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CHAPTER
Predicting Prices
The Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a big enough
player in the global oil market to influence the price of oil. To raise the
price, OPEC must cut production. If it does so, by how much will the
price rise? Will non-OPEC producers also cut production? Or will they
produce more to take advantage of the higher price achieved by OPECs
actions? To answer questions like these, we need to know the quantitative relationship between price and the quantities demanded and supplied. All firms are interested in the factors that influence prices and
in predicting prices. A pizza producer wants to know if the arrival of a
new competitor will lower the price of pizza, whether as peoples
incomes rise they will spend more or less on pizza. A labor union wants
to know whether, if it goes for a large wage rise the number of people
employed will fall by a lot or a little.
In this chapter, you will learn about a tool that helps us to answer
questions like the ones weve just considered. You will learn about the
elasticity of demand and supply. At the end of the chapter, well return
to the questions the OPEC needs to answer and see how the concept of
elasticity helps us to understand the effects of OPECs actions on the
price of crude oil, a price that has a big impact on the price that you end
up paying for gasoline.
81
ELASTICITY
FIGURE 4.1
C HAPTER 4
40.00
S0
An increase
in supply
brings ...
S1
30.00
... a large
fall in price ...
20.00
10.00
5.00
DA
0
10
13 15
20
25
Quantity (pizzas per hour)
82
40.00
An increase
S0 in supply
brings ...
S1
30.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
DB
... a small
fall in
price ...
... and a
large increase
in quantity
10
15 17
20
25
Quantity (pizzas per hour)
PRICE ELASTICITY
Price elasticity of
demand
Percentage change
in quantity demanded
.
Percentage change in price
FIGURE 4.2
83
DEMAND
20.50
Calculating Elasticity
OF
P = $1
Elasticity = 4
20.00
Pave = $20
New
point
19.50
D
Q = 2
Qave = 10
0
10
11
Quantity (pizzas per hour)
Percentage change
in quantity demanded
Percentage change in price
% Q
% P
Q>Qave
P>Pave
2>10
1>20
4.
84
C HAPTER 4
ELASTICITY
D1
Price
Price
Price
FIGURE 4.3
Elasticity = 0
Elasticity =
Elasticity = 1
12
12
12
D2
0
(a) Perfectly inelastic demand
Quantity
Quantity
Quantity
part (b) illustrates the demand for a good with a unit elasticity of demand. And the demand curve in part (c) illustrates
the demand for a good with an infinite elasticity of demand.
PRICE ELASTICITY
DEMAND
85
FIGURE 4.4
OF
25.00
Elasticity = 4
20.00
Elastic
15.00
Elasticity = 1
12.50
Inelastic
10.00
Elasticity = 1/4
5.00
10
20 25
30
40
50
Quantity (pizzas per hour)
C HAPTER 4
ELASTICITY
FIGURE 4.5
Price (dollars per pizza)
86
25.00
Elastic
demand
20.00
Unit
elastic
15.00
12.50
10.00
Inelastic
demand
5.00
25
350.00
Maximum
total revenue
312.50
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50
Quantity (pizzas per hour)
(a) Demand
Figure 4.5 shows how we can use this relationship between elasticity and total revenue to estimate elasticity using the total revenue test. The
total revenue test is a method of estimating the
price elasticity of demand by observing the change
in total revenue that results from a change in the
price, when all other influences on the quantity
sold remain the same.
50.00
When demand
is elastic, a
price cut
increases
total revenue
When demand
is inelastic, a
price cut
decreases
total revenue
25
50
Quantity (pizzas per hour)
PRICE ELASTICITY
TABLE 4.1
OF
87
DEMAND
Good or Service
Elasticity
Elastic Demand
Metals
1.52
1.39
1.30
Furniture
1.26
Motor vehicles
1.14
1.10
Professional services
1.09
Transportation services
1.03
Inelastic Demand
Gas, electricity, and water
0.92
Chemicals
0.89
0.78
Clothing
0.64
Tobacco
0.61
0.56
Housing services
0.55
0.42
0.34
Food
0.12
Oil
0.05
88
C HAPTER 4
ELASTICITY
FIGURE 4.6
Price Elasticities in
10 Countries
Country
Food budget
(percentage of income)
Tanzania
62
India
56
Korea
40
35
Brazil
Greece
31
Spain
28
17
France
Germany
15
Canada
14
United States
12
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Price elasticity
MORE ELASTICITIES
B ,
out how a price cut by the burger shop next door will
affect the demand for your pizza. You know that pizzas and burgers are substitutes. And you know that
when the price of a substitute for pizza falls, the
demand for pizza decreases. But by how much?
You also know that pizza and soft drinks are complements. And you know that if the price of a complement of pizza falls, the demand for pizza increases. So
you wonder whether you might keep your customers
by cutting the price you charge for soft drinks. But
again by how much?
To answer these questions, you need to calculate
the cross elasticity of demand. Lets examine this elasticity measure.
Cross Elasticity of Demand
We measure the influence of a change in the price of
a substitute or complement by using the concept of
the cross elasticity of demand. The cross elasticity of
demand is a measure of the responsiveness of the
demand for a good to a change in the price of a substitute or complement, other things remaining the
same. We calculate the cross elasticity of demand by
using the formula:
DEMAND
89
Price of pizza
More Elasticities
of Demand
OF
Price of a burger,
a substitute, rises.
Positive cross elasticity
Percentage change
Cross elasticity
in quantity demanded
of demand Percentage change in price of .
a substitute or complement
The cross elasticity of demand can be positive or
negative. It is positive for a substitute and negative for
a complement.
Substitutes Suppose that the price of pizza is constant and 9 pizzas an hour are sold. The price of a
burger then rises from $1.50 to $2.50. No other
influence on buying plans changes and the quantity
of pizzas sold increases to 11 an hour.
The change in the quantity demanded is the new
quantity, 11 pizzas, minus the original quantity, 9
pizzas, which is +2 pizzas. The average quantity is 10
pizzas. So the quantity of pizzas demanded increases
by 20 percent (+20). That is,
D1
D0
D2
Quantity of pizza
90
C HAPTER 4
ELASTICITY
Percentage change
in quantity demanded
.
Percentage change in income
20%
4.
5%
As income increases, the quantity of pizza
demanded increases faster than income. The demand
for pizza is income-elastic. Other goods in this category include ocean cruises, international travel, jewelry, and works of art.
Income Inelastic Demand If the percentage
tity demanded of a good decreases, the income elasticity of demand is negative. Goods in this category
include small motorcycles, potatoes, and rice. Lowincome consumers buy most of these goods.
MORE ELASTICITIES
FIGURE 4.8
Elastic Demand
Airline travel
5.82
Movies
3.41
Foreign travel
3.08
Electricity
1.94
Restaurant meals
1.61
1.38
Haircuts
1.36
Automobiles
1.07
Inelastic Demand
Tobacco
0.86
Alcoholic drinks
0.62
Furniture
0.53
Clothing
0.51
0.38
Telephone
0.32
Food
0.14
OF
DEMAND
91
Income Elasticities in
10 Countries
Country
Income
(percentage of U.S. income)
Tanzania
3.3
India
5.2
Korea
20.4
Brazil
36.8
Greece
41.3
Spain
55.9
Japan
61.6
France
81.1
Canada
99.2
United States
100
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Income elasticity
ELASTICITY
Elasticity of Supply
Y ,
price rises and the quantity increases. But does the
price rise by a large amount and the quantity increase
by a little? Or does the price barely rise and the quantity increase by a large amount?
The answer depends on the responsiveness of the
quantity supplied to a change in price. You can see
why by studying Fig. 4.9, which shows two possible
scenarios in a local pizza market. Figure 4.9(a) shows
one scenario, and Fig. 4.9(b) shows the other.
In both cases, demand is initially D0. In part (a),
the supply of pizza is shown by the supply curve SA.
In part (b), the supply of pizza is shown by the supply curve SB. Initially, in both cases, the price is $20 a
pizza and the quantity produced and consumed is 10
pizzas an hour.
Now increases in income and population increase
the demand for pizza. The demand curve shifts rightward to D1. In case (a), the price rises by $10 to $30
a pizza, and the quantity increases by only 3 to 13 an
hour. In contrast, in case (b), the price rises by only
$1 to $21 a pizza, and the quantity increases by 10 to
20 pizzas an hour.
The different outcomes arise from differing
degrees of responsiveness of the quantity supplied to a
change in price. We measure the degree of responsiveness by using the concept of the elasticity of supply.
40.00
Elasticity
of supply
Percentage change in
quantity supplied
.
Percentage change in price
An increase in
demand brings ...
SA
30.00
20.00
... a large
price rise ...
D1
10.00
D0
10
13 15
20
25
Quantity (pizzas per hour)
40.00
An increase
in demand
brings ...
30.00
21.00
20.00
SB
D1
... a small
price rise ...
FIGURE 4.9
C HAPTER 4
92
10.00
D0
10
15
20
25
Quantity (pizzas per hour)
ELASTICITY
S1
S2
Elasticity of
supply =
Elasticity of
supply = 0
Price
Price
93
S U P P LY
FIGURE 4.10
OF
S3
Elasticity of
supply = 1
Quantity
0
(b) Unit elastic supply
Quantity
Quantity
supply. All linear supply curves that pass through the origin
illustrate supplies that are unit elastic. The supply curve in
part (c) illustrates the supply for a good with an infinite elasticity of supply.
94
C HAPTER 4
ELASTICITY
1. Momentary supply
2. Long-run supply
3. Short-run supply
When the price of a good rises or falls, the momentary supply curve shows the response of the quantity
supplied immediately following a price change.
Some goods, such as fruits and vegetables, have a
perfectly inelastic momentary supply a vertical
supply curve. The quantities supplied depend on
crop-planting decisions made earlier. In the case of
oranges, for example, planting decisions have to be
made many years in advance of the crop being available. The momentary supply curve is vertical because,
on a given day, no matter what the price of oranges,
producers cannot change their output. They have
picked, packed, and shipped their crop to market,
and the quantity available for that day is fixed.
In contrast, some goods have a perfectly elastic
momentary supply. Long-distance phone calls are an
example. When many people simultaneously make a
call, there is a big surge in the demand for telephone
cables, computer switching, and satellite time, and
the quantity bought increases. But the price remains
constant. Long-distance carriers monitor fluctuations
in demand and reroute calls to ensure that the quantity supplied equals the quantity demanded without
changing the price.
The long-run supply curve shows the response of
the quantity supplied to a change in price after all the
technologically possible ways of adjusting supply
have been exploited. In the case of oranges, the long
run is the time it takes new plantings to grow to full
maturity about 15 years. In some cases, the longrun adjustment occurs only after a completely new
production plant has been built and workers have
been trained to operate it typically a process that
might take several years.
The short-run supply curve shows how the quantity supplied responds to a price change when only
ELASTICITY
TABLE 4.3
OF
S U P P LY
95
Perfectly elastic or
infinitely elastic
Elastic
Infinity
A relationship is described as
Perfect substitutes
Infinity
Substitutes
Independent
Positive, less
than infinity
Zero
Complements
Unit elastic
Inelastic
Perfectly inelastic
or completely inelastic
Income elastic
(normal good)
Income inelastic
(normal good)
Negative income elastic
(inferior good)
Greater than 1
Less than 1 but
greater than zero
Less than zero
A relationship is described as
Perfectly elastic
Infinity
Elastic
Elasticities of Supply
Inelastic
Perfectly inelastic
*In each description, the directions of change may be reversed. For example, in this case, the smallest possible decrease in price causes an infinitely large increase in the
quantity demanded.
The Organization of
Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) said
that it would cut oil production by 1.5 million
barrels a day, or 6 percent, if non-OPEC
members also made deep
cuts to production.
96
Economic Analysis
30
25
Price rise as
demand
increased
20
15
Forecasts
made in 2001
10
2002:4
Decrease
in demand
30.00
D2001
10.00
Price in 2002
with no cut in
production
0
S2001
18.00
65
D2002
71
75
80
Quantity (millions of barrels per day)
2001:2
Price fall as
demand
decreased
1987:2
1999:4
Year/quarter
20.00
Price in 2002
with OPEC
production cut
Decrease
in OPEC
production
S2002
S2001
15.00
Increase
in non-OPEC
quantity
supplied
11.50
10.00
D2002
0
69
70.5 71 72
73
74
75
Quantity (millions of barrels per day)
97
98
C HAPTER 4
ELASTICITY
KEY POINTS
KEY FIGURES
AND TABLE
Figure 4.2
Figure 4.3
Figure 4.4
Cross elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of demand for one good to a change in
the price of a substitute or a complement.
The cross elasticity of demand with respect to the
price of a substitute is positive. The cross elasticity
of demand with respect to the price of a complement is negative.
Income elasticity of demand measures the responsiveness of demand to a change in income. For a
normal good, the income elasticity of demand is
positive. For an inferior good, the income elasticity of demand is negative.
When the income elasticity is greater than 1, as
income increases, the percentage of income spent
on the good increases.
When the income elasticity is less than 1 but
greater than zero, as income increases, the percentage of income spent on the good decreases.
Figure 4.5
Figure 4.7
Table 4.3
KEY TERMS
Cross elasticity of demand, 89
Elastic demand, 85
Elasticity of supply, 92
Income elasticity of demand, 90
Inelastic demand, 85
Perfectly elastic demand, 85
Perfectly inelastic demand, 84
Price elasticity of demand, 82
Total revenue, 86
Total revenue test, 86
Unit elastic demand, 84
P RO B L E M S
25
50
75
20
40
60
80
100 120
Pens per day
99
Quantity demanded
200
50
250
45
300
40
350
35
400
30
a. What happens to total revenue if the price
of a chip falls from $400 to $350?
b. What happens to total revenue if the price
of a chip falls from $350 to $300?
c. At what price is total revenue at a maximum?
Use the total revenue test to answer this
question.
d. At an average price of $350, is the demand
for chips elastic or inelastic? Use the total
revenue test to answer this question.
8. The demand schedule for sugar is
Price
Quantity demanded
5
25
10
20
15
15
20
10
25
5
a. What happens to total revenue if the price
of sugar rises from $5 to $15 per pound?
b. What happens to total revenue if the price
rises from $15 to $25 per pound?
c. At what price is total revenue at a maximum? Use the total revenue test to answer
this question.
d. At an average price of $20 a pound, is the
demand for sugar elastic or inelastic? Use the
total revenue test to answer this question.
*9. In problem 7, at $250 a chip, is the demand for
chips elastic or inelastic? Use the total revenue
test to answer this question.
100
C HAPTER 4
ELASTICITY
Quantity supplied
10
20
30
40
200
400
600
800
Quantity supplied
120
125
130
135
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600