Analysis of The Risky Attitude of Driver Candidates by Graphical Models

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263
Volume 5 Number 2 Year 2010; P:14-23

http://www.iaau.edu.kg/aas/AAS5-2.pdf
Analysis of the risky attitude of driver candidates by graphical models
VEYSEL YILMAZ
a,*
, H.ERAY ELK
CENGZ AKTA
a Eskiehir Osmangazi University, Faculty of Arts and Science, Department of Statistics, 26480
Eskiehir, Turkey
* Corresponding author. Tel.: + 90 222 2393750; fax: +90 222 2393578.
E-mail address: vyilmaz@ogu.edu.tr ; veyselesogu@gmail.com; zyildiz@ogu.edu.tr;
ecelik@ogu.edu.tr
Abstract
There are some good scientific studies conducted over risk-taking and risky behaviors of
reckless drivers; however, there are only a few studies related to attitudes displayed by
candidate drivers towards the traffic. The risky attitude of drivers is usually established by
determining their intentions about speed, safety belt use, and drunk driving. In this study, the
attitudes of the driver candidates towards drunk drivers and the use of safety belt in downtown
traffic were investigated from the perspective of gender, age, and educational level by using
graphical models. Graphical models provide a flexible tool for representing complex relations
among variables. These relations are marginal or conditional independencies and directed or
symmetric association. Each variable in a chain graph is represented by a node and some pairs
of nodes are connected by edges which indicate dependencies of subject-matter interest
whenever it represents a substantive research hypothesis. According to the results of statistical
analysis, while female driver candidates have a risky attitude regarding safety belt use and male
driver candidates have a risky attitude regarding drunk driving.
Keywords: Risky driving, Driver candidates, Graphical models

INTRODUCTION
In the years of 2005, 2006 and
2007; 570025, 664540 and 749456 traffic accidents occurred
respectively in Turkey and following numbers were recorded as casualty traffic accidents out of
these accidents 3195, 3365, and 3459 respectively. In Turkey, 5400 people were killed and
188,383 were injured in road traffic accidents in 2007. In Turkey, 502746, 680384 and 419137
individuals obtained drivers licenses in 2003, 2004, and the first six months of 2005,
respectively. According to the first six month data from 2005, 16561564 people have drivers
licenses. Considering that on average, 500,000 trainees a year work towards earning a drivers
license, it is a necessity to equip these candidate drivers with accurate cultural attitudes and
knowledge regarding traffic. Total highway network of Turkey is 63899 km. Density of Total
Network in meters per sq . Km is 82 meters. The number of vehicles being used is 12227393.
When we considered the population of Turkey, we may say that Number of Cars per 1000
Persons is 84 and Number of Cars per 100 Family is 34. On average, around 9000 accidents
occur in Turkey every year due to drunk-driving. Accidents associated with drunk drivers make
up 15% of all accidents. The death rate is the highest for drunk drivers at the ages ranging from
18 to 24 in all accidents happening in Turkey. This shows a parallelism to the traffic accidents
caused by speeding. Traffic problem of Turkey annually on average results in loss of 8-9 billion
dollars for country economy. When we compare Turkey with other countries in terms of traffic
accidents, we see that the result requires taking more urgent measures. While the death rate in
accidents per 100 million vehicle-kilometers is 0.9, 1.1, and 1.6 respectively, such rate is 20 in
Turkey (Traffic Education & Research Center, Report 2005-2007).
The population in Turkey increases gradually, but there is a considerable amount of migration
from the countryside to the towns because of health, education, and economics related issues.
This influx results in traffic problems that grow day by day. An established traffic culture does
not exist in the Turkish society and traffic education is not provided with an emphasis to close
the educational gap caused by the high rates of migration. However, there is a common belief
that such an education should be school-focused, rather than being a lifetime process. The
whole community should be aware of the need for traffic education, and the necessary

measures should be taken to determine drivers attitudes before they hit the roads, and to
remove the generally accepted negative tendencies and attitudes.
Studies mentioned above are conducted on active drivers. Traffic education and teaching a
traffic culture for candidates before they go out to traffic must be evaluated within a complete
framework. The attitudes and the behaviors of drivers do not come into existence as soon as
they go into the traffic. The subject carries his/her positive or negative attitude, obtained through
socializing, to traffic modified by the traffic education they receive. The knowledge of the
attitudes of drivers about these issues before becoming an active driver can provide an
opportunity to build an education system. In this study, the attitudes of driver candidates
towards the drunk driving and the use of safety belt in downtown traffic were investigated from
the perspective of gender, age, and educational level by using graphical models.
Attitude is an important factor determining the behavior of an individual .According to Allport

(1967) attitude is formed as a result of experiences in life and is an emotional and intelligent
readiness that has got a dynamic or diverting power to affect the behavior of the individual
towards all objects and situations. Attitude has an active role in the formation and development
of an action. Also, during their developments, acts may have roles that change the attitudes,
which form themselves. It has been thought that attitudes form a system that facilitates the
harmony of the subjects to their environment and have a secret directing power. One of the
most important terms about driver behavior is the term attitude. Driving styles reflect the
personal characteristics, attitudes, and motives of the driver (Elander et al., 1993). Before
getting started with changing the behavior of drivers, their attitudes must be investigated as a
first step (Forward, 1994). Some investigators in the traffic psychology field consider attitudes
involve personal characteristics that arise from a wide spectrum of motivators, including
aggression and risk taking; others investigate specific driver attitudes such as drunk driving or
speedy driving. On the other hand, some researchers suggest that attitudes should be
considered in the wider context of social environment or lifestyle (Aberg, 1996).

Most recent studies investigating how and when attitudes affect behaviors have been influenced
by Ajzens Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) (1988, 1991). This socio psychological theory
offers a model of the relationship among believes attitudes, intentions, and behaviors (Parker et
al., 1998). Topics such as violation of traffic rules, drunken driving, attitude measurement, and
perceived risk have been investigated in the framework of Ajzens TBP. The human factor in
traffic was investigated in several scientific studies and drivers attitudes about traffic were
clearly shown. The accident tendency, personality predisposed to accidents, risk taking
tendency, and the driver behavior and attitude were investigated in detail (Parker et al., 1992,
1995a, 1995b, 1998; Summala, 1996; Yagil, 1998; Iversen and Rundmo, 2002; Ulleberg and
Rundmo, 2003; Elliott et al., 2003; Iversen, 2004; 2008). These studies had similar findings in
which the human factor has the highest percentage in accident formation and is found to be the
most difficult factor to be changed among the three factors (vehicles, human, and environment)
of the traffic system. Assum (1997) hypothesized that there are no direct relationships between
institutional attitudes and accidents and found out that drivers with correct attitudes about traffic
rules have lower accident risks when compared to those of drivers with bad attitudes. Based on
other studies, it is expected that young male drivers are more likely to violate traffic rules and
show more risky driving behaviors.
The tendency of drivers to have a risky attitude is usually determined by finding out their
attitudes towards fast driving, failure to use a safety belt, and drunk driving. Shinar (1993)
searched for relations between safety belt use and demographic, socio-economic factors. A
positive relationship was found between race, marital status, child number, education, income,
and safety belt usage. Stewart (1993) also investigated safety belt usage within the
determinants of accident and compared the driver behaviors before and after safety belt usage
act was released. Li, Kim and Nitz (1999) determined the same relation between safety belt use
among drivers and passengers. Moreover, in this study, strong relations were found between
alcohol and safety belt usage. Shin et al. (1999) investigated the relationships between safety
belt use and the socio-economic status and the ethnicity among high school students and
concluded that younger respondents view the usage of safety belts, in downtown traffic,

useless. Schechtman et al. (1999) studied the relation between alcohol drinking habit, speed
passion, and safety belt usage and found that alcohol passion is an indicator of risk taking in
traffic. They further discussed the relation between this habit and safety belt usage. Everett et
al. (2001), researched the security and risk behaviors of high school students in the USA
between 1991 and 1997. The results of this study revealed that 17% of the drivers drive after
alcohol intake and 33% do not use a safety belt. Calisir and Letho (2002) argued that safety belt
use was affected basically by personal factors such as age, gender, and race. Kim & Kim
(2003) in their research on safety belt usage, personal factors and severe accident injury,
showed that the ones who did not use safety belts have more severe injuries or deaths in traffic
accidents when compared to those of who use safety belts. They also found relations between
safety belt use and age, gender vehicle type, alcohol use, and speed. Chaudhary et al. (2004)
found that 29% of the American drivers did not use safety belts; people with high income levels
comprehended not using safety belts as a high risk, however, youngsters found it low risk.
In the current study, eleven hypotheses were investigated to find out the relation between
demographic characteristics and the risky attitude of drivers. Hypotheses are defined as follows:
H1. There is a relation between attitude regarding safety belt usage in downtown and gender.
H2. There is a relation between attitude regarding safety belt usage in downtown and age.
H3. There is a relation between attitude regarding safety belt usage in downtown and the
education level.
H4. There is a relation between the attitudes concerning driving under the influence of alcohol in
downtown and safety belt use.
H5. A There is a relation between attitudes on drunken driving and gender.
H6. There is a relation between attitudes on drunken driving and age.
H7. There is a relation between attitudes on drunken and the education level.
H8. Drunk driving and gender are conditional independent if age is given.
H9. Education level and safety belt use are conditional independent if is age given.

H10. Education level and drunk driving are conditional independent if the attitude on safety belt
use in downtown is given.
H11. Education level and safety belt use are conditional independent if the attitude on drunk
driving is given.
METHOD
Sample
The study sample consisted of 350 candidate drivers from a pool of 1530 who attended 17
driver courses, which are implemented under the Ministry of National Education Control, in
October 2004, in Eskisehir Twenty driver candidates selected randomly from each of 17 driving
courses constituted the sample of study. During the application of the measurement tool, 350
questionnaire forms were delivered to candidate drivers. Ninety two candidate drivers did not
fully or correctly answer and the statistical analyses were performed on the answers from the
remaining 258 candidate drivers. Table 1 gives the socio-demographic information about the
participants.
The variables and their levels were as follows:
a. Gender (male, female)
b. Age (18-24 years, 25-31 years, 32 years and older)
c.
Education level (elementary school, high school, university)
d. I do not think that drunk driving is risky (I agree, I disagree).

e. I do not think that safety belt use is necessary in downtown traffic (I agree, I disagree).
Table . The demographical distribution of individuals in the sample
Statistical Procedure
In the study, Graphical Log Linear models, which provide an opportunity for numerical and
graphical interpretation, have been used (For the details and the proof for graphical model see:
Lauritzen, 1996; Pearl, 1993, 1995a, 1995b, 1998, 2000; Edwards and Kreiner, 1983;
Whittaker, 1990; Pigeot et al., 2000). Models that have interpretations in term of conditional

independence are known as graphical models. The terminology stems from the relationship of
these models to graph theory. Edwards and Kreiner (1983) give an overview of the use of
graphical log linear models.
Graphical models are a form of multivariate statistical analysis in which the structure of
dependences between variables can be displayed graphically. Note that graphs based on two
variable effects determine log linear model. Thus pictures of graphical models are worthless
until after graphical models have been defined. A key feature of this subject is the one-to-one
correspondence between graphical log linear models and graphs. Every model determines a
graph and every graph determines a model. The graphical models are represented by an
undirected independence graph. Graphs consist of vertices and edges as connections between
selected pairs of are used to formulate hypotheses about relation between variables. A graph
consists of vertices and edges. Vertices correspond to variables in log linear models. Edges
correspond to two variable effects. Vertices stand for variables connections representing
associations. When a missing connection is interpreted as a conditional independence, a graph
characterizes a conditional independence structure as well (Lauritzen and Wermuth 1989,
Wermuth and Lauritzen, 1990). For instance, according to the rules of notation, the graph of 4
independent vertices, shown in Figure 1, shows the shorthand notation [AB], [BCD] models,
M= U + UA + UB + UC + UD + UAB + UBC + UBD + UCD + UBCD
(1)
where U is the general effect; UA, UB, UC and UD are the main effects ; UAB, UBC, UBD and UCD
are the two variable interactions and UBCD is the three variable interaction. From Figure 1, it can
be inferred. Given variable B, variable A is conditional independent of variables C and D. The
model shows shorthand conditional independence notation
[A (C, D) B]. Graphical
models are determined by their two variable interactions. The basic idea is that any graphical
model containing all of the terms UAB , UAC and UBC
must also include UABC . A model is

graphical if, whenever the model contains all two variable terms generated by a higher order
interaction, the model also contains the higher order interaction.
Figure 1 The independence graph of the log-linear model [AB], [BCD]
The best model may be selected either using a forward or a backward approach like in
regression analysis. In a forward selection approach, one starts with the independence model
and then progressively adds association parameters that significantly increase the fit of the
model. It first starts by testing all possible first order interactions; it then selects the one that
produces the most important and significant increase in fit. If it finds one, it is added to the
model. The other firstorder interactions are again tested, and terms are added if they are
significant. The procedure continues with higher order interactions until no other terms can be
added, yielding a final model that best fits the data. In backward selection, one starts from the
saturated model. It first tries to remove higher order interaction terms; if a term is removed, it
does not yield a significant difference. The procedure is repeated until the removal of a term
yields a significant difference. If the test with eliminating an edge comes to a solution like p,
since we cannot refuse the edge, there wont be any testing in the further iterations. (Yilmaz et
al., 2005).
RESULTS
The Eliminate Backwards method was used to reach a suitable model and to test the
hypotheses. The reason for this is the availability of a saturated model in the initial analysis. For
that reason, a saturated model was used for the first model. The result of the first step is given
below in Table II.
First step:
Table II. The first step results of the analysis done to reach the most proper model
As seen in the table, the edge with the highest p value and lowest chi-square value is ad edge.
For this reason, ad edge is removed from the saturated model. At the end of the first step,
[bcde],[ abce] preliminary model was reached. The graphic of the model is shown below:
Figure 2. The [bcde],[ abce] model graph

The second step: ce:
=14.8799 (df=12;p=0.2481). The ac and ae edges were left in the

2
second step. Since P value of ac edge was found to be higher than the level of significance, this
edge is removed from the preliminary models [bcde], [abce]. Subsequently, second preliminary
model would be [bcde],[ abe]. The graphic related to this model is given below:
Figure 3. The [bcde] ,[abe] model graph

The second step: ac:
2 =18.8850 (df=12;p=0. 0.0913) and ae: 2 =16.3964 (df=8;p=0.0370).
Only the ce edge was left in the third step. Since P value of the ce edge was found to be higher
than the level of significance, this edge is removed from the preliminary models [bcde], [abe].
Subsequently, the last model would be [bde], [bce],[abe]. This model can be expressed by
conditional liberty terms as [ a
d / b, e ] [ c e / b, d ]. The graphic related to this model is
given below:
Figure 4. The [bde], [bcd],[ abe] model graph
Table III. The results of the hypotheses
The hypotheses, the results, and the graphics are shown in Table III. All hypotheses except H3
and H5 were accepted. No significant relation between education level and safety belt use and
drunk driving was found. However, relations between the variables could be determined
conditionally if the levels of the age were known. Besides, if the attitude about safety belt use is
known, the conditional relation between gender and alcohol was determined. Sixty four percent
of the men reported that they can drive while they are drunk. This rate was 54.9% in the
women. Odds ratio was found to be 0.66 between these two variables. This means that there
are 66 male candidates who consider alcohol as a risk with respect to 100 women who do so.
The only independent variable that is related to alcohol and safety belt use was found to be the
age variable. 60.3% of the subjects between18-24 ages regarded drunk driving as risky, on the
other hand 58.8% of the subjects between 25-31 ages regarded drunk driving as risky. 34.8% of
the subjects older than 32 years reported drunken driving as a risk. The odds ratio of attitude to
alcohol between 18-24 and 25-31 ages was found to be 0.97. The odds ratio between 18-24
and 32 + ages and 25-31 and 32 + was found to be 1.23 and 1.34, respectively. From this point

of view, the attitude about alcohol is similar between 18-24 and 25-31 ages, but the 32+ age
group do not see drunk driving as a risk.
A significant relation was found between gender and safety belt use. 65.5% of the men
considered safety belt usage unnecessary in downtown while 77% of women found it
unnecessary. The odds ratio of this statement was 1.76. This statement can be interpreted as
there are 176 women thinking safety belt use unnecessary while there are 100 men thinking it
necessary. The odds ratio for safety belt use attitude was found to be 0.7, 10.7, and 15.2 for the
age groups 18-24 and 25-31, 18-24 and 32 +, 25-31 and 32+, respectively. Especially, the 32+
age group has more attitudes about the unnecessary of safety belt use in downtown when
compared to other groups.
The percentages of the subjects that declare safety belt use
unnecessary were 69% for 18-24 years, 62.7% for 25-31 years, and 60.5% for 32+ years.
DISCUSSION
In the current study, men of 32+ years of age and women who attend a driving course are found
to be risky driver candidates. While women have worse attitudes than men in safety belt use,
men tend to drink and drive more frequently than women. If safety belt use is accepted as a
personal flaw, it can be considered that they endanger only themselves. However, men who
drive under the influence of alcohol endanger not only themselves but also other drivers,
pedestrians and other people in the same vehicle as well. From this point of view, it is not wrong
to say that men have more dangerous attitudes than women. Using these results one can
extrapolate that men of 32+ years of age have dangerous attitudes in traffic. When the safety
belt use percentages are examined in Hawaii, Australia, Canada, USA, and Turkey as being
0.81, 0.91, 0.87, 0.58, and 0.21, respectively, it is very clear that the drivers in Turkey have bad
habits about this issue.
An individuals behaviors should be identified and understood through his/her attitudes. Like
many of the behaviors, the attitudes have also gained through learning. For these reasons,
before investigating drivers behaviors and attitudes in traffic, inferences may be made as to
10

they were involving an attitude toward to traffic before and during candidate driving process.
Individuals traffic education and teaching them traffic culture before they drive in the traffic
should be discussed in an integrated frame. Drivers behaviors and attitudes toward traffic do
not emerge immediately after they begin to drive in the traffic. While the individual is being
socialized, he/she carries his/her attitudes culturally gained toward traffic together with traffic
education gained as a response tendency in the traffic system which he/she actively takes
place. To determine candidate drivers attitudes on this subject before being active drivers
would provide opportunity to create an accurate training system or a process
The relation between demographic characteristics of the drivers and the risky attitude are
determined scientifically in the studies that exist in the literature. For this reason, these risky
attitudes should be determined during education and should be transformed into positive
attitudes bearing in mind that these candidates will be active drivers in the near future. It will be
useful to explain the harms of speeding, drunk driving, and the necessity of safety belt use with
the aid of visual communication devices and statistics in the lessons during the driving course
program.
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14

Fig. 1 The independence graph of the log-linear model [AB], [BCD]
15

(c)
(d)
(b)
(e)
(a)
Figure 2. The [bcde],[ abce] model graph
16

(c)
(d)
(b)
(e)
(a)
Figure 3. The [bcde] ,[abe] model graph
17

(c)
(d)
(b)
(e)
(a)
Figure 4. The [bde], [bcd],[ abe] model graph
18

Table I. The demographical distribution of individuals in the sample
Variable
1824
184
71.3
2531
51
19.8
32 +
23
8.9
Male
145
56.2
Female
113
43.8
Elementary school
71
27.5
High school
74
28.7
113
43.8
Age
Gender
Education Level
University
19

Interaction
Degree of
p
free
ab
37.0896
22
0.0231
ac
23.7370
18
0.1638
ad
14.9771
13
0.3088
ae
21.4303
13
0.0648
bc
149.8777
28
0.0000
bd
53.1245
19
0.0000
be
38.0345
19
0.0059
cd
36.6492
17
0.0038
ce
28.8983
19
0.0676
de
22.8647
12
0.0289
Table II. The first step results of the analysis done to reach the most proper model
20

21

Table III. The Results of the hypotheses
Hypotheses
H1:
H2:
H3:
H4:
H5:
H6:
H7:
Symbol
Graphic
Result
ae
confirmed
a
be
Not confirmed
ce
Not confirmed
de
confirmed
ad
Not confirmed
bd
confirmed
cd
confirmed
H8:
a d /b
confirmed
H9:
c e/b
confirmed
H10:
c d /e
confirmed
H11:
c e/d
confirmed
22

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ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

Volume 5 Number 2 Year 2010; P:14-23

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

2007; 570025, 664540 and 749456 traffic accidents occurred

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

Attitude is an important factor determining the behavior of an individual .According to Allport

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

Education level (elementary school, high school, university)

d. I do not think that drunk driving is risky (I agree, I disagree).

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M= U + UA + UB + UC + UD + UAB + UBC + UBD + UCD + UBCD

[A (C, D) B]. Graphical

must also include UABC . A model is

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

Figure 1 The independence graph of the log-linear model [AB], [BCD]

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

=14.8799 (df=12;p=0.2481). The ac and ae edges were left in the

Figure 3. The [bcde] ,[abe] model graph

2 =18.8850 (df=12;p=0. 0.0913) and ae: 2 =16.3964 (df=8;p=0.0370).

d / b, e ] [ c e / b, d ]. The graphic related to this model is

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The percentages of the subjects that declare safety belt use

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

Fig. 1 The independence graph of the log-linear model [AB], [BCD]

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

Table I. The demographical distribution of individuals in the sample

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ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

ALATOOACADEMIC STUDIES; ISSN:16945263

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