10/8/2009

In this section, well consider the probability

that a certain event happens
given that
some other event happens.

Conditional
Probability
(6.5)

For events E and F,

the probability of E given F is

Example (6.5.11): Let E and F be events with

Compute

This is the probability that E occurs if we

already know that F occurs. Intuitively, our
sample space here is just reduced to F.

and

We just use the formula.

Lets start with an example that is just a

straightforward application of the definition.
3

10/8/2009

Now lets do something that looks like the kind

of problem we typically have dealt with.

Example (6.5.11): Let E and F be events with

Compute

and

Example (6.5.15): A coin is tossed three times. What is the conditional

probability that the outcome is HHH given that at least two heads occur.

We just use the formula.

We dont have to write down the sample space

for this experiment to do this question, but Ill
do it here anyway just to be clear:
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}
As expected, there are 8 elements.
5

Example (6.5.15): A coin is tossed three times. What is the conditional

probability that the outcome is HHH given that at least two heads occur.

In this case, our event F is

F = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}

Example (6.5.6): The proportion of individuals in a certain city earning

more than $35,000 per year is 0.25. The proportion of individuals
earning more than $35,000 and having a college degree is 0.10.
Suppose that a person is randomly chosen and he turns out to be
earning more than $35,000. What is the probability that he is a college
graduate?

To rephrase this question in terms of the language weve

been using,
What is the probability that this person is a college
graduate given that he earns more than $35,000?

and the event E is

E = {HHH}

So we want to find
where E is the
event that the person graduated from
college, and F is the event that the person
earns > $35,000.

10/8/2009

Example (6.5.6): The proportion of individuals in a certain city earning

more than $35,000 per year is 0.25. The proportion of individuals
earning more than $35,000 and having a college degree is 0.10.
Suppose that a person is randomly chosen and he turns out to be
earning more than $35,000. What is the probability that he is a college
graduate?

If we just take our definition and crossmultiply, then

We see that the probability that BOTH E and

F occur is the product of the probabilities
that F occurs and the probability that E
occurs, assuming that F occurs.

Example (6.5.45): A spinner on a wheel with the numbers 2, 5, 6, and 9

in segments of equal area is spun at random. Another spinner on a
wheel with equal segments marked with the numbers 3, 7, and 8 is also
spun. What is the probability that the sum of the two numbers chosen
by the spinners is odd?

10

Example (6.5.45): A spinner on a wheel with the numbers 2, 5, 6, and 9

in segments of equal area is spun at random. Another spinner on a
wheel with equal segments marked with the numbers 3, 7, and 8 is also
spun. What is the probability that the sum of the two numbers chosen
by the spinners is odd?

There are two ways we can have the sum be

odd:
The first number
spun is odd and
the second
number spun is
even

7
11

OR

The first number

spun is even and
the second
number spun is
odd
12

10/8/2009

Example (6.5.45): A spinner on a wheel with the numbers 2, 5, 6, and 9

in segments of equal area is spun at random. Another spinner on a
wheel with equal segments marked with the numbers 3, 7, and 8 is also
spun. What is the probability that the sum of the two numbers chosen
by the spinners is odd?

Example (6.5.45): A spinner on a wheel with the numbers 2, 5, 6, and 9

in segments of equal area is spun at random. Another spinner on a
wheel with equal segments marked with the numbers 3, 7, and 8 is also
spun. What is the probability that the sum of the two numbers chosen
by the spinners is odd?

The probability that

The probability that

The first number spun is odd and the second

number spun is even

The first number spun is even and the second

number spun is odd

is

is

13

Example (6.5.45): A spinner on a wheel with the numbers 2, 5, 6, and 9

in segments of equal area is spun at random. Another spinner on a
wheel with equal segments marked with the numbers 3, 7, and 8 is also
spun. What is the probability that the sum of the two numbers chosen
by the spinners is odd?

The answer to our question is then

14

The first number

spun is odd AND
the second
number spun is
even

OR

The first number

spun is even AND
the second
number spun is
odd

It might help you to think of AND as

multiplication and OR as addition.
15

16

10/8/2009

Two events are said to be independent if

You probably just intuitively multiply the

probabilities of independent events together
without realizing it.

and
Intuitively, we are just saying here that the
probabilities of these events occurring dont
have anything to do with each other. Also,
for independent events,

Example (6.5.22): A true-false exam has 10 questions. Assuming that

the questions are independent and that a student is guessing, find the
probability that she gets 100%.

Here the probability is

17

Example (6.5.51): Roll a die and consider the following two events:
E = {2,4,6} and F = {3,6}. Are the events E and F independent?

18

Example (6.5.51): Roll a die and consider the following two events:
E = {2,4,6} and F = {3,6}. Are the events E and F independent?

Remember that we need

and
Lets compute the probabilities well need
for our formulas:

So, the events E and F are independent.

Notice also that

19

20

10/8/2009

Example (6.5.56): If you bet on the number 7 in roulette, the

probability of winning on a single spin of the wheel is
. Suppose
you bet on 7 for 38 consecutive spins.
a.) Which of the following numbers do you think is closest to the
probability of winning at least once: 1, 0.64, or 0.5?
b.) Calculate the probability of winning at least once.

If a bet is placed on 7, the probability that

the bettor loses is

The probability of losing 38 times in a row is

b.) As usual, to calculate the probability of

winning at least once, well first calculate the
probability of losing 38 times in a row, and
subtract that from 1.

21

So the probability of winning at least once is

22