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April 22, 2015

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Stock Update >> Yes Bank
Stock Update >> Persistent Systems

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investors eye

stock update

Yes Bank

Reco: Buy

Stock Update

Growth momentum continues, asset quality stable


Key points

Company details
Price target:

Rs930

Market cap:

Rs33,241 cr

52 week high/low:

Rs910/429

NSE volume:
(no. of shares)

CMP: Rs796

27.1 lakh

BSE code:

532648

NSE code:

YESBANK

Sharekhan code:

YESBANK

Free float:
(no. of shares)

32.6 cr

Operating performance improves: For Q4FY2015, Yes Bank reported a strong


growth in profits (up 28% YoY to Rs551 crore) contributed by a robust growth in
the net interest income (up 36% YoY). Advances growth remained strong (up
36% YoY), while the net interest margin was stable at 3.2% QoQ. The CASA ratio
improved to 23.1% from 22.6% in Q3FY2015.
Asset quality stays healthy: The asset quality remained stable though
restructured loans (0.5% of advances vs 0.26% in Q3FY2015) increased in
Q4FY2015. Provisions showed a jump of 75% YoY largely due to counter-cyclical
provision of Rs50.7 crore (with a total counter-cyclical provision of Rs105 crore
in FY2015). The management has guided for credit cost of 60-80BPS for FY2016.
Maintain Buy with PT of Rs930: Given the banks thrust on growth, we expect
Yes Bank to grow its advances by 23% CAGR over FY2015-17 resulting in a 22%
growth in earnings. The bank is embarking on its version 3 phase which should
result in further improvement in qualitative parameters. We maintain our Buy
rating on the stock with an unchanged price target of Rs930 (2.4x FY2017 BV).

Shareholding pattern

Results

Price chart

Price performance
(%)

1m

3m

-5.8

-8.4

25.7

82.2

Relative -3.9
to Sensex

-4.5

20.4

47.6

Absolute

6m 12m

Rs cr

Particulars

Q4FY15

Q4FY14

YoY %

Q3FY15

QoQ %

Interest income
Interest expense
Net interest income
Non-interest income
Net total income
Operating expenses
Employee expenses
Other operating expenses
Pre-provisioning profit
Provisions
Profit before tax
Tax
Profit after tax
Asset quality
Gross NPAs
Gross NPAs (%)
Net NPAs
Net NPAs (%)
Capital adequacy (%)
CAR
Tier I
Key reported ratios (%)
NIM
CASA

3,088.4
2,111.3
977.1
590.4
1,567.5
630.0
261.9
368.2
937.5
126.4
811.1
260.2
551.0

2,568.1
1,848.5
719.6
445.5
1,165.1
484.7
203.8
280.8
680.4
72.3
608.1
177.9
430.2

20.3
14.2
35.8
32.5
34.5
30.0
28.5
31.1
37.8
74.8
33.4
46.2
28.1

2,971.7
2,062.6
909.0
536.8
1,445.8
583.1
254.1
329.0
862.7
69.9
792.9
252.6
540.3

3.9
2.4
7.5
10.0
8.4
8.0
3.1
11.9
8.7
80.9
2.3
3.0
2.0

313.4
0.41
87.7
0.12

174.9
0.31
26.1
0.05

79.2
10 BPS
236.5
7 BPS

278.7
0.42
64.5
0.10

12.5
-1 BPS
36.0
2 BPS

15.60
11.50

14.40
9.80

120 BPS
170 BPS

16.70
11.90

-110 BPS
-40 BPS

3.20
23.12

3.00
22.03

20 BPS
109 BPS

3.20
22.61

0 BPS
51 BPS

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April 22, 2015

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stock update

Strong growth in advances drives NII growth

Asset quality remains stable, restructured loans rise

Yes Banks net interest income (NII) for Q4FY2015 grew


by 36% year on year (YoY) to Rs977 crore (higher than our
estimates) largely driven by a pick-up in advances growth
(up 36% YoY). The incremental growth in advances mainly
came in from commercial banking (up 38% YoY) and
branch-banking activities (partly due to priority sector
related lending). The corporate banking which constitutes
64.7 % of the book showed a growth of 39% YoY. We expect
the bank to sustain above industry growth (23%
compounded annual growth rate [CAGR] over FY2015-17)
over the next two years with an increase in proportion of
small and medium enterprises (SME) and retail loans.

The asset quality was largely maintained during the


quarter as the gross non-performing assets (GNPAs)
declined by 1BPS to 0.41 while net non-performing assets
(NNPAs) were marginally up by 2BPS to 0.12 on a quarterly
basis. The bank has not sold any non-performing assets
(NPAs) during the quarter. However, the restructured book
surged to Rs381 crore (0.5% of advances) from Rs170 crore
in Q3FY2015 (but remains significantly low as compared
with its peer banks). The overall asset quality still remains
largely stable. The provisions during the quarter surged
by 74% YoY mainly due to excess standard asset provision
(counter-cyclical provision) of around Rs50.7 crore.

Advances growth (%)

Asset quality

NIM remains stable and is likely to improve


The net interest margin (NIM) during Q4FY2015 remained
stable at 3.2% quarter on quarter (QoQ) despite a 15-20
-basis point (BPS) drag due to liquidity coverage ratio
requirements. The cost of funds declined by 30BPS QoQ
which was largely offset by a 20-BPS quarter-on-quarter
(Q-o-Q) drop in the yield on loans. The current account
and savings account (CASA) ratio showed an improvement
of 51BPS QoQ to 23% led by a 35% year-on-year (Y-o-Y)
growth in the savings deposits. The granularity of deposits
continues to improve as the share of retail deposits
increased to 48% from 42% YoY.

Non-interest income jumps up by 32%


The non-interest income surged by 32% YoY, mainly driven
by a 116% growth in the financial market income (including
a Rs21-crore gain on the bond book) and a strong 33.6%
growth in the retail fee income. The transaction banking
and financial advisory which together constitute 62% of
the non-interest income grew by 17% and 18% respectively.
The cost to income ratio was stable at 40.2%.
Break-up of non-interest income (Rs cr)

NIM (%)

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April 22, 2015

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stock update

Capital raising on anvil

further improvement in qualitative parameters. We


maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an unchanged
price target of Rs930 (2.4x FY2017 book value).

The bank has a Tier I capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of


11.5% (total CAR of 15.6%) and the management expects
to sustain the same over the next 12-18 months. However,
the banks board had approved a proposal to raise $1
billion of capital in one or tranches via qualified
institutional placement (QIP) or American depository
receipts (ADR) and may look to raise capital depending
upon suitable opportunities. The capital raising could
potentially dilute the return ratios and may affect the
stocks performance.

One-year forward P/BV band

Valuation and outlook


Given the managements thrust on growth, we expect
Yes Bank to grow its advances by 23% CAGR over FY201517, resulting in a 22% growth in earnings. The bank is
embarking on a version 3 phase which should result in
Profit and loss statement
Particulars

FY15

FY16E FY17E

Net interest income

2,219 2,716 3,488

4,228 5,284

Non-interest income

1,257

1,722

2,046

2,568

3,144

Net total income

3,476

4,438

5,534

6,796

8,428

Operating expenses

1,335

1,750

2,285

2,840

3,356

Pre-provisioning profit

2,142 2,688 3,250

FY13

Provision & contingency


Profit before tax

FY14

216

362

339

1,926 2,326 2,910

Tax

625

Profit after tax

709

905

1,301 1,618 2,005

Particulars
FY13
Per share data (Rs)
Earnings
36.3
Dividend
6.0
Book value
161.7
Adj book value
161.5
Spreads (%)
Yield on advances
12.7
Cost of deposits
7.9
Net interest margins
2.7
Operating ratios (%)
Credit to deposit
70.2
Cost to income
38.4
CASA
18.9
Non-interest income/
total income
36.2
Return ratios (%)
RoE
24.8
RoA
1.5
Assets/Equity (x)
16.5
Asset quality ratios (%)
Gross NPA
0.2
Net NPA
0.0
Growth ratios (%)
Net interest income
37.3
Pre-provisioning profit 39.1
Profit after tax
33.1
Advances
23.7
Deposits
36.2
Valuation ratios (x)
P/E
21.9
P/BV
4.9
P/ABV
4.9
Capital adequacy (%)
CAR
18.3
Tier I
9.5

3,956 5,072
526

664

3,429 4,408
1,091

1,403

2,338 3,005

Balance sheet
Particulars

Key ratios

Rs cr

Rs cr
FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Liabilities
Networth

5,808

7,122

11,680

13,524

15,893

Deposits

66,956

74,192

91,176

Borrowings

20,922

21,314

26,220

29,477

35,815

5,419

6,388

7,094

5,799

6,882

Other liabilities
& provisions
Total liabilities

111,235 135,150

99,104 109,016 136,170 160,034 193,740

Assets
Cash & balances
with RBI
Balances with banks
& money at call

3,339

4,542

5,241

5,339

6,014

727

1,350

2,317

1,669

2,027

Investments

42,976

40,950

46,605

53,949

64,196

Advances

47,000

55,633

75,550

92,549 113,835

Fixed assets

230

293

319

367

422

Other assets

4,833

6,247

6,139

6,162

7,246

Total assets

99,104 109,016 136,170 160,034 193,740

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

44.9
8.0
197.2
196.5

48.0
9.0
279.4
272.5

56.0
10.1
323.5
316.0

71.9
12.9
380.2
371.3

12.7
8.0
2.8

12.2
7.8
3.0

12.0
7.7
3.0

12.0
7.6
3.1

75.0
39.4
22.0

82.9
41.3
23.1

83.2
41.8
25.0

84.2
39.8
27.3

38.8

37.0

37.8

37.3

25.0
1.6
16.1

21.3
1.6
13.0

18.6
1.6
11.8

20.4
1.7
12.0

0.3
0.0

0.8
0.4

0.7
0.3

0.6
0.3

22.4
25.5
24.4
18.4
10.8

28.4
20.9
24.0
35.8
22.9

21.2
21.7
16.6
22.5
22.0

25.0
28.2
28.5
23.0
21.5

17.7
4.0
4.1

16.6
2.8
2.9

14.2
2.5
2.5

11.1
2.1
2.1

14.4
9.8

14.6
11.4

16.3
10.9

15.5
10.2

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

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April 22, 2015

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stock update

Persistent Systems

Reco: Buy

Stock Update

In-line performance; Buy maintained with revised PT of Rs880


Key points

Company details
Price target:

Rs880

Market cap:

Rs5,744 cr

52 week high/low:

Rs961/444

NSE volume:
(no. of shares)

CMP: Rs718

1.1 lakh

BSE code:

533179

NSE code:

PERSISTENT

Sharekhan code:

PERSISTENT

Free float:
(no. of shares)

4.9 cr

Shareholding pattern

Price chart

In-line performance, net income beats estimate led by lower tax rate: For Q4FY2015,
Persistent Systems Ltd (PSL)s performance was in line on both revenues and margin fronts.
Led by lower tax rate and higher than expected other income, the net income was ahead
of estimates. The revenues in terms of dollar were up by 0.6% QoQ to $80 million. The IT
services revenues were up by 1.7% QoQ to $65.5 million (led by 0.7% volume and 1%
improvement in realisation), while the IP-led revenues were down by 4% QoQ. The EBITDA
margin remained stable QoQ at 20.2%. The companys other income for the quarter was
up by 13% QoQ to Rs13 crore and foreign exchange gains were at Rs5 crore against a profit
of Rs13 crore in Q3FY2015. The tax rate has declined to 20.6% as compared with 25.1% in
Q3FY2015, attributed to a tax break in the loss-making US subsidiary. The net income for
the quarter was up by 2.2% QoQ to Rs76 crore.
Enterprise story playing out well, concerns persist on ISV side: PSLs enterprise digital
transformation (EDT) story is playing out well and has already registered a few good
wins in the recent quarters. Also, the revenues from the enterprise side have gradually
increased from 19.7% in Q1FY2015 to 24% in Q4FY2015 (34.7% CAGR). The management
remains confident in delivering a strong growth on the enterprise side in FY2016. Whereas,
ISVs (57.8% of the revenues) continue to remain under pressure owing to change in
business preference in the clients accounts. PSLs revenues from top-clients were down
by 4.4% CAGR in the last four quarters. Overall, the management remains optimistic
about delivering a better growth in FY2016 as compared with FY2015, led by an
improvement in the overall deals funnel and traction in the enterprise side. Also,
acquisitions in the IP space will aid to the overall revenues trajectory.
Attractive risk-reward ratio, maintain buy with a revised price target of Rs880: We
have lowered our earnings estimates for FY2016 and FY2017 by 4.3% and 7.0% respectively,
attributed to a change in the revenues and margins estimates. We have also reset our
currency estimates to Rs62 and Rs61 for FY2016 and FY2017 respectively. Nevertheless,
given PSL being a pure play on the digital spend, strong balance sheet (cash of Rs816
crore at 46% of the balance sheet size) and good corporate governance still make it a
good investment bet for the long-term investors. In the last three months, the stock of
PSL has corrected around 21% which offers an attractive risk-reward ratio. We maintain
our Buy rating on the stock with a revised price target of Rs880.
Results

Rs cr

Particulars

Price performance
(%)
Absolute

1m

3m

6m 12m

-3.3 -22.9

8.8

36.7

Relative -1.3 -19.6


to Sensex

4.2

10.8

Revenues ($ mn)
Derived exch rate (Rs/$)
Net sales
Direct costs
SG&A
EBITDA
Depreciation & amortisation
EBIT
Forex gain/(loss)
Other income
PBT
Tax provision
PAT
Minority interest
Net profit
Equity capital (FV Rs10/-)
EPS (Rs)
Margin (%)
EBITDA
EBIT
NPM
Tax rate
Sharekhan

Q4FY15

Q4FY14

Q3FY15

YoY %

QoQ %

80.0
62.2
497.5
297.5
99.5
100.5
22.7
77.8
5.1
13.0
95.82
19.8
76.1
0.0
76.1
80.0
9.5

72.6
61.5
446.7
255.4
70.7
120.7
26.4
94.2
-8.7
6.8
92.3
25.1
67.2
0.0
67.2
80.0
8.4

79.5
62.2
494.6
295.9
99.2
99.5
24.6
74.9
13.0
11.5
99.4
24.9
74.5
0.0
74.5
80.0
9.3

10.2
1.1
11.4
16.5
40.7
-16.7
-14.0
-17.5
NA
92.5
3.8
-21.3
13.2

0.6
-0.1
0.6
0.5
0.3
1.0
-7.8
3.8
-61.1
13.2
-3.6
-20.6
2.1

13.2

2.1

13.2

2.1

20.2
15.6
15.3
20.6

27.0
21.1
15.0
27.2

20.1
15.1
15.1
25.1

April 22, 2015

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Valuations
Particulars
Net sales (Rs cr)

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

1,669.2

1,891.3

2,185.6

2,538.7

Net profit (Rs cr)

249.3

290.6

331.3

390.0

EBITDA margin (%)

25.8

20.7

20.9

21.8

EPS (Rs)

31.2

36.3

41.4

48.7

Y-o-Y change %

32.8%

16.6%

14.0%

17.7%

PER

23.1

19.8

17.4

14.8

EV/EBITDA

12.2

12.9

10.5

8.1

Price/BV

2.4

4.0

3.4

2.9

RoCE (%)

29.2

28.6

28.6

28.7

RoE (%)

22.3

21.8

21.1

21.1

The company had hedges worth $130 million at the


rate of Rs65.61.
The days sales outstanding (DSO) days decreased by
one day quarter on quarter (QoQ) at 64 days.
The company added 210 people sequentially on a net
basis during the quarter taking the total headcount to
8,506 employees. The companys technical workforce
increased by 197 people to 7,861 employees whereas
the sales and business development employees
increased by 16 people to 224 employees.
Attrition for the quarter was up to 15.5% as compared
with 14.7% in Q3FY2015. The utilisation ratio (blended)
increased by 40 basis points (BPS) to 74.7% for the quarter.

Other result highlights


The cash and cash equivalents for the company stood
at Rs816.5 crore as against Rs816.6 crore reported in
Q3FY2015.

The capital expenditure for FY2016 is expected to be


about Rs100 crore.

Operating metrics
Particulars

Q4FY15 Q4FY14 Q3FY15 YoY %

QoQ %

Remarks

Geography
North Americas (%)

85.4

85.4

84.7

$ mn

68.3

62.0

67.4

Europe (%)

6.8

6.1

7.1

$ mn

5.4

4.4

5.6

RoW (%)

7.8

8.5

8.2

$ mn

6.2

6.2

6.5

10.2

1.5

The business from Europe declined by 3.6% QoQ owing to


cross-currency headwinds.

22.8

-3.6

1.1

-4.3

NA

0.5

Industry verticals*
ISV (%)

57.8

57.9

$ mn

46.3

46.0

Enterprise (%)

24.1

23.1

$ mn

19.3

IP Led (%)

18.1

19.6

19.0

$ mn

14.5

14.2

15.1

Onsite (%)

26.2

21.4

25.1

$ mn

21.0

15.5

20.0

Offshore (%)

55.7

59.0

55.9

$ mn

44.6

42.9

44.5

The enterprise vertical grew by 5.0% QoQ. It is expected to


remain strong in FY2016.

NA

5.0

1.7

-4.1

34.9

5.1

18.4

Mix

This is the fifth consecutive quarter of a shift in the business


mix towards onsite delivery.

4.0

0.3

Cont...

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April 22, 2015

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Operating metrics
Particulars

Q4FY15 Q4FY14 Q3FY15 YoY %

QoQ %

Remarks

Clients contribution
Top clients (%)

16.5

21.1

17.5

$ mn

13.2

15.3

13.9

Top 5 clients (%)

34.1

39.4

35.0

$ mn

27.3

28.6

27.8

Top 10 clients (%)

43.2

48.5

44.2

$ mn

34.6

35.2

35.1

Other than Top 10 clients (%)

56.8

51.5

55.8

$ mn

45.5

37.4

44.4

Headcount

8506

7857

8296

Attrition (%)

15.5

13.4

14.7

Utilisation

74.7

69.2

74.3

64

63

65

DSO

-13.8

-5.1

The revenues from the top clients were down by 5% QoQ


owing to a change in business preference.

-4.6

-1.9

-1.9

-1.6

21.5

2.4

649

210

The company made net addition of 210 employees during


the quarter, taking the total headcount to 8,506 employees.

*Industry classification disclosure started from Q4FY2015.

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

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April 22, 2015

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confirmation of any transaction. Though disseminated to all customers who are due to receive the same, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. SHAREKHAN will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report.
The information contained herein is obtained from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable and SHAREKHAN has not independently verified the accuracy and completeness of the said data and hence it should not be relied upon as such.
While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, SHAREKHAN, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and employees (SHAREKHAN and affiliates) are under no obligation to update or keep the information
current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent SHAREKHAN and affiliates from doing so. This document is prepared for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment
decision. Recipients of this report should also be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient
of this document should make such investigations as he deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own
advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views. Affiliates of SHAREKHAN may have issued other
reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to
law, regulation or which would subject SHAREKHAN and affiliates to any registration or licencing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons
in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction. Either SHAREKHAN or its affiliates or its directors or employees/representatives/clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act
as principal or engage in transactions of purchase or sell of securities, from time to time or may be materially interested in any of the securities or related securities referred to in this report and they may have used the information set forth herein before
publication. SHAREKHAN may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned herein. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SHAREKHAN, any of its affiliates or any third party involved
in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The analyst certifies that all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies
and its or their securities and do not necessarily reflect those of SHAREKHAN. Further, no part of the analysts compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this document.

Sharekhan

April 22, 2015

Compliance Officer: Ms. Namita Amod Godbole; Tel: 022-6115000; e-mail: compliance@sharekhan.com Contact: myaccount@sharekhan.com

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