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Prior
Probabilities(2)
Conditional
Probabilities
(3)
A1
.8
.5
Joint
Probabilities
Col.(2 3)
(4)
.40
A2
.2
.1
.02
Total
1.00
P(B) .42
Posterior
Probabilities
Col. (4) P
(B) (5)
.4 .42 =
.95
.02 42 =
.05
Total = 1.00
From the 5th column of the above table, it is clear that the probability that the coin is
balanced is .95 or 95%, and that the coin is unbalanced is .05 or 5%.
Question-2. A college has been three faculties viz.,: Arts, Science and Commerce in which
40% of the students belong to Arts, 50% to Science, and 10% to Commerce. From the
result of 2003, it was observed that 50% of the Arts students, .60% of the science
students, and 20% of the commerce students passed in the examination. If a successful
students passed in the examination. If a successful student is noticed, what is the
probability that he was a student of Arts, Science or Commerce?
Solution:
Let
And
Prior
Probabilities
Conditional
Probabilities
(3)
Joint
Probabilities
Col. 2 3 (4)
(Arts) A1
.4
.5
.1
1.00
.5
.6
.2
-
.20
.30
.02
P(B) = .52
Total
Posterior
Probabilities
Col. 4 P (B)
(5)
.2 .52 = .385
.3 .52 = .577
02 .52 = .038
Total = 1.000
From the 5th columns of the above table, it comes out that the probability
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Alternatively:
Let the total number of students in the college be 3000;
Then, the number of Arts students = 40% of 3000 = 1200;
The number of Science students = 50% or 3000 = 1500;
The number of students passing
Arts = 50% of 1200 = 600;
Science = 60% of 1500 = 900;
Commerce = 20% of 300 = 60;
And therefore, the total number of students passing
= 600 + 900 + 60 = 1560
Thus, the probability that the successful student was
An Arts student or P(A1) =
600
1560
= 0385 or 38.5%
900
1560
= .577 or 57.77%
60
1560
= .038 or 3.8%
P(ME) = P M, or P F
Where, p = Probability of success.
M = Amount of money one is to receive in the event of a success.
F = Frequency of the event.
This type of probability is very much used in the games of chance, where efforts are made
to evaluate the expectation of the players in winning a prize.
Question-3. P and Q throw a coin for a stake of $30 to be won by him, who first flips a
head. If p is given the first chance, find their respective expectations.
Solutions
Here, the respective probabilities of success of P and Q will be determined first as under:
The probability of flipping a head with a balance coin =
1
2
Here, A can win the 1st, 3rd, 5th and the like chances, and B can win the 2nd, 4th, 6th and
1
1
the like chances. The probability of Ps success in the different chances is p(p) = +
2
2
1
1
2
=
1
2
+ .
[1 +
1
2
1 3
2
+ .]
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P(Q) =
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
+ =
1
4
1
2
{1+
:
1
4
1 2
2
; or 2 : 1 i.e.
1 3
+
2
2
3
and
. }
1
3
2
3
1
3
$30 = $20
$30 = $10
Note:
Here, the compound probability of As success in the 3rd trial has been calculated as under :
Prob. Of As failure in the 1st chance Prob. Bs failure in the 2nd chances Prob. Of As
1
1
1
failure in the 3rd chance =
2
2
2
Similarly, the compound probabilities of Bs success in the 2nd and 4th chances have been as
follows:
2nd chance:
Prob. Of As failure in the 1st chance Prob, of Bs success in the 2nd chance =
1
2
1
2
3rd chance:
Prob. Of As failure in the 1st chance Prob. Of Bs failure in the 2nd Chance Prob. Of As
1
1
1
1
failure in the 3rd chance Prob. Of Bs success in the 4th chance =
.
2
2
2
2
Question-4. In a horse race, a player earns $50,000, if his horse is sound, and $20,000, if
it is semi-sound. If the probability of the horse being sound is .75, find the expectation of
the player in the race.
Solution:
It is case of mathematical expectation which relates to two mutually exclusive events, i.e.
either the horse is sound, or the horse is semi-sound.
If the horse is sound.
P(A) = .75 $50,000 = $37,500
If the horse is semi-sound;
P(B) = .25 $20,000 = $5,000
P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) = $5,000
= $42,500
Hence, the expectation of the player in the race is $42500.
Question-5. A man throws 5 dice one after another. He will get $10, $20, $30, $40 and
$50 respectively if he throws 6 each time. He will cease to get anything, when he throws
any other number. Find the value of his expectation.
Solution
Let the probabilities of his success in the 5 trials be represented by p 1 , p2, p3, p4 and p5,
and the expectations by p(ME)1, p(ME)2 , p(ME)3, p(ME)4, and p(ME)5 respectively.
Since, the probability of getting a 6 with a balanced die is 1/6,
P1 = 1/6 = P(ME)1 = 1/6 $10 =
P2 =
P3 =
P4 =
1
6
1
6
1
6
1
6
And P5 =
6
6
1
6
= P(ME)2 =
1
6
36
1
216
20
36
$30 =
= P(ME)4 =
6
6
$20 =
= P(ME)3 =
6
6
10
1
6
1
6
30
216
1
1296
= P (ME)5 =
1
7776
$40 =
40
1296
$50 =
50
7776
10
6
20
36
30
216
40
1296
12960 +4320+1080+240+50
18650
50
7776
7776
7776
= $2.40 approx.