Surpassing

the majority
of expectations

Anyone who tells you

theysaw this British election
result coming is lying through
their teeth.

Surpassing the majority

of expectations
Andrew MacDougall
Senior Executive Consultant

An unexpected parliamentary majority brings both relief

and a headache to Prime Minister David Cameron.
Anyone who tells you they saw the British election result
coming is lying through their teeth. So unexpected was
David Camerons majority triumph that precisely none of
the hundreds of pre-writ polls presaged it. And so when
the broadcasters exit polls came in last night showing
the Conservatives on 316 seats, a mere ten away from
majority territory, the British political class collectively
spit out their tea.
The morning brought word that the Conservatives had
done even better and, as of this writing, it appears David
Cameron has won his long-sought majority mandate.
But it is almost the thinnest majority possible, and many
tricky policy files await.
At the top of the tricky list is Scotland. The other main
story of election night was the Scottish Nationalist
Partys complete domination north of the border,
winning 56 of a possible 59 seats, with the
Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats each
winning a sole seat. In his speech to his constituency
supporters Cameron outlined a one Nation approach,
indicating that he at least understands the severity of the
unity challenges facing the United Kingdom. Expect to
see a more devolved United Kingdom as Cameron sends
more tax and spend powers to the regions and
municipalities in a bid to quell regional unrest.

03

Surpassing the majority

of expectations
The election result now means Cameron controls his
fate on another contentious issue: whether the United
Kingdom should continue in the European Union.
Cameron campaigned on a pledge to give Britons an
in or out vote and a vote they will have, with
Cameron first pledging to renegotiate the British
relationship with its European counterparts. Markets
have responded favourably to the majority result,
indicating they are not spooked yet by the prospect
of an EU vote. Recent opinion surveys (more on them
later) show that the British public still backs the EU by
a margin of 20%.
The utter destruction of the junior coalition partner
The Liberal Democrats have learned a very hard
political lesson: the junior partner always gets crushed
in a coalition government. And so it was with the
Liberal Democrats. While Nick Cleggs decision to join
forces with David Cameron was undoubtedly a
responsible one in the face of considerable economic
uncertainty in 2010, it is unquestionably also
responsible for his partys reduction to a rump of 8
MPs (down from 57). The coalition made a number of
tough policy choices including on tuition fees and
David Cameron has reaped all of the reward for those
decisions, while Nick Clegg has taken all of the
electoral blame. Joining Clegg in the search for work
are fellow Lib Dem Ministers Danny Alexander
(Treasury Secretary), Vince Cable (Business), Steve
Webb (Pensions), and Ed Davey (Energy).

04

Surpassing the majority

of expectations
A bloodbath for the opposition leaders
While Mr. Cameron tends to his enlarged flock of MPs,
the three main opposition leaders are all facing a
career change. Although Labour leader Ed Miliband
and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg retained their
seats, both have indicated they will be stepping down
as leaders of their parties. Given that Miliband failed to
outperform Gordon Brown in 2010 and Clegg saw his
party burned to the ground, neither retirement can be
called a surprise.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage also failed in his bid to win a
seat losing to the Conservatives in South Thanet and indicated that he would be stepping down. While
UKIP came a long way under Farages leadership,
winning the European elections and two Westminster
by-elections in 2014, the first-past-the-post electoral
system limited his party to one lonely seat on 12.6% of
the vote. By contrast, the SNPs 56 seats came on 4.8%
of the vote, and the Liberal Democrats 8 seats came on
7.7%.

05

Surpassing the majority

of expectations
The pollsters get it wrong and the need for electoral
reform
If there is one certainty from yesterdays result its that
the pollsters got it spectacularly wrong. All of the major
surveys saw Labour and Conservatives level going
into polling day on approximately 33-34% of the vote.
The Conservatives will instead finish in the vicinity of
37%, while Labour will finish closer to 31%. Was this
the shy-Tory phenomenon in action, or have pollsters
not found a way to reliably sample the British
electorate? Psephologists wont be following Clegg,
Miliband, or Farage to the firing squad, but the utter
disconnect with reality should prompt a harder look at
the numbers.
Speaking of numbers, will this be the election result
that finally leads to electoral reform? It ought to, if you
consider the numbers: Greens: 1.2m votes = 1 seat.
UKIP 3.8m votes = 1 seat. LibDem 2.3m votes = 8
seats. SNP 1.4m votes = 56 seats.

06

Surpassing the majority

of expectations
What will David Cameron do with his majority?
Its hard to see a Conservative majority government
tackling voting reform. After all, their minority of
support in first-past-the-post delivered a majority of
seats. Instead, look for the Conservatives to revive
electoral boundary reform, so their vote becomes more
efficient in England leading to more seats in 2020.
What else will David Cameron do with his newfound
majority? Given that even he didnt dare to dream this
result, he will undoubtedly go back to the drawing
board and produce a Queens Speech unencumbered
by coalition. Well report back on his agenda early next
week.
Stay tuned.
To learn more about the British election, please contact
Andrew at andrew.macdougall@mslgroup.com or
tweet him at @AGMacDougall

07

About
MSLGROUP
We are MSLGROUP in the UK.
Were a communications agency with digital, insight and creativity
at its heart. We help some of the worlds leading employers to build
and protect their reputations and relationships inside and outside
their organisations. Our clients include Associated British Foods,
BG Group, BMW, BP, EY, Canon and GSK.
We help organisations around the world to deliver their business
and people strategies by understanding, attracting, recruiting,
engaging and retaining top talent. Our works spans the entire
Employee Lifecycle from EVP development to attraction and
engagement. Our teams combine expertise in consultancy,
insight and strategy development to activation including
creative, writing, digital and technical development.
As part of the global MSLGROUP network we have more than
3,500 colleagues worldwide. MSLGROUP is Publicis Groupes
strategic communications and engagement business, advising
clients on all aspects of their multi-stakeholder communications.
Find out more at mslgroup.co.uk or by contacting Victoria Sugg
victoria.sugg@mslgroup.com

08

Be interested.
Be interesting.
Be influential.

Victoria Sugg
Business Development Director

victoria.sugg@mslgroup.com
+44 (0)7950 821 272
mslgroup.co.uk