Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Forecast Report
4Q 2013
Jakarta
4th
Quarter
| Office
2014
Accelerating success.
Contents
Office Sector
Apartment Sector
13
23
Retail Sector
23
32
Highlight
Office Sector
By Ferry Salanto
Associate Director | Research
Ferry.Salanto@colliers.com
Apartment Sector
Only 51% or 10,701 units of the previously projected supply for
the whole 2014 of 20,899 units came onto the market in 2014. As
a result, the remaining 49% (or 10,188 units) will be completed
this year for a total potential supply in 2015 of 38,562 units
representing 25% of the total existing supply. Take-up rates of
projects under development dropped moderately this year to
72.1%.
Retail Sector
There are a limited number of new retail properties completed in
2014 in DKI Jakarta bringing cumulative supply to 4.44 million sq
m for a 3.2% increase YoY. The YoY occupancy was down
modestly and was recorded at 86.3% at end of 2014 because the
physical occupancy in contrast with the leased spaces of newly
operating shopping center was still relatively low. Given this
situation, the asking base rent only grew by 7.3% YoY to
IDR510,562/sq m/month.
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OFFICE SECTOR
Leased Office
Supply
CBD Office Cumulative Supply
8,000,000
7,000,000
sq m
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
Existing Supply
2019F
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Annual Supply
Gatot Subroto
Mega Kuningan
Rasuna Said
Sudirman
Thamrin
1,000,000
Existing 2014
2,000,000
Future Supply
3,000,000
4,000,000
sq m
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Existing Supply
2019F
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014
2013
2012
Annual Supply
The Outside CBD showed more additional supply than the CBD
during 2014. By contributing 155,470 sq m and bringing the
cumulative supply to 2.44 million sq m in 2014, the additional
supply in the Outside CBD was above 100,000 sq m per year since
2010. It is similar to the CBD in that future supply in the Outside
CBD will see significant growth in 2015 - 2018. It is expected that
the additional supply in the Outside CBD will grow at 13.6% per
year during 2015 - 2018.
sq m
2,500,000
2011
3,000,000
2010
sq m
Based on region, Sudirman and Rasuna Said are the most active
corridors to contribute additional supply, at least during 2012 2014. Seventeen office buildings have been operating since 2012
and brought 465,356 sq m of additional supply; eight of these
are located in Sudirman and brought 212,316 sq m of additional
supply; 45.8% of the cumulative supply as of 2014 is located in
Sudirman Thoroughfare.
Based on area, West and South Jakarta will lead as the main
contributors of future supply in the Outside CBD during 2015 2018. As of 2014, the total supply in West Jakarta was 449,206 sq
m, and in South Jakarta was 1.16 million sq m.
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2015F
In Planning
2016F
2017F
For Sale
For Lease
2018F
The toll road (the last section of the Jakarta Outer Ring Road or
JORR) that connects the southern and western parts of Jakarta
gives West Jakarta the potential to grow, especially areas near
the toll road. Currently, Ciputra Group has started a big project
called Ciputra International. Taking advantage of the toll road,
this well-known group will develop a mixed-use project that
provides an office park and residences (apartments and hotel).
The other growing areas in West Jakarta are Puri and Kebun
Jeruk. At least three office buildings are being developed in those
areas.
South Jakarta, again, continues to contribute large supply in
the Outside CBD. An additional 750,979 sq m of new supply
is expected in the market by 2018. TB Simatupang will be the
main generator by contributing almost 68% of the future supply.
Remaining spaces will be scattered around Kebayoran Baru,
Pasar Minggu and Pancoran Districts.
West Jakarta
East Jakarta
North Jakarta
South Jakarta
Central Jakarta
500,000
sq m
Future Supply
400,000
300,000
Existing Supply
2019F
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Annual Supply
2019F
2018F
600,000
2017F
2016F
900,000
2015F
100,000
2014
1,200,000
2013
200,000
2012
1,500,000
2011
sq m
300,000
2010
sq m
TB Simatupang
in TB Simatupang
250,000
200,000
200,000
150,000
150,000
sq m
sq m
250,000
100,000
100,000
50,000
50,000
0
2015F
In Planning
2016F
2017F
For Sale
For Lease
2018F
2015F
In Planning
2016F
2017F
For Sale
For Lease
2018F
location
SGA
Marketing scheme
status development
CBD
2015
Rasuna Said
31,438
2015
Sinarmas MSIG
Sudirman
Under Construction
2015
Mega Kuningan
45,000
For Lease
Under Construction
2015
Sudirman
Under Construction
2015
Cemindo Tower
Rasuna Said
60,995
For Lease
Under Construction
2015
Sudirman
Under Construction
2015
Gatot Subroto
65,000
For Lease
Under Construction
2015
Satrio
24,600
For Lease
Under Construction
2015
Mega Kuningan
50,000
For Lease
Under Construction
2015
Wisma Mulia 2
Gatot Subroto
65,000
For Lease
Under Construction
2016
Convergence
Rasuna Said
36,367
Under Construction
2016
Sudirman
50,000
For Lease
Under Construction
2016
Menara Pertiwi
Mega Kuningan
41,456
For Sale
Under Construction
2016
Mangkuluhur Tower
Gatot Subroto
Under Construction
2016
Gatot Subroto
2016
Menara Palma 2
Rasuna Said
2016
Centennial Tower
Gatot Subroto
2016
Satrio
2016
Satrio Tower
2016
The Tower
138,500
90,511
For Sale
Under Construction
For Lease
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Satrio
31,604
For Lease
Under Construction
Gatot Subroto
56,492
For Sale
Under Construction
2016
Thamrin
16,500
For Sale
Under Construction
2016
Gatot Subroto
Under Construction
continued
location
SGA
Marketing scheme
status development
continuation
2017
Sudirman
For Sale
Under Construction
2017
Rasuna Said
Under Construction
2017
Sudirman
Under Construction
139,000
For Sale
Under Construction
For Lease
In Planning
2017
Sudirman
2017
Gayanti City
Gatot Subroto
71,545
25,000
2017
Mega Kuningan
Under Construction
2017
Mega Kuningan
Under Construction
2018
Sudirman
52,000
In Planning
2018
Rasuna Said
2018
Mangkuluhur Tower II
Gatot Subroto
For Sale
Under Construction
In Planning
Under Construction
2018
Sudirman
39,204
2018
Sudirman
For Lease
Under Construction
2018
Icon Tower
Sudirman
Under Construction
2018
Satrio
Under Construction
2018
Astra Tower
Sudirman
In Planning
97,500
Under Construction
2018
Thamrin Nine
Thamrin
2018
Chitaland
Gatot Subroto
For Lease
2019
The Hundred
Mega Kuningan
35,000
For Lease
2019
Sudirman
96,000
For Lease
2019
Mega Kuningan
Under Construction
In Planning
In Planning
Under Construction
2019
Rasuna Said
In Planning
2019
Sudirman
34,000
For Lease
In Planning
2019
Sudirman
43,000
For Sale
In Planning
2019
Sudirman
118,000
For Lease
In Planning
2019
Sudirman
In Planning
2019
Redevelopment eX
Thamrin
150,000
For Lease
In Planning
2019
Pertamina Tower
Rasuna Said
In Planning
Menara Sentraya
Blok M
52,072
For Sale
Under Construction
2015
Puri Indah
19,500
For Sale
Under Construction
2015
The Suites
13,200
For Sale
Under Construction
2015
MNC Tower II
Kebon Sirih
Under Construction
2015
Soho Capital
Slipi
36,000
Under Construction
For Sale
2015
Altira
Sunter
2015
Maxima Tower
Kelapa Gading
8,000
For Lease
Under Construction
2015
Mampang
4,200
For Lease
Under Construction
2016
Puri Indah
38,500
2016
Gallery West
Kebun Jeruk
For Sale
Under Construction
In Planning
Under Construction
2016
Sky 18 Tower
Pasar Minggu
Under Construction
2016
Soho Pancoran
Pancoran
Under Construction
2016
Kebon Sirih
Under Construction
2016
Cempaka Putih
In Planning
2016
One Tower
Kemayoran
21,400
For Sale
In Planning
2016
Sunter
16,000
For Lease
In Planning
2016
Tamansari Parama
Wahid Hasyim
10,800
For Sale
In Planning
continued
projected
completion
location
SGA
Marketing scheme
status development
continuation
oUTSIDE CBD EXCLUDING TB SIMATUPANG
2016
Sunter
16,000
For Lease
2016
Tamansari Parama
Wahid Hasyim
In Planning
2017
L'Office
Pasar Minggu
41,597
Under Construction
2017
Kemayoran
For Sale
In Planning
In Planning
2017
Kemayoran
In Planning
2017
Puri
15,000
For Lease
In Planning
2017
Puri
In Planning
2017
Puri
In Planning
2018
Casablanca
In Planning
2018
Puri
15,000
For Lease
In Planning
2018
Puri
15,000
For Lease
In Planning
2018
Puri
15,000
For Lease
In Planning
2018
Summarecon Tower
Slipi
In Planning
TB SIMATUPANG
2015
Graha MRA
13,000
For Lease
Under Construction
2015
Plaza Oleos
39,778
Under Construction
2015
Under Construction
2015
AD Premier
18,900
For Lease
Under Construction
2015
Metropolitan Tower
44,000
Under Construction
2015
40,778
For Sale
Under Construction
2015
40,778
For Lease
Under Construction
2016
40,778
For Lease
Under Construction
2016
Zuria
6,584
For Lease
Under Construction
2016
Cibis Tower
60,800
For Lease
Under Construction
2017
30,839
For Lease
Under Construction
2017
The Sima
Under Construction
2017
39,375
In Planning
2017
Arkadia Tower G
In Planning
CBD
CBD
2013
96.5%
YoY
2014
95.7%
QoQ
3Q 2014
95.4%
sq m
2017F
5,000,000
100%
4,500,000
90%
4,000,000
80%
3,500,000
70%
3,000,000
60%
2,500,000
50%
2,000,000
40%
1,500,000
30%
1,000,000
20%
500,000
10%
0%
2010
2011
Space Absorbed
2012
2013
Vacant Space
2014
Occupancy
2016F
2015F
150,000
300,000
450,000
Space Absorbed
600,000
Vacant Space
750,000
sq m
98%
Outside CBD
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
84%
82%
80%
2010
Premium
2011
2012
Grade A
2013
Grade B
2014
YoY, some office buildings in the Outside CBD still had vacant
space of around 1,000 - 2,300 sq m. Most of them are old office
buildings. Newly operating office buildings have contributed
to maintaining healthy occupancy together with some existing
office buildings that have recorded new absorption of around
1,000 - 2,000 sq m during 2014.
Grade C
100%
90%
2,000,000
80%
70%
60%
sq m
1,500,000
Similar to the CBD, the Outside CBD will face large supply,
which will affect the projected occupancy in 2015 - 2018. As of
4Q 2014, the commitment to occupancy at future office buildings
in 2015 is 23.9%. By remaining a year ahead and providing good
office buildings, it is expected that the occupancy will continue
increasing.
50%
1,000,000
40%
2018F
30%
500,000
20%
10%
2017F
0%
2010
2011
Space Absorbed
2012
2013
Vacant Space
2014
Occupancy
2016F
2015F
100%
50,000
98%
100,000
Space Absorbed
96%
Vacant Space
sq m
94%
92%
TB Simatupang
90%
88%
86%
84%
2018F
82%
80%
2010
2011
2012
Central Jakarta
South Jakarta
East Jakarta
West Jakarta
2013
2014
North Jakarta
2017F
2016F
2015F
50,000
100,000
Space Absorbed
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Vacant Space
sq m
IDR 250,000
2018F
IDR 200,000
2017F
IDR 150,000
IDR 100,000
2016F
IDR 50,000
2015F
IDR 0
2010
0
50,000
100,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
Space Absorbed
Space Unabsorbed
sq m
in US Dollar
USD 60
USD 55
USD 50
USD 45
USD 40
USD 35
USD 30
USD 25
USD 20
USD 15
USD 10
USD 5
USD 0
2010
2011
2012
All Class
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
2013
Premium
2014
in Rupiah
IDR 600,000
IDR 550,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 450,000
IDR 400,000
in Rupiah
IDR 350,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 250,000
IDR 180,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 160,000
IDR 150,000
IDR 140,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 120,000
IDR 50,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 0
Grade A
Grade B
Grade C
IDR 80,000
IDR 60,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 20,000
in US Dollar
IDR 0
USD 75.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
USD 70.00
Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang
USD 65.00
USD 60.00
TB Simatupang
USD 55.00
USD 50.00
in US Dollar
USD 45.00
USD 40.00
USD 30.00
USD 35.00
USD 30.00
USD 27.00
USD 25.00
USD 24.00
USD 20.00
USD 21.00
USD 15.00
USD 10.00
USD 18.00
USD 5.00
USD 15.00
USD 0.00
Premium
Grade A
Grade B
Grade C
Outside CBD
Since 2012, the average asking base rent in TB Simatupang was
higher than other areas in the Outside CBD. However, based on
available spaces, newly operating office buildings have closed
the gap between base rent in TB Simatupang and other areas. As
of 2014, the average base rent in TB Simatupang was IDR163,068/
sq m/month, and IDR155,402/sq m/month in the other areas.
Based on available spaces, in addition to South Jakarta, which
recorded an increase in rent by 21.3% YoY, the average asking
base rent in West Jakarta rose most significantly by 43.1% YoY.
USD 12.00
USD 9.00
USD 6.00
USD 3.00
USD 0.00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
TB Simatupang
Service Charge
Service charges in the CBD range between IDR20,000 and
120,000/sq m/month as of 2014. However, there are two types
of tenants who have to pay their service charges, especially for
electricity, i.e. electricy tariff is already included in the service
charge costs and electricity tariff is charged using a separate
meter. As of 2014, around 30% of all office buildings in the CBD
charged below IDR70,000/sq m/month because they were
using a separate meter for electricity. Those office buildings
recorded an average service charge of IDR48,851/sq m/month.
About 51% are office buildings with service charges between
IDR70,000 and 120,000/sq m/month already include electricity.
These office buildings recorded an average service charge of
IDR88,910/sq m/month.
In the Outside CBD, the average service charge including
electricity cost was IDR76,628/sq m/month as of 2014. These
are office buildings located in the TB Simatupang Thoroughfare.
Service charges of office buildings using a separate meter in the
Outside CBD were IDR49,554/sq m/month.
Strata-title Office
CBD
Again, with no new office buildings for sale is in operation in 2014,
the total supply of strata-title offices, as of 2014, was 901,169 sq m,
which represents 18.9% of the total supply in the CBD. However,
it is expected that in 2015 - 2018, the future supply of offices for
sale (strata-title offices) will increase significantly in the CBD.
In addition to Gran Rubina, Sahid Sudirman seemingly will be
ready to begin operations in 2015. Based on space, 688,360 sq m
of the future total supply of offices for sale will be on the market
during 2016 - 2017.
With a limited supply of offices for sale since last year, the takeup rate was steady at 99% during 2013 - 2014 and is projected to
remain the same in 2015. This is due to two future office buildings
for sale in 2015 that have achieved 86% committed take-up rates
as of 2014. In addition to 2015, future offices for sale in 2016 2017 have also achieved high commitments to occupancy.
Limited vacant space also caused the asking prices to continue
soaring. As of 2014, the average price for offices charging in
rupiah was IDR52.7 million/sq m, and USD4,260/sq m for those
charging in US dollars.
2017F
IDR 0
IDR 50,000
100,000
200,000
Space Absorbed
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
300,000
Vacant Space
400,000
sq m
Outside CBD
During 2014, the Outside CBD area provided more strata-title
offices for sale than the CBD. Three office buildings for sale
were in operation in 2014, namely Green Kosmo Mansion, The
Manhattan Square and GP Plaza. GP Plaza is the latest office
building that began operation since 2014 and is located in Slipi,
West Jakarta. This office building provides small office spaces for
sale, which are integrated into an apartment development.
With the influx of new additional strata-title office buildings, the
take-up rate of offices for sale in the Outside CBD remained high
and was 93.6% in 2014. It is expected that a large future supply will
come in 2015 - 2016 in the Outside CBD and will have an effect
on the projected take-up rate. However, by achieving 74 and 64%
of pre-committed absorption in 2014 and 2015, respectively, the
projected take-up rate is expected to continue to rise in 2015.
TB Simatupang has become the greatest contributor of demand
for strata-title offices in the Outside CBD. As of 2014, almost 70%
of 161,377 sq m of total future offices for sale in TB Simatupang in
2014 - 2015 has been absorbed.
IDR 60,000,000
IDR 50,000,000
IDR 40,000,000
IDR 30,000,000
IDR 20,000,000
IDR 10,000,000
IDR 0
2010
CBD
2011
2012
2013
2014
TB Simatupang
Concluding Thoughts
The first semester of 2015 will be a crucial period for predicting
the atmosphere and performance of the office market in 2015.
Most of the total future office supply in 2015 is expected to begin
operation in the second semester of 2015, therefore the office
market should avoid any obstacles in the first semester, which
will generally be highlighted by sound space absorption, and
will help reduce the large amount of vacant space that will be
available in 2015. Such ideal conditions will most likely motivate
landlords to seize the occasion to increase rents.
2017F
2016F
2015F
Vacant Space
Apartment Sector
Apartment for Strata-title
Supply
Entering the last quarter of 2014, the Jakarta apartment market
remained upbeat, evidenced by the number of units launched
this quarter that outstripped the number of units launched
in the last three consecutive quarters. A large number of
developers generally had a positive perception of apartment
market performance during the post-election period. They
continued to introduce new projects targeting various market
segments. Between October and December, eight new stratatitle apartment projects were introduced in Jakarta, bringing a
total of 4,454 units to the market. The volume of newly launched/
introduced apartments almost tripled from 1,319 in 3Q 2014
to 4,454 units this quarter. Some of these were the extensions
(additional towers) of operating projects such as Sentra Timur
Residence (Tower Brown) and Ciputra International Puri Indah
(Tower Barcelona). The other six are brand new developments
like Grand Dhika Mansion Pejaten (Sector I), 45 Antasari, Selatan
8 (Tower Sultan), Sahid Garden Residence, Arzuria Apartments
and Jaya Ancol Seafront (Tower Oceana).
units
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1Q
2013
2Q
2013
3Q
2013
4Q
2013
1Q
2014
2Q
2014
3Q
2014
4Q
2014
region
asking price
(idr/sq m)
YOP
location
Developer
No. of Units
2015
South Jakarta
27 million
2017
Kebayoran Lama
South Jakarta
17 million
44
336
2017
Pulo Gebang
East Jakarta
11 million
Bakrieland Development
45 Antasari (2 towers)
2018
Antasari
South Jakarta
38 million
Cowwel Development
605
2018
Ciracas
East Jakarta
15 million
Sahid Group
Arzuria Apartments
2018
Jl. Tendean
South Jakarta
27 million
Tolaram Group
210
2018
Ancol
North Jakarta
17 million
Jaya Ancol
524
2018
Puri Indah
West Jakarta
27 million
Ciputra
335
1,924
476
location
region
Developer
No. of Units
Central Jakarta
128
Central Jakarta
520
East Jakarta
Bakriland Development
420
Tifolia Apartment
North Jakarta
500
Gading Greenhill
North Jakarta
Gading Selaras
700
Jl. Fatmawati
South Jakarta
860
South Jakarta
Group Kalibata
218
South Jakarta
Gapura Prima
40
West Jakarta
420
Total
3,806
About 37% or 3,938 units of the total supply in 2014 were still
dominated by apartment projects located in South Jakarta,
followed by Central Jakarta with 27% or 2,940 units. Various
classes of apartment projects had entered the market which were
largely supplied by low to middle-up class apartments, mostly
located in non-prime areas, including East, North, West and
Central Jakarta. On the other hand, six projects catering to the
upper market segment are mainly located in South Jakarta and
the CBD.
location
region
Developer
No. of Units
CBD
PT Duta Regency
234
CBD
136
CBD
Farpoint Realty
Central Jakarta
Central Jakarta
PT Duta Paramindo
1,000
Central Jakarta
PT Duta Paramindo
1,000
Central Jakarta
128
420
114
520
East Jakarta
Bakrieland Development
East Jakarta
Bakrieland Development
390
Jl. DI Panjaitan
East Jakarta
Wika Realty
422
Kelapa Gading
North Jakarta
Summarecon
100
Kelapa Gading
North Jakarta
Summarecon
100
Tifolia Apartment
North Jakarta
500
Gading Greenhill
North Jakarta
Gading Selaras
700
Jl. P Antasari
South Jakarta
Lippo Karawaci
400
Jl. P Antasari
South Jakarta
Lippo Karawaci
175
Jl. Dharmawangsa X
South Jakarta
244
Jl. Fatmawati
South Jakarta
PT Harmas Jalasveva
860
South Jakarta
218
South Jakarta
750
South Jakarta
720
South Jakarta
188
South Jakarta
221
Jl H. Nawi No. 1
South Jakarta
Gapura Prima
West Jakarta
West Jakarta
176
West Jakarta
525
40
420
18
CBD
5%
East
Jakarta
19%
North
Jakarta
20%
Central
Jakarta
21%
CBD
10%
East
Jakarta
12%
South
Jakarta
17%
North
Jakarta
12%
Central
Jakarta
20%
South
Jakarta
28%
location
region
no. of units
2015
The Grove (Empyreal + Masterpiece)
Rasuna Said
CBD
438
Satrio
CBD
64
Satrio
CBD
119
Satrio
CBD
349
426
Setiabudi
CBD
Setiabudi
CBD
160
Satrio
CBD
120
Gunung Sahari
Central Jakarta
791
Salemba
Central Jakarta
727
Salemba
Central Jakarta
976
Menteng Park
Cikini
Central Jakarta
756
Pramuka
Central Jakarta
1,000
Pramuka
Central Jakarta
1,000
Kemayoran
Central Jakarta
800
Springhill, Kemayoran
Central Jakarta
192
Springhill, Kemayoran
Central Jakarta
192
Menteng Park
Cikini
Central Jakarta
756
Kemayoran
Central Jakarta
522
Kemayoran
Central Jakarta
612
Titanium Square
Pasar Rebo
East Jakarta
725
Duren Sawit
East Jakarta
1,000
The H Residence
MT Haryono
East Jakarta
383
East Jakarta
600
Callia Apartment
Perintis Kemerdekaan
North Jakarta
560
Perintis Kemerdekaan
North Jakarta
821
Ancol
North Jakarta
800
Pluit
North Jakarta
2,072
1,100
Teluk Gong
North Jakarta
Pasar Minggu
South Jakarta
341
continued
Apartment name
location
region
no. of units
continuation
Kemang
South Jakarta
150
Buncit Raya
South Jakarta
225
Senopati Suites 2
Senopati
South Jakarta
81
Lenteng Agung
South Jakarta
980
Barito
South Jakarta
80
South Jakarta
626
Kalibata
South Jakarta
221
Kebayoran Baru
South Jakarta
279
Nine Residence
Warung Buncit
South Jakarta
246
Providence Park
Permata Hijau
South Jakarta
114
Kencana Residence
Pondok Indah
South Jakarta
173
TB. Simatupang
South Jakarta
542
Pasar Minggu
South Jakarta
288
Pondok Pinang
South Jakarta
270
Pondok Pinang
South Jakarta
270
Fatmawati
South Jakarta
644
Pejaten
South Jakarta
44
19 Avenue Apartment
Daan Mogot
West Jakarta
338
Kosambi
West Jakarta
1,000
Puri Indah
West Jakarta
164
Kebon Jeruk
West Jakarta
1,451
Puri Indah
West Jakarta
150
Satu8 Residence
Kedoya
West Jakarta
174
Meruya Utara
West Jakarta
1,100
Daan Mogot
West Jakarta
546
Gallery West
Kebon Jeruk
West Jakarta
280
Sudirman Suites
Sudirman
CBD
380
CBD
318
Central Jakarta
307
Sentosa Residence
Cempaka Putih
Central Jakarta
687
Central Jakarta
255
Capitol Suites
Central Jakarta
327
Central Jakarta
192
Pramuka
Central Jakarta
1,000
Cempaka Putih
Central Jakarta
East Jakarta
East Jakarta
550
MT. Haryono
East Jakarta
800
2016
230
1,100
East Jakarta
1,000
East Jakarta
1,000
East Jakarta
1,000
East Jakarta
600
Ancol
North Jakarta
1,500
North Jakarta
568
continued
Apartment name
location
region
no. of units
continuation
Pluit
North Jakarta
940
Pluit
North Jakarta
300
South Jakarta
253
Senopati Suites 3
Jl. Senopati
South Jakarta
54
Kebayoran Lama
South Jakarta
435
South Jakarta
560
Four Winds
South Jakarta
122
Bellevue Place
MT Haryono, Tebet
South Jakarta
208
Kebayoran Icon
South Jakarta
256
West Jakarta
165
Puri Mansion
West Jakarta
900
1,200
Madison Park
Tanjung Duren
West Jakarta
Veranda
West Jakarta
174
West Jakarta
200
Meruya Ilir
West Jakarta
350
Gianetti Apartment
Kemanggisan
West Jakarta
500
Demand
During the last quarter of 2014, the overall take-up rate of the
Jakarta apartment market increased modestly from 86.6 to 87.0%
compared to the previous quarter. This figure represents the
absorption of all existing and under-construction projects. On
an annual basis, the take-up rate of existing projects suggests
an upward trend in the future. On the other hand, the takeup rate of the future projects (including under construction
and newly introduced projects) experienced a modest drop
in 2014. The Jakarta apartment market, particularly the future
projects (under construction and newly introduced projects),
saw demand softening as indicated by a lower take-up rate
compared to the previous years performance. The condition was
also influenced by the weakening of the economy as well as the
continued increase in the interest rate and new LTV regulation in
late 2013. In addition, the general election more or less triggered
a downbeat sentiment among potential buyers and investors,
particularly in the first semester of 2014. Overall, the cumulative
take-up rate of existing projects in 2014 has reached 95.6%,
leaving only 6,475 units vacant, while the take-up rate of future
projects reached 72.1%.
2011
2012
Existing
2013
2014
Future
The CBD area maintained the highest take-up rate of all regions,
with an average of 97.5%. This figure suggests a 2.2% increase
from the previous quarter as a result of continued absorption in
both the existing and under construction projects. The healthy
performance also occurred in South Jakarta, which posted a
upward trend both QoQ and YoY, by 1.4 and 3.7%, respectively.
91.20%
92.60%
1.40%
3.70%
83.10%
83.60%
83.40%
-0.20%
0.30%
3.10%
4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2013
11.90%
4Q 2013 vs 4Q 2014
21.10%
16.90%
4Q 2014
88.90%
4Q 2011 vs 4Q 2012
3Q 2014 vs 4Q 2014
5.70%
3Q 2014
South Jakarta
Non-prime area
2Q 2014 vs 3Q 2014
4.70%
2Q 2014
0.40%
1Q 2014 vs 2Q 2014
1Q 2014
2.20%
YoY
4Q 2013
97.50%
QoQ
3Q 2013
95.30%
Change
2Q 2013
4Q 2014
1Q 2013
97.10%
3q 2014
3Q 2012
CBD
4Q 2013
4Q 2012
Area
Asking Price
1Q 2012
2Q 2012
In contrast to the CBD and South Jakarta area, the nonprime areas, including Central, West, East and North Jakarta,
experienced sluggish performance due to the abundance
of newly introduced apartment projects that exceeded the
consistent absorption. This became the main factor affecting the
downswing of the take-up rate to 83.4% over the reviewed quarter.
The massive number of units from mid-low to lower apartment
projects created a more competitive market and curbed potential
growth of the take-up rate in the non-prime areas. On another
front, apartment projects that provide a better concept, good
building quality and design, and which are adjacent to public
facilities and developed by reputable developers, are expected
to generate sales in the upcoming quarters.
4Q 2011
Change
4Q 2013
3q 2014
4Q 2014
CBD
36,174,524
41,759,611
43,472,842
4%
20%
South Jakarta
25,854,554
31,241,685
32,033,471
3%
24%
Non-Prime Area
18,298,766
20,320,645
20,764,022
2%
13%
QoQ
YoY
year of
operation
location
Region
developer
no. of
units
2015
Cilandak Barat
South Jakarta
Constructa Builder
110
2015
Karbela Selatan
CBD
150
2016
Senopati
South Jakarta
Oakwood
180
2016
Warung Buncit
South Jakarta
Bahama Group
N/A
2016
Satrio
CBD
Frasers Hospitality
200
23
Occupancy Rates
Be comparable to strata-title apartment, a quite similar trend
also occurred in the apartment for lease market, where leasing
demand softened during the last quarter of 2014. Lease expiry
and completed employment contracts (expatriates) are two
factors that have affected the declining occupancy rate. For
particular reason from some Japanese are thinking of moving
out from apartments for lease which is in most cases are standalone development to strata-title apartments which are part of
integrated developments with shopping center. The needs to be
around in the same community and to be in the proximity to
shopping facilities are reasons for Japanese expatriates to live in
strata-title apartments that offered for lease.
100%
Further, during the reviewed period, the occupancy level for nonserviced apartment declined modestly by less than 1% QoQ to
77.8%, while for serviced apartment it dropped by less than 2% to
70.2%. As shown in the table below, occupancy rate for serviced
apartment in the CBD experienced a significant decrease among
other areas, while for non-serviced apartment, occupancy rate
for non-prime areas area dropped by 1% compared to previous
quarter.
10%
3Q 2014
4Q 2014
QoQ change
CBD
84.6%
84.5%
-0.1%
South Jakarta
78.0%
77.1%
-0.9%
Non-Prime area
75.9%
74.9%
-1.0%
Area
3Q 2014
4Q 2014
QoQ change
80.4%
78.7%
South Jakarta
75.7%
74.6%
-1.1%
Non-Prime area
52.2%
51.8%
-0.4%
Area
Occupancy
Performance
Lease
Change
3Q 2014
CBD
80.50%
82.30%
81.30%
-1.00%
0.8%
South Jakarta
78.70%
77.60%
76.60%
-1.00%
-2.0%
Non-prime Areas
71.90%
70.40%
69.60%
-0.80%
-2.4%
24
4Q 2014
for
4Q 2013
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
0%
2011
2012
Non-Serviced
2013
2014
Serviced
2011
77,307
2012
72,427
2013
68,957
-1.7%
The QoQ
Apartment
80%
Year
90%
QoQ
YoY
Area
non-serviced
apartment
CBD
USD34.48
USD17.52
USD26.69
USD13.12
Outlook
Overall, the 2014 performance was under the level of
accomplishment in 2013. In term of total units of newly
introduced projects, the total apartment supply in 2014 was only
12,164 units, dropped by 45% compared to 2013s figure of 21,935
units. Moreover, the overall lackluster absorption was mainly
due to the tight competition among under-construction projects.
The competition among the under-construction apartment and
the limitation in financing due to LTV regulation has pushed
developers to become more creative like providing flexible
financing terms and marketing gimmick which alleviate the
burden of consumers.
In the rental apartment market, tight competition and slow
rental movement is seen to characterize the market in 2015.
The relatively stagnant occupancy rate is seen to continue due
to some additional new stock of leased apartment project and
competition from strata-title apartments offered for lease. On
this basis, we expect no significant increase in the rental rate in
2015, as we only anticipate 5-6% increase compared to the 2014.
USD 30.00
USD 27.00
USD 24.00
USD 21.00
USD 18.00
USD 15.00
USD 12.00
USD 9.00
USD 6.00
USD 3.00
CBD
4Q 2014
3Q 2014
2Q 2014
1Q 2014
4Q 2013
3Q 2013
2Q 2013
1Q 2013
4Q 2012
3Q 2012
2Q 2012
1Q 2012
USD 0.00
Expatriate Housing
Sector
Expatriate Housing
During 2H 2014, two locations in Cilandak and Kemand saw the
completion of five new expat-standard, 3- to 4-bedroom, 400
to 450 sq m houses with 500 sq m of land. The supply of expat
housing stock is still lagging behind the demand. The stock
situation of expat housing mostly remained as it was in 1H 2014.
As the favourite expat location remains South Jakarta, the growth
of new housing stock is always limited compared to the need for
houses. Land stock is also limited, particularly the most sought
after locations like Kebayoran Baru, Pondok Indah, Kemang,
Cipete and Kuningan, and even Menteng in the Central Jakarta
area. Furthermore, land is selling for very high prices, making
the investment in low-rise residences yield a low return. South
Jakarta area is still irreplaceable as the home of expatriates from
European and American countries as it provides almost all of
the facilities such as international school, entertainment spots,
shopping destinations, golf courses and other points of interest.
For the sake of security and comfort, gated compounds are
always interesting, particularly for non-corporate expatriates.
Quite a few corporations are considering not housing all of their
expat employees in one compound. Nowadays, it is common
to see gated communities inhabited by expats from different
companies. Although the interest in such integrated housing
compounds is quite strong, gated housing compounds are not
widely available in expatriate locations.
Due to limited supply, expatriate-standard housing in expatriate
locations, such as in South Jakarta is considered premium
property, and therefore landlords owning many housing units
tend to have a take-it or leave-it attitude when negotiating
with tenants. Individual landlords having only a few houses
are generally quite flexible in terms of rent negotiations as they
rely heavily on the income from the property. Currently, the
minimum rent for a house for expatriates is USD3,000 / month
/ unit, for a 3-bedroom house in Cipete and the maximum is
USD15,000 / month / unit for a 4- to 5-bedroom house in the
Kebayoran, Menteng and Pondok Indah areas.
The expatriate housing market reached a plateau in early 2014,
highlighted by modest inquiries for housing accommodation.
Nevertheless, landlords who have a great number of houses
were still confident in maintaining the rental rate at the high
level due to their success in 2013. On the other hand, individual
landlords are more willing to negotiate the rental rate. These
landlords are more concerned when their houses are vacant for
periods of more than three months. Negotiating rent with certain
individual landlords is relatively pleasant as they will lower the
rental rates between 10 and 15%.
size (sq m)
menteng
4 - 5 Bedrooms House
500 - 1,200
5,000 - 15,000
500 - 900
4,500 - 12,000
450 - 1,000
4,500 - 15,000
600 - 1,500
5,000 - 15,000
250 - 700
3,500 - 8,500
400 - 1,500
4,500 - 12,000
220
3,500
kuningan
4 - 5 Bedrooms House
Pondok indah
4 - 5 Bedrooms House
kebayoran baru
4 - 5 Bedrooms House
3 - 4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
4 - 5 Bedrooms House
3 - 4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
kemang
3 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
400 - 700
3,500 - 5,500
4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
400 - 750
3,500 - 5,000
550 - 1,000
4,000 - 7,000
4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
300 - 700
4,000 - 6,500
300 - 600
3,500 - 5,500
4 - 5 Bedroom House
450 - 750
4,000 - 7,000
4 - 5 Bedrooms House
cilandak
cipete
3 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
200 - 300
3,500 - 5,000
4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
400 - 700
4,500 - 6,000
3 + 1 Bedrooms House
300 - 500
3,000 - 3,500
4 - 5 Bedroom House
400 - 800
3,500 - 7,000
3 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
400 - 600
4,000 - 7,000
4 Bedrooms House
500 - 900
3,500 - 7,000
pejaten
Demand
For some time, the oil and gas industry has been the major
drive of the demand for expatriate housing. To date, demand for
expatriate housing from the oil and gas sector softened, waiting
for the new government to accelerate the economy. This resulted
in the slow absorption of expat housing from this industry during
the reviewed period. On another front, the manufacturing and
consumer goods industries were quite active with business
expansions, which accordingly brought more expat workers.
Other active industries are mining, banking, insurance and
investments. Demand from government institutions and
embassies was relatively flat and remained in the same trend as
in the previous semester.
During the second semester, occupiers are still mainly young
families with one or two elementary school-age children. This
typical age group of expatriates are generally quite fussy when
discussing schools for their children. The case at the leading
international school, Jakarta International School (JIS) has gone
to trial and it looks like the management put great effort into
overcoming the situation and restoring their reputation.
size (sq m)
non-serviced apartment
serviced apartment
sudirman
2 Bedrooms Apartment
106 - 257
2,500 - 4,000
4,250 - 5,600
3 Bedrooms Apartment
156 - 370
3,500 - 6,000
5,000 - 7,500
menteng
2 Bedrooms Apartment
90 - 142
3,000 - 3,900
3 Bedrooms Apartment
124 - 213
3,350 - 5,000
4 Bedrooms Apartment
319
17,000
kuningan
2 Bedrooms Apartment
120 - 145
2,500 - 3,500
3,150 - 5,500
3 Bedrooms Apartment
157 - 323
3,000 - 4,500
3,450 - 5,500
4 Bedrooms Apartment
440
5,500 - 7,000
continued
apartment by area
size (sq m)
non-serviced apartment
serviced apartment*
continuation
pondok indah
2 + 1 Bedrooms Apartment
117 - 190
2,500 - 3,000
3,500 - 4,200
3 Bedrooms Apartment
190 - 455
2,800 - 3,500
4,000 - 5,400
4 - 5 Bedrooms Apartment
285 - 455
3,500 - 5,000
5,650 - 6,400
Kebayoran baru
2 Bedrooms Apartment
140 - 203
3,200 - 4,300
3 Bedrooms Apartment
243 - 302
4,500 - 6,000
4- 5 Bedrooms Apartment
400 - 500
8,000 - 10,000
105 - 115
3,100 - 3,150
165 - 300
2,700 - 4,000
3,350 - 3,400
165 - 300
2,500 - 4,500
262 - 300
3,450 - 5,000
300
4,500
220 - 295
4,000 - 6,000
70 - 191
1,500 - 3,000
2 Bedrooms Apartment
3 - 4 Bedrooms Apartment
Kemang
3 Bedrooms Apartment
cilandak
3 - 4 Bedrooms Apartment
3 Bedrooms Apartment + Study
cipete
3 - 4 Bedrooms Apartment
pejaten
1 - 3 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
*exclude Breakfast
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Occupancy
Despite being lower than in the previous semester, the overall
occupancy for upper-class apartments generally still had high
occupancy rates ranging from 74 to 92%. The average occupancy
level for all expatriate apartments in our basket experienced a
modest decrease of 5% compared to the previous semester, to
83%.
Average
RETAIL SECTOR
Supply
Jakarta
Jakarta has seen a limited number of new shopping centres
since 2013. Lippo Mal Puri and two extension projects in Puri
and Kelapa Gading brought 138,200 sq m of additional supply,
delivering the cumulative at 4.44 million sq m in 2014. By only
growing 3.2% YoY, the growth of supply recorded below 4% since
2011.
Limited additional supply will again be seen in Jakarta in 2015
2018. Moreover, the absence of newly launched shopping centres
has brought about no change in the list of future supply since
the beginning of 2014. In 2015, Jakarta will only have 38,000 sq
m of additional supply from the contribution of two shopping
centres called PIK (Pantai Indah Kapuk) Mall in North Jakarta
and Shopping Mall at Pancoran in South Jakarta.
Based on construction progress, only four among the future
shopping centres in 20152018 are currently under construction;
the others are still in the planning stage. Three of these underconstruction projects are developed by a well-known developer
(APL Agung Podomoro Land).
sq m
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Existing Supply
Annual Supply
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
Jakarta Shopping
Based on Area
Center
Cumulative
Supply
Cumulative
Supply
5,500,000
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
For Sale
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
sq m
Despite the slowing down of supply, Jakarta will still see new
shopping centres emerging each year from 2015 to 2017. In
addition to its positive effect of providing employment, it is
good to have new malls because they drive economic growth.
The existence of new malls can be considered an indicator for
tenants, especially foreign retailers, that Indonesia has a good
climate for investment.
For Lease
West Jakarta
East Jakarta
North Jakarta
South Jakarta
Central Jakarta
CBD
0
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
sq m
sq m
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
3,000,000
500,000
2,500,000
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014
Annual Supply
2,000,000
sq m
Existing Supply
2013
2012
2011
2010
1,500,000
1,000,000
For Sale
Bekasi
Tangerang
Depok
Bogor
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
sq m
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014
2013
For Lease
2012
2011
500,000
2010
location
region
NLA (sq m)
Status
Jakarta
2015
Pantai Indah Kapuk Mall
North Jakarta
Pancoran
South Jakarta
Slipi
West Jakarta
Glodok
West Jakarta
60,000
8,000
Under Construction
2016
Neo SOHO Mall (Podomoro City)
2017
New Harco Plaza
Under Construction
Puri Indah
West Jakarta
75,000 In Planning
Grand Cipulir
Cipulir
South Jakarta
40,000
Jatinegara City
Jatinegara
East Jakarta
50,000 In Planning
In Planning
North Jakarta
30,000 In Planning
Cempaka Putih
Central Jakarta
40,000 In Planning
Cakung
East Jakarta
90,000 In Planning
Mas Mansyur
Central Jakarta
Serpong
Tangerang
Bulak Kapal
Bekasi
56,000
In Planning
Cileungsi
Bogor
25,000
In Planning
Jababeka
Bekasi
18,000
In Planning
Cibinong
Bogor
30,000 In Planning
Cibinong
Bogor
13,000
Deltamas
Bekasi
90,000 In Planning
Jababeka
Bekasi
20,000
In Planning
Cibinong
Bogor
20,000
In Planning
Hollywood Central
Cikarang
Bekasi
25,000 In Planning
2018
Mall at The City Center
In Planning
BoDeTaBek
2015
AEON Mall BSD City
2016
2017
In Planning
Embarcadero
Bintaro
Tangerang
40,000
Bekasi
Bekasi
24,000 In Planning
In Planning
Sawangan Mall
Sawangan
Depok
In Planning
Bekasi
Bekasi
Karawaci
Tangerang
Sentul
Bogor
2018
51,000 In planning
120,000 In planning
15,000
In planning
100%
90%
95%
80%
2,500,000
sq m
100%
70%
60%
2,000,000
50%
1,500,000
40%
1,000,000
500,000
85%
80%
75%
30%
70%
20%
65%
10%
90%
60%
0%
2010
Space Absorbed
2011
2012
2013
Vacant Space
2014
Occupancy
2010
2011
Central Jakarta
South Jakarta
East Jakarta
West Jakarta
2012
2013
North Jakarta
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
For Sale
2014
For Lease
Occupancy Performance
in BoDeTaBek
of
Retail
Centers
2013
2014
100%
90%
80%
sq m
70%
2,000,000
100%
1,800,000
90%
1,600,000
80%
1,400,000
70%
1,200,000
60%
1,000,000
50%
800,000
40%
600,000
30%
400,000
20%
200,000
10%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
Bogor
Space Absorbed
2011
2012
2013
Vacant Space
Depok
2012
Tangerang
0%
2010
2011
2014
Occupancy
Bekasi
Rents
IDR 700,000
IDR 600,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 900,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 800,000
IDR 0
2010
2011
2012
Jakarta
2013
2014
IDR 700,000
IDR 600,000
BoDeTaBek
IDR 500,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 0
2010
Upper Class
IDR 300,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 0
2012
2013
2014
CBD
Central Jakarta
South Jakarta
North Jakarta
East Jakarta
West Jakarta
Middle
2013
2014
Middle Low
IDR 400,000
2011
2012
IDR 500,000
2010
2011
IDR 400,000
IDR 360,000
IDR 320,000
IDR 280,000
IDR 120,000
IDR 240,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 160,000
IDR 80,000
IDR 120,000
IDR 80,000
IDR 60,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 0
IDR 40,000
2010
Bogor
2011
2012
Depok
2013
Tangerang
2014
Bekasi
IDR 20,000
IDR 0
2010
Service Charge
Bogor
IDR 120,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 80,000
IDR 60,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 20,000
IDR 0
2011
2012
Jakarta
2013
Depok
2012
2014
BoDeTaBek
2013
Tangerang
2010
2011
2014
Bekasi
Industrial Estate
Sector
Supply
By the end of the year, the industrial land stock remained
unchanged as was observed in the previous quarter. Industrial
estates with land stocks that are being planned for development
have yet to deliver their new industrial land expansion during
the quarter. Most of the operating industrial estates with ongoing
land development are progressing with cut-and-fill works
and putting the infrastructure to catch up with the deadline
of completion. Meanwhile, land construction activities in
several new industrial estates located in Trans Hexa Karawang
area seem to be intensive. Industrial estates like GT Techpark
@ Karawang, Podomoro Industrial Park and others are quite
progressive in developing the land as they have secured buyers
and have to deliver the land as scheduled. Still in the same
location, Podomoro Industrial Park confirmed the beginning of
construction, with the first stage of 325 hectares being ready for
use by November or December this year.
An industrial estate in Karawang has confirmed the delivery of
land totalling 84 ha, which was transacted back in 2012. With
limited ready-to-use land available, it is now planning to prepare
the remaining raw land in the third stage while keeping the
unsold land in the second stage.
Several industrial estates with limited land have reported their
remaining land stock availability. One industrial estate in Bekasi
confirmed that it has a ready-to-use 15 ha of land available in
stock. Another industrial estate in Karawang has only less than
2 ha of land to offer. One industrial estate in Tangerang reported
that only 7 ha remain as ready-to-use land.
Industrial estate like Delta Silicon is now focusing on selling the
latest stage of development, i.e. Delta Silicon 8, which will be
delivered sometime in 2015 or 2016. With a higher sales target
in 2015, Delta Silicon is anticipating to sell more in 2015 from
the stock in Delta Silicon 8. Similarly, GIIC and KIEC set higher
sales targets in 2015, and they are now rushing the completion
of under-construction land. KIEC is focusing on selling the next
stage of land, which is part of the 200 ha plan.
There are some plans for expansion at existing industrial estates
and for the opening of new industrial estates. The big parcel of
land will be potentially contributed by industrial estates located
in the Trans Hexa Karawang corridor, as mentioned above. The
expansion of existing industrial estates has become a more
realistic plan because the existing tenants would potentially
become strong buyers. Other industries may eye the expansion
of existing industrial estates because of their reputation and
established infrastructure and facilities. A challenging situation
will be faced by new industrial estates, particularly in getting first
tenants with well-known brands to attract more tenants to come.
Hectares
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
Bekasi Fajar
Modern Cikande
1,000
500
KIIC
Jababeka
Bogor
Bekasi
Tangerang Karawang
Remaining Land
Serang
Demand
At the end of 2014, the total number of industrial land being
sold was almost similar to the total amount transacted in 2013,
i.e. 440.2 ha. The only major difference is the composition
of the area where the transactions occurred. Bekasi and
Serang regions sold more land compared to that in 2013.
Meanwhile, land sales in Karawang were almost negligible
in 2014 compared with those in 2013. Several prominent
transactions saved the overall performance this year,
which was predicted to experience a slow market situation.
The total land transacted this quarter was 102.87, lower than
that in the second and third quarters of 2014. It was mainly
contributed by the transaction concluded by Greenland
International Industrial Center (GIIC). GIIC reported a total
transaction of 49.83 ha concluded by seven investors with core
businesses in the logistics and automotive sectors. Another
significant transaction occurred in Bekasi Fajar, securing
three transactions from logistics and warehouse companies
totalling 21.62 ha. Two prominent industrial estates in Serang
consistently recorded some transactions during the last
quarter of 2014. Modern Cikande acquired 11.85 ha from six
transactions mainly from chemical industries, followed by other
manufacturing companies that focus on filtration systems,
ventilators, building materials and others, most of which are
new industries. On the other hand, KIEC was successful in
capturing state-owned companies in energy industries and
utility providers. Other transactions during the quarter were
relatively small in amount but showed consistency, such as
those of Jababeka, which reported land sales every quarter. This
quarter, Jababeka sold 3.6 ha of land to three local investors in
packaging, warehousing and general manufacturing industries.
10
20
30
40
50
60
hectares
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
40
80
120
160
hectares
Land Price
The average US dollar exchange rate against rupiah in 2014
climbed, albeit modestly, by 2% to IDR12,440. The weakening
local currency value to the greenback has affected the overall
calculation in this report mainly because some industrial estates
quoted land prices in rupiah and the rupiah currency is converted
into US dollars because most active industrial estates quoted
prices in US dollars. As a result, the average price has been quite
volatile, particularly when the exchange rate fluctuates. In Bogor
and Serang, all industrial estates offer industrial land in the local
currency. With a weakening rupiah against the US dollar, despite
maintaining the price at the same level, the average prices in US
dollars seem to be weakening somewhat.
1,400
1,200
Hectares
1,000
800
600
400
200
Jakarta
Bogor
Bekasi
Tangerang
Karawang
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
Serang
Packaging
1.3%
Logistics/
Warehousing
28.4%
Heavy
Metal Equipment
5.7% Building
1.0%
Machinery Material
1.2%
0.2%
Developer
0.2%
Plastics
3.1%
Others
3.2%
Food &
Beverage
28.8%
Automotive
22.5%
USD 0.09
USD 0.08
USD 200
USD 0.07
USD 0.06
USD 150
USD 0.05
USD 0.04
USD 100
USD 0.03
USD 0.02
USD 50
USD 0.01
USD 0
USD 0.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Bogor
Bekasi
Tangerang
Karawang
Serang
highest
Bogor
Bekasi
Tangerang
Karawang
Serang
Rental Factory
maintenance costs
(per sq m per month)
average
lowest
highest
average
USD 0.06
Bogor
USD 120.0
USD 228.7
USD 174.3
USD 0.06
USD 0.06
Bekasi
USD 185.0
USD 250.0
USD 223.5
USD 0.06
USD 0.08
USD 0.07
Tangerang
USD 155.2
USD 163.3
USD 159.2
USD 0.03
USD 0.08
USD 0.06
Karawang
USD 170.0
USD 200.0
USD 185.0
USD 0.05
USD 0.10
USD 0.06
Serang
USD 122.5
USD 142.9
USD 132.7
USD 0.03
USD 0.05
USD 0.04
*1USD = Rp 12,245
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research
Maintenance Cost
During the quarter, none of the industrial estates introduced
new service charge tariffs and preferred to maintain the cost at
the current level. Further, only a few industrial estates plan to
adjust the maintenance cost in 2015, although operating cost
is anticipated to increase following the fuel price hike and the
adjustment in the minimum regional wage. The fluctuating
electricity tariff is also foreseen to further affect the increase in
operating cost.
Yield Expectation
Gross rental yield expectation in 2014 somewhat moved
upward compared with that in the previous year. To obtain the
estimated gross yield, we took samples of some industrial estates
in different locations, either those with rental options or rental
information from the secondary market. In 2013, the cost of
renting a factory ranged from IDR32,000 to 70,000/sq m/month.
In 2014, rental rates ranged from IDR36,500 to 110,200/sq m/
month. The increment in the construction cost and land price
during the year regulated the percentage of gross yield registered
between 9.1% to 12.2%, which was quite high compared to other
property sectors.
Concluding Thought
The major challenges for the industrial market in 2015 are
the expensive US dollar denomination, increasing electricity
price and continued adjustment in the minimum wage.
Notwithstanding the fact that land availability remains the major
issue, several industrial estates have confirmed the handover
of ready-to-use land in 2015. When the market bounces as
expected, several industrial estates have enough land bank to
anticipate such situation.
As mentioned above, the policy in the minimum regional wage
is a big concern for many industrialists. This could possibly lead
to industrialists implementing intensive automation systems to
replace human workers whose labour price is getting expensive.
The increase in the minimum wage has a great effect in labourintensive industries. Areas in eastern greater Jakarta (Bodetabek),
which include Bekasi, Karawang and Purwakarta, experienced
the highest increase in the minimum wage for 2015, i.e. 20.4%
YoY. Meanwhile, the western part of greater Jakarta area, which
includes Tangerang and Serang, registered 11.9% increase YoY.
The industrial cities in East Java Province recorded the highest
YoY jump in 2015, i.e. 22.2%, making the minimum regional
wage in these cities similar to those in Jakarta and in the greater
Jakarta area. All in all, the increase in the minimum regional
wage might have a limited impact in multinational industries,
particularly high-tech industries.
43
IDR 2,500,000
IDR 2,000,000
IDR 1,500,000
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Kota Serang
Kabupaten Serang
Kota Tangerang
Kabupaten Tangerang
2015
IDR 3,000,000
IDR 2,500,000
IDR 2,500,000
IDR 2,000,000
IDR 2,000,000
IDR 1,500,000
IDR 1,500,000
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 0
IDR 500,000
2009
IDR 0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Kota Semarang
Kota Surabaya
Kabupaten Gresik
Kabupaten Sidoarjo
Kota Bekasi
Kabupaten Bekasi
Kota Pasuruan
Kabupaten Pasuruan
Kabupaten Karawang
Kabupaten Purwakarta
Kota Mojokerto
Kabupaten Mojokerto
2015
IDR 3,000,000
IDR 2,500,000
IDR 2,000,000
IDR 1,500,000
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 0
2009
2010
Kota Bogor
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Kabupaten Bogor
485 offices in
63 countries on
6 continents
Primary Authors:
Ferry Salanto
Associate Director | Jakarta
62 21 521 1400 ext 134
Ferry.Salanto@colliers.com
$2.1
billion in
annual revenue
1.46
15,800
professionals
and staff
Accelerating success.