Significance of Attaining a Demographic Dividend in Nigeria

How a Young Population can make Development

Possible
Introduction
Despite the recent GDP rebasing, median incomes remain very low, with
almost 60% of the population living on $1 a day, according to a recent survey. Culture
and economic marginalization remain key factors in explaining the high rate of
population growth. The rate of population growth (excluding migration) correlates
with the incidence and distribution of poverty. While providing for such a large
population poses a significant economic challenge, the age structure can also be a
potential boon to growth. This demographic dividend occurs when there are many
more people of working age relative to those who are not, because they are either too
young or too old. In this paper, it is argued that Nigeria is poised to avail itself of such
a boon. Recent estimates show that it can be substantial. But the dividend will not
come automatically. To seize the opportunity, Nigeria must adopt policies that will
develop its workforce and ensure that it is productive. Equally important, the policies
must be consistent with the varying realities of Nigerias regions. \
The demographic dividend is the accelerated economic growth that may result
from a decline in a country's mortality and fertility and the subsequent change in the
age structure of the population. With fewer births each year, a country's young
dependent population grows smaller in relation to the working-age population. With
fewer people to support, a country has a window of opportunity for rapid economic
growth if the right social and economic policies developed and investments made.

This policy brief explains the connection between the demographic dividend and
investments in voluntary family planning; highlights Africa's particular challenge in
achieving a demographic dividend and the need for immediate action; and underscores
the investments in health, education, and gender equity, as well as subsequent
economic policies, that are needed to open and take advantage of this window of
opportunity. Finally, the brief prioritizes actions for decision makers to make the most
of the demographic dividend.
Nigerias Demographic Dividend
A countrys population level depends on its fertility and mortality rates. Most
developing countries experienced high population growth rates in the 1960s-1990s
due to dramatic declines in mortality, especially among infants, as public health
improved. Population growth began to stabilize when fertility rates also fell. The
population age structure began to look less like a pyramid, with many young children
and progressively fewer older cohorts. Instead, a youth bulge began to appear as the
number of infants declined while the youth began to age entering working age and
eventually older ages.
A country can reap a demographic dividend if the size of its working age
population increases while the number outside that range declines due to sustained
lower fertility (average number of children per woman). A workforce with fewer
dependents relative to the working age population has the potential to boost economic
growth. The East Asian economic tigers such as Hong Kong, South Korea,
Singapore and Taiwan may owe up to a quarter or a third of their economic growth
to this phenomenon (Bloom et al., 2000). Similarly, a significant portion of Irelands

growth can be attributed to the legalization of contraception (Bloom and Canning,

2003). Is such a demographic dividend possible for Nigeria? Recent work suggests
that it is and, with the right policies, that it can be substantial.
Until recently, despite an acceleration in the measured rate of GDP growth, real
GDP growth per capita had languished for many decades. Real GDP per capita in
2006 was virtually what it was 25 years earlier. Part of the drag on Nigerias economy
has been its demographic structure with higher dependency. Nigerias fertility rate,
even though lower than in previous years, is higher than that of sub- Saharan Africa as
a whole and more than twice the world average. The high fertility rate combined with
the welcome decline in mortality has resulted in what demographers and economists
call a high dependency rate (the inverse of the support ratio). The large number of
young children who are too young to work, along with older people above 65, have to
be provided and cared for, resulting in a smaller share of working-age people
compared to in other countries.
After 2003, the ratio increased and did so steeply, as birth rates declined and
the share of the working-age population rose. Assuming a continued reduction in
fertility, the share of working-age people should rise significantly by 2050. The ratio
of the working-age to non-working-age population will rise to about 2 by 2050. If
employed productively, the working-age group can cause Nigeria to reap a
demographic dividend.
Decline in Fertility Is Essential for Demographic Dividend: Fertility must decline
substantially for countries to attain the demographic dividend

Historically, a transition to smaller families has both accompanied and

contributed to improved child survival. But in many of the world's least developed
countries, while child survival has improved, declines in fertility have been very slow,
and a demographic transition has yet to occur. Millions of women are unable to
choose the number, timing, and spacing of their children, and consequently have more
children than they desire. As a result, the populations of these countries are growing
very quicklyas much as 3 percent or more per year. Such a high growth rate could
double the number of people in these countries in just 23 years.
In countries where couples have many children, populations are growing
rapidly and children and adolescents make up a disproportionately large part of the
population. In the world's least developed countries, more than 40 percent of the
population is under age 15 and depends on financial support from working-age adults
(defined as ages 15 to 64). Another 90 million people between ages 15 and 19 are on
their way to becoming financially independent as they enter adulthood. Large numbers
of young people can represent great economic potential, but only if families and
governments can adequately invest in their health and education and stimulate new
economic opportunities for them. However, as long as the average number of children
per woman (total fertility rate) and population growth remain high and children and
adolescents greatly outnumber working-age adults, families and governments will not
have the resources needed to invest adequately in each child.
To achieve a demographic transition, countries must focus on providing women
with voluntary family planning information and services. One in four women in
developing countries wants to avoid becoming pregnant or delay or space their births

but is not using a modern family planning method. These women account for almost
80 percent of unintended pregnancies. When women can choose when and how often
to become pregnant, they are more likely to have fewer children and are better able to
achieve their desired family size.
How a young population can make development possible
Children are a great source of joy to their parents and an asset for each society.
Having too many children, however, can cause serious worries for families and entire
countries. This applies especially to less developed countries, mainly in South Asia
and sub-Saharan Africa. Wherever the number of children grows faster than the
possibility to provide the younger generation with the necessary schools, health
institutions or food, and the ability to give young people jobs is lacking, the situation
of the entire country deteriorates.
These countries find themselves in a vicious circle of poverty, high infant
mortality and high fertility rates. They cannot easily escape this circle because where
many young people live today the population will continue to grow: in the coming
years, most young people will reach the age in which they start to have families. In
countries like Niger or Uganda, half the population is under the age of 15.
Demographic development is like a slow moving barge because based on todays age
structure, its path is predetermined for decades.
A decisive factor for this transition is education especially for women.
Equally important is health care. Where many children die at a young age, it is
understandable that people have many children simply to protect themselves against
the worst-case scenario. Health care includes the availability of information and

family planning methods. Only with this information, can young people fulfill their
responsibility to plan their families.
Approximately 215 million women worldwide who want to avoid pregnancy
lack access to modern contraceptives. Development opportunities for families and
entire societies grow with a decline in birth rates. They can then invest more, and in an
improved manner, in the young people. In turn, succeeding generations will profit,
thus setting in motion a chain reaction of lowered birth rates, continuously improving
levels of education and increasing productivity.

References
1.

Carl Haub and Toshiko Kaneda, 2012 World Population Data Sheet
(Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau, 2012).

2.

Jacqueline E. Darroch, Gilda Sedgh, and Haley Ball, Contraceptive

Technologies: Responding to Women's Needs (New York: Guttmacher Institute,
2011).

3.

World Health Organization and UNICEF, Building a Future for Women and
Children: The 2012 Report (Geneva: World Health Organization, 2012).