6.2.

1 The UK Study
One of the most comprehensive studies concerning the underlying causes of urban area
accidents was carried out in the Leeds area in England in the late 1980s (Carsten, Tight,
Southwell & Plows, 1989). During a one-year period, 1254 accidents involving injury or
fatality were investigated on roads with a speed limit of 40 mph (approx. 60 km/h) or less.
Two per cent of the accidents involved fatalities and approximately 20 per cent involved
serious injuries. In addition to the police accident reports, questionnaires were
administered and accident sites were visited in order to obtain as much relevant
information as possible regarding each accident.
An innovative chain of factors approach was used for determining accident causation
based on a multi-level coding scheme comprising of approximately 150 different items.
The results of the study indicated that being unable to anticipate accounted for 29 per
cent, failure to yield for 16 per cent, and failure to anticipate 10 per cent of the first level
factors stated as immediate failures that precipitated an accident. Results also show that
as many as 44 per cent of drivers considered themselves to be the innocent victims of
others mistakes. Failure to yield was also identified as a major factor for adult and
childpedestrians (66 and 78 per cent, respectively).
At the second level that concerned failures that increased the likelihood of an accident,
findings suggested that as many as 62 per cent of the predisposing factors were
situational problems. For drivers, the most important factors were driving too fast for the
situation (29 per cent) and following too close (8 per cent). At the third level regarding
road-user behaviour or lack of skill leading to a failure, different road-user skills were
considered. The greatest problem for motor vehicle drivers was found to be attributable to
a misinterpretation of other road-users intentions, while pedestrians were more
susceptible to problems described as a failure to look. Both groups also indicated a lack
of judgement in the estimation of speed or trajectory of other road-users.
The most common problem at the fourth level, which concerned explanations for failure
or behaviour, indicated that drivers often experienced obstructed vision by objects inside
or outside the vehicle. impairment, particularly the influence of alcohol, was found to be
a problem among both drivers and pedestrians involved in accidents.
6.2.2 The French Study
Another major study that looked at some of the reasons behind accidents in urban areas,
and the differences between these accidents and those occurring outside urban areas,
was conducted by the French traffic researchers Malaterre and Fontaine (1993).
Their investigation was primarily aimed at identifying the safety needs of drivers and the
possibility of satisfying these needs through the use of Intelligent Transport Systems. As a
starting point, the authors identified 17 different basic needs in relation to the driving task.
That were grouped into the road-user skills related to: control, prediction, estimation,
detection, and status.
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Chapter 6: Traffic Accident Causation and Safety Countermeasures in the Urban Environment

A total of 31 79 accidents involving 6049 road-users were investigated. The results of this
study identified the need for better detection in urban areas and particularly at junctions,
and the need for better prediction regarding the intended manoeuvres of road-users.
Detection problems were identified in 61 per cent of all accidents analysed in the urban
environment, and 45 per cent in other types of areas.
On the basis of these findings the authors suggested that many accidents in urban areas
could be avoided by the introduction of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) that could

support the driver through: critical course determination, obstacle detection, vision
enhancement, and safety margin determination.
6.2.3 The American Study
In the USA, researchers Retting, Williams, Preusser, and Weinstein (1995) conducted a
major longitudinal study based on 4526 police reported accidents from three cities and
one urban county. Their study focused specifically on traffic safety problems particular to
the urban environment and was aimed at developing a classification system based on
preaccident driver/vehicle behaviour that could be used by planners and policy makers in an
attempt to reduce the most common types of urban accidents and find suitable
countermeasures.
Results indicated that 56 per cent of all accidents occurred at intersections, and that 31
per cent of these accidents resulted in injury. Pedestrian and cycle accidents were not
included. Five of the thirteen different types of accidents accounted for 76 per cent of the
total number that occurred in the four urban areas, these included: ran traffic control (22
per cent), stopped or stopping (18 per cent), ran-off road (14 per cent), lane-change
(13 per cent), and left-turn oncoming (9 per cent).
These five accident types also accounted for 83 per cent of all accidents involving injury.
Differences between the three cities and county were noted with regard to the rank order
of accidents. The authors proposed that the most common types of accidents, could be
resolved by a combination of better signal timing, increased visibility for traffic signals and
signs, reduced speeds near intersections, red-light cameras, or intersection redesign.
6.2.4 Other Studies
In an interesting though less comprehensive study by Risser (1985) different types of
errors in driving behaviour related to the occurrence of traffic conflicts (rather than
accidents) were systematically investigated. Risser found that the majority of errors could
be attributed to a lack of communication or misunderstanding in the process of
interactions between different road-users. The types of behaviour that were found to be
most highly correlated with conflict occurrence included: risky passing manoeuvres, badly
adapted speed, following too closely, unlawful behaviour at traffic lights, hesitant or risky
lane-changing, cutting corners, insisting on or taking others right of way, jerky steering,
inadequate lateral distance, and lack of precaution.
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Chapter 6: Traffic Accident Causation and Safety Countermeasures in the Urban Environment

6.3 Accidents and

Traffic System Complexity

It is often suggested that the underlying causes of accidents in the traffic system emanate
primarily from exogenous rather than endogenous sources. This suggests that the
complexity of the traffic environment will at certain times and in certain places, exceed the
adaptive capabilities of the road-user and result in errors. Complexity is a concept that
implies limitations in information processing ability, more specifically in relation to
perception and cognition. From a socio-technical point of view, this suggests that the
traffic system is improperly designed with regard to the limitations of road-users. The
problem of understanding complexity, how it can be defined, and how it affects human
performance has been approached from a number of different theoretical perspectives in
the past, although most are bound to specific contexts and lack the possibility for
generalisation.
Complexity has been investigated by, amongst others, Woods (1985) who identified
factors that contribute to complexity in problem-solving domains and the effects these
have on human performance. In particular, four dimensions related to the world itself have

been identified that can be used to define the cognitive demands of any particular problem
solving domain.
These dimensions include dynamism, which refers to the fact that events can occur and
change at indeterminate times; the number of parts and extensiveness of interconnections
between parts and variables (that can be complex in their own right); uncertainty,
suggesting that the available data can be ambiguous incomplete, erroneous or imprecise
with regard to the true state of the world; and risk in terms of an understanding of the
nature of different outcomes and their relative frequencies.
The level of complexity is also dependent on the interactions of the agent, the
problemsolving domain, and the agents representation of this domain. The complexity of
any
particular situation is often revealed in the form of a heightened potential for cognitive or
perceptual errors and can therefore be considered as a system state that increases the
risk for accidents. Complexity is often mentioned in relation to the traffic system but to
data there have been no scientific investigations that have focused specifically on
measures or dimensions of complexity in relation to traffic system processes. 6.4 Human
Error and Accident Causation
Literature from the field of psychology and human factors shows that the number of
accidents attributable to human error has greatly increased during the past 40-50 years. In
the 1960s roughly one-third of all accidents were believed to be due to human error. In
the 1970s a comprehensive study by Treat et.al. (1977) Identified the human element as
the main cause in 57 per cent of the accidents studied. In the 1990s this figure was
reported to be as high as 90 per cent in relation to a study covering 420 in-depth and 2258
on-site accident investigations by Sanders and McCormick (1992).
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