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Research &

Forecast Report
4Q 2013
Jakarta
4th
Quarter
| Office
2014

Jakarta Property Market Report

Accelerating success.

Contents
Office Sector

Apartment Sector

13

Expatriate Housing Sector

23

Retail Sector

23

Industrial Estate Sector

32

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Contents | Colliers International

Highlight
Office Sector

By Ferry Salanto
Associate Director | Research
Ferry.Salanto@colliers.com

The slowing economy and the election has brought occupancy


rates down modestly by 1% YoY to 95.4%. In response to the
sluggish market, several premium and grade A office buildings
lowered their overly optimistic asking base rents by 10 to 20%.
This restrained the growth of average base rents in the CBD.
Nevertheless, the asking base rents for US dollar denominated
buildings grew by 6.9% YoY to USD36.84.

Apartment Sector
Only 51% or 10,701 units of the previously projected supply for
the whole 2014 of 20,899 units came onto the market in 2014. As
a result, the remaining 49% (or 10,188 units) will be completed
this year for a total potential supply in 2015 of 38,562 units
representing 25% of the total existing supply. Take-up rates of
projects under development dropped moderately this year to
72.1%.

Retail Sector
There are a limited number of new retail properties completed in
2014 in DKI Jakarta bringing cumulative supply to 4.44 million sq
m for a 3.2% increase YoY. The YoY occupancy was down
modestly and was recorded at 86.3% at end of 2014 because the
physical occupancy in contrast with the leased spaces of newly
operating shopping center was still relatively low. Given this
situation, the asking base rent only grew by 7.3% YoY to
IDR510,562/sq m/month.

Industrial Estate Sector


Although the downturn in the economy and political uncertainty
characterized 2014, total industrial land sales during the year
reached 421 ha which was almost equal to total sales in 2013.
Another surprising fact is that land prices continued to increase,
albeit moderately, by 9.8% YoY, mainly driven by adjustments
occurring in several estates located in Bekasi, Serang and
Tangerang.

Colliers International
is a leader in global real estate services, defined by our spirit
of enterprise. Through a culture of service excellence and
collaboration, we integrate the resources of real estate specialists
worldwide to accelerate the success of our partners. We represent
property investors, developers and occupiers in local and
global markets. Our expertise spans all property sectorsoffice,
industrial, retail, residential, rural & agribusiness, healthcare &
retirement living, hotels & leisure.

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

OFFICE SECTOR
Leased Office

Owing to the dynamic market and unexpected internal situation,


several developers announced the postponement of their
projects completions. In the previous projection, the total
office space in 2015 was 607,462 sq m. Approaching the end of
2014, three office buildings with a total space of 156,367 sq m
announced that they rescheduled their completions until 2016.
Nevertheless, with the delay of three office projects in 2014 with a
total of 151,438 sq m as the supply for 2015, the total office supply
in 2015 will be 10 office buildings that will contribute 602,533 sq
m, which is nearly the same as our previous projection. Sudirman
Thoroughfare still leads as the main generator by contributing
three office buildings. Sahid Sudirman Center will be the largest
office building with 138,500 sq m of semi-gross area, and will be
the second office building in Jakarta larger than 100,000 sq m.
The existing office building larger than 100,000 sq m is Wisma
Mulia, which is also pursuing completion of a second office
building in Gatot Subroto, called Wisma Mulia 2, that is also
expected to begin operations in 2015.

Supply
CBD Office Cumulative Supply
8,000,000
7,000,000

sq m

6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000

Based on construction progress, most of those future office


buildings expected to be completed in 2015 - 2018 are under
construction and only five of 40 future office buildings in the CBD
are still in planning. Most of these are expected to be completed
in 2017 - 2018.

3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000

Existing Supply

2019F

2018F

2017F

2016F

2015F

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Annual Supply

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

As of December 2014,only one office building in the CBD


became a new office supply during 2014, i.e., Lippo Kuningan.
This office building brought 30,500 sq m of additional supply in
2014 and represents 14% of the previously projected total annual
supply of 218,305 sq m. Lippo Kuningan, located in Rasuna Said,
brought the cumulative supply to 4.78 million sq m in 2014. In
the first months of 2014, it was expected that five office buildings
would become new office supply during 2014. However, based
on construction progress, some office buildings will reschedule
their completions. Of the four projects delaying operation in
2014s, three office buildings confirmed that they will begin
operations in early or mid-2015 while one building will postpone
its completion until some time in 2016.
From 2010 to 2014 (five years), the average annual new supply in
the CBD was 155,809 sq m. The CBD will see more than 600,000
sq m average of annual supply from 2015 - 2019.

Some future office buildings were also announced in 2014. The


CBD will see The Hundred (in Mega Kuningan), New Towers
at Sampoerna Strategic Complex (in Sudirman), Signature 101
(in SCBD) and Pertamina Tower (in Rasuna Said). Additionally,
three redevelopment projects scattered around Sudirman and
Thamrin will also contribute an additional supply of office
buildings by 2020.

CBD Cumulative Supply Based on Region


Satrio

Gatot Subroto

Mega Kuningan

Rasuna Said

Sudirman

Thamrin

1,000,000
Existing 2014

2,000,000
Future Supply

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

3,000,000

4,000,000
sq m

2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000

Existing Supply

2019F

2018F

2017F

2016F

2015F

2014

2013

2012

Annual Supply

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

The Outside CBD showed more additional supply than the CBD
during 2014. By contributing 155,470 sq m and bringing the
cumulative supply to 2.44 million sq m in 2014, the additional
supply in the Outside CBD was above 100,000 sq m per year since
2010. It is similar to the CBD in that future supply in the Outside
CBD will see significant growth in 2015 - 2018. It is expected that
the additional supply in the Outside CBD will grow at 13.6% per
year during 2015 - 2018.

Future Office Space in the CBD


1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000

sq m

2,500,000

2011

Conversely, Satrio, Mega Kuningan and Gatot Subroto will see


significant growth of 60.1%, 51.7% and 43.6%, respectively in
2015 - 2018, compared to the total supply in 2014 in each area.
Thamrin will contribute the least of both existing and future
supply. In 2015 - 2018, the Thamrin area will only see two
office buildings begin operations, namely Lippo Thamrin and
Thamrin Nine. Both of these were under construction in 2014.
A redevelopment project of Plaza eX (shopping mall) will cause
Thamrin to expect huge additional supply in the future.

3,000,000

2010

Rasuna Said also became an active thoroughfare during 2012


- 2014 by contributing five office buildings. Except for Lippo
Kuningan, which began operations in 2014, the others are small
office buildings of less than 25,000 sq m. Rasuna Said alone
contributed 19.4% of the cumulative supply in 2014, the second
most in the CBD.

Outside CBD Office Cumulative Supply excluding


TB Simatupang

sq m

Based on region, Sudirman and Rasuna Said are the most active
corridors to contribute additional supply, at least during 2012 2014. Seventeen office buildings have been operating since 2012
and brought 465,356 sq m of additional supply; eight of these
are located in Sudirman and brought 212,316 sq m of additional
supply; 45.8% of the cumulative supply as of 2014 is located in
Sudirman Thoroughfare.

Based on area, West and South Jakarta will lead as the main
contributors of future supply in the Outside CBD during 2015 2018. As of 2014, the total supply in West Jakarta was 449,206 sq
m, and in South Jakarta was 1.16 million sq m.

500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2015F
In Planning

2016F

2017F

For Sale

For Lease

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

2018F

The toll road (the last section of the Jakarta Outer Ring Road or
JORR) that connects the southern and western parts of Jakarta
gives West Jakarta the potential to grow, especially areas near
the toll road. Currently, Ciputra Group has started a big project
called Ciputra International. Taking advantage of the toll road,
this well-known group will develop a mixed-use project that
provides an office park and residences (apartments and hotel).
The other growing areas in West Jakarta are Puri and Kebun
Jeruk. At least three office buildings are being developed in those
areas.
South Jakarta, again, continues to contribute large supply in
the Outside CBD. An additional 750,979 sq m of new supply
is expected in the market by 2018. TB Simatupang will be the
main generator by contributing almost 68% of the future supply.
Remaining spaces will be scattered around Kebayoran Baru,
Pasar Minggu and Pancoran Districts.

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

While most regions in the Outside CBD will contribute future


supply, East Jakarta will see no additional supply by 2018. With
no additional space in the future, East Jakarta only contributed
less than 5% or 111,856 sq m of the cumulative supply as of the
end of 2014.

Outside CBD Cumulative Supply Based on Area

TB Simatupang contributed four of 10 office buildings that were


in operation in the Outside CBD in 2014. Those four brought
98,859 sq m of new additional supply to bring the cumulative
total to 596,655 sq m in 2014. The Manhattan Square and Palma
Tower are office buildings that have been in operation since the
previous quarter.
The largest additional supply in TB Simatupang since 1990 was
in 2014. However, additional supply in 2015 in TB Simatupang
will double that in 2014. Seven office buildings are seemingly
ready to operate in 2015 based on construction progress. Four
office buildings that are expected to start operations in 2015 each
will be larger than 40,000 sq m and those will be the first ever in
TB Simatupang.

West Jakarta

East Jakarta

As of 2014, most future office buildings have started construction


and seemingly will be completed in 2015 - 2018. Some office
building projects in TB Simatupang are located within complexes
such as Beltway, South Quarter, Manhattan Square, Metropolitan
Tower, The Sima and an in-planning project at Arkadia.

North Jakarta

South Jakarta

Annual Supply in the Outside CBD and TB Simatupang

Central Jakarta

500,000

300,000 600,000 900,000 1,200,000 1,500,000


Existing 2014

sq m

Future Supply

400,000

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang


Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

300,000

Existing Supply

2019F

2018F

2017F

2016F

2015F

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Annual Supply

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

As depicted in the chart above, the cumulative supply in TB


Simatupang has more than tripled, from around 200,000 to
600,000 sq m, during 2000 - 2014. This means that there was
around 400,000 sq m of additional supply in 14 years. In the
future, TB Simatupang will see larger additional supply with
around 500,000 sq m in only the four years ahead.

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

2019F

2018F

600,000

2017F

2016F

900,000

2015F

100,000

2014

1,200,000

2013

200,000

2012

1,500,000

2011

sq m

300,000

2010

sq m

TB Simatupang Cumulative Supply

TB Simatupang

Annual Office Space Based on Marketing Scheme


in Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang

in TB Simatupang
250,000

200,000

200,000

150,000

150,000

sq m

sq m

250,000

100,000

100,000

50,000

50,000

0
2015F
In Planning

2016F

2017F

For Sale

For Lease

2018F

2015F
In Planning

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

2016F

2017F

For Sale

For Lease

2018F

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

New Supply Pipeline


projected
completion

Office building projects name

location

SGA

Marketing scheme

status development

CBD
2015

Gran Rubina Tower 1

Rasuna Said

31,438

2015

Sinarmas MSIG

Sudirman

75,000 For Lease

Under Construction

2015

The Noble House Office Tower

Mega Kuningan

45,000

For Lease

Under Construction

2015

AIA Center (Menara Selaras)

Sudirman

47,000 For Lease

Under Construction

2015

Cemindo Tower

Rasuna Said

60,995

For Lease

Under Construction

2015

Sahid Sudirman Center

Sudirman

For Lease & Sale

Under Construction

2015

Telkom Landmark Tower II

Gatot Subroto

65,000

For Lease

Under Construction

2015

Bank Muamalat Tower (Satrio Square)

Satrio

24,600

For Lease

Under Construction

2015

BTPN Tower (Bahana Office Tower)

Mega Kuningan

50,000

For Lease

Under Construction

2015

Wisma Mulia 2

Gatot Subroto

65,000

For Lease

Under Construction

2016

Convergence

Rasuna Said

36,367

For Lease & Sale

Under Construction

2016

International Financial Center 2

Sudirman

50,000

For Lease

Under Construction

2016

Menara Pertiwi

Mega Kuningan

41,456

For Sale

Under Construction

2016

Mangkuluhur Tower

Gatot Subroto

53,000 For Lease & Sale

Under Construction

2016

Capital Palace (Office Tower @ ST Regis)

Gatot Subroto

2016

Menara Palma 2

Rasuna Said

2016

Centennial Tower

Gatot Subroto

2016

Ciputra World Jakarta 2

Satrio

2016

Satrio Tower

2016

The Tower

138,500

90,511

For Sale

Under Construction

For Lease

Under Construction

50,000 For Lease

Under Construction

100,000 For Sale

Under Construction

70,000 For Lease & Sale

Under Construction

Satrio

31,604

For Lease

Under Construction

Gatot Subroto

56,492

For Sale

Under Construction

2016

Lippo Thamrin Office Tower

Thamrin

16,500

For Sale

Under Construction

2016

T Tower (BJB Tower)

Gatot Subroto

24,000 For Sale

Under Construction
continued

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

New Supply Pipeline


projected
completion

Office building projects name

location

SGA

Marketing scheme

status development

continuation
2017

Prosperity Tower @ Distict 8

Sudirman

For Sale

Under Construction

2017

Gran Rubina Tower 2

Rasuna Said

32,000 For Sale

Under Construction

2017

Sequis Life Tower 2

Sudirman

80,000 For Lease

Under Construction

139,000

For Sale

Under Construction

For Lease

In Planning

2017

Treasury Tower @ District 8

Sudirman

2017

Gayanti City

Gatot Subroto

71,545

25,000

2017

Sopo Del Tower A

Mega Kuningan

80,000 For Lease & Sale

Under Construction

2017

Sopo Del Tower B

Mega Kuningan

40,000 For Lease

Under Construction

2018

Sudirman 7.8 (ex Nugra Santana)

Sudirman

52,000

In Planning

2018

SSI Tower (Graha Surya Intenusa)

Rasuna Said

2018

Mangkuluhur Tower II

Gatot Subroto

For Sale

100,000 For Lease

Under Construction

50,000 For Lease

In Planning
Under Construction

2018

Tower Two at The City Center

Sudirman

39,204

2018

World Trade Center III

Sudirman

70,000 For Lease

For Lease

Under Construction

2018

Icon Tower

Sudirman

72,500 For Lease

Under Construction

2018

Tower 2 @ Ciputra World Jakarta 1

Satrio

70,000 For Lease & Sale

Under Construction

2018

Astra Tower

Sudirman

80,000 For Lease

In Planning

97,500

Under Construction

2018

Thamrin Nine

Thamrin

2018

Chitaland

Gatot Subroto

For Lease

2019

The Hundred

Mega Kuningan

35,000

For Lease

2019

SCBD Lot.10 (PCPD Tower)

Sudirman

96,000

For Lease

2019

World Capital Tower

Mega Kuningan

72,000 For Sale

Under Construction

100,000 For Lease

In Planning
In Planning
Under Construction

2019

Gran Rubina Tower 2

Rasuna Said

32,000 For Sale

In Planning

2019

Tower Three at The City Center

Sudirman

34,000

For Lease

In Planning

2019

Tower 1 at Sampoerna Strategic Square

Sudirman

43,000

For Sale

In Planning

2019

Tower 2 at Sampoerna Strategic Square

Sudirman

118,000

For Lease

In Planning

2019

Redevelopment at Sequis Center

Sudirman

100,000 For Lease

In Planning

2019

Redevelopment eX

Thamrin

150,000

For Lease

In Planning

2019

Pertamina Tower

Rasuna Said

306,000 For Lease

In Planning

oUTSIDE CBD EXCLUDING TB SIMATUPANG


2015

Menara Sentraya

Blok M

52,072

For Sale

Under Construction

2015

ST Moritz Office Tower

Puri Indah

19,500

For Sale

Under Construction

2015

The Suites

Pantai Indah Kapuk

13,200

For Sale

Under Construction

2015

MNC Tower II

Kebon Sirih

20,000 For Lease

Under Construction

2015

Soho Capital

Slipi

36,000

Under Construction

40,000 For Sale

For Sale

2015

Altira

Sunter

2015

Maxima Tower

Kelapa Gading

8,000

For Lease

Under Construction

2015

Nariba Office Suites

Mampang

4,200

For Lease

Under Construction

2016

Puri Indah Financial Tower

Puri Indah

38,500

2016

Gallery West

Kebun Jeruk

29,000 For Sale

For Sale

Under Construction

In Planning
Under Construction

2016

Sky 18 Tower

Pasar Minggu

27,500 For Sale

Under Construction

2016

Soho Pancoran

Pancoran

30,000 For Sale

Under Construction

2016

Jakarta Box Tower

Kebon Sirih

36,000 For Lease

Under Construction

2016

Lippo Tower Holland Village

Cempaka Putih

27,000 For Sale

In Planning

2016

One Tower

Kemayoran

21,400

For Sale

In Planning

2016

BKP Office Tower

Sunter

16,000

For Lease

In Planning

2016

Tamansari Parama

Wahid Hasyim

10,800

For Sale

In Planning
continued

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

projected
completion

Office building projects name

location

SGA

Marketing scheme

status development

continuation
oUTSIDE CBD EXCLUDING TB SIMATUPANG
2016

BKP Office Tower

Sunter

16,000

For Lease

2016

Tamansari Parama

Wahid Hasyim

10,800 For Sale

In Planning

2017

L'Office

Pasar Minggu

41,597

Under Construction

2017

Ciputra Business District Kemayoran Tower 1

Kemayoran

40,000 For Sale

For Sale

In Planning

In Planning

2017

Ciputra Business District Kemayoran Tower 2

Kemayoran

40,000 For Lease

In Planning

2017

Ciputra International Puri 1 Phase 1

Puri

15,000

For Lease

In Planning

2017

Ciputra International Puri 2 Phase 1

Puri

20,000 For Lease

In Planning

2017

Ciputra International Puri 3 Phase 1

Puri

30,000 For Lease

In Planning

2018

Kota Kasablanka Office Tower 2

Casablanca

90,000 For Lease

In Planning

2018

Ciputra International Puri Phase 2

Puri

15,000

For Lease

In Planning

2018

Ciputra International Puri 1 Phase 3

Puri

15,000

For Lease

In Planning

2018

Ciputra Internatinal Puri 2 Phase 3

Puri

15,000

For Lease

In Planning

2018

Summarecon Tower

Slipi

70,000 For Lease

In Planning

TB SIMATUPANG

2015

Graha MRA

13,000

For Lease

Under Construction

2015

Plaza Oleos

39,778

For Lease & Sale

Under Construction

2015

18 Office Park (Cityland Tower)

40,000 For Sale

Under Construction

2015

AD Premier

18,900

For Lease

Under Construction

2015

Metropolitan Tower

44,000

For Lease & Sale

Under Construction

2015

South Quarter Tower 1

40,778

For Sale

Under Construction

2015

South Quarter Tower 2

40,778

For Lease

Under Construction

2016

South Quarter Tower 3

40,778

For Lease

Under Construction

2016

Zuria

6,584

For Lease

Under Construction

2016

Cibis Tower

60,800

For Lease

Under Construction

2017

Beltway Office Park Tower 4

30,839

For Lease

Under Construction

2017

The Sima

60,000 For Lease

Under Construction

2017

The Manhattan Square Tower 2

39,375

In Planning

2017

Arkadia Tower G

30,000 For Lease

For Lease & Sale

In Planning

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Demand and Occupancy

Despite being down more than 1% YoY, occupancy saw a


moderate increase QoQ. The election and the slowing economy
have had a big impact on office demand in the CBD, especially
from the end of 2013 to mid-2014. Some potential tenants
preferred to wait and see and hold their expansion plans.
Fortunately, the election ran smoothly and office demand began
rising, albeit modestly.

CBD
CBD
2013
96.5%

YoY

2014
95.7%

QoQ

3Q 2014
95.4%

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Since it was at 97.2% in 2012, the highest on record in the CBD,


the occupancy continued slumping to 95.4% in 2014. YoY, the
occupancy was down 1.1%.

During 2014, some office buildings experienced declining


performance QoQ and there was more than 2,000 sq m of vacant
space remaining. In a certain case, we noted that declining
performance of an office building was caused by relocating
tenants due to a change in ownership. Two examples of relocating
large spaces of tenants in 2014 were recorded at office buildings
in Gatot Subroto and Sudirman. Another office building in
Sudirman also will relocate their tenants due to the landlord
demolishing and redeveloping the existing office building.

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

Decreasing performance occurred at higher grade office


buildings as well as at older buildings. That is why the occupancy
at Premium and Grade A office buildings in the CBD, which
was 95.9%, was also down 0.9% YoY. However, again, demand
for Grade A and Premium office buildings began rising QoQ,
although moderately.

Commitment Demand for Future Office Buildings in


the CBD
2018F

Space Absorbed and Occupancy in the CBD

sq m

2017F
5,000,000

100%

4,500,000

90%

4,000,000

80%

3,500,000

70%

3,000,000

60%

2,500,000

50%

2,000,000

40%

1,500,000

30%

1,000,000

20%

500,000

10%

0%
2010

2011

Space Absorbed

2012

2013

Vacant Space

2014
Occupancy

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Occupancy Based on Building Grade in the CBD


100%

2016F

2015F

150,000

300,000

450,000

Space Absorbed

600,000

Vacant Space

750,000
sq m

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

With around 600,000 sq m of average annual supply per year


during 2015 - 2018, absorption at future office buildings will be
challenging. This is due to the existing annual demand in the
CBD of 200,000 - 250,000 sq m since 2008. However, as of 2014,
commitment to occupancy at future office buildings in 2015
has reached 47.2%. This committed demand optimistically will
bolster confidence in maintaining occupancy at a healthy level
at least in 2015, although it is likely to drop modestly compared
to occupancy in 2014.

98%

Outside CBD

96%
94%

A similar trend was seen in the Outside CBD. Large additional


supply has brought the occupancy down 2.1% YoY to 93.2% as
of 2014. In 2014, occupancy was continuously down QoQ before
rising again in 4Q 2014, although moderately.

92%
90%
88%
86%
84%
82%
80%
2010
Premium

2011

2012

Grade A

2013
Grade B

2014

YoY, some office buildings in the Outside CBD still had vacant
space of around 1,000 - 2,300 sq m. Most of them are old office
buildings. Newly operating office buildings have contributed
to maintaining healthy occupancy together with some existing
office buildings that have recorded new absorption of around
1,000 - 2,000 sq m during 2014.

Grade C

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

All building grades saw an increasing trend of occupancy in 2012


when annual demand reached almost 400,000 sq m. Grade B
and C office buildings saw fluctuations in 2013 and 2014. On the
contrary, Grade A and Premium office buildings experienced a
continuous downward trend in 2013 - 2014. High asking base
rent is also a reason for the large vacant spaces remaining at
Premium and Grade A office buildings in 2014.

10 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

Space Absorbed and Occupancy in the Outside CBD


2,500,000

100%
90%

2,000,000

80%
70%
60%

sq m

1,500,000

Similar to the CBD, the Outside CBD will face large supply,
which will affect the projected occupancy in 2015 - 2018. As of
4Q 2014, the commitment to occupancy at future office buildings
in 2015 is 23.9%. By remaining a year ahead and providing good
office buildings, it is expected that the occupancy will continue
increasing.

Commitment Demand for Future Office Buildings in


the Outside CBD

50%
1,000,000

40%

2018F

30%
500,000

20%
10%

2017F

0%
2010

2011

Space Absorbed

2012

2013

Vacant Space

2014
Occupancy

2016F

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Occupancy Based on Area in the Outside CBD

2015F

100%

50,000

98%

100,000

150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Space Absorbed

96%

Vacant Space

sq m

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

94%
92%

TB Simatupang

90%

Space Absorbed and Occupancy in TB Simatupang

88%
86%
84%

2018F

82%
80%
2010

2011

2012

Central Jakarta

South Jakarta

East Jakarta

West Jakarta

2013

2014
North Jakarta

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

With limited additional supply, the occupancy of office buildings


in Central and East Jakarta was steady. Conversely, West and
North Jakarta saw significantly decreasing occupancy YoY. Newly
operating office buildings in 2014 located in West Jakarta caused
the occupancy to drop 7.4% YoY. However, as a potential business
area connected by a toll road, West Jakarta is expected to grow
with more tenants from consumer goods, freight forwarding,
shipping and finance business lines.

2017F

2016F

2015F

50,000

100,000

150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Space Absorbed
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

11 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

Vacant Space

sq m

Good absorption has kept the occupancy rate in South Jakarta


above 90% despite also decreasing moderately YoY. High
occupancy in South Jakarta was supported by demand in TB
Simatupang. As of 2014, the occupancy in TB Simatupang was
92.8%. Manhattan Square and Palma Tower also helped the
occupancy climb significantly by 6.8% QoQ. Historically, the
occupancy in TB Simatupang has also remained above 90%
since 2003. Office buildings in TB Simatupang will face tough
competition in 2015 in achieving a good absorption rate. This is
due to TB Simatupang, which will have a large additional supply
(237,234 sq m) in 2015, while the committed demand for that
year is 37.9% as of 2014.

Commitment Demand for Future Office Buildings in


TB Simatupang

Slowing demand caused some office buildings charging in


both rupiah and US dollars to lower their base rents by 10 20%. Premium and Grade A office buildings also contributed
to restraining the growth of average base rents in the CBD. This
is due to some Premium and Grade A office buildings lowering
their base rents by 10 - 25% YoY. As of 2014, the average base rent
for Premium office buildings in the CBD was USD49.14/sq m/
month. The previous year, rent at Premium office buildings was
USD50.72/sq m/month.

Average Asking Rental Rates in the CBD


in Rupiah
IDR 300,000

IDR 250,000
2018F
IDR 200,000
2017F

IDR 150,000

IDR 100,000

2016F

IDR 50,000
2015F
IDR 0
2010
0

50,000

100,000

2011

2012

2013

2014

150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000

Space Absorbed

Space Unabsorbed

sq m

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

in US Dollar

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

USD 60

Asking Base Rent


CBD
The average asking base rent in the CBD continued its upward
trend over the last three years and only softened modestly during
2014. Office buildings charging in rupiah registered an average
of IDR252,905/sq m/month as of 2014, up 10.9% YoY. YoY, the
growth of asking base rents in 2014 was far lower than in 2011 2013 when it was 33% each year.
The asking rents in US dollars showed lower growth YoY than
the rents in rupiah. Office buildings charging in US dollars
experienced the largest increase in rent in 2012 almost 50%
YoY. Limited additional supply in 2013 and then 2014, should
have a positive impact on base rent increases. Conversely,
growth continuously weakened and was only 6.9% YoY, bringing
the base rent to USD36.84/sq m/month in 2014.

USD 55
USD 50
USD 45
USD 40
USD 35
USD 30
USD 25
USD 20
USD 15
USD 10
USD 5
USD 0
2010

2011

2012

All Class
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

12 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

2013

Premium

2014

Asking Base Rent Based on Grade

On the contrary, the gap between office buildings charging in


US dollars in TB Simatupang and other areas started widening
in 2013. Some adjustments at office buildings in other areas
excluding TB Simatupang caused the base rent to decline by
3.6% YoY to USD18.23/sq m/month as of 2014. The base rent for
office buildings charging in US dollars in TB Simatupang was
steady at USD21.00/sq m/month.

in Rupiah
IDR 600,000
IDR 550,000
IDR 500,000

Average Asking Rental Rates in the Outside CBD

IDR 450,000
IDR 400,000

in Rupiah

IDR 350,000
IDR 300,000

IDR 200,000

IDR 250,000

IDR 180,000

IDR 200,000

IDR 160,000

IDR 150,000

IDR 140,000

IDR 100,000

IDR 120,000

IDR 50,000

IDR 100,000

IDR 0
Grade A

Grade B

Grade C

IDR 80,000
IDR 60,000

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

IDR 40,000
IDR 20,000

in US Dollar

IDR 0

USD 75.00

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

USD 70.00
Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang

USD 65.00
USD 60.00

TB Simatupang

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

USD 55.00
USD 50.00

in US Dollar

USD 45.00
USD 40.00

USD 30.00

USD 35.00
USD 30.00

USD 27.00

USD 25.00

USD 24.00

USD 20.00

USD 21.00

USD 15.00
USD 10.00

USD 18.00

USD 5.00

USD 15.00

USD 0.00
Premium

Grade A

Grade B

Grade C

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Outside CBD
Since 2012, the average asking base rent in TB Simatupang was
higher than other areas in the Outside CBD. However, based on
available spaces, newly operating office buildings have closed
the gap between base rent in TB Simatupang and other areas. As
of 2014, the average base rent in TB Simatupang was IDR163,068/
sq m/month, and IDR155,402/sq m/month in the other areas.
Based on available spaces, in addition to South Jakarta, which
recorded an increase in rent by 21.3% YoY, the average asking
base rent in West Jakarta rose most significantly by 43.1% YoY.

USD 12.00
USD 9.00
USD 6.00
USD 3.00
USD 0.00
2010

2011

2012

Outside CBD excluding TB Simatupang


Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

13 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

2013

2014

TB Simatupang

Service Charge
Service charges in the CBD range between IDR20,000 and
120,000/sq m/month as of 2014. However, there are two types
of tenants who have to pay their service charges, especially for
electricity, i.e. electricy tariff is already included in the service
charge costs and electricity tariff is charged using a separate
meter. As of 2014, around 30% of all office buildings in the CBD
charged below IDR70,000/sq m/month because they were
using a separate meter for electricity. Those office buildings
recorded an average service charge of IDR48,851/sq m/month.
About 51% are office buildings with service charges between
IDR70,000 and 120,000/sq m/month already include electricity.
These office buildings recorded an average service charge of
IDR88,910/sq m/month.
In the Outside CBD, the average service charge including
electricity cost was IDR76,628/sq m/month as of 2014. These
are office buildings located in the TB Simatupang Thoroughfare.
Service charges of office buildings using a separate meter in the
Outside CBD were IDR49,554/sq m/month.

Service Charges of Office Buildings in Jakarta

Strata-title Office
CBD
Again, with no new office buildings for sale is in operation in 2014,
the total supply of strata-title offices, as of 2014, was 901,169 sq m,
which represents 18.9% of the total supply in the CBD. However,
it is expected that in 2015 - 2018, the future supply of offices for
sale (strata-title offices) will increase significantly in the CBD.
In addition to Gran Rubina, Sahid Sudirman seemingly will be
ready to begin operations in 2015. Based on space, 688,360 sq m
of the future total supply of offices for sale will be on the market
during 2016 - 2017.
With a limited supply of offices for sale since last year, the takeup rate was steady at 99% during 2013 - 2014 and is projected to
remain the same in 2015. This is due to two future office buildings
for sale in 2015 that have achieved 86% committed take-up rates
as of 2014. In addition to 2015, future offices for sale in 2016 2017 have also achieved high commitments to occupancy.
Limited vacant space also caused the asking prices to continue
soaring. As of 2014, the average price for offices charging in
rupiah was IDR52.7 million/sq m, and USD4,260/sq m for those
charging in US dollars.

Committed Demand of Future Offices for Sale


in the CBD

Using Separated Meter

2017F

Including Electricity Tariff


2016F

IDR 0

IDR 50,000

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

IDR 100,000 IDR 150,000


2015F

100,000

200,000

Space Absorbed
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

14 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

300,000
Vacant Space

400,000
sq m

Average Asking Prices in Jakarta

Outside CBD
During 2014, the Outside CBD area provided more strata-title
offices for sale than the CBD. Three office buildings for sale
were in operation in 2014, namely Green Kosmo Mansion, The
Manhattan Square and GP Plaza. GP Plaza is the latest office
building that began operation since 2014 and is located in Slipi,
West Jakarta. This office building provides small office spaces for
sale, which are integrated into an apartment development.
With the influx of new additional strata-title office buildings, the
take-up rate of offices for sale in the Outside CBD remained high
and was 93.6% in 2014. It is expected that a large future supply will
come in 2015 - 2016 in the Outside CBD and will have an effect
on the projected take-up rate. However, by achieving 74 and 64%
of pre-committed absorption in 2014 and 2015, respectively, the
projected take-up rate is expected to continue to rise in 2015.
TB Simatupang has become the greatest contributor of demand
for strata-title offices in the Outside CBD. As of 2014, almost 70%
of 161,377 sq m of total future offices for sale in TB Simatupang in
2014 - 2015 has been absorbed.

Committed Demand for Future Offices for Sale


in the Outside CBD

IDR 60,000,000
IDR 50,000,000
IDR 40,000,000
IDR 30,000,000
IDR 20,000,000
IDR 10,000,000
IDR 0
2010
CBD

2011

2012

Outside CBD exclude TB Simatupang

2013

2014
TB Simatupang

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Concluding Thoughts
The first semester of 2015 will be a crucial period for predicting
the atmosphere and performance of the office market in 2015.
Most of the total future office supply in 2015 is expected to begin
operation in the second semester of 2015, therefore the office
market should avoid any obstacles in the first semester, which
will generally be highlighted by sound space absorption, and
will help reduce the large amount of vacant space that will be
available in 2015. Such ideal conditions will most likely motivate
landlords to seize the occasion to increase rents.

2017F

2016F

2015F

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000


sq m
Space Absorbed

Vacant Space

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

The asking prices in the Outside CBD also rose significantly by


31% YoY. Strata-title offices for sale in TB Simatupang are the
main contributor to the increase. As of 2014, the average price for
strata-title offices in the Outside CBD (excluding TB Simatupang)
was IDR27.5 million/sq m, while in TB Simatupang, it was
IDR28.3 million/sq m. Other strata-title office buildings located
in TB Simatupang that quote prices in US dollars registered an
average of USD3,500/sq m as of 2014 based on available spaces.

The new government has been consistently strict in issuing


development permits (Indonesian term: Izin Mendirikan
Bangunan or IMB). Developers need to make sure that all
permits are sorted out before commencing construction. In some
cases, this process might take some time, which in certain cases
has somewhat prolonged the development process. Another
challenge, but a positive one, is the promotion of better law
enforcement, with a very high fine for any breach of the permit
process.
In anticipation of the large future supply over the next few years,
certain landlords are becoming more flexible. In such a tight
and competitive market, some landlords are more cooperative
with property agents in bringing more tenants and reducing
the vacancy level. Another option being tested in this tenants
market is providing a fitting-out allowance during construction
and this is likely to be implemented soon. Meanwhile, giving a
substantial rent discount to big-name tenants is common in this
current market.

15 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

Apartment Sector
Apartment for Strata-title
Supply
Entering the last quarter of 2014, the Jakarta apartment market
remained upbeat, evidenced by the number of units launched
this quarter that outstripped the number of units launched
in the last three consecutive quarters. A large number of
developers generally had a positive perception of apartment
market performance during the post-election period. They
continued to introduce new projects targeting various market
segments. Between October and December, eight new stratatitle apartment projects were introduced in Jakarta, bringing a
total of 4,454 units to the market. The volume of newly launched/
introduced apartments almost tripled from 1,319 in 3Q 2014
to 4,454 units this quarter. Some of these were the extensions
(additional towers) of operating projects such as Sentra Timur
Residence (Tower Brown) and Ciputra International Puri Indah
(Tower Barcelona). The other six are brand new developments
like Grand Dhika Mansion Pejaten (Sector I), 45 Antasari, Selatan
8 (Tower Sultan), Sahid Garden Residence, Arzuria Apartments
and Jaya Ancol Seafront (Tower Oceana).

Newly Introduce Apartment Units in Every Quarter


of 2013 - 2014
10,000
9,000
8,000

units

7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1Q
2013

2Q
2013

3Q
2013

4Q
2013

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

16 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Apartment | Colliers International

1Q
2014

2Q
2014

3Q
2014

4Q
2014

Newly Introduces Projecs During 4Q 2014


development

region

asking price
(idr/sq m)

YOP

location

Developer

No. of Units

Grand Dhika Mansion Pejaten (Sector 1)

2015

Jl. Siaga Raya

South Jakarta

27 million

PT. Adhi Persada Property

Selatan 8 (Tower Sultan)

2017

Kebayoran Lama

South Jakarta

17 million

Karya Cipta Group

44
336

Sentra Timur Residence (Tower Brown)

2017

Pulo Gebang

East Jakarta

11 million

Bakrieland Development

45 Antasari (2 towers)

2018

Antasari

South Jakarta

38 million

Cowwel Development

605

Sahid Garden Residence

2018

Ciracas

East Jakarta

15 million

Sahid Group

Arzuria Apartments

2018

Jl. Tendean

South Jakarta

27 million

Tolaram Group

210

Jaya Ancol Seafront - Oceana Tower

2018

Ancol

North Jakarta

17 million

Jaya Ancol

524

Ciputra International Puri Indah (Tower


Barcelona)

2018

Puri Indah

West Jakarta

27 million

Ciputra

335

1,924
476

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Eight projects comprising 3,806 units were completed during


4Q 2014. South Jakarta remained the most active area, providing
three new apartment projects, The Bellevue at Pondok Indah,
The Aspen Admiralty, and Woodland Park (Tower Cendana).
Other areas, like Central and North Jakarta saw the operation
of two projects, The Royal Springhill and Pasar Baru Mansion,
located in Kemayoran and Pasar Baru areas, respectively.

Tifolia Apartments and Gading Greenhill are situated in a


neighbouring area in Kelapa Gading District. East and West
Jakarta contribute one project each, Sentra Timur Residence
(Tower Ruby) and Green Central City (Tower Cerberra),
respectively. All of those additional units brought the total stock
of Jakarta strata-title apartments to 143,045, an increase of 2.4%
over the previous quarter.

List of Completed Projecs During 4Q 2014


development

location

region

Developer

No. of Units

The Royal Springhill (Tower Lavender)

Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran

Central Jakarta

Springhill Golf Group

128

Pasar Baru Mansion

Jl. Pasar Baru

Central Jakarta

PT. Trikarya Idea Sakti

520

Sentra Timur Residence (Tower Ruby)

Jl. Raya Cakung Timur

East Jakarta

Bakriland Development

420

Tifolia Apartment

Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan

North Jakarta

Duta Anggada Realty

500

Gading Greenhill

Jl. Pegangsaan Dua Raya

North Jakarta

Gading Selaras

700

The Aspen at Admiralty

Jl. Fatmawati

South Jakarta

PT. Harmas Jalasveva

860

Woodland Park (Tower Cendana)

Jl. Pahlawan Kalibata

South Jakarta

Group Kalibata

218

The Bellevue at Pondok Indah

Jl H. Nawi No. 1 Pondok Indah

South Jakarta

Gapura Prima

40

Green Central (Tower Cerberra)

Jl. Gajah Mada

West Jakarta

PT. Bumi Perkasa Permai

420
Total

3,806

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Overall, the total annual apartment supply in 2014 consisted


of 27 projects with 10,701 units. This number represents 51% of
our earlier projection in December 2013, when we previously
projected that a total of 20,899 strata-title apartment units would
be commenced in 2014. Some of the projects scheduled to be
finished in 2014 were delayed because they were still doing
finishing work and will only be done in early 2015. Nevertheless,
the situation was still acceptable because developers had
included a grace period of six months in the contract that
allows them to delay the hand-over without having to bear any
financial compensation or legal obligation. As a result, the 49%
of the remaining or 10,188 units will be added to 2015 for a total
potential supply of 28,838.

About 37% or 3,938 units of the total supply in 2014 were still
dominated by apartment projects located in South Jakarta,
followed by Central Jakarta with 27% or 2,940 units. Various
classes of apartment projects had entered the market which were
largely supplied by low to middle-up class apartments, mostly
located in non-prime areas, including East, North, West and
Central Jakarta. On the other hand, six projects catering to the
upper market segment are mainly located in South Jakarta and
the CBD.

17 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Apartment | Colliers International

List of All New Apartment Projects in 2014


development

location

region

Developer

No. of Units

Ambassade Residence Tower A

Jl. Puri Denpasar

CBD

PT Duta Regency

234

MyHome Apartment at Ciputra World

Jl. Prof Dr Satrio

CBD

PT Ciputra Property Tbk

136

Verde Apartment (Tower East)

Jl. HR. Rasuna Said

CBD

Farpoint Realty

Pasar Baru Mansion

Jl. Pasar Baru

Central Jakarta

PT Trikarya Idea Sakti

The Green Pramuka (Tower Chrysant)

Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani

Central Jakarta

PT Duta Paramindo

1,000

The Green Pramuka (Tower Bougenville)

Jl. Jenderal Ahmad Yani

Central Jakarta

PT Duta Paramindo

1,000

The Royal Springhill (Tower Lavender)

Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran

Central Jakarta

Springhill Golf Group

128
420

114
520

Sentra Timur Residence (Tower Ruby)

Jl. Raya Cakung Timur

East Jakarta

Bakrieland Development

Sentra Timur Residence (Tower Orange)

Jl. Pulo Gebang

East Jakarta

Bakrieland Development

390

The Hive @ Tamansari

Jl. DI Panjaitan

East Jakarta

Wika Realty

422

Sherwood Residence (Tower Wellington)

Kelapa Gading

North Jakarta

Summarecon

100

Sherwood Residence (Tower Regent)

Kelapa Gading

North Jakarta

Summarecon

100

Tifolia Apartment

Jl. Perintis Kemerdekaan

North Jakarta

Duta Anggada Realty

500

Gading Greenhill

Jl. Pegangsaan Dua Raya

North Jakarta

Gading Selaras

700

Kemang Village (Tower The Intercon)

Jl. P Antasari

South Jakarta

Lippo Karawaci

400

Kemang Village (Tower The Infinity)

Jl. P Antasari

South Jakarta

Lippo Karawaci

175

The East at Essence Dharmawangsa

Jl. Dharmawangsa X

South Jakarta

PT Prakarsa Semesta Alam

244

The Aspen at Admiralty

Jl. Fatmawati

South Jakarta

PT Harmas Jalasveva

860

Woodland Park (Tower Cendana)

Jl. Pahlawan Kalibata

South Jakarta

PT Pardika Wisthi Sarana

218

Pakubuwono Terrace (Tower North)

Jl. Kebayoran Lama

South Jakarta

PT Selaras Mitra Sejati

750

Pakubuwono Terrace (Tower South)

Jl. Kebayoran Lama

South Jakarta

PT Selaras Mitra Sejati

720

The Pakubuwono Signature

Jl. Teuku Nyak Syarief

South Jakarta

PT Mandiri Eka Abadi

188

Woodland Park (Tower Matoa)

Jl. Pahlawan Kalibata

South Jakarta

PT Pardika Wisthi Sarana

221

The Bellevue at Pondok Indah

Jl H. Nawi No. 1

South Jakarta

Gapura Prima

Green Central City (Tower Cerberra)

Jl. Gajah Mada

West Jakarta

PT Bumi Perkasa Permai

The Windsor (Tower I)

Jl. Puri Indah

West Jakarta

PT Antilope Madju Puri Indah

176

Sky Terrace Lagoon

Jl. Tampak Siring, Kalideres

West Jakarta

Fajar Surya Perkasa

525

40
420

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Analysis of Apartment Market in 2015 - 2016


We anticipate further supply growth from 2015 to 2016 with
an additional 47,269 units (of which 22% are scheduled to
be on the market in 2016). Most future apartments will be
concentrated in the areas outside of the CBD, such as Central
Jakarta (the areas that are not part of the CBD like Kemayoran,
Salemba or Cempaka Putih), East Jakarta, and North Jakarta.
The largest amount of supply will come from Central Jakarta,
targeted at young families and workers, taking advantage

18

of the proximity to the downtown and commercial area, where


there are malls, business district and offices. Benefitting from the
strategic location and easy access to public transport, the leasing
market has the potential to be robust. Being a very active market
location, South Jakarta continues to witness plenty of apartment
projects in the pipeline for the next two years with a total of 25
projects consisting of 7,462 units.

Future Supply (2015 - 2016) Based on No. of Units


West
Jakarta
18%

CBD
5%

East
Jakarta
19%
North
Jakarta
20%

Future Supply (2015 - 2016) Based on No. of Units


West
Jakarta
18%

Central
Jakarta
21%

CBD
10%

East
Jakarta
12%

South
Jakarta
17%

North
Jakarta
12%

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research


Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Central
Jakarta
20%

South
Jakarta
28%

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

New Supply Pipeline (2015 - 2017)


Apartment name

location

region

no. of units

2015
The Grove (Empyreal + Masterpiece)

Rasuna Said

CBD

438

Ciputra World - Luxurious Raffles Residences

Satrio

CBD

64

The Residence (CWJ 2)

Satrio

CBD

119

The Orchad Satrio (CWJ 2)

Satrio

CBD

349
426

Setiabudi Sky Garden (tower 1)

Setiabudi

CBD

Setiabudi Sky Garden (tower 2)

Setiabudi

CBD

160

The Suite (W Hotel Tower)

Satrio

CBD

120

Elpis Rotterdam Residence

Gunung Sahari

Central Jakarta

791

Capitol Park Apartment (Tower T)

Salemba

Central Jakarta

727

Capitol Park Apartment (Tower U)

Salemba

Central Jakarta

976

Menteng Park

Cikini

Central Jakarta

756

The Grreen Pramuka (Tower Orchid)

Pramuka

Central Jakarta

1,000

The Grreen Pramuka (Tower Penelope)

Pramuka

Central Jakarta

1,000

The H Residence Kemayoran (Amethyst)

Kemayoran

Central Jakarta

800

The Royal Springhill (Lotus Tower)

Springhill, Kemayoran

Central Jakarta

192

The Royal Springhill (Bouvardia Tower)

Springhill, Kemayoran

Central Jakarta

192

Menteng Park

Cikini

Central Jakarta

756

The Mansion at Dukuh Golf Residence (Aurora Tower)

Kemayoran

Central Jakarta

522

The Mansion at Dukuh Golf Residence (BellaVista Tower)

Kemayoran

Central Jakarta

612

Titanium Square

Pasar Rebo

East Jakarta

725

Casablanca East Residence (Tower Dallas and Casablanca)

Duren Sawit

East Jakarta

1,000

The H Residence

MT Haryono

East Jakarta

383

Bassura City (Tower Alamanda)

Jl. Basuki Rahmat

East Jakarta

600

Callia Apartment

Perintis Kemerdekaan

North Jakarta

560

The Oak Tower (2 Towers)

Perintis Kemerdekaan

North Jakarta

821

Northern Ancol Residence

Ancol

North Jakarta

800

Green Bay Pluit (Sea View)

Pluit

North Jakarta

2,072
1,100

Teluk Intan (Tower Saphire)

Teluk Gong

North Jakarta

La Venue - South Tower

Pasar Minggu

South Jakarta

341
continued

19 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Office | Colliers International

Apartment name

location

region

no. of units
continuation

Kemang Village (The Bloomington)

Kemang

South Jakarta

150

The Royal Olive Residence {Tower I)

Buncit Raya

South Jakarta

225

Senopati Suites 2

Senopati

South Jakarta

81

LA City Apartment (Tower A)

Lenteng Agung

South Jakarta

980

La Maison Barito (Tower 1)

Barito

South Jakarta

80

Botanica Apartment (3 Towers)

Simprug, Kebayoran Baru

South Jakarta

626

Woodland Park (Trambesi tower)

Kalibata

South Jakarta

221

1 Park Avenue (3 Towers)

Kebayoran Baru

South Jakarta

279

Nine Residence

Warung Buncit

South Jakarta

246

Providence Park

Permata Hijau

South Jakarta

114

Kencana Residence

Pondok Indah

South Jakarta

173

Izzara Apartment (South and North Tower)

TB. Simatupang

South Jakarta

542

Niffaro Apartment (Ebony Tower)

Pasar Minggu

South Jakarta

288

Lexington Rersidence (Tower 1)

Pondok Pinang

South Jakarta

270

Lexington Rersidence (Tower 2)

Pondok Pinang

South Jakarta

270

The Aspen Peak at Admiralty

Fatmawati

South Jakarta

644

Grand Dhika Mansion Pejaten (Sector 1)

Pejaten

South Jakarta

44

19 Avenue Apartment

Daan Mogot

West Jakarta

338

Green Palm Residence @ Puri

Kosambi

West Jakarta

1,000

The Windsor (Tower II)

Puri Indah

West Jakarta

164

Metro Park Residence

Kebon Jeruk

West Jakarta

1,451

St. Moritz (New Presidential Tower)

Puri Indah

West Jakarta

150

Satu8 Residence

Kedoya

West Jakarta

174

The Nest Apartment

Meruya Utara

West Jakarta

1,100

Point 8 (Air Crew Tower)

Daan Mogot

West Jakarta

546

Gallery West

Kebon Jeruk

West Jakarta

280

Sudirman Suites

Sudirman

CBD

380

Gayanti City (2 Towers)

Jl. Gatot Subroto

CBD

318

T - Plaza Residence (Tower A)

Jl. Penjernihan I Kav.1 Pejompongan

Central Jakarta

307

Sentosa Residence

Cempaka Putih

Central Jakarta

687

Sudirman Hill Residence

Jl. Karet Pasar Baru

Central Jakarta

255

Capitol Suites

Jl. Prapatan Raya

Central Jakarta

327

The Royal Springhill (Bulgari Tower)

Jl. Spring Hill Residence Kemayoran

Central Jakarta

192

The Green Pramuka (Tower Scarlet)

Pramuka

Central Jakarta

1,000

Holland Village (Phase II)

Cempaka Putih

Central Jakarta

Signature Park Grande

Jl. MT. Haryono

East Jakarta

East Park Apartment (Tower C)

Jl. KRT Radjiman

East Jakarta

550

Green Signature Apartment

MT. Haryono

East Jakarta

800

2016

230
1,100

Bassura City (Tower Flamboyan)

Jl. Basuki Rahmat

East Jakarta

1,000

Bassura City (Tower Edelweiss)

Jl. Basuki Rahmat

East Jakarta

1,000

Bassura City (Tower Dahlia)

Jl. Basuki Rahmat

East Jakarta

1,000

Bassura City (Tower Cattleya)

Jl. Basuki Rahmat

East Jakarta

600

Marina The Coastal

Ancol

North Jakarta

1,500

Gold Coast Apartment (Atlantic Tower)

Pantai Indah Kapuk

North Jakarta

568
continued

20 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Apartment | Colliers International

Apartment name

location

region

no. of units
continuation

Pluit Seaview (Tower Maldives)

Pluit

North Jakarta

940

Pluit Seaview (Tower Belize)

Pluit

North Jakarta

300

La Venue - North Tower

Jl. Pasar Minggu

South Jakarta

253

Senopati Suites 3

Jl. Senopati

South Jakarta

54

Pakubuwono Terrace Grand Tower

Kebayoran Lama

South Jakarta

435

Apartment Pejaten Park Residence

Jl. Warung Buncit Raya No.21

South Jakarta

560

Four Winds

Jl. Permata Hijau Raya No.1

South Jakarta

122

Bellevue Place

MT Haryono, Tebet

South Jakarta

208

Kebayoran Icon

Jl. Ciledug Raya

South Jakarta

256

Belmont Residence (TowerAthena)

Jl. Meruya Ilir

West Jakarta

165

Puri Mansion Apartment (Tower A)

Puri Mansion

West Jakarta

900
1,200

Madison Park

Tanjung Duren

West Jakarta

Veranda

Jl. Pesanggrahan Raya, Kembangan

West Jakarta

174

St Moritz (The New Ambassador Suite Tower)

Jl. Puri Indah Kembangan

West Jakarta

200

Belmont Residence (Tower Montblanc)

Meruya Ilir

West Jakarta

350

Gianetti Apartment

Kemanggisan

West Jakarta

500

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Demand
During the last quarter of 2014, the overall take-up rate of the
Jakarta apartment market increased modestly from 86.6 to 87.0%
compared to the previous quarter. This figure represents the
absorption of all existing and under-construction projects. On
an annual basis, the take-up rate of existing projects suggests
an upward trend in the future. On the other hand, the takeup rate of the future projects (including under construction
and newly introduced projects) experienced a modest drop
in 2014. The Jakarta apartment market, particularly the future
projects (under construction and newly introduced projects),
saw demand softening as indicated by a lower take-up rate
compared to the previous years performance. The condition was
also influenced by the weakening of the economy as well as the
continued increase in the interest rate and new LTV regulation in
late 2013. In addition, the general election more or less triggered
a downbeat sentiment among potential buyers and investors,
particularly in the first semester of 2014. Overall, the cumulative
take-up rate of existing projects in 2014 has reached 95.6%,
leaving only 6,475 units vacant, while the take-up rate of future
projects reached 72.1%.

Take-up Rate Trend Between Existing and Future


Projects
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010

2011

2012

Existing

2013

2014

Future

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

The CBD area maintained the highest take-up rate of all regions,
with an average of 97.5%. This figure suggests a 2.2% increase
from the previous quarter as a result of continued absorption in
both the existing and under construction projects. The healthy
performance also occurred in South Jakarta, which posted a
upward trend both QoQ and YoY, by 1.4 and 3.7%, respectively.

21 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Apartment | Colliers International

91.20%

92.60%

1.40%

3.70%

83.10%

83.60%

83.40%

-0.20%

0.30%

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Bank Indonesia, the Central Bank, decided to increase the


benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 7.75% in November 2014,
in response to the new governments fuel subsidy reform policy.
For the short term, it is expected that the slowing down of
demand is likely to continue, particularly in the primary market.
However, assuming that economic conditions improve and the
political situation is stable in the upcoming years, apartment
sales are envisaged to gradually improve in the long term. Hence,
the overall take-up rate is anticipated to stabilise within a short
period before gradually increasing. Overall, strong interest from
both end-users and investors has driven demand for new and offplan apartments over the past few years. Apartments in the inner
city close to train stations, shopping centres, universities and
business hubs are the property of choice for these buyers. The
Indonesian property market is primarily a domestic play driven by
the strength of the local economy, particularly because foreigners
are not allowed to buy apartments in this country. Based on the
latest data from the office of Statistics Bureau (BPS), almost 70%
of Indonesias population is in the working age group of 15 to 64
years. Among the working population, the majority (42.3%) are
between the ages of 25 and 54. People in this group are vital to
the economy due to their strong earning and purchasing power.

3.10%

4Q 2012 vs 4Q 2013

11.90%

4Q 2013 vs 4Q 2014

21.10%

16.90%

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Average Asking Price of Strata-title Apartment in


Jakarta
IDR 30,000,000
IDR 25,000,000
IDR 20,000,000
IDR 15,000,000
IDR 10,000,000
IDR 5,000,000
IDR 0

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

22 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Apartment | Colliers International

4Q 2014

88.90%

4Q 2011 vs 4Q 2012

3Q 2014 vs 4Q 2014

5.70%

3Q 2014

South Jakarta
Non-prime area

2Q 2014 vs 3Q 2014

4.70%

2Q 2014

0.40%

1Q 2014 vs 2Q 2014

1Q 2014

2.20%

YoY

4Q 2013

97.50%

QoQ

3Q 2013

95.30%

Change

2Q 2013

4Q 2014

1Q 2013

97.10%

3q 2014

Comparison of Average Growth Asking Prices of


Jakarta Apartment

3Q 2012

CBD

4Q 2013

Overall, this quarter still witnessed a climb in asking prices.


Between October and December 2014, prices grew by an
average of 3.1% QoQ or 16.9% YoY, putting the average asking
price at around IDR27.7 million/sq m. In the reviewed quarter,
asking prices in the Jakarta apartment market continued to
grow positively albeit at a slower pace compared to the last two
consecutive quarters.

4Q 2012

Area

Asking Price

1Q 2012

Average Take-up Rate Performance in Different


Locations

Some attractive payment methods are still being used in order


to attract more buyers during this challenging period, especially
after the implementation of the new LTV regulation last year.
Some of those methods are nil down payment without interest
rate, balloon payment or longer period of instalments that
have been acknowledged as attractive options for buyers to
whom access to a bank mortgage is limited. Moreover, several
promotional programmes offering various incentives, including
direct electronic prizes, air conditioners or kitchen sets, which
will be installed in the apartment, and city car.

2Q 2012

In contrast to the CBD and South Jakarta area, the nonprime areas, including Central, West, East and North Jakarta,
experienced sluggish performance due to the abundance
of newly introduced apartment projects that exceeded the
consistent absorption. This became the main factor affecting the
downswing of the take-up rate to 83.4% over the reviewed quarter.
The massive number of units from mid-low to lower apartment
projects created a more competitive market and curbed potential
growth of the take-up rate in the non-prime areas. On another
front, apartment projects that provide a better concept, good
building quality and design, and which are adjacent to public
facilities and developed by reputable developers, are expected
to generate sales in the upcoming quarters.

Together with 26.2% of the population aged below 15, Indonesia


has a huge pool of productive workers to draw upon over the
long term.

4Q 2011

High demand for apartments in the CBD and South Jakarta


area was driven mostly by investors who are quite optimistic
about business prospects in the coming years. This, in turn,
will potentially lead to the creation of more leasing demand,
especially from the expatriate market. Moreover, the growth
of the TB Simatupang area in South Jakarta, as a prominent
business location for many multinational companies, has
become a pull factor attracting investors to buy apartment units,
which contributed to the sound performance of apartment
projects located in the surrounding area.

In line with the demand, the growth of apartment prices in


Jakarta experienced sluggish performance over the reviewed
quarter. The slowdown in the economy, which is accompanied
by the rise in interest rates has led to lower sales performance,
thus putting a drag on the price increases, which in many cases
are driven by a developers decision. In addition, a bountiful
new development in the strata-title market has triggered more
market competition, which could lead to downward pressure on
price. However, the continued progress of construction activity
and strong absorption in particular projects located in premium
as well as strategic areas, became the determining factors of the
price to increase.
Overall, in terms of price growth, South Jakarta still has the
highest growth (YoY) among all areas. The accelerating price that
occurred in South Jakarta was largely driven by robust demand,
particularly at those on-going projects located in prime locations
and surrounding the TB Simatupang area. For instance, one
middle-class project that has not been launched yet, achieved
exceptionally high demand, with 50 - 60% absorption within
four months. Further, one upper-class project in a premium
area, Pondok Indah, achieved an 85% take-up rate within six
to seven months. On the other hand, price adjustments at
apartment projects in the CBD were driven by the continued
progress of construction and sales performance during this
reviewed quarter. Several middle- to upper-class apartment
projects located in good areas, like Ciputra International and
The Windsor in Puri Indah area, as well as Kensington Residence
in the Kelapa Gading area, introduced higher prices compared
to other projects while the massive development projects
maintained their current asking prices in order to attract buyers
amid the strong competition, especially in the middle- to lowclass apartment segment.

Apartment For Lease


Supply
This quarter saw additional supply from the serviced apartments,
Ascott Kuningan, which comprises 185 fully furnished 1- to
3-bedroom units. The Ascott Kuningan is strategically located
in Mega Kuningan and is part of the mixed-use development,
Ciputra World Jakarta I. This development will benefit from its
prime location in the business area and embassy district where
there is a sizeable expatriate community. With the completion of
this development, the cumulative supply of serviced apartments
at the end of 2014 rose gently by 3.9% QoQ to 4,954 units. The
non-serviced apartments (apartments purely for lease) remained
steady, with a total of 3,565 units.
Overall, as of 4Q 2014, the cumulative supply of apartments for
lease in Jakarta was recorded at 8,519, with 44.2% of the total stock
in the CBD. We expect to see an additional 640 serviced apartment
units enter the market during 2015 - 2016. However, this number
can change, particularly because serviced apartments called
Pejaten Park has not released the official information regarding
the operator and number of units. Based on information in the
marketing, there will be serviced apartments in the second tower
of Pejaten Park Residence (Tower Catalonia), on Levels 2 to 6.

Average Asking Price in Different Locations (in IDR)


Area

Change

4Q 2013

3q 2014

4Q 2014

CBD

36,174,524

41,759,611

43,472,842

4%

20%

South Jakarta

25,854,554

31,241,685

32,033,471

3%

24%

Non-Prime Area

18,298,766

20,320,645

20,764,022

2%

13%

QoQ

YoY

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Future Serviced Apartment Pipeline in 2015 - 2016


Name of development

year of
operation

location

Region

developer

no. of
units

TBS Linera Apartment Service

2015

Cilandak Barat

South Jakarta

Constructa Builder

110

Fraser Place Setiabudi Sky Garden (Tower III)

2015

Karbela Selatan

CBD

Jakarta Setiabudi International

150

Oakwood at District 8 Senopati

2016

Senopati

South Jakarta

Oakwood

180

Serviced Apartment at Pejaten Park Residence

2016

Warung Buncit

South Jakarta

Bahama Group

N/A

Fraser Suites at Ciputra World Jakarta II

2016

Satrio

CBD

Frasers Hospitality

200

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

23

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Apartment | Colliers International

Occupancy Rate for Apartment for Lease

Occupancy Rates
Be comparable to strata-title apartment, a quite similar trend
also occurred in the apartment for lease market, where leasing
demand softened during the last quarter of 2014. Lease expiry
and completed employment contracts (expatriates) are two
factors that have affected the declining occupancy rate. For
particular reason from some Japanese are thinking of moving
out from apartments for lease which is in most cases are standalone development to strata-title apartments which are part of
integrated developments with shopping center. The needs to be
around in the same community and to be in the proximity to
shopping facilities are reasons for Japanese expatriates to live in
strata-title apartments that offered for lease.

100%

Further, during the reviewed period, the occupancy level for nonserviced apartment declined modestly by less than 1% QoQ to
77.8%, while for serviced apartment it dropped by less than 2% to
70.2%. As shown in the table below, occupancy rate for serviced
apartment in the CBD experienced a significant decrease among
other areas, while for non-serviced apartment, occupancy rate
for non-prime areas area dropped by 1% compared to previous
quarter.

10%

The QoQ Occupancy Performance for Non-Serviced


Apartment
Area

3Q 2014

4Q 2014

QoQ change

CBD

84.6%

84.5%

-0.1%

South Jakarta

78.0%

77.1%

-0.9%

Non-Prime area

75.9%

74.9%

-1.0%

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Area

3Q 2014

4Q 2014

QoQ change

80.4%

78.7%

South Jakarta

75.7%

74.6%

-1.1%

Non-Prime area

52.2%

51.8%

-0.4%

Area

Occupancy

Performance

Lease

Change

3Q 2014

CBD

80.50%

82.30%

81.30%

-1.00%

0.8%

South Jakarta

78.70%

77.60%

76.60%

-1.00%

-2.0%

Non-prime Areas

71.90%

70.40%

69.60%

-0.80%

-2.4%

24

4Q 2014

for

4Q 2013

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%

0%
2011

2012
Non-Serviced

2013

2014
Serviced

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Besides the direct competition with the (individually owned)


strata-title apartment, the issue on the number of expatriates
would be another test for apartment for lease (both serviced
and non-serviced apartments) market. Based on information
released by Ministry of Manpower, YoY growth of expatriates
number show declining trend in the last three years.

Total Number of Expatriates in Indonesia


Total number of expatriates

2011

77,307

2012

72,427

2013

68,957

Source: Ministry of Manpower (2013)

-1.7%

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

The QoQ
Apartment

80%

Year

The QoQ Occupancy Performance for Serviced


Apartment
CBD

90%

QoQ

YoY

Average Rental Rates


The rental rates for serviced apartments in Jakarta experienced
a slight increase over the reviewed quarter. The trigger for
this quarter increase is due to the commencement of Ascott
Kuningan Serviced Apartment located at Jalan Dr. Satrio, which
quotes a rental tariff way above the average market rate and
thus impacted to the overall rental rates. On the other hand,
the average rental rate of non-serviced apartment remained
stable. However, since the majority of non-serviced apartment
are offered in US dollars while the remainder are offered in local
currency, the overall rental rates in US dollars (after converting
from IDR to USD with the current exchange rate) somewhat
dropped due to the strengthening US dollar against the rupiah
during this quarter.

Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Apartment | Colliers International

All in all, by location, the average rental rates of serviced


apartments in the CBD and the South Jakarta (including
non-prime areas) increased modestly by 1.7% compared to
the previous quarter or 5.3% compared to the previous year.
Serviced apartment in the CBD posted an average rental rate of
USD34.50/sq m/month, while the average rental rate in South
Jakarta (including non-prime area) was quoted at a cheaper rate
of USD26.70/sq m/month. On the other hand, the non-serviced
apartment in the CBD reached USD17.50/sq m/month, while the
apartment in South Jakarta (including non-prime area) charged
less at USD13.10/sq m/month.

Average Asking Rental Rates as of 4Q 2014


serviced
apartment

Area

non-serviced
apartment

CBD

USD34.48

USD17.52

South and Non-prime area

USD26.69

USD13.12

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Average Rental Rates of Apartment For Lease


(Serviced and Non-Serviced)

Outlook
Overall, the 2014 performance was under the level of
accomplishment in 2013. In term of total units of newly
introduced projects, the total apartment supply in 2014 was only
12,164 units, dropped by 45% compared to 2013s figure of 21,935
units. Moreover, the overall lackluster absorption was mainly
due to the tight competition among under-construction projects.
The competition among the under-construction apartment and
the limitation in financing due to LTV regulation has pushed
developers to become more creative like providing flexible
financing terms and marketing gimmick which alleviate the
burden of consumers.
In the rental apartment market, tight competition and slow
rental movement is seen to characterize the market in 2015.
The relatively stagnant occupancy rate is seen to continue due
to some additional new stock of leased apartment project and
competition from strata-title apartments offered for lease. On
this basis, we expect no significant increase in the rental rate in
2015, as we only anticipate 5-6% increase compared to the 2014.

USD 30.00
USD 27.00
USD 24.00
USD 21.00
USD 18.00
USD 15.00
USD 12.00
USD 9.00
USD 6.00
USD 3.00

CBD

4Q 2014

3Q 2014

2Q 2014

1Q 2014

4Q 2013

3Q 2013

2Q 2013

1Q 2013

4Q 2012

3Q 2012

2Q 2012

1Q 2012

USD 0.00

South Jakarta (including Non-Prime Area)

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

All in all, by location, the average rental rates of serviced


apartments in the CBD and the South Jakarta (including
non-prime areas) increased modestly by 1.7% compared to
the previous quarter or 5.3% compared to the previous year.
Serviced apartment in the CBD posted an average rental rate of
USD34.50/sq m/month, while the average rental rate in South
Jakarta (including non-prime area) was quoted at a cheaper rate
of USD26.70/sq m/month. On the other hand, the non-serviced
apartment in the CBD reached USD17.50/sq m/month, while the
apartment in South Jakarta (including non-prime area) charged
less at USD13.10/sq m/month.

25 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Apartment | Colliers International

Expatriate Housing
Sector
Expatriate Housing
During 2H 2014, two locations in Cilandak and Kemand saw the
completion of five new expat-standard, 3- to 4-bedroom, 400
to 450 sq m houses with 500 sq m of land. The supply of expat
housing stock is still lagging behind the demand. The stock
situation of expat housing mostly remained as it was in 1H 2014.
As the favourite expat location remains South Jakarta, the growth
of new housing stock is always limited compared to the need for
houses. Land stock is also limited, particularly the most sought
after locations like Kebayoran Baru, Pondok Indah, Kemang,
Cipete and Kuningan, and even Menteng in the Central Jakarta
area. Furthermore, land is selling for very high prices, making
the investment in low-rise residences yield a low return. South
Jakarta area is still irreplaceable as the home of expatriates from
European and American countries as it provides almost all of
the facilities such as international school, entertainment spots,
shopping destinations, golf courses and other points of interest.
For the sake of security and comfort, gated compounds are
always interesting, particularly for non-corporate expatriates.
Quite a few corporations are considering not housing all of their
expat employees in one compound. Nowadays, it is common
to see gated communities inhabited by expats from different
companies. Although the interest in such integrated housing
compounds is quite strong, gated housing compounds are not
widely available in expatriate locations.
Due to limited supply, expatriate-standard housing in expatriate
locations, such as in South Jakarta is considered premium
property, and therefore landlords owning many housing units
tend to have a take-it or leave-it attitude when negotiating
with tenants. Individual landlords having only a few houses
are generally quite flexible in terms of rent negotiations as they
rely heavily on the income from the property. Currently, the
minimum rent for a house for expatriates is USD3,000 / month
/ unit, for a 3-bedroom house in Cipete and the maximum is
USD15,000 / month / unit for a 4- to 5-bedroom house in the
Kebayoran, Menteng and Pondok Indah areas.
The expatriate housing market reached a plateau in early 2014,
highlighted by modest inquiries for housing accommodation.
Nevertheless, landlords who have a great number of houses
were still confident in maintaining the rental rate at the high
level due to their success in 2013. On the other hand, individual
landlords are more willing to negotiate the rental rate. These
landlords are more concerned when their houses are vacant for
periods of more than three months. Negotiating rent with certain
individual landlords is relatively pleasant as they will lower the
rental rates between 10 and 15%.

26 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Expatriate Housing | Colliers International

Housing Rental Rates in Several Expatriate Areas


expatriate housing by area

size (sq m)

rental range (us$/unit)

menteng

4 - 5 Bedrooms House

500 - 1,200

5,000 - 15,000

500 - 900

4,500 - 12,000

450 - 1,000

4,500 - 15,000

600 - 1,500

5,000 - 15,000

250 - 700

3,500 - 8,500

400 - 1,500

4,500 - 12,000

220

3,500

kuningan

4 - 5 Bedrooms House

Pondok indah

4 - 5 Bedrooms House

kebayoran baru

4 - 5 Bedrooms House
3 - 4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex

permata hijau, simpruG

4 - 5 Bedrooms House
3 - 4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex

kemang

3 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex

400 - 700

3,500 - 5,500

4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex

400 - 750

3,500 - 5,000

550 - 1,000

4,000 - 7,000

4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex

300 - 700

4,000 - 6,500

3 Bedrooms Apartment + Study

300 - 600

3,500 - 5,500

4 - 5 Bedroom House

450 - 750

4,000 - 7,000

4 - 5 Bedrooms House

cilandak

cipete

3 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex

200 - 300

3,500 - 5,000

4 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex

400 - 700

4,500 - 6,000

3 + 1 Bedrooms House

300 - 500

3,000 - 3,500

4 - 5 Bedroom House

400 - 800

3,500 - 7,000

3 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex

400 - 600

4,000 - 7,000

4 Bedrooms House

500 - 900

3,500 - 7,000

pejaten

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

27 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Expatriate Housing | Colliers International

Demand

Apartment for Expatriates

There was no significant change in the absorption level of


expatriate housing during 2H 2014 compared to the previous
semester. Currently, the Immigration Office is quite bold in
implementing regulations, for example, they will not allow
expatriates more than fifty years old to work in Indonesia in
compliance with the maximum working age.

The rental rates of apartments occupied by expatriates


are relatively stable because they are mainly managed by
international hotel chain operators who quote corporate pricing
often set by overseas headquarters. Strata-title apartments
managed by hotel chains and well located in the preferred
location in South Jakarta will continue to capture high occupancy
rates primarily because they become as as alternative to the lack
of supply in landed housing.

For some time, the oil and gas industry has been the major
drive of the demand for expatriate housing. To date, demand for
expatriate housing from the oil and gas sector softened, waiting
for the new government to accelerate the economy. This resulted
in the slow absorption of expat housing from this industry during
the reviewed period. On another front, the manufacturing and
consumer goods industries were quite active with business
expansions, which accordingly brought more expat workers.
Other active industries are mining, banking, insurance and
investments. Demand from government institutions and
embassies was relatively flat and remained in the same trend as
in the previous semester.
During the second semester, occupiers are still mainly young
families with one or two elementary school-age children. This
typical age group of expatriates are generally quite fussy when
discussing schools for their children. The case at the leading
international school, Jakarta International School (JIS) has gone
to trial and it looks like the management put great effort into
overcoming the situation and restoring their reputation.

The current rental rate is relatively similar to that in 1H 2014.


Typical 2-bedroom non-serviced apartments (including stratatitle apartments that are rented to expatriates) are offered in the
range of USD2,500 to 4,300 per month. The larger apartments
with three bedrooms are offered at between USD2,700 and 6,000
per month. Kebayoran Baru is the area for exclusive non-serviced
apartments. A high-end apartment called Dharmawangsa
quotes USD8,000 to 10,000 per month for 4- to 5-bedroom units.
Two-bedroom serviced apartments were found with rental
rates of USD3,150 to 5,600 per month, while the 3-bedroom
apartments are offered at between USD3,450 and 7,500 per
month. The rental rates for larger serviced apartments with more
than three bedrooms were USD3,350 to 6,400 per month.

Overall, the expatriate communities living in Jakarta are quite


happy with the results of the election and place great hope on
the new government. The combination of a better Indonesia and
the limited amount of available expat housing gives landlords a
reason to introduce new rent increases, which are anticipated in
the range of 10 to 15% or USD300 - 400 / unit compared to the
2014 figures.

Apartment Rental Rates in Several Expatriate Areas


apartment by area

rental rate (usD/unit)

size (sq m)

non-serviced apartment

serviced apartment

sudirman

2 Bedrooms Apartment

106 - 257

2,500 - 4,000

4,250 - 5,600

3 Bedrooms Apartment

156 - 370

3,500 - 6,000

5,000 - 7,500

menteng

2 Bedrooms Apartment

90 - 142

3,000 - 3,900

3 Bedrooms Apartment

124 - 213

3,350 - 5,000

4 Bedrooms Apartment

319

17,000

kuningan

2 Bedrooms Apartment

120 - 145

2,500 - 3,500

3,150 - 5,500

3 Bedrooms Apartment

157 - 323

3,000 - 4,500

3,450 - 5,500

4 Bedrooms Apartment

440

5,500 - 7,000

continued

28 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Expatriate Housing | Colliers International

apartment by area

rental rate (usD/unit)

size (sq m)

non-serviced apartment

serviced apartment*
continuation

pondok indah

2 + 1 Bedrooms Apartment

117 - 190

2,500 - 3,000

3,500 - 4,200

3 Bedrooms Apartment

190 - 455

2,800 - 3,500

4,000 - 5,400

4 - 5 Bedrooms Apartment

285 - 455

3,500 - 5,000

5,650 - 6,400

Kebayoran baru

2 Bedrooms Apartment

140 - 203

3,200 - 4,300

3 Bedrooms Apartment

243 - 302

4,500 - 6,000

4- 5 Bedrooms Apartment

400 - 500

8,000 - 10,000

105 - 115

3,100 - 3,150

165 - 300

2,700 - 4,000

3,350 - 3,400

165 - 300

2,500 - 4,500

262 - 300

3,450 - 5,000

300

4,500

220 - 295

4,000 - 6,000

70 - 191

1,500 - 3,000

permata hijau, simprug

2 Bedrooms Apartment
3 - 4 Bedrooms Apartment

Kemang

3 Bedrooms Apartment

cilandak

3 - 4 Bedrooms Apartment
3 Bedrooms Apartment + Study

cipete

3 - 4 Bedrooms Apartment

pejaten

1 - 3 Bedrooms Townhouse/Complex
*exclude Breakfast
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Occupancy
Despite being lower than in the previous semester, the overall
occupancy for upper-class apartments generally still had high
occupancy rates ranging from 74 to 92%. The average occupancy
level for all expatriate apartments in our basket experienced a
modest decrease of 5% compared to the previous semester, to
83%.

29 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Expatriate Housing | Colliers International

Average Occupancy Rate of Selected Apartments


Preferred by Expatriates
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
A

Average

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research


Notes:
A: Dharmawangsa, The Capital Residence, SCBD Suites, Pakubuwono Residence
B: The Residence, Plaza Senayan, The Plaza Residence, Airlangga, Senayan City
C: Setiabudi Residence, Golf Pondok Indah, Somerset Grand Citra, The Ascott, Menteng
Eksekutif
D: Aston Rasuna, Batavia, Somerset Berlian, Puri Casablanca, Casablanca
E: Taman Rasuna, Palm Court, Puri Imperium

30 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Expatriate Housing | Colliers International

RETAIL SECTOR
Supply
Jakarta
Jakarta has seen a limited number of new shopping centres
since 2013. Lippo Mal Puri and two extension projects in Puri
and Kelapa Gading brought 138,200 sq m of additional supply,
delivering the cumulative at 4.44 million sq m in 2014. By only
growing 3.2% YoY, the growth of supply recorded below 4% since
2011.
Limited additional supply will again be seen in Jakarta in 2015
2018. Moreover, the absence of newly launched shopping centres
has brought about no change in the list of future supply since
the beginning of 2014. In 2015, Jakarta will only have 38,000 sq
m of additional supply from the contribution of two shopping
centres called PIK (Pantai Indah Kapuk) Mall in North Jakarta
and Shopping Mall at Pancoran in South Jakarta.
Based on construction progress, only four among the future
shopping centres in 20152018 are currently under construction;
the others are still in the planning stage. Three of these underconstruction projects are developed by a well-known developer
(APL Agung Podomoro Land).

Jakarta Shopping Center Cumulative Supply


5,500,000
5,000,000
4,500,000

sq m

4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000

Existing Supply

Annual Supply

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

31 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International

2018F

2017F

2016F

2015F

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

In addition to a sufficient land bank, infrastructure availability


will encourage shopping centre development. Easy access and
transportation will help people reach their shopping destinations
easily and rapidly.

Jakarta Shopping
Based on Area

Center

Cumulative

Supply

Cumulative

Supply

5,500,000
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000

For Sale

2018F

2017F

2016F

2015F

2014

2013

2012

2011

East Jakarta is also expected to emerge as a shopping centre


development destination to attract people from Bekasi, Bogor
and Depok. Some areas in South Jakarta besides Pondok Indah,
Cilandak, Pejaten and Blok M also hold great potential. The
numerous residentials with people density of around 14,000 /
sq km will drive landlords to develop their properties, including
shopping centres, in South Jakarta. Providing a different concept
will attract people from the business district.

Jakarta Shopping Center


Based on Marketing Scheme

2010

In terms of location, areas in Jakarta that are adjacent to


surrounding cities such as Tangerang, Bekasi, Depok and Bogor
are expected to experience more growth in the future due to land
prices that keep increasing in the city centre. Some areas between
Jakarta and surrounding cities aim to build communities such
as residence complexes. This is why some areas in West Jakarta,
such as Kembangan, Kalideres, Cengkareng and Kebun Jeruk,
hold great potential for the development of shopping centres to
support residential complexes. The development of shopping
centres in these areas is projected to attract visitors from
Tangerang.

Based on marketing scheme, 67.5% of the cumulative supply in


Jakarta has been marketed for lease as of 2014. No additional
retail for sale in large spaces has been contributed since 2010.
Low occupancy performance has caused landlords to be more
careful in developing retail for sale.

sq m

Despite the slowing down of supply, Jakarta will still see new
shopping centres emerging each year from 2015 to 2017. In
addition to its positive effect of providing employment, it is
good to have new malls because they drive economic growth.
The existence of new malls can be considered an indicator for
tenants, especially foreign retailers, that Indonesia has a good
climate for investment.

For Lease

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Greater Jakarta Area (BoDeTaBek Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, Bekasi)


Bekasi and Tangerang are the main drivers in providing new
shopping centres in 20132014. In 2014, Tangerang was the
contributor of two shopping centres called Bintaro Xchange
and Grand Dadap City. Based on its completion, Grand Dadap
City is a newly operating mall as of 4Q 2014. Another shopping
centre called Cinere Bellevue Lifestyle Mall is located in Depok.
The operation of these three shopping centres brought the
cumulative supply to 2.27 million sq m as of 2014.

West Jakarta
East Jakarta
North Jakarta

Based on number, BoDeTaBek will see a very limited number


of future shopping centres in 2015. Only one shopping centre
called AEON Mall at BSD will operate in early 2015. AEON Mall
will bring around 75,000 sq m of additional retail space. Similar
to Jakarta, no shopping centres were launched in BoDeTaBek
areas as of 4Q 2014.

South Jakarta
Central Jakarta
CBD
0

300,000

Existing Supply up to 2014

600,000

900,000

1,200,000
sq m

Future Supply in 2015 - 2018

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

32 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International

BoDeTaBek Shopping Center Cumulative Supply


3,000,000
2,500,000

sq m

2,000,000

Based on marketing scheme, retail for lease in BoDeTaBek


represented 66.4% of the total retail supply in 2014. Meanwhile,
Bekasi Junction, which has been operating since 2013, was the
latest additional supply of strata-title retail in BoDeTaBek. Two
retail development projects in Bekasi and Bogor are expected
to contribute additional strata-title retail supply in BoDeTaBek.
These two future projects are expected to be completed in 2016
and 2017.

BoDeTaBek Shopping Center Cumulative Supply


Based on Marketing Scheme

1,500,000
1,000,000

3,000,000
500,000
2,500,000

2018F

2017F

2016F

2015F

2014

Annual Supply

2,000,000

sq m

Existing Supply

2013

2012

2011

2010

1,500,000

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

1,000,000

For Sale

Bekasi

Tangerang

Depok

Bogor

300,000

Existing Supply up to 2014

600,000

900,000

1,200,000
sq m

Future Supply in 2015 - 2018

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

33 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International

2018F

2017F

2016F

2015F

2014

2013

For Lease

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

BoDeTaBek Shopping Center Cumulative Supply


Based on Area

2012

2011

Some future shopping centre developments in BoDeTaBek will


be located in areas with growing industry. Eliciting the interest of
people who work within these industry areas will become a goal
for landlords who intend to develop shopping centres. This is
why Cikarang, Deltamas, Cileungsi and Cibinong will again rise
as contributor areas of additional retail supply in BoDeTaBek.

500,000

2010

Besides AEON Mall BSD, other future shopping centres are


under planning stage as of 2014. Based on construction progress,
most of the future shopping centres in BoDeTaBek are expected
to operate in 2017.

New Supply Pipeline


shopping centers

location

region

NLA (sq m)

Status

Jakarta
2015
Pantai Indah Kapuk Mall

Pantai Indah Kapuk

North Jakarta

Shopping Mall @ Pancoran

Pancoran

South Jakarta

30,000 Under Construction

Slipi

West Jakarta

40,000 Under Construction

Glodok

West Jakarta

60,000

8,000

Under Construction

2016
Neo SOHO Mall (Podomoro City)
2017
New Harco Plaza

Under Construction

Mal Puri Indah 2

Puri Indah

West Jakarta

75,000 In Planning

Grand Cipulir

Cipulir

South Jakarta

40,000

Jatinegara City

Jatinegara

East Jakarta

50,000 In Planning

Mall @ Green Pramuka City

In Planning

North Jakarta

30,000 In Planning

Holland Village Mall

Cempaka Putih

Central Jakarta

40,000 In Planning

AEON Mall Garden City

Cakung

East Jakarta

90,000 In Planning

Mas Mansyur

Central Jakarta

Serpong

Tangerang

Bekasi Trade Center 2

Bulak Kapal

Bekasi

56,000

In Planning

Metropolitan Mall Cileungsi

Cileungsi

Bogor

25,000

In Planning

Living World Jababeka

Jababeka

Bekasi

18,000

In Planning

Vivo Sentul Lifestyle

Cibinong

Bogor

30,000 In Planning

Vivo Sentul Trademall

Cibinong

Bogor

13,000

AEON Mall Deltamas

Deltamas

Bekasi

90,000 In Planning

Plaza Indonesia Jababeka

Jababeka

Bekasi

20,000

In Planning

AEON Mall Bogor

Cibinong

Bogor

20,000

In Planning

Hollywood Central

Cikarang

Bekasi

25,000 In Planning

2018
Mall at The City Center

In Planning

BoDeTaBek
2015
AEON Mall BSD City

75,000 Under Construction

2016

2017

In Planning

Embarcadero

Bintaro

Tangerang

40,000

Grand Dhika City Mall

Bekasi

Bekasi

24,000 In Planning

In Planning

Sawangan Mall

Sawangan

Depok

In Planning

Kota Harapan Indah

Bekasi

Bekasi

Lippo Grand Mall

Karawaci

Tangerang

AEON Mall Sentul

Sentul

Bogor

2018

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

34 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International

51,000 In planning
120,000 In planning
15,000

In planning

Occupancy Rates in Several Regions of Jakarta

Demand and Occupancy


3,500,000
3,000,000

100%

90%

95%

80%

2,500,000

sq m

100%

70%
60%

2,000,000

50%
1,500,000

40%

1,000,000
500,000

85%
80%
75%

30%

70%

20%

65%

10%

90%

60%

0%
2010

Space Absorbed

2011

2012

2013

Vacant Space

2014
Occupancy

2010

2011

Central Jakarta

South Jakarta

East Jakarta

West Jakarta

2012

2013
North Jakarta

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Newly operating malls (retail for lease) have brought large


impacts and have caused occupancy to fluctuate in Jakarta
since 2013. In early 2014, the occupancy climbed to 89%
after it registered 87% in 2013. A large amount of additional
supply caused the occupancy to again decline significantly.
In addition to new supply, refurbishment and the less-thanstellar performances of some shopping centres in Jakarta also
contributed to bring the occupancy at the lowest level since
2010. However, the occupancy began rising modestly QoQ and
recorded 86.3% as of 4Q 2014.

Based on area, the occupancy of shopping centres in Central


(excluding the CBD area) and West Jakarta has decreased
significantly by 11.7% and 13.9% YoY. As of 2014, there are at least
five retail centres that have low performance within these areas.
Most of these shopping centres are being refurbished, whereas
the others are recording losses due to a missing target market.

Despite around 400,000 sq m of vacant space remaining as of


2014, demand for shopping centres in Jakarta is projected to
increase. Central Department Store has opened at East Mall of
Grand Indonesia. Indonesia is the fourth country of business
expansion for this department store, which is originally based in
Thailand. In addition to Central, Grand Indonesia also presented
H&M as a new tenant at East Mall in mid-2014.
Some major tenants have progressively opened at Lippo Mall
Puri in 2014, such as Parkson, Hypermart and Matahari. This
mall will see many branded tenants, such as Debenhams,
Victorias Secret, Zara, Marks & Spencer, Fitness First and XXI,
opening in 2015.

Conversely, shopping centres in East Jakarta and the CBD showed


the highest increase in terms of occupancy YoY. Although it is
lower than those in South and North Jakarta, three malls have
helped the occupancy in East Jakarta, registering 86.8% as of
2014. This occupancy rate rose by 2.5%, which is higher than
those in South and North, which recorded 0.7% and 0.9% growth
YoY, respectively. In the meantime, the occupancy of shopping
centres in the CBD continued to lead by 92.5%, an increase of
3.5% YoY.
Middle- to upper-class malls have been contributing in the
maintenance of occupancy in the CBD at 90% since 2010. Based
on mall grade itself, the occupancy of upper-class malls in
Jakarta was at 90.5%, whereas that for middle- to low-class malls
was 85% as of 2014. It was recorded that around 50,000 of vacant
spaces remain at upper-class malls, representing 12% of total
vacant space in Jakarta.

35 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International

Occupancy Performance of Retail for Lease


(Shopping Centers) versus Retail for Sale (Stratatitle)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%

Tangerang recorded the lowest occupancy of 80.9%. Two newly


operating malls caused the occupancy to decrease 5.1% YoY
because they were not physically occupied when they were in
operation. Declining occupancy performance was also recorded
in Depok and Bogor. This mainly occurred because a lot of
committed tenants at some newly operating shopping centres
within those areas have not begun operation, which resulted in
low physical occupancy. Occupancy in Depok and Bogor was
registered at 84.3% and 82.4% as of 2014, down by 4.5% and 7.1%
YoY.
Demand is expected to rise in BoDeTaBek, although vacant
retail space remains around 300,000 sq m as of 2014. Bintaro
Xchange and Cinere Bellevue have thus far showed continually
good occupancy performance. Likewise, Grand Dadap City
has tied up with some committed tenants, such as Super Indo,
Pojok Busana, Bread Talk and J.Co, which have officially been
operating. Furthermore, this mall is preparing to bring Blitz
Megaplex as one of its major tenants.

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010

2011

2012

2013

For Sale

2014

For Lease

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Occupancy Performance
in BoDeTaBek

of

Retail

Centers

2013

2014

100%

Occupancy Performance of Shopping Centers


in BoDeTaBek

90%
80%

sq m

70%
2,000,000

100%

1,800,000

90%

1,600,000

80%

1,400,000

70%

1,200,000

60%

1,000,000

50%

800,000

40%

600,000

30%

400,000

20%

200,000

10%

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2010
Bogor

Space Absorbed

2011

2012

2013

Vacant Space

Depok

2012

Tangerang

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

0%
2010

2011

2014
Occupancy

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

All regions in BoDeTaBek have maintained the average


occupancy at around 82% as of 2014. Only Bekasi showed an
upward occupancy trend during the year as shopping centres
that began operating in 2013 started performing well, reaching
the highest growth of 4.5% YoY to record 81.4% this year.

36 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International

Bekasi

Rents

The asking base rents of shopping centres in North, East and


Central Jakarta were IDR300,000350,000/sq m/month as of
2014. The YoY growth of asking base rents in these areas was
somewhat moderate.

IDR 700,000
IDR 600,000

Based on mall grade, in line with the increase in base rents at


premium malls, the gap between upper- and middle- to middle
low-class malls is larger. As of 2014, the asking base rent of upperclass malls was IDR856,482/sq m/month, almost double that at
middle- to middle low-class malls.

IDR 500,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 300,000

Asking Base Rent Based on Mall Grade

IDR 200,000

IDR 1,000,000
IDR 900,000

IDR 100,000

IDR 800,000

IDR 0
2010

2011

2012

Jakarta

2013

2014

IDR 700,000
IDR 600,000

BoDeTaBek

IDR 500,000

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

IDR 400,000

The asking base rent in typical floor areas (non-anchor and


excluding ground floor area) of shopping centres in Jakarta was
IDR510,562/sq m/ month as of 2014. This figure grew by 7.3% YoY.
In the CBD, some shopping centres raised their base rents from
5%40%. Given the very limited vacant space, some premium
malls also adjusted their asking base rents. Two premium malls
located in Thamrin and Sudirman thoroughfares adjusted their
base rents significantly YoY. Besides the CBD, West and South
Jakarta have the second highest base rents in Jakarta as of 2014.
The asking base rents in these two areas are almost identical, i.e.
IDR498,280/sq m/month in West Jakarta and IDR488,301/sq
m/month in South Jakarta. This is quite surprising as there are
currently a higher number of good shopping centres in South
Jakarta than in West Jakarta.

Average Asking Base Rent Based on Area


IDR 800,000
IDR 700,000
IDR 600,000

IDR 300,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 0
2010
Upper Class

IDR 300,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 0
2012

2013

2014

CBD

Central Jakarta

South Jakarta

North Jakarta

East Jakarta

West Jakarta

Middle

2013

2014

Middle Low

Compared to Jakarta, the asking base rents of shopping centres


in BoDeTaBek had a greater increase of 11.2% YoY. Newly
operating shopping centres in 2013 and 2014 had a big impact
on asking base rents, which were IDR308,259/sq m/month as of
2014. Tangerang maintained the highest base rent at IDR377,642,
followed by Bekasi at 285,801/sq m/month, respectively. Most
shopping centres in Tangerang and Bekasi raised their base rents
25% on the average YoY. In line with good absorption, two newly
operating shopping centres in Bekasi have adjusted their base
rents based on space availability.

IDR 400,000

2011

2012

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

IDR 500,000

2010

2011

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

37 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International

Asking Base Rent Based on Region

The service charge in BoDeTaBek was at IDR78,000/sq m/month


as of 2014. This service charge also jumped significantly by 21%
YoY. Service charges in Tangerang and Bekasi were the highest at
IDR89,647 and 86,601/sq m/month.

IDR 400,000
IDR 360,000

Service Charge in BoDeTaBek Based on Region

IDR 320,000
IDR 280,000

IDR 120,000

IDR 240,000
IDR 200,000

IDR 100,000

IDR 160,000
IDR 80,000

IDR 120,000
IDR 80,000

IDR 60,000

IDR 40,000
IDR 0

IDR 40,000
2010

Bogor

2011

2012

Depok

2013

Tangerang

2014
Bekasi

IDR 20,000

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

IDR 0
2010

Service Charge

Bogor

Since 2010, the average service charge in Jakarta and BoDeTaBek


has risen 10% per year. The increasing tariff on electricity, a fuel
hike and rising minimum wage in the last two years contributed
most of the increase in service charge in 2014. The service charge
was IDR99,000/sq m/month in Jakarta and IDR78,872/sq m/
month in BoDeTaBek as of 2014.

IDR 120,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 80,000
IDR 60,000
IDR 40,000
IDR 20,000
IDR 0
2011

2012

Jakarta

2013

Depok

2012

2014

BoDeTaBek

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

38 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Retail | Colliers International

2013

Tangerang

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

At least 15 shopping centres in Jakarta set their service charges


at more than IDR100,000/sq m/month. Most of them are wellknown shopping centres that are distributed in West, South
and Central Jakarta, including the CBD. On the average, these
shopping centres increased their service charges by 20% YoY.

2010

2011

2014
Bekasi

Industrial Estate
Sector
Supply
By the end of the year, the industrial land stock remained
unchanged as was observed in the previous quarter. Industrial
estates with land stocks that are being planned for development
have yet to deliver their new industrial land expansion during
the quarter. Most of the operating industrial estates with ongoing
land development are progressing with cut-and-fill works
and putting the infrastructure to catch up with the deadline
of completion. Meanwhile, land construction activities in
several new industrial estates located in Trans Hexa Karawang
area seem to be intensive. Industrial estates like GT Techpark
@ Karawang, Podomoro Industrial Park and others are quite
progressive in developing the land as they have secured buyers
and have to deliver the land as scheduled. Still in the same
location, Podomoro Industrial Park confirmed the beginning of
construction, with the first stage of 325 hectares being ready for
use by November or December this year.
An industrial estate in Karawang has confirmed the delivery of
land totalling 84 ha, which was transacted back in 2012. With
limited ready-to-use land available, it is now planning to prepare
the remaining raw land in the third stage while keeping the
unsold land in the second stage.
Several industrial estates with limited land have reported their
remaining land stock availability. One industrial estate in Bekasi
confirmed that it has a ready-to-use 15 ha of land available in
stock. Another industrial estate in Karawang has only less than
2 ha of land to offer. One industrial estate in Tangerang reported
that only 7 ha remain as ready-to-use land.
Industrial estate like Delta Silicon is now focusing on selling the
latest stage of development, i.e. Delta Silicon 8, which will be
delivered sometime in 2015 or 2016. With a higher sales target
in 2015, Delta Silicon is anticipating to sell more in 2015 from
the stock in Delta Silicon 8. Similarly, GIIC and KIEC set higher
sales targets in 2015, and they are now rushing the completion
of under-construction land. KIEC is focusing on selling the next
stage of land, which is part of the 200 ha plan.
There are some plans for expansion at existing industrial estates
and for the opening of new industrial estates. The big parcel of
land will be potentially contributed by industrial estates located
in the Trans Hexa Karawang corridor, as mentioned above. The
expansion of existing industrial estates has become a more
realistic plan because the existing tenants would potentially
become strong buyers. Other industries may eye the expansion
of existing industrial estates because of their reputation and
established infrastructure and facilities. A challenging situation
will be faced by new industrial estates, particularly in getting first
tenants with well-known brands to attract more tenants to come.

39 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Industrial Estate | Colliers International

Industrial Land Stock Status in Some Active and


Future Industrial Estates
4,000
3,500

Hectares

3,000

KIIC, which has not sold land in two consecutive quarters,


registered two transactions from automotive companies in
Japan with a total sales of 4.7 ha. Other small transactions in 4Q
2014 were the 1.8 ha concluded by Japanese logistics companies
at Kota Bukit Indah, the less than 1 ha in Delta Silicon by a
warehouse developer and the small parcel of land plots in
Millennium bought by small manufacturing companies.

Land Absorption During 4Q 2014

2,500
2,000

Greenland International Industrial

1,500

Bekasi Fajar
Modern Cikande

1,000

Krakatau Industrial Estate Cilegon

500

KIIC

Jababeka
Bogor

Total Saleable Land

Bekasi

Tangerang Karawang

Remaining Land

Serang

Potential Land To Be Developed

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Kawasan Industri Kujang Cikampek


Kota Bukit Indah (Indotaisei)
Millenium
Delta Silicon
CCIE

Demand
At the end of 2014, the total number of industrial land being
sold was almost similar to the total amount transacted in 2013,
i.e. 440.2 ha. The only major difference is the composition
of the area where the transactions occurred. Bekasi and
Serang regions sold more land compared to that in 2013.
Meanwhile, land sales in Karawang were almost negligible
in 2014 compared with those in 2013. Several prominent
transactions saved the overall performance this year,
which was predicted to experience a slow market situation.
The total land transacted this quarter was 102.87, lower than
that in the second and third quarters of 2014. It was mainly
contributed by the transaction concluded by Greenland
International Industrial Center (GIIC). GIIC reported a total
transaction of 49.83 ha concluded by seven investors with core
businesses in the logistics and automotive sectors. Another
significant transaction occurred in Bekasi Fajar, securing
three transactions from logistics and warehouse companies
totalling 21.62 ha. Two prominent industrial estates in Serang
consistently recorded some transactions during the last
quarter of 2014. Modern Cikande acquired 11.85 ha from six
transactions mainly from chemical industries, followed by other
manufacturing companies that focus on filtration systems,
ventilators, building materials and others, most of which are
new industries. On the other hand, KIEC was successful in
capturing state-owned companies in energy industries and
utility providers. Other transactions during the quarter were
relatively small in amount but showed consistency, such as
those of Jababeka, which reported land sales every quarter. This
quarter, Jababeka sold 3.6 ha of land to three local investors in
packaging, warehousing and general manufacturing industries.

10

20

30

40

50

60

hectares
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

With the conclusion of significant transactions in the second


quarter of 2014, Modern Cikande led as the main contributor for
overall sales during the year. GIIC also registered good sales in
2Q and 4Q, putting it in second place as the main contributor to
overall sales in 2014.

Land Absorption During the Whole 2014


Modern Cikande
Greenland International Industrial
Delta Silicon
Bekasi Fajar
Jababeka
Millenium
Krakatau Industrial Estate Cilegon
KIIC
Kawasan Industri Kujang Cikampek
Kota Bukit Indah (Indotaisei)
CCIE
0

40

80

120

160
hectares

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

40 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Industrial Estate | Colliers International

Annual Industrial Land Absorption

Land Price
The average US dollar exchange rate against rupiah in 2014
climbed, albeit modestly, by 2% to IDR12,440. The weakening
local currency value to the greenback has affected the overall
calculation in this report mainly because some industrial estates
quoted land prices in rupiah and the rupiah currency is converted
into US dollars because most active industrial estates quoted
prices in US dollars. As a result, the average price has been quite
volatile, particularly when the exchange rate fluctuates. In Bogor
and Serang, all industrial estates offer industrial land in the local
currency. With a weakening rupiah against the US dollar, despite
maintaining the price at the same level, the average prices in US
dollars seem to be weakening somewhat.

1,400
1,200

Hectares

1,000
800
600
400
200

Jakarta

Bogor

Bekasi

Tangerang

Karawang

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Serang

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Types of Activities Industries During 2014


Manufacturing
Oil & Gas
0.4%
Related Chemicals
0.7%
1.6%
Electronics
0.6%
Steelrelated
1.1%

Packaging
1.3%
Logistics/
Warehousing
28.4%

Heavy
Metal Equipment
5.7% Building
1.0%
Machinery Material
1.2%
0.2%
Developer
0.2%

Plastics
3.1%

Others
3.2%

Food &
Beverage
28.8%

Automotive
22.5%

Industrial land prices in general increased by around 9.8%


compared with that in 2013. In the last quarter of 2014, the
prices of several industrial estates were adjusted, particularly
those located in Bekasi, Tangerang and Serang. Developers
continued to quote new prices on the back of limited industrial
land available. Tangerang experienced the highest YoY increase
with 41.3%, followed by Serang and Bekasi by 14.9% and 8.5%,
respectively.
The QoQ price trend in the last quarter of 2014 was relatively
small at less than 10%, with some industrial estates in Bekasi
introducing a new asking price for the remaining small plots of
land available. Other industrial estates opted to maintain the
current price amid the slowing market.
The actual land price being transacted is very much influenced
by several factors. Japanese-affiliated developers are generally
firm with the offering price and only give a small discount
from the published rate. Other factors that impact prices are
the location of the land plots. Those located in primary-access
areas are definitely more expensive. The shape of land is also
a determinant: rectangular is more expansive than irregular
shape. Land size will also affect the negotiation as bigger land
gets higher discount. The last significant factor is the brand of the
tenant. Big multinational tenants will shape the whole perception
of the industrial estate and motivate other supporting industries
to come.

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Transactions concluded from the automotive sector did not


dominate in 2014. However, despite the insignificant number,
the food and logistics industries were the major drivers of the
transactions that occurred during the year. Transactions from
the food-related category were mainly driven by substantial
deals concluded by Modern Cikande. Overall, logistics-related
industries, including warehousing, were the most active lines of
business throughout the year in terms of volume and number
of transactions. This trend will likely continue going forward as
many companies will need logistics for storage and distribution
purposes.

41 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Industrial Estate | Colliers International

Greater Jakarta Industrial Maintenance Cost

Greater Jakarta Industrial Land Prices


USD 250

USD 0.09
USD 0.08

USD 200

USD 0.07
USD 0.06

USD 150

USD 0.05
USD 0.04

USD 100

USD 0.03
USD 0.02

USD 50

USD 0.01
USD 0

USD 0.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Bogor

Bekasi

Tangerang

Karawang

Serang

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Land price (per sq m)


lowest

highest

Bogor

Bekasi

Tangerang

Karawang

Serang

Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Industrial Land Prices and Maintenance Costs*


region

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rental Factory

maintenance costs
(per sq m per month)

average

lowest

highest

average
USD 0.06

Bogor

USD 120.0

USD 228.7

USD 174.3

USD 0.06

USD 0.06

Bekasi

USD 185.0

USD 250.0

USD 223.5

USD 0.06

USD 0.08

USD 0.07

Tangerang

USD 155.2

USD 163.3

USD 159.2

USD 0.03

USD 0.08

USD 0.06

Karawang

USD 170.0

USD 200.0

USD 185.0

USD 0.05

USD 0.10

USD 0.06

Serang

USD 122.5

USD 142.9

USD 132.7

USD 0.03

USD 0.05

USD 0.04

*1USD = Rp 12,245
Source: Colliers International Indonesia - Research

Maintenance Cost
During the quarter, none of the industrial estates introduced
new service charge tariffs and preferred to maintain the cost at
the current level. Further, only a few industrial estates plan to
adjust the maintenance cost in 2015, although operating cost
is anticipated to increase following the fuel price hike and the
adjustment in the minimum regional wage. The fluctuating
electricity tariff is also foreseen to further affect the increase in
operating cost.

Given the limited industrial land for sale, industrial developers


have started to build rental factories to accommodate new
companies that plan to test the water and do not intend to highly
invest in their first business in Indonesia. There are only three
originally designed industrial estates for lease that are scattered
in two areas, i.e. one in Bogor (Cibinong Center Industrial Estate)
and two in Karawang (Kota Bukit Indah Besland Pertiwi and
Kawasan Industri Kujang Cikampek). Since their establishment,
these three industrial estates have been offered for lease. The
rental tariff for industrial estates offering in US dollars range
between USD4.00 to 5.00/sq m/month, whereas for those
offering rent in local currency, the amount was registered at
IDR36,500/sq m/month.
Rental tariff is charged differently among the industrial estates.
One established industrial estate in Karawang charges three
items as the cost for the tenant, including the cost of renting
the industrial building, the cost of renting the land occupied by
the industrial building and the service charge. Other industrial
estates simply charge rental cost for both the building and
the land (altogether) and the service charge. When the land
is charged separately (excluded from the rental cost of the
building), the tariff is USD1.25/sq m/month, as found in one
industrial estate located in Karawang. For industrial estates that
specifically focus on leasing land, the tariff of leasing land is only
USD4.00/ sq m/month.
Aside from the three rental industrial estates above, rental option
has started to become common in the industrial estates that
originally only sold land. With land scarcity in several industrial
lands and the increasing worker population within the industrial
estates, landlords are now aiming to develop income-producing
properties such as rental factories, or to develop commercial
components like offices, hotels and apartments.

42 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Industrial Estate | Colliers International

One industrial estate located in Bekasi Regency is developing


a rental factory scheduled for completion in MarchApril 2015
on a designated location of less than 10 hectares. With Japanese
companies being the main target market, this industrial estate
is confident that it will be able to charge a very high rental tariff
beyond the average market rates. Although this is not proven, the
big potential lies in new companies that are eyeing to expand in
Indonesia but need to keep the risk low by using rental factories.

Yield Expectation
Gross rental yield expectation in 2014 somewhat moved
upward compared with that in the previous year. To obtain the
estimated gross yield, we took samples of some industrial estates
in different locations, either those with rental options or rental
information from the secondary market. In 2013, the cost of
renting a factory ranged from IDR32,000 to 70,000/sq m/month.
In 2014, rental rates ranged from IDR36,500 to 110,200/sq m/
month. The increment in the construction cost and land price
during the year regulated the percentage of gross yield registered
between 9.1% to 12.2%, which was quite high compared to other
property sectors.

Concluding Thought
The major challenges for the industrial market in 2015 are
the expensive US dollar denomination, increasing electricity
price and continued adjustment in the minimum wage.
Notwithstanding the fact that land availability remains the major
issue, several industrial estates have confirmed the handover
of ready-to-use land in 2015. When the market bounces as
expected, several industrial estates have enough land bank to
anticipate such situation.
As mentioned above, the policy in the minimum regional wage
is a big concern for many industrialists. This could possibly lead
to industrialists implementing intensive automation systems to
replace human workers whose labour price is getting expensive.
The increase in the minimum wage has a great effect in labourintensive industries. Areas in eastern greater Jakarta (Bodetabek),
which include Bekasi, Karawang and Purwakarta, experienced
the highest increase in the minimum wage for 2015, i.e. 20.4%
YoY. Meanwhile, the western part of greater Jakarta area, which
includes Tangerang and Serang, registered 11.9% increase YoY.
The industrial cities in East Java Province recorded the highest
YoY jump in 2015, i.e. 22.2%, making the minimum regional
wage in these cities similar to those in Jakarta and in the greater
Jakarta area. All in all, the increase in the minimum regional
wage might have a limited impact in multinational industries,
particularly high-tech industries.

43

Minimum Wages in Jakarta


IDR 3,000,000

IDR 2,500,000

IDR 2,000,000

IDR 1,500,000

IDR 1,000,000

IDR 500,000

IDR 0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Regional Government

Minimum Wages in Western Greater Jakarta


IDR 3,000,000
IDR 2,500,000
IDR 2,000,000
IDR 1,500,000
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Kota Serang

Kabupaten Serang

Kota Tangerang

Kabupaten Tangerang

Source: Regional Government

2015

Minimum Wages in Eastern Greater Jakarta

Minimum Wages in Central and East Java Cities


IDR 3,000,000

IDR 3,000,000

IDR 2,500,000

IDR 2,500,000

IDR 2,000,000
IDR 2,000,000

IDR 1,500,000

IDR 1,500,000

IDR 1,000,000

IDR 1,000,000

IDR 500,000
IDR 0

IDR 500,000

2009

IDR 0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Kota Semarang

Kota Surabaya

Kabupaten Gresik

Kabupaten Sidoarjo

Kota Bekasi

Kabupaten Bekasi

Kota Pasuruan

Kabupaten Pasuruan

Kabupaten Karawang

Kabupaten Purwakarta

Kota Mojokerto

Kabupaten Mojokerto

2015

Source: Regional Government

Source: Regional Government

Minimum Wages in Southern Greater Jakarta

There is still room for land price increase in 2015, particularly


from industrial estates offering prices that are below the average
market price. For high-tech and big working capital industries,
land cost only represents around 5% to 10% of their total
investment. Meanwhile, capital expenditure accounts for a big
portion of the total investment. Further, for high-tech industries,
a large part of spending is centred on imported components like
machinery and equipment, which are very price-sensitive to the
fluctuation of the exchange rate. For high-capital industries, it is
very important to maintain the exchange rate at a stable level to
stay within budget.

IDR 3,000,000
IDR 2,500,000
IDR 2,000,000
IDR 1,500,000
IDR 1,000,000

Overseas investors are generally interested to run their


businesses in Indonesia, and quite a few industrialists who do
not plan to invest heavily in land and buildings might look for
opportunities to rent factories before deciding to take the option
of buying industrial properties in Indonesia.

IDR 500,000
IDR 0
2009

2010

Kota Bogor

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Kabupaten Bogor

Source: Regional Government

44 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Industrial Estate | Colliers International

45 Research & Forecast Report | 4Q 2014 | Colliers International

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6 continents

Primary Authors:
Ferry Salanto
Associate Director | Jakarta
62 21 521 1400 ext 134
Ferry.Salanto@colliers.com

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About Colliers International


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