3.

Probability -- Counting Techniques

Some probability problems can be attacked by specifying a sample space

in

which each simple event has probability

(i.e. is "equally likely"). Thus, if a compound event

consists of simple events, then

. To use this approach we need to be able to count the

number of events in and in , and this can be tricky. We review here some basic ways to count
outcomes from "experiments". These approaches should be familiar from high school
mathematics.

General Counting Rules

There are two basic rules for counting which can deal with most problems. We phrase the rules in
terms of ``jobs" which are to be done.
1. The Addition Rule:
Suppose we can do job 1 in ways and job 2 in ways. Then we can do either job 1 or
job 2, but not both, in

ways.

For example, suppose a class has 30 men and 25 women. There are
can pick one student to answer a question.

ways the prof.

1. The Multiplication Rule:

Suppose we can do job 1 in ways and an unrelated job 2 in ways. Then we can do
both job 1 and job 2 in

ways.

For example, to ride a bike, you must have the chain on both a front sprocket and a rear sprocket.
For a 21 speed bike there are 3 ways to select the front sprocket and 7 ways to select the rear
sprocket.
This linkage of OR with addition and AND with multiplication will occur throughout the course,
so it is helpful to make this association in your mind. The only problem with applying it is that
questions do not always have an AND or an OR in them. You often have to play around with rewording the question for yourself to discover implied AND's or OR's.
Example: Suppose we pick 2 numbers at random from digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 with replacement.
(Note: "with replacement" means that after the first number is picked it is "replaced" in the set of
numbers, so it could be picked again as the second number.) Let us find the probability that one
number is even. This can be reworded as: "The first number is even AND the second is odd, OR,

the first is odd AND the second is even." We can then use the addition and multiplication rules to
calculate that there are

ways for this event to occur. Since the first number

can be chosen in 5 ways AND the second in 5 ways, contains

points. The phrase "at
random" in the first sentence means the numbers are equally likely to be picked.

When objects are selected and replaced after each draw, the addition and multiplication rules are
generally sufficient to find probabilities. When objects are drawn without being replaced, some
special rules may simplify the solution.

Problems:
1.
1.
1. A course has 4 sections with no limit on how many can enrol in each
section. 3 students each randomly pick a section. Find the probability:
1. they all end up in the same section
2. they all end up in different sections
3. nobody picks section 1.
2. Repeat (a) in the case when there are sections and students

2. Canadian postal codes consist of 3 letters alternated with 3 digits, starting with a
letter (e.g. N2L 3G1). For a randomly constructed postal code, what is the
probability:
1. all 3 letters are the same?
2. the digits are all even or all odd? Treat 0 as being neither even nor odd.
3. Suppose a password has to contain between six and eight digits, with each digit
either a letter or a number from 1 to 9. There must be at least one number present.
1. What is the total number of possible passwords?

2. If you started to try passwords in random order, what is the probability

you would find the correct password for a given situation within the first
1,000 passwords you tried?

Permutation Rules
Suppose that distinct objects are to be ``drawn" sequentially, or ordered from left to
right in a row.
(Order matters; objects are drawn without replacement)
4. The number of ways to arrange distinct objects in a row is

Explanation: We can fill the first position in ways. Since this object can't be
used again, there are only
ways to fill the second position. So we keep
having 1 fewer object available after each position is filled.
Statistics is important, and many games are interesting largely because of the
extraordinary rate of growth of the function

in

For example

0 1 2 3 4

10

1 1 2 6 24

120

720

5040

40320

362880

3628800

which means that for many problems involving sampling from a deck of cards or a
reasonably large population, counting the number of cases is virtually impossible. There
is an approximation to
says that

which is often used for large

is asymptotic to

asymptotically equal if

called Stirling's formula which

Here, two sequences

as

Stirling's approximation goes to zero as

and

are called

(intuitively, the percentage error in using

For example the error in Stirling's

approximation is less than 1% if

5. The number of ways to arrange objects selected from distinct objects is
using the same reasoning as in #1, and noting that
for the

selection,

objects have already been used. Hence there are

ways to make the

selection. We use the symbol

to

represent
E.g.
While

and describe this symbol as " taken to terms".

.

only has a physical interpretation when and are positive integers with

, it still has a mathematical meaning when is not a positive integer, as long as is a non-

negative integer. For example

We will occasionally encounter such cases in this course but generally and will be
non-negative integers with

. In this case, we can re-write

in terms of factorials.

Note that

The idea in using counting methods is to break the experiment into pieces or ``jobs'' so
that counting rules can be applied. There is usually more than one way to do this.
Example: We form a 4 digit number by randomly selecting and arranging 4 digits from 1,
2, 3,...7 without replacement. Find the probability the number formed is (a) even (b) over
3000 (c) an even number over 3000.

Solution: Let be the set of all possible 4 digit numbers using digits 1, 2, ..., 7 without
repetitions.
Then has
points. (We could calculate this but it will be easier to leave it in this form
for now and do some cancelling later.)
6. For a number to be even, the last digit must be even. We can fill this last position
with a 2, 4, or 6; i.e. in 3 ways. The first 3 positions can be filled by choosing and
arranging 3 of the 6 digits not used in the final position. i.e. in

ways. Then

there are
ways to fill the final position AND the first 3 positions to
produce an even number.

Another way to do this problem is to note that the four digit number is even if and
only if (iff) the last digit is even. The last digit is equally likely to be any one of
the numbers 1, ..., 7 so
7. To get a number over 3000, we require the first digit to be 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7; i.e. it
can be chosen in 5 ways. The remaining 3 positions can be filled in

ways.

Another way to do this problem is to note that the four digit number is over 3000
iff the first digit is one of 3, 4, 5, 6 or 7. Since each of 1, ..., 7 is equally likely to
be the first digit, we get

(number

3000) =

Note that in both (a) and (b) we dealt with positions which had restrictions first,
before considering positions with no restrictions. This is generally the best
approach to follow in applying counting techniques.
8. This part has restrictions on both the first and last positions. To illustrate the
complication this introduces, suppose we decide to fill positions in the order 1
then 4 then the middle two. We can fill position 1 in 5 ways. How many ways can
we then fill position 4? The answer is either 2 or 3 ways, depending on whether
the first position was filled with an even or odd digit. Whenever we encounter a
situation such as this, we have to break the solution into separate cases. One case
is where the first digit is even. The positions can be filled in 2 ways for the first
(i.e. with a 4 or 6), 2 ways for the last, and then
ways to arrange 2 of the
remaining 5 digits in the middle positions. This first case then occurs in
ways. The second case has an odd digit in position one. There are 3
ways to fill position one (3, 5, or 7), 3 ways to fill position four (2, 4, or 6), and
ways to fill the remaining positions. Case 2 then occurs in
We need case 1 OR case 2.

ways.

Another way to do this is to realize that we need only to consider the first and last
digit, and to find (first digit is 3 and last digit is even). There are
different choices for (first digit, last digit) and it is easy to see there are 13 choices
for which first digit

, last digit is even (

minus the impossible outcomes

(4, 4) and (6, 6)). Thus the desired probability is

Exercise: Try to solve part (c) by filling positions in the order 4, 1, middle. You should
get the same answer.
Exercise: Can you spot the flaw in the following?
There are

ways to get an even number (part (a))

There are

ways to get a number

3000 (part (b))

By the multiplication rule there are

ways to get a number which is

even and 3000. (Read the conditions in the multiplication rule carefully, if you believe
this solution.)
Here is another useful rule.
9. The number of distinct arrangements of objects when
alike of a

type, ...,

alike of a

For example: We can arrange

in

are alike of one type,

type

is

ways. These are

However, as soon as we remove the subscripts on the

, the second row is the same as
the first row. I.e., we have only 3 distinct arrangements since each arrangement appears
twice as the

and

are interchanged. In general, there would be

objects were distinct. However each arrangement would appear

was interchanged with itself,
Hence only

times as the

of the

arrangements if all
times as the

type was interchanged with itself, etc.

arrangements are distinct.

Example: 5 men and 3 women sit together in a row. Find the probability that
10. the same gender is at each end

type

11. the women all sit together.

What are you assuming in your solution? Is it likely to be valid in real life?

Solution: If we treat the people as being 8 objects -- 5

have

and 3

, our sample space will

points.

12. To get the same gender at each end we need either

OR
The number of distinct arrangements with a man at each end is
we are arranging

's and

woman at each end is

, since

's in the middle 6 positions. The number with a

. Thus
assuming each arrangement is

equally likely.
13. Treating
There are

as a single unit, we are arranging 6 objects -- 5

's and 1

arrangements. Thus,

Our solution is based on the assumption that all points in are equally probable.
This would mean the people sit in a purely random order. In real life this isn't
likely, for example, since friends are more likely to sit together.

Problems:
14. Digits 1, 2, 3, ..., 7 are arranged at random to form a 7 digit number. Find the
probability that
1. the even digits occur together, in any order
2. the digits at the 2 ends are both even or both odd.
15. The letters of the word EXCELLENT are arranged in a random order. Find the
probability that
1. the same letter occurs at each end.

2.

and

occur together, in any order.

3. the letters occur in alphabetical order.

Combinations
This deals with cases where order does not matter; objects are drawn without
replacement.
The number of ways to choose objects from is denoted by
For and both non-negative integers with

(called " choose ").

Proof: From result 2 earlier, the number of ways to choose objects from and arrange
them from left to right is
must have

. Any choice of objects can be arranged in

ways, so we

(Number of way to choose objects from )

This gives
Note that

as the number of ways to choose objects.

loses its physical meaning when is not a non-negative integer

However it is defined mathematically, provided is a non-negative integer, by

Example: In the Lotto 6/49 lottery, six numbers are drawn at random, without
replacement, from the numbers 1 to 49. Find the probability that
16. the numbers drawn are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (in some order)
17. no even number is drawn.
Solution:

.
.

18. Let the sample space consist of all combinations of 6 numbers from 1, ..., 49;
there are

of them. Since 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 consist of one of these 6-tuples,

, which equals about 1 in 13.9 million.

19. There are 25 odd and 24 even numbers, so there are

numbers are odd.

choices in which all the

(no even number)

(all odd numbers)

=
20. which is approximately equal to 0.0127.
Example: Find the probability a bridge hand (13 cards picked at random from a standard
deck) has
21. 3 aces
22. at least 1 ace
23. 6 spades, 4 hearts, 2 diamonds, 1 club
24. a 6-4-2-1 split between the 4 suits
25. a 5-4-2-2 split.

Solution: Since order of selection does not matter, we take to have

26. We can choose 3 aces in

points.

ways. We also have to choose 10 other cards from

the 48 non-aces. This can be done in

ways. Hence

27. Solution 1: At least 1 ace means 1 ace or 2 aces or 3 aces or 4 aces. Calculate
each part as in (a) and use the addition rule to get

28. Solution 2: If we subtract all cases with aces from the

left with all points having at least 1 ace. This gives

points in we are

(The term
omitted since
of the 4 aces.)

can be

, but was included here to show that we were choosing

29. Solution 3: This solution is incorrect, but illustrates a common error. Choose
1 of the 4 aces then any 12 of the remaining 51 cards. This guarantees we have at

least 1 ace, so
The flaw in this solution is that it counts some points more than once by partially
keeping track of order. For example, we could get the ace of spades on the first
choice and happen to get the ace of clubs in the last 12 draws. We also could get
the ace of clubs on the first draw and then get the ace of spades in the last 12
draws. Though in both cases we have the same outcome, they would be counted
as 2 different outcomes.
(c)
30. Choose the 6 spades in
in

ways and the hearts in

ways and the clubs in

ways and the diamonds

ways.

31. The split in (c) is only 1 of several possible 6-4-2-1 splits. In fact, filling in the
numbers 6, 4, 2 and 1 in the spaces above each suit
There are 4! ways to do this, and then
cards from these suits.

defines a 6-4-2-1 split.

ways to pick the

32. This is the same as (d) except the numbers 5-4-2-2 are not all different. There are
different arrangements of 5-4-2-2 in the spaces

Problems:
33. A factory parking lot has 160 cars in it, of which 35 have faulty emission controls.
An air quality inspector does spot checks on 8 cars on the lot.
1. Give an expression for the probability that at least 3 of these 8 cars will
have faulty emission controls.
2. What assumption does your answer to (a) require? How likely is it that
this assumption holds if the inspector hopes to catch as many cars with
faulty controls as possible?
34. In a race, the 15 runners are randomly assigned the numbers
probability that

. Find the

1. 4 of the first 6 finishers have single digit numbers.

2. the fifth runner to finish is the 3rd finisher with a single digit number.
3. number 13 is the highest number among the first 7 finishers.0.2in

Problems on Chapter 3
35. Six digits from 2, 3, 4, ..., 8 are chosen and arranged in a row without
replacement. Find the probability that
1. the number is divisible by 2
2. the digits 2 and 3 appear consecutively in the proper order (i.e. 23)
3. digits 2 and 3 appear in the proper order but not consecutively.

36. Suppose passengers get on an elevator at the basement floor. There are floors
above (numbered 1, 2, 3, ..., ) where passengers may get off.
1. Find the probability
1. no passenger gets off at floor 1
2. passengers all get off at different floors

2. What assumption(s) underlies your answer to (a)? Comment briefly on

how likely it is that the assumption(s) is valid.
37. There are 6 stops left on a subway line and 4 passengers on a train. Assume they
are each equally likely to get off at any stop. What is the probability
1. they all get off at different stops?
2. 2 get off at one stop and 2 at another stop?
38. Give an expression for the probability a bridge hand of 13 cards contains 2 aces, 4
face cards (Jack, Queen or King) and 7 others. You might investigate the various
permutations and combinations relating to card hands using the Java applet at

39. The letters of the word STATISTICS are arranged in a random order. Find the
probability
1. they spell statistics
2. the same letter occurs at each end.
40. Three digits are chosen in order from 0, 1, 2, ..., 9. Find the probability the digits
are drawn in increasing order; (i.e., the first

the second

the third) if

1. draws are made without replacement

2. draws are made with replacement.
41. The Birthday Problem. Note_1 Suppose there are persons in a room. Ignoring
February 29 and assuming that every person is equally likely to have been born on
any of the 365 other days in a year, find the probability that no two persons in the
room have the same birthday. Find the numerical value of this probability for
. There is a graphic Java applet for illustrating the frequency of

common birthdays at http://www-stat.stanford.edu/

%7Esusan/surprise/Birthday.html
42. You have identical looking keys on a chain, and one opens your office door. If
you try the keys in random order then
1. what is the probability the th key opens the door?
2. what is the probability one of the first two keys opens the door (assume
)?
3. Determine numerical values for the answer in part (b) for the cases
.
2. From a set of
consecutively numbered tickets, three are selected at random
without replacement. Find the probability that the numbers of the tickets form an
arithmetic progression. [The order in which the tickets are selected does not
matter.]
3. The 10,000 tickets for a lottery are numbered 0000 to 9999. A four-digit winning
number is drawn and a prize is paid on each ticket whose four-digit number is any
arrangement of the number drawn. For instance, if winning number 0011 is
drawn, prizes are paid on tickets numbered 0011, 0101, 0110, 1001, 1010, and
1100. A ticket costs $1 and each prize is $500.
1. What is the probability of winning a prize (i) with ticket number 7337? (ii)
with ticket number 7235? What advice would you give to someone buying
a ticket for this lottery?
2. Assuming that all tickets are sold, what is the probability that the operator
will lose money on the lottery?
4.
1. There are 25 deer in a certain forested area, and 6 have been caught
temporarily and tagged. Some time later, 5 deer are caught. Find the
probability that 2 of them are tagged. (What assumption did you make to
do this?)
2. Suppose that the total number of deer in the area was unknown to you.
Describe how you could estimate the number of deer based on the
information that 6 deer were tagged earlier, and later when 5 deer are
caught, 2 are found to be tagged. What estimate do you get?

5. Lotto 6/49. In Lotto 6/49 you purchase a lottery ticket with 6 different numbers,
selected from the set
. In the draw, six (different) numbers are
randomly selected. Find the probability that
1. Your ticket has the 6 numbers which are drawn. (This means you win the
main Jackpot.)
2. Your ticket matches exactly 5 of the 6 numbers drawn.
3. Your ticket matches exactly 4 of the 6 numbers drawn.
4. Your ticket matches exactly 3 of the 6 numbers drawn.
6. (Texas Hold-em) Texas Hold-em is a poker game in which players are each dealt
two cards face down (called your hole or pocket cards), from a standard deck of
52 cards, followed by a round of betting, and then five cards are dealt face up on
the table with various breaks to permit players to bet the farm. These are
communal cards that anyone can use in combination with their two pocket cards
to form a poker hand. Players can use any five of the face-up cards and their two
cards to form a five card poker hand. Probability calculations for this game are
not only required at the end, but also at intermediate steps and are quite
complicated so that usually simulation is used to determine the odds that you will
win given your current information, so consider a simple example. Suppose we
were dealt 2 Jacks in the first round.
1. What is the probability that the next three cards (face up) include at least
one Jack?
2. Given that there was no Jack among these next three cards, what is the
probability that there is at least one among the last two cards dealt faceup?
3. What is the probability that the 5 face-up cards show two Jacks, given that
I have two in my pocket cards?