Curso de Geoestadistica en Ingles

MATH RECALL / NOTATION
PROGRAMS / FACT SHEETS

Content
Double Bend Sign
- For your information only
- Not to be remembered!
Math Recall P
- Sum sign
- Integral Area
- Derivative Slope
- Minima / Maxima
Notation
- Statistics
- Geostatistics
Fact Sheets
MATH RECALL - Conventions

Computation order
- Priority 1: power
- Priority 2: multiplication, division
- Priority 3: addition, subtraction
- Left to right
- Parenthesis have priority, inside before outside
- Examples:
- 1 + 2 3 = 1 + (2 3) = 1 + 6 = 7
- 1 4/2 = 4/2 = 2
- (1 + 2) 3 = 3 3 = 9
- 1 + (2 3) = 1 + 6 = 7
- ((1 + 3) + (2 3)) = (4 + 6) = 10
P
Summation sign:
4
X
ai = a1 + a2 + a3 + a4
i=1
Product sign:
4
Y
ai = a1 a2 a3 a4
i=1
Factorial: n!
4! = 4 3 2 1
MATH RECALL - Conventions
MATH RECALL: Exercise 1
More about
Let 3 Au values: z1 = 1, z2 = 2, z3 = 3 g/t

i
Compute:
i = 1 + 2
i=1
z1 + z2 + z3
j
3
j = 1 + 2 + 3
(z1 + z2 ) z3
z1 + z2 z3
P3
i=1 zi
P3
i=1 2 zi
P
3
1
2
i=1 (zi 2)
2
j=1
2 3
ij = 11 + 12 + 13 +
i=1 j=1
21 + 22 + 23
1,1 1,2 1,3
2,1 2,2 2,3

f.150
2 3
ijij =
1111 + 1212 + 1313 +
2121 + 2222 + 2323
i=1 j=1
Firmado digitalmente por

Chichofaim
Nombre de reconocimiento
(DN): cn=Chichofaim, o, ou,
email=chichofaim@hotmail.co
m, c=PE
Motivo: Certifico la precisin e
integridad de este documento
Ubicacin: Hyo-Peru
Fecha: 2010.04.09 09:42:53
-05'00'
CALCULUS - Definitions
CALCULUS - Functions
Variable: x
- An expression, the value of which is unknown or
subject to change.
Parabola: y = x2 ,
2 x 2
y = f(x)
Domain of definition of x
- Set of values that can be taken by x.
- [a, b], i.e. a x b,
]a, b], i.e. a < x b
- [a, b[, i.e. a x < b,
]a, b[, i.e. a < x < b
where a & b are two constants.
4
3
2
1
Function
- An ordered set of pairs (x, y) such that for each x,
there is one and only one y. Usual notation is:
3 2
f. 66
Normal Distribution: f(x) =

x +
y = f(x)
- Defined by:
- domain of definition of x
- the condition that must be satisfied by x & y
1
exp
22
x
h
(x)2
22
i
,
f(x)
: Mean
2: Variance
f. 1a
CALCULUS - Integral
CALCULUS - Integral
Definition
The integral of the function f(x) on the interval [a,b] is
the limit of the sum
Graphical representation
y = f(x)
a
dx
x1

a dx
b
y = f(x)
Notation
x
y
dx
f(x)dx =
y = f(x)
lim
dx0,n
n
X
f(xi + dx) + f(xi )
f. 68aa
b
b
a f(x)dx
i=1 f(x +dx)2+ f(x ) dx

i
i=1
y
x1 x2 x3
dx
when lim dx 0. Note that n + in [a, b].
i=1 f(x +dx)2+ f(x ) dx

i
i=1
x1 x2
dx > 0

adx

n
X
f(xi + dx) + f(xi )
dx >> 0
f(x1+dx) + f(x1) dx
2
y = f(x)
dx >>> 0
y = f(x)

a f(x)dx
f. 68
dx
CALCULUS - Derivative
MINIMA / MAXIMA: 1 variable
Definition
The derivative y0 = f 0 (x) is, when it exists, the limit
of the quotient of the increment of the variables x & y,
when the increment of x tends towards 0.
y = f(x)
f(x1)=0
f(x)
f(x2)=0
dy
f(x + dx) f(x)
= lim
dx0 dx
dx0
dx
f 0 (x) = lim
x1
The function f(x) is derivable at x = x0 if f 0 (x0 ) exists.
x2
Example: y = x2
f(x) = lim
2
2
= lim (x+dx) x
dx
dx > 0
y = f(x)
4
2
2
2
= lim x + 2xdx + (dx) x
dx
dx > 0
y = f(x)
f(x0)
f(x0)
f(x0+dx)
dx >> 0
y = f(x)
= lim (2x + dx)
f.123
dx > 0
dx > 0
3 2
x0
x0+dx
x0
x0+dx
f. 67
f(x+dx) f(x)
dx
dx > 0
y = f(x)
y = f(x)
f(x0+dx)
= 2x + 0 = 0
f(0)=0
f(x) = 2x = 0 iff x = 0
f (x) = tg(), i.e. slope of tangent at x0 .

Slope of tangent = 0 = Minima or Maxima (local or
global).
10
MINIMA / MAXIMA: Several variables

z=f(x,y)

f(x,y)=x2 + y2

f(x,b)
f(a,y)
0
a
dz f (x,b) = 0
dx x
x=a
dz f (a,y) = 0
dy y
y=b
MINIMA / MAXIMA: Under Constraint

f(x,y) = x2 + y2
such that:
g(x, y) = x 1 = 0
f.125
x
x
(a,b,0)
Example:
Constrained Minimum
Free Minimum
f(x+dx, y) f(x, y)
dx
dx>0
fx(x, y) = lim
f(x,y)=x2 + y2
(x+dx)2+y2 (x2+y2)
= lim
dx
dx>0
x2 + 2xdx + dx2 x2
= lim
dx
dx>0
= lim (2x + dx)
dx>0
x
x=0
y=0

Min f(x, y) = x2 + y2
df(x, y)
dx
= 2x = 0
df(x, y)
dy
Min h(x, y, ) = f(x, y) g(x, y)

= x2 + y2 + x
= 2y = 0
(x, y) = (0, 0)
fy(x,y) = 2y = 0 iff y = 0
11
dh(x, y, )
dx
= 2x = 0
dh(x, y, )
dy
= 2y = 0
dh(x, y, )
d
= x1 = 0
(x, y, ) = (1, 1, 2)
fx(x,y) = 2x = 0 iff x = 0
f.124
Min f(x, y) = x2 + y2
s.t.: g(x, y) = x 1 = 0
12
CALCULUS: Summary
FACT SHEET
Integral = area
Derivative = slope
Integrals and derivatives are linear operators.
Minimum/Maximum when derivative is zero.
Variable: x
Function: y = f(x)
Integral:
Z
f(x)dx =
a
lim
dx0,n
n
X
f(xi + dx) + f(xi )
i=1
dx
Derivative:
f 0 (x) = lim
dx0
dy
f(x + dx) f(x)
= lim
dx dx0
dx
y = f(x)
f(x1) = 0
f(x0) = tg
x0

b
f(x)dx

a

y = f(x)
f.68b
x1
Minimum/Maximum if derivative is zero.

13
15
14
16
NOTATION (1)
Summation sign:
4
X
P
ai = a1 + a2 + a3 + a4
i=1
Random Variable (RV)

- X, Y : random variables
- Z(x): random variable Z at location x
- x, y, z(x): realizations of X, Y , Z(x)
- P , P rob: probability
Random Function
- Z(x): random function
- Z(x), x D: set of RV Z(x), x within the
deposit D (or geological domain)
Descriptive Statistics:
- Roman letters
- m, mX , x: mean, average
- s2 , s2X : variance
- cvX : coefficient of variation
- xi : ith quantile; x50 : median
- Cov(X, Y ): covariance
- Cor(X, Y ): correlation coefficient
17
NOTATION (2)
Model Parameters:
- Greek letters
- , X , E(X): mean, average, expectation
2
- 2 , X
, V ar(X): variance
- X,Y : covariance
- X,Y : correlation coefficient
Distributions
- pdf: probability density function (probability
distribution)
- cdf: cumulative density function
- fX , fXY : univariate, bivariate pdfs
- FX , FXY : univariate, bivariate cdfs
2
- X N (X , X
): normal distribution, mean X ,
2
variance X
Variogram
- (h): variogram for distance h
- (V, V ): average variogram value within block V
- (V, i) = (i, V ): average variogram value
between sample i and block V
Block variance:
- V ar(ZV ), D2 (V |), (V = Volume)
- V ar(ZB ), D2 (B|), (B = Block)
18
NOTATION (3)
Miscellaneous:
- Greek letters
- , , , , , ,
- AFC : affine correction
- ILC : indirect lognormal correction
- IK : indicator kriging
- OK : ordinary kriging
- QQ: quantile/quantile plot
- RV : random variable
- RF : random function
- SMU : selective mining unit
-
AVE, Ave: average

VAR, Var : variance
RLVAR, RlVar : relative variance
STDV, StDv: standard deviation
RLSTDV, RlStDv: relative standard deviation
CV : coefficient of variation
- RLP: relative pairwise (variogram)
19
20
FACT SHEET (1)
FACT SHEET (2)
Recall Calculus
Univariate Statistics (Model)
Integral = area
Derivative = slope
Minimum/Maximum when derivative is zero.
Univariate Statistics (Description)

mX = (1/N )
s2X = (1/N )
xi
E[aX + bY + c] = aE[X] + bE[Y ] + c

V ar[aX + b] = a2 V ar[X]
Bivariate Statistics (Description)
sX,Y =
P
P
(xi mX )2 = (1/N ) x2i m2X
1
N
[xi mX ][yi mY ] =
1
N
[xi yi ] mX mY
V ar(aX + bY + c) = a2 V ar(X) + b2 V ar(Y )

+2abCov(X, Y )
m(aX+bY +c) = a mX + b mY + c
Bivariate Statistics (Model)
s2aX+b = a2 s2X

Cov[X, Y ] = X,Y = E (X X )(Y Y )
= E(XY ) X Y
E(X) = X
2
V ar(X) = X
= E(X X )2 = E(X 2 ) 2X
21
22
FACT SHEET (3)
FACT SHEET (4)
Variogram, Covariance Function
Ordinary Kriging
(h) = (1/2Nh )
[z(xi ) z(xi + h)]2
2
(h) = (1/2)E[ Z(x) Z(x + h) ]
C(h) = E[(Z(x)Z(x + h)] Z(x) Z(x+h)
(h) = C(0) C(h)
2
OK
=
PN
i=1
i (V, i) + (V, V )
Indicator Kriging
No new formulas
Cross-Validation/Reconciliation
Block Variance
No new formulas

V ar ZV (x) = V ar Z(x) (V, V )
Estimation Variance
PN
V ar(Er ) = 2 i=1 i (V, i)
PN PN
i=1 j=1 i j ij (V, V )
23
24
UNIVARIATE STATISTICS
Content
BASIC STATISTICS: Random Variable

Cast of a die:
Concepts, notation:
- Random variable, random function
- Probability
- Stationarity
P (X = i) = 1/6,
i = 1, . . . , 6,
- X is the random variable (RV) value shown on

the face after casting the die.
Univariate description:
- Maps: values, contours,...
- Graphs: histogram, boxplot,...
- Statistics: mean, variance,...
Random variable (RV):

- Value cannot be predicted, but
- Possible results are outcomes or realizations
- Outcomes occur according to probability law
Univariate model:
- Probability distribution
- Parameters: mean (expectation), variance,...
- Distributions: normal, lognormal,...
Many geological attributes, CU grade, lithotype, etc.,

have random characteristics:
- Are not known, unless sampled
- Possible values are generally known
- Some values are more frequent than others
Applications:
- EDA envelope
- Geology model
- Declustering
- Compositing
Attributes can be interpreted as realizations RVs:

- Discrete: lithotype, ...
- Continuous: Au, Cu, density ...
Will try to infer relevant characteristics of these RVs.
BASIC STATISTICS: Probability

Cast of a die:
- X: RV result from casting a die
- The observed relative frequency of getting 2 is:
Number of 2s obtained
p (2) =
Number of casts
- p (2) tends towards the probability of having 2

when the No. of casts is large (infinite):
p (2) = P rob(X = 2), if No. of casts is infinite
Probability of an event: its relative frequency when the
No. of trials is large.
Properties:
- 0 probability 1
- Sum of probabilities of all disjoint outcomes is 1
Cast of a die, X:
P (X = i) = 1/6,
i = 1, . . . , 6
P (X = 1) + + P (X = 6) = 1
Z: CU value at a given location (%):
P (Z = 4.4673829) = 0,

0 P Z [0.1, 1.5] 1
P Z 100) = 1
3
BASIC STATISTICS: Notation

z(x) is grade at location x and is interpreted as a
realization of a random variable (RV) Z(x).
Attention!
- x is a location here
- Sometimes use X for a random variable
- X(x) is RV X located in x ...
UPPER CASE: Random Variables (RV) Z(x)
lower case:
Realizations z(x)
Random Variables
- Point grades at locations:
x : Z(x) x0 : Z(x0 ), or Z0
xi : Z(xi ), or Zi
- Block/Volume grades at location x:

ZB (x), or ZV (x)
BASIC STATISTICS: Stationarity

Roughly means that the characteristics of the RV Z(x)
do not depend on the location x.
Concept intuitively used by geologists when:
- Defining geological domains
- Computing statistics
Important:
- Split the deposit within geological domains that
have different mineralization characteristics.
- Do not mix apples and oranges.
Geology first!
Mineralization within a geology domain is usually considered +/- stationary, i.e. with similar characteristics.
Realizations
- z(x), z(x0 ), z0 , z(xi ), zi , zB (x), zV (x)
Important:
- Do not mix different supports:
- e.g. sample & block grades
- They have different statistical characteristics.
- Do not mix apples and oranges.
5
UNIVARIATE DESCRIPTION: Maps

List of values and coordinates
East
134.2
628.2
330.5
333.8
...
North
253.2
431.7
320.3
382.8
...
Au (g/t)
8.5
3.2
6.2
8.1
...
UNIVARIATE DESCRIPTION: Histogram

A graph showing the (relative) frequencies of occurrence
of values within classes of equal amplitudes
Histogram of Au grades
Freq
(%)
30
Maps
P(2. < Au < 4.)

20
Symbols
Locations & Values

3.2
10
3.9
f. 3a
8.0
1.2
7.5 8.1
13
6.2
8.5
12
16 Au (g/t)
0.8
1.5
f. 175
Contours
Colour Scale
3.2
3.2
3.9
3.9
8.0
8.5
8.0
1.2
1.2
7.5 8.1
13
6.2
8.1 7.5
13
6.2
8.5
0.8
Remarks:
- Class interval: 2.0 g/t
- Class interval includes the upper bound, but not
the lower bound
- 20% of Au values are in the ]2.0, 4.0]% class
- Total area defined by classes is 100% or 1.
- Different scales are sometimes needed to observe
low and high values.
0.8
1.5
1.5
10
UNIVARIATE DESCRIPTION: Examples
UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Cumulative Histogram
0.300
A graph showing the (relative) cumulative frequencies

of occurrence of values below a cutoff
HISTOGRAM - Arithmetic Scale

Number of Data 99688
Number trimmed 2295
mean 2.170
std. dev 4.949
coef. of var 2.281
Cum. freq.
(%)
maximum 330.000
minimum 0.100
Frequency
0.200
Cumulative histogram
of AU grades
100
0.100
75
50
0.000
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
0.200
25
22%
0
HISTOGRAM - Logarithmic Scale

Number trimmed 2295
f. 4a
12
16 Au (g/t)
mean 2.170
std. dev 4.949
coef. of var 2.281
0.150
Frequency
Histogram
20.0
BH Au (g/t)
maximum 330.000
minimum 0.100
Remarks
- 22% of AU values are 4 g/t, or
- P rop(AU 4) = 0.22,
- Cumulative frequency of last class is 100% or 1
0.100
0.050
f. 62
0.000
.1
1.
10.
100.
BH Au (g/t)
11
12
UNIV. DESC.: Location vs. Dispersion Statistics
UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Location Statistics

Let N
grade values:

- z(xi ), i = 1, . . . , N ,
xi s stand for the
geographical coordinates.
Freq
(%)
30
Dispersion
Location statistics:
- Mean:
20
mZ =
10
z(x1 ) + z(x2 ) + ... + z(xN )

N
f. 3f
mZ =
8 12
16 Au (g/t)
N
1 X
z(xi )
N i=1
- Mode: most likely value
Location
- Quantile or percentile:
Location Statistics
- Value around which grades are distributed
- Ex.: mean grade

zq , such that P rop z(xi ) zq = q%
- Median: z50 , or 50th percentile
Dispersion (Spread) Statistics

- Statistics that indicates the spread of values
- Ex.: variance
13
14
UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Dispersion Statistics
UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Statistics
Dispersion statistics:
- Variance:
s2Z =
N
1 X
z(xi ) mZ ]2 0
N
i=1
- Standard deviation:
q
sZ = + s2Z .
- Coefficient of variation:
freq
(%)
30
20
10
coef. var. = sZ /mZ .
- Interquartile range:
z75 z25

25%

Variance

25%

N
1 X

zi2 m2Z
N
i=1
s2Z = Mean of Squares - Square of Mean

15
12
Au75
Au25
Mode Mean
An easy way to compute the variance (Exercise 2):

s2Z =
Interquartile Range
Au75 Au25
16

f. 3e
16 Au (g/t)
UNIV. DESCRIPTION
Coefficient of Variation
UNIV. DESC.: Weighted Mean and Variance

Let N (Grade, Weight) values:

PN
- zi , wi , i = 1, . . . , N ,
i=1 wi = 1
What is it?
- Another measure of spread
Standard Deviation
Coef.Var. =
Mean
Weighted mean
mZ =
wi zi
i=1
Why?
- Unit-less
Weighted variance
Example (Unit = oz/t)

- Mean grade = 1 oz/t 30 g/t
- Variance = 1.00 (oz/t)2
- Coef.Var. = 1.00
Unit
oz/t
dwt
mopt
g/t
N
X
Grade
1.00
20.0
1000.
30.0.
Variance
1.00
400.
106
900.
s2Z =
N h
X
i=1
Coef.Var.
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
N
i X

wi (zi mZ )2 =
wi zi2 m2Z
i=1
= Example: Declustered mean and variance (to be

seen later)
Rule of thumb
- Coef.Var. < 1.5 = No problems
- Coef.Var. > 3.0 = Problems
17
18
UNIV. DESC.: Declustered Histogram
UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Various Means

Some software list several means when computing
statistics.
AU Naive Histogram
Nb. of data
mean
std. dev.
coef. var
maximum
minimum
Frequency
0.120
4296
2.059
2.179
1.058
16.000
0.000
Arithmetic mean:
0.080
maZ =
0.040
N
1 X
z(xi )
N i=1
Geometric mean:
0.000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Au (g/t)
mgZ
AU Declustered Histogram
Nb. of data
mean
std. dev.
coef. var
maximum
minimum
Frequency
0.120
v
uN
uY
N
= t z(xi )
i=1
4296
1.763
1.984
1.125
16.000
0.000
Harmonic mean:
0.080
mhZ =
0.040
1
N
1 X 1
N i=1 z(xi )
Relation:
0.000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
mhZ mgZ maZ
Au (g/t)
Note 14% drop in grade due to declustering.

19
20
UNIVARIATE DESCRIPTION: Exercise 3

Let 11 Au values
UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Properties of m

Demonstration given in Exercise 4
.1
.2
.7
.8
.9
1.2
2.0
2.4
3.5
5.7
18.0
Draw the histogram, choosing a class interval so that

the shape of the distribution is reproduced.
Compute the:
- mean, median;
- variance, standard deviation;
- coefficient of variation.
Comment you results.
HINTS for variance:
- Variance = Mean of Squares - Square of Mean, e.g:
P

N
2
2
s2Z = N1
i=1 zi mZ
Let two RVs X and Y , sampled at N locations.

We know:
- The means: mX and mY
- Three constants: a, b, c
Properties of the mean:
- m(X+Y ) = mX + mY
- m(aX) = a mX
- m(X+a) = mX + a
More generally
- m(aX+bY +c) = a mX + b mY + c
= The mean (average) is a linear operator.
- Compute the means of zi and zi2

- Then compute the variance
21
22
UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Properties of s2

Demonstration given in Exercise 4
We know:
- The means: mX and mY
- The variances: s2X and s2Y
- Two constants: a, b
Properties of the variance:
- s2(X+Y ) =? (see bivariate statistics)
- s2(aX) = a2 s2X
- s2(X+a) = s2X
More generally
- s2(aX+b) = a2 s2X
The variance is not a linear operator.
23
24
UNIV. DESC.: Boxplot
UNIV. DESC.: Boxplots
A graph summarizing a distribution essential statistics
AU BOXPLOTS
Boxplot of AU grades
DOM-03
1000.0
DOM-04
DOM-05
DOM-06
DOM-07
1000.0
Au (g/t)
16
Maximum
100.0
100.0
10.0
10.0
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.1
Outliers
12
Upper Quartile
Mean
Median
f. 63
Lower Quartile
f. 61
Minimum
Multiple boxplots can be displayed on the same page

Great display!
Number of data
Mean
Std. Dev.
Coef. of Var.
Maximum
Upper quartile
Median
Lower quartile
Minimum
13793
6.1199
36.3533
5.9402
972.0
4.5
1.2
0.2
0.01
20902
0.7509
3.7238
4.9593
398.0
0.5
0.11
0.1
0.01
28050
1.2245
6.3134
5.1559
370.0
0.9
0.23
0.1
0.01
4859
4.7667
21.9575
4.6065
680.0
2.9
1.0
0.3
0.01
19117
10.6783
45.2865
4.241
1000.0
6.9
2.25
0.5
0.01
25
26
UNIV. DESC.: Piecharts
UNIV. DESC.: Orientation Plot
Number of data
Mean
Std. Dev.
Coef. of Var.
Maximum
Upper quartile
Median
Lower quartile
Minimum
AU PIECHARTS
Orientations of Consecutive Pairs in Same Hole
By number of samples
By sample weight
(Total = 86721 samples)

DOM-04
24%
16%
DOM-03
2%
7%
6%
56%
22%
DOM-05
DOM-07
100 to 1,000 pairs
DOM-05
DOM-04
1,000 to 10,000 pairs

> 10,000 pairs
29%
6%
< 10 pairs
10 to 100 pairs
DOM-04
32%
DOM-05
By sample weight x grade
21%
DOM-03
DOM-06
DOM-07
DOM-06
18%
6%
350
17%
10
340
DOM-03
20
330
f. 64
30
320
38%
40
310
50
DOM-07
DOM-06
300
60
290
70
Useful to show geological domain relative importances.

280
80
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
260
100
250
110
240
120
230
130
220
140
210
150
200
160
190
170
fig192
27
28
UNIV. DESC.: Standardized Variable

Standardized random variables are often used in statistics. For example:
- Affine correction (e.g. sample to block grade distribution).
Standardizing consists in subtracting the mean from the
variable, and then dividing by the standard deviation.
Standardizing
X mX
sX
UNIV. DESC.: Standardized Variable

Example
Let 2 AU values (X): 1 g/t, 9 g/t
The mean, variance, and std. deviation are:
mX = 5
s2X =
2
X
i=1

x2i m2X = (1 + 81)/2 25 = 16
sX = 4
1
ORIGINAL
DISTRIBUTION
X mX
The standardized values (Y) are:
2
0.0
(1 5)/4 = 1,
(9 5)/4 = 1
X mX
X
STANDARDIZED
DISTRIBUTION
1.0
f.176
0.0
Mean and variance of a standardized random variable

(Exercise 5) :
- Mean: 0
- Variance: 1
29
The standardized variable mean, variance, and

std. dev. are:
mY = 0
s2Y =
i=1
z(x), grade at location x, is interpreted as a realization

of the RV Z(x).
Stationarity roughly means that characteristics of RV
Z(x) do not depend on location x.
Univariate Description:
- histogram, boxplot, piechart;
- mean, variance, standard deviation;
- coefficient of variation;
- quantiles, median.

yi2 m2Y = (1 + 1)/2 0 = 1
sY = 1
30
FACT SHEET
UNIVARIATE STATISTICS: Summary 1/3

Random Variable (RV) Z; Realization z.
2
X
Univariate Statistics (Description)

mX = (1/N )
s2X = (1/N )
xi
P
P
(xi mX )2 = (1/N ) x2i m2X
m(aX+bY +c) = a mX + b mY + c
s2aX+b = a2 s2X
Properties
- Mean
- m(aX+bY +c) = amX + bmY + c
- Variance:
- Mean of Squares Square of Mean
- s2(aX+b) = a2 s2X
31
32
UNIVARIATE MODEL: Introduction

Models are needed to go beyond description. For
example:
- To build estimators (prediction)
- To simplify problems (e.g. using normal/lognormal
distribution)
- To solve problems (e.g. conditions needed to
build unbiased estimator)
Examples of models:
- Assumption that grade at location x is a realization random variable at that location
- z(x) is realization of RV Z(x)
- Assumption of stationarity
UNIV. MODEL: Probability Density Function (PDF)

Description: histogram
Histogram of Au grades
Freq
(%)
30
10
0
P(2. < Au < 4.)

20
f. 3b
12
16 Au (g/t)
P (2 < AU 4) = 20%
Model: probability density function (pdf)
- Recall: integral
fZ(z)
Probability density function

of Z (Au)

.3
.2
.1
0
0

2

P(2<Z<4) = .2
f. 5a
16
P (2 < Z 4) = 0.2 =
Total area under fZ (z) is 1.

34
33
UNIV. MODEL: Cumulative pdf (CDF)

Description: cumulative histogram
Cum. freq.
(%)
Cumulative histogram
of AU grades
100
75
50
25
22%
0
f. 4b
12
16 Au (g/t)
P (AU 4) = 22%
Model: cumulative density function (cdf)
Cum. prob. density
function of Z (Au)
FZ(z)
1
.75
P(Z<4)=FZ(4)=.22
.5
.25
.22
0
f. 6a
16
P (Z 4) = 0.22
Maximum value is 1.
35
36
fZ (z)dz
UNIV. MODEL: Parameters
UNIV. MODEL: Parameters
Let Z(x) a RV. Histogram has Nc classes.

f(z) is the pdf of Z(x).
- Recall: weighted mean and variance
Description
frq
f(z)
z1 , z2 , z3 ,...
Mean:
Quantile:
zq
X

P zi zq = q
fi
zf(z)dz
zq
37
Std. Dev.:
UNIV. MODEL: Properties of and 2

Properties of and 2
- Are similar to properties of m and s2 .
- Demonstration is given in Exercise 6.
Let 2 RVs, X and Y , and 3 constants, a, b, and c.
Properties of the mean:
- (aX+bY +c) = a X + b Y + c
= The mean is a linear operator
sZ
q
sZ = s2Z
Coef. Var.:
Z =
2
Z
cvZ
cvZ
sZ /mZ
Z /Z
Remarks
- Greek instead of Roman letters are used for model
parameters: e.g. and instead of m and s.
38
UNIV. MODEL: Notation
Mean: () E()
- E() stands for Expectation
- Ex.: (X+Y ) = E(X + Y )
2
Variance: ()
V AR()
2
- Ex.: (aX)
= V AR(aX)
Standard Deviation: () ST DV ()
Properties of the variance:

2
2
- (aX+b)
= a2 X
2
- (X+Y
) =?
39
(z Z )2 f(z)dz
i=1
f. 165
f(z)dz = q
2
Z
2
Z
=
pdf
s2Z
fi (zi mZ )2
zq
Z
i,zi zq
Nc
X
i=1
f(z)
fi=1
z1 , z2 , z3 ,...
z
Z =
Histogram
f1 , f2 ,...
f. 165
mZ
Nc
X
mZ =
fi zi
Model
pdf
fi=1
f1 , f2 ,...
s2Z =
frq
Model
Histogram
Variance:
Description
40
UNIV. MODEL: Expectations - Moments

Suppose:
- RV Z with density f;
- A function g(Z).
Then:
E[g(Z)] =
UNIV. MODEL: Skewness - Kurtosis

3
Skewness: E(Z- mZ)
3
sZ
=0
+
Symmetry
g(z)f(z)dz
<0
where E[] stands for Expectation.

Examples:
mZ
g(Z)
E[g(Z)]
1
Z
(Z Z )2
(Z Z )3
(Z Z )4
(Z Z )3 / 3
(Z Z )4 / 4
1
Z (Moment of order 1)
2
Z
(Moment of order 2)
Moment of order 3
Moment of order 4
Skewness
Kurtosis (peakedness)
Some software list the skewness and kurtosis when

computing statistics.
z 50
Mode
>0
Mode
Kurtosis:
E(Z- mZ )4
z 50 m Z
<3
= 3 (Normal)
>3
s 4Z
s Z2 Same for all
41
42
43
44
UNIV. MODEL: Normal Distribution

2
Let a RV X with mean X and variance X
X is normally distributed if its pdf gX (x) is:

gX (x) = p
"
1
(x X )2
.
exp
2
2
2X
2X
UNIV. MODEL: Normal Distribution

Important probabilities:
P (X X X X + X ) = 68%
P (X 2X X X + 2X ) = 95%
gX(x)
gX(x)
2
X
X : Mean
X2: Variance
f. 2
34%
13.5%
f. 1
X-2X X-X
x
34%
13.5%
X X+2X X+X
68%
95%
= Used for estimation confidence intervals.

Cf. Section Estimation Variance.
The notation is:

2
X N (X , X
),
A normal distribution is fully defined by its mean, X ,

2
and variance, X
45
46
U. MODEL: Normal Cumulative Distribution

2
X N (X , X
)
The cdf of X, GX (x) is such that:

GX (b) = P (X b)
1.
GX(x)
f. 31
.5
P(X< b) = GX(b)
0
b x
To get GX (b) from b or vice versa, use:

- A table of normal probabilities;
- An approximation;
- A software (Excel).
47
48
UNIV. MODEL: Lognormal Distribution
UNIV. MODEL: Probability Plots
If X is lognormally distributed, then ln(X) is normally

distributed
PROBABILITY PLOT - DISTRIBUTION IS NOT NORMAL

100
90
ln(x) ~ Normal
X ~ Lognormal
80
gln(X)(ln(x))
70
Grade
fX(x)
60
50
40
f 42a
x50
X~
ln(x)
= ln(x)50
LN(,2)
30
20
ln(X) ~ N(,2)
10
0
99.99
X lognormal distribution parameters:
95
90
80
70 60 50 40 30
2
= ln()
2
2
2 = ln(1 + 2 )
= = ln(x50 ) 6= ln()
Grade
20
10
5
4
3
1
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
99.99
99.9 99.8
99 98
95
90
80
70 60 50 40 30
Occurs for discrete variable randomly distributed within

volume. Ex: No of AU grains within a 50g pulp sample.
Prob (X=k)
k
= 0.75
4
=3
=1
=5
f. 142
=7
=6
Parameters ( = mean = variance)):

P rob(x = k) =
= Sample size matters!
51
20
Probability of exceeding grade
UNIV. MODEL: Poisson Distribution
=4
0.01
50
40
30
50
=2
0.5 0.2 0.1
49
0 1 2 3
100
Y = ln(X) normal distribution parameters:
= 0.5
200
x50 = e
(Salamd, Ingamells, 1974)
LOG PROBABILITY PLOT - DISTRIBUTION IS APPROX. LOGNORMAL
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
10
500
400
300
Poisson
Distributions
20
1000
2 = 2 (e 1)
y50
99 98
Probability of exceeding grade
2
2
= e+
99.9 99.8
e k
k!
52
10
f. 65
0.5 0.2 0.1
0.01
FACT SHEET
UNIV. STATISTICS: Summary 2/3
Random Variable (X)

Probability: P (X < a)
E(X) = X
Probability distribution function (pdf), cdf

- Expectation or mean: E(X) = X
2
- Variance: X
- Quantiles: x25 , x50, x75
- Coef. variation: X /X
- Skewness, kurtosis
2
V ar(X) = X
= E(X X )2 = E(X 2 ) 2X
E[aX + bY + c] = aE[X] + bE[Y ] + c

V ar[aX + b] = a2 V ar[X]
Normal distribution
- Bell shape
- Fully defined by its mean and variance
2
- Notation: X N (X , X
)
- P (X X < X < X + X ) = 68%
- Straight line on probability paper
Lognormal distribution
- Straight line on log-probability paper
Poisson distribution
53
54
55
56
200
22400
lascris_012
22200
22000
21800
21600
Data familiarization
Detecting possible errors
Identifying/confirming different mineralizations
Answering questions such as:
- Ordinary or indicator kriging ?
- What trimming values ?
- Mean and variance ?
Providing information for:
- Model validation
- Reconciliation
59
DDH
Wst
0.0
21400
-100
EDA
Purpose
60
-200
58
-300
57
-400
GEOLOGY + DDH SAMPLES
-300
22000
22200
PARADISE INC.
-200
SECTION: 9200 N
Deposit: Paradise
Au
0.5
2.0
Dyke
4 g/t
Crb Stbl Brk
Crb Lch Brk
Saprock
Sul. Saprolite
Ox. Saprolite
22400
-100
21400
Useful statistics to check differences between domains:

- Multiple boxplots, histograms
- Multiple cumulative distribution
- Contact plots
- Variograms (different directions)
21800
Statistics to be computed per geology domain and

within the EDA envelope.
100
21600
Boundaries between geological domains can be hard,

soft, or in-between.
200
100
A geology model consists of several geology domains.

Each domain has its own statistical characteristics that
do not depend on location (homogeneity stationarity).
The geology model should tell something about the mineralization, the structures, etc.
-400
A good geology model is most important.
Overburden
Geology Model
EDA Envelope (1/4)
EDA Envelope (2/4)
An EDA envelope is a 3D envelope within which statistics are computed.

Which statistics?
- Declustered mean, variance.
- Choice of trimming values.
- Choice of indicator cut-off grades.
- Variogram.
- Resource block model validation.
EDA Envelope
Why an EDA envelope?

- To restrict statistics to where it matters.
- Fairly tight around sample locations
- No extensive waste areas
- Well covered with samples
- To reduce the impact of fringes when
declustering and computing statistics.
- To make sure that comparisons made during
validation (e.g. sample vs. kriged average
grades) correspond to the same material (i.e.
material within the EDA envelope for both samples
and kriged estimates).
f.185
How to define and EDA envelope?

- Dont be too precise.
- Fairly tight around reasonably well sampled zone.
- Around material that matters. Significant waste
zone well below cut-off can be ignored.
- Digitize on a series of benches, then wireframe and
create a 0/1 indicator grid.
- Generally, geology can be ignored when defining
the EDA envelope.
62
EDA Envelope (3/4)
EDA Envelope (4/4)
809000
432000
432200
432400
432600
432800
431600
431800
10m cmp AU (g/t)
432000
432200
432400
432600
432800
808800
431800
808800
809000
Project Area
61
Paradise - 10m Composite Au values

RL = 302.5 +/- 2.5 -- 5 ft Bench Toe = 300
431600
Very low grades

"Other" grades
808600
808600
Some remarks:
- The EDA envelope is used to compute statistics.
- All data within and outside the envelope can be
used at the estimation step.
- There can be estimates outside the EDA envelope.
- A geology model has to be considered in addition
to the envelope.
808400
808400
808200
808200
808000
808000
807800
807800
pdi-10
0.2
1.0
2.0
EDA Envelope
63
64
DECLUSTERING: Introduction
Clusters of samples are common in the mining industry.
CLUSTERS
DECLUSTERING: Methods
Cell Declustering
- Superimpose a grid of cells on the data;
- Cell size roughly the average sample spacing, ignoring clusters. There is on average 1 data per cell,
where clustered. The cell can be rectangular.
- The declustered weight of a given sample is 1/Nc
where Nc is the number of samples located in the
corresponding cell.
1 per cell ==> w=1.0 per sample
f.116
Potential problem:
- Clusters are often located within high grade zones.
Their impact can be a serious overestimation of
the average grade and variability if not accounted
for.
Solution:
- Declustering.
- Objective is to reduce the weight of each clustered data +/ proportionally to the cluster sampling density.
2
1
f.184b
2 per cell ==> w=0.50 per sample
Average
Naive: 1 + 2 + 8 + 6 + 1 + 2 = 3.33 g/t Au
6
1+2+
Declustered:
8+6+1+2
2
= 2.60 g/t Au
5
65
66
Polygonal declustering
- In 2D, the declustered weights are proportional to
the polygons of influence of the corresponding data.
- In 3D, the same principle is applied on a bench
basis.
Area : 28
21
47
2
1
2
1
Kriging
- Kriging is a good declustering tool (see later).
- A regular grid of cells is superimposed on the data.
The size of the cell does not matter too much.
- The cells are kriged using the samples. The sample kriging weights are kept in memory.
- The declustered weight of a given sample is the
sum of the corresponding kriging weights kept in
memory.
- Note:
- Declustering depends very much on the variogram model (and nugget value).
f.184C
Area : 37
17
44
Average
Naive: 1 + 2 + 8 + 6 + 1 + 2 = 3.33 g/t Au
6
Declustered: 37*1 + 28*2 + 17*8 + 21*6 + 47*2 + 44*1
37 + 28 + 17 + 21 + 47 + 44
= 2.54 g/t Au
67
68
Nearest Neighbour Model
- Data is used to estimate a regular cell/block model.
Closest data is used to estimate each block.
- Resulting distribution is the distribution of
estimated blocks.
- The shape of the resulting distribution is very
similar to the shape of the polygonally declustered
distribution.
- Advantage:
- Can be done with commercial software.
- Disadvantage:
- Does not attach declustered weights to samples.
- Notes:
- Usual AMEC procedure.
- NN model block size should be small, otherwise many samples may not be considered.
Automatic cell declustering
- Based on assumption that clusters are always in
high grade zone. The naive average is therefore
overestimated.
- Several cell size are automatically used for declustering.
- The selected cell size is that one that gives the lowest average.
Declustered
Mean
Optimum
Cell Size
0
Tiny
Cell Size
f.177
Huge
Note: tiny or huge cell size <=> No declustering
69
Note 1:
- Some declustered weights can be very large due to:
- huge polygonal area (on the fringe)
- special sample location (start/end of hole)
- The solution consists in:
- setting a maximum value when declustering
- declustering within an EDA envelope
Note 2:
- Polygonal declustering incomplete due to declustering radius smaller than small polygons.
- Solution consists in:
- Checking maps of declustered areas
- Increasing declustering radius and using EDA
envelope to control the fringes
- Check declustering weights and eventually
trim them.
Useful displays
- Histogram of weights
- Maps of weight values
- Maps of declustered areas
71
- Nice in theory, but often inconclusive in practice.

Not recommended.
70
DECLUSTERING: Statistics

Let N AU values
z(xi ), i = 1, . . . , N and

wi , i = 1, . . . , N rescaled declustered weights such
that:
N
X
wi = 1
i=1
Declustered statistics are:

- Mean:
mZ =
N
X
wi z(xi )
i=1
- Variance:
s2Z
N
X
i=1
N
X

2
wi z(xi ) mZ
wi z 2 (xi ) m2Z
i=1
p
- Standard deviation: sZ = s2Z .
- Median: z50 such that the sum of the declustered
weights of the values less than z50 is 0.5.
Note: if pairs of values are available, the covariance (see
bivariate statistics) can also be declustered.
72
DECLUSTERING: Example (1/3)
AU Naive Histogram
Nb. of data
mean
std. dev.
coef. var
maximum
minimum
Nb. of data
mean
std. dev.
coef. var
maximum
minimum
0.120
Frequency
Frequency
0.120
Histogram of Declustered Weights
4296
2.059
2.179
1.058
16.000
0.000
0.080
0.040
4296
3.109
4.164
1.339
100.000
0.037
0.080
0.040
0.000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
0.000
.01
Au (g/t)
.1
1.
10.
100.
Decl. Weight
AU Declustered Histogram
Nb. of data
mean
std. dev.
coef. var
maximum
minimum
Frequency
0.120
4296
1.763
1.984
1.125
16.000
0.000
Very few excessive weights. Keep as is, or trim to 40.
0.080
0.040
0.000
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Au (g/t)
-14% change in grade

73
74
DECLUSTERING: Exercise 7
Let the following sampling situation:
Declustering polygons - Elev: 202.5

75800
76000
76200
76400
95200
95200
95000
95400
95400
75600
95000
94800
94600
100m
What would be a reasonable cell declustering size?
94400
94400
94800
94600
f.118
75600
75800
76000
76200
76400
Polygons
Geology
1.
5200.
Incomplete declustering in the Northern portion of the

map and in elongated domain in the SW.
75
76
COMPOSITING 1/3
Support size (point, 2 m sample, block, etc.) is important.
- Different support sizes in different variabilities.
- Blocks are less variable than samples.
In theory, samples must be representative of the population. 5m samples are not representative of a 1 m
sample population.
(Most) estimation algorithms do not account for sample
size, e.g. do not make the difference between a 10 and
a 1 m sample.
Solution: composite samples so that resulting composite lengths are identical.
Original

Samples

Rock

A
"Hard"
Geological

Boundary

Rock
B

f. 178
Regular
Composites
77
COMPOSITING 2/3
Compositing may be required if:
- Sample lengths are much different: average length
of 1.5 m, many 50 cm long samples centered on
high grade veins.
Before compositing:
- Histogram of sample lengths.
- Histograms of sample grades per interval of lengths.
- Eventually trim or cut very high grade (outliers)
to avoid smearing them over much longer lengths
(More on outliers in Section Bivariate Statistics).
Composite length should be such that:
- Enough variability is retained when estimating.
- No geological boundary crossing.
- Do not exceed block size:
- 5m benches: 2/3 m composites OK; 5m is
maximum.
If possible, composite only what is needed, i.e. leave
untouched composites if in specified Min/Max limits.
78
COMPOSITING 3/3
Impact of compositing:
- Loose original samples;
- Grade variability reduced;
- Number of samples reduced;
- Geological contacts can be smeared out.
If an original sample length is very long, compositing
will split it in many regular smaller lengths.
- OK if the original grade is very low.
- Problem if original grade is very high, because the
location of the high grade is unknown.
After compositing:
- Check for smallest composites
- Eventually discard some of them.
- Check pre/post length weighted histograms.
- Means should be the same.
- Variance should decreases after compositing.
Visual check: display drill holes with the composited
grade histogram on one side and the original grade histogram on the other side.
79
80
OTHER EDA TOOLS: Checking Trends
OTHER EDA TOOLS: Grade profiles
2.5ft Composites, Declustered - All Domains
Comparison of Au,Ag,Cu,Zn,C and S for DDH161

350.5
41756.0
79660.0
276.0
41449.0
79430.0
201.5
41142.0
79200.0
40835.0
78740.0
-22.0
78510.0
-96.5
39914.0
78280.0
-171.0
78050.0
39300.0
-245.5
77820.0
0.443
0.886
1.329
1.772
2.215
2.658
3.101
3.544
3.987
0.443
0.886
1.329
1.772
2.215
2.658
3.101
3.544
3.987
0.0
0.443
0.886
1.329
bh_met1_tr (g/t)
1.772
2.215
2.658
3.101
425.0
79890.0
350.5
79660.0
276.0
41449.0
79430.0
201.5
79200.0
78740.0
-96.5
78280.0
-171.0
78050.0
532.4
798.6
1064.8
1331.0
1597.2
1863.4
2129.6
2395.8
2662.0
Composites
-245.5
77820.0
266.2
0.1
1.0
10.0 100
0.01
0.1
1.0
10.0 100
20
20
40
40
60
60
80
80
100
100
120
120
140
140
160
160
180
180
200
200
220
220
3.987
-22.0
78510.0
39914.0
0.0
0.01
52.5
40221.0
39300.0
10.0 100
127.0
78970.0
39607.0
1.0
f197a
Elevation (m)
80120.0
41756.0
Northing (m)
Easting (m)
Number of Data by Coordinate Axes

42063.0
40528.0
3.544
bh_met1_tr (g/t)
42370.0
40835.0
0.1
-320.0
0.0
bh_met1_tr (g/t)
41142.0
Depth
0.01
52.5
40221.0
39607.0
Copper + Zinc (in %) Carbon + Sulphur (in %)
127.0
78970.0
40528.0
Gold + Silver (in g/t)

Depth
Elevation m (m)
425.0
79890.0
0.0
Composites
0.0
80120.0
42063.0
Northing (m)
Easting (m)
Grade Profiles by Coordinate Axes

42370.0
-320.0
0.0
Number of Data
266.2
532.4
798.6
1064.8
1331.0
1597.2
1863.4
2129.6
2395.8
2662.0
0.0
Number of Data
266.2
532.4
798.6
1064.8
1331.0
1597.2
1863.4
Number of Data
2129.6
2395.8
2662.0
f197a
0.01
0.1
1.0
10.0 100. 0.01
0.1
1.0
10.0 100
0.01
0.1
1.0
10.0 100
81
82
OTHER EDA TOOLS Boxplots
OTHER EDA TOOLS Multiple Probability Plots

Different Mineralizations
AU BOXPLOTS
1000.0
DOM-03
DOM-04
DOM-05
DOM-06
DOM-07
1000.0
PROBALITY Plot - Domain 04 - 07 - Au Dwt

900.0
100.0
100.0
10.0
10.0
1.0
1.0
500.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
GRADE
f. 63
0.1
Number of data
Mean
Std. Dev.
Coef. of Var.
Maximum
Upper quartile
Median
Lower quartile
Minimum
0.1
4859
4.7667
21.9575
4.6065
680.0
2.9
1.0
0.3
0.01
28050
1.2245
6.3134
5.1559
370.0
0.9
0.23
0.1
0.01
20902
0.7509
3.7238
4.9593
398.0
0.5
0.11
0.1
0.01
83
13793
6.1199
36.3533
5.9402
972.0
4.5
1.2
0.2
0.01
19117
10.6783
45.2865
4.241
1000.0
6.9
2.25
0.5
0.01
50.0
30.0
20.0
Number of data
Mean
Std. Dev.
Coef. of Var.
Maximum
Upper quartile
Median
Lower quartile
Minimum
10.0
5.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1000
0.0500
0.0300
0.0200
0.0100
99.99
99.9 99.8
99 98
95
90
80 70 60 50 40 30 20
PROBALITY OF
EXCEEDING GRADE
84
10
0.5
0.1
pdi_12
0.01
UNIV. STATISTICS: Summary 3/3

Geology model
- Geology must be relevant to mineralization.
FACT SHEET
No New Formulas
EDA envelope
Clusters:
- Overestimation possible
- Various declustering techniques:
- Cell, polygonal, kriging, NN
- Declustered mean, variance, and covariance.
Compositing
Other EDA tools:
- Assay above cut-off statistics
- Checking spatial anomalies
- Checking trends
- Checking grade profiles
85
86
BIVARIATE STATISTICS
BIVARIATE DESCRIPTION
Content
Scattergram Bivariate Histogram
Bivariate description:
- Graphs: scattergrams,...
- Statistics: covariance, coefficient of correlation,...
Bivariate model:
- Intuitive introduction
List of pairs of values:

X (Zn)
4.61
6.07
4.60
7.89
...
Y (Pb)
3.2
4.9
3.9
5.3
...
Scattergram:
Marginal and conditional statistics
Applications:
- Regression
- Trimming, cutting outliers
- Checking pairs of values
- Checking geological boundaries
Scattergram
f. 89
Bivariate histogram:
y
Biv. histogram
1
1
f.90
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Examples
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Marginal Statistics
5.00

N pairs ZnPb values: (xi , yi ), i = 1, . . . , N
Past VS Current Cu Sample Values (<= 20m apart)

Arithmetic Scale
Number of data 918
cu_new (%)
4.00
3.00
X Variable: mean
std. dev.
minimum
maximum
0.554
0.709
0.001
6.080
Y Variable: mean
std. dev.
minimum
maximum
0.618
0.886
0.001
8.722
correlation 0.572
rank correlation 0.613
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
cu_pre (%)
10.
Logarithmic Scale
Number of data 918
cu_new (%)
1.
.1
X Variable: mean
std. dev.
minimum
maximum
0.554
0.709
0.001
6.080
Y Variable: mean
std. dev.
minimum
maximum
0.618
0.886
0.001
8.722
correlation 0.572
Marginal statistics:

Y
histog.

Biv. histogram

X
histog.

f101
.001
.01
.1
1.
10.
cu_pre (%)
4
Different scales are sometimes necessary to observe low
and high grade values.
3

- Univariate statistics of X and Y

- Means: mX and mY
- Variances: s2X and s2Y
.01
.001
x
f.91
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Joint Statistics

X and Y considered jointly:
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Examples of Correlation

Various coefficients of correlation (Davis, 1973):
Covariance:
!
N
1 X
[xi mX ][yi mY ] ,
Cov(X, Y ) =
N
i=1
!
N
1 X
=
[xi yi ] mX mY .
N i=1
f. 33
Cor = 0.98
Cor = 0.54
Cov.= Mean of Products Product of Means

Cor = 0.80
Cor = 0.16
Coefficient of correlation:
x
y
Cov(X, Y )
Cor(X, Y ) =
sX sY
1 Cor(X, Y ) 1
Cor = 0
Cor = undefined
Notes:
- Cov(X, X) = V ar(X)
- Cor(X, X) = 1
The covariance and coefficient of correlation are measures of linear correlation.
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Induced Correlation
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Induced Correlation

X versus X 2 :
Pebble example (Davis, 1973):
0.10
AXES "A" , "B" , "C", PICKED RANDOMLY
VAR 1: V1 ~ N(0., 1.)
No. of Data 1000

Mean -0.04
Std. Dev 1.00
Frequency
0.08
Max.
Min.
0.06
4.00
-3.34
0.04
0.02
0.00
-3.0
AXIS "A" > AXIS "B" > AXIS "C"
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
V1
(Davis, 1976)
VAR 2: V2 = V1 ** 2
No. of Data 1000
Mean 0.99
Std. Dev 1.44
0.30
f.95
Max. 16.07
Min.
0.00
0.20
Frequency
0.10
Two elements A and B such that A + B = 100%.
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
V2
16.0
v1/v2 scattergram
100
No. of Data 1000

Correlation -0.06
Rank correlation -0.05
v2
12.0
Max.
Min.
8.0
16.07
0.00
f.96
100 A
4.0
0.0
Similar but less obvious results with more than two elements that add to a constant.
7
-3.36
-2.36
-1.36
-0.36
0.64
1.64
2.64
3.64
cor_induced.eps
v1
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Exercise 8

Let 11 pairs of AuS values
X (Au)
.1
.2
.7
.8
.9
1.2
Y (S)
1.01
2.54
0.60
1.72
2.63
1.82
X (Au)
2.0
2.4
3.5
5.7
18.0
Y (S)
3.25
2.34
3.68
4.89
2.24
Draw the scattergram

Compute the:
- covariance;
- coefficient of correlation.
HINTS
- The stats of X (mx , s2x , sx )have already been computed.
- For the covariance
- Cov = Meanof Products - Product of Means
PN
Cov(X, Y ) = N1 i=1 xi yi mX mY
- Compute the mean of xi yi , then mx and my .
- For the correlation coefficient, use the fact that:
- Variance of X = s2x = 24.3 (computed earlier)
- Variance of Y = s2y = 1.32 (graciously provided).
9
11
10
12
BIV. DESC.: Rank Correlation Coefficient
BIV. DESC.: Rank Correlation Coefficient
Previous Exercise 8 Au and S values are:

X (Au)
.1
.2
.7
.8
.9
1.2
Y (S)
1.01
2.54
0.60
1.72
2.63
1.82
X (Au)
2.0
2.4
3.5
5.7
18.0
Y (S)
3.25
2.34
3.68
4.89
2.24
The ranks RAu and RS are:

Au
10
11
10
11
The rank correlation coefficient is computed from the

ranks of the data values, not the values themselves.
The rank correlation coefficient is:
- Robust with respect to outliers
- Often a better measure of correlation for precious
metal deposits.
Example with previous Exercise 8 data:
- Correlation coefficient = 0.22 (cf. solution)
- Rank correlation coefficient = 0.85 (cf. below)
13
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Properties of m and s2

Demonstration given in Exercises 4 and 9.
Compute intermediate quantities:

- N = 11: number of data
P
P
RAu,i =
RS,i = 66
P 2
P 2
RAu,i =
RS,i = 506
P
RAu,i RS,i = 472
Compute covariance of the ranks:

P
RAu,i = 55/11 = 5
- mRau = N1
- mRs = mRau = 5
P

- Cov(RAu , RS ) = N1
Aui Si mRau mRs
= 472/11 5 5 = 17.91
Compute rank correlation coefficient:

P
R2Au,i m2Rau
- s2Rau = N1
= 506/11 52 = 21
- s2Rs = s2Rau = 21
- Cor(RAu , RS ) = Cov(RAu , RS )/sRau sRs = 0.85
The rank correlation coefficient is not much affected by

the 18 g/t Au outlier.
14
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Conditional Statistics

Conditional statistics:
Let two RVs X and Y . We have:

- The means: mX and my
- The variances: s2X and s2y
- The covariance: Cov(X,Y)
y|x
Biv. histogram
1
f.92
Properties of 1 RV (X; recall):

maX = a mX
s2aX = a2 s2X
mX+b = mX + b
s2X+b = s2X
- Univariate statistics computed on X, given that Y

takes some value(s), and vice versa.
- Conditional Means: mX|Y =y and mY |X=x
- Conditional Variances: s2X|Y =y and s2Y |X=x
Properties of 2 RVs (X & Y; new):

mX+Y = mX + mY
s2X+Y = s2X + s2Y + 2Cov(X, Y )
(NEW!)
More generally
maX+bY +c = a mX + b mY + c
s2aX+bY +c = a2 s2X + b2 s2Y + 2abCov(X, Y )
The average is a linear operator
15
Conditional
histograms
x|y
(NEW!)
16
BIVARIATE MODEL: Introduction

As in the univariate case, models are needed to go beyond description to:
- Build estimators (regression, prediction)
- Solve problems (minimizing spread or errors when
estimating)
- Demonstrate properties
BIV. MODEL: Bivariate pdf fXY (x, y)

Description: bivariate histogram:
y
Biv. histogram
In fact, multivariate models are sometimes needed:

- Simulation (sequential gaussian)
Following section is just a quick glance at the bivariate
model. Purpose is to see parallel between description
and modeling when two variables are involved.
1
f.90
P (4 < X 5 &
4 < Y 5) = 2/26 = 7.7%.
Model: biv. probability distribution function (pdf):

fXY(x,y)
d
f.97
a b
- P (a < X b &
c < Y d) = Double Integral.
17
18
BIV. MODEL: Marginal pdf s
BIV. MODEL: Joint Statistics
Description: marginal histograms:
Biv. histogram

Y
histog.

X
histog.

Description (recall)
- Covariance:
N
1 X
[xi mX ][yi mY ]
Cov(X, Y ) =
N
i=1
!
N
1 X
=
[xi yi ] mX mY .
N
i=1
f.91
- Correlation coefficient:
Model: marginal probability density functions (pdfs):

1 Cor(X, Y ) =
Cov(X, Y )
1
sX sY
Marginal PDFS fX(x) & fY(y)
fXY(x,y)
fY(y)
fX(x)
f.98
Model (new)
- Covariance:
X,Y = E[(X X )(Y Y )]
= E(XY ) X Y
- Correlation coefficient:
1 XY =
19
20
XY
1
X Y
BIV. MODEL: Parameter Properties

Properties of and 2 similar to properties of
m amd s2 .
We have:
- Two RVs (e.g. Au & Cu): X, Y
BIV. MODEL: Conditional pdf s

Description: conditional histogram of X given Y = y0 :
Condition
on Y
Properties of 1 RV (X; recall):

aX = aX
Biv. histogram
1
f.92a
x/y
Conditional
histogram
of X given Y
X+b = X + b
2
2
aX
= a2 X
2
2
X+b
= X
Model: conditional pdf of X given y = y0 :
Properties of 2 RVs (X & Y; new):
Conditional pdf
X+Y = X + Y
2
X+Y
1
1
2
X
Y2
fXY(x,y)
+ 2X,Y
yo

y

fX|Y=y (x)
o

f.100a
More generally:
x
aX+bY +c = aX + bY + c
2
aX+bY
+c
2
a2 X
b2 Y2
+ 2abX,Y
- Parameters: X|Y =yo , X|Y =yo , . . .

Same for Y given x.
21
22
23
24
REGRESSION: Introduction
LINEAR REGRESSION
Function summarizing some conditional statistics:

- mean of a variable Y given another variable X or
vice versa;
- median of Y given X;
- etc.
X|Y
Y|X
Used for prediction, or to study trend between 2 variables.
Binormal Cloud
of points
f.103a
Obtained by minimizing deviations between the

experimental values and the regression line.
Example from Davis (1973):
Two regression lines: Y |X and X|Y

Optimal if samples are (bi)normally distributed and not
clustered.
Regression of Y |X = x (binormal case):
Y |X=x = Y + YX XY (x X )
Moisture
A
B
Y2 |X=x = Y2 (1 2XY )
C
(Davis, 1976)
f.102
Depth
- A: minimize deviations in Y (Y |X: Y given X);

- C: minimize deviations in X (X|Y : X given Y );
- B: minimize joint deviations;
= 3 possible regressions (of the mean).
25
Main problem is lack of normality. Solution:

- Log transform prior to linear regression;
- Polynomial regression;
- Smoothed regression.
26
LINEAR REGRESSION ON LOGS

Recall on lognormal distribution.
X ~ Lognormal
LINEAR REGRESSION ON LOGS

Linear regression on the logs is optimal but:
- The regression is optimal for the logs.
ln(x) ~ Normal
fX(x)
gln(X)(ln(X))
x50 = e
2
+
2
e
Taking the anti-log of Y |X=x provides the conditional

median of Y
y50Y |X = exp(Y |X )
f 42a
x50
X ~ LN (,
2)
= ln(x)50 ln(x)
ln(X) ~ N(, 2)
If (X,Y) are bi-lognormally distributed,

then (ln(X), ln(Y)) are bi-normally distributed.
2
- (X, Y ) LN (X , Y , X
, Y2 , XY );
2
- (lnX, lnY ) N (X , Y , X
, Y2 , XY );
Linear regression on the logs is optimal:
Y |X=x = Y + YX XY (ln(x) X )
The conditional mean of Y is obtained by:

Y |X = exp(Y |X +
Y

ln(Y)
Y|X
y50
Y|X

Y|X
Binormal Cloud
of points
Bilognormal Cloud
of points
X
27
Y2
)
2
f.104
28
ln(X)
POLYNOMIAL REGRESSION
Polynomial of order 2 (Davis, 1973):
PIECEWISE LINEAR REGRESSION

2 linear segments:
Y
Moisture
Moisture
(Davis, 1976)
f.105a
f.105
Depth
Depth
Dont overdo it!

Y
f.106
29
30
SMOOTHED REGRESSION
Average behaviour of Y is computed within moving window along X.
Does not make any assumption about the (X, Y ) distribution.
More difficult to use as predictor, but good enough in
most cases, when we want to look at the general trend
between 2 variables.
Example:
LC - TRENCHES
100. ORIGINAL AU VERSUS REJECT
NB. OF DATA 477

X VAR: MEAN 5.814
STD. DEV. 6.110
REJECT AU
Y VAR: MEAN 6.021

STD. DEV. 7.264
10.
CORRELATION 0.935
f107
1.
1.
10.
100.
ORIGINAL AU
31
32
EDA: Checking Twin Holes
HARD / SOFT GEOLOGICAL BOUNDARIES
Comparison of Drill Holes D-1 and D-2

10.0
WASTE
Waste
/ Waste
100.0
D-1
D-2
10
10.0
20
1.0
30
0.1
0.1
1.0
10.0
DDH161 Au (in g/t)
66
1.779
1.854
1.487
0.927
0.553
0.591
10.0
10.0
0.1
1.0
0.1
0.1
1.0
10.0
Au in Waste
100.0
Number of pairs: 89
X Mean: 1.517
Y Mean: 1.558
X Std.Dev.: 2.238
Y Std.Dev.: 2.239
Correlation (on logs): 0.214
60
Number of pairs:
D-1 mean:
D-2 mean:
D-1 std. dev.:
D-2 std. dev:
Linear correlation:
Rank correlation:
100.0
0.01
0.01
0.1
1.0
10.0
Au in Waste
100.0
1.0
0.1
0.01
0.01
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
Au in Ore
f.110
50
100.0
1.0
OreORE
/ Ore
100.0
10.0
0.01
0.01
40
0.01
0.01
WASTE / ORE
Waste
Ore
100.0
Au in Ore
1.0
70
Number of pairs: 129

X Mean: 1.852
Y Mean: 7.363
X Std.Dev.: 2.521
Y Std.Dev.: 6.328
Number of pairs: 102

X Mean: 8.882
Y Mean: 7.142
X Std.Dev.: 7.264
Y Std.Dev.: 6.296
80
90
100
0.01
0.1
1.0
10.0

Ore / Ore
100.0
Waste / Waste
f. 144

Waste Ore
RS2 Au (in g/t)
0.1
Au in Adj. Waste
0.01
100.0
COMPARISON
OF CONSECUTIVE
DOWN HOLE AUDown
ASSAYSHole Assays
Musselwhite
Comparison
of Consecutive
Au (in g/t)
Au in Adj. Ore
Depth
Ore
Waste
Note: sometimes, mineralization occurs at contact.

33
34
HARD / SOFT GEOLOGICAL BOUNDARIES
BIV. DESC.: QQ Plot

Useful to compare 2 populations, say A and B.
Contact Plot
DOMAIN: In_Stope
The quantiles of A and B,

(a1 , b1 ), (a2 , b2 ), , (a100, b100),
are plotted on a X/Y graph.
DOMAIN: Out_Stope
N = 2146
Mean = 2.72
N = 16721
Mean = 0.79
5.0
4.5
4.0
10
3.5
10
10
10
90
196
f.108
3.0
486
74
2.5
351
104
2.0
A
0
10
A
0
10
10
A
0
10
164
52
- Different shape
- Same shape
- Same distribution - Same shape
- "A" more variable - "A" less variable
than "B"
than "B"
94
1.5
120
188
426
640
125
1.0
219
56
0.5
f144a
0.0
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
Distance From Contact, m
35
36
BIV. DESC.: Relative Difference Plot
SCATTERPLOT
SCATTERPLOT (log scaling)
ASSAY AASSAY B
1.0
0.1
1.0
ASSAY B (OZ/T )
- X axis: mean of pair of values

- Y axis: relative difference between values
(AB)
(A+B)/2 100%
SIDE-BY-SIDE BOXPLOT
10.0
ASSAY B (OZ/T )
(A+B)
2
ASSAY A: NORMAL ORIGINAL

ASSAY B: NORMAL REJECT
AU (OZ/T)
Useful to investigate conditional bias between two

populations, say A and B
BIV. DESC.: Checking Pairs of Values
0.1
0.01
189
0.146
0.162
1.285
0.175
0.091
0.055
0.001
0
0
Q-Q PLOT
+20
0
-10
0
0
0.1
0.01
0.01
1
ASSAY A QUANTILES (OZ/T)
-2 0
RELDIFF PLOT
f.109
A + B
2
RELDIFF [A-B]/AVG (%)
-3 0
39
0.1
ASSAY A QUANTILES (OZ/T)
1.0
RELDIFF PLOT (log scali ng)
100
100
75
75
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
Notes on graph:
- Low values of A < B
- High values of A > B
- A few outliers (analytical errors?).
37
1.0
1.0
RELDIFF [A-B]/AVG (%)
A - B
(A + B) / 2
+10
0.1
ASSAY A (OZ/T)
Q-Q PLOT (log scaling)
LINEAR CORRELATION: 0.699

RANK CORRELATION: 0.799
+30
0.01
0.01
1
ASSAY A (OZ/T)
ASSAY B QUANTILES (OZ/T)
100%
RELATIVE DIFFERENCE
PLOT
189
0.143
0.136
1.207
0.177
0.094
0.064
0.001
ASSAY B QUANTILES (OZ/T)
NUMBER
MEAN
STDEV
MAXIMUM
75TH %-ILE
MEDIAN
25TH %-ILE
MINIMUM
50
25
0
-25
-50
-75
-100
0.0
1.0
AVERAGE [A+B]/2 (OZ/T)
38
40
-100
0.01
0.1
1.0
AVERAGE [A+B]/2 (OZ/T)
pdi_0014.eps
OUTLIER TRIMMING / TOPCUT (1)
When computing statistics within a geological domain,

we make the assumption that there is only one population and that all samples belong to that population.
The main questions are:

- Is trimming/cutting warranted?
- If yes, which value(s) to choose?
Outliers or extreme values are often observed. Their

impact can be a serious overestimation of the block
model grade and variability.
The answers are subjective.
There is also considerable uncertainty as to the

grade and tonnage represented by these very high values.
Various solutions:
- Outliers are erroneous: delete or correct them;
- Outliers are from different population:
- define new geology domain;
- trim them down prior to computing statistics;
- restrict their influence during estimation (1/d2
or kriging);
- use indicator kriging.
- High values are from same population:
- trim them down to reduce the risk.
Useful graph to assess outliers:

- Actual versus smoothed grade profiles
- Histogram, cumulative probability plots
- Decile analysis
- Indicator correlation plot
- Coefficient of variation plot
- Quantity of metal plot
Method to assess the risk
- Metal at risk
Other useful information:
- Number of trimmed/cut data
- Quantity of metal reduction after trimming
In this section, trimming = topcut.

41
42
Grade profiles along holes
Histogram
HISTOGRAM
DHxxxx
Sample
Grades
Outliers
Smoothed
Sample Grades
100
10
NUMBER OF DATA 455

NB CUT-OUT 93
CUT VALUE (MIN) 0.110
MEAN 10.528
STD. DEV 18.818
COEF. OF VAR 1.787
0.080
Frequency
Geological
Contacts
0.100
MAXIMUM 201.000
MINIMUM 0.110
0.060
0.040
80 g/t
f.171
0.020
25
50
75
100
125
0.000
.1
- Outliers stand out with respect to smoothed grade

profile.
Similar techniques can be applied in 2 and 3D:
- 2D: sample values & contours; map of residuals.
- 3D: sample values & 3D estimates; list of residuals.
1.
10.
Au
f114_a
1000.
- A possible trimming/cutting value is where the

histogram classes start to be isolated on the
horizontal axis.
- Possible trimming value from graph: 80 g/t.
Advantage: detect local outliers.
43
100.
44
Cumulative (log)probability plots.
Decile Analysis
% of Contained Metal
Decile
# of Samples Average (g/t)
Minimum (g/t) Maximum (g/t) Contained Metal (g)
CUM. DISTRIBUTION
1.0
1.9
3.0
4.2
5.3
6.9
9.3
12.3
18.0
99.99
CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY
99.9
99.8
99
98
95
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
70 g/t
38.0
1.35
2.72
4.22
5.91
7.44
9.66
13.04
17.24
25.26
62.54
14.22
0.8
2.0
3.4
5.28
6.69
8.5
11.1
15.0
21.0
32.0
0.8
1.9
3.4
5.25
6.65
8.4
11.0
15.0
21.0
31.5
201.0
201.0
36
73
114
159
200
260
352
465
681
1438
3783
32.35
36.67
40.35
41.5
45.5
49.25
51.5
55.5
93.33
185.5
32.0
35.0
39.7
41.0
42.0
49.0
50.0
54.0
61.0
170.0
32.7
39.0
41.0
42.0
47.5
49.5
53.0
57.0
110.0
201.0
64
110
80
83
136
98
103
111
280
371
Percentile (of last decile)
10
5
2
1
0.2
0.1
0.01
0.100
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
23
266
0-10
10-20
20-30
30-40
40-50
50-60
60-70
70-80
80-90
90-100
Total
1.00
10.0
100.
1000.
f114_b
VARIABLE
- A single population would be represented on the plot

by a gradually increasing line.
- A kink or a break in the curve might indicate two
populations or the presence outliers.
- A possible trimming/cutting value is around the
kink/break where the second population (outliers) gets
predominant.
1.7
2.9
2.1
2.2
3.6
2.6
2.7
2.9
7.4
9.8
2
3
2
2
3
2
2
2
3
2
90-91
91-92
92-93
93-94
94-95
95-96
96-97
97-98
98-99
99-100
Suggestion: cutting may be warranted

*
Decile Analysis
- Introduced by I.S. Parrish, Min. Eng., Apr. 97.
- See next page for 40/10 rule of thumb
- 40/10 rule to be reduced if last decile / percentile
do no contain a full complement of samples.
45
46
Possible trimming value from graph

- Note that last decile / percentile not full.
- Trimming may be warranted.
- Previous percentiles 3 values: 61, 109, 110 g/t
- Possible trimming value: 100 g/t
47
Indicator correlation plot.

1.0
0.9
Indicator Correlation for Lag 1
Decile Analysis (Contd.)

- If Top decile contains:
- More than 40% of metal, or
- More than twice the metal of previous decile
Split it in 10 percentiles
- If top percentile contains:
- More than 10% of metal
Trimming is warranted
- Suggested trimming value is then:
- Highest value of previous percentile
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
60 g/t
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
Indicator Threshold (g/t Au)
1000.0
f114_c
- This plot shows the correlation coefficient of two adjacent down-hole sample indicators for increasing cut-offs.

1, if the grade z(x) zc
- Indicator: ic (x) =
0, otherwise
where zc is the cut-off (indicator threshold).
- As the cut-off zc increases, the correlation decreases.
- A possible trimming/cutting value is when the correlation is or is getting close to 0.
48

Coefficient of variation plot.
Quantity of metal plot.

100.0
% of Contained Metal in Samples
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0.1
1000.0
f114_d
Cutting Limit (g/t Au)
90.0
1.0
10.0
100.0
Trimming Value (g/t Au)
- This plot shows the coefficient of variation of the cut

grades for increasing cutting limits.
- As the cutting limit increases, coefficient of variation
increases.
- Indicates the impact of cutting on the CV.
1000.0
f114_e
- This plot shows the relative quantity of metal contained

within the trimmed-down samples for various trimming
values.
- Useful to know the quantity of metal discarded by
trimming.
- 93% of metal corresponding to 70g/t trimming value.
= 7% of metal loss if larger than 80 g/t Au samples
are trimmed down to 80 g/t.
50
10.0
1.0
What is the metal at risk?

- Consider:
- Ore only, not waste
- Yearly production increments
- Distribution of the yearly metal production:
- Average = estimated yearly production
- 20th percentile is such that:
- 4 times out of 5, production will be higher
- 1 time out of 5, production will be lower
0.0
0.1
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Objective:
- Assess the risk associated to high grade material
- Trim down high grade values to reduce the risk
Trimming Limit (g/t Au)
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
% of Contained Metal in Samples

Indicator Threshold (g/t Au)
Variable: au (weighted by wtpoly) from 0.1 to 9999.0

fig114_f
Indicator Correlation for Lag 1
51
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
Cutting Statistics
D6: HW Shear -- AU Decl, Trim 1500 g/t, Env=2, Inside Trust.
Metal at Risk
Cutting Value (g/t Au)
100.0
1000.0
49
Yearly Metal Production
Metal
at risk
20th
Percentile
f.200
Average
52
Metal
Production

Metal at Risk vs. Other Methods
What is the metal at risk? (Contd)

- Metal at risk is:
- Average - 20th percentile
What is the trimming value?
- Such that the trimmed value average is close to the
20th percentile.
Procedure: Monte Carlo simulation
1. Get distribution of ore samples
2. Assess number N of ore samples mined out per year
3. Draw N samples out of the distribution
- Calculate metal content
4. Repeat No 3 many times
- Get distribution of metal production
5. Pick 20th percentile from distribution.
Compute corresponding topcut
53
Metal at risk:
- Objective
- Trimming value depends on production
- The higher the production, the lesser the risk,
the higher the trimming value
- Topcut model on the conservative side
- Actual production assumed to exceed prediction 4 times out of 5.
- Metal loss exists but we do not know where it
is.
Other methods
- Sometimes subjective
- Trimming does not depend on production
- Topcut model assumed to be middle of the road
model
- i.e. metal loss does not exist
54

Trimming/Cutting Summary Table
Histogram
Probability Plot
Decile Analysis
Indicator Correlation
Metal at risk
Final Choice
Number of Data Trimmed
Metal Loss
80 g/t
70 g/t
100 g/t
60 g/t
(1)
80 g/t
1.4
4 of 455
7%
(1) Notes:
- Metal at risk topcut yet to be included in
this example.
- Amec policy yet to be formalized.
55
56
BIVARIATE STATISTICS: Summary

Description
- Scattergram, bivariate histogram
- Marginal distributions and statistics
- Conditional distributions and statistics
- Covariance, correlation of coefficient,
rank correlation coefficient
Model
- Bivariate PDF of (X, Y )
- Marginal and conditional PDFs
- Covariance, correlation coefficient
FACT SHEET
Bivariate Statistics
sX,Y =
1
N
[xi mX ][yi mY ] =
[xi yi ] mX mY

Cov[X, Y ] = X,Y = E (X X )(Y Y )
= E(XY ) X Y
V ar(aX+bY +c) = a2 V ar(X)+b2 V ar(Y )+2abCov(X, Y )
Regression
- Linear, non linear, smoothed
Special Problems
- Checking twinned holes
- Checking hard/soft geological boundaries
- Checking pairs of values
- Choose cutting/trimming values
- Several graphs
- Metal at risk
57
1
N
58
VARIOGRAM
Content
Theory
- Definition
- Nugget, sill, range
- Anisotropy
- Models: nugget, spherical, exponential
- Variogram versus covariance
Practice
- Proportional effect
- Alternative variograms:
- Relative pairwise variogram
- Correlogram
- Computing variograms
- Variogram cross
- Variogram maps
- Modeling variograms
VARIOGRAM: Exercise 10
Suppose a mineralized zone as following:
6m
3m
Ni Saprolite
Zone
3m
D
f. 71a
How would you compare the similarity of B, C, and D

sample grades with respect to the grade of sample A?
VARIOGRAM Introduction
VARIOGRAM
Example with 3 samples
6m
3m
Ni Saprolite
Zone
Direction: 300 Azim

Distance:
10m
Difference 1:
2-1 = 1
Difference 2:
3-2 = 1
Avg Diff:
1
3 % Cu
3m
D
f. 71a
10m
The variogram is a function that quantifies the notion

of geological continuity or spatial correlation.
Diff.
3
2
1
0 0
10
30
Distance
(300 Azim)
Sill
Model
f. 12b
Range
0
Distance Between
Sample Locations
along one direction
Nugget
20
Variogram
Average
Difference
Between
Sample
Values
2 % Cu
1 % Cu
The correlation between sample grades:

- increases with decreasing distance between
samples;
- can vary with direction;
- varies with sample size;
- depends on the continuity.
20m
3-1=2
In fact, variogram is 1/2 average of squared differences.

6
VARIOGRAM: Zone of influence
The variogram quantifies spatial correlation by looking

at the average square difference between two values a
distance (and angle) h apart.
Experimental variogram:
5.00
IRON ORE FORMATION (DAVID, 1977)
4.00
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM: Definition
3.00
Up to 65m vertically
in iron ore formation
2.00
1.00
Range
Nh
1 X
(h) =
[z(xi ) z(xi + h)]2
2Nh i=1
0.00
0.
20.
40.
60.
80.
100.
DISTANCE
where Nh is the number of couples (z(xi ), z(xi + h))

separated by h (distance + direction).
Experimental variogram and model
8.00
BAUXITE (DAVID, 1977)
7.00
VARIOGRAM
6.00
(h)
No more than 2m in a
bauxite deposit
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
Range
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
DISTANCE
Total
Sill
Sill
f. 12
6.00
Nugget
Range
ANISOTROPY (DAVID, 1977)
Vertical
5.00
Range
4.00
VARIOGRAM
Distance (h)
3.00
Can be different in
different directions
2.00
Theoretical expression
2
1
(h) = E Z(x) Z(x + h)
2
9
Horizontal
Range
1.00
0.00
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
f. 72
DISTANCE
10
VARIOGRAM: Examples
There is one variogram for every deposit and for
every spatially correlated variable.
OIL IN TAR SAND
U3O8 - NEW MEXICO
U3O8 - WYOMING ROLL FRONT
(DAVID, 1977)
8.00 (DAVID, 1979)
(DAVID, 1979)
4.00
7.00
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM
2.00
1.00
VARIOGRAM
6.00
3.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.
40.
80.
DISTANCE
0.
120.
50.
100. 150. 200.

DISTANCE
250.
6.00 (DAVID, 1977)
5.00
5.00
4.00
4.00
200.
400.
600.
DISTANCE
800.
1000.
CU - EXOTICA
AG - MEXICO
WESTERN US COAL(SO2/BTU)
6.00 (DAVID, 1977)
0.
300.
8.00 (DAVID, 1977)

7.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.
2.00
20.0 30.0 40.0

DISTANCE
50.0
0.0
60.0
10.0
20.0 30.0 40.0

DISTANCE
50.0
60.0
20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

DISTANCE
f. 73
60.0
CU - LOS BRONCES
(J & H, 1978)
(J & H, 1978)
0.80
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM
10.0
3.00
0.00
10.0
12.0
15.0
4.00
TOPOGRAPHIC HEIGHTS
OIL GRADES
25.0
20.0
5.00
1.00
0.00
1000. 2000. 3000. 4000. 5000. 6000.
0.0
DISTANCE
30.0 (J & H, 1978)
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM
6.00
3.00
8.0
4.0
0.60
0.40
0.20
5.0
0.00
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

DISTANCE
0.
50.
100.
150.
DISTANCE
11
200.
0.0
10.0
12
VARIOGRAM: Models
Variances are computed using the variogram model.
The model therefore must ensure that all computed
variances are positive.
VARIOGRAM: Examples
Likely variograms
(h)
Example of models are:
(h)
Grade transects
Grade
Nugget
h
Dist.
Linear
(h)
Power
Nugget
Grade
f. 34
Spherical
(+ small nugget)
Sill
Exponential
Spherical
Gaussian
(h)
f. 16
Range
Dist.
Grade
Power
(+ small nugget)
Models with a sill

- Nugget: zero range
- Spherical
- Exponential: practical range
- Gaussian: practical range
Models with no sill
- Linear
- Power
Dist.
(h)
Grade
Gaussian
h
Dist.
(h)
Grade
Hole effect
Any linear combination of the above

Models with several structures
13
15
(+ small nugget)
Dist.
14
16
VARIOGRAM: Geometrical Anisotropy
VARIOGRAM: Anisotropy
Occurs when isotropy can be obtained by stretching/

squashing the deposit along 1 or 2 main directions.
Azim=0 0
Dist
Azim=45 0
ist
Ellipse of Ranges
R45
R90
R0
N
Long Range Azimuth
Azim
= 90 0
Dist
Ellipse of Ranges
f.17a
Variogram
90 0
Variogram Map
45 0
00
Azim=45 0
0 1/3 x Sill
ist
Dist
Azim=0 0
1/3 2/3 x Sill

2/3 1 x Sill
R90
R45
h
f.17
Dist
R0
Azim
= 90 0
f.17b
Notes:
- Variogram model covers all directions.
17
18
0.42
0.47
South -> North
83.
-18.
-118.
-218.
Example of a model consisting of two nested spherical

structures (no nugget).
-218.
-118.
-18.
83.
183.
0.35
0.44
0.52
0.61
0.70
0.78
0.87
Several structures are often needed to correctly fit a

variogram. For example:
- A nugget plus a spherical structure
- A nugget plus two exponential structures (short
and long ranges).
183.
0.52
0.58
0.63
West -> East
FA1 YZ map
-18.
-118.
-218.
-218.
-118.
-18.
83.
183.
1.0
0.95
1.1
1.2
0.68
0.73
0.79
0.84
183.
83.
83.
West -> East
-18.
-118.
-218.
-218.
-18.
-118.
South -> North
Bot -> Top
Nested structures
(h)
183.
Struc. 1 + 2
Struc. 1
West -> East
Struc. 2
f. 19
h
varmap_1.eps
-218.
-118.
-18.
83.
183.
-218.
-118.
-18.
83.
Geology 1 : 1-NE
FA1 Traditional Variogram Map
South -> North
83.
FA1 XZ map
FA1 XY map
VARIOGRAM: Nested Structures
Bot -> Top
183.
0.89
0.94
0.28
0.38
0.49
0.59
1.0
0.70
1.1
0.81
1.2
0.91
1.3
0.35
183.
0.44
0.52
0.61
0.70
1.0
0.78
1.1
0.87
1.2
0.95
VARIOGRAM: Variogram Map
The structures can sometimes be related to geology and

sampling.
The nugget includes the sampling error noise.
19
20
VARIOGRAM: Variogram Cloud
VARIOGRAM: Variogram vs Covariance
z(x)
(h) = C(0) C(h)
VARIOGRAM CLOUD
where C(h) is the covariance function.
( z(x)z(x+h) ) / 2
(h)
z(x+h)
f. 15
Covariance:
"
C(h)
#
Nh
X
1
z(xi )z(xi + h) mz(x) mz(x+h)
C (h) =
Nh
i=1
- C (h) is the covariance of the cloud.

- It is a measure of similarity.
Variogram:
(h) =
Nh
Nh
1 X 2
1 X h z(xi ) z(xi + h) i2
di =
Nh
Nh
2
i=1
i=1
- (h) is the moment of inertia of the cloud.

- It is a measure of dissimilarity.
21
23
Remarks:
- C(0) is the variance, i.e the sill of the variogram
- The covariance does not always exists (variogram
with no sill)
Theoretical expression
C(h) = E[Z(x)Z(x + h)] Z(x)Z(x+h)
= E[Z(x)Z(x + h)] 2 (if stationarity)
where stands for mean or expectation.

22
24
VARIOGRAM: Regular Grid

10m
5m
Au (g/t)
13
14
15
15
17
17
17
15
15
15
20
13
15
17
22
21
15
15
17
17
17
15
15
15
20
13
15
17
22
21
13
15
15
17
17
17
15
15
15
20
13
15
17
22
21
13
1
2Nh
Nh
X
15
14
14
15
14
14
15
14
11
15
17
16
13
f. 37
VARIOGRAM: Irregular Grid

In practice, h of (h) is defined as:
- a distance plus tolerance
- an azimuth plus tolerance
- a dip plus tolerance
Example in 2D
11
15
17
16
13
(10) = 1.7 (g/t)2
North
11
15
(20) = 2.6 (g/t)2
17
16
13
(h) =
i=1
[z(xi ) z(xi + h)]2
i
1 h
(10) =
(15 15)2 + (15 13)2 + = 1.7(g/t)2
2 13
i
1 h
(20) =
(15 13)2 + (15 13)2 + = 2.6(g/t)2
2 11
25
.21
: Samples
: zimuth
: Tol. on azim. (angle)
b: Tol. on azim. (bandwith)
h: Distance
h: Tol. on distance
26
Let 12 sample grades at the following locations:
3
12
14
50m
25m
f.75
Compute the experimental variogram values along the

following directions:
2
3
f.76
Draw a graph of the experimental variograms along the

various directions.
27
28
VARIOGRAM: Spherical Model
SPHERICAL MODEL
(h)
VARIOGRAM: Exponential Model

EXPONENTIAL MODEL
R =a
3
(h)
2R
3
.95 C
f.79
f.78
0
0
0
0
h h
h3 i
(h) = C 1.5 0.5 3 ,
R
R
= C, h R.
(h) = C[1 exp(h/a)],

0 h R,
all h
where R = 3a is the practical range and C is the sill.

Notation: C Exp(R), or C Exp(a).
Important:
- R is the practical range (95% of sill);
- a = R/3 is the parameter usually used in the formula;
- Be sure which of R or a to use when specifying
the structure parameters.
30
where R is the range and C is the sill.

Notation: C Sph(R).
29
VARIOGRAM: Nugget Model
VARIOGRAM: Nugget + Spherical Model
NUGGET +
NUGGET MODEL
(h)
SPHERICAL MODEL
(h)
Co
2R
3
C + Co
f.80
Co
f.81
(h) = 0, h = 0,
= C0 , h > 0.
Notation: C0 .
Note: a nugget structure has no range and is therefore
isotropic.
31
h = 0,
h h
h3 i
= C0 + C 1.5 0.5 3 ,
R
R
= C0 + C, h R.
(h) = 0,
32
hR
The following experimental variogram values were
obtained.
10
20
30
(h)
.3
.5
.48
.8
40
.7
50
60
70
80
90
(h)
1.0
.7
.8
.9
.7
Fit a variogram model to these experimental values.

- Produce a graph of the fit;
- Write down the parameters of the fitted model.
HINT. Use a nugget plus a spherical structure for
the fit.
33
34
35
36
ALTERNATIVE VARIOGRAMS
WHY?
IMPACT OF PROPORTIONAL EFFECT AND

CLUSTERS
Precious metal deposits do show a proportional effect

(heteroscedasticity).
PROPORTIONAL EFFECT
Std.
Dev.
()
The proportional effect has a different impact on the

variogram values for different lags.
- Short lags: strong impact because the values are computed from the clusters where the grade variability is
higher than average.
- Longer lags: smaller impact because these values are
computed from most of the dataset.
- Long lags: medium impact because of the fringe areas
where the grade variability is lower than average are
over-represented.
Sample Variogram
f. 83
(h)
Exhaustive Variogram
Mean (m)
- m and are computed within moving windows;

- variability of values increases with increasing
magnitude.
f.84
0
0
In practice, data are often clustered. Clusters are generally located in high grade areas.
h
(Shrivastava and Parker, 1989)
37
38
SOLUTION
Traditional variogram:
What we want is the shape of the exhaustive variogram

and not the sample variogram which has a distorted
shape.
(h) =
Note that the problem comes more from the clusters

than from the proportional effect.
- sensitive to clusters.
Traditional variograms cannot be declustered easily

(because we are dealing with pairs of values).
The objective of the alternative variograms is to reduce
the distortions by rescaling the experimental variogram
values.
Once the shape of the variogram is obtained and modeled, it can always be rescaled so that the total sill
equals the declustered variance. Note that this is:
- Not necessary if only the kriged estimates are required;
- Necessary for all other computations involving variability such as:
- Estimation variance;
- SMU dispersion variance.
39
Nh
1 X
[z(xi ) z(xi + h)]2
2Nh i=1
Covariance
"
#
Nh
X
1
C (h) =
z(xi )z(xi + h) mz(x) mz(x+h)
Nh i=1
- still sensitive to clusters, though the means of the
pairs head and tail samples are considered.
Correlogram
(h) =
C (h)
sz(x) sz(x+h)
- where s stands for standard deviation of the pairs

head and tail samples;
- *** Best Buy! ***
40
General Relative Variogram
GR
(h) =
(h)
,
m2 (h)
Relative Pairwise Variogram
RLP
(h) =
Nh
1 X [z(xi ) z(xi + h)]2
2

2Nh
z(xi )+z(xi +h)
i=1
- *** Best Buy! ***
Note
- For both relative variograms, (.)2 usually used as
denominator.
- Could be other function f(.), for example
f(m) instead of m2 .
Reference
- Srivastava R.M., Parker H.M. (1989).
Robust Measure of Spatial Continuity. Third International Geostatistics Congress, Avignon88, Ed.
Armstrong M., Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, Vol 1, pp. 295-308.
41
43
42
44
VARIOGRAM OF THE LOGS

Formulae:
(h) = m2 (eln (0) e[ln (0)ln (h)] )
where:
- m is the mean grade
- ln (h = 0) is the covariance of the logs for
distance zero, i.e. the variance of the logs.
- ln (h) is the variogram of the logs
- (h) is the variogram of the grades
VARIOGRAM OF THE LOGS

Using the variogram of the logs
- Log transform of the grades (neperian).
- Compute and fit the variogram of the logs.
- Back-transform the log variogram model using the
following relation:
(h) = m2 (eln (0) e[ln (0)ln (h)] )
- Re-fit the back-transformed variogram curve
Notes:
- Depends on bi-normal hypothesis after log
transform of the grades.
- Not recommended
Graph:
Note:
- Ranges are the same;
- ORIG variogram shows more variability.
45
VARIOGRAM OF THE NORMAL SCORES

Similar to variogram of the logs, except that the grade
transformation is more general.
Using the variogram of the normal scores
- Normal score transform of the grades (NSCO).
- Compute and fit the normal score variogram.
- Back-transform the NSCO variogram, using
bi-normal hypothesis.
- Re-fit the back-transformed variogram curve
Notes:
- Depends on bi-normal hypothesis after normal
score transform of the grades.
- Better than variogram of the log procedure
46
VARIOGRAM OF THE NORMAL SCORES

f(z)
z
10
1.
F(z)
.5
Same 20%
Proportion
-.85
G(y)
F(z=10) = G(y=-.85) = .2
0
0
y
g(y)
f. 7
s =1
-.85
m=0
Gaussian Transform:
- Original values: z with pdf f(z) and cdf F (z)
- Normal scores: y with pdf g(y) and cdf G(y)
- Normal scores are N (0, 1)
47
48
COMPUTING VARIOGRAMS
Generalities
- Choose an area that matters (EDA envelope).
- Do not cross faults or hard boundaries between
geological domains.
- Use geology to guide structural analysis.
- Do not mix data types, i.e.:
- DDH and BH;
- 1m composite and 10m composites.
However, 2-3m composites would be OK.
- If main anisotropy directions departs significantly
from straight lines:
- split the geological domain, or
- unfold it prior to variography.
Directions
Which directions?
- Main orthogonal anisotropy directions.
- Some other intermediate directions to confirm results obtained along main ones.
- Omnidirectional variogram if no anisotropy. Omnidirectional variogram within a plane.
Which tolerances?
- Start with a 200 tolerance on each side of directions, then reduce as much as possible.
- Tolerance on azimuth and plunge can be different.
- For vertical variograms, azimuth tolerance
must be 900 (i.e. no tolerance).
- Note: more tolerance implies more smoothing.
Variogram Types
- Correlograms.
- Relative pairwise variograms.
- Sometimes variograms of:
- logs
- (median) indicators
can be useful to infer anisotropy directions and
ranges.
Tips
- Omnidirectional variogram can provide good information for short distances.
- Directions which are better sampled can help define
the variogram shape.
- Down hole variograms are well behaved; provide
information on nugget and short distances.
- Variogram maps useful.
49
50
VARIOGRAM MAPS
VARIOGRAM MAPS
Correlograms maps at Toe=3110
93000
93200
93400
93000
93200
93400
93600
22400
1.2
80.
22400
Correlogram Map
1.1
0.72
22200
0.84
30.
22200
0.96
0.60
0.48
-20.
0.36
22000
22000
0.24
-70.
0.12
-70.
-20.
30.
YOU LOOK DOWN
80.
21800
-120.
varmap_2.eps
21800
-120.
21600
21600
0.0
varmap_3
Variogram value
Variogram map window size: 125.x125.x99.
0.
51
1.
52
93600
Lags
Which lags?
- The variogram is computed for 1 lag, 2 lag, etc.
- Choose a lag that is about the average spacing between two adjacent samples (may vary with direction).
- Choose a number of lags nlag such that:
nlag lag 1/2 deposit extent.
- May have to run several times the program with
different lags to account for clusters and rectangular sampling.
Which tolerance?
- The tolerance is usually 1/2 lag.
- Note: more tolerance implies more smoothing.
THE VARIOGRAM CROSS

Variogram values for short distance are most important,
but poorly sampled because of the sampling spacing.
It is often recommended to have some close space
drilling to better infer short scale variability.
Example from David (1977)
f.87
David (1977)
Better still is to drill close space DDH at several locations representative of the mineralization. Example:
Las Cristinas, 4 stars were drilled at different locations representative of the ore/waste mix.
Local Orientation of
Best Continuity
3m
f.88
53
55
54
56
FITTING VARIOGRAMS
The objective is to get the correct shape of the variogram, i.e.:
- absolute number for the ranges and the anisotropy
aspect ratios;
- relative number for the nugget and various structure sills.
It is always possible to re-scale the variogram variability
axis so that the sill equals the declustered variance if
needed.
Use the correlogram or the relative pairwise variogram.
Do not use variograms of the logs or the indicators, except for special types of kriging (lognormal or indicator
kriging).
Different variogram types may have similar ranges and
anisotropies, but have different sills.
= Do not mix a nugget from a correlogram and
a total sill from a relative pairwise variogram without
proper rescaling.
57
FITTING VARIOGRAMS
Choose a model (nested structures + anisotropy) that
fits in order of importance:
- Nugget and short distances:
- Down hole, close spaced drilling, and omnidirectional variograms.
- Intermediate distances, ranges and sill(s).
- Directional variograms.
BH variograms can be useful to improve fit for short
distances.
Do not fit experimental variogram values that:
- are computed with less than 30 pairs;
- correspond to distances exceeding 1/2 of the deposit length along the corresponding direction.
Often necessary to use two structures (plus a nugget)
to correctly fit short and longer scale variabilities.
58
FITTING VARIOGRAMS
The nugget is isotropic. If there appears to be an
anisotropic nugget, try to use a short scale structure to
take care of it.
The following can help to reduce erratic fluctuations:
- Cut-out or trim-down some outliers when computing the experimental variogram (but eventually
keep them for kriging);
- Delete some points from the variogram cloud for a
particular lag (if your software has this capacity).
- Use the correlogram.
Once the anisotropy aspect ratios are obtained, they can
eventually be increased to account for the smoothing
resulting from the tolerance on the directions (and on
the lags to a lesser degree).
59
60
VARIOGRAM: Summary
Variogram, Covariance Function
Variogram
Nh
1 X
[Z(xi + h) Z(xi )]2

(h) =
2Nh
i=1
FACT SHEET
Parameters: nugget, range, sill.

Models: nugget, spherical, exponential.
Covariance function: C(h) = C(0) (h).
Anisotropy: geometric.
Nested structures.
(h) = (1/2Nh )
P
[z(xi ) z(xi + h)]2
2
(h) = (1/2)E[ Z(x) Z(x + h) ]
C(h) = E[(Z(x)Z(x + h)] Z(x) Z(x+h)

(h) = C(0) C(h)
Practice
- Alternative variograms:
- Correlogram
- Relative pairwise variogram.
- Computing and fitting tips.
- In practice, tolerances have to be given on h.
Exercises:
1) Concept of spatial continuity;
2) Experimental variogram computation.
3) Variogram modeling.
61
62
63
64
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION
Content
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION: Exercise 13

Let the following sixteen 2 4m block Au grades (g/t).
Definitions
- Recovered tonnage and grade at a given cut-off
grade.
- Support: sample, block,...
- SMU: selective mining unit
Blocks versus samples
- Grade distributions, variances
- Impact of variance on recovered tons and grade.
Change of support corrections
- Affine correction
- Indirect lognormal correction
Example of block grade variance computation
Quick overview of dilution
2m
3.5
0.2
2.0
1.2
2.4
1.2
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.2
0.1
2.1
2.3
0.7
5.7
1.0
f147
4m
For the 2 4m blocks (dash lines), what are:

- the mean, variance, minimum and maximum value;
- the recovered proportion of ore (tonnage) and
grade given an economic 1.5 g/t cut-off, and
assuming perfect selection.
Same questions for 4 8m blocks (thick lines).
Comment your results.
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION: Blocks vs Samples
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION: Recoveries
A block grade is an average of many sample grades:
BLOCK GRADE MAP

BLOCK GRADE
DISTRIBUTION
Ns
1 X
zS (xi )
zV =
Ns i=1
fV(z)
where zV is the grade of block V and zS (xi ) are the Ns

grades of the samples located in V .
As a consequence, block grades are smoothed with respect to sample grades. This implies (Exercise 13):
- max(zV ) < max(zS )
- min(zV ) > min(zS )
but note that their averages are identical:
- mV = mS
Example:
f.132
Block V
tV(xi), zV(xi): tonnage and

grade of block V centered on xi
Assume:
- Constant SG
- T0 , the total tonnage (at zero cut-off)
Recovered tonnage TV (zc ) :
X
tV (xi )
or
Freq.
T0
zV (xi )>zc
SAMPLE "S" DISTRIBUTION
Var(ZV) < Var(ZS)

BLOCK "V" DISTRIBUTION
f.133
Grade
fV (z)dz
zc
Recovered quantity of metal QV (zc ):

Z +
X
zV (xi )tV (xi )
or
T0
zfV (z)dz
zc
zV (xi )>zc
max(zV) < max(zS)
mV = mS
QV (zc )
TV (zc )
Recovered grade GV (zc ) =

6
Apply a cut-off zc = zCut on the distributions.
1M COMPOSITES
FREQUENCY
Freq.
5M COMPOSITES
MEAN 1.373
STD. DEV 1.565
0.120
0.080
0.040
BLOCK "V"
DISTRIBUTION fV(z)
RECOVERIES
MEAN 1.360
STD. DEV 1.122
0.120
FREQUENCY
min(zS) < min(zV)
Grade (z)
cutoff
zc
0.080
0.040
a)
b)
0.000
0.000
0.0
SAMPLE "S"
DISTRIBUTION fS(z)
RECOVERIES
2.0
4.0
AU (G/T)
6.0
8.0
10.0
0.0
10x10X5M BLOCKS
2.0
4.0
AU (G/T)
6.0
8.0
10.0
MEAN 1.349
STD. DEV 1.010
0.120
FREQUENCY
f.134
Grade
0.080
0.040
c)
zcut
max(zV)
max(zS)
0.000
0.0
2.0
4.0
Au (G/T)
6.0
8.0
10.0
RECOVERED TONNAGE (%)
GV (zc ) 6= GS (zc )
0.0
d)
2.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
CUT-OFF GRADE (G/T)
2.0
RECOVERED GRADE (G/T)

0.0
AU G/T
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
70 80 90 100
PERCENT
10 20 30 40 50 60
1.5
QV (zc ) 6= QS (zc )
1.0
TV (zc ) 6= TS (zc )
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
e)
0.5
1.0
1.5
CUT-OFF GRADE (G/T)
2.0
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Recoverable tonnages, quantities of metal and grades

depend on the block size.
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10
0.0
1M COMPOSITES
5M COMPOSITES
10X10X5M BLOCKS
2.0
gwv_0010
1 and 5m sample composites are actual data. 10x10x5m

block values are simulated.
Note the differences in recovered tonnes and grades
between the 3 different support sizes.
8
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION: Distribution (1/3)

The block grade zv (x) is interpreted as a realization of
a random variable ZV (x).
The average of the distribution is the global average
(Exercise 14):

E ZV (x) = E Z(x) = m,
all x.
It can be shown that the variance of the distribution is

(Exercise 15):

V ar ZV (x) = V ar Z(x) (V, V ),
where

- V ar Z(x) is the variance of the point support
grades (i.e. of the sample grades);
- (V, V ) is the average variogram value between any
two points in the block V :
1
4,2 1,6
4
(V,V) =
1,8
7
V)
1 9 9
ij
81 i=1 j=1
9
f. 122
Notation

2
- Z
= V2 = V ar ZV (x)
V
9

Recall from Convention/Notation chapter:
j
ij = 11 + 12 + 13 +
21 + 22 + 23 +
31 + 32 + 33
2,1 2,2 2,3

3,1 3,2 3,3
f.150c

Note that as V %, (V, V ) %, and V ar ZV (x) &,
which is what is observed in practice.
The shape of the distribution is unknown!
Solution 1
- Assume that the block distribution can be obtained
from a reference distribution with some simple but
reasonable correction.
- The corrections are referred to as
change of support corrections.
- The reference distribution usually is the:
- Sample distribution,
- Estimated block distribution.
10

Solution 1 (contd.)
- Notes:
- This correction is done at the level of the distribution, not at the level of specific blocks or
samples.
- If the sample distribution is used as the reference distribution, it should be
declustered and properly trimmed.
Solution 2
- Use a much stronger model that provides the block
distribution from the sample distribution:
- multigaussian model;
- discrete gaussian model (Herco).
- This is the subject of non linear geostatistics.
Solution 3
- Use simulation.
11
1,1 1,2 1,3
12
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION: SMU

SMU: Smallest volume or block that is:
- Accepted as ore, or
- Rejected as waste at the time of mining.
SMU is a most important parameter for open pit.
- Different SMU size result in different recovered
tonnes and grade at a given cut-off grade.
SMU size:
- No simple formula;
- Needs to be established from an operational point
of view;
- Is a function of loading equipment type, size and
throughput.
- Reasonable guesses
- 1.5 equipment size (e.g., shovel bucket).
- Area covered by four blast holes for a 10,000
to 20,000 tonnes per day operation.
- Area covered by two blast holes for a more
selective operation.
For an actual operation, the SMU size should be based
on grade control results.
13
14
RECALL: Standardized Variable

Standardized random variables are often used in statistics. For example:
- Affine correction (e.g. sample to block grade distribution).
Standardizing consists in subtracting the mean from the
Standardizing
X mX
sX
1
ORIGINAL
DISTRIBUTION
X mX
2
0.0
m
X mX
X
STANDARDIZED
DISTRIBUTION
1.0
f.176
0.0
Mean and variance of a standardized random variable :

- Mean: 0
- Variance: 1
15
16
BLOCK DIST: Change of Support Correction
AFFINE CORRECTION 1/3

1
1
z R m
SAMPLE "R"
DISTRIBUTION
z R m
SAMPLE "R"
DISTRIBUTION
zR
zR
2
0.0
0.0
m
z R m
R
z V m
V
1.0
m
z R m
R
1.0
z V m
V
f.168a
f.168
0.0
0.0
BLOCK "V"
DISTRIBUTION
BLOCK "V"
DISTRIBUTION
z R m
R V
zV
z V m
zV
1
0.0
4
0.0
The block and reference distributions are assumed identical after:

1) Subtracting the mean;
2) Dividing by the standard deviation.
i.e. after standardization.
17
ID
East
North Elev
ZR
1
2
3
...
...
525
100.0
100.0
100.0
...
...
245.5
110.2
110.2
110.2
...
...
348.2
2.35
5.00
8.10
...
...
3.25
25.4
26.4
27.4
...
...
128.3
ZV
zV
z R m
R V + m
f.168b
18
The standardized distributions of the blocks and of the
reference values are assumed to be identical.
zV m
zR m
=
V
R
p
V
zV =
(zR m) + m = f (zR m) + m
R
where
- m is the average of both distributions;
- V and R are the standard deviations of the block
and
reference distributions;
- f = V /R is the STDV adjustment factor.
- f is also the CV adjustment factor.
- f is the variance adjustment factor.
Advantage:
- Simplicity.
Disadvantages:
- Can generate negative grades if f > 1.0.
- Can generate unrealistic distribution
shape for
large adjustment factors (e.g. if f < 80% or f <
0.7 from sample to block)
19
z R m
R V + m
20
3.41
5.00
6.86
...
...
3.95
INDIRECT LOGNORMAL CORRECTION
DISCRETE GAUSSIAN MODEL
Distributions are skewed. It is assumed that the change

of support affects them in a similar way as if they were
lognormal with same mean, but different variances.
Note that the two distributions do not have to be lognormal; just positively skewed.

b
zV = azR
#b
"
CV 2 + 1
m
a= p
m
f CV 2 + 1
s
ln(f CV 2 + 1)
b=
ln(CV 2 + 1)
Amec preferred change of support method for skewed

distribution.
HERCO program
Yet to come
CV is the coefficient of variation of reference data.

Advantage
- More realistic block distribution shapes, which get
more symmetrical as the variance is reduced.
Disadvantages
- More complex;
- Does not preserve the mean (because the populations are not lognormal), but can be easily corrected with an iterative procedure.
21
22

Let 10 Au sample values at centres of following blocks:
.1
.2
.7
.8
.9
1.2
2.0
2.4
3.5
5.7
with the following average and variance:

- mAu = 1.75 g/t
- s2Au = 2.74 (g/t)2
Assuming 3,000 tonnes per block, compute the
recovered tonnage, grade, and quantity of metal for
an economic 1.0 g/t cut-off grade.
The selective
mining units (SMU) variance is:
V ar ZSM U = 2.74 (SM U, SM U ) = 0.81
Using an affine correction, compute 10 equivalent SMU

grades corresponding to the 10 sample grades.
Repeat the recovery computation using the 10 SMU

grades.
23
24
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION
COMPUTING THE BLOCK VARIANCE
COMPUTING THE BLOCK VARIANCE
The key is caution! A wrong block variance can lead

to biased results. We know:

(h)
Var(Z(x))
f. 169
10 m
10
V)
50
(V,V) =
10 m
1 9 9
ij
81 i=1 j=1
The block variance depends on:

- In-situ variability, i.e. the declustered variance of
the sample or the total sill of the variogram.
- Short scale variability, i.e. nugget and variogram
values for short distances.
- The block (SMU) size.
A good estimate of the block variance requires:

- Computation to be done within an EDA envelope
- Computation to be done per geological domain
- Properly trimmed/declustered statistics
- A good estimate of the shape of the traditional
variogram, i.e.:
- Rescaled RLP variogram or correlogram such
that total sill is the same as declustered/
trimmed sample variance
- Same, but total sill rescaled to 1. The correction for the sample variance is then made at
the end of the computation.
Recommend to compute block coefficient of variation,
then block variance because:
- Often slight differences between sample and block
model average grades.
- Proportional effect and difference in means
= difference in variances.
- CVs are more robust.
25
26
27
28
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION: Example
Introduction
Sample Grade Variogram
All calculation
- Geology domain: Z50
- Within EDA envelope
2m composite statistics:
- Declustered, 40 g/t trimming
- msamp = 2.37 g/t,
- samp = 4.44, CVsamp = 1.87
Kriged block model:
- mblkmod = 2.30 g/t,
- blkmod = 2.10, CVblkmod = 0.92
- Kriged block model mean is OK
- What about selectivity/variability?
29
2m composite correlogram (sill=1):

- Model: 0.3 + 0.5*Exp(55,55,9) +
0.2*Exp(130,130,15)
Zone 50+60 - Correlogram - 2m Comps.
1.20
0.80
Variogram
Australian AU deposit:
- Sampled with a series of mostly vertical holes.
- 2m composites.
- SMU size
- 5x5x5m.
0.40
Within Plane : 0.3 + Exp(0.5,55.0) + Exp(0.2,130.0)
Cross Strike : 0.3 + Exp(0.5,9.0) + Exp(0.2,15.0)
0.00
0.
40.
80.
Distance
30

Computation
2m composite grade standardized variance:
- Use correlogram (sill=1)
- Variance = variogram sill = 1.0
Standardized 2m composite variance: 1.000
5x5x5m SMU grade standardized variance:
- Use correlogram (sill=1)
- Program geostat/gamval to get
V ar(Zsmu ) = V ar(Zsamp ) (smu, smu)
Standardized SMU variance: 0.443
Sample SMU adjustment factors for:

- Variance: f = 0.443/1.000
=
0.443
= 0.443 = 0.666
- Standard deviation: f
- Coefficient of variation: f = 0.666
5x5x5m SMU grade coefficient of variation:
- CVsmu = CVsamp 0.666 = 1.87 0.666 = 1.25
Kriged block model CV (cf. introduction):
- CVblkmod = 0.92, mush lower than 1.25
- Kriged block model probabbly too smoothed.
Only tip of the iceberg

- cf. Dilution case study of a Mexican AU deposit
on next pages.
31
32
120.
blockvar_variogram_1.ps
10000.
9000.
8000.
TONNAGE (tonne x 1,000)

5000.
6000.
7000.
0.0
0.
4.5
7461.
7800.
2.8
4730.
4602.
3520.
3301.
6.6
1.0
CUT-OFF (G/T)
3.0
0.5
6150.
5973.
0.
0.0
-4.3
1.20
1.15
0.5
1.40
1.34
0.5
1.64
-4.9
1.55
1.0
1.78
1.95
1.0
RECOVERED GRADE
1.5
1.5
0.
0.0
0.
0.0
0.1
-2.2
236.
242.
-3.3
1.0
201.
207.
1.0
CUT-OFF (G/T)
-0.9
0.5
268.
266.
0.5
1.5
1.5
-10
-10
-20
-20
0.2
Z*smu > Cutoff

Z*smu < Cutoff
Digging line
0.0
0.0
Waste to ore, etc.

0.4
Z8
Figure 7: Recovered tonnes, grades and ounces computed from the kriged block model, together with the true and estimated SMU grade
distributions.. The star symbols indicate the recoveries based on estimated SMU grades includingwith mining misclassification.
The bottom graphs are percent differences with respect to the kriged block model.
2/3 Misclassification rules: 0.3 g/t cutoff (10.3/3.3%), 0.5 g/t cutoff (9.7/4.3%), 0.7 g/t cutoff (9.1/5.3%), 1.0 g/t cutoff (9.0/5.7%)
ESTIMATED SMU DISTRIBUTION
-20
SELECTION + MISCLASSIFICATION (EST. SMU)
-10
TRUE SMU DISTRIBUTION
CUT-OFF (G/T)
-9.1
10
-3.8
2000.20
1.5
287.
-10
RECOVERED QTY MET.
Z7
KRIGED MODEL
0.
0.0
20 0.5
4000.
1.5
10
10
1.0
0.5 20
3000.
2.5
2.0
GRADE (G/T)
1.5
300.
QUANTITY OF METAL (ounce x 1,000)
200.
250.
20 150.
10
35
3000.
202000.
4000.
10
5000.
10
1.0
% DIFF.
6000.
1.0
7000.
% DIFF.
8000.
% DIFF.
0.5
Z5
Z6
Zsmu
Z9
4) Accidental misclassification
Ore truck to waste dump, etc.
33
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
TRUE SMU GRADE (AU G/T)
Z4
0.6
1.6
Grade
3) Digging limits smoothed

1.8
2.0
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
ESTIMATED SMU GRADE (AU G/T)
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Est Grade >= 0.5 g/t

Est Grade < 0.5 g/t
Fringe Waste to Mill
Fringe Ore to Waste
0.5 g/t Cutoff
34
DILUTION:
Recovered Tonnes and Grades
36
0.0
0.
0.0
0.2
1.5
Z3
0.4
2.0
150. 20
Z2
0.6
9000.
200.
Z1
0.8
Estimation Error: 40% --- Misclassification: 2/3 of the rules
SMU
1.0
10000.
250.
-20
Error = Z*smu Zsmu
-10
Z*smu = iZi
-20
i=1
Estimation variance
Good sampling procol
Good estimation method
0.0
1.2
2.5
Sample
1.4
RECOVERED TONNAGE
f.186
1.6
300.
Freq.
1.8
2) SMU grades not perfectly known
-10
Block variance
-20
1) Mine SMUs, not sample grades

2.0
KRIGED MODEL vs. MISCLASSIFICATION --- 7x7x7m SMUs
DILUTION: Sources
DILUTION:
True vs. Est. SMUs + Misclassification
ESTIMATED vs. TRUE 7x7x7m SMU GRADES
Cutoff = 0.5 g/t - Estimation error: 40% - Dilution: 9.7/4.3% rule
dil_scat+misc.eps
DILUTION: Solutions?
Getting the Variance
Grade Distributions
1) Compute the variance of the true SMU grades and:

- Use it to assess the diluted resources; or
- Assume that the diluted grades are somewhat
smoother than the `actual grades.
- Rule of thumb:
- 5 to 10% smoother for STDV or CV.
= Fast but simplistic. Does not fully account for
mining dilution.
3) Compute diluted grade distribution by:

- Computing variance as in 1 or 2.
- Assuming shape of distribution (sample or estimated grade distribution)
- Correcting for change of support:
- Indirect Lognormal Correction
- Herco.
= Result is global and not local.
2) Compute the variance of the estimated SMU grades at

the time of grade control.
= Better than 1) because it accounts for the fact that
the SMU grades are not perfectly known.
37
38
Estimation
Simulation
4) Traditional kriging:
- Compute variance as in 1 or 2.
- Kriging method:
a) OK - Ordinary kriging
b) (M)IK - (Multiple) indicator kriging
- Calibrate sample search such that the required
variance is reproduced.
- Recovered tonnes and grades are conputed from
estimated block grades.
= Relatively simple but result in a sacrifice of precision/accuracy for the sake of variability/selectivity.
5) Special Kriging:
- Compute variance as in 1 or 2.
- Kriging method:
a) MIK - Multiple Indicator kriging,
b) UC - Uniform Conditioning
= Better than 4) but more complex.
- Sensitive to the variance.
- Check that local estimates reproduce
global recoveries.
39
6) Collect mining misclassification statistics from analog

deposit then:
- Simulate true vs estimated SMU grade scattergram
and identify misclassified SMU based on analog
statistics.
- Generate estimated SMU grade recovery curve and
apply a mining correction factor based on misclassification statistics.
= Result is global and not local.
7) Simulate grade + mining method.
- Best and preferred solution for new deposits.
- Can incorporate misclassification statistics.
40
Use Reconciliation
8) Reconcile against an existing grade control model.
- Should always be considered for existing operation.
- Note that a traight calibration to reconciliation results may hide poor operation practice.
41
42
43
44
DILUTION: Simulation + Diglines
Simulated Grade Control - 10x10x10m SMUs - 2 g/t COG

76000
Simulated Grade Control - 10x10x10m SMUs - No Diglines - 2 g/t COG

76500
76000
76500
76000
76500
20
20.
10
Ore
2.
1
Waste
95000
94500
94500
94500
95000
94500
76000
95000
95000
0
0.
76500
45
46
DILUTION: Double Dip?
Simulated Grade Control - 10x10x10m SMUs - Diglines - 2 g/t COG

76000
76500
Mining Engineers sometimes do a connectivity analysis of the resource block model (Open pit)
- Isolated Waste blocks as switched to Ore
- Isolated Ore blocks as switched to Waste
O
W
f186b
94500
94500
95000
95000
76000
47
76500
WAMO
Ore Loss
Note 1
- Connectivity analysis principle is OK, but
- Does not seem right to apply it on a smoothed
block model, the connectivity of which can be very
different from reality.
- OK to apply on simulated Grade Control type of
model
Solution 7 above
Note 2
- Potential for double dilution
- At the resource estimation stage, and
- At the reserve estimation stage.
Check with Mining Engineering to avoid
double dilution
48
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION: Summary
FACT SHEET
Block Variance
Definition of recoveries.
V ar(Blocks) < V ar(Samples).
Recoveries on blocks are different from recoveries based
on samples.

SMU: selective mining unit.

When computing recoveries, it is important to use the
correct grade distribution, i.e. the correct SMU size.
Change of support correction:
- Affine correction.
- Indirect lognormal correction.
How to compute the block variance
- Not robust. Caution!
- Example.
Dilution
49
50
ESTIMATION ERROR
Content
Example of estimation methods
- Polygonal (nearest Neighbour)
- Inverse distance to power
- Sectional
- Longitudinal
Error of estimation
- Example
- Confidence interval
- Point estimation
- Block estimation
ESTIMATION METHOD
Polygonal / Nearest Neighbour
ESTIMATION METHOD
Inverse Distance to Power
z3
d3
z2
d1
z1
f. 180
zv(x0) = ?
f.179
The grade at a given location is the grade of the nearest

sample.
Procedure:
1) Draw polygon of influence of each sample;
2) Estimated grade (thickness) of polygon is grade
(thickness) of central sample.
Advantage: Simplicity
Disadvantages:
- Discontinuity between estimates;
- Only one sample per estimate;
- Estimates too variable (= biased recoveries).
5
ESTIMATION METHOD
Sectional
f. 181
Procedure:
- Estimated block grade is weighted average of the
surrounding sample grades.
zV (x0 ) =
1
z
d1 1
1
d1
+
+
1
z +
d2 2
1
+
d2
di is distance between sample i and block V .

- Denominator Sum of ID weights = 1
Advantage:
- Much better than polygonal.
Disadvantages:
- Do not account for anisotropy, clusters, etc.
6
ESTIMATION METHOD
Sectional
Procedure:
1) Compute weighted average grade of each mineralized DDH intersection;
2) Project mineralized intersection grade mid-way
towards adjacent DDH intersections (same vertical
section);
3) Compute weighted average grade of mineralized
zone within vertical section;
4) Project mineralized zone grade mid-way towards
adjacent vertical sections;
5 Compute weighted average grade of 3D mineralized
envelope.
Advantages
- Can be done on intricate shapes.
Disadvantages
- Not flexible; often done manually, once for all;
- Steps 2) and 4) have a polygonal flavour;
- Lose track of grade distribution within mineralized
envelope or stope.
ESTIMATION METHOD
ESTIMATION METHOD
Longitudinal
Longitudinal
1
2
f. 182
G, T
7.2
3.2
Procedure:
1) Choose a vertical section parallel to general strike
of the ore zone. This is the longitudinal section.
2) Compute weighted average grade (G) of each mineralized DDH intersection.
3) Compute horizontal thickness (T) of each mineralized DDH intersection, perpendicular to the longitudinal section.
4) Project mid point of each mineralized DDH intersection on longitudinal section. Associate to each
projected point its mineralized grade and horizontal thickness. Compute GT, the grade times thickness (accumulation).
5) Estimate T and GT on the longitudinal section
using inverse distance or kriging. G = GT /T .
Advantages
- Simplify problem from 3D to 2D.
Disadvantages
- None if polygonal method is not used to estimate
G and GT .
10
11
12
ESTIMATION ERROR: Example (1/4)

Mean of the Error
z(x+h) is known
The error er is interpreted as a realization of a RV Er :

Er = Z (x) Z(x) = Z(x + h) Z(x)
z(x) = ?
Recall:
f. 22
E(X + Y ) = E(X) + E(Y )

Suppose that:
- The value z(x) (Au g/t) at location x is unknown
- The value z(x + h) a distance h apart is the only
known value
- A reasonable estimate of z(x) is:
z (x) = z(x + h)
The mean of Er is:

E(Er ) = E Z(x + h) Z(x)

= E Z(x + h) E Z(x)

= 0, if E Z(x) = m, for all x (stationarity)
= The estimate of Z(x) is unbiased.
The estimation error, er , is:

er = z (x) z(x) = z(x + h) z(x)
The error er is unknown, unless location x is sampled.
13
14
Variance of the Error
If the error Er is normally distributed:
The error: Er = Z (x) Z(x) = Z(x + h) Z(x)

2
Er N (M ean = 0, V ar. = E
= 2(h))
Recall:
V ar(X) = E(X 2 ) [E(X)]2
2 i
1 h
(h) = E Z(x) Z(x + h)
2
gE(x)
The variance of Er is:
f.50

2
2
E(Er )
2
V ar(Er ) = Er
= E Er

= E Er2 , since E(Er ) = 0

2
= E Z(x) Z(x + h)
34%
E
34%
+E
= 2(h)
= The variance of the error can be predicted if the

variogram is known.
Shape of Error Distribution
Unknown
Sometimes assumed to be normal
15

P rob E Er +E = 68%

P rob 2E Er +2E = 95%
Confidence intervals on the estimate can be

obtained.
- 68% CI: Z(x) Z (x) E
- 95% CI: Z(x) Z (x) 2E
16
ESTIMATION ERROR: Point (1/4)
z(x3)

The error er is a realization of RV Er :
N
X
Er =
i Z(xi ) Z(x0 )
z(x2)
i=1
z(x1)
i=1
N
X
X
N
=E
A linear estimate of z(x0 ) is:

z (x0 ) =
X
N
E(Er ) = E
f. 23
z(x0) = ?
The mean of Er is:
i=1
i z(xi ),
X
N
i=1
i=1
where N is the number of samples, [i , i = 1, . . . , N ] are

the N estimation weights.
The error of estimation er is:
N
X
er = z (x0 ) z(x0 ) =
i z(xi ) z(x0 )
i=1
X
N
i=1
N
hX
i=1
= 0,

i Z(xi ) Z(x0 )

i Z(xi ) E Z(x0 )

i E Z(xi ) E Z(x0 )

i m m,

if E Z(x) = m, all x
i
i 1 m
if
N
X
i = 1
i=1
17
18
It can be shown that the variance of Er is:

V ar(Er ) = 2
N
X
i 0i
i=1
N X
N
X
i j ij ,
i=1 j=1
where:
- 0i : variogram value between location x0 to
be estimated, and location xi
- ij :variogram val. between locations xi and xj
V ar(Er ) = 2
13
i 0i
N X
N
X
i j ij ,
i=1 j=1
Suppose that there is only one sample (N = 1). Then:
z(x2)
23
N
X
i=1
V ar(Er ) = 2
z(x3)
03
The variance of Er is:
1
X
i 0i
i=1
1 X
1
X
i j ij ,
i=1 j=1
V ar(Er ) = 21 01 1 1 11 ,
12
02
z(x1)
01
f. 23a
z(x0) = ?
Recall from Convention/Notation chapter:
where
- 1 = 1 (estimation weight is 1.0 if only 1 sample).
- 01 = (h), where h is the distance between the
location to be estimated and the sample.
- 11 = (0) = 0
Therefore:
j
1,1 1,2 1,3
2,1 2,2 2,3
V ar(Er ) = 2 1 (h) 1 1 0 = 2(h)
3,1 3,2 3,3
ijij =
1111 + 1212 + 1313 +
2121 + 2222 + 2323 +
3131 + 3232 + 3333
f.150b
19
as in the initial example.

20
ESTIMATION ERROR: Exercise 17

Suppose the following situation, where a point at location 0 has to be estimated from 2 sample values located 2m away along the best (0 1) and worst (0 2)
geological continuity directions.
Best Continuity
2m
f.141
1
2m
The variogram model is a nugget plus an anisotropic

spherical structure:
ESTIMATION ERROR: Exercise 17 (cont)

What are the estimation variances for the following estimates:
- Polygonal estimate using Sample 1 only
- 1 = 1, 2 = 0
- 1 = 0, 2 = 1
- 1/d2 estimate using both samples
- 1 = 2 = 0.5
- Your own intuitive choice of weights
- 1 and 2 of your choice
- Comment your results.
Hint 1: All variogram values have been computed for
you.
(h) = 0.2 + S(C = 0.8; R01 = 10m, R02 = 5m)

From this model, the following variogram values can
be computed.
- 0,1 = 0.44
- 0,2 = 0.65
- 1,2 = 2,1 = 0.70
- 1,1 = 2,2 = 0
Hint 2: Estimation variance if ONE sample only, say

sample i:
V ar(Er ) = 2(h) = 20i
22
21
Hint 3: For more than one sample, use the point estimation variance formula:
V ar(Er ) = 2
N
X
i 0i
i=1
N X
N
X
i j ij ,
i=1 j=1
where
- 0i : variogram value between location x0 to be estimated, and location xi
- ij : variogram val. between locations xi and xj
N in the formula above is the number of samples.
Hint 4: For TWO samples, say samples 1 and 2,
the formula above can be reduced to:

V ar(Er ) =2 1 01 + 2 02

1 1 11 + 1 2 12 +

2 1 21 + 2 2 22
23
24
ESTIMATION ERROR
ESTIMATION ERROR
In a previous exercise
Exercise solution
Au
2
1.20
2m
Best Continuity
1.15
Std.Dev.
of Error
Poly 2
f.141a
?
2m
1.10
Au
1
1.05
1.00
* = W x Au + W x Au
Au0
1
1
2
2
0.95
0.90
0.85
Error Distributions
Poly 1
"Best"
Intuitive
ID2
f.152
0.80
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
Estimation Weights
A bit
better
Worst
Even
better
f.152a
Poly 2
Au0* = 0 x Au1 + 1 x Au2
Poly 1
Au0* = 1 x Au1 + 0 x Au2
W2 (Sample 2)
W1 (Sample 1)
Average, ID
Au0* = 0.5 x Au1 + 0.5 x Au2
Best estimate is that one that minimizes spread of the

error (or the standard deviation).
Kriging.
The variogram can be used to compute the spread

variance, standard deviation of the estimation error.
25
26
27
28
ESTIMATION ERROR: Block (1/3)

The error er,V is a realization of RV Er,V :
z(x3)
z(x2)
Er,V =
N
X
i Z(xi ) ZV (x0 )
i=1
z(x1)
V)
It can be shown that the mean of Er,V is:
f. 120
E(Er,V ) =
zv(x0) = ?
i=1
= 0,
A linear estimate of zV (x0 ) of the block V is:

N
X
zV (x0 ) =
i z(xi ),
where N is the number of samples, [i , i = 1, . . . , N ] are

the N estimation weights.
The error of estimation er is:
N
X
i z(xi ) zV (x0 )
i=1
29
V ar(Er,V ) = 2
N
X
i (V, i)
i=1
V)
3,i
4,2 1,6
4
(V,V) =
1,8
7
V)
f. 121
1 9 9
ij
81 i=1 j=1
9
f. 122
Notes:
- Actual variogram values are integrals;
- ii = (h = 0) = 0, but for the above computation,
ii = (h 0+ ) = C0 (nugget) is used for a correct
approximation of the integrals.
31
N X
N
X
i j ij (V, V )
where:
- (V, i): average variogram value between location
xi and the block to be estimated.
- (V, V ): average variogram value within block V .
- ij : variogram value between locations xi and xj
30
9
(V,i) = 1 ki
k=1
9
5,i
8,i
i = 1
i=1 j=1
Average variogram values:

2
if
N
X
It can be shown that the variance of Er,V is:
i
i 1 m
i=1
i=1
er,V =
N
hX
32
ESTIMATION ERROR: Remarks (1)
ESTIMATION ERROR: Remarks (2)
The estimation variance of any linear estimate (polygonal, 1/d2 , etc.) can be computed if the variogram is
known.
The estimation variance is as good as the model itself.

Errors in the model (wrong geology, variogram, etc.)
are not reflected in the estimation variance.
The variance does not depend on the sample values, i.e.

can be computed prior to infill drilling.
A good estimate of the traditional variogram is necessary. If the variogram has a total sill, its value should
be close to the declustered variance.
The block shape can be irregular, though it is regular

in most programs for reason of simplicity.
The easiest way to compute estimation variances is to
use a specific program. Charts, however, can also be
used.
If a correlogram or a relative pairwise variogram has

been fitted, be sure to re-scale it properly before computing the estimation variances.
If the variogram has not been rescaled (sill = declustered variance), the estimation variance can still be used
as a precision index, but should not be used for confidence intervals.
33
34
35
36
RELATIVE ESTIMATION ERROR

Variance of the error:
- Depends on sample locations, not on sample values.
- This is wrong when there is a proportional effect.
Solution
- Use the relative estimation variance
2
rel
which is provided by the relative variogram or
a properly rescaled correlogram.
- Still a rough approximation
Traditional variogram, relative variogram, correlogram
- Same shape, different sills.
2
2
(h)
(h)
rel(h)=
m2

Relative estimation variance
2
rel
- The traditional estimation variance is:
2
2
Er
= rel
m2
m is the local average of the variable.

Usually m is the local estimated value.
Relative standard deviation
p
2
- rel = rel
Example
- Estimated grade is 4 g/t Au
- rel = 0.3 = 30%
2rel = 60%
- 95% CI on grade
- 4 g/t Au 60%
- 4 (0.6 4) = 4 2.4 g/t Au
m2
(h)
f14a
Range
37
38

Solution using the correlogram
REL. ESTIMATION ERROR: Exercise 18

First compute:
1.1 - Declustered mean mDecl
1.2 - Declustered variance s2Decl
1.3 - Correlogram or relative pairwise variogram.
Rescale sill to 1.
Then get the relative estimation variance by computing:
2.1 - Estimate z (x0 )
2
2.2 - Standardized estimation variance, cor
, using the
correlogram or the rlp variogram fitted in 1.3
2.3 - Traditional estimation variance:
2
2
Er
= cor
s2Decl
2.4 - Relative estimation variance:
2
2
rel
= Er
/m2Decl
Let the following 2m composite statistics:

- Mean: mDecl = 2.0 g/t
- Variance: s2Decl = 16.0
A 10x10x5m block is estimated with the following results:
- Estimated value: zB
= 5 g/t
2
- Estimation variance from correlogram: cor
= 0.04
i.e. the standardized estimation variance.
What is:
2
- The relative estimation variance rel
?
- A 95% confidence interval on the block estimated
value?
Finally get the 95 % confidence interval as:

z(x0 ) = z (x0 ) 2Er
z(x0 ) = z (x0 ) 2rel z (x0 )
39
40
ESTIMATION ERROR: Summary

The mean of the error is zero if the sum of the estimation
weights is one.
The variance of the error:
- Is known if the variogram is known.
- Does not depend on the values of the samples,
hence can be computed before infill drilling.
- Depends on the sample locations with respect to
the block to be estimated, and on the block size.
FACT SHEET
Estimation Variance
V ar(Er ) = 2
PN
i=1
i (V, i)
Confidence intervals on the estimate:

- Can be obtained by assuming the shape of the error
distribution.
- Can depend on data values if the relative estimation variance is used.
The shape of the error distribution:
- Is unknown.
- Is often assumed to be normal as a rough
approximation.
A variogram with the correct sill must be used in the
computation.
41
42
43
44
PN PN
i=1
(V, V
j=1 i j ij
KRIGING: Content
Review of estimation error
Definitions
- Kriging
- Kriging variance (estimation variance)
Various krigings:
- Ordinary Kriging (OK)
- Simple kriging (SK)
- Co-kriging (CoK)
Practice of kriging
- When to use it
- Sample search
- Block size
Discussion
- Pros and cons
KRIGING: Estimation Error Review
KRIGING: Estimation Error Review
In a previous exercise
Exercise solution
Au
2
1.20
2m
Best Continuity
1.15
Std.Dev.
of Error
Poly 2
f.141a
?
2m
1.10
Au
1
1.05
1.00
* = W x Au + W x Au
Au0
1
1
2
2
0.95
0.90
0.85
Error Distributions
Poly 1
"Best"
Intuitive
ID2
f.152
0.80
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
Estimation Weights
A bit
better
Worst
Even
better
f.152a
Poly 2
Au0* = 0 x Au1 + 1 x Au2
Poly 1
Au0* = 1 x Au1 + 0 x Au2
W2 (Sample 2)
W1 (Sample 1)
Average, ID
Au0* = 0.5 x Au1 + 0.5 x Au2
Best estimate is that one that minimizes spread of the

error (or the standard deviation).
Kriging.
The variogram can be used to compute the spread

variance, standard deviation of the estimation error.
KRIGING - Recall
Minima / Maxima (1 variable)
Definition
A minimum/maximum of a function f(x) is where the
slope of the tangent to the function is zero.
KRIGING - Recall
Minima / Maxima (2 variable)
Example
z=f(x,y)
Tgt Slope = 0
Tgt Slope = 0
Example
y = f(x)
Slope of Tangent = 0
f(x)
b
f123a
x1
x2
a
(a,b,0)
Notes
- The slope of the tangent of the function at location
x is given by the derivative of the function.
- A minimum/maximum is obtained when the
derivative = 0.
Notes
- A minimum/maximum is obtained when two
(partial) derivatives = 0.
- If N variables, then N partial derivatives.
10
KRIGING - Recall
Minima / Maxima under constraint
Example
z
f(x,y) = x2 + y2
such that:
x=1
f(x,y)=x2 + y2
f125a
x
y
Constrained Minimum
Free Minimum
Notes
- If 2 variables + 1 constraint
3 derivatives must be zero.
- If N variables + 1 constraint
(N+1) derivatives must be zero.
11
x
f124a
12
KRIGING IS BLUE
A linear estimator:
KRIGING IS BLUE
Unbias condition:
ZV (x0 ) = 0 +
N
X
i Z(xi ),
i=1
E(Er ) = 0 +
i=1
where 0 is a shift factor, normally set to 0.

Unbiased, i.e. the mean of the error is 0:

E(Er ) = E ZV (x0 ) ZV (x0 ) = 0

= E ZV (x0 ) E ZV (x0 )
h
i
X

= E 0 +
i Z(xi ) E ZV (x0 )
X

= 0 +
i E Z(xi ) E ZV (x0 )
X
= 0 +
i m m = 0

where m = E Z(x) = E ZV (x) , for all locations x.
Best, i.e. the spread of the error is minimized:

V ar(Er ) = 2
N
X
i (V, i)
i=1
N
N X
X
i j ij (V, V )
i=1 j=1
is minimized
The Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (B.L.U.E.)

13
15
N
hX
i
i 1 m = 0
- Easily solved with conditions on the weights.

Minimizing the estimation variance:
V ar(Er ) = 2
N
X
i (V, i)
i=1
N X
N
X
i j ij (V, V )
i=1 j=1
- Classical problem in calculus;

- Solved by equating all partial derivatives to 0;
- Because the minimum is not free (condition on the
weights), an additional Lagrange parameter is introduced.
Remarks:
- Other methods such as polygonal and 1/d2 also are
unbiased linear estimator;
- Kriging is a good estimator. It is called best because
it minimizes the estimation variance. However, criteria other than the variance could be chosen.
14
16
ORDINARY KRIGING (1)

Ordinary kriging (OK) is used when the mean of the
variable is constant, but unknown.
A linear estimator:
ZV (x0 ) =
N
X
i Z(xi )
i=1

E(Er ) =
N
hX
i 1 m = 0
i=1

where m = E Z(x) , for all locations x.
N
X
ORDINARY KRIGING (2)

Minimum variance
of equations
1 11 +2 12
1 21 +2 22
..
..
.
.
+
2 N2
1 N1
1
+2
obtained by solving linear system

+
+
..
.
+N 1N
+N 2N
..
.
+
+
..
.
= V,1
= V,2
..
.
+ +N NN
+
+N
= V,N
=1
where
- is the Lagrange parameter, required by the
constraint on the weights i .
- ij is the variogram value between samples i and j
- V,i is the average value between block V and sample i.
i = 1
i=1

V ar(Er ) = 2
N
X
i (V, i)
i=1
N X
N
X
i j ij (V, V )
i=1 j=1
is minimized
A Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (B.L.U.E.)

17
ORDINARY KRIGING (3): Advantages

Kriging is a good estimator because it chooses its
weights according to the:
- Geological spatial correlation (as quantified by the
variogram);
- Internal sample configuration (i,j );
- Sample configuration with the block to be estimated (
(V, i)), together with the block size.
Kriging is an automatic declustering technique.
Kriging obeys the geological model as build in the block
model:
- various geological domains with different spatial
correlations;
- hard/soft boundaries;
- anisotropy model that can vary locally.
19
18
ORDINARY KRIGING (4): Kriging Variance

The estimation variance or kriging variance, is:
2
K,V
=2
N
X
i=1
N
X
i (V, i)
N X
N
X
i j ij (V, V )
i=1 j=1
i (V, i) + (V, V )
i=1
+/- ??
- The sign of in front of depends on the way
the kriging system is written.
- The formulas as in Journel and
Huijbregts (1978) are being used here.
The kriging variance depends on the:
- Continuity of the mineralization;
- Sample configuration;
- Sample/block configuration;
- Geometry of the estimated block.
= The kriging variance is a good precision index that
can be used for resource classification.
The kriging variance does not depend on the sample
values. A relative kriging variance would be better for
confidence intervals (Section Estimation Error).
20
KRIGING: Exercise 19
Let the following situation of a point being estimated
using 4 samples:
4
x
1
2
3
4
z(x)
1
2.5
1.9
3.0
0.1m
2
3
3m
Geological Continuity
good
bad
f.126
0?
z (x0 ) =
6m
4
X
i z(xi )
i=1
What are the weights and corresponding estimated

grades for the following methods:
- polygonal (nearest neighbour)
- 1/d
- your intuition
Comment the pros and cons of each method.
Knowing that the variogram is:
(h) = 0.05 + 0.95 Sph(Rx = 10m, Ry = 5m)
What are the kriged weights and the kriged estimate?
Comment the results.
21
23
22
24
SIMPLE KRIGING (1)
SIMPLE KRIGING (2)
Simple kriging (SK) is used when the mean of the variable is constant and known.
A linear estimator:
ZV (x0 ) = 0 +
N
X
1 11
1 21
.
..
1 N1
i Z(xi ),
i=1
where 0 is a shift factor.
N
hX
i=1
+2 12
+2 22
..
.
+
+
+2 N2
+N 1N
+N 2N
..
..
.
.
+N NN
= V,1
= V,2
..
.
= V,N
No Lagrange parameter because no constraint on

the weight.

E(Er ) = 0 +
Minimum variance obtained by solving linear system

of equations
i
i 1 m = 0
hP
i
N
0 =
i=1 i 1 m
No constraint on the weights i

V ar(Er ) = 2
N
X
i (V, i)
i=1
N
N X
X
i j ij (V, V )
i=1 j=1
is minimized
Another Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (B.L.U.E.)

25
26
CO-KRIGING
RANDOM KRIGING
Co-kriging (CoK) can be used when:

- the variable to be estimated is under-sampled with
respect to another one;
- both variables are correlated.
Random kriging (RK) is an estimation technique that

incorporates surveyed and not fully surveyed drill holes
(down hole surveys).
BH/DDH co-kriging:
Random
Kriging
BH
DDH
f.170
Block
Search
f.153

ZV (x0 ) =
N
ddh
X
ddh,i Z(xddh,i ) +
i=1
E(Er) = 0
if
Expected Hole
Trace
N
bh
X
Cone of
Uncertainty
bh,j Z(xbh,j )
j=1
N
ddh
X
ddh,i = 1,
i=1
N
bh
X
bh,j = 0
j=1
- Minimize variance subject to 2 conditions

2 Lagrange parameters
- Need auto- and cross-variograms, i.e.:
ddh (h), bh (h), ddh,bh (h)
CoK is not limited to 2 variables.
27
Useful to evaluate properties for which surveying problems were encountered at the time of drilling.
Notes:
- the term random relates to the un-surveyed drill
hole samples which have a random component in
their locations;
- An interesting application.
28
PRACTICE OF OK
When to use it
- Mineralization well behaved, i.e.:
- Relatively low coefficient of variation ( 2 ?)
- Outliers can be dealt with by trimming
- Same anisotropy for all grade intervals
Alternative is indicator kriging (IK)
- More demanding
Pay attention to
- Variogram
- Already discussed
- Sample search
- One of the most important parameter besides
the variogram
- Block/SMU size
- Block discretization
29
PRACTICE OF OK: Sample Search (1/2)

Search is defined by:
- An ellipsoid size and orientation.
- Additional conditions on the samples within the
ellipsoid.
Ellipsoid size:
- Depends on the number of samples.
- Could be up to ellipse of variogram ranges, or more.
- Porgera: distances corresponding to 90% of variogram sills.
Ellipsoid orientation:
- Along anisotropy directions.
Ellipsoid spllited into quadrants/octants:
- For better distribution of samples around location
to be estimated.
30
PRACTICE OF OK: Sample Search (2/2)

Additional search parameters
- Maximum number of samples per octant, e.g. 2/4.
- Minimum number of informed holes, e.g. 2.
- Only 1 hole may create polygonal artifact.
- Minimum number of informed octants, e.g. 2.
Remarks:
- # of samples &, variability %, precision &.
- Composite length &, variability %.
- A huge search is not always better because model
hypothesis may be over-stretched.
- Sometimes necessary to sacrifice some precision to
increase variability of the block model
(cf. Sections Block distribution and Validation).
- Multi-step kriging, e.g.:
1 - Normal search.
2 - Extended search to fill block model
31
32
PRACTICE OF OK: Block Size (1/2)

Two types of block size:
- Block model cell size.
- SMU size.
- The two can be different!
Most of the time:
- Poor estimates for blocks much smaller than
average sample spacing.
- SMUs are much smaller than sample spacing.
Traditional solution:
- Block model is based on large blocks, e.g. 25x25m
for a 50x50m grid. Model is smoothed.
- Global recovered tonnes and grades are computed
from the large block grade distribution corrected
for smoothing,
(cf. Sections Block distribution and Simulation).
Non linear geostatistics:
- Block model is based on large panels with
perhaps one hole per panel on average.
- Local recovered tonnes and grade are computed by:
- MIK: Multiple indicator kriging
- DK: Disjunctive kriging
- UC: Uniform conditioning.
33
PRACTICE OF OK: Block Size (2/2)

A simple compromise:
- Block model cell size is either:
- SMU size, e.g. 7.5x7.5m for a 50x50m grid.
- Small enough to accommodate geology.
- Search parameters are adjusted so that resulting
block model is representative of:
- SMU actual grade variability, and
- Future mining dilution
(cf. Sections Block distribution and Dilution).
= Sacrifice of local precision for sake of variability.
= Correct if precise estimates available later for grade
control (e.g. BH samples).
34
PRACTICE OF OK: Block Discretization

This is the discretization of the blocks necessary to compute the average variogram values (right hand side of
the kriging systems).
2D situation
- Large block: NX NY = 3 3 to 5 5
- Smaller SMU: NX NY = 2 2 to 3 3
3D situation
- Discretization along vertical axis depends on composite length.
- NZ Comp Length Block DZ
Example
- Block DX, DY, DZ = 10, 10, 10m
- Composite length = 5m (+/- vertical)
- NX, NY, NZ = 4, 4, 2
35
36
PRACTICE OF OK
Global vs. conditional bias
Kriging is conditionally biased
Implication for
- Resource block model
- Biased recovered tonnes and grade
- Grade Control block model
- Mining misclassification
How to minimize conditional bias
- Sparse drilling
- Restricted search neighbourhood
- Calibrated for SMU variability
- Large search neighbourhood combined with
panel/smu correction of support
- Dense drilling (grade control)
- Local precision is most important
- Kriging efficiency
- Kriging regression slope
PRACTICE OF OK: Conditional Bias

Conditional bias
- The estimate on the left is conditionally unbiased.
- The estimate on the right is conditionally biased.
45o
Zv
Regression Line
E(Z v| Z*v)
Perfect estimates (zero error) are globally and locally

unbiased.
- Is improving local precision the solution?
Local precision can be improved by increasing:
- the block size; and/or
- the number of samples in the search.
This, however increases the smoothing, which is:
- Not OK if sparse grid of samples
- Significant over-smoothing, resulting in biased
estimates of recovered tonnes and grade
- OK if dense grid of samples
- No significant over-smoothing
Reducing conditional bias
- Sparse drilling
- Resource estimation
- cf. PRACTICE OF OK: Block Size
- Dense drilling
- Grade control
- Kriging neibourhood analysis to achieve kriging efficiency
39
Regression Line
E(Z v| Z*v)
Z*v
No Conditional Bias
Z*v
Conditional Bias
f191a
Conditional unbias is needed to ensure that:

- what is produced is what is predicted.
- i.e. true grades sent to mill are on average the
same as the estimated grades.
Global unbias (sum of weights = 1) does not entail
conditional unbias.
= All linear estimates are conditionally biased.
= OK is conditionally biased.
37
PRACTICE OF OK: Conditional Bias
45o
Zv
38
PRACTICE OF OK: Kriging Efficiency

Recall
Block grade variance

V2 = V ar ZV (x) = V ar Z(x) (V, V )
Estimation variance (OK)
2
K,V
=
N
X
i (V, i) + (V, V )
i=1
Variance of estimated blocks (OK)

2
+ 2
V2 = V ar(ZV ) = V ar(ZV ) KV
+/- ??
- The sign of in front of depends on the way the
kriging system is written.
- The formulas as in Journel and Huijbregts (1978)
are being used here.
40

Example
Kriging Efficiency
1.0
0.8
V2
2
K,V
V
V2
KEV
KRV
0.6
Block Variance
Block Distribution
Kriging Variance
Kriging
Lagrange Parameter
Kriging
2
V2 K,V
+ 2|V |
2
2
100(V K,V
)/V2
2
2
(V K,V + |V |)/V2
(h)=0.3 + 0.7*Sph(40)
0.4
0.2
0
Var. of Est. Blocks

Kriging Efficiency
Kriging Reg. Slope
10
20
30
40
50
f191b
b)
a) 5x5m Block
Case A Case B
Rule of Thumb
Stage
Exploration
Grade Control
KEV KRV K,V /V

50% 0.6
0.7
90% 0.95 0.3
Control values are relative, percent, or slopes. Can be

obtained from the correlogram without rescaling.
41
V2
2
K,V
V
V2
KEV
KRV
K,V /V
Block Variance
0.63
Kriging Variance
0.33
0.07
Lagrange Parameter
0.35
0.004
Var. of Est. Blocks
1.00
0.57
Kriging Efficiency
0.476
0.89
Kriging Reg. Slope
0.65
0.99
Kriging/Block Var.
0.72
0.33
In SBK program, the sign of is reversed because

of the way the kriging system is expressed.
Grade Control:
- Case A is not allright
- Case B is allright
42

References
David M., 1988.
- Handbook of Applied Advanced Geostatistical Ore Reserve Estimation. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
Krige D., 1997.
- A practical Analysis of the Effects os Spatial Structure
and of Data Available and Accessed, on Conditional
Biases in Ordinary Kriging. Proceedings of Geostat
Congress
Wollongong96. Kluwer Academic.
Vann J. et Al, 2003.
- Quantitative kriging Neighbourhood Analysis
for the Mining Geologist A Description of the Method
with Worked Case Examples. Proceeding of 5th International Mining Geology Conference, Bendigo, 2003.
43
0.63
44
KRIGING: Potential Problems (1/2)

Kriging is a good estimator. Still, there can be some
problems.
Negative weights:
- Kriging weights can be negative, especially when
the nugget is very low or nil.
- Usually not a significant problem.
- In some situations (but not in mining), negative
weights are necessary to correctly estimate values
that are higher or lower than the sample values.
KRIGING: Potential Problems (2/2)

Unusually large weights:
- Some weights can be too large, because there is too
much declustering.
Kriging weight curve
String of
samples
A string of sample is a
special cluster. Can result
in large weights for end of
string samples (Deutsh, 1993).
Point to be
estimated
f.127
f.128
Negative weights are

necessary to estimate a
value larger than the
available sample values.
Large weight for

end of string samples
- Usually not a significant problem if more than 2

holes are used for an estimate.
45
46
KRIGING: Additional Comments (1/2)
KRIGING: Additional Comments (2/2)
Smoothness
- All linear estimators, except polygonal, are
usually smoothed.
- Block values are smoothed with respect to sample
values.
- Solutions:
- Investigate if smoothing is representative of
the future mining dilution
(cf. Sections Block Distribution and Validation)
- Compute recoveries after change of support
correction (cf. Section Block Distribution).
- Simulation.
Intricate geology.
- Handling intricate geology is a software issue
- An estimation code could be made as complex as
possible, but this is probably not needed because:
- minute geological details not known;
- objective is to estimate what will be mined;
mining is very approximate.
- Local anisotropy kriging (LAK)
47
Grade smearing
- Can happen with any linear estimator.
- Hard boundaries must be incorporated in the
geology model.
- Grade spreading is controlled by the search and
trimming parameters, or by using IK.
Complexity.
- Kriging more complex than ID2, but practice is
just about good sense;
- Geostatistical concepts needed for:
- Sound exploratory data analysis;
- Objectively model spatial correlation;
- Infer block variability,degree of smoothing;
- Assess risk (estimation error) for classification;
- Simulation, etc.
48
KRIGING: Summary
Kriging
- Minimize estimation error
- BLUE
- SK: when the mean is known
- OK: when the mean is unknown
- CoK: when several variables are used
- RK: when some down hole surveys are imprecise
FACT SHEET
Ordinary Kriging
2
OK
=
PN
i=1
i (V, i) + (V, V )
Practice of kriging
- Block size
- Block discretization
- Conditional bias
- Sample search
- Anisotropy Model
Advantages and disadvantages
49
50
51
52
INDICATOR KRIGING: Content
INDICATOR KRIGING: Introduction
Also called MIK - Multiple Indicator Kriging
When to use it
- Mineralization very erratic
- High coefficient of variation (> 2 ?)
- Outliers difficult to be dealt with
- Different mineralization trends at different
cut-offs, e.g.:
- isotropic low grade background;
- anisotropic higher grades;
- lack of structure for highest grades
- Want to estimate grade distribution
- SMU grade distribution within panels.
When to use it
Concept
- Indicator variable
- Indicator kriging
= Estimate of distribution, not just an average.
- Grade distribution.
- Rock type distribution.
Practice of indicator kriging
- Choice of:
- indicator cut-off grades
- indicator class averages
- Indicator variograms
- Computing
- Fitting
- Kriging
- Sample search
Alternative:
- Ordinary kriging (OK)
- For block grade only
- Simpler in practice than IK
- Uniform conditioning
- For Panel/SMU problem
- Non linear geostat
- Relatively simple in practice
Note
- Panel/SMU IK procedure not covered in
these notes
IK: Indicator Variable
IK: Indicator Properties
An indicator variable is a variable that can take two

values: 0, 1. These values can be used to distinguish
two types:
1) grade below cut-off 0) above cut-off;
1) sandstone
0) shale;
1) altered rock
0) fresh rock;
Consider the kth indicator:

1, if grade z(x) zk ,
ik (x) =
0, otherwise.
Cut-off indicator variable:
PDF of Ik (x):
2 cutoffs
1) 0.5 g/t
2) 1.5 g/t
P [Ik (x) = 1] = pk ,
P [Ik (x) = 0] = 1 pk ,
i1
0
0
1.8
1
0.3
0.7
i2
0
- pk : probability of grade less than zk , i.e.

cumulative frequency zk .
- pk estimate: declustered average of indicator.
1
f.129
1, if z(x) < 0.5 g/t

0, otherwise
i1(x) =
i2(x) =
ik (x) is a realization of a RV Ik (x).
1, if z(x) < 1.5 g/t

0, otherwise
Mean/Expectation of Ik (x):
Definition
ik (x) =
0, otherwise.
k = 1, . . . , K;
E[Ik (x)] = 1 pk + 0 (1 pk ) = pk .
Variance of Ik (x):
where K is the number of cut-off grades.

Notes:
- Each sample grade is replaced by K indicator values
- The indicator transform is a 1-to-1 function.
5
V ar[Ik (x)] = pk (1 pk ).
The variance of an indicator is related to its probability.
6
IK: Indicator Example

Consider the following 4 grade values and the kth
indicator corresponding to a cut-off zk = 2.5 g/t.
Grade (g/t)
1
Indicator for cut-off = 2.5 g/t`
2
3
1
4
1
0
0
f129a
P [Ik (x) = 1] = pk = 2/4 = 0.5

P [Ik (x) = 0] = 1 pk
- pk = 0.5 (declustered average of indicator).
Mean Ik (x): mIk = (1 + 1 + 0 + 0)/4 = 0.5 = pk .
Mean (Ik (x))2 : mIk2 = 0.5.
Variance of Ik (x):
V ar[Ik (x)] =Mean of squares - Square of mean
V ar[Ik (x)] = 0.5 0.52 = 0.5(1 0.5) = pk (1 pk )
7
INDICATOR KRIGING: Example (1)

ORIGINAL PROBLEM: given N sample values, what
is the probability that the grade at location x0 is less
than 1 g/t Au?
Z(x3)=1.8
Z(x2)=0.3
Z(x1)=1.2
STEP 2: Variogram of i(x) indicator values.

PROPERTIES OF Ik (X0 ):
- The non conditional probability is:
P (Z(x0 ) 1) = E[I(x0 )]
?
<1 >1
Pr(Z0 < 1 | N)=?
f. 130b
STEP 1: Indicator transform

1, if grade z(x) 1
i(x) =
0, otherwise.
Can be estimated by a declustered average of the

grade indicator (i(x0 )).
- The conditional probability given the N indicator
values is:

P (Z(x0 ) 1|N ) = E I(x0 )|N
Can be approximated as:
EQUIVALENT PROBLEM: given the N indicator values, what is the probability that the grade at location
x0 is less than 1 g/t Au?
i(x3)=0 i(x2)=1
E[Ik (x0 )|N ] = 0 +
N X
N
X
?
f. 131c
0 +
N
X
j=1
10
P (Z(x0 ) 1|N ) 0 +
N
X
j i(xj )
j=1
The best unbiased linear combination is obtained by

kriging (OK or SK):
P (Z(x0 ) 1|N ) is OK estimate of I(x0 )
STEP 3: Ordinary kriging of the indicator.
STEP 4: Correct the estimated probability:
- Set to 0 if negative
- Set to 1 if larger than 1
The estimated grade distribution is:
- P (Z(x0 ) 1|N ): the OK estimate
- P (Z(x0 ) > 1|N ) = 1 P (Z(x0 ) 1|N )
11
jj 0 i(xj )i(xj 0 ) +
j=1 j 0 =1
<1 >1
Pr(Z0 < 1 | N)=?
j ij (xj )
j=1
i(x1)=0
N
X
12
j i(xj )
INDICATOR KRIGING: Exercise 20

Situation: the probability of a point grade being less
than 1.5 g/t is estimated using 4 samples:
4
x
1
2
3
4
z(x)
1
2.5
1.9
3.0
0.1m
2
3
3m
good
bad
f.126
0?
6m
4
X
P z(x0 ) 1.5 =
i i1.5g/t (xi )
i=1
The variogram of the 1.5 g/t cut-off indicator is:

(h) = 0.05 + 0.95 Sph(Rx = 10m, Ry = 5m)
probabilities for the following methods:
- polygonal
- 1/d
- your intuition
- indicator kriging
HINT: Same situation as Exercise 19, Section Ordinary Kriging! Same estimation weights.
13
15
14
16
INDICATOR KRIGING: Model (1)

ORIGINAL PROBLEM: given N sample grades, what
is the conditional pdf of grades at location x0 ?

STEP 2: Variograms of each indicator:
k (h), k = 1, . . . , K
z(x3)
z(x2)
?
z(x1)
z2
z1
fz(x0) = ?
PROPERTIES OF Ik (X0 ):
- Non conditional cum. freq. of cut-off zk :
f. 130
pk (x0 ) = E[Ik (x0 )]
STEP 1: Indicator transform

- It is a 1-to-1 function such that:

ik (x) =
0, otherwise.
k = 1, . . . , K;
- Conditional cum. freq. of cut-off zk given the

N K indicator values:

pk|NK (x0 ) = E Ik (x0 )|N K
where K is the number of cut-offs.
N K stands for the N K conditioning indicator

values
EQUIVALENT PROBLEM: given N K indicator

values, what is the conditional pdf of grades at location
x0 ?
i1(x2)
i2(x2)
i1(x3)
i2(x3)
p1
i1(x1)
i2(x1)
p1(x0) = ?
z1
p p 2
p 2 p 3
1
z2
f. 131
p2(x0) = ?
17
18
APPROXIMATION of pk|NK (x0 ):

pk|NK (x0 ) = E Ik (x0 )|N K
= 0 +
N X
K
X
jl ijl (xj )+
STEP 3: For each of the K indicators:

- Ordinary kriging to get an estimate of the kth cutoff cumulative frequency.
STEP 4: Correct the estimated cumulative frequencies:
j=1 l=1
N X
N X
K X
K
X
j=1
j 0 =1
l=1
Order Relation Corrections
jj 0ll0 il (xj )il0 (xj 0 ) +
0 +
N X
K
X
jl ijl (xj )
1
p1
j=1 l=1
0 +
N
X
jk ik (xj )
After
Before
l0 =1
p2 p
3
p4
p5
f. 131b
z1 z2 z3 z4 z5
z1 z2 z3 z4 z5
j=1
The best unbiased linear combination is obtained by

kriging (OK or SK):
The estimated conditional grade distribution is the set

of corrected frequencies.
pk|NK (x0 ) = is OK estimate of Ik (x0 )
19
20

STEP 5: Depending on the objective, you can:
- Compute the average of the grade conditional distribution
Indicator Kriging (IK) as in op29;
- Report the probability that the grade exceeds a
given threshold
Probability Maps;
- Draw a value at random from the distribution
One step of Sequential Indicator Simulation.
21
22
23
24
PRACTICE OF IK: Introduction
PRACTICE OF IK: Indicator Cut-Offs
When to use it
- Mineralization very erratic
- High coefficient of variation (> 2 ?)
- Outliers difficult to be dealt with
- Different mineralization trends at different
cut-offs, e.g.:
- Want to estimate grade distribution
Pay
-
Cutting/trimming:
- Not needed. See indicator interval averages.
Choice of cut-offs:
- Objective is to estimate distribution of grades in
ore, not waste = Use EDA envelope.
- About 10 cut-offs generally enough.
- Low cut-offs at regular frequency intervals.
- High cut-offs at regular quantity of metal intervals.
attention to
Choice of indicator cut-offs
Indicator Variogram
Search strategy
In general, all the practical rules for ordinary kriging

also apply for indicator kriging. Notably, the choice of
parameters should be done per geological domain, and
within an envelope that contains most of the metal.
25
26
PROP QM
Example: picking indicator cut-offs
Example: getting indicator interval averages
.000 .001 .002 .003 .004 .005 .006 .007 .008 .009
1.0
1.0
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
Number of data read:
612
Maximum value:
0.67
0.7
0.7
0.7
Number accepted:
612
Upper quartile:
0.006
0.6
0.6
0.6
Mean value:
0.015
Median:
0.001
0.5
0.5
0.5
Variance:
0.002
Lower quartile:
0.001
0.4
0.4
0.4
Coef. of Variation:
3.31
Minimum value:
0.001
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
.000 .001 .002 .003 .004 .005 .006 .007 .008 .009 .010
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10
CUT-OFF ( opt )
1.0
PROP QM
Indicator interval averages:

- Declustered average of sample grades within intervals. Sometimes mid-point of the intervals.
- For the last cut-off, the declustered median is usually chosen. This is equivalent to the trimming of
outliers usually performed before ordinary kriging
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9 1.0
1.0
0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Conditional Statistics
Class Limits
Within Class Limits
lower
upper
% of
data
1.0
CUT-OFF ( opt )
0.8
Basic Statistics
mean
% of
median metal
Above Lower Limit

# of
data
% of
data
mean
% of
median metal
10.
0.001
0.004
71.5
0.001
0.001
6.5
430
100.0
0.015
0.001 100.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.004
0.01
7.7
0.007
0.007
3.6
46
28.5
0.048
0.016
93.5
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.01
0.03
11.0
0.016
0.015
12.2
72
20.8
0.063
0.025
89.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.03
0.07
4.2
0.047
0.047
13.8
29
9.7
0.116
0.08
77.7
0.6
0.6
0.07
0.12
2.4
0.092
0.091
15.4
14
5.5
0.169
0.128
63.9
0.6
0.12
0.15
1.1
0.138
0.146
10.1
3.1
0.231
0.186
48.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.15
0.24
1.3
0.195
0.202
17.4
2.0
0.28
0.213
38.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.24
0.38
0.4
0.346
0.341
9.8
0.7
0.438
0.363
21.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.38
0.67
0.3
0.57
0.533
11.2
0.3
0.57
0.533
11.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9 1.0
CUT-OFF ( opt )
0.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
CUT-OFF ( opt )
27
8.
9.
0.0
10.
ind_pickup.ps
28
condstat.ps
PRACTICE OF IK: Indicator Variograms
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM
0.000
0.
20.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
80.
0.000
100.
0.
20.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
80.
20.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
80.
20.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
80.
20.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
80.
20.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
80.
VARIOGRAM
VARIOGRAM
20.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
80.
0.000
100.
0.
20.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
80.
0.000
100.
0.
20.
PRACTICE OF IK: Kriging
PRACTICE OF IK: Kriging
k (h) =
(h)
,
sIk(x)sIk(x+h)
40.
60.
DISTANCE
100.
Search strategy:
- Basically the same as for ordinary kriging;
- If the very high grades are uncorrelated, it may be
necessary to restrict their zone of influence.
Variable search IK is a double edge sword.
- Impossible to generate high grade estimates beyond
the zone of influence of a high grade sample (which
can be restricted to just a few metres).
= High grade smearing may be controlled, but zones
that are poorly sampled may be underestimated.
sIk stands for standard deviation of the pairs

head and tail indicator samples.
- Because the indicators are related through their
successive cut-offs, one would not expect huge
jumps between the parameters of two successive
indicator variograms.
- Some people tabulate the indicator variogram
parameters and smooth them prior to kriging.
31
80.
0.100
30
Variogram modeling:
- Sill pk (1 pk ), where pk is the kth indicator
probability.
- Rescaling the sills is useful.
Best result with IK correlogram.
100.
0.200
29
Variogram computation:
- Can use absolute variograms (but see below);
- Same rules as in the variogram section.
40.
60.
DISTANCE
CUT-OFF: 200 G/T
0.100
0.000
20.
0.300
0.200
0.
0.000
100.
0.
CUT-OFF: 100 G/T
0.100
80.
0.100
0.300
0.200
100.
0.200
0.000
100.
0.
CUT-OFF: 50 G/T
0.300
40.
60.
DISTANCE
CUT-OFF: 25 G/T
0.100
0.000
20.
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.
0.000
100.
0.
CUT-OFF: 11 G/T
0.300
0.200
80.
VARIOGRAM
0.000
100.
0.
CUT-OFF: 7.0 G/T

0.300
100.
0.100
0.100
0.000
80.
0.200
0.200
0.100
40.
60.
DISTANCE
0.300
0.300
0.200
20.
CUT-OFF: 3.5 G/T
CUT-OFF: 2.5 G/T
CUT-OFF: 1.8 G/T

0.300
0.
0.000
100.
0.
VARIOGRAM
Indicator variograms are well suited to model the different characteristics of the mineralization at different
cut-offs.
0.100
0.100
0.100
VARIOGRAM
Maximum sill is 0.5(10.5) = 0.25 for the 50th quantile.
0.200
0.200
0.200
VARIOGRAM
Variogram sill:
= variance of the indicator
= pk (1 pk ) where pk is the probability of
the indicator.
0.300
0.300
VARIOGRAM
Probability that the 2 indicators are different

=
2
CUT-OFF: 1.0 G/T
CUT-OFF: 0.6 G/T
CUT-OFF: 0.2 G/T

0.300
Indicator VARIOGRAM
Nh
1 X
=
|ik (xi ) i(xi + h)|
2Nh i=1
Indicator variograms for 12 increasing cut-off grades.
VARIOGRAM
Variogram:
Nh
1 X
[ik (xi ) i(xi + h)]2
k (h) =
2Nh i=1
PRACTICE OF IK: Indicator Variograms
32
INDICATOR KRIGING: Summary

Principle of indicator kriging
- Estimate of the point grade distribution
Distribution average
+ IK estimation variance
Probability maps, etc.
- IK is a point estimator
- Point-to-block support correction.
FACT SHEET
Indicator Kriging
No New Formulas
Practice of indicator kriging

- When to use it
- Indicator cut-off, variogram
- Sample search
33
34
35
36
MODEL VALIDATION
Introduction
Objective is to make sure no serious mistake has been
made during the estimation.
Broad categories of validation exercises are:
1) Jackknife, i.e. estimating known sample values
from surrounding samples
2) Sensitivity to parameter changes
3) Model vs. data validation
4) Selectivity and local precision checks
5) Visual validation
6) Previous vs. new model comparison
7) Reconciliation
Recommendation:
- Try to understand/explain what you see. Any curious result should not be discarded as spurious,
but should be explained for it might tell something
about the estimation (good or bad).
VALIDATION: Jackknife (1)
METHOD
DISPLAYS - Histogram of Residuals
Jackknife consists in estimating known sample values

from the surrounding samples, and to compare the estimates with the known true values.
8.2
8.2
0.9
3.7
The residuals are the estimated minus true values.

- Positive or negative residuals respectively means
over- or under-estimation.
- A zero mean would be expected for the residuals.
3.7
0.9
2.1
2.1
1.2
0.30
Histogram of Residuals
Nb. data
683
mean
-0.03
std. dev.
8.97
max 33.85
min -134.19
0.25
3.4
2.8
0.20
2.8
f.138
Frequency
3.4
8.2
0.15
0.10
0.9
3.7
0.05
2.1
z=1.2
z*=3.7
3.4
0.00
-50.
2.8
-30.
-10.
10.
30.
50.
Residuals (g/t Au)
The hope is that some conclusions can be drawn for the

quality of the estimates in order to compare:
- different estimation methods;
- different search strategies, etc.
Notes:
- Mean of residuals very close to zero.
- Very large negative residual (-135 g/t).
DISPLAYS - Histogram of Standardized Residuals
DISPLAYS - QQ Plot
Residuals (Res) divided by the kriged STDV.

Res
N ?(m = 0.0, s2 = 1.0).
K
if: - Distribution of error is normal
- Estimation is unbiased
- K reflects precision of estimates.
QQ-Plots of true versus estimated values.

- Look at the similarity of the 2 distributions.
10
Estimated vs. True QQ plot
Histogram of (Residuals / OK StDv)

Nb. data
683
mean -0.005
std. dev.
1.14
max.
4.40
min. -16.56
Frequency
0.16
0.12
True Grades
0.20
0.08
2
0.04
xval_qq.eps
0
0.00
0
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
Residual/OK StDv
1.00
2.00
3.00
xval_hist_res_stdz.ai
Notes:
- Distribution is symmetrical around 0.
- STDV > 1 indicates that kriging variance is slightly
low.
- Not much used because we are not making precision
statements about individual block estimates.
7
10
Estimated Grades
Notes:
- Distributions are quite different due to the smoothing of the estimation.
- Graph can be misleading because we are mining
blocks and not samples.
8
DISPLAYS - Scattergram
DISPLAYS - Map of Residuals

Use + - symbols for over-under-estimation.
- Different colours or shades can be used to represent
the amplitude of over- or under-estimations.
- Expect to have a reasonable mix of + and -.
Scattergrams of the true versus estimated values.

- Look at the spread of the estimates with respect
to the true values.
Estimated vs. True Values
Nb of data
Nb cut-out
X Variable: mean
std. dev.
min/max
3.07
4.03
0.13 / 38.65
Y Variable: mean
std. dev.
min/max
3.11
9.08
0.10 / 145.0
correlation
rank correlation
0.24
0.59
Map of Residuals
22400
22500
11400
True Au (g/t)
10.
683
4
11400
100.
1.
xval_scat.eps
.1
.1
1.
10.
100.
Estimated Au (g/t)
Note:
- Spread is quite large
- The smoothed regression line reveals the
conditional bias (point level).
9

PROBLEMS
Jackknife is a useful but sometimes frustrating tool. Indeed,
many problems are linked to the procedure.
1: Results can be so erratic that it is difficult to draw any
conclusions.
2: Comparisons are available only where estimates are not
needed.
3: Comparisons are done at the sample level, yet we mine
blocks.
Estimates of blocks are better than estimates of
samples.
Cross-validation results are pessimistic.
- Spread of points on the scattergram too large;
- Spread of values on the histogram too wide.
True block values less variable than true
sample values.
The relative smoothing observed during cross
validation is too severe. This can be observed on:
- The QQ-plot (QQ line significantly rotated with
respect to the 450 line);
- The scattergram (conditional bias);
11
|Res| < 0.1
Res > 0.1
Res < -0.1
22400
xval_map_res.eps
22500
Note: Observe more + than -.

10

PROBLEMS
4: Configuration of samples during cross validation may
be quite different from configuration used to estimate
blocks.
If sample values are re-estimated with all the surrounding data, then the cross-validation data configuration is
much more favourable than reality (because there are
always two adjacent hole samples).
Cross-validation results are optimistic.
If each sample value is re-estimated with the surrounding data excluding the sample drill hole data, then the
cross-validation data configuration is probably worst
than reality.
Cross-validation results are pessimistic.
Possible solution: use an exclusion radius, i.e. exclude all samples within a certain radius.
12

PROBLEMS
4: Configuration of samples (contd.)
PROBLEMS
5: Clusters can confuse the picture.
- Can counteracted by using declustered weights.
Samples
Location to
estimate
Optimistic
Search
Pessimistic
6: Outliers can confuse the picture.

- Can result in apparent bias in the residual average.
- If suspected, remove or trim them and repeat
cross validation.
AMEC SOLUTION
- When doing this type of X-validation:
- Do not use one composite at a time; but
- The average of several composites, such that composite CV is similar to the SMU CV.
Miniblocks
Exclusion
Radius
About right?
xval_exrad.eps
13
14
15
16
VALIDATION: Validate against Data

Kriged vs. Sample Stats
This consists in re-estimating the model with different

parameters and check the differences.
Parameters that can be modified:
- Sample search: size, maximum number of samples,
minimum number of holes...
- Geological boundaries: soft, one-way hard, twoway hard, semi-soft...
- Increasing/decreasing search for low/high indicator
Within EDA envelope, per geology domain.

Sample grade distribution
- Properly trimmed and declustered
3M AU SAMPLES, DECLUSTERED
Number of Data
mean
std. dev
coef. of var
maximum
minimum
0.20
0.15
Frequency
VALIDATION: Sensitivity
Impact of Estimation Parameters
1526
0.86
1.39
1.62
14.9
0.002
0.10
0.05
classes (IK).
- Adjusting highest indicator class mean (IK).
Statistics of the results:
- average, variance;
- histogram;
- grade/tonnage curves.
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
dil_hist_samp.eps
AU (G/T)
Kriged block grade distribution

KRIGED AU, KVAR <= 0.05
0.20

mean 0.93
std. dev 0.93
coef. of var 1.00
maximum 7.54
minimum 0.00
Frequency
0.15
Caution!
- Dont run all modifications at the same time. This
would not tell which one(s) cause(s) the difference.
0.10
0.05
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
AU (G/T)
Means are different. Why?

18
17
VALIDATION: Validate against Data

Kriged Block Grades vs. Sample Grades
Naive cross-validation plot.
Within EDA envelope, per geology domain.
10.
Naive Cross-Validation Plot

All Geology Domains - TotCu (%)
DH Composites within Blocks
No. of data
13729
BLOCKS: mean 0.46

stdv. 0.57
min. 0.00
max. 5.40
COMPS: mean 0.44
stdv. 0.59
min. 0.00
max. 10.60
correlation 0.85
1.
.1
.01
.01
.1
1.
10.
15x15x15m Block Estimates
19
20
3.00
4.00
5.00
dil_hist_ok.eps
VALIDATION: Selectivity
Dilution / Misclassification (1/2)
Objective of long term open pit model: to give a reasonable picture of what will be mined in the future.
Model must be smoothed with respect to sample values.
The question is how much?
Variability study/calibration
Variability study/calibration must be done carefully as
any wrong doing can lead to bias in the recoveries.
If estimates are to smoothed, the following can be done:
- Reduce the size of the search for samples, and/or
- Reduce the maximum number of samples.
- Sometimes the model is too smoothed because of a
lack of data and ID3 (or 4) must be used.
21
VALIDATION: Selectivity
Dilution / Misclassification (2/2)
Variability study/calibration
1) Compute the variance of the true SMU grades.
Assume that the diluted grades are somewhat
smoother than actual grades.
Rule of thumb: SMU CV 5-10% smoother than
sample CV.
2) Compute the variance of the estimated SMU grades
at the time of grade control.
3) Calibrate using reconciliation results.
4) Collect mining misclassification statistics from analog deposit then calibrate model accordingly.
5) Simulate grade + mining method.
Refer to Section Block Distribution for more info.
22
VALIDATION: Local Precision

Objective of grade control / underground models:
- To minimize misclassification.
To minimize misclassification, the estimates should be:
- Accurate, i.e. conditional bias must be minimized;
- Precise, i.e. spread of the errors must be minimized.
Refer to course sections:
- Practice of OK: Conditional Bias
- Practice of OK: Kriging Efficiency
23
24
VALIDATION: Visual Validation
VALIDATION: Current vs. Previous Model (1)
Review sections and benches of estimated block model,

together with available information.
Scattergram of block grades from both models. Block

are at same locations.
Look at the trends in the models. Do they match the

geology and the anisotropy model?
100.
Retrieve 10 highest estimates. Do they make sense

given the available information?
How do they
Check end of holes.

Kriged Grade Map + Sample Values
22400
Nb. of data 649

Nb cut-out 275
10.
1996 Model AU (G/T)
Check 10 highest DDH intersections.

spread in the estimated model?
22500
D3: 1997 vs. 1996 -- Outside Thrust

Block in stope excluded, ENV=2
1.
11400
11400
.01
.1
1.
10.
100.
xval_scat1
1997 Model AU (G/T)
Means are different. Why?
0. 1 2 3 4 5.
xval_map_ok.eps
22500
26
25
VALIDATION: Current vs. Previous Model (2)
A road map of the changes from the previous to current
block model is useful.
Changes in Resource Metal ( Oz )
96,000
-5,000
Old Model
New Est. Grades
25,000
New Drilling
3,900
New Geology
New Cutoff
-1,300
New Res. Area

2,660
New Model
121,260
-50,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
xval_roadmap.eps`
Metal Oz
27
Y Var: mean
std. dev.
minimum
maximum
4.271
4.258
0.080
31.330
Reg: smoothed Y
.01
22400
4.986
4.713
0.080
39.405
correlation 0.751
.1
Au (g/t)
X Var: mean
std. dev.
minimum
maximum
28
VALIDATION: Summary
FACT SHEET
Validation
Most important step.

Validation
- Principle of Jackknife
- Sensitivity to parameter changes
- Model vs. data validation
- Selectivity and local precision checks
- Visual validation
- Previous vs. new model comparison
- Block per block, road maps
- Reconciliation
- Next section
No New Formulas
Some validation must be done:

- Within an EDA envelope
- Per geology domain
29
30
RECONCILIATION
Introduction
RECONCILIATION
Convention
Objective is to:
- Compare prediction to measurement, e.g:
- Long term model to short term model
- Long term reserve to mill production
- Short term reserve to mill production
- Explain differences if significant
- Take action when necessary
Common definition and terminology across operations

is important.
Example of terminology
Prediction/Measurement
- The from/to components of reconciliation
- The prediction is reconciled to the measurement
Most important monitoring step
WSS - Wide space sampling

- Sampling used for long term resource / reserve
modeling
This section:
- Short discussion on reconciliation
- Notation, terminology
- General procedures
- One case study
CSS - Close space sampling

- Sampling used for short term reserve/grade control
modeling
RECONCILIATION: Process
Reconciliation
Get Data:
WSS Reserve
CSS Reserve ss Designed
Mill Production
Compare Prediction - Measurement, i.e.:

WSS Reserve - CSS Reserve ss Designed
CSS Reserve as Designed - Mill Production
WSS Reserve - Mill Production
Differences Exceed Control Limits ?

Yes
Examine Possible Reasons for Differences
(Geology, Sampling, Estimation Method, etc.)
Test Possible Reasons Identified

Additional
Investigation
(Expert?)
No
Actual Causes for Differences identified ?

Yes
Modify Relevant Aspect of Reconciliation
Reconciliation
Calculation
Estimation
Method
Sampling Protocol
Dilution
Etc.
gp_75
RECONCILIATION: Generalities
Predictions and Measurements
Open Pit
WSS Model CSS Model CSS as Designed
As Mined As Milled
As Mined As Milled: problems with mill, mining,
BH samples
CSS as Designed As Mined: dilution in the pit.
CSS Model As designed: dilution due to dig line design.
WSS Model CSS Model: compares WSS (DH)
model predictions with the best model that can be
obtained.
Underground
WSS/CSS Model CSS as Designed
As Mined As Milled
As Mined As Milled: problems with mill, mining,
sampling
CSS as Designed As Mined: dilution issues
RECONCILIATION: Problem Resolution

Problems/Obstacles
Problems that can be investigated
- DH and/or BH sample grade bias
- Excessive/insufficient trimming/cutting
- WSS resource block model too smoothed/variable
Some other problems
- Lack of sampling
- Small pods of high grade ore have been missed
- Samples have wrong orientation w.r.t. geology
- Huge nugget effect (fundamental error)
- Excessive misclassification (mining side)
Obstacle to solution
- DH, BH, production databases not clean
- Poor samples; biased samples
- Mixed mill feed, stockpiles
- No CSS (BH) block model
- Statistical fluctuations, trends
- Comparing apples and oranges, zone mismatch
Reconciliation often very difficult
- Be very careful
- Proceed one step at a time
- Try to understand/explain what you see.

General Procedure (1)
Information needed
- DH and BH sample databases
- WSS (DH) and CSS (BH) block models
- Production data
- For all ore/waste category
- Digging limits (production polygons)
- Tonnes and grades
Define a reconciliation zone such that:
- No zone mismatch between predictions
and measurements.
- At every location in the zone, there must be a:
- WSS (DH) block model estimate
- CSS (BH) block model estimate
- Production data (average grade of corresponding ore/waste production polygon).
- Production polygons should be fully covered with
WSS and CSS estimates.
A Zone where WSS, CSS, and production information can be compared. No fringe effect, etc.

Reconciliation Zone
Excluded:
No CSS estimates
Excluded:
No WSS estimates
f.189a
Excluded:
All waste
or
Production data
missing
WSS block estimates
Included:
WSS, CSS, and
Production data
available
CSS Block estimate

Blast Limits
Reconciliation Zone
10


A few checks at no cutoff

- BH and DH samples declustered/trimmed sample
means
- Should be close globally and per geology domain
- Discrepancies may indicate sampling bias
- BH and DH closest sample pairs average grades
- Should be similar.
- Discrepancies may indicate sampling bias
- WSS and CSS model average grades
- Should be close globally and ore geology domain
- Discrepancies may indicate:
- Sampling bias
- Problem with WSS and/or CSS model estimation methods.
Checks with production

- Need to have reliable production data.
- Mill vs. CSS model
- Same cut-off must be used for prediction and
measurement.
- Prediction and measurements should be similar.
- Discrepancies in:
- grade may indicate BH sampling bias or
misclassification
- tonnes may indicate extra dilution or failure to mine close to dig lines.
When comparing BH and DH sample means, beware of

possible statistical fluctuations.
- Bootstrap is a useful check of possible statistical
fluctuations
11
12
Recovery curves
Recovered Grade
Recovered Tonnes
106
Grade (g/t)
WSS vs. CSS model checks

- Compare WSS and CSS block model recovery
curves (tonnes and grades for a series of cutoffs).
- Discrepancies may indicate:
- Sampling bias
- Problem with WSS and/or CSS model estimation methods
- Lack/excess of variability in the WSS model

Tonnes

0
0
Cutoff
5g/t
Cutoff
5g/t
f.190
CSS (BH) block model

MORE variable than CSS, i.e. more selective
LESS variable than CSS, i.e. less selective
Production data
13
14
15
16
RECONCILIATION:
Summary
FACT SHEET
Reconciliation
Terminology is important
No New Formulas
Prediction Measurements
- WSS Model CSS Model As Mined As
Milled
Stressed importance of:
- Reconciliation envelope
- Proceeding step by step
17
18
MATH RECALL: Exercise 1

Let 3 Au values: z1 = 1, z2 = 2, z3 = 3 g/t
MATH RECALL: Exercise 1 - Solution

z1 + z2 + z3 = 1 + 2 + 3 = 6
(z1 + z2 ) z3 = (1 + 2) 3 = 9
Compute:
z1 + z2 z3 = 1 + (2 3) = 7
P3
i=1 zi = z1 + z2 + z3 = 1 + 2 + 3 = 6
P3
i=1 2 zi = 2z1 + 2z2 + 2z3 = 2 + 4 + 6 = 12

P
3
(z 2)2+(z2 2)2 +(z3 2)2
12 i=1 (zi 2)2 = 1
= 1+0+1
=1
2
2
z1 + z2 + z3
(z1 + z2 ) z3
z1 + z2 z3
P3
i=1 zi
P3
i=1 2 zi
P3
1
2
i=1 (zi 2)
2
UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Exercise 2

UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Exercise 2 - Solution

Solution:
This exercise can be skipped.

s2Z =
Show that:
s2Z
N
N
h1 X
i
1 X
=
(zi mZ )2 =
zi2 m2Z .
N
N
i=1
i=1
Hints:
- Expand (zi mZ )2
PN
- mZ = N1
i=1 zi
N
1 X
(zi mZ )2
N i=1
N
1 X 2
(zi 2zi mZ + m2Z )
N
i=1
N
N
N
i
X
1 hX 2 X
zi
2zi mZ +
m2Z
=
N
i=1
i=1
i=1
N
N
i
X
1 hX 2
=
zi 2mZ
zi + N m2Z
N i=1
i=1
N
i
1 hX 2
zi 2mZ N mZ + N m2Z
N
i=1
N
i
1 hX 2
=
zi N m2Z
N i=1
N
1 h X 2i
z m2Z
N i=1 i
UNIVARIATE DESCRIPTION: Exercise 3

Let 11 Au values
.1
.2
.7
.8
.9
1.2
2.0
2.4
3.5
5.7
18.0
Draw the histogram, choosing a class interval so that

the shape of the distribution is reproduced.
.1
.2
.7
.8
.9
1.2
2.0
2.4
3.5
5.7
18.0
Histogram
Nb of
values
5
Histogram
5
4
3
1 Outlier
2
2
1
Compute the:
- mean, median;
- variance, standard deviation;
- coefficient of variation.
HINTS for variance:

- Variance = Mean of Squares - Square of Mean, e.g:
P

N
2
2
s2Z = N1
i=1 zi mZ
zi2
Au2
freq
f Au
f Au2
.5
.25
.5
.25
.125
1.5
2.25
.2
.3
.45
2.5
6.25
.1
.25
.625
3.5
12.25
.1
.35
1.225
4.5
20.25
.0
.0
.0
5.5
30.25
.1
.55
3.025
1.0
1.7
5.45
4
5
Au
Totals
Mid clas value
Statistics:,
P
fi = P
1
- mAu =P fi Aui = 1.7
- s2Au = fi Au2i m2Au = 2.56
- cvAu = sAu /mAu = 1.06
- q50 = 1
11
10 Au (g/t)
Au = 18 g/t is an outlier. By deleting the corresponding value, the statistics are:

- mAu = 1.75
s2Au = 2.74
sAu = 1.65
- cvAu = 0.95
q50 = 1.05
The outlier has a great impact on m and s2 , but not
much on q50.
10
Another way of computing the statistics is to use the

histogram class frequencies and mid points. Excluding
the 18g/t outlier, the results are as follows:
Statistics:
P
P 2
- N = 11 P
Aui = 35.5
Aui = 382
- mAu =P Aui /N = 3.23
- s2Au =
Au2i /N m2Au = 24.3
sAu = 4.93
- cvAu = sAu /mAu = 1.53
- q50 = 1.2
<
f.111
- Compute the means of zi and

- Then compute the variance
12

We have:
P
P
mX = (1/N ) i=N
mY = (1/N ) yi
i=1 xi
P
s2X = (1/N ) x2i m2X
Express the following quantities:

- m(X+Y ) , the mean of the sum of two variables.
- m(aX) , s2(aX) , where a is a constant.
- m(X+a) , s2(X+a) , where a is a constant.
in term of mX , mY , and s2X .
Hints. Use:
P
- U = X + Y and mU = (1/N
P) ui
- V = aX and mV = (1/N ) viP
- W =X+aP
and mW = (1/N ) wi
- s2V = (1/N ) Pvi2 m2V
- s2W = (1/N ) wi2 m2W

m(X+Y )
P
Using U = X + Y , and the fact that the sum ( ) is a
linear operator, we have:
1 X
(ui )
m(X+Y ) = mU =
N
X
1
=
(xi + yi )
N
h
X
X i
1
=
xi +
yi
N
X
X
1
1
=
xi +
yi
N
N
= mX + mY
m(aX)
Using V = aX, we have:
1 X
m(aX) = mV =
vi
N
X
1
=
(axi )
N
X
a
=
(xi )
N
= amX
13
14
s2(aX)
Using V = aX, we have:
1 X 2
vi m2V
s2(aX) = s2V =
N
1 X
=
(axi )2 m2(aX)
N
a2 X 2
=
xi a2 m2X
N
h1 X
i
= a2
x2i m2X
N
2 2
= a sX
m(X+a)
Using W = X + a, we have:
m(X+a) = mW =
1 X
wi
N
s(X+a)
Using W = X + a, we have:
1 X 2
2
s(X+a) = s2W =
wi m2W
N
1 X
=
(xi + a)2 m2(X+a)
N
1 X 2
=
(xi + 2axi + a2 ) (mx + a)(mx + a)
N
1 X 2
=
(xi + 2axi + a2 ) (m2X + 2amX + a2 )
N
X
X

1
1
2
2
=
xi mX +
2axi 2amX
N
N
X

1
1 X
2
2
=
xi mX + 2a
xi 2amX
N
N
X

1
=
x2i m2X
N
= s2X
X
X
1 X
1
=
(xi + a) =
(xi ) +
a
N
N
X
X

1
1
=
(xi ) + N a
(xi ) + a
N
N
= mX + a
15
16

Standardizing consist in subtracting the mean from the
Standardizing
z mz
sz

We use the following propoerties:
- maZ+b = a mZ + b
- saZ+b = a2 s2Z
where a and b are two constants.
We have:
s=
What are the mean and variance of a standardized

variable?
Hint: Use the properties of the mean and variance
demonstrated in Exercise 2.
where
1
sZ
Mean:
and
mZ
sZ
z mZ
1
mZ
=
z
sZ
sZ
sZ
are two constants.
ZmZ
sZ
=m
1
sZ
mZ
sZ
1
mZ
mZ
sZ
sZ
=0
=
Variance:
s2 ZmZ = s2
sZ
1
sZ
mZ
sZ
1 2 2
sZ
sZ
=1
=
17
The mean and variance of a standardized variable are

0 and 1 respectively.
18
19
20
UNIV. MODEL: Exercise 6

Let a RV Z, and two constants a and b. We have:
E(Z) = Z =
fZ (z)dz
V ar(Z) =
2
Z
(z Z )2 fZ (z)dz
Show that:
- E(aZ + b) =aE(Z) + b

- V ar(Z) = E (Z Z )2 = E(Z 2 ) E(Z)
- V ar(aZ + b) = a2 V ar(Z)
UNIV. MODEL: Exercise 6 - Solution

E(aZ + b)
R
Using g(Z) = aZ + b, and the fact that the integral ( )
is a linear operator, we have:
Z +

E(aZ + b) = E (g(Z) =
g(z)fZ (z)dz
Z
= (az + b)fZ (z)dz
Z
Z
= azfZ (z)dz + bfZ (z)dz
Z
Z
= a zfZ (z)dz + b fZ (z)dz
= a E(Z) + b 1
= aE(Z) + b
Hints. Use:
- g(Z) = U = aZ + b
R +
- E[g(Z)] = g(z)fZ (z)dz
21
22

V ar(Z) = E (Z Z )2 = E(Z 2 ) E(Z)

V ar(Z) = E (Z Z )2

= E Z 2 2ZZ + 2Z
= E(Z 2 ) E(2ZZ ) + E(2Z )
= E(Z 2 ) 2z E(Z) + 2Z
= E(Z 2 ) 2z Z + 2Z
= E(Z 2 ) 2Z

= E(Z 2 ) E(Z)
V ar(aZ + b) = a2 V ar(Z)

2
V ar(aZ + b) = V ar(U ) = E(U 2 ) E(U )

2
= E (aZ + b)2 ) E(aZ + b)

2
= E(a2 Z 2 + 2aZ + b2 ) aE(Z) + b

= E(a2 Z 2 ) + E(2aZ) + E(b2 )

2
a [E(Z)]2 + 2aE(Z) + b2

= a2 E(Z 2 ) + 2aE(Z) + b2

2
a [E(Z)]2 + 2aE(Z) + b2
= a2 E(Z 2 ) a2 [E(Z)]2

= a2 E(Z 2 ) [E(Z)]2
= a2 V ar(Z)
23
24
DECLUSTERING: Exercise 7
Let the following sampling situation:
DECLUSTERING: Exercise 7 - Solution

Declustering cell size: 50 50 m
CELL DECLUSTERING
N
N
1
1/2
f.118
1/5
f.118
100m
100m
What would be a reasonable cell declustering size?

After declustering, most of the weights (pre-rescaling)
would be one (one data per cell). Some of them would
be 0.5 (2 data per cell), or 0.2 (5 data per cell).
25
26
27
28
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Exercise 8 - Solution
Let 11 pairs of AuS values
Scattergram
S
X (Au)
.1
.2
.7
.8
.9
1.2
Y (S)
1.01
2.54
0.60
1.72
2.63
1.82
4
Outlier!
X (Au)
2.0
2.4
3.5
5.7
18.0
Y (S)
3.25
2.34
3.68
4.89
2.24
2
1
f. 93
0
0
Au
Draw the scattergram

Compute the:
- covariance;
- coefficient of correlation.
HINTS
- The stats of X (mx , s2x , sx )have already been computed.
- For the covariance
- Cov = Meanof Products - Product of Means
PN
Cov(X, Y ) = N1 i=1 xi yi mX mY
- Compute the mean of xi yi , then mx and my .
- For the correlation coefficient, use the fact that:
- Variance of X = s2x = 24.3 (computed earlier)
- Variance of Y = s2y = 1.32 (graciously provided).
29
31
Statistics:
P
P
- P
N = 11
Au
i = 35.5
P
P Si = 26.7
2
Au2i =
382
S
=
79.5
Aui Si = 100.
i
P
- mAu =P Aui /N = 3.23
- mS = PSi /N = 2.43
- s2Au =P Au2i /N m2Au = 24.3
2
- s2S =
Si2 /N
PmS = 1.32
- Cov(Au, S) = Aui Si /N mAu mS = 1.24
- Cor(Au, S) = Cov(Au, S)/sAu sS = 0.22
Au = 18 g/t is an outlier. By deleting the corresponding pair, the statistics are:
- mAu = 1.75
mS = 2.45
- s2Au = 2.74
m2S = 1.45
- Cov(Au, S) = 1.68
Cor(Au, S) = 0.84
Clearly a much better correlation!
30
32

Let the following two RVs X and Y , sampled at N
locations. We have:
P
P
mX = (1/N ) i=N
mY = (1/N ) yi
i=1 xi
P
P
s2X = (1/N ) x2i m2X
s2Y = (1/N ) yi2 m2Y
P
Cov(X, Y ) = (1/N ) xi yi mX mY
Show that:
V ar(X + Y ) = s2X + s2Y + 2Cov(X, Y )
.
BIV. DESCRIPTION: Exercise 9 - Solution

We have:
- U =X+Y
- u2i = (xi + yi )2 = x2i + 2xi yi + yi2
- m2U = (mX + mY )2 = m2X + 2mX mY + m2Y
Therefore:
1 X 2
ui m2U
s2U =
N
1 X 2
=
(xi + 2xi yi + yi2 ) m2X 2mX mY m2Y
N
X
X

1
1
=
x2i m2X +
yi2 m2Y +
N
N
X

1
2
xi yi mX mY
N
= s2X + s2Y + 2Cov(X, Y )

= Cov(X, X) + Cov(X, Y ) + Cov(Y, X) + Cov(Y, Y )
- Hint. Use:
- U =X +Y ;
- V ar(U ) = s2U = (1/N )
u2i m2U .
More generally:
V ar
N
X
i=1
N X
N
X
ai aj Cov(Xi , Xj )
ai Xi =
i=1 j=1
33
34
35
36
Suppose a mineralized zone as following:
VARIOGRAM: Exercise 10 - Solution

Mineralized Zone
6m
3m
6m
QZ Veins
+ Au
3m
Ni Saprolite
Zone
3m
f. 71
3m
D
f. 71a
How would you compare the similarity of B, C, and D

sample grades with respect to the grade of sample A?
How would you fare the similarity of B, C, and D sample

grades with respect to the grade of sample A?
Geology tells that:
- A-B-C line is along the best continuity direction;
- A-D line is along the worst continuity direction.
This suggests that probably:
- B closer to A than C;
- B closer to A than D;
- C may be closer to A than D, but more must be
known about the continuity contrast between the
two
directions.
37
38
39
40
Let 12 sample grades at the following locations:

(h) =
3
12
14
50m
Nh
1 X
[z(xi ) z(xi + h)]2
2Nh i=1
25m
DIRECTIONS
h
f.75
1
N(h)
(h)
N(h)
25
50
2.9
(h)
6.9
20.5
60.5
56
Compute the experimental variogram values along the

following directions:
75
100
10.0
14.5
112
150
N(h)
(h)
N(h)
(h)
15.0
2.4
51.3
2.0
(h)
50
f.76
40
30
20
1
Draw a graph of the experimental variograms along the

various directions.
10
f.77
0
0
25
50
75 100 125
41
42
43
44
The following experimental variogram values were

obtained.
10
20
30
40
(h)
.3
.5
.48
.8
.7
50
60
70
80
90
(h)
1.0
.7
.8
.9
.7
10
20
30
(h)
.3
.5
.48
.8
40
.7
50
60
70
80
90
(h)
1.0
.7
.8
.9
.7
Graph:
1.0
Fit a variogram model to these experimental values.

- Produce a graph of the fit;
- Write down the parameters of the fitted model.
HINT. Use a nugget plus a spherical structure for
the fit.
.8
.6
.4
.2
f82
0
0
10 20 30 40
50 60 70 80 90
Model equation:
(h) = 0,
h = 0,
h
h
h3 i
= 0.25 + 0.55 1.5 0.5 3 , h 45
45
45
= 0.8, h 45.
= 0.25 + 0.55 Sph(R = 45)
- Note that the total sill (C0 + C) is 0.8.
46
45

Other good/bad fits:
1.0
YES
.8
.6
NO
.4
.2
f145
0
0
10 20 30 40
50 60 70 80 90
47
48
BLOCK DISTRIBUTION: Exercise 13 - Solution
Let the following sixteen 2 4m block Au grades (g/t).
2 x 4m Blocks
3.5
0.2
3.5
2.0
1.2
2.4
3
3
0.2
2.0
1.2
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.2
0.1
2.1
0.7
5.7
3
3
0.8
2.4
1.2
0.8
0.9
0.8
0.2
0.1
2.1
2.3
0.7
5.7
1.0
2m
2.3
>= 1.5 g/t
1.0
f148
2m
f147
4m
For the 2 4m blocks (dash lines), what are:

- the mean, variance, minimum and maximum value;
- the recovered proportion of ore (tonnage) and
grade given an economic 1.5 g/t cut-off, and
assuming perfect selection.
Same questions for 4 8m blocks (thick lines).
4m
2 4m blocks:
- Intermediate results:
P
P 2
- N = 16
Aui = 25.1
Aui = 70.75
- Mean, variance:
P
- mAu =
Aui /N = 1.57g/t
P 2
2
- sAu =
Aui /N m2Au = 1.96
- Min/Max:
- 0.1 and 5.7g/t
- Recoveries:
- P (zc = 1.5) = 37%
- G(zc = 1.5) = 3.00g/t.
49
50

COMMENTS
4 x 8m Blocks
0.2
2.0
2.4
1.23
0.8
0.8
0.2
0.1
3.5
0.9
3
1.00
4m
1.2
1.23
1.83
0.7
2.3
>= 1.5 g/t
2.1
2.23
5.7
1.0 3
f149
8m
4 8m blocks:
- Intermediate results:
P
P 2
- N =4
Aui = 6.29
Aui = 10.83
- Mean, variance:
P
- mAu = Aui /N = 1.57g/t
P
- s2Au = Au2i /N m2Au = 0.24
- Min/Max:
- 1.00 and 2.23g/t
- Recoveries:
- P (zc = 1.5) = 50%
- G(zc = 1.5) = 2.03g/t.
51
2 4m VERSUS 4 8m blocks:
- Averages are the same;
- 2 4m more variable than 4 8m:
- variance larger
- smaller minimum, larger maximum
- Recoveries are different
- less dilution with smaller blocks
Recoveries depends not only on cut-off grade, but also
on support size. In fact, the full grade distribution depends on the support size.
52

This exercise can be skipped
Knowing that:
ZV (x0 ) =
V =
dx,
1
V
Z(x)dx,
V (xo)

E Z(x) = m,
all
Show that the mean of the blocks equals the mean of

the samples:

E ZV (x) = E Z(x) = m,
all

Using the following facts:
- the
and integral are linear operators;
expectation

- E Z(x)
=
m,
all x
R
- V = V dx
we have for the mean:
Z

1
E ZV (x0 ) = E
Z(x)dx
V V (xo)
Z

1
= E
Z(x)dx
V
V (xo)
Z

1
E Z(x) dx
=
V V (xo)
Z
1
=
m dx
V V (xo)
Z
m
dx
=
V V (xo)
m
= V
V
=m
53
54
55
56

This exercise can be skipped
1
V
Short notation: ZV (x) = ZV .

The block variance is equal to:
Knowing that:
ZV (x) =
Z(x)dx,
V =
V (x)

2
V ar ZV = E(ZV2 ) E(ZV ) = E(ZV2 ) m2
dx,

E Z(x) = E ZV (x) = m,
We have for E[ZV2 ]:

Z

Z
1
1
Z(x)dx
Z(x)dx
V V
V V
Z Z
1
= 2
Z(x)Z(y)dxdy
V
V V
all
x

C(h) = C(0) (h) = V ar Z(x)
ZV2 =
Show that the variance of the blocks is:

hence

1
E ZV2 = 2
V
Z Z
V

E Z(x)Z(y) dxdy
because the expectation and integral are linear operators.
57
58
We have for m2 :
m2 = m2
1
V2
Z Z
V
dxdy
because
Z
Z

Z Z
1
1
1
dxdy =
dx
dy = 1 1 = 1
V2 V V
V V
V V
Using the previous results and following facts:

- The integral is a linear operator
- Cov Z(x), Z(y) = C(hx,y ) = C(0) (hx,y )

- C(0) = RV ar
Z(x)
R
- (1/V 2 ) V V dxdy = 1
we have for V ar(ZV ) = E[ZV2 ] m2 :
V ar(ZV ) =
hence
Z Z
1
m2 dxdy
V2 V V
Z Z

1
= 2
E Z(x) E Z(y) dxdy
V
V V
m2 =
because the integral is a linear operator, and

m = E[Z(x)] = E[Z(y)] all x and y.
59
1
V2
Z Z h

E Z(x)Z(y)
V

i
E Z(x) E Z(x) dxdy
Z Z

1
Cov Z(x), Z(y) dxdy
2
V
ZV ZV

1
= 2
C(0) (hx,y ) dxdy
V
V V
Z Z
1
(hx,y )dxdy
= C(0) 2
V
V V
= C(0) (V, V )

= V ar Z(x) (V, V )
=
60

Let 10 Au sample values at centres of following blocks:
.1
.2
.7
.8
.9
1.2
2.0
2.4
3.5
5.7
with the following average and variance:

- mAu = 1.75 g/t
- s2Au = 2.74 (g/t)2

Sample Recoveries
- TS (1g/t) = 5 3000 = 15, 000t
- GS (1g/t) = (1.2 + 2 + 2.4 + 3.5 + 5.7)/5 = 2.96g/t
- QS (1g/t) = 2.96 15, 000 = 44, 400g
SMU recoveries
- An estimate of the SMU distribution can be obtained from the sample distribution using the following affine correction:
zsmu =
Assuming 3,000 tonnes per block, compute the

recovered tonnage, grade, and quantity of metal for
an economic 1.0 g/t cut-off grade.
The selective
mining units (SMU) variance is:
V ar ZSM U = 2.74 (SM U, SM U ) = 0.81
Using an affine correction, compute 10 equivalent SMU

grades corresponding to the 10 sample grades.
Repeat the recovery computation using the 10 SMU

grades.
61
ssmu
(zsamp mAu ) + mAu
ssamp
= 0.544(zsamp 1.75) + 1.75

- This provide the following 10 SMU grade values:
.85
.91
1.18
1.23
1.29
1.45
1.89
2.10
2.70
3.90
- TV (1g/t) = 8 3, 000 = 24, 000t

- GV (1g/t) = (1.18 + 1.23 + 1.29 + + 3.90)/8 =
1.97g/t
- QV (1g/t) = 1.97 24, 000 = 47, 280g
62

Comments
At the SMU level, there are more tons at a lesser grade
than anticipated from the sample distribution. The recovered quantity of gold, however, is about the same.
These differences are source of endless discussions in the
company!
This is just the beginning of the story. At the time of
mining, there will be additional dilution.
- Planned dilution: i.e. when a block of waste is sent
to the mill on purpose and vice versa;
- Unplanned dilution, due to mis-classification (the
true SMU grades are unknown), and various human
errors.
The polygonal method is equivalent to use the sample
distribution. This is why it is so wrong to use polygonal
results when computing recoveries, even if the global
average might be OK.
1/d to a high power is not better than polygonal.
Other estimation methods are better than polygonal,
but ignore the variability of the future SMUs. As a
consequence, they too can result in biased recoveries.
Even when resources are computed, some mining criteria must be considered.
63
64
ESTIMATION ERROR: Exercise 17

Suppose the following situation, where a point at location 0 has to be estimated from 2 sample values located 2m away along the best (0 1) and worst (0 2)
geological continuity directions.
Best Continuity
2m
2
?
f.141
1
2m
The variogram model is a nugget plus an anisotropic

spherical structure:

What are the estimation variances for the following estimates:
- 1 = 1, 2 = 0
- 1 = 0, 2 = 1
- 1/d2 estimate using both samples
- 1 = 2 = 0.5
- Your own intuitive choice of weights
- 1 and 2 of your choice
- Comment your results.
Hint 1: All variogram values have been computed for
you.
(h) = 0.2 + S(C = 0.8; R01 = 10m, R02 = 5m)

From this model, the following variogram values can
be computed.
- 0,1 = 0.44
- 0,2 = 0.65
- 1,2 = 2,1 = 0.70
- 1,1 = 2,2 = 0
Hint 2: Estimation variance if ONE sample only, say

sample i:
V ar(Er ) = 2(h) = 20i
65
66
ESTIMATION ERROR: Exercise 17 (Solution)
Hint 3: For more than one sample, use the point estimation variance formula:
V ar(Er ) = 2
N
X
i 0i
i=1
N X
N
X
i j ij ,
i=1 j=1
where
- 0i : variogram value between location x0 to be estimated, and location xi
- ij : variogram val. between locations xi and xj
N in the formula above is the number of samples.
Hint 4: For TWO samples, say samples 1 and 2,
the formula above can be reduced to:

V ar(Er ) =2 1 01 + 2 02

1 1 11 + 1 2 12 +

2 1 21 + 2 2 22
Polygonal estimate No. 1

z (x0 ) = 1 z(x1 )

V ar(Er ) = 2 1 0,1 1 1,1

= 2 1 0.44 1 0
= 0.88
Polygonal estimate No. 2

z (x0 ) = 1 z(x2 )

V ar(Er ) = 2 1 0,2 1 2,2

= 2 1 0.65 1 0
= 1.30
Std.Dev.(Er ) = 1.14
1/d2 estimate (also the average)

z (x0 ) = 0.5 z(x1 ) + 0.5 z(x2 )

V ar(Er ) = 2 0.5 0,1 + 0.5 0,2
0.25 1,1 + 0.25 1,2 +

0.25 2,1 + 0.25 2,2

= 2 0.5 0.44 + 0.5 0.65
0.25 0 + 0.25 0.7+

0.25 0.7 + 0.25 0
= 0.74
67
68
Intuitive estimate
Graph of the 4 estimate standard deviations.
z (x0 ) = 0.7 z(x1 ) + 0.3 z(x2 )

V ar(Er ) = 2 0.7 0,1 + 0.3 0,2
1.20
1.15
0.49 0 + 0.21 0.7+

0.21 0.7 + 0.09 0
Poly 2
1.10
0.49 1,1 + 0.21 1,2 +

0.21 2,1 + 0.09 2,2

= 2 0.7 0.44 + 0.3 0.65
= 0.71
Std.Dev.
of Error
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
0.85
Poly 1
"Best"
Intuitive
ID2
f.152
0.80
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0
Estimation Weights
W2 (Sample 2)
W1 (Sample 1)
Comments
- The worst estimate is Polygonal No.2. It picks the
sample along the worst continuity direction.
- 1/d2 and the intuitive methods are better than the
polygonal because they use 2 samples instead of 1.
- The intuitive method is a bit better than 1/d2 . It
recognizes that Sample 1 should have more weights
than Sample 2. But the difference is not large.
- A closer look at the variogram could suggest a better choice of weights. Kriging would have chosen
the best set of weights.
70
69

Best estimate (Kriging)
z (x0 ) = 1 z(x1 ) + 2 z(x2 ) ;

V ar(Er ) = 2 1 0,1 + 2 0,2
1 + 2 = 1
21 1,1 + 1 2 1,2 +

2 1 2,1 + 22 2,2
= .88 1 + 1.3 2 1.4 1 2

Minimum variance obtained if:
- Derivative of V ar(Er ) with
- Derivative of V ar(Er ) with
- and
1 + 2 = 1.
0.72
0.71
1
+2
respect to 1 = 0;
respect to 2 = 0;
+
+
= 0.44
= 0.65
=1
where is the Lagrange parameter, required by the

constraint 1 + 2 = 1.
Solution:
- 1 = 0.65
2 = 0.35
= 0.195
- V ar(Er ) = 0.705
71
72
REL. ESTIMATION ERROR: Exercise 18

Let the following 2m composite statistics:
- Mean: mDecl = 2.0 g/t
- Variance: s2Decl = 16.0
A 10x10x5m block is estimated with the following results:
- Estimated value: zB
= 5 g/t
2
- Estimation variance from correlogram: cor
= 0.04
REL. ESTIMATION ERROR: Exercise 18 - Solution

The standardized estimation variance is:
2
cor
= 0.04
The traditional estimation variance is:

2
2
trad
= cor
s2Samp = 0.04 16.0 = 0.64
The relative estimation variance is:

2
2
/m2Samp = 0.64/4.0 = 0.16
rel
= trad
i.e. the standardized estimation variance.

What is:
2
- The relative estimation variance rel
?
- A 95% confidence interval on the block estimated
value?
The local average is:

m = z = 5.0 /t
The estimation variance is:
2
2
m2 = 0.16 25.0 = 4.0
Er
= rel
The 95% confidence interval is:

h

i
P zB z 2Er 95%
P (1 < zB < 9) 95%
73
74
75
76
KRIGING: Exercise 19
Let the following situation of a point being estimated
using 4 samples:
4
x
1
2
3
4
z(x)
1
2.5
1.9
3.0
0.1m
2
3
3m
good
bad
f.126
0?
z (x0 ) =
6m
4
X
i z(xi )
i=1

grades for the following methods:
- polygonal (nearest neighbour)
- 1/d
- your intuition
Comment the pros and cons of each method.
Knowing that the variogram is:
(h) = 0.05 + 0.95 Sph(Rx = 10m, Ry = 5m)
What are the kriged weights and the kriged estimate?
Comment the results.
77
ORDINARY KRIGING: Exercise 19 - Solution (2/3)

Pros and cons of each method.
- P olygonal : simplest but least precise because uses
only 1 closest sample. Also discontinuities between
polygons.
- 1/d : better than polygonal, but does not account
for geological anisotropy, nor clustering. A problem
also with very small distances (1/0 ).
- My intuition:
good because accounts for geological anisotropy and clustering, but bad because
does it in a subjective and time consuming fashion
(manual method).
Notes:
- Some of the disadvantages of 1/d or 1/d2 can be
compensated
- 1/dp tends towards a polygonal method as the
power p increases.

Polygonal method:
- 3 = 1,
1 = 2 = 4 = 0
- z (x0 ) = 1.9
1/d method:
- Inverse distances
1/d1 = 1/6 = 0.167
1/d2 = 1/3 = 0.333
1/d3 = 1/3.002 = 0.333
1/d4 = 1/3.1 = 0.323
P4
i=1 1/di = 0.167 + 0.333 + 0.333 + 0.323 = 1.156
- Estimate
1
1
1
1
d1 z1 + d2 z2 + d3 z3 + d4 z4
z (x0 ) =
=
P4
i=1 1/di
0.167 1.0 + 0.333 2.5 + 0.333 1.9 + 0.323 3.0
= 2.25
1.156
My intuition
- Continuity better along X than Y . Sample 1,
though further away than the other samples from
location x0 , may be structurally as close.
- Samples 2, 3, and 4 are clustered, hence redundant.
Their individual weights should then be reduced.
- 1 = 0.4,
2 = 3 = 4 = 0.2
- z (x0 ) = 1.88
78

Kriging system:
1 11 +2 12
1 21 +2 22
1 31 +2 32
1 41 +2 42
1
+2
Same system with
0
+.6222
+0
.6221
.6191 +.0572
.6271 +.0662
1
+2
+3 13
+3 23
+3 33
+3 43
+3
+4 14
+4 24
+4 34
+4 44
+4
+
+
+
+
= 0,1
= 0,2
= 0,3
= 0,4
=1
variogram values (gslib/okb2d):

+.6193 +.6274 + = .465
+.0573 +.0664 + = .478
+0
+.0644 + = .478
+.0643
+0
+ = .478
+3
+4
=1
Kriging solution:
- 1 = .486,
2 = 0.231
- 3 = .195,
4 = .088,
= .145
2
- zK
(x0 ) = 1.698
K
(z(x0 )] = .611
Kriging is optimum in the sense that:
- it recognizes the geological continuity and it
anisotropy as quantified by the variogram
- it automatically declusters samples 2, 3, and 4;
- it minimizes the estimation variance.
79
Kriging is a good estimator, but is computer intensive.

80
INDICATOR KRIGING: Exercise 20

Situation: the probability of a point grade being less
than 1.5 g/t is estimated using 4 samples:
4
x
1
2
3
4
z(x)
1
2.5
1.9
3.0
0.1m
2
3
3m
good
bad
f.126
0?
6m
4
X
P z(x0 ) 1.5 =
i i1.5g/t (xi )
i=1
The variogram of the 1.5 g/t cut-off indicator is:

(h) = 0.05 + 0.95 Sph(Rx = 10m, Ry = 5m)
probabilities for the following methods:
- polygonal
- 1/d
- your intuition
- indicator kriging
HINT: Same situation as Exercise 19, Section Ordinary Kriging! Same estimation weights.
81
83
INDICATOR KRIGING: Exercise 20 - Solution

1.5 g/t cut-off indicator defined as:

1, if grade z(x) 1.5g/t
i1.5g/t (x) = i(x) =
0, otherwise.
- This means that:
- i(x1 ) = 1, i(x2 ) = 0,
i(x3 ) = 0,
i(x4 ) = 0.
Estimation weights:
- Same situation as Exercise 19
= Same weights as in Exercise 19
Polygonal method:
- 1 = 0, 2 = 0, 3 = 1,
- P z(x0 ) 1.5 = 0.00
1/d method:
- 1 = 0.144, 2 = 0.288,
0.279

- P z(x0 ) 1.5 = 0.144
= 4 = 0
3 = 0.288,
My intuition
- 1 = 0.4, 2 =
0.2, 3 = 0.2,
- P z(x0 ) 1.5 = 0.400
4 = 0.2
Indicator kriging
- 1 = .486, 2 = 0.231 3 = .195,
- P z(x0 ) 1.5 = 0.486
82
84
4 =
4 = .088

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MATH RECALL / NOTATION

PROGRAMS / FACT SHEETS

MATH RECALL - Conventions

MATH RECALL - Conventions

MATH RECALL: Exercise 1

Let 3 Au values: z1 = 1, z2 = 2, z3 = 3 g/t

1,1 1,2 1,3

2,1 2,2 2,3

Firmado digitalmente por

Normal Distribution: f(x) =

i=1 f(x +dx)2+ f(x ) dx

when lim dx 0. Note that n + in [a, b].

i=1 f(x +dx)2+ f(x ) dx

MINIMA / MAXIMA: 1 variable

The function f(x) is derivable at x = x0 if f 0 (x0 ) exists.

= lim (2x + dx)

f (x) = tg(), i.e. slope of tangent at x0 .

 MINIMA / MAXIMA: Several variables 

 MINIMA / MAXIMA: Under Constraint 

Min h(x, y, ) = f(x, y) g(x, y)

Minimum/Maximum if derivative is zero.

Random Variable (RV)

AVE, Ave: average

- RLP: relative pairwise (variogram)

 FACT SHEET (1) 

 FACT SHEET (2) 

Univariate Statistics (Model)

Minimum/Maximum when derivative is zero.

Univariate Statistics (Description)

E[aX + bY + c] = aE[X] + bE[Y ] + c

V ar(aX + bY + c) = a2 V ar(X) + b2 V ar(Y )

 FACT SHEET (3) 

 FACT SHEET (4) 

Variogram, Covariance Function

[z(xi ) z(xi + h)]2

BASIC STATISTICS: Random Variable

- X is the random variable (RV) value shown on

Random variable (RV):

Many geological attributes, CU grade, lithotype, etc.,

Attributes can be interpreted as realizations RVs:

BASIC STATISTICS: Probability

- p (2) tends towards the probability of having 2

BASIC STATISTICS: Notation

- Block/Volume grades at location x:

BASIC STATISTICS: Stationarity

UNIVARIATE DESCRIPTION: Maps

UNIVARIATE DESCRIPTION: Histogram

P(2. < Au < 4.)

Locations & Values

UNIVARIATE DESCRIPTION: Examples

UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Cumulative Histogram

A graph showing the (relative) cumulative frequencies

HISTOGRAM - Arithmetic Scale

HISTOGRAM - Logarithmic Scale

UNIV. DESC.: Location vs. Dispersion Statistics

UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Location Statistics

z(x1 ) + z(x2 ) + ... + z(xN )

- Mode: most likely value

- Median: z50 , or 50th percentile

Dispersion (Spread) Statistics

UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Dispersion Statistics

UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Statistics

coef. var. = sZ /mZ .

s2Z = Mean of Squares - Square of Mean

MINIMA / MAXIMA: Several variables

MINIMA / MAXIMA: Under Constraint

FACT SHEET (1)

FACT SHEET (2)

FACT SHEET (3)

FACT SHEET (4)

UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Various Means

UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Properties of m

UNIV. DESCRIPTION: Properties of s2

UNIV. MODEL: Parameters

UNIV. MODEL: Parameters

UNIV. MODEL: Properties of and 2

UNIV. MODEL: Expectations - Moments

UNIV. MODEL: Skewness - Kurtosis

X lognormal distribution parameters:

Y = ln(X) normal distribution parameters: