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CHAPTER 2 The Failure Distribution

2.1 The Reliability Function


() = Pr{ } .2.1
Where:
() 0, (0) = 1 lim () = 0

() = 1 () = Pr{ < } ....2.2


Where:
(0) = 0 lim () = 1

Notes:
() =
() =
()
()
() = = ..2.3
Where () is probability density function
() has two properties:

() 0 0 () = 1, then:

() = 0 ( ) ....2.4

() = ( ) ...2.5
So:
0 () 10 () 1
Example 2.1 Given the following PDF for the random variable T,
the time (in operating hours) to failure of a compressor, what is
its realibility for a 100-hr operating life?
0.001
0
() {(0.001 + 1)2

0
Solution

() =

= () 2.6

From the previous example,


Pr{10 100} = (10) (100) =
= 0.081
2.2 Mean Time to Failure

1
1

0.01 + 1 0.1 + 1

= () = () . . . . 2.7

= () . . . 2.8
0

Equation 2.8 is often easier to apply than 2.7.


Median time to failure, defined by
( ) = 0.5 = Pr{ } 2.9
The mode

( ) = 0
() . 2.10

0.001

(0.001 + 1)2

(0.001 + 1)
1
() =
0.001 + 1
And
() = 1 ()
1
0.001
() = 1
=
0.001 + 1 0.001 + 1
Then:
1
(100) =
= 0.909
0.001(100) + 1
A design life is defined to be the time to failure that
corresponds to a specified reliability R. That is ( ) = . To
find the design life if a reliability of 0.95 is desired, we set
1
( ) =
= 0.95
0.001 + 1
Solving for ,
1
= 1000 (
1) = 52.6
0.95
The probability of a failure occurring within some interval of
time [, ] may be found using any of the three probability
function, since
() =

Pr{ } = () () = () ()

Example 2.2 Consider the probability density function


0.002
0
() {0.002

0
With t in hours. Then

() = 0.002 0.002 = 0.002

And

= 0.002 =
0

0.002
1
| =
0.002 0 0.002

= 500
To find the median time to failure, set
( ) = 0.002 = 0.5
Then solving for ,
ln 0.5
=
= 346.6
0.002
To find the mode, we observe that the function () is
monotonically decreasing and positive. Therefore its maximum
value occurs at = 0, and = 0.

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Example 2.3 Even if two reliability functions have the same


mean, their reliabilities may be quite different for the same
operating time. For example, let
1 () = 0.002
0
With 1 = 500(as shown in example 2)
1000
And 2 () = 1000
0 1000
1000

Where
2 = 0
(1
) =
|1000 =
1000
2000 0
500r
We compute their reliabities for an operating time of 400 hr.
For 1 () we obtain 1 (400) = 0.002(400) = 0.449
1000400
And for 2 (), 2 (400) =
= 0.60
1000

2 = ( )2 () . .2.11
0

2 = 2 () ()2 .2.12
0

Example 2.4 From the first failure distribution in Example 2.3,


we have

()

( ) =

() =

()

1
, 2
1000

(500)2
(500)2 = 83,333

or

( )
( )

() = [ 5106 ]
0

() = [2.5106 2 ] = 0.98
Or
ln 0.98
0.98 =
= 89.89 90
2.5106
Cumulative and average failure rate

() = ( ) . . . .2.15

1
3

3000 0
2.3 Hazard Function Rate
Pr{ + = () ( + )
() ( + )
Pr{ + | } =
()
Then
() ( + )
()
Is the conditional probability of failure per unit of time (failure
rate).
Set
[( + ) ()] 1
() = lim
.
0

()
() 1
()
() =
.
=
. 2.13

() ()
()
() =
()
Integrating,

Equation 2.14 can be used to derive the reliability function


from a known hazard rate function.
Example 2.5 Given the linear hazard function () = 5106
where t is measured in operating hours, what is the design life
if a 0.98 reliability is desired?
Solution:

The average failure rate, defined between two times


1 2 :

1000 2
1
(1000)
0
3 1000
2

() = exp [ ( ) ] . . . .2.14

2 = 2 (0.002 0.002 ) 5002


2 = 250,000 = 500
From the second, with

1
(1 , 2 ) =
( )
2 1
1

ln (1 ) ln (2 )
(1 , 2 ) =
. .2.16
2 1
From Eq. 2.14 and letting 1 = 02 = ,Eq. 2.16 may be
written
ln (0) ln () ln ()
() =
=
0

()
() =

Since ln (0) = ln 1 = 0
Example 2.5 (Continued) The cumulative failure rate is given by

() = 5106 = 2.5106 2
0

And the average failure rate from time 0 to t is


2.5106 2
() =
= 2.5106

Example 2.6 A component has a reliability function given by


2

() = 1 2 for 0

2
3
= (1 2 ) = 2 |

3 0
0

2
=
3
2

1 2 = 0.5; = 0.52 = 0.707

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() =

ln (1

2
)
2

The average failure rate up to the MTTF is


2
() = ( )
3
4
(9) 2
(1
)
2
0.8817
() = ln
=
2

(3 )
2.4 Bathtub Curve

Example 2.7 A simplified form of the bathtub curve is based


upon linear and constant hazard rates:
0
0 1 + 0
1
() 0 <
0
1
{ 2 ( 0 ) + 0 <
Then
2
0
[(0 + ) 1 ( )] 0
2
1
2
0
0
() = ( +
) < 0
21
1
2
2
0
[( ) ( 0 )2 + + ( )]0 <
2
21
{
Where 0 , 1 , 2 0 are constant to be determined. Figure
2.4 portrays this hazard rate graphically.
Conditional Reliability
(|0 ) = Pr{ > 0 + | > 0 }
Pr{ > 0 + } (0 + )
(|0 ) =
=
. .2.17
Pr{ > 0 }
(0 )
Example 2.8 let
0.5
0.5
() =
(
)
,
1000 1000
Which is a DFR. Then from Eq. 2.14, for a reliability of 0.90

2
() = (
) = 0.90
1000
And the design life is found from
= 1000( ln 0.90)2 = 11.1
If we let 0 = 0.5, a sixth-month burn-in period, then
(|0.5) [( + 0.5)/1000]0.5
(|0 ) =
=
= 0.90
(0.5)
(0.5/1000)0.5
And
2

0.5 0.5
= 1000 [ ln 0.90 + (
) ] 0.5 = 15.8
1000
This is an increase of over 4 years in the design life as a result
of a sixth-month burn-in period.
Example 2.9 Let () = , an IFR for > 0, then
2

() = (1/2) and (|0 ) =

(1/2)(+0 )
2
(1/2)0

Which can be simplified to (|0 ) = 0 (1/2)


Since exp(0 ) for >0 is a decreasing function of 0 , the
conditional reliability will as the burn-in period 0 increase.
Example 2.10 For the reliability function given in Example 2.6,
the conditional reliability is

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(|0 ) =

1 ( + 0 )2 /2 2 ( + 0 )2
=
1 02 /2
2 02

Residual MTTF

(0 ) = (|0 ) =
0

(0 ) =

= =
()

(0 )

1
( ) . .2.18
(0 )
0

Where = + 0 . For those units having survived to time


0 , Eq. 2.18 determines their mean remaining lifetime. For
components having IFR (DFR), one would expect the
(0 ) to be a decreasing (increasing) function of 0 , as
shown following examples.
Example 2.11 The reliability function () = ( )/ for
0 and zero else-where has an IFR . Its residual MTTF
given by

1
| = . . 3.2
0

The variance is given by Eq 2.11, or

1 2
1
= ( ) = 2 .3.3

And the standard deviation is = .

0 1
(0 ) = (
)

( )2
0
(0 ) =
| =
0 2 0
2
For 0 0 .
Example 2.12 The reliability function
2

() = (+)2

Where > 0 is a parameter (constant) of the distribution,


has the hazard rate function
2
() = + which is decreasing. The residual MTTF is

( + 0 )2
2
(0 ) =

2
( + )2
0

( + 0 )2 2
(0 ) =
| = + 0
2
+ 0
Which has the interesting property that the residual mean
increase by the amount of the current age. If 0 = 0, the
unconditional mean, MTTF = a, is obtained.

CHAPTER 3 Constant Failure Rate Model


3.1 The Exponential Reliability Function
Assuming () = , 0, > 0. Then, from Eq. 2.14

() = [ ] = , 0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.1
0

()

And = 1
then () = =
The three probability function are illustrated graphically in
Fig. 3.1 for several different values of . To find the MTTF, we
use Eq. 2.8:

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() = [ ( )]
0

Where

() = () .3.7
=1

3.2.1 Failure Modes with CFR Model


If a system consists of independent, serially related
component each having a constant failure rate , then from
Eq. 3.7
() = =
And
/

() =
= = 0.368
( ) = =
1
Then = ln 3.4
When = 0.5, the mean of the distribution is obtained from
Eq. 3.4:
1
0.69315
= ln 0.5 =
= 0.69315 . .3.5

Mathematics for conditional reliability from Eq. 2.17:


( + 0 ) (+0 ) 0
(|0 ) =
=
=
=
(0 )
0
0
(|0 ) = ()
A burn-in period 0 has no subsequent effect on reliability
and will not improve the components reliability. Time to
failure depends only on the length of the observed operating
time (t) and not on its current age (0 ).
3.2 Failure Modes
If () is the reliability function for the th failure mode,
then, assuming independence among the failure modes, the
system reliability () is obtained as

() = () . .3.6
=1

Let () be the failure rate function for the th failure mode.


Then

() = [ ()]
0

And

() = [ ()]
=1

() = [ ()]
0 =1

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=1

() = [ ] = []
0

Where

1
1
1
=
=
1
=1
=1

1
= 3.8

In other words, the system itself will have an exponential


failure time (CFR model). If the components are also all
identical (i.e., = 1 = 2,3, , ), then
1
= 1 and = .3.9
=

3.2.2 Failures on Demand


If a constant failure rate can be assumed for each failure
mode and a constant probability of failure on demand can be
assumed, then the component will have an effective
constant failure rate on a clock-hour basis. Let
= the average failure rate while idle (maybe zero; e.g.,
failures per idle hour)
= the average failure rate while operating (e.g., failures
per operating hour)
= the probability of failure on demand
= average length of the idle time period per cycle
= average length of the operating time per cycle
Then

=
+
+
3.10
+
+
+ +
3.3.3 Reliability Bounds
Even when the CFR model does not apply, it can still de used
to provide bounds on system reliability provided the system
hazard rate can be bounded. Assume that
0 < () then

(
0

And

Halaman 5

[ ] [ (
0

] [ ]
0

Or
. .3.11
For DFR process


() {
3.12
1

>

For an IFR process,

() { < . .3.13
0
The following upper bound for when the hazard rate is
increasing.
1
() {
.3.14
>
Where 1 =
In order for the above equation to be satisfied, a different
must be found for each .
3.4 The Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution
If a failure will never occur prior to some specified time 0 ,
then 0 is a minimum, or threshold, time. It is also known as
the guaranteed lifetime. The parameter 0 is a location
parameter that shifts the distribution an amount equal to 0
to the right on the time (horizontal) axis. This is equivalent to
rewriting the density function by replacing with 0 , with
the domain of the random variable now 0 . For the
exponential distribution, the probability distribution function
becomes
()
() =
= (0 ) 0 < 0 < . .3.15

And the reliability function will take on the following form:


() = (0 ) 0 3.16
()
From Eqs. 3.15 and 3.16 the failure rate is () = () = .
However, the mean of the distribution is no longer 1/ but is
shifted a distance 0 along the axis.
Using integration by parts:

1
= (0 ) = 0 + . .3.17

The median of the distribution is obtained by solving Eq. 3.16


for ,
( ) = (0 ) = 0.5 . .3.18
And obtaining
ln 0.5
0.69315
= 0 +
= 0 +
3.19

The design life for a specified design reliability can be


obtained in the same manner as the median time. Therefore
ln
= 0 +
.3.20

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The variance and standard deviation of the two-parameter


exponential distribution are not affected by the location
parameter. Therefore = 1/. The mode occurs at 0 .
3.5 The Poisson Process
If a component having a constant failure rate is
immediately repaired or replaced upon failing, the number
of failures of observed over a time period has a Poisson
distribution. The probability of observing failures in time
is given by the Poisson probability mass function ():
()
() =
= 0,1,2, 3.21
!
The Poisson distribution is discrete. The mean or expected
number of failures over time is given by , and the
variance of the distribution is also .
Equation 3.21 can be derived by first letting

=
=1

Where , a random variable, is the time between failure


1 and failure and has an exponential distribution with
parameter . Therefore is random variable, the time of
the th failure. Since the sum of independent exponential
random variables has a gamma distribution with parameter
and , the cumulative distribution function for can be
written as
1

{ } = () = 1

=0

()
3.22
!

The cumulative probability given by Eq. 3.22 is the


probability that the th failure will occur by time . Then
mean value for is /, and the variance is /2 . The mode
is ( 1)/. We have
() = { } {+1 } = () +1 ()
Equation 3.21 follows from the above and from Eq. 3.22.
The relationship between the two probability distribution
can also be seen by determining the probability of no failures
occurring in time , which is equivalent to { }. That is,
()0
0 () =
= = ()
0!
If spare components are available to support a continuous
operation over a time period , then

() = () . .3.23
=0

Is the cumulative probability of or fewer failures occurring


during time . Equation 3.23 therefore represents the
probability of satisfying all demands for spare components
during time . Therefore, () is the component reliability if
there are spares available for immediate replacement
when a failure occurs.
3.6 Redundancy and the CFR Model
Consider the case of two independent and redundant
components each having the same constant failure rate . In
Halaman 6

this case a system failure will occur only when both


components have failed. Since (1 )2 is the probability
that both components that will fail by time , the system
reliability () is given by
2

() = 1 (1 ) = 1 (1 2 + 2 )
() = 2 2 . .3.24
The hazard rate in this case is
() 2 2 2
(1 )
() =
=
=
. .3.25
()
2 2
(1 0.5 )
() is clearly not a constant hazard rate. The system does
not have an exponential failure distribution even though
both components are CFR. From equation 3.25 as ,
() . The redundant system failure rate asymptotically
approaches the constant failure rate.

The system MTTF can be determined from

= () = 2 2
0

2 1
3
1.5
=
=
=
. .3.26
2 2

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