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JAERD
Case Study
Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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Range
13-May
Category
Low
13.1-21
Medium
21.1-29
High
Highest
Country
Azerbaijan, China, Malaysia, Paraguay, Trinidad & Tobago, Gabon,
Mauritius, El Salvador, Kyrgyz Republic, South Africa,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Panama, Guyana, Peru, Ecuador,
Honduras, Thailand, Suriname, Ghana, Nicaragua, Armenia,
Dominican Republic, Swaziland, Mauritania, Vietnam, Congo, Rep.,
Mongolia, Lesotho, Indonesia, Philippines, Bolivia, Guatemala.
Namibia, Botswana, Senegal, Sri Lanka, Benin Gambia The,
Nigeria, Tajikistan, Uganda, Mali, Guinea, Malawi, Burkina Faso,
Zimbabwe, Cameroon, Cte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, North
Korea, Togo, Kenya, Tanzania, Cambodia Lao PDR, Pakistan,
Rwanda, Nepal.
Sudan, Djibouti, Niger, Madagascar, India, Mozambique, Zambia,
Bangladesh, Angola, Yemen Rep., Sierra Leone, Comoros, Central
African Rep., Timor-Leste, Chad, Ethiopia.
Haiti, Eritrea, Burundi.
Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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Table 2. Poverty Headcount Ratio, at $1.25 a Day, Across Regions of World (2010)
Regions
Percentage
12.50
0.70
5.50
2.40
31.00
48.50
st
Range
90-70
Category
High
69-50
Medium
49-30
Lower
Medium
Less than 30
Low
Country
United States, Norway, France ,Austria, Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, Canada,
New Zealand, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Australia, Singapore,
Israel, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, Portugal, Italy, Czech Republic, South Korea,
Greece, Chile.
Hungary, Brazil, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay, Romania, Malaysia, Argentina,
Costa Rica Slovakia, Turkey, South Africa, Russia, Venezuela, China, Botswana,
Panama, Thailand, Belarus, Tunisia, Ukraine, Serbia, Peru, Bulgaria, Colombia,
Paraguay, Jordan, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Ecuador, Kazakhstan.
Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Honduras, El Salvador, Philippines, Bolivia, Indonesia, Ghana,
Algeria, Guatemala, India, Azerbaijan, Nicaragua, Uzbekistan, Myanmar, Pakistan,
Cote dIvoire, Uganda, Cameroon, Syria Kenya, Bangladesh, Senegal, Tajikistan,
Nepal, Benin, Nigeria, Guinea, Angola, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Niger.
Mozambique, Yemen, Tanzania, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Malawi,
Zambia, Haiti, Mali, Burundi, Sudan, Togo, Chad, Congo (Dem. Rep.).
Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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Indicators
Percentage of children under 5 years of age who are stunted
Percentage of children under 5 years of age affected by wasting
Percentage of children under 5 years of age who are underweight
1990
66.2
21.3
59.5
1997
48.5
19.3
41.1
1999
51.0
19.8
44.4
2006
47.9
20.0
43.5
Source: FAOSTAT
Table 5. Correlation Coefficient between Undernourishment, Food Supply and Food Prices In India since 1990-2006
Variable
Prevalence
of
undernourishment
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Domestic Food Price Level Index
Volatility
Per Capita Food Production Variability
1
-0.56**
-0.59*
0.66*
Per
capita
production
variability
food
Prevalence of Undernourishment
Constant
Domestic Food Price Level Index Volatility
R2
Adj. R2
F
Coefficient
22.60
-0.11
0.32
0.27
0.02
Prob.
0.00
0.02
Prevalence of undernourishment
Constant
Per Capita Food Production Variability
R2
Adj. R2
F
Coefficient
22.18
-0.41
0.35
0.30
0.02
Prob.
0.00
0.02
Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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Table 8. Rank Wise List of States According Affordability, Availability and Food Absorption
State
Kerala
Haryana
Punjab
Maharashtra
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka
Gujarat
Andhra Pradesh
Madhya Pradesh
Rajasthan
West Bengal
Chhattisgarh
Uttar Pradesh
Odisha
Jharkhand
Assam
Bihar
Affordability
92
79
78
76
68
63
59
59
48
47
40
37
33
29
20
13
0
State
Punjab
Assam
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Bihar
Kerala
Haryana
Odisha
Rajasthan
Karnataka
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Chhattisgarh
Andhra Pradesh
Tamil Nadu
Gujarat
Jharkhand
Availability
51
42
41
40
39
39
31
24
22
20
18
16
15
14
13
10
5
State
Tamil Nadu
Andhra Pradesh
Gujarat
Haryana
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Punjab
Rajasthan
Kerala
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Madhya Pradesh
Chhattisgarh
Odisha
Jharkhand
Assam
Bihar
Food Absorption
100
87
86
85
84
82
62
48
33
30
28
25
22
12
11
8
0
State
Punjab
Kerala
Haryana
Maharashtra
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka
Andhra
Pradesh
Gujarat
West Bengal
FSI
63
59
58
50
48
46
42
40
39
State
Uttar Pradesh
Rajasthan
Madhya
Pradesh
Assam
Odisha
Chhattisgarh
Bihar
Jharkhand
FSI
37
36
31
26
24
24
18
12
Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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States
Andhra Pradesh, Delhi, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Punjab, Sikkim, Puducherry,
Andaman & Nicobar, Daman, Lakshadweep
Gujarat, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Maharashtra, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Rajasthan,
Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttarakhand, West Bengal
Chandigarh, Mizoram, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka
Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Dadra & Nagar Havelli, Jharkhand,
Madhya Pradesh, Manipur, Odisha,
Source: Press Note on Poverty Estimates 2011-12 (2013), Government of India, Planning Commission.
Table 11. Demand Projections Based on Households Consumption Approach (In million
tons)
Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
Rice
94.33
95.49
96.64
97.78
Wheat
75.39
76.32
77.24
78.15
Source: Kumar et al (2009)
Coarse
cereals
28.15
28.5
28.84
29.18
Cereals
197.9
200.3
202.7
205.1
Pulses
12.89
13.04
13.2
13.36
Food grains
210.8
213.4
215.9
218.5
Table 12. Supply Projections Based on Multiple Regression Method (In million tons)
Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
Rice
99.17
100.38
101.6
102.81
Wheat
87.84
89.57
91.3
93.02
Coarse cereals
41.39
42.2
43.01
43.82
Cereals
228.4
232.15
235.91
239.66
Pulses
17.67
18.12
18.58
19.03
Food grains
246.07
250.28
254.48
258.69
Table 13. Demand Supply Gap of Food Grains Based on Projected Supply and Demand (In
million tons)
Year
Rice
Wheat
2013
2014
2015
2016
4.84
4.89
4.96
5.03
12.45
13.25
14.06
14.87
Coarse
cereals
13.24
13.7
14.17
14.64
Cereals
Pulses
Food grains
30.5
31.85
33.21
34.56
4.78
5.08
5.38
5.67
35.27
36.88
38.58
40.19
Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
Rice
102.23
103.51
104.79
106.06
Wheat
81.71
82.74
83.76
84.77
Coarse Cereals
30.51
30.89
31.27
31.65
Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
Rice
-3.06
-3.13
-3.19
-3.25
Wheat
6.13
6.83
7.54
8.25
Coarse Cereals
10.88
11.31
11.74
12.17
Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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Table 16. Net Availability, Procurement and Public Distribution of Foodgrains (in million tons)
Year
1
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Net
Production
of
Food
Grain
2
154.3
147.3
157.5
161.2
167.6
157.9
174.5
168.2
178.2
183.6
172.2
186.2
152.9
186.5
173.6
182.5
190.1
210.2
205.2
190.8
214.2
Net
Net
imports Availability
of
Food
Grains
3
4
(-)0.1
158.6
(-)0.4
148.5
3.1
149.8
1.1
154.8
(-)2.6
166.7
(-)3.1
163.3
(-)0.1
176.2
(-)2.5
159.6
(-)1.3
169.4
(-)1.4
168.3
(-)2.9
156.9
(-)6.7
189.5
(-)5.5
170.6
(-)6.5
183.3
(-)6.0
170
(-)2.3
181.9
(-)4.7
183.7
(-)9.7
183.5
(-)4.1
189.5
(-)2.2
189.2
(-)2.9
203.1
Procurement
Public
distribution
Col 3 as
percentage
of Col 4
Col 5 as
percentage
of Col 2
Col 6 as
percentage
of Col 4
5
19.6
17.9
28.1
26
22.6
19.8
23.6
26.3
30.8
35.6
42.6
40.3
34.5
41.1
41.5
37
35.8
54.2
60.5
56.1
64.5
6
20.8
18.8
16.4
14
15.3
18.3
17.8
18.6
17.7
13
13.2
18.2
23.2
28.3
31
31.8
32.8
34.7
41.3
43.7
47.9
7
...
(-)0.3
2.1
0.7
(-)1.6
(-)1.9
...
(-)1.6
(-)0.8
(-)0.8
(-)1.8
(-)3.5
(-)2.8
(-)3.5
(-)3.5
(-)1.3
(-)2.6
(-)5.3
(-)2.2
(-)1.2
(-)1.4
8
12.7
12.2
17.9
16.1
13.5
12.5
13.5
15.6
17.3
19.4
24.7
21.7
22.6
22
23.9
20.3
18.8
25.8
29.5
29.4
30.1
9
13.1
12.7
10.9
9.1
9
11.2
10.1
11.1
9.9
7.7
8.4
9.6
13.2
15.5
18.2
17.5
17.8
18.9
21.8
23.1
23.6
Figure 1. State Wise Storage Capacity Available with Different Storage Agencies in the Country (As on 1.04.2007 in million
tons)
Source: Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Govt. of India Website.
Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option
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Food security in India and States: key challenges and policy option