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Source: WFM 10-K for the year ended Sept 28 2014, filed on Nov 21, 2014

Item 6 (Page 20):


Consolidated Statements of Operations Data

(1)

Sales
Cost of goods sold and occupancy costs
Gross profit
Direct store expenses
General and administrative expenses
Pre-opening expenses
Relocation, store closure and lease termination costs
Operating income
Interest expense
Investment and other income
Income before income taxes
Provision for income taxes
Net income
Preferred stock dividends
Income available to common shareholders
Basic earnings per share
Weighted average shares outstanding
Diluted earnings per share
Weighted average shares outstanding, diluted basis
Dividends declared per common share
Consolidated Balance Sheets Data
Net working capital
Total assets
Long-term debt (including current maturities)
Shareholders equity
Operating Data
Number of stores at end of fiscal year
Average store size (gross square footage)
Average weekly sales per store
Comparable store sales increase
(1)

(2)

Fiscal years 2014, 2013, 2011 and 2010 were 52-week years and fiscal year 2012 was a 53-week year.

Sales of a store are deemed to be comparable commencing in the fifty-third full week after the store was ope
base effective the fifty-third full week following the date of merger. Stores closed for eight or more days are exc
until re-opened for a full fiscal week. Comparable sales growth is calculated on a same-calendar-week to same-c
(2)

From page 5
Stores at beginning of fiscal year
Stores opened
Acquired stores
Relocated stores
Divested or closed stores
Stores at end of fiscal year
Stores with major expansions

(1)

Total gross square footage at end of fiscal year


Year-over-year growth
(1)Defined as square footage increases of greater than 20% completed during the fiscal year.

Sales mix:
Identical stores (1)
New and acquired stores, including relocated stores
Other retail sales, primarily stores with major expansions
Other sales, primarily non-retail external sales
Total sales
(1)

Identical store sales do not include sales from new, acquired or relocated stores or stores with major expansio

Our historical store development pipeline as of the dates indicated is summarized below:

Stores in development
Average size (gross square feet)
Total gross square footage in development
As a percentage of existing square footage

Sept. 28, 2014


$

14,194

Sept. 29, 2013


$

12,917

Sept. 30, 2012


$

Sept. 25, 2011

11,699

Sept. 26, 2010

10,108

9,006

9,150

8,288

7,543

6,571

5,870

5,044
3,586
446
67

4,629
3,285
397
52

4,156
2,983
372
47

3,537
2,629
311
41

3,136
2,377
272
38

11

12

10

11

934
-

883
-

744
-

12

11

946

894

752

552

412

367

343

286

209

166

579

551

466

343

246

548
(4)

438
(33)

579

551

466

343

240

1.57

1.48

1.28

0.98

0.72

367.8
$

1.56

371.2
$

370.5

1.47

364.8
$

374.5

1.26

350.5
$

368.9

0.97

332.5
$

354.6

343.4

0.48

1.40

0.28

0.20

499
5,744
62
3,813

892
5,538
27
3,878

1,126
5,294
24
3,802

574
4,292
18
2,991

399
38,000
722,000

012 was a 53-week year.

4.3%

362
38,000
711,000
6.9%

335
38,000
682,000
8.7%

311
38,000
636,000
8.5%

0.72

414
3,987
509
2,373

299
38,000
588,000
7.1%

l week after the store was opened. Stores acquired in purchase acquisitions enter the comparable store
for eight or more days are excluded from the comparable store base from the first fiscal week of closure
same-calendar-week to same-calendar-week basis.

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

362

335

311

299

284

34
4
(1)

26
6
(5)

25
(1)

18
(6)

16
2
-

(3)

399

362

335

311

13,779,000

12,735,000

11,832,000

15,162,000

299
11,231,000

10%

8%

8%

5%

6%

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

93.3%
6.2%
0.2%

93.5%
5.6%
0.5%

93.3%
5.4%
0.8%

94.6%
4.5%
0.5%

93.2%
5.9%
0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.4%

0.7%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

November5,

November6,

November7,

November2,

November3,

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

114

94

79

62

52

41,000
4,723,000

38,000
3,605,000

37,000
2,896,000

35,000
2,192,000

39,000
2,052,000

fiscal year.

s or stores with major expansions.

below:

31%

26%

22%

18%

18%

From page 21 of 10-K:


Targets for Fiscal Year 2015

The Company is focusing on metrics it believes are key to the long-term health of the Company. The Companys
Sales growth over 9%;
Comparable store sales growth in the low to middle single digits;
Square footage growth of 9% to 10% based on 38 to 42 new stores, including five to six relocations;
EBITDA margin of approximately 9%; and
ROIC greater than 14%.

The Company expects to continue its value strategy and to make additional investments in areas such as tech
strategy to drive sales growth over the longer term. Reflecting its ongoing value efforts, the Company expects
2014. The Company expects to maintain expense discipline and improve its cost structure, with the biggest
Results may fluctuate on a quarterly basis, but for fiscal year 2015, the Company expects annual diluted earning

The Company expects store openings to be spread fairly evenly throughout the year, with the seven former Do
the year. The Company also notes that Easter will fall in the second quarter of fiscal year 2015 versus the thir
second quarter and negatively impacting comparable store sales growth in the third quarter by an estimated 50

From page 25 of 10-K:

The following table provides information about the Companys store growth and development activitie
Stores opened during fiscal year
2013
Number of stores (including relocations)

32

Number of relocations
Percentage in new markets
Average store size (gross square feet)
Total square footage
Average pre-opening expense per store

5
31%
36,000
1,138,000
$2 million

Average pre-opening rent per store

$1 million

We believe we will produce operating cash flows in excess of the capital expenditures needed to open the 114
operated 401 stores totaling approximately 15.2 million square feet and expects to cross the 500-store mark in
stores in the United States. We have a disciplined, opportunistic real estate strategy, opening stores in existing
to expand primarily through new store openings, and while we may continue to pursue acquisitions of smaller c
such acquisitions are not expected to significantly impact our future store growth or financial results.

the Company. The Companys annual targets for fiscal year 2015 are:

ve to six relocations;

stments in areas such as technology, marketing, and new and existing stores. The Company believes this is the right
efforts, the Company expects a greater decline in gross margin, excluding LIFO, in fiscal year 2015 than in fiscal year
st structure, with the biggest savings coming from internal distribution, coordinated purchasing and labor leverage.
expects annual diluted earnings per share growth in line with or slightly higher than sales growth.

ear, with the seven former Dominicks locations re-opening as Whole Foods Market stores in the last three quarters of
scal year 2015 versus the third quarter of fiscal year 2014, positively impacting comparable store sales growth in the
rd quarter by an estimated 50 to 60 basis points.

h and development activities:


Stores opened during fiscal year
2014

Stores opened during fiscal year


2015 as of Nov. 5, 2014

38

1
55%
37,000
1,408,000
$2 million

1
0%
46,000
139,000

$1 million

ures needed to open the 114 stores in our current store development pipeline. As of November 5, 2014, the Company
o cross the 500-store mark in fiscal year 2017. Longer term, the Company sees demand for 1,200 Whole Foods Market
gy, opening stores in existing trade areas as well as new areas, including international locations. Our growth strategy is
ursue acquisitions of smaller chains that provide access to desirable geographic areas and experienced team members,
or financial results.

stores. The Company believes this is the right


ng LIFO, in fiscal year 2015 than in fiscal year
, coordinated purchasing and labor leverage.
igher than sales growth.

ods Market stores in the last three quarters of


mpacting comparable store sales growth in the

Total leases signed as of Nov. 5,


2014
114
14
17%
41,000
4,723,000

peline. As of November 5, 2014, the Company


ny sees demand for 1,200 Whole Foods Market
international locations. Our growth strategy is
raphic areas and experienced team members,

Whole Foods Market, Inc.


Consolidated Balance Sheets
(In millions)

Assets
Current assets:
Cash and cash equivalents
Short-term investments - available-for-sale securities
Restricted cash
Accounts receivable
Merchandise inventories
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
Deferred income taxes
Total current assets
Property and equipment, net of accumulated depreciation and amortization
Long-term investments - available-for-sale securities
Goodwill
Intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization
Deferred income taxes
Other assets
Total assets
Liabilities and Shareholders Equity
Current liabilities:
Current installments of capital lease obligations
Accounts payable
Accrued payroll, bonus and other benefits due team members
Dividends payable
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long-term capital lease obligations, less current installments
Deferred lease liabilities
Other long-term liabilities
Total liabilities
Commitments and contingencies
Shareholders equity:
Common stock, no par value, 600.0 shares authorized; 377.1 and 375.7 shares issued; 360.4 and 372.4
shares outstanding at 2014 and 2013, respectively
Common stock in treasury, at cost, 16.7 and 3.3 shares at 2014 and 2013, respectively
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
Retained earnings

Total shareholders equity


Total liabilities and shareholders equity

September28,

September29,

2014

2013
190 $
553
109
198
441
97

290
733
111
188
414
93

168

151

1,756
2,923
120
708
81
132

1,980
2,428
302
679
65
72

24

12

5,744 $

5,538

2 $
276
379
43

1
247
367
37

557

436

1,257
60
548

1,088
26
500

66

46

1,931

1,660

2,863

2,765

(711)
(7)
1,668

(153)
1
1,265

3,813

3,878

5,744 $

5,538

Whole Foods Market,Inc.


Consolidated Statements of Operations
Fiscal years endedSeptember28, 2014,September29, 2013andSeptember30, 2012
(In millions, except per share amounts)
2014
Sales

14,194

Cost of goods sold and occupancy costs

9,150

Gross profit
Direct store expenses
General and administrative expenses
Pre-opening expenses

5,044
3,586
446
67

Relocation, store closure and lease termination costs

11

Operating income

934

Investment and other income, net of interest expense

12

Income before income taxes

946

Provision for income taxes


Net income
Basic earnings per share

367
$

579

1.57

Weighted average shares outstanding


Diluted earnings per share

367.8
$

Weighted average shares outstanding, diluted basis


Dividends declared per common share

1.56
370.5

0.48

a) Another way to adjust for the 53-week year is to deduct 1/13 of the Q4 income numbers. For examp
Whole Foods Market,Inc.
Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income
Fiscal years endedSeptember28, 2014,September29, 2013andSeptember30, 2012
(In millions)
2014
Net income

579

Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax:


Foreign currency translation adjustments

(8)

Other comprehensive income (loss), net of tax


Comprehensive income

(8)
$

571

Adjusted
2013
$

12,917 $

2012
11,699

2012 ( 52/53)a
$

11,478.26

8,288

7,543

7,401

4,629
3,285
397
52

4,156
2,983
372
47

4,078
2,927
365
46

12

10

10

883

744

730

11

894

752

738

343

286

281

551 $

466

1.48 $

1.28

371.2
$

1.47 $
374.5

1.40 $

364.8
1.26
368.9
0.28

Q4 income numbers. For example, see page 25 of WFM's 2013 10K.

2013

2012

551 $

466

(4)

(4)

547 $

471

457

Whole Foods Market,Inc.


Consolidated Statements of Shareholders Equity
Fiscal years endedSeptember28, 2014,September29, 2013andSeptember30, 2012
(In millions)

Balances at September 25, 2011


Net income
Other comprehensive income, net of tax
Dividends ($0.28 per common share)
Issuance of common stock pursuant to team member stock plans
Purchase of treasury stock
Tax benefit related to exercise of team member stock options
Share-based payment expense
Balances at September 30, 2012
Net income
Other comprehensive loss, net of tax
Dividends ($1.40 per common share)
Issuance of common stock pursuant to team member stock plans
Purchase of treasury stock
Tax benefit related to exercise of team member stock options
Share-based payment expense
Balances at September 29, 2013
Net income
Other comprehensive loss, net of tax
Dividends ($0.48 per common share)
Issuance of common stock pursuant to team member stock plans
Purchase of treasury stock
Tax benefit related to exercise of team member stock options
Share-based payment expense
Balances at September 28, 2014

ember30, 2012

Shares
outstanding

Common
stock

Common
stock in
treasury

Accumulated
other
comprehensive
income (loss)

357.8

13.8
(0.7)
-

2,121

366
63

42

370.9

(28)
-

2,592

(28)

4.1
(2.6)
-

81
36

(125)
-

56

372.4
1.9
(13.9)
360.4

5
5
(4)
-

2,765

(153)

21
9

20
(578)
-

(8)
-

68

2,863 $

(711) $

(7)

Retained
earnings

Total
shareholders
equity
870

466
(103)
-

466
5
(103)
366
(28)
63

42

1,233

3,802

551
(519)
-

551
(4)
(519)
81
(125)
36

56

1,265

3,878

579
(176)
-

579
(8)
(176)
41
(578)
9

1,668

2,991

68
$

3,813

Whole Foods Market,Inc.


Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
Fiscal years endedSeptember28, 2014,September29, 2013andSeptember30, 2012
(In millions)

Cash flows from operating activities


Net income
Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization
Share-based payment expense
LIFO expense
Deferred income tax benefit
Excess tax benefit related to exercise of team member stock options
Accretion of premium/discount on marketable securities
Deferred lease liabilities
Other
Net change in current assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
Merchandise inventories
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
Accounts payable
Accrued payroll, bonus and other benefits due team members
Other current liabilities
Net change in other long-term liabilities
Net cash provided by operating activities
Cash flows from investing activities
Development costs of new locations
Other property and equipment expenditures
Purchase of intangible assets
Purchases of available-for-sale securities
Sales and maturities of available-for-sale securities
Decrease (increase) in restricted cash
Payment for purchase of acquired entities, net of cash acquired
Other investing activities
Net cash used in investing activities
Cash flows from financing activities
Common stock dividends paid
Issuance of common stock
Purchase of treasury stock
Excess tax benefit related to exercise of team member stock options
Payments on capital lease obligations
Net cash provided by (used in) financing activities
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents

Net change in cash and cash equivalents


Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period
Supplemental disclosure of cash flow information:
Federal and state income taxes paid

2014

2013

579 $

551

377
68
16
(78)
(9)

339
57
2
(51)
(37)

311
42
(8)
(50)

27
36
12

31
51
9

16
77
1

(14)
(41)
(4)
30
12
54

9
(42)
(17)
60
51

(30)
(37)
(2)
10
25
95

23

(4)

2012

466

1,088

1,009

920

(447)
(263)
(20)
(720)
1,054
2
(73)

(339)
(198)
(1)
(1,252)
1,534
(8)
(22)

(262)
(194)
(2)
(3,009)
2,138
(11)
-

(17)

(3)

(1)

(484)

(289)

(1,341)

(170)
42
(578)
9

(508)
81
(125)
37

(95)
370
(28)
50

(1)

(2)

(698)

(517)

297

(6)

(2)

(100)
290

201

(123)

89

212

190 $

290

89

429 $

378

202

Stores and square footage


Beginning stores
+ New stores
- Closures and relocations
=
Ending stores

2010

2011

Actual
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Forecast
2017

2018

2019

284
18
3
299

299
18
6
311

311
25
1
335

335
32
5
362

362
38
1
399

399
43
5
437

437
40
477

477
40
517

517
40
557

557
40
597

Net new stores


Sq. feet per store (1000s)
=
New square footage
+ Beginning square footage
=
Ending square footage
% Change

15
44
665
10,566
11,231

12
50
601
11,231
11,832
5.4%

24
38
903
11,832
12,735
7.6%

27
39
1,044
12,735
13,779
8.2%

37
37
1,383
13,779
15,162
10.0%

38
42
1,596
15,162
16,758
10.5%

40
42
1,680
16,758
18,438
10.0%

40
42
1,680
18,438
20,118
9.1%

40
42
1,680
20,118
21,798
8.4%

40
42
1,680
21,798
23,478
7.7%

877 $
6.1%
11,532
10,108 $
12.2%

934 $
6.6%
12,284
11,478 $
13.6%

974 $
4.3%
13,257
12,917 $
12.5%

981 $
0.7%
14,471
14,194 $
9.9%

996 $
1.5%
15,960
15,890 $
11.9%

1,016 $
2.0%
17,598
17,871 $
12.5%

1,036 $
2.0%
19,278
19,969 $
11.7%

1,057 $
2.0%
20,958
22,143 $
10.9%

1,078
2.0%
22,638
24,396
10.2%
24,396

Sales - Bottom-up
Sales/square foot ($1000s)b
% Change
Avg. gross sq. footage (1000s)
=
Sales ($M)
% Change

826 $

10,899
9,006 $

Sales - Fiscal-year basis

9,006 $

10,108 $

11,699 $

12,917 $

14,194 $

15,890 $

17,871 $

19,969 $

22,569 $

96.5 $
174.8
271.3
877.9
1,149.2 $

97.1 $
182.4
279.5
925.8
1,205.3 $

98.7 $
182.1
280.8
955.7
1,236.5 $

102.2 $
181.3
283.5
984.0
1,267.5 $

104.0 $
178.3
282.3
1,008.5
1,290.8 $

105.4 $
181.6
287.0
1,100.7
1,387.7 $

106.4 $
188.5
294.9
1,161.5
1,456.4 $

107.2 $
195.6
302.8
1,231.0
1,533.8 $

107.9
203.3
311.2
1,301.2
1,612.4

97.0%
3.0%

96.9%
3.1%

96.8%
3.2%

96.7%
3.3%

96.7%
3.3%

97.0%
3.0%

97.0%
3.0%

97.0%
3.0%

97.0%
3.0%

1.0%
0.1%
0.8%

1.1%
0.1%
0.8%

1.2%
0.1%
0.9%

1.3%
0.2%
1.0%

1.4%
0.2%
1.1%

1.4%
0.2%
1.1%

1.5%
0.2%
1.2%

1.6%
0.2%
1.3%

1.7%
0.2%
1.4%

$
$
$

15,890 $
15,860 $
15,761

17,871 $
17,738 $

19,969 $
19,922 $

$
$
$

15,700 $
15,520 $
15,920 $

17,470
17,060
18,390

Food retail industry ($B, MarketLine)


Canada
UK
Canada and UK
US
US, Canada and UK

WFM sales by region (From p. 1 of 10-K)


US
Canada and UK
US market share
Canada and UK market share
US, Canada and UK market share
Forecasts
Bottom-up
Morgan Stanley (11/6/2014)
Wedbush (11/6/2014)
Yahoo! Finance (12/17/2014)
Average estimate
Low estimate
High estimate

Notes:
a) Historical data from page 5 of 10-K; 2010 beginning square footage from page 5 of 2013 10-K
New and closed stores
2015: Outlook mentions 38 - 42 new stores, including 5 - 6 relocations
2017: Conference call and p. 25 of 10K mention expect to pass 500 stores in Fiscal 2017
Conference call and p. 25 of 10K - Long term 1,200 stores
Square footage for new stores
2015: Conference call mentions 20,000 to 60,000 sq. ft., p. 25 shows between 41 and 46K sq. ft.

Conference call for 2014Q4 mentions only one non-US store - Ottawa
b)

Growth rate based on 2014Q3 survey of professional forecasters showing about 2% forecast
for inflation of personal consumer expenditures. Uses headline rate because it is available at
longer horizons and because the core PCE excludes food expenditures, which omits WFM's
primary product.

c)

2012 and 2018 are 53-week years

22,569
22,435

204
238
255

204
238
255

From Note 8
Minimum rental commitments and sublease rental income required by all noncancelable leases are approximately as follows (in millions):
Capital
Fiscal year 2015
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal
Fiscal

year
year
year
year

2016
2017
2018
2019

5
5
5
5

Future fiscal years


Less amounts representing interest

Computations
Years listed
Years for 'thereafter'
Total years

Sublease
$

5,948
$

8,272

8
8
7
6
5
10

44

35
$

62

Capital
5
15
20

Rate

Rollforward schedule - Capital leases


Beginning balance
Interest (Rate Beginning balance)
Payment
Ending balance (PV of remaining payments)

401
458
481
491
493

72
97

Net present value of capital lease obligations

Operating
$

4.7%

2015
62 $
3
5
60 $

2016
60 $
3
5
58 $

2017
2018
58 $
56 $
3
3
5
5
56 $
53 $
Check

2019
53
3
5
51
- PV of 'Thereafter' payments

(Historical financial statements downloaded from Mergent)

Income statements
Sales (See 'Sales')
% Growtha
Cost of goods sold & occupancy costs (Excl. Stock-based comp)
% Sales
Gross profit
% Sales
Direct store expenses (Excl. Stock-based comp and Depr.)
% Sales
General & administrative expenses (Excl. Stock-based comp)
% Sales
Pre-opening expenses
Per new store (See 'Sales' for new stores)
Stock-based compensation (See Note 12)
% Sales
Depreciation and amortization of PP&E (See below)
% Sales
Relocation, store closure & lease termination cost
Per closed store (See 'Sales' for closed stores)
Pretax operating income
% Sales
Imputed tax on operating income
% Pretax income
NOPAT
Investment & other income
% Beginning cash and investments
Imputed tax on interest income
% Pretax income
After tax interest income
Interest expense (See Item 6 for historical)
Imputed tax on interest expense
% Pretax income
After tax interest expense
Preferred stock dividends
After tax interest expense and preferred dividends
Income before income taxes
Provision for income taxes
% Pretax income
Net income (loss)
Preferred stock dividends
Income available to common shareholders
NOPAT
After tax interest income
After tax interest expense and preferred dividends
Income available to common shareholders

Check
Pretax operating income
Depreciation and amortization of PP&E
EBITDA
EBIT/Sales

a) The sales growth numbers adjust the 53-week years 2012 and 2018 to a 52-week basis

Supplemental expense information


Operating expenses
% Sales
Depreciation and amortization of PP&E (Note 5)
% Prior year net PP&E
Amortization of intangibles (See Note 6)
Other (to reconcile to historical cash flow statements)
Total depreciation and amortization
Development costs of new locations (See Cash from investing)
Costs per new store (See 'Sales' for new stores)
Other property & equipment expenditures (See Cash from investing)
% Sales
Total capital expenditures
Gross stock-compensation expense
% Sales
Tax benefit (Note 12)
% Stock-compensation expense
Net stock compensation expense
Regular common dividends declared
% Prior year net income
Special dividend (See page 22)
Total common dividends
Share repurchases

Balance sheets
Net operating assets
Operating cash

% Sales
Restricted cash (related to workers' compensation per Note 2)
% Operating expenses
Accounts receivable
Days' sales outstanding
Merchandise inventories
Days' inventory on hand
Prepaid expenses & other current assets
% Operating expenses
Total operating current assets (Excluding current DTA)
Property & equipment, net (See above for Capex and Depreciation)
% Sales
Goodwill
Intangible assets, net of accumulated amortization (See above)
Deferred income taxes (Current + Long-term)
% Sales
Other assets
% Sales
Operating assets
Accounts payable
Days' purchases outstanding
Accrued payroll, bonus & other benefits due team members
% Operating expenses
Other current liabilities
% Operating expenses
Total current operating liabilities
Deferred lease liabilities
Per store (See 'Sales' ending stores)
Other liabilities
Operating liabilities
Net operating assets

Net financing
Cash & cash equivalents
Operating cash
Dividends payable
Excess cash
Short-term investments - available-for-sale securities
Long-term investments - available-for-sale securities
Net excess cash and investments
Debt & capital leases, incl. current (See 'Leases' tab)
Net debt
Common stock
Common stock in treasury, at cost
Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss)
Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)
Total common shareholders' equity
Net financing
Check

Total assets
Total liabilities
Total equity
Total liabilities and equity
Check
Outstanding shares (from Balance sheets)
Price at year-end (from Yahoo! Finance)
Market value
Debt-to-Book equity
Debt-to-Market equity
Excess cash and investments-to-Book equity
Excess cash and investments-to-Market equity

Cash flow statements


Net income (loss)
Depreciation & amortization
Loss (gain) on disposition of fixed assets
Impairment of long-lived assets
Share-based payment expense
LIFO expense (benefit)
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Excess tax benefit related to exercise of team member stock options
Accretion of premium/discount on marketable securities
Deferred lease liabilities
Other net income adjustments
Net change in current assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable
Merchandise inventories
Prepaid expenses & other current assets
Accounts payable
Accrued payroll, bonus & other benefits due team member
Other current liabilities
Other long-term assets
Other long-term liabilities
Net cash flows from operating activities
Development costs of new locations
Other property & equipment expenditures
Purchase of intangible assets
Purchase of available-for-sale securities
Sale of available-for-sale securities
Sales & maturities of available-for-sale securities
Decrease (increase) in restricted cash

Payment for purchase of acquired entities, net of cash acquired


Other investing activities
Net cash flows from investing activities
Common stock dividends paid
Preferred stock dividends paid
Issuance of common stock
Purchase of treasury stock
Excess tax benefit related to exercise of team member stock options
Proceeds from issuance of redeemable preferred stock, net
Proceeds from long-term borrowings
Payments on long-term debt & capital lease obligations
Other financing activities
Net cash flows from financing activities
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash & cash equivalents
Net change in cash & cash equivalents
Cash & cash equivalents at beginning of year
Cash & cash equivalents at end of year
Check

2010
9,006 $
5,870
65.2%
3,136
34.8%
2,091
23.2%
260
2.9%
38
2.1
23
0.3%
275
3.1%
11
3.7
438
4.9%
176
40.3%
262
7

$
$

As Reported Annual Income Statement


2011
2012
2013
10,108 $
11,699 $
12,917 $
12.2%
13.6%
12.5%
6,570
7,541
8,286
65.0%
64.5%
64.1%
3,538
4,158
4,631
35.0%
35.5%
35.9%
2,328
2,650
2,914
23.0%
22.7%
22.6%
299
354
374
3.0%
3.0%
2.9%
41
47
52
2.3
1.9
1.6
27
42
57
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
287
311
339
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
8
10
12
1.3
10.0
2.4
548
744
883
5.4%
6.4%
6.8%
207
283
339
37.9%
38.0%
38.4%
341
461
544

Fore
2014
14,194 $
9.9%
9,148
64.4%
5,046
35.6%
3,175
22.4%
414
2.9%
67
1.8
68
0.5%
377
2.7%
11
11.0
934
6.6%
362
38.8%
572

3
40.3%
4

8
1.4%
3
37.9%
5

8
1.2%
3
38.0%
5

11
0.8%
4
38.4%
7

12
0.9%
5
38.8%
7

33
13
40.3%
20
6
26

4
2
37.9%
2
2

0.0%
-

0.0%
-

0.0%
-

412
166
40.3%
246
6
240 $

552
209
37.9%
343
343 $

752
286
38.0%
466
466 $

894
343
38.4%
551
551 $

946
367
38.8%
579
579

262 $
4
26
240 $

341 $
5
2
343 $

461 $
5
466 $

544 $
7
551 $

572
7
579

2015
15,890
11.9%
10,328
65.0%
5,561
35.0%
3,496
22.0%
477
3.0%
86
2.0
79
0.5%
430
2.7%
50
10.0
944
5.9%
368
39.0%
576

$
$

438 $
275
713 $
7.9%

548 $
287
835 $
8.3%

744 $
311
1,055 $
9.0%

883 $
339
1,222 $
9.5%

934 $
377
1,311 $
9.2%

As Reported Annual Income Statement


2011
2012a
2013

2010

944
430
1,374
8.6%

Fore
2014

2015

8,568 $
95.1%

9,560 $
94.6%

10,955 $
93.6%

12,034 $
93.2%

13,260 $
93.4%

14,946
94.1%

265 $

6
4
275 $

274 $
14.5%
7
6
287 $

297 $
14.9%
6
8
311 $

324 $
14.8%
5
10
339 $

360 $
14.8%
5
12
377 $

424
14.5%
6
430

171 $
10
67
0.7%
238 $

203 $
11
85
0.8%
288 $

262 $
10
162
1.4%
424 $

339 $
11
195
1.5%
534 $

447 $
12
198
1.4%
645 $

531
12
238
1.5%
769

23 $
0.3%
9
39.1%
14 $

27 $
0.3%
10
37.0%
17 $

42 $
0.4%
16
38.1%
26 $

57 $
0.4%
22
38.6%
35 $

68 $
0.5%
26
38.2%
42 $

79
0.5%
31
39.0%
48

70 $
29.2%
70 $

103 $
30.0%
103 $

148 $
31.8%
371
519 $

176
31.9%
176

28 $

125 $

578

$
$

As Reported Annual Balance Sheet


09/25/2011
09/30/2012
09/29/2013

09/26/2010
$

Fore
9/28/2014
$

9/27/2015
$

0.0%
87
1.0%
133
5.4
323
20.1
55
0.6%
598
1,887
21.0%
665
69
200
2.2%
9
0.1%
3,428

0.0%
92
1.0%
175
6.3
337
18.7
74
0.8%
678
1,997
19.8%
663
67
171
1.7%
9
0.1%
3,585

0.0%
103
0.9%
197
6.1
374
18.1
77
0.7%
751
2,193
18.7%
663
62
175
1.5%
9
0.1%
3,853

0.0%
111
0.9%
188
5.3
414
18.2
93
0.8%
806
2,428
18.8%
679
65
223
1.7%
12
0.1%
4,213

0.0%
109
0.8%
198
5.1
441
17.6
97
0.7%
845
2,923
20.6%
708
81
300
2.1%
24
0.2%
4,881

0.0%
120
0.8%
218
5.0
495
17.5
105
0.7%
937
3,269
20.6%
708
75
270
1.7%
16
0.1%
5,275

244
2.8%
291
3.4%
748
294
1.0
63
1,105
2,323 $

237
13.1
282
2.9%
342
3.6%
861
355
1.1
50
1,266
2,319 $

247
11.9
307
2.8%
396
3.6%
950
441
1.3
51
1,442
2,411 $

247
10.8
367
3.0%
436
3.6%
1,050
500
1.4
46
1,596
2,617 $

276
11.0
379
2.9%
557
4.2%
1,212
548
1.4
66
1,826
3,055 $

313
11.0
448
3.0%
598
4.0%
1,359
612
1.4
60
2,031
3,244

132 $
132
331
96
559

212 $
(18)
194
442
53
689

89 $
(26)
63
1,131
221
1,415

290 $
(37)
253
733
302
1,288

190
(43)
147
553
120
820

213

508
(51)

1,774
1
599
2,374
2,323 $
-

17
(672)
2,121
870
2,991
2,319 $
-

24
(1,391)
2,593
(29)
5
1,233
3,802
2,411 $
-

27
(1,261)
2,765
(153)
1
1,265
3,878
2,617 $
-

62
(758)
2,863
(711)
(7)
1,668
3,813
3,055
-

$
$
$

$
$

3,987 $
1,613 $
2,374
3,987 $
-

4,292 $
1,301 $
2,991
4,292 $
-

5,294 $
1,492 $
3,802
5,294 $
-

5,538 $
1,660 $
3,878
5,538 $
-

5,744
1,931
3,813
5,744
-

172.0
37.53 $
6,455 $

178.9
71.57 $
12,804 $

185.4
97.49 $
18,075 $

372.4
58.50 $
21,785 $

360.4
37.56
13,537

0.214
0.079

0.006
0.001

0.006
0.001

0.007
0.001

0.016
0.005

0.24
0.09

0.23
0.05

0.37
0.08

0.33
0.06

0.22
0.06

2013
551 $
339
57
2
(51)
(37)
31
51
9

2014
579
377
68
16
(78)
(9)
27
36
12

2010
246 $
275
2
23
(7)
(34)
(3)
40
(2)

As Reported Annual Cash Flow


2011
2012a
343 $
466 $
287
311
2
2
1
27
42
10
20
(8)
(23)
(50)
16
53
77
6
(1)

(28)
(3)
(2)
23
36
20
(1)
585

(35)
(23)
(19)
24
37
54
(9)
755

(30)
(37)
(2)
10
25
95
4
920

9
(42)
(17)
60
51
(4)
1,009

(14)
(41)
(4)
30
12
54
23
1,088

(171)
(85)
(2)
(1,072)
646
(16)

(203)
(162)
(5)
(1,229)
1,156
(5)

(262)
(194)
(2)
(3,009)
2,138
(11)

(339)
(198)
(1)
(1,252)
1,534
(8)

(447)
(263)
(20)
(720)
1,054
2

(14)
(1)
(715)

(2)
(1)
(451)

(9)
47
3
(210)
(169)
1
(298)
430
132 $
-

(52)
297
23
(491)
(223)
(1)
80
132
212 $
-

(1)
(1,341)
(95)
370
(28)
50
297
1
(123)
212
89 $
-

(22)
(3)
(289)

(73)
(17)
(484)

(508)
81
(125)
37
(2)
(517)
(2)
201
89
290 $
-

(170)
42
(578)
9
(1)
(698)
(6)
(100)
290
190
-

NOTES:

2016
17,871 $
12.5%
11,616
65.0%
6,255
35.0%
3,932
22.0%
536
3.0%
80
2.0
89
0.5%
479
2.7%
10.0
1,139
6.4%
444
39.0%
695

Forecast
2017
19,969 $
11.7%
12,980
65.0%
6,989
35.0%
4,393
22.0%
599
3.0%
80
2.0
100
0.5%
524
2.6%
10.0
1,293
6.5%
504
39.0%
789

2018
22,569 $
10.9%
14,670
65.0%
7,899
35.0%
4,965
22.0%
677
3.0%
80
2.0
113
0.5%
571
2.5%
10.0
1,493
6.6%
582
39.0%
910

2019
24,396
10.2%
15,858
65.0% Conference call verifies 35-35% margin (Charles Grom); ca
8,539
35.0%
5,367
22.0% Based on historical
732
3.0%
80
2.0 Based on historical, per-store
122
0.5% Based on historical % sales
621
2.5%
10.0 Based on historical, per-store
1,616
6.6%
630
39.0% Based on historical
986

$
$

1,139 $
479
1,618 $
9.1%

1,293 $
524
1,817 $
9.1%

Forecast
2017

2016

1,493 $
571
2,064 $
9.1%

2018b

2019

16,732 $
93.6%

18,676 $
93.5%

21,076 $
93.4%

474 $
14.5%
5
479 $

519 $
14.5%
5
524 $

566 $
14.5%
5
571 $

519 $
13
268
1.5%
787 $

545 $
14
300
1.5%
844 $

572 $
14
339
1.5%
910 $

89 $
0.5%
35
39.0%
55 $

100 $
0.5%
39
39.0%
61 $

113 $
0.5%
44
39.0%
69 $

$
$

$
$

Forecast
9/24/2017

9/25/2016
$

9/30/2018
$

1,616
621
2,238
9.2%

22,780
93.4%
616
14.5% Based on historical
5
621
601
15 Historical with 5% annual increase
366
1.5% Based on historical
966
122
0.5%
48
39.0% Based on historical
74

9/29/2019
$

0.0%
134
0.8%
245
5.0
557
17.5
117
0.7%
1,053
3,581
20.0%
708
70
304
1.7%
18
0.1%
5,734

0.0%
149
0.8%
274
5.0
622
17.5
131
0.7%
1,176
3,906
19.6%
708
65
339
1.7%
20
0.1%
6,215

0.0%
169
0.8%
309
5.0
703
17.5
148
0.7%
1,329
4,250
18.8%
708
60
384
1.7%
23
0.1%
6,753

0.0%
182
0.8%
334
5.0
760
17.5
159
0.7%
1,436
4,601
18.9%
708
55
415
1.7%
24
0.1%
7,239

352
11.0
502
3.0%
669
4.0%
1,523
668
1.40
60
2,251
3,483 $

393
11.0
560
3.0%
747
4.0%
1,700
724
1.40
60
2,484
3,731 $

445
11.0
632
3.0%
843
4.0%
1,920
780
1.40
60
2,760
3,994 $

480
11.0
683
3.0%
911
4.0%
2,074
836
1.40
60
2,970
4,269

% margin (Charles Grom); call mentions ex-LIFO, but LIFO expense is tiny

Summary statistics
As Reported Annual Income Statement
Sales
Operating expenses
Pretax operating income
Imputed tax on operating income
NOPAT
After tax interest income
After tax interest expense and preferred dividends
Income available to common shareholders
Check

2011

2012

2013

9,006 $
8,568
438
176
262
4
26
240 $
-

10,108 $
9,560
548
207
341
5
2
343 $
-

11,699 $
10,955
744
283
461
5
466 $
-

12,917
12,034
883
339
544
7
551
-

Total assets

3,987 $

4,292 $

5,294 $

5,538

Net excess cash and investments


Debt & capital leases, incl. current (See 'Leases' tab)
Net debt
Total common shareholders' equity
Net financing = Net operating assets
Check

559 $
508
(51)
2,374
2,323 $
-

689 $
17
(672)
2,991
2,319 $
-

1,415 $
24
(1,391)
3,802
2,411 $
-

1,288
27
(1,261)
3,878
2,617
-

NOPAT profit margin (NOPAT/Sales)


NOA turnover (Sales/Avg. NOA)
=
RNOA

2010

RNOA
Borrowing rate (Int. and pref'd/Avg. Outside financing)
Spread
Leverage (Avg. Outside/Avg. Equity)
Impact of outside financing on ROE

Rate of return on cash and investments


- RNOA

3.4%
4.36
14.7%

3.9%
4.95
19.5%

4.2%
5.14
21.6%

14.7%
0.9%
13.7%
0.10
1.3%

19.5%
0.0%
19.5%
0.01
0.1%

21.6%
0.0%
21.6%
0.01
0.1%

0.8%
14.7%

0.5%
19.5%

0.5%
21.6%

= Spread
Investments (Avg. Investments/Avg. Equity)
=
Impact of investments on ROE
RNOA
Impact of outside financing on ROE
Impact of investments on ROE
ROE
Check
ROA profit margin (NOPAT+Investment income/Sales)
Asset turnover (Sales/Avg. Assets)
=
ROA
Check
Net Income
Average NOA + Cash and investments
=
Return on invested capital (approx. WFM definition)

Shortcut - Forecast sales and summary ratios

-13.9%
0.23
-3.2%

-19.0%
0.31
-5.9%

-21.1%
0.35
-7.4%

14.7%
1.3%
-3.2%
12.8%
-

19.5%
0.1%
-5.9%
13.7%
-

21.6%
0.1%
-7.4%
14.3%
-

3.4%
2.44
8.3%
-

4.0%
2.44
9.7%
-

4.3%
2.38
10.2%
-

343 $
2,945
11.6%

466 $
3,417
13.6%

551
3,866
14.3%

As Reported Annual Income Statement


2010

2011

2012

2013

Sales
NOPAT margin
NOA Turnover

10,108 $
3.4%
4.36

11,699 $
3.9%
4.95

12,917
4.2%
5.14

Sales
NOPAT margin
=
NOPAT

10,108 $
3.4%
341 $

11,699 $
3.9%
461 $

12,917
4.2%
544

10,108 $
4.36
2,321
2
2,323
2,319 $

11,699 $
4.95
2,365
###
2,319
2,411 $

12,917
5.14
2,514
2
2,411
2,617

Sales
NOA Turnover
Avg. NOA
2
Beginning NOA
Ending NOA

$
$

tement

Forecast
$

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018b

14,194 $
13,260
934
362
572 $
7
579
-

15,890 $
14,946
944
368
576 $

17,871 $
16,732
1,139
444
695 $

19,969 $
18,676
1,293
504
789 $

22,569 $
21,076
1,493
582
910 $

24,396
22,780
1,616
630
986

3,244 $

3,483 $

3,731 $

3,994 $

4,269

3.6%
5.05
18.3%

3.9%
5.31
20.7%

3.9%
5.54
21.9%

4.0%
5.84
23.6%

4.0%
5.91
23.9%

5,744

820
62
(758)
3,813
3,055 $
-

4.0%
5.00
20.2%
20.2%
0.0%
20.2%
0.01
0.2%
0.7%
20.2%

2019

-19.5%
0.27
-5.3%
20.2%
0.2%
-5.3%
15.1%
4.1%
2.52
10.3%
$

579
3,890
14.9%

tement

Forecast
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018b

14,194 $
4.0%
5.00

15,890 $
4.0%
4.50

17,871 $
4.0%
4.50

19,969 $
4.0%
4.50

22,569 $
4.0%
4.50

24,396
4.0%
4.50

14,194 $
4.0%
572 $

15,890 $
4.0%
636 $

17,871 $
4.0%
715 $

19,969 $
4.0%
799 $

22,569 $
4.0%
903 $

24,396
4.0%
976

14,194 $
5.00
2,836
2
2,617
3,055 $

15,890 $
4.50
3,531
###
3,055
4,007 $

17,871 $
4.50
3,971
2
4,007
3,936 $

19,969 $
4.50
4,437
2
3,936
4,939 $

22,569 $
4.50
5,015
2
4,939
5,091 $

24,396
4.50
5,421
2
5,091
5,752

$
$

2019

Comparables' unlevered cost of capital


Using Comparables from ThomsonONE - Under "Fundamentals" menu itema
Unless otherwise noted, data are from the respective companies' 10Ks.
($ millions)
Fiscal year-end
Closest fiscal year endb
Sales
Depreciation and amortization
Other operating expenses
Pretax operating profit
Tax (based on ETR)
NOPAT
After-tax interest income (tax based on ETR)
After-tax interest expense (tax based on ETR)
Earnings attributable to non-controlling interests
Other (Discontinued operations and Debt extinguishment)
Net income attributable to common shareholders
Beginning balance sheet data:
Debt and capital leases
Noncontrolling interests
Total outside financing
Cash and investments
Net debt
Common equity
Net financing = Net operating assets
Market value of debt and capital leases
Ending balance sheet data:
Debt and capital leases
Noncontrolling interests
Total outside financing
Cash and investments
Net debt
Common equity
Net financing = Net operating assets
Market value of debt and capital leases
Interest expense
Average market debt and capital leases
Estimated interest rate for WACCc
Interest incomed
Average cash and investments

Estimated interest rate


Price at year-end (From Yahoo! Finance)
Shares outstandinge
Market value of outstanding equityf
Ending noncontrolling interests
Ending market value of debt and capital leases
Total firm value
Ending cash and investments
Value of operations
Beta (From Yahoo! Finance)g
Market risk premium
Excess return
10-Year Treasury rate at year-end (from www.treasury.gov)
Equity return
Unlevered cost of capitalh
Market value-weighted average of WFM and comparables
Debt-to-Value of operations
Market value-weighted average of WFM and comparables
Debt-to-NOA
Market value-weighted average of WFM and comparables
Ratio comparisons
Profit margin (NOPAT/Sales)
NOA Turnover (Sales/Average NOA)
RNOA
ROE (Net income/Average equity)
Market value of equity
Net income
Price/Earnings ratio
Market value of equity
Book value of equity
Market-to-book ratio
Pretax operating profit
Depreciation and amortization
EBITDA
Market value of firm
Value-to-EBITDA ratio

a) Excluded Supervalu (SVU), Sysco (SYY), United Natural Foods (UNFI) because they are distributors. Amcon has a retail se
rather than a direct competitor. Royal Ahold has large portion of sales outside US, Canada, and UK. Costco has a large portion

b) You can also use quarterly reports to adjust to a period that more closely overlaps with WFM's reporting period.
c) You can also use the discussion in MD&A to get weighted average interest rates (sometimes excludes capital leases).

d) For SWY, assuming that reported "Other income" is interest and investment income (e.g., MD&A attributes change in this ite
e) Where applicable (KR, SWY), computing Shares outstanding as Issued - Treasury shares.

f) Technically, the market value of equity claims should also include value of outstanding options and restricted stock since thes
Journal of Applied Corporate Finance).

g) For SFM, used beta of 1.2 from 11/7/2014 Morgan Stanley report rather than the -11 beta from Yahoo! Finance since the -11
unreasonable, and is likely based on a simple regression rather than a forward-looking beta.

For TFM, used beta of 1.0 from 11/20/2014 Morgan Stanley report rather than the 0.37 beta from Yahoo! Finance since the 0
h) Use the formula from Class 13.

Whole Foods (WFM)


September
9/28/2014
$

$
$

$
$

Kroger (KR)
January
2/1/2014

Safeway (SWY)
December
12/28/2013

Fresh Market (TFM)


January
1/26/2014

14,194 $
(377)
(13,637)
934
(362)
572
7
579 $

98,375 $
(1,703)
(93,947)
2,725
(897)
1,828
(297)
(12)
###
1,519 $

36,139 $
(944)
(34,601)
594
(159)
436
11
(200)
(15)
3,276
3,508 $

1,512
(55)
(1,373)
83
(30)
53
(2)
51

27 $
27
1,288
(1,261)
3,878
2,617 $
27 $

8,879 $
7
8,886
1,193
7,693
4,207
11,900 $
9,742 $

5,574 $
6
5,579
352
5,227
2,904
8,131 $
5,856 $

44
44
9
35
198
233
44

62 $
62
820
(758)
3,813
3,055 $
62 $

11,310 $
11
11,321
1,359
9,962
5,384
15,346 $
12,077 $

4,193 $
56
4,249
4,647
(399)
5,820
5,421 $
4,375 $

51
51
12
39
256
295
51

443
10,910

273
5,115

4.1%

5.3%

45
0.0%
12
1,054

1,276

31
2,500

4
47
8.0%
10

1.1%

0.0%

1.2%

37.56 $
360.4
13,537
62
13,599
820
12,779

36.10 $
508
18,339
11
12,077
30,427
1,359
29,068

32.50 $
230
7,478
56
4,375
11,908
4,647
7,261

1.03
6.0%

1.22
6.0%

0.91
6.0%

1.00
6.0%

2.50%
8.68%

2.67%
9.99%

3.02%
8.48%

2.78%
8.78%

41.5%

60.2%

2.9%

4.0%
5.00
20.2%

1.9%
7.22
13.4%

1.2%
5.33
6.4%

3.5%
5.72
20.1%

15.1%

31.7%

80.4%

22.4%

13,537 $
579
23.4

18,339 $
1,519
12.1

7,478 $
3,508
2.1

1,692
51
33.3

13,537 $
3,813
3.6

18,339 $
5,384
3.4

7,478 $
5,820
1.3

1,692
256
6.6

934 $
377
1,311
13,599
10.4

2,725 $
1,703
4,428
30,427
6.9

594 $
944
1,538
11,908
7.7

83
55
138
1,743
12.6

0.0%
35.06
48
1,692
51
1,743
12
1,731

8.9%
0.5%
29.9%

53.8%

ause they are distributors. Amcon has a retail segment, but it represents a tiny fraction of tis overall sales. Also, UNFI is WFM's main supplie
US, Canada, and UK. Costco has a large portion of non-grocery sales.

erlaps with WFM's reporting period.

ates (sometimes excludes capital leases).


income (e.g., MD&A attributes change in this item to interest income).

easury shares.

utstanding options and restricted stock since these are equity claims not reflected in the market value (See, e.g., Holthausen and Zmijewski

n the -11 beta from Yahoo! Finance since the -11 implies negative expected returns, which is
rd-looking beta.

n the 0.37 beta from Yahoo! Finance since the 0.37 seems unreasonable

Sprouts (SFM)
December
12/29/2013
$

$
$

$
$

2,438
(47)
(2,251)
140
(55)
85
(23)
(11)
51

3,910
3,910
67
3,843
387
4,229
3,910

431
431
78
353
514
867
431
37
2,170
1.7%
72

0.0%
$

38.03
148
5,614
431
6,045
78
5,967
1.20
6.0%
2.99%
10.19%

7.2%

3.5%
0.96
3.4%
11.4%
$

5,614
51
109.4

5,614
514
10.9

140
47
187
6,045
32.3

, UNFI is WFM's main supplier

g., Holthausen and Zmijewski 2012

Assumptions
From 'Assumptions'
Unlevered cost of capital
Cost of debt
Tax rate on interest
Target leverage
WACC (Nominal)
Terminal growth rate (nominal)
Terminal RONIC (nominal)
Shares outstanding at 9/28/2014

8.87%
4.75%
39.00%
29.92%
8.32%
4.24%
10.00%
360.4

Residual income valuation


2014
Ending Net operating assets
NOPAT
- Rate Beginning NOA
=
Residual income
+ Terminal value of firm
- Beginning NOA
=
Total

+
=
+

3,055

7,966
3,055
11,021
820
62
11,779
360.4
32.68

Terminal value of
residual income

Present value of future residual income


Net operating assets
Total value of operations
Value of excess cash and investments
Value of debt
Value of total equity
Shares outstanding
Value per share

Free Cash flow valuation


2014
NOPAT
- Change in NOA
=
Free cash flows
+ Terminal value
=
Total
Present value of future free cash flows

11,021

Check vs. residual income

Reconcile to existing debt


Target leverage
WACC

Ending Net operating assets

0.6% See NOTE below.


8.9%

2014
3,055

NOPAT
- Rate Beginning shareholders equity
=
Residual income
+ Terminal value of firm
Terminal value of
residual income
- Beginning NOA
=
Total

+
=

=
-

Present value of future residual income


Net operating assets
Total value of operations
Target leverage
Implied debt
Actual debt
Difference

Total value of operations


+ Value of excess cash and investments
- Value of debt
=
Value of total equity
Shares outstanding
Value per share

6,959
3,055
10,014
0.6%
62
62
0

10,014
820
62
10,772
360.4
29.89

NOTE: Leave the target leverage of 0.6% untouched or make a copy of the spreadsheet when trying different numbrers. I
correctly, the 0.6% rate is the target leverage ratio that will result in valuation that is consistent with the 9/28/2014 debt be

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 (T+1)

3,244 $

3,483 $

3,731 $

3,994 $

576 $
254
322
322 $

695 $
270
425
###
###
425 $

789 $
290
499
499 $

910 $
310
600
600 $

986 $
332
654
13,271
4,269
9,656

1,028

2015
576 $
189
387
387 $

2016
695 $
239
456
###
456 $

2017
789 $
248
541
541 $

2018
910 $
263
647
647 $

2019
986 $
275
711
13,271
13,982

2020 (T+1)
1,028

4,269

NOTE below.

$
$

2015
3,244 $

2016
3,483 $

2017
3,731 $

2018
3,994 $

576 $
270
306
306 $

695 $
288
407
###
###
407 $

789 $
309
480
480 $

910 $
331
579
579 $

eadsheet when trying different numbrers. If you make the other computations
at is consistent with the 9/28/2014 debt being at the target

2019
4,269
986 $
354
632
12,118
4,269
8,481

2020 (T+1)

1,028

Assumptions
From 'Assumptions'
Unlevered cost of capital
Cost of debt
Tax rate on interest
Terminal growth rate (nominal)
Terminal RONIC (nominal)
Shares outstanding at 9/28/2014

8.87%
4.75%
39.00%
4.24%
10.00%
360.4

Interest tax shields


Ending Net operating assets

=
+
=

2014
3,055

28

2014
3,055

Beginning Net operating assets


Leverage (Debt/Net operating assets)
Beginning debt
Interest rate
Interest expense
Tax rate
Interest tax shield
Terminal value
Total
Present value of future interest tax shields

Residual income valuation


Ending Net operating assets
NOPAT
- Rate Beginning NOA
=
Residual income
+ Terminal value of firm
- Beginning NOA
=
Total

+
=
+
=
+
=

Terminal value of
residual income

Present value of future residual income


Net operating assets
Total value of operations
Value of interest tax shields
Firm value including interest tax shields
Value of excess cash and investments
Total firm value

6,940
3,055
9,995
28
10,023
820
10,843

- Value of debt
=
Value of total equity
Shares outstanding
=
Value per share

62
10,781
360.4
29.91

Free Cash flow valuation


2014
NOPAT
- Change in NOA
=
Free cash flow
+ Terminal value
=
Total
Present value of future free cash flows
Check vs. residual income

9,995

2015
3,244 $

2016
3,483 $

2017
3,731 $

2018
3,994 $

2019
4,269

3,055 $
2.0%
61
4.7%
3
39.0%
1
1 $

3,244 $
2.0%
65
4.7%
3
39.0%
1
1 $

3,483 $
2.0%
70
4.7%
3
39.0%
1
1 $

3,731 $
2.0%
75
4.7%
4
39.0%
1
1 $

3,994
2.0%
80
4.7%
4
39.0%
1
35
36

2015
3,244 $

2016
3,483 $

2017
3,731 $

2018
3,994 $

2019
4,269

576 $
270
306
306 $

695 $
288
407
407 $

789 $
309
480
480 $

910 $
331
579
579 $

$
$

986 $
354
632
12,096
4,269
8,459

2020 (T+1)

1,028

2015
576 $
189
387
387 $

2016
695 $
239
456
456 $

2017
789 $
248
541
541 $

2018
910 $
263
647
647 $

2019
986 $
275
711
12,096
12,807

2020 (T+1)
1,028

Assumptions
Discount rates:
Unlevered cost of capital - Operations (See 'CostOfCapital')
Cost of debt (See 'Leases')
Tax rate on interest
Target leverage (See 'CostOfCapital')
WACC (Nominal)

8.87%
4.75%
39.00%
29.92%
8.32%

Terminal growth rate:


Terminal growth rate (real)
Inflation (Fed target)
Terminal growth rate (nominal)

2.20%
2.00%
4.24%

RONIC (RNOA on terminal period investments)


Current price and shares
Shares outstanding at 9/28/2014
Price at 9/29/2014
Market value
Book value
Book-to-Market

10.00%

$
$
$

360.4
37.56
13,537
3,813
3.55

From DCF (Exhibit 7)


EBIT
Less: Tax Effect
NOPAT
Less: Free cash flows
Increase/(Decrease) in NOA

2013
883.0 $
342.6
540.4
403.4
137.0 $

2014
950.0
368.6
581.4
308.4
273.0

Computation of NOA (From Exhibit 5)


Debt - Current
Debt - Long-term
Dividends payable
Cash and cash equivalents
ST Investments
LT Investments
Net debt
Stockholders' equity
Net financing = NOA
Change in NOA from balance sheet
Change in NOA computed from Exhibit 7
Difference (Verify consistency with DCF)

2014
2.0
60.0
43.0
(190.0)
(553.0)
(120.0)
(758.0)
3,813.0
3,055.0

$
$
$

2015
1,046.8 $
406.2
640.6
269.2
371.4 $

2016
1,206.3 $
468.0
738.3
322.1
416.2 $

2017
1,404.6 $
545.0
859.6
402.1
457.5 $

2018
1,637.8 $
635.5
1,002.3
492.4
509.9 $

2019
1,844.4
715.6
1,128.8
1,192.2
(63.4)

2015
2.0
60.0
43.0
(220.9)
(553.0)
(120.0)
(788.9)
4,215.3
3,426.4 $

2016
### $
###
###
(257.6)
###
###
(825.6)
4,668.2
3,842.6 $

2017
2.0 $
60.0
43.0
(300.0)
(553.0)
(120.0)
(868.0)
5,168.2
4,300.2 $

2018
2.0
60.0
43.0
(355.9)
(553.0)
(120.0)
(923.9)
5,734.1
4,810.2 $

2019

371.4 $
371.4
(0.0) $

416.2 $
416.2
0.0 $

457.6 $
457.5
0.1 $

510.0
509.9
0.1

4,746.8 2019 NOA implied by 2018

19 NOA implied by 2018 ending and -64.4 2019 change in NOA

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