- STENA Methanol Promotion

Production of Methanol Sustainably and

Related Engine Technology
Workshop - Gothenburg on 6th and 7th of May
Open Seminar on 8th May

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

Methanol - Global Market Analysis

30,0

2013

2018E

MISCELANEOUS

19,6
8,5
5,8
1,6
6,5
14,9
1,5
7,5

24,4
10,5
6,9
2,1
15,9
21,0
1,6
9,8

TOTAL

66,0

92,22

25,0

FORMALDEHYDE
20,0

MTBE

15,0
10,0

ACETIC ACID
MMA

2013

MTO/MTP

2018E
5,0

GASOLINE/FUEL
0,0

09 May 2014

SOLVENTS

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

Methanol - Global Market Analysis

100,0
80,0

2013

2018E

NA

42,8
3,4
11,0
1,6
7,2

64,2
4,1
12,5
2,2
9,2

TOTAL

66,0

92,2

ASIA

60,0

ME - AFRICA
40,0

2013
2018E

20,0
0,0

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

EUROPE
SA - CARIB

Methanol - CHINA Market Analysis

20 000
16 000

FORMALDEHYDE
12 000

MTBE

8 000

ACETIC ACID
2013

4 000

MMA

2018E

MTO/MTP
GASOLINE/FUEL

MISCELLANEOUS

TOTAL
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

2013

2018E

6.358
2.995
2.211
250
6.481
12.730
1.524

8.904
4.266
3.081
389
15.886
16.106
2.455

32.549 51.087
4

Methanol - Global Market Analysis

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

Methanol - Global Market Analysis

Methanol Demand

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

Methanol - Global Market Comments

The compounded rate of demand growth for Methanol
2009 - 2014E
2014E - 2019E
2019

10.7 percent
admirable 8.5 percent
Demand - 105 mio tons of Methanol,
China - Demand over 66 mio tons

Key Drivers
China - MTO and Gasoline blends today
MTG and power generation gaining interest
Supply Growth via Investments in Asia and the United States
Natural gas price volatility risk is a tangible element of such trade
that will have to be managed

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

STENA - Methanol Promotion

CHINA

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

Methanol - China
Chinese car sales quadrupled in 5 years Record exports of EU car producers
Chinas 12th five-year plan includes reduction of oil import dependency
M15 is incorporated
Coverage of high Gasoline demand has led to high usage of Methanol
Methanol production is linked to increased demand for gasoline
Concern among OEMs regarding engine operation
with increased Methanol levels
Methanol usage for blending is variable and largely unregulated

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

Methanol - CHINA
CHINA - Status of Methanol in Fuels - Specification Development
Specification Type
Region

M5

M15

M25

Nationwide

M85

M100

Other

Comments

Provinces

Shanxi

Shaanxi

Zhejiang

Hebei

Shandong
Guizhou
Shanghai
Heilongjing
Jiangsu
Sichuan
Gansu
Xinjiang
Fujian
Liaoning

09 May 2014

x
Draft - Not yet approved;
M15 Pilot-Project in Shaanxi;
M25 Pilot-Project in Xin,
Baoji,Hanzhong
M30, M50 M5 Pilot-Project in Quzhou
M5 and M15 Pilot-Project in
Tangshan
M30
M25 Pilot-Project in Weifang

x
x

M100 Pilot-Project

x
x

M45
M10
M30

Draft - not yet approved

Draft - not yet approved
M15 Methanol Diesel blending
Draft - not yet approved

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

10

STENA - Methanol Promotion

USA

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

11

Methanol - USA
Methanol resurgence
Lack of Natural gas infrastructure results in liquid Methanol production
Low-cost natural gas caused politics to support that benefit
Large-scale shale-gas extraction for Methanol to Fuel
Open Fuel Standard Act was introduced to direct automakers to have half
of all new cars by the 2017 model year capable of operating on
something other than gasoline,
including Ethanol and Methanol flexible fuel vehicles.
Domestic Fuel Standard should open the market to low-level Methanol fuel
blends
Energy self-sufficiency is target
US Gasoline demand can only be covered by imports
Methanol Institute: The Clear Alternative
The Case for Methanol Fuel Blending in the US - January 2014
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

12

Methanol - USA

US Methanol Production Capacity Planning - all in kMt

Timing
Company Location

OCI
LyondellBasell
Methanex
G2X Energy
Methanex
Celanese/Mitsui
OCI
Valero
Leucadia - Lake Charles Clean Energy
ZEEP - Zero Emission Energy Plants
SLM South Louisiana Methanol JV
G2X Energy
Northwest Innovation Works (BP,China)
Northwest Innovation Works (BP,China)
Northwest Innovation Works (BP,China)
Celanese

Beaumont TX
Channelview - TX
Geismar - LA
Pampa TX
Geismar - LA
Clear Lake - TX
Beaumont TX
St. Charles Refinery, Norco - LA
St. Charles - LA

2013
600
60

2014
700
740
100
20

2015
700
740
1.000
65
200

2016
700
740
1.000
65
1.000
1.300
1.750
1.600

2017
700
740
1.000
65
1.000
1.300
1.750
1.600
1.200

2018
700
740
1.000
65
1.000
1.300
1.750
1.600
1.200

St. James Parish - LA

1.650

1.650

1.650

Lake Charles
Columbia River Clatskanie, Oregon
Columbia River Kalama, Washington
Tacoma, Washington
Bishop

1.200
1.600
1.600
1.600
1.300

1.200

1.200
1.600
1.600
1.600
1.300

12.205

18.305

1000

1000

TOTAL
Leucadia Moss Point Methanol Moss Point - MS

09 May 2014

capacity
700
740
1.000
65
1.000
1.300
1.750
1.600
1.200

18.305

660

1000

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

1.560

2.705

8.155

13

Methanol - USA
US -Market GTL Projects known - Energy
Company
SoCalGas DME
Calumet GTL
East Oak Landfill GTL
Marcellus GTL
Nerd Gas Co. GTL
Pinto Energy GTL
Primus Green Energy STG+
Primus Green Energy STG+ Commercial
Sundrop Fuels
Sundrop/Chesapeake XTL
EmberClear Natchez GTL
LaPlace Methanol Facility
Pampa Fuels
Port of Kalama Methanol
Port Westward Methanol

Coal to Methanol
Consumer
Consumer

09 May 2014

Project
Methanol to dimethyl ether (DME)
Fischer-Tropsch GTL
Fischer-Tropsch GTL
Methanol to Gasoline
Fischer-Tropsch GTL
Fischer-Tropsch GTL
Syngas to Gasoline
Syngas to Gasoline
Methanol to Gasoline
Methanol to Gasoline
Methanol to Gasoline
Methanol
Methanol
Methanol
Methanol

Location
USA, California
USA, Pennsylvania
USA, Oklahoma
USA, Pennsylvania
USA, Wyoming
USA, Ohio
USA, Pennsylvania
USA
USA, Colorado
USA, Louisiana
USA, Mississippi
USA, Louisiana
USA, Texas
USA
USA, Oregon

Status
Announced
Announced
Announced
Announced
Announced
Post-FEED/Awaiting Construction
Operational
Announced
Post-FEED/Awaiting Construction
Post-FEED/Awaiting Construction
Announced
Post-FEED/Awaiting Construction
Announced
Announced
Announced

Paducah Kentucky
Methanol
Methanol

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

14

STENA - Methanol Promotion

EUROPE

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

15

Methanol - EUROPE
Heavy Lobbyism - Negative attitude from OEMs towards Methanol
Standard arguments: toxic, vapor pressure, strongly hydroscopic, strongly to the
formation of azeotrope, require a co-solvent, low energy content, aggressive
For the present car park the use of (bio)methanol, either as fuel or as blending component, is not
recommended by the car manufacturers (even though the FQD and EN 228 allow blending up to 3 %
(V/V) ). For high level blend methanol fuel, the following ASTM specification is available: ASTM D5797
Specification for fuel Methanol (M70-M85) for automotive spark-ignition engines - CEN-TC19 WG38
N1619 - 5 The need for a European automotive standard is not foreseen short/medium

term. Opposition to increasing Methanol content

EU - Legislation
RED mandates that at least 10% of transport fuels on an energy basis shall be derived
from sustainably produced, renewable sources by 2020 (RED, 2009/28/EC)
FQD requires fuel suppliers to reduce life-cycle GHG intensity associated with transport
fuels by at least 6 % by 2020, versus a 2010 baseline (FQD, 2009/30/EC)
EN 228 European Fuel Standard (with co-solvent) allows 3% (by volume) Methanol

EU Commission Proposal
Horizon 2020 - new funds for development of technologies for the disposal of CO2
emission via the Methanol path CCR against CCS, energy second generation
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

16

Methanol - EUROPE

Source: Concawe
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

17

Methanol - EUROPE

Source:
Concawe
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

18

STENA - Methanol Promotion

Three Regions - Three Different Markets and Setups
CHINA -

Methanol for Fuels in Place

2006 / 2013 ------ 1,5 - 13,0 mio tons
Different Business Mode less Talks but decisions

USA -

No Fuel Methanol yet - Shale Gas Revolution

Capitalism, Profit, Privacy can own Energy, Lobbyism

EU -

ZERO Methanol - Tri-Flex-Fuel Cars

Lobbyism, Tradition, Preconceived Opinion heavy to Modify

Drivers for Alternatives are Climate Issues, Supply Security +

Sulphur Reduction, higher Efficiency drives Octane Need
FUEL for SHIPPING is NEW for METHANOL
Europe - NEW Visible Developments for Methanol
Iceland CRI,
Sweden Stenaline,
Israel M15,
Germany CO2 , Denmark Economy,
NL - BioMCN
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

19

STENA - Methanol Promotion

Fuels
Natural Gas

MTBE
DME
Biodiesel
M-Mix Fuels
Sole Fuel

Diesel Alternative
Diesel Additive
LPG Substitute
Propellant

Syngas
Coal
METHANOL
Biomass

Chemicals

CO2 - Emission
Electrolysis H2
others

Formaldehyde
Acetic Acid
a long Product Chain
Silicons
incl. Products of
Animal Feed
Daily Life
Water Treatment
More.more
MTO
MTP
Fossil Fuels
Electricity

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

Polymers
Sulphur free
Fuel Production
Storage Option
20

STENA - Methanol Promotion

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

21

STENA - Methanol Promotion

Against Oil Methanol is a dwarf
65 mio tons Demand/Year equals almost 6 Days Oil
Recognition in Markets - Importance

Methanol is a Liquide Oil is a Liquide, Gasoline + Diesel are Liquids

Methanol is a Chemical - no Energy, only in China its both
Logistics are easy we could use exsisting supply structures REALLY????
Who Ownes Actual Logistics for Transport of Liquids
Patrol Stations, Pipelines, Tankers
Methanol offers significant properties to become Fuel it was already Fuel 1980 1990, now its ignored, however
Ethanol with similar advantages and disadvantages is Fuel
Political will was Key
The EU society subsidized in 2011 Biofuels with 10 billion Euros
even with growing awareness to do wrong

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

22

STENA - Methanol Promotion

Further Concerns critical Methanol Thoughts
Too green to be true
Methanol fits brilliant in the set-up
Too optimistic
Environmental Compatibility
too long waiting curve
Economics Operating Efficiency
Too less support - still
Too less communication
Too low broad awareness

Security of Supply
Innovation
DO WE KNOW THE CUSTOMER FOR
ALL THE SO WONDERFUL FACTS ?

Too much negativism poison, aggressive, less energy content

What is left to do?
More studies to be better prepared
Enhance communication inform the people
Analyse individual scepticism, secure the origin of it
Get awareness that CO2 is really the key climate danger
Convince established energy supply that only a
reliable competitor can guarentee them longer life
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

23

STENA - Methanol Promotion

Methanol success as FUEL is not a matter of pricing
EU BRENT Price History

There is NO alternative energy around

without support of tax

120

means - the society is willing

to pay more for energy

100

80
$ / bbl

however broadly the awareness grow

that payments go down the pan

2011 - ytd
fivefold

60

2008 - 2010
fourfold
2005 - 2007
threefold

35 years average
20 Dollar

40

20

0
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

24

STENA - Methanol Promotion

Average 273 Euro minus Discount

232 Euro

Average146 Euro
Currency adjusted

2010 to date
333 Euro minus Discount
283 Euro

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

25

STENA - Methanol Promotion

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

26

STENA - Methanol Promotion

METHANOL
Developing Clean Fuel - Energy Economy
M
e
t
h
a
n
o
l

09 May 2014

Clean Liquid Fuel/Mix

Multiple Sources
Logistics

Co-Existence with todays

Fuels
Societal Acceptance
Environment Safe

Efficient Energy Carrier

Reduced Fossil Use
Variable Fuel Systems

Target-aimed Investment

Global Availibility
Secured Supply
Domestic Production and Use

New Technology and

Processes

Integral
Way of a
Fuel - and
Energy Strategy

Harmonized Systems
Combustion Engine
Various Flexible Vehicles
New Propulsion Methods

Fuel Cell Electricity

Innovation

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

27

STENA - Methanol Promotion

Thank you for the invitation.
I bow deeply and with all respect for the courage and commitment of

Mr. Dan Olsson

on his way to make Methanol to energy.
Mercedes Benz could not introduce almost a dozen years ago,
the Methanol fuel cell.
Nowhere in the world, apart from China and Iceland, is Methanol fuel.
Now Sweden becomes the location of choice
for an epochal step across the energy world.
I wish this workshop all success and am proud to be an attendee.
Wolfgang Seuser
09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

28

Erscheinungstermin: 21. Februar 2014

ISBN-10: 3642397085
ISBN-13: 978-3642397080
Methanol - The Chemical and Energy Feedstock of the Future offers a visionary yet
unbiased view of methanol technology.
Based on the groundbreaking 1986 publication "Methanol" by Friedrich Asinger, this book
includes contributions
by more than 40 experts from industry and academia. The authors and editors provide a
comprehensive exposition of methanol chemistry and technology which is useful for
a wide variety of scientists working in chemistry and energy related industries as well as
academic researchers and even decision-makers and organisations concerned
with the future of chemical and energy feedstocks.

Methanol Institute:
The Clear Alternative
The Case for Methanol Fuel Blending in the US - January 2014

09 May 2014

STENA Workshop - Wolfgang Seuser

29