital gain yield is the same as the growth rate g
34
If a firm elects to pay lower dividends out of its given earnings and reinvest the funds, the stock
price may increase because future dividends may be higher due to growth.
Payout Ratio - Fraction of earnings paid out as dividends
Plowback Ratio - Fraction of earnings retained or reinvested by the firm.
Growth can be derived from applying the return on equity to the percentage of earnings plowed
back into operations.
Example: Our company forecasts to have a $5.00 EPS next year. Given a 12% expected return,
how much is the stock price if we decide not to plow back any earnings? In contrast, how much
is the stock price if we decide to plow back 40% of the earnings at the firms current return on
equity of 20%?
Plowing back some earnings; only portion of earnings is paid as dividends; growth is non-zero.
g = ROE * Plowback Ratio =
DIV1 =
Price =
Present value of growth opportunities (PVGO) = Price with growth Price with no growth
35
4. Varying Growth Rates
A single constant growth assumption may be unrealistic. Examples of more realistic approaches:
- Forecast dividends for each period for some initial periods and then assume a constant growth
afterwards.
- Assume initial growth of g1 for some initial periods and g2 afterwards, where g2 < g1.
Example: Dividends are forecasted to be $0, $0.31, $0.65 and $0.67 in years 1, 2, 3 and 4,
respectively. After year 4, dividends are expected to grow at a constant rate of 4%. What should be
the stock price if the required return is 10%?
Example: A stock has just paid a $1 dividend which is expected to grow at the rate of 10% for the
next 3 years and at the rate of 5% onwards. How much is this stock worth per share if the required
return is 20%?
36
36.5
Additional insight into valuation: Using free cash flows to value stocks
Free cash flow available for investors = Operating cash flow - Investment expenditures
necessary for growth
Since investors in the firm comprise stockholders and bond/debt holders,
Free cash flow available
to equity/ stock holders
(FCFE)
+ increase in
net debt
Example: Free cash flows available to stockholders are forecasted to be $30.5088M and
$38.7492M for the next two years, respectively. Afterwards, these free cash flows will converge
on the industry growth rate of 13%. The required return on equity is 14%. If there are 84M
shares outstanding, what is the current fair price of stock?
37
Bonds
The current price of bond is the present value of the expected coupon or interest payments each
period until the maturity date on which the principal or par value is also received. The relevant
discount rate for bond pricing is specifically called yield to maturity. It is the required return or
expected return for bond investors who hold the bonds until maturity.
Example: Bond Pricing--Annual Coupon Paying Bond
- 20 year XYZ Corporation bond
- $1,000 face value
- 8% annual coupon payments
- Yield to maturity = 6%
How much is the price of this bond?
38
39
Expected or Realized Returns over Investment Horizons: Sometimes investors do not hold bonds
until maturity for various reasons. Hence, by definition, YTM is not an appropriate measure of
returns investors really receive.
Example: Today you have just purchased a semi-annual coupon paying bond at $1,050. This bond
has a par value of $1,000 and an 8% coupon rate. It is expected that in three years you will be able to
see the bond at $1,025. How much is your expected return per year?
Example: Four years ago, you purchased a semi-annual coupon paying bond with a 10% coupon
rate at the price of $950. You can sell the bond now for $1,025. What is your realized rate of return
per year?
$0.
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42
Application example: FV of multiple uneven cash flows and compound interest
John Doe will deposit the following into his retirement account:
End of month
amount
1
$1,000
2
$1,500
3
$2,000
After 3 months, he will not add any more money. How much money will he have in his
retirement account 20 years or 240 months from now? The interest rate is 10% per year.
Another example: APY is 3.30%. What is the quoted rate? If you deposit $1,000 today, how
much money will you have 120 days or 4 months from now?
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