2.

Research background
2.1 Indonesian climate: Past and projections
This section explains historical climate and future climate in Indonesia and West
Nusa Tenggara such as historical and projections of precipitation and temperature. This
section also explains evidence that climate change has occurred in Indonesia and West Nusa
Tenggara. If the temperature or rainfall change between the baseline and the recent period is
statistically different, this means that climate change has occurred. Otherwise, climate
change does not exist.
Statistics shows that Indonesia has experienced increasing temperature but
insignificant rainfall change since the mid-20th century. The annual mean of Indonesian
rainfall1 in the period 1950-1979 was about 2832296 mm/year and in the current period
1980-2009 was about 2786272 mm/year. The difference of the annual mean rainfall
between the periods is statistically insignificant2. Likewise, the Indonesian mean
temperature during 1950-1979 was about 25.60.17oC, while the mean temperature in the
period 1980-2009 was about 26 0.160C. Thus, Indonesia has experienced climate change
as temperature change is statistically significant between the periof 1950-1979 and the
period 1980-2009.
In case of the projection of temperature, figure 1 shows that Indonesia is projected
to experience higher temperatures in future. According to IPCC (2013), Indonesia is
projected to experience an increase of mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.2oC by 2035
and in the range of 0.8-2.7 oC by 2100. Temperature in wet seasons (December-February)
and dry seasons (June-August) is projected to experience a similar increase.

Data for Indonesian rainfall and temperature is from KNMI climate centre ( http://climexp.knmi.nl, CRU
reanalysis)
2
All statistical tests to test temperature and rainfall change are based on t-test (the significance level is 0.05).
Furthermore, statistical tests for temperature and rainfall variability are based Levenes tests (the significance level is
0.05)

Figure 1. Median projected temperature change in December-February (top) and June-August (bottom) relative to the
period 1986-2005 for 3RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario 4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5
model projections. From left to right is the period 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 (IPCC, 2013).

As shown in figure 2, Indonesia is projected to experience mixed and relatively

insignificant rainfall change (IPCC, 2013). Total Indonesian rainfall is projected to change
between -1% and 13% by 2046 and between -2 % and 18% by 2100. The average projected
decrease of rainfall in southern Indonesia (including West Nusa Tenggara) is about -5% by
21004. However, the magnitude of projected changes is not expected to exceed that of
natural decadal variability5 over much of Indonesia.

RCP 4.5 is a climate scenario with a stable radiative forcing at 4.5 Watts/m 2 in the year 2100. RCP=Representative
Concentration Pathways.
4
Southern Indonesia is influenced by Australian Maritime Monsoon that leads to a lower rainfall while northern Indonesia
is influenced by East Asian and Indian Monsoon that lead to a higher precipitation (IPCC, 2013).
5
Decadal variability is climate variability for the period for decades

Figure 2. Median projected rainfall change in October-March (top) and April-September (bottom) relative to the
period 1986-2005 for scenario RCP 4.5 based on an ensemble of CMIP5 model projections. From left to right is the
period 2016-2035, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. The hatched area denotes the area where the 20-year mean differences
of the percentiles are less than the standard deviation of model-estimated present-day natural variability of 20-year
mean differences (IPCC, 2013).