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Notes:
() =
() =
()
()
() = = ..2.3
Where () is probability density function
() has two properties:
() 0 0 () = 1, then:
() = 0 ( ) ....2.4
() = ( ) ...2.5
So:
0 () 10 () 1
Example 2.1 Given the following PDF for the random variable T,
the time (in operating hours) to failure of a compressor, what is
its realibility for a 100-hr operating life?
0.001
0
() {(0.001 + 1)2
0
Solution
() =
= () 2.6
1
1
0.01 + 1 0.1 + 1
= () = () . . . . 2.7
= () . . . 2.8
0
( ) = 0
() . 2.10
0.001
(0.001 + 1)2
(0.001 + 1)
1
() =
0.001 + 1
And
() = 1 ()
1
0.001
() = 1
=
0.001 + 1 0.001 + 1
Then:
1
(100) =
= 0.909
0.001(100) + 1
A design life is defined to be the time to failure that
corresponds to a specified reliability R. That is ( ) = . To
find the design life if a reliability of 0.95 is desired, we set
1
( ) =
= 0.95
0.001 + 1
Solving for ,
1
= 1000 (
1) = 52.6
0.95
The probability of a failure occurring within some interval of
time [, ] may be found using any of the three probability
function, since
() =
Pr{ } = () () = () ()
0
With t in hours. Then
And
= 0.002 =
0
0.002
1
| =
0.002 0 0.002
= 500
To find the median time to failure, set
( ) = 0.002 = 0.5
Then solving for ,
ln 0.5
=
= 346.6
0.002
To find the mode, we observe that the function () is
monotonically decreasing and positive. Therefore its maximum
value occurs at = 0, and = 0.
Halaman 1
Where
2 = 0
(1
) =
|1000 =
1000
2000 0
500r
We compute their reliabities for an operating time of 400 hr.
For 1 () we obtain 1 (400) = 0.002(400) = 0.449
1000400
And for 2 (), 2 (400) =
= 0.60
1000
2 = ( )2 () . .2.11
0
2 = 2 () ()2 .2.12
0
()
( ) =
() =
()
1
, 2
1000
(500)2
(500)2 = 83,333
or
( )
( )
() = [ 5106 ]
0
() = [2.5106 2 ] = 0.98
Or
ln 0.98
0.98 =
= 89.89 90
2.5106
Cumulative and average failure rate
() = ( ) . . . .2.15
1
3
3000 0
2.3 Hazard Function Rate
Pr{ + = () ( + )
() ( + )
Pr{ + | } =
()
Then
() ( + )
()
Is the conditional probability of failure per unit of time (failure
rate).
Set
[( + ) ()] 1
() = lim
.
0
()
() 1
()
() =
.
=
. 2.13
() ()
()
() =
()
Integrating,
1000 2
1
(1000)
0
3 1000
2
() = exp [ ( ) ] . . . .2.14
1
(1 , 2 ) =
( )
2 1
1
ln (1 ) ln (2 )
(1 , 2 ) =
. .2.16
2 1
From Eq. 2.14 and letting 1 = 02 = ,Eq. 2.16 may be
written
ln (0) ln () ln ()
() =
=
0
()
() =
Since ln (0) = ln 1 = 0
Example 2.5 (Continued) The cumulative failure rate is given by
() = 5106 = 2.5106 2
0
() = 1 2 for 0
2
3
= (1 2 ) = 2 |
3 0
0
2
=
3
2
Halaman 2
() =
ln (1
2
)
2
(3 )
2.4 Bathtub Curve
2
() = (
) = 0.90
1000
And the design life is found from
= 1000( ln 0.90)2 = 11.1
If we let 0 = 0.5, a sixth-month burn-in period, then
(|0.5) [( + 0.5)/1000]0.5
(|0 ) =
=
= 0.90
(0.5)
(0.5/1000)0.5
And
2
0.5 0.5
= 1000 [ ln 0.90 + (
) ] 0.5 = 15.8
1000
This is an increase of over 4 years in the design life as a result
of a sixth-month burn-in period.
Example 2.9 Let () = , an IFR for > 0, then
2
(1/2)(+0 )
2
(1/2)0
Halaman 3
(|0 ) =
1 ( + 0 )2 /2 2 ( + 0 )2
=
1 02 /2
2 02
Residual MTTF
(0 ) = (|0 ) =
0
(0 ) =
= =
()
(0 )
1
( ) . .2.18
(0 )
0
1
| = . . 3.2
0
1 2
1
= ( ) = 2 .3.3
0 1
(0 ) = (
)
( )2
0
(0 ) =
| =
0 2 0
2
For 0 0 .
Example 2.12 The reliability function
2
() = (+)2
( + 0 )2
2
(0 ) =
2
( + )2
0
( + 0 )2 2
(0 ) =
| = + 0
2
+ 0
Which has the interesting property that the residual mean
increase by the amount of the current age. If 0 = 0, the
unconditional mean, MTTF = a, is obtained.
() = [ ] = , 0. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.1
0
()
And = 1
then () = =
The three probability function are illustrated graphically in
Fig. 3.1 for several different values of . To find the MTTF, we
use Eq. 2.8:
Halaman 4
() = [ ( )]
0
Where
() = () .3.7
=1
() =
= = 0.368
( ) = =
1
Then = ln 3.4
When = 0.5, the mean of the distribution is obtained from
Eq. 3.4:
1
0.69315
= ln 0.5 =
= 0.69315 . .3.5
() = () . .3.6
=1
() = [ ()]
0
And
() = [ ()]
=1
() = [ ()]
0 =1
=1
() = [ ] = []
0
Where
1
1
1
=
=
1
=1
=1
1
= 3.8
=
+
+
3.10
+
+
+ +
3.3.3 Reliability Bounds
Even when the CFR model does not apply, it can still de used
to provide bounds on system reliability provided the system
hazard rate can be bounded. Assume that
0 < () then
(
0
And
Halaman 5
[ ] [ (
0
] [ ]
0
Or
. .3.11
For DFR process
() {
3.12
1
>
() { < . .3.13
0
The following upper bound for when the hazard rate is
increasing.
1
() {
.3.14
>
Where 1 =
In order for the above equation to be satisfied, a different
must be found for each .
3.4 The Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution
If a failure will never occur prior to some specified time 0 ,
then 0 is a minimum, or threshold, time. It is also known as
the guaranteed lifetime. The parameter 0 is a location
parameter that shifts the distribution an amount equal to 0
to the right on the time (horizontal) axis. This is equivalent to
rewriting the density function by replacing with 0 , with
the domain of the random variable now 0 . For the
exponential distribution, the probability distribution function
becomes
()
() =
= (0 ) 0 < 0 < . .3.15
1
= (0 ) = 0 + . .3.17
=
=1
{ } = () = 1
=0
()
3.22
!
() = () . .3.23
=0
() = 1 (1 ) = 1 (1 2 + 2 )
() = 2 2 . .3.24
The hazard rate in this case is
() 2 2 2
(1 )
() =
=
=
. .3.25
()
2 2
(1 0.5 )
() is clearly not a constant hazard rate. The system does
not have an exponential failure distribution even though
both components are CFR. From equation 3.25 as ,
() . The redundant system failure rate asymptotically
approaches the constant failure rate.
= () = 2 2
0
2 1
3
1.5
=
=
=
. .3.26
2 2
Halaman 7