Calculation Model of Spare Parts Demand and Its

Application in Management of Fully-mechanized

Coal Mining Machinery
YUAN Qing-he

HOU Yan-hui

Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control

Qingdao, China

College of Economics and Management

Shandong University of Science and Technology
Qingdao, China

yuan_qinghe@sina.com

coolhyh@126.com

Shandong University of Science and Technology

CUI Zong-qing

YUAN Qing-wen

Key Laboratory of Mine Disaster Prevention and Control

Qingdao, China

Department of Finance and Economics

Shandong University of Science and Technology
Jinan, China

AbstractSpare parts are important material foundation of

country. Accordingly, development of fully-mechanized coal

equipment use and maintenance, spare parts forecasting is the

mining technology also put forward a high requirement for the

core and key of equipment protection scheme. Spare parts of

management of fully-mechanized coal miningmachinery spare

fully-mechanized

Shandong University of Science and Technology

classified

parts. In the past, we often analyzed the demand of spare parts

according to three type of life distribution of exponential

according to the production planning and experience, there was

distribution, normal distribution and Weibull distribution. Three

no more accurate quantitative analysis and it was not

models to calculate the demands for the three types of spare

conducive to make scientific decision for spare parts

parts are established respectively under the condition of

management.

satisfying spare availability and application example of spare

implemented centralized management and purchasing, if they

parts of fully-mechanized coal mining machinery was given.

didnt have accurate analysis and forecast, this would result in

coal

mining

machinery

were

Particularly,

many

large

mining

groups

unnecessary occupation of funds or production delays.

Keywords-spare parts of fully-mechanized coal mining

machinery; demand; forecasting; life distribution

There are many methods on the classification of spare

parts. Early 20th century, 60 years, Allen put forwards taking

. INTRODUCTION

available maintenance properties of spare parts into account

The analysis of equipment spares demand is a typical

and dividing spare parts into two types of non-maintenance

technical and economic problem. It is proved that we should

and maintenance. Based on the key of equipment which parts

take the technical, economic and other factors into

were affiliated, R. Dekker proposed dividing parts into critical

consideration to decide the storage and purchasing quantity of

spare parts and non-critical spare parts[2][3]. The domestic

spare parts, and it is necessary to combine enterprise

classification of spare parts is mainly ABC analysis. Regarding

production needs to choose the scientific and reasonable

such properties as the unit price, the procurement cycle, the

quantitative basis[1].

degree of impact of the equipment, quantity and longevity,

As a major means of coal mining technology in the world,

ABC classification of various spare parts were made.

fully-mechanized coal mininghas developed rapidly in our

The specific choice of classification method and demand

___________________________________
978-1-61284-109-0/11/$26.00 2011 IEEE



forecasting method of spare parts should take the equipment

management objectives and the specific situation into

cases:

consideration. In this article, spare parts of fully-mechanized

1)The repairable parts were changed in coal mining

coal mining machinery were classified according to their life

working face, then brought it to ground to repair ,and it could

distribution, using three typical distribution of spare parts

be calculated by the accumulative working hours(h) during

demand model: exponential life, normal life and Weibull Life

repairing turnover period(TAT,turn around time of failed parts )

spare parts demand model, the quantitative spare parts demand

forecasting

method

of

fully-mechanized

coal

The repairable parts can be divided into two kinds of

in this time,TAT in general could be much shorter than initial

mining

guarantee period ,such as 3-6 months.But we should note that

machinery was put forward, the application of this method can

turnover period (calendar time) could not be too short to ensure

provide a scientific and rational basis for decision making [4].

there is no queuing phenomenon of spares for repairing in

service stations.

. CALCULATION MODEL OF FULLY-MECHANIZED COAL

MINING MACHINERY SPARE PARTS DEMAND

2)The parts were repaired in working face.At this time,

According to the classification, distribution type and

when the mean time between failures was much larger than the

applicable scope of spares, the calculation model of spares

mean time to repair, the accumulative working hours during

could be determined so that we could determine the number of

repairing turnover period would be replaced by the mean time

spares.

to repair to represent t.

A. Calculation model of spares of exponential life parts

If some parts life in fully-mechanized coal mining

Normal distribution can be used to calculate the demand

approximately when this condition is met: NOt > 5, and

mechanism obey exponential distribution, we should determine

calculation formula of the spare demands can be simplified as

the demand of spares on (1) to meet the prescriptive security

follows:

probability [5].

j 0

S NOt u

The

demand

of

spares

of

(2)


In this formula, up represent the quantile of normal
1
distribution. We can find it from the GB4086.1 Statistical
Tables for the normal distribution.The up correspond with the
commonly used P as shown in Table 1.

(NOt) j
exp(  N O t )
j

In this formula:
s-

NOt

some

parts

in
TABLE . TABLE OF RELATION BETWEEN SECURITY PROBABILITY

fully-mechanized coal mining mechanism;

AND QUANTILE OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

N-The number of machines parts in fully-mechanized

coal mining mechanism;
-The failure rate of some parts in fully-mechanized coal
mining mechanism (Assuming spare is ineffective during store
period);

0.9

up

l.28

0.95

1.65

0.99

0.995

2.33

3.09

B .Calculation model of spares of normal life parts

t- It is treated according to different situations, for

Known the mean value of fully-mechanized coal mining

example:

machinery normal life spare E, standard deviation ,

t can be expressed as accumulative working hours(h)

replacement period t(after component failure, the time we can

of equipment during initial guarantee period (generally

get it ) and spare supply probability P, the demand of single

l-2 years) for the disposable spares, such as

part(a single replaceable unit) can be calculated by The

consumptive parts, unrepairable parts and so on.

following formula[5]:



V 2t

t
 u
E

Weibull distribution and other symbols are the same with

(3)

formula (1).

In this formula, up--the quantile of normal distribution, it

We can get the method  based field data from IEC

can be found from the GB4086.1Statistical Tables for the

616491997 Goodness-of-fit tests, confidence intervals and

normal distribution. Other symbols are the same with formula

lower confidence limits for Weibull distributed data to

(1) unless they have been stated by the text above. Using (3)

calculate the weibull distribution parameters(,).

can easily derive equation (2), we just need to calculate

.EXAMPLE CALCULATIONS

approximately the condition of spares of exponential life parts

with

normal
1
nO

,V

distribution.
1

(nO )

A. The failure time statistics of this type of electro mechnical

Substituting

by researching in fully-mechanized coal mining mechanism

into equation (3) to reach the

were shown in Table 2.

conclusion.

TABLE . FAILURE TIME STATISTICS (UNIT: HOUR)

C. Calculation model of spares of Weibull life parts

Failure time (hours)

If some parts life in fully-mechanized coal mining

mechanism obey Weibull distribution, the probability

density function of Weibull distribution can be expressed as

follows[6]:

f (x)

E
K

xJ

E 1

xJ


1258.5

1772.8

859.9

1456.5

435.8

1974.7

562.8

539.3

1444.1

1156.2

383.1

108.7

1497.8

471.2

595.7

1040.7

578.5

795.9

258.8

2109.8

935.0

742.1

851.3

637.5

753.1

506.1

931.2

1195.3

868.7

1011.5

484.3

691.2

1236.7

1068.7

786.3

In this formula:shape parameter , scale parameter ,

915.9

1257.3

247.0

961.0

227.1

location parameter (as =1, =0,the function obeys

732.7

603.2

1440.3

123.0

1208.6

exponential distribution).Known the replacement period of

1880.2

2147.9

1247.1

759.9

830.5

life parts t, the demand can be determined by the formula (4)

We used MATLAB Release 12.1 of Weibplot function to

when the parts meet spares supply probability P.

u pk


2

From the Weibull distribution (Figure 1) that was basically

Var (W )
4 subject to the linear graph, so that the data obeyed the Weibull
E

u pk

t
(
) 
2
E
2

determine whether the data obeyed the Weibull distribution.

 k

distribution.

In this formula:

up -- the quantile of normal distribution, we can find it

from the GB4086.1Statistical Tables for the normal
distribution.

E--average

K u * 1 
E (Assuming

life

the

location parameter =0);

The coefficient of variation

k

exponential distribution;

Var(
E

* 1  2

* 1  1 E

W )

, k=1 for the


2 5 for the

Tim e (hour)

Figure1. WEIBULL Probability Plot



. CONCLUSIONS

95% parameter estimation for the confidence interval, we

could get = 2, K 10 3 , also know total working hours t =

To provide an effective basis for decision making in

4320. P t 0.9 , how to calculate the amount of storage of

the spares required?

storage and purchase planning of the fully-mechanized coal

mining machinery spares and to achieve the thinking and
philosophy of"Reliability is created by the designing and

Answers were as follows:

K u * (1 

management",this paper analyzed the calculating model which

1000 u * (1 . 5 )

886 h

life distribution obeyed exponential distribution, Weibull

distribution and normal distribution in the fully-mechanized

Substituted = 2 into equation (5), K = 0.5227 could be

coal mining machinery spares. But the above models are just

an abstract mathematical relationship and the calculation

into equation (6) to

accuracy depends on the accuracy of statistical data, which

6 . 59 ,then rounding s = 7. Therefore, seven parts

puts forward a higher requirement for the storage of spares

obtained from distribution table . Substituted

0 . 5227 t

886 h k

reach S

4320 h

1 . 28

were needed to meet the requirement.

and maintenance inspections on-site.

B. The numbers of machines parts in fully mechanized coal

REFERENCES

mining mechanism were 20 (repairable parts), the failure rate

of every part O

5

10

[1]

times / h, the guarantee period of

[2]

maintenance plan was two years, and the repairing turnover

[3]

period of parts sent to the groud was six month. 30 days per
month, working 24 hours a day, P t 0.95 , how to determine

[4]

the demand of spares?

Answers:

[5]

The parts were repairable and were sent to ground to be

[6]

repaired. T should be calculated by working hours during the

repairing

turnover
t

therefore,

20

N Ot

period
6 u 30 u 24

10

5

4320

of

parts,

,
substituting

times/h,

P t 0 . 95

0 . 864

,
into equation (1) to get
after
iterative
computation.
Therefore, three parts were
S |3
needed to meet the requirement.
C. The average life of normal life part in fully mechanized
coal

mining
V
2 u 10

variance
period t

mechanism,
2

200
h

, p =

0.5( u

,
p

1 . 65

10

,the

replacement
in formula (3),

how to determine the demand of spares?

Answers:
S

2 u 10 4
4 u 10 4 u 2 u 10 4

1
.
65
10 3
10 9

21 .5 | 22

Therefore, twenty-two parts were needed to meet the

requirement.



Mei Qizhi, Liao Jiongsheng, Sun Huizhong The Foundation of

System Reliability Engineering ,Beijing, Science Press, 1987.
Mu Zhizhong, Reliability Design of Mechanical Parts, Beijing,
Mechanical Industry Press, 1988.
Li Jinguo, Ding Hongbing, Computing Model of Spare Parts Demand,
Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing, 2000(3), pp.
11-14.
Zhao Yu, Fu Hongyong, Zhang Jian, Demand Nnalysis of Spare Parts
of the Avionics Equipment, Systems Engineering and
ElectronicTechnology, 2002, 24 (3), pp. 1-3.
Peng Wenjuan, Han Song, Sun Mingming, Wang Liqiang, Calculating
Modes of Spare Parts Demand Based on Types of Life Distribution,
Ship Electronic Engineering, 2009(12),pp.183-185.
Li Wusheng, An Overview of Spare Parts Demand Prediction
Technology, Logistics Technology, 2007(8), pp. 30-33.