MODIFICATIONS to DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

HOMER N. MEAD'
MEMBER AIME

VENEZUELAN ATLANTIC REFINING CO.

CARACAS, VENEZUELA

T. P. 4200
ABSTRACT
This report develops equations for decline curve
analysis based upon the premise that the rate of change
of the reciprocal of decline for succeeding time intervals is constant when the reservoir is vroduced under a
fixed set of conditions. A method is shown for predicting maximum production rate against cumulative production for any reservoir. A method is also presented
for predicting future production rate by an analysis of
past production performance after decline has heen established.
INTRODUCTION
No significant contribution to the analysis of decline
curves by the loss-ratio method has been made since
J. J. Arps' paper'. The concept of loss-ratio that was
developed by Arps and his contemporaries has been redefined in another way and the concept of instantaneous
loss-ratio at time zero has been added. In the mathematical development by Arps, production rate was related as a continuous function with time and his equations were developed on that basis. In this paper, production is considered to be a series of segments for
equal time intervals and equations have been developed
based upon these finite differences.
It is realized that decline curve analysis is not the
answer to all predictions of reservoir behavior. However, as production must decline from an initial maximum rate to zero in any reservoir, if such decline can
be expressed as an infinite series, this series should accurately predict production. Decline curve analysis
should be considered a valuable tool that may be used
in conjunction with predictions of future recoveries by
other methods. Various uses of the decline curve method will be discussed in this paper. Equations predicting
Original manuscript received in Petroleum Branch office on Jan.
15, 1955. Revised manuscript received on Dec 13 1955
':'Homer N. Mead is now enrolled in the School 'of Bu"siness Administration at the University of California.
'References given at end of paper.

SPE 464-G

VOL. 207, 1956

production rate at any time and cumulative production

by exponential and hyperbolic decline will be developed. Characteristic values of b related to various types
of drive will be discussed. After that a hypothetical
reservoir will be studied and ultimate recovery by natural depletion and pressure maintenance compared,
then actual field examples will be shown and discussed.
The rate-cumulative curve introduced by H. N.
Marsh' in 1928 is an important one for use in estimating future production rate and ultimate recovery.
This graphical method is the one that is used in conjunction with the equations to be developed for predicting production behavior.
EXPONENTIAL

DECLINE

In exponential decline each succeeding production

rate per unit of time is a constant percentage of the
production rate just before it. Since (1 - r) is the common ratio, where r is the constant decline rate, this condition may be expressed as a geometrical progression;
thus
Pn

P, (1 - r)

,,-1

(1)

Where r is less than unity,

C

P, - P, (1 r

Since P, (1 - r)n
C

r) U

---~---

Pn + 1

P, - P n +1

(2)

LOSS-RATIO
In this paper the calculation for loss-ratio has been
changed from the method presented by Johnson and
Bollens'. The first loss-ratio to be calculated is a, it is
the initial production per unit of time after declin'e has
set in divided by the difference between the initial and
the second production rate. This loss-ratio is for the
first time interval. After b (which is the constant change
11

in loss-ratio per unit of time) has been established, an

will be determined by subtracting b from a , ; a o is the
reciprocal of the instantaneous rate of decline at time
zero. Table 1 should make the above explanation clear.
It is the opinion of the author that decline curves
for most reservoirs producing under a given set of conditions will have a constant b. This factor will vary
between one and zero and will be constant for thai
reservoir when it is operating under a fixed set of conditions at maximum rates of production.
DISCUSSION OF h FACTOR
At this point it is well to discuss the factor b. Since
in exponential decline the reciprocal of r is constant,
it follows that b equals zero. On a rate-cumulative
plot the exponential decline curve is a straight line. For
hyperbolic decline, which assumes b to be constant,
b has limits, 0 ::;; b < 1, and on a rate-cumulative plot
the curve is concave upward (see Fig. 1). On this graph
it was assumed that the maximum initial rate was 1,000
units per unit time for all values of b. The actual initial
rate was taken to be 650 units per unit time. This initial
rate of 650 units will be maintained for each value of h
until the dotted line at 650 units intersects the ratecumulative plot for that particular value of b. For example, when b is equal to 0.75, approximately 1,825
units can be produced before the production begins to
decline. As b approaches zero, for the same initial
maximum production rate and same ultimate recovery,
a greater and greater amount of oil can be produced
before a decline sets in. When b is equal to zero, approximately 4,150 units can be produced at 650 units
per unit time. For the same ultimate recovery and same
initial rate, the least time for recovery will be when b
equals zero. The closer b is to 1, the greater the time
needed to produce the same ultimate recovery. This is
shown clearly on Fig. 2. The data used for these curves
are the same as those used for Fig. 1. It was assumed
in Fig. 2 that the ultimate recovery and initial rate per
unit time are the same for b equals 0, 0.25, 0.50, and
0.75. For example, at the end of 40 units of time, about
99 per cent of the ultimate recovery has been produced for h equals zero while only about 57 per cent
of the ultimate recovery has been produced for the
same time when b equals 0.75. It is true that if the
reservoir is produced to 1 unit per unit time, eventually
the same ultimate recovery will be obtained for all
values of b; however, the closer b is to 1 the longer the
time needed to produce all the units.
DISCUSSION OF RATECUMULATIVE PLOTS
A rate-cumulative plot is a series of segments for
equal time intervals including on both axes the produc0

\ K' ~

I'-. i" l'--

o ASSUMED lNlTIl
o RATE OF
o 65!/..!!.N~~Er\ 1---

1"'-

.:::,. -f"-..,

f"..

0
0

'"

r-.....

r----

"

B~

.-

4000

l"'-

EFFECT OF

t- ;::::: ~b.

1"-16000

7000

ON PRODUCTION RATE FOR SAME

RECOVERY.

.-

.-IJP
1/

IV

,
/,

YI
1M

VI,

rl

V
V

1---:"-

-f-- f--

v
I

I}

If/

-1-1--

f-- I-r-

-I- I--i0 01

--

i.- f--

,> P

I--

I
,

50

UNITS OF TIME

FIG. 2 -

EFFECT OF

ON TIME-RATE OF RECOVERY

FOR SAME INITIAL RATE OF PRODUCTION AND SAME

ULTIMATE RECOVERY.

tion for that period of time. Fig. 3 shows this graphically. There are three methods for making a rate-cumulative plot. In the first method the production per unit
of time is related to the cumulative production at the
end of the period, as is shown in Fig. 3 in the upper
dotted curve marked (1). The advantage of using this
plot is that it is easier to take data directly from actual
production history. Because of the ease of plotting, this
method is the one used on the accompanying rate-cumulative graphs, in which actual production data have been
plotted. Another method for plotting a rate-cumulative
curve is to relate the production per unit of time to the
cumulative production existing at the beginning of the
period. This is shown in the dotted line on Fig. 3
marked (2). Third, if it is desired to plot a curve showing the best approximation of instantaneous rate versus
cumulative production at any time, it will be necessary
to connect the midpoints of the segments. This is shown
in the dotted line on Fig. 3 marked (3). Since the
equations developed in this paper are based upon finite
differences in production rather than making rate a continuous function with time, the third method described
will not be considered. The lines obtained by all three
methods converge at ultimate recovery. It is emphasized that production for equal units of time must be
used in decline curve analysis.
HYPERBOLIC DECLINE
EQUATIONS
In hyperbolic decline the reciprocal of the rate of
decline for each succeeding quantity of production per
unit time increases by a constant factor called h. As
is shown in Table 1, a o cannot be calculated from actual production history but is equal to a 1 - b. The following definitions are used to develop an equation for
cumulative production using a summation of production quantities for equal time intervals.

P,

p,

P,

P,

+ ... +

Pn

(3 )

(4)

INITIAL RATE OF PRODUCTION AND SAME ULTIMATE

12

:..-f--

I"'-

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION

FIG. 1 -

3/

'r--.. l"'- I't- t- r---. t--..

I--

I---

C = P,

'" I.........
',,-

I'- ."

6075

B~O

~--~~~-----~~------------

TABLE 1
Time
Interval

0
1
2
3
4
5

Production
Per Unit
Time
- ---

10,000
6,000
4,000
2,857
2,142

(1

r)

0.6000
0.6667
0.7143
0.7500

Rote of
Decline
(r)

--

0.4000
0.3333
0.2857
0.2500

Reciprocal
of r
(0)

-2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0

0.5
0.5
0.5

PETROLEUM TRAXSACTIOXS, AIME

I I I I I

I I

I I I

"1 7

":

I I

I I I

, "~',',,":: ,y--+t--t1+'1trf
""'1Io'..
,1.14;J::+'I_+-IH-+-HIH-+-+-++-H-+--l
'l!;kl
I
,", '" I rf,' ,
I

I ,,, ''", ',>

,I
I '0'
I

40

3-

':'

(13 )

If k and n are two different numbers of equal time

intervals, then:

. (14)

i
:;0

60

CUMULATIVE

FIG,

'

P,

---~--F\ - Pn+l

PRODUCTION

PLOTTING PRODUCTION PER UNIT TIME WITH

SUMMARY OF CHARACTERISTIC b VALUES

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION.

b
(5)
Substituting Eq. 4 and 5 into Eq. 3, we obtain,
C = (a 1 PI - a 1 P,) + (a, P, - a, P,,) + (a" p, - a3 Pol)
a" + 1 = a"

+ . . . + (a" P" - a" P" +

+ b) PI - a, P, + (a , + b) P, - a,
+ b) P" - a" P, + . . . + (a" - + b)
1)

= (a o
(a,

P, +

+ bPI) + (- a P, + a, P,) + bP,

+ (- a,p, + a,P + bP" + ...
+ (- a" -, P" + a" - P,,) + b P" - a" P"
=aOP + b (PI +P, + P + ... + P,,) '
= a P , + b C - a" P" +,
(a O PI

3)

+ 1

a"P,,+,

Therefore,

(6)

1 - b

Eq. 6 is considered the basic equation for decline

curve anaylsis as developed by the author.
HYPERBOLIC DECINE EQUATIONS
DERIVED FROM EQ. 6
It will be noted that when h equals 0, a o = a" = 1/1',
Eq. 6 becomes:
C = [>1_-.-!"~

(2)

when P"+l =

0,

C = Q so,

t-p~

Letting PI -C P"+l

(7)

x and 1
C

=y

b= ~alx .
(8)
y-x
If it is assumed that when ultimate recovery is
obtained, P n+1 equals zero and if Q equals the recovery left from and including P" and P1 and P, are the
production for two equal, successive time intervals when
the reservoir is producing at maximum rates, then:
P1

(Q ~ p)p,
P1

An approach which uses a decline curve method is

based upon the assumption that the reservoir must be
produced at maximum rates. However, a little consideration given to this problem will indicate to the reader
that in the case of 100 per cent effective water drive, if
the wells are flowed at MER and the size of choke in
each well remains unchanged for the period of production life in which decline has been established, the ratecumulative plot will still follow the curve h equals zero.
It is the opinion of the author that even in solution gas
drive reservoirs, if the choke size of the wells remain
unchanged, the decline that is established will have the
same b factor as that calculated for solution gas drive
using maximum rates. Careful consideration, however,
must be given to the fact that choke size in wells might
have been changed during the time the decline has been
established. If they have, the b factor that is calculatd
will not be the same as that calculated for maximum
rates. This is also assuming that no methods have been
used during the time decline has been established to
improve existing well bore permeabilities. Such improvements that have been made must be taken into consideration.
With the above in mind, the author presents a list of
ranges for b under various types of drive. These values
should not be considered as absolute; however, it is believed that b will be constant when the reservoir is produced under fixed conditions. Even in solution-gas drive
reservoirs there will be some gravity drainage and perhaps a limited water drive, so actual conditions make
it impossible to determine one specific b factor for all
reservoirs of a given type. The table below shows the
general ranges for b that exist under various types of
drive.

(9)

P,

Df?LETION

a"

b -

(-Q-----)
O-C

5000 8/0 R~E

\
\
J.

,I

'\

'"1'\

\
\

P",
+

;~~1~-=~rp"+1

VOL. 207, 1956

PRESSURE MAlrn:::NANCE

\ /1

--

r-=

_P' -

I
NATURAL

Q ) (
P,
)
(10)
( Q-P
~p,
1
b
PI (P, +
b P,)
Q - ---- -------(11 )
P 1 - P,
When a series of equal time intervals are taken with
P, the initial rate and P" the last rate with C as the
cumulative production from P , to P" inclusive, then:

\
\

I""
5

(12)

""

"-

CUMULAT:VE PRODUCTION IN MILLIONS OF BARRELS

FIG.

4-

HYPOTHETICAL

EXAMPLE

COMPARISON

OF

PRESSURE MAINTENANCE TO NATURAL DEPLETION.

13

RANGES FOR b

Solution Gas Drive

Gas Cap Drive
Gravity Drainage

Pressure Maintenance by Gas

Pressure Maintenance by Water

0.50 to 0.85
0.20 to 0.85
o to 0.40
0.20 to 0.50
o to 0.20

HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE
In order to demonstrate the use of decline curve analysis for predicting reservoir behavior on a reservoir that
has not been produced long enough to establish a decline rate, the following example is presented. In this
hypothetical case it is assumed that a reservoir had been
produced which by volumetric and materials balance
calculations had 50 mililon bbl of stock-tank oil originally in place. It was established that there was no water
drive and no original gas cap. All of the wells producing from this reservoir were examined and it was estimated a maximum of 400,000 bbl per month could be
produced initially. It was determined that 20 per cent of
the total oil in place could be produced ultimately by
natural depletion and 40 per cent of the original oil in
place could ultimately be produced if the reservoir pressure were maintained by gas injection. The problems
are: (1) what are the time-rates of recovery by natural
depletion and pressure maintenance and how do they
compare, (2) how long will it be possible to produce at
a sustained rate of 5,000 BID before decline sets in.
It was assumed that b equals 0.5 for natural depletion
since this reservoir would be produced in an efficient
manner. A similar value of b equals 0.5 was used for
pressure maintenance so that the comparison with natural depletion would be on a conservative basis.
Ultimate recovery in this paper is defined as the total
amount of oil recovered when the reservoir rate has
decreased to zero. Obviously cost factors of production
would make this impossible to achieve. The economic
ultimate recovery of any reservoir after capital equipment has been installed is when the direct or variable
cost of producing one barrel of oil is equal to the price
received by selling that barrel. This minimum production rate will consequently vary for each reservoir depending upon the factors of cost. It is possible for two
identical reservoirs produced at different times, places
and depths to have different economic ultimate recoveries yet both have the same total ultimate recovery if
costs were not taken into account. It is for this reason
that ultimate recovery has been defined as total producible oil. It is the obligation of the engineer to decide
from cost data to what minimum rate the reservoir can
be produced.
Under natural depletion (see Tables 2 and 3) in 15
years the yearly production rate will have dropped to
74,000 bbl and 8,832,000 bbl of oil will have been produced. Under pressure maintenance (see Tables 4 and
5) in 15 years the production rate will have dropped to
230,000 bbl per year and 15,508,000 bbl will have been
produced.
The calculations for Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5 were made
as follows: It was assumed that the production rate
would be zero when 10 million and 20 million bbl were
produced by natural depletion and pressure maintenance
respectively. Since P n +, will be zero,
P, ao
C = --- + 0
1 - b
Because it was assumed that b equals 0.5 III both
cases,
0.5 C
P,
14

It might be pointed out that b is a constant factor

regardless of the length of time given each time interval
as long as each time interval is equal. Therefore, if P,
is barrels produced per year, ao is on a yearly basis. By
the same token if P, is barrels per month, ao is on a
monthly basis. Table 2 and 4 are the calculations of
production for the first year by natural depletion and
pressure maintenance respectively. The first year's production was then used to start out the calculations in
Tables 3 and 5.
The comparison of natural depletion to pressure maintenance is shown on the rate-cumulative plot in Fig. 4.
If under proration the reservoir were produced at an
average rate of 5,000 BID, 4.8 million bbl of oil would
be produced from the reservoir under natural depletion
before a decline would set in. The reservoir would be
capable of producing at a sustained rate of 5,000 BID
for 2.6 years. If the pressure maintenance project were
installed, and the reservoir were still produced on an
initial rate of 5,000 BID, it would be possible to produce at this rate for 4.7 years, taking out 8.6 million
bbl before the production rate would decline.

FIELD EXAMPLE -

RESERVOIR A

Reservoir A ultimately had 10 wells drilled in it. The

initial productivity of these wells was such that each was
capable initially of producing about 1,000 BID. The
wells have been flowed at maximum rates. On Fig. 5
(which is a rate-cumulative plot of oil production prior
to gas injection) a curve was drawn from the estimated
initial maximum production of 300,000 bbl per month
to the last point on the curve. P, is taken to be the production point of 195.1M bbl per month. P, was determined by following the rate-cumulative curve to that
point where P, added to the cumulative production at
point P, is equal to the cumulative production shown on
TABLE 2 - NATURAL DEPLETION
CALCULATING FIRST YEARS MAXIMUM PRODUCTION
Ultimate Recovery X (1 -

all :...::

10,000,000 X (1 -

b)

----400~_'

Initial Monthly Rate

.5)
. = 12.5

Monthly
Rate

Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

.1M bbl,)

.,

12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5

400
369
342
318
296
276
258
242
227
214
202
191

.0769
.0741
.0714
.0690
.0667
.0645
.0625
.0606
.0588
.0571
.0556
.0541

.9231
.9259
.9286
.9310
.9333
.9355
.9375
.9394
.9412
.9429
.9444
.9459

3,335

TABLE 3 - NATURAL DEPLETION

CALCULATING YEARLY PRODUCTION (MAXIMUM)
00

Years

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Ultimate Recovery X (1 -

b)

---------~--'

Initial Yearly Rote

Yearly Prod.
Cum. Prod.

~1i.~L
3,335
1,668
1,001
667
476
357
278
222
182
152
129
111
96
84
74

~bbl'}

3,335
5,003
6,004
6,671
7,147
7,504
7,782
8,004
8,186
8,338
8,467
8,578
8,674
8,758
8,832

10,000,000 X (1 - .5)
--3-,335,000-' = 1.5
a

1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0

-r-

.5000
.4000
.3333
.2857
.2500
.2222
.2000
.1818
.1667
.1538
.1429
.1333
.1250
.1176
.1111

.5000
.6000
.6667
.7143
.7500
.7778
.8000
.8182
.8333
.8462
.8571
.8667
.8750
.8824
.8889

PETROLEUM TRANSACTIOl\'S, AIME

TAF.LE 4 - BY PRESSURE MAl NTENANCE

CALCULATING FIRST YEAR'S PRODUCTION (MAXIMUM)

TABLE 6 - NATURAL DEPLETION, RESERVOIR A (DETERMINATION

OF CONSTANTS)
Determining 01 from Graph IV
Assume Dec., 1948 is PI then P1 = 195,100 bbls and the cumulative production to end of PI is 698,700 bbls.
The next point pz on the curve is that point P2, (698,700 + P:::).
170,000 BIM is 840,000 bbls cumulative
160,000 BIM is 900,000 bbls cumulative

= ~.OOO,OOO X_,5 = 250

400,000
.

00

Month

Monthly Role
_ (M bblsL.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

400
384
369
355
342
330
318
307
296
286
276
267

a
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0

1 -

.0392
.0385
.0377
.0370
.0364
.0357
.0351
.0344
.0339
.0333
.0328
.0323

.9608
.9615
.9623
.9630
.9636
.9643
.9649
.9656
.9661
.9667
.9672
.9677

or

(160,000 + X) = 900,000 - 6x
7x = 900,000 - 858,700 = 41,300
x = 5,900
p, = (160,000 + 5,900) or 165.9 M bbl
195.1
01 = ~165.9 = 6.68

698,700

The Interval C to 0 was used to determine b

P, = 195.1 M bbl/month

3,930

n
~---~~-~------------

-------01

TABLE 5 - BY PRESSURE MAINTENANCE

CALCULATING YEARLY PRODUCTION (MAXIMUM)
20,000,000 X .5
00 = --3;930,000- = 2.54 assume 2.50

Yearly Prod.
(M bbls)

Cum. Prod.
(M bbls)

3,930
2,620
1,871
1,403
1,091
873
714
595
503
431
374
327
289
257
230

1 2.50
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0

3,930
6,550
8,421
9,824
10,915
11,788
12,502
13,097
13,600
14,031
14,405
14,732
15,021
15,278
15,508

.3333
.2857
.2500
.2222
.2000
.1818
.1667
.1538
.1429
.1333
.1250
.1176
.1111
.1053
.1000

RESERVOIR B

In this reservoir the maximum rate attained was

264.2 M bbl per month after 965.7 M bbl had been produced. A reservoir study was made and it was estimated
that the ultimate recovery would be 11 million bbl of
oil. By taking the two productions per month with 264.2
M bbl as P, and 239.4 M bbl per month as P, and sub-

I,

I-- ~ST

(6)

- IT~ST
\

Lx

losslLE
INITIAL RATE

1\

P,

1'\.0

I~P2

1-". . 1"-.

!
,
1 f'..

I
I

i
I

f-'I
I

i I

A.

FIGURE

1\
1::-'

OCi

l94

~
j-1.-'O"

Gl'3 INJECTION
STARTED NOV 194

J/

I"

00 0

r-...:: "'0
0

RATE CUMULATIVE PLOT USED

FOR DETERMINING

~RODUCTION
I 1

CIRCLES ARE

CUMUL.GTIVE PRODUCTION IN MILLIONS OF BARRELS

I i i
I I I i

05

RESERVOIR

~~~~~;ISCU~\
I

i~

, I
, I

I I

P,

I
I

.4631

A math~matical approach by infinite series has been

developed ~ith the basic assumption that rate of change
of the reciprocal of decline for succeeding equal time
periods is constant if the reservoir is produced under
a fixed set of conditions. If this assumption is valid, the
derived equation relating the four factors (ultimate recovery to zero production rate, initial production rate
per unit time, band ao ) is true.
If the ultimate recovery and maximum initial production rate are known and b is estimated for the different
types of recovery mechanism, au can be calculated for
each. It will then be possible to compare what the reservoir would do under each recovery mechanism with respect to rate of production, time and cumulative production.
The basic developed equation is:

I
i

n Pn+1

1,225.2 M bbl

(300,000 B/M)

r,

VOL. 207, 1956

.1104

CONCLUSION

I
1 I

1',

FIG. 5 -

Pn+l

= 6.68

i',

------

tracting 965.7 M bbl from 11 million bbl for the ultimate recovery that was left to be produced including P"
Eq. 6 was used and b calculated to be 0,74, ao was calculated from Eq. 7 and equals 9.92. With these data the
decline curve was plotted as shown in Fig. 7. It will be
observed that this curve follows quite closely the actual
production data .

MAX POSSIBLE
INITIAL RATE
(300,000 81M)

Pl

.6667
.7143
.7500
.7778
.8000
.8182
.8333
.8462
.8571
.8667
. 8750
.8824
.8889
.8947
.9000

the curve for P,. a, was calculated using P, and P,. On

Fig. 6 the points from C to D were used to calculate b.
These data are shown in Table 6. Using this information
the entire curve was plotted as shown in Fig. 6.
It is of interest to note that the amount of oil to be
attributed to gas injection has been calculated by the
decline curve to be 191,000 bbl. This figure is in line
with an estimate made by a previous reservoir engineering study.
FIELD EXAMPLE -

_
y ~ 1 -

= 11

C =

--"'------

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

x=

Pn+l = 59.8 M bbl/monlh

---~-----.

Yeors

GAS INJECTION
c

~~(4Nr3

f-- f--

~
3

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION IN MILLIONS OF BARRELS

FIG. 6 -

RESERVOIR

A RATE CUMULATIVE PLOT,

1-1-t-,\\+-i0ECLlNE CURVE

ANIILYS'S'+--t-H--+-+-++-t-H-t--t---t-t-1

~
~

'"

~200~-+-+\~+--t-~-+-+-++-t-H-t--t---t-t-H-t-t-~

I~ ,ool-++-+-+-+---+-,K~o;t---i-+-+++-l-+-+++--+-t-+-++-t--i

Number of equal time intervals from the beginning of initial production to the end of
that time for Pn'
C = Cumulative production in barrels from the
beginning of initial production to the end
of the P n interval.
ro = Instantaneous decline rate at time o.
r, = Decline rate for time interval 1.
rn = Decline rate for time interval n.
a,,, a" an = Reciprocal of rate of decline or loss-ratio.
b = Constant difference between successive lossratio.
PI -

---c --

_ 1

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION IN MILLIONS OF BARRELS

RESERVOIR B RATE CUMULATIVE CURVE

ACTUAL PRODUCTION COMPARES TO

FIG. 7 SHOWING

How

DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS.

PROJECT.

When b equals zero, Eq. 6 becomes the same as Eq.

2. When b equals 1, it is impossible to solve for C by
Eq. 6; therefore, according to Eq. 6, b has limits, 0 :s;
b < 1.
In the case of a reservoir that has been produced until
a definite decline in rate has been established and continues to be produced at maximum rates after decline
has set in, the production data during decline may be
used to calculate ultimate recovery, band a o Since b is
considered to be constant, a rate-cumulative plot for
future production can be drawn. If the reservoir continues to be produced at maximum rates, production rate
versus time and cumulative production versus time
curves can be drawn.
SYMBOLS

Initial production in barrels during first time

period t.
Pn = Production in barrels during anyone of a
constant series of time intervals which are
equal in length to the original time period t.
PI

16

y-

Pn+l

n' P O + 1

--C-

Ultimate recovery in barrels left to be produced at the beginning of time interval in

which P, bbl were produced.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The writer wishes to thank the Venezuelan Atlantic

Refining Co. for permission to publish this paper. Special expression of appreciation is given to A. Chatas,
reservoir engineer for Socony Vacuum in Caracas, for
a careful examination of this paper together with several
valuable suggestions; and to T. Hutchinson, research
engineer for the Atlantic Refining Co. in Dallas, for the
development of the derivation of the basic formula by
series.
REFERENCES
1. Arps, J. J.: "Analysis of Decline Curves," Trans.
AIME (1945) 160, 228.
2. Johnson, R. H. and Bollens, A. L.: "The Loss-Ratio
Method of Extrapolating Oil Well Decline Curves,"
Trans. AIME (1927) 77,771.
3. Marsh, H. N.: "Method of Appraising Results of
Production Control of Oil Wells," API and Prod.
Eng. Bull. 202 (1928).

***

PETROLEUM TRA!'I"SACTIONS, AIME