AKD Commodities

October 9, 2013
Commodity
Gold
Silver
Oil

Technical View
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral

Global Development:

Asian stocks fell on concern the impasse over the U.S. debt limit may lead to a default and after
the International Monetary Fund cut its global outlook. Asia stocks pared losses and the yen weakened after the White House said it will nominate Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve, offsetting concerns over deadlocked debt talks in Washington. U.S. index futures gained and Treasury bill
rates fell. The announcement comes as President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers continue to tussle over reopening the government and raising the debt ceiling, which had pushed
Treasury bill rates to the highest since October 2008.

Among Yellens tasks, if confirmed, will be to execute the unwinding of the Feds record monetary
stimulus. Bernanke has said the central bank wont end monthly bond purchases until the labor
market shows sign of substantial improvement. Fed has also announced plans to hold short-term
interest rates near zero until the unemployment rate reaches at least 6.5 percent.

The Standard & Poors 500 Index slumped 1.2 percent yesterday after President Barack Obama
said the U.S. economy risks a very deep recession should Congress not raise the $16.7 trillion
borrowing limit. U.S. House Speaker John Boehner insisted on immediate negotiations with Barack
Obama, rejecting the presidents stance that hell talk only after the partial government shutdown
ends and the risk of default is pushed back.

Oil Fluctuates as U.S. Lawmakers Seek to Raise Debt Limit and higher Crude oil inventories expected

West Texas Intermediate crude swung between gains and losses as U.S. lawmakers took steps
toward raising the governments debt limit, reducing the likelihood of a default that slows economic growth and saps fuel demand. U.S. is the worlds largest oil user, accounting for 21 percent
of global consumption last year, according to BP Plcs Statistical Review of World Energy. U.S. crude
inventories climbed 2.8 million barrels last week, the API said. An EIA report today may show supplies rose by 1.6 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg survey.

S&P GSCI Index

0.5%
0.4%

640.42

928.77

566.80

0.4%
0.3%

1,095.85

0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%

0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%

771.19

-0.1%
S&P GSCI
Index

Brent
Crude
Index

Crude Oil Gold Index Silver

Index
Index

Source: Bloomberg

Dollar Index
84

82

80

Event Calendar
Time PST
Jul-13

Sep-13

May-13

Jan-13

Mar-13

Nov-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

Mar-12

78

Source: Bloomberg

TRJ-CRB Index

Country

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

1:30pm

GBP

Ma nufa cturi ng Producti on m/m

0.30%

0.20%

3:00pm

EUR

Ge rma n Indus tri a l Producti on m/m

1.10%

-1.70%

7:00pm

USD

FOMC Me mbe r Eva ns Spe a ks

7:30pm

USD

Crude Oi l Inve ntori e s

0.9M

5.5M

10:01pm

USD

10-y Bond Aucti on

11:00pm

USD

FOMC Me e ti ng Mi nute s

2.95|2.9
Source: Forex Factory

335

Major Currencies
325
315
305
295
285
275

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Mar-13

Jan-13

Nov-12

Sep-12

Jul-12

May-12

Jan-12

Mar-12

265

CYTD
Chg%

Jun End-12

Dec
End-11

0.124

0.01%

81.627

80.178

0.480

26.59%

79.790

76.910

1.357

-0.003

4.51%

1.267

1.296

1.605

1.608

-0.004

3.23%

1.571

1.554

AUD/USD

0.944

0.942

0.001

-7.54%

1.024

1.021

NZD/USD

0.828

0.829

0.000

6.59%

0.801

0.777

CHF/USD

0.908

0.904

0.004

-3.23%

0.949

0.938

CAD/USD

1.038

1.037

0.001

1.59%

1.017

1.021

USD/KRW

1,077

1,074

3.310

-6.54%

1,145

1,152

CNY/USD

6.120

6.122

-0.001

-2.78%

6.354

6.295

SPOT

Current

Previous

Chg +/-

Dollar Index

80.184

80.060

USD/JPY

97.360

96.880

EUR/USD

1.355

GBP/USD

Source: Bloomberg ( PST 11:00 AM)

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd.

info@akdcommodities.com
+92-21-35303032

Copyright2012 AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided in this document is
not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or
use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited or its affiliates to
any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in
this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited or its affiliates to buy or sell any
commodities/FX or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Limited does not warrant the
accuracy of the information provided herein.

AKD Commodities
October 9, 2013

Technical Analysis

Gold - XAU

World Gold Reserves

US$bn

MT

12,000

1380
1360
1340
1320
1300
1280
1260
1240
1220
1200
1180

10,000

8,000
6,000
4,000

2,000

Daily Chart

Aug-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13

Market Flow: Gold (spot) yesterday settled 0.29% down to close at 1319.29/ounce
from an intra-high of US$1329.96/ounce before setting a low of US$1315.86/ounce.

Wor ldGold Reser ves

SPDRHolding

( RHS)

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close
High
Low
Chg (%)
14D RSI
50-DMA
100-DMA
200-DMA

1,319.29
1,329.96
1,315.86
-0.29
45.94
1,346.93
1,336.14
1,452.57

Intraday Support Levels

S1
S2
S3

1,308.00
1,297.00
1,280.00

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1
R2
R3

1,325.00
1,342.00
1,352.00

Technical View

Last quoted at US$1317

XAU failed to hold above 1325 yesterday keeping the weakening theme intact.
Continue to see risk for weakness towards 1252 1247. Would go bullish
above 1342.

Buy above 1342 / Sell below 1308

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages
(5,10,15 MAs)
MACD
STS

Negative
Negative
Positive

Qasim Anwar
Technical Analyst

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd.

info@akdcommodities.com
+92-21-35303032

AKD Commodities
October 9, 2013

Technical Analysis

Silver - XAG

Gold/Silver Ratio

70

Market Flow: Silver (spot) yesterday closed near its intra-high of US$22.49/ounce
after setting a low of US$22.13/ounce. Silver settled the day 0.30% down at
US$22.31/ounce.

65
60

Daily Chart

55

50

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

45

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close
High
Low
Chg (%)
14D RSI
50-DMA
100-DMA
200-DMA

22.31
22.49
22.13
-0.30
51.84
22.25
21.49
24.76

Intraday Support Levels

S1
S2
S3

21.94
21.56
21.33

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1
R2
R3

22.31
22.64
22.91

Technical View

Last quoted at US$22.24

XAGs recovery faced resistance around 22.54 yesterday. Weakness through

21.94 would instill weakness towards 21.56 and 21.33. Need a break above
22.54 for strength towards 22.91 and 23.14.

Buy above 21.94 / Sell below 21.56.

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages
(5,10,15 MAs)
MACD
STS

Positive
Positive
Positive

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd.

info@akdcommodities.com
+92-21-35303032

AKD Commodities
October 9, 2013

Technical Analysis

Oil - WTI

Brent vs. WTI Oil Spread (US$/bbl)

30

Market Flow: Crude futures (December 2012) yesterday made an the intra-day low
of 102.85/bbl and made an intraday high of US$104.08/bbl and settled the day
0.45% up at US$103.49/bbl on session close.

25
20

15

Daily Chart

10

Aug

Mar

Jun-

Jan-

Oct-

Aug

Jun-

Jan-

Mar

Source: Bloomberg

Closing Snapshot
Close
High
Low
Chg (%)
14D RSI
50-DMA
100-DMA
200-DMA

103.49
104.08
102.85
0.45
45.04
105.93
102.53
98.11

Intraday Support Levels

S1
S2
S3

103.25
101.22
97.94

Intraday Resistance Levels

R1
R2
R3

104.69
106.52
108.55

Technical View

Last quoted at US$103.47

Hold a neutral stance within 103.25 104.89. Break above 104.89 would allow
strength towards 106.52. Failure to hold 101.22 101.05 would induce pressure towards 97.94.

Buy above 103.25 / Sell below 101.22.

Daily Momentum Data

Minor Averages
(5,10,15 MAs)
MACD
STS

Negative
Negative
Negative

AKD Commodities (Pvt.) Ltd.

info@akdcommodities.com
+92-21-35303032