Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Out in
the UK
2009
A Comprehensive
Analysis of the Informal
Eating Out Market
Eating
Out in
the UK
2009
CONTENTS
Foreword
Executive Summary
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
21
Chapter 3
31
Chapter 4
57
Chapter 5
73
Bibliography
88
Consumer Insight
Eating
Out in
the UK
2009
A Comprehensive
Analysis of the Informal
Eating Out Market
Eating
Out in
the UK
2009
A Comprehensive
Analysis of the Informal
Eating Out Market
Executive Summary
Informal eating out is
worth in excess of 40bn
Market Definition
and Segmentation
The Informal Eating
Out market comprises
a wide variety of eating
out establishments and
locations from which
food and beverages are
bought and consumed
out of the home.
This includes informal
restaurants; fast food and
takeaway outlets; coffee shops
and sandwich bars; retail grab &
go and cafs; pubs; and catering
facilities at leisure venues; travel
sites and workplaces.
What this market does not
include is food consumed at
home, food prepared at home
for consumption out of home,
low level snacking and formal
dining. There is clearly a blurry
definition between the
boundary of informal and
formal dining and this border
has been set at an expenditure
per head of 15 and over.
Consequently, the Informal
Eating Out market can be
defined in terms of covering all
eating out meal occasions
involving a transaction with a
spend per person of 15 or less.
The major sub categories of the
Informal Eating Out market are
summarised right:
PUBS
WORKPLACE
LEISURE
TRAVEL
CATEGORY
DESCRIPTION
Restaurant that offers a
sit-down meal in a casual
environment, typically
with waited service
Carluccios, Nandos,
Pizza Hut,Wagamama
Beefeater, Harvester, JD
Wetherspoon, Toby
Carvery
Assorted contract
caterers, branded
concessions and inhouse catering solutions
Assorted contract
caterers, branded
and independent
concessions
OPERATOR
EXAMPLES
Research
Background
Substantial research has been conducted in
preparing this study of the UK Informal Eating Out
market. This has comprised four main activities:
SUMMARY OF CONSUMER, INDUSTRY EXECUTIVE
AND MARKET RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
ACTIVITY
CONSUMER
RESEARCH
NOTES
DESK
RESEARCH
FOODSERVICE
INDUSTRY
SENIOR
EXECUTIVE
RESEARCH
INDEPENDENT
OPERATOR
RESEARCH
Chapter 1
KEY POINTS
The UK Informal Eating Out
market is estimated to be
worth a sizeable 40.3 billion
in 2009
40.3bn equates to 2.1bn
spent at breakfast (5% of the
total), 17.1bn at lunch (42%),
16.7bn at dinner (42%) and
1.4bn at supper/late night
dining (3%). Both mid-morning
and afternoon snacks account
for 3.0bn (8% of the total)
Over the last 40 years, the
Informal Eating Out market
has taken an increasing share
of the total expenditure by
consumers on food and
beverages reaching 22% in
2009. This compares with just
14% in 1969
Consumers will spend on
average 12.75 per week or
663 per year on informal
eating out in 2009 this
compares with 4.44 per week
or 230 per year in 1989
Fig. 1.1 THE VALUE AND ANNUAL GROWTH OF THE INFORMAL EATING
OUT MARKET AT CURRENT PRICES, 2000-2009 - Million
6.60%
5.80%
6.80%
8.30%
5.40%
6.30%
3.80%
4.00%
3.80%
-0.50%
26,327 27,864 29,762 31,359 33,341 34,624 35,931 38,896 40,452 40,250
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Market Value
2007
2008
2009
Note: The 0.5% market contraction is based on a number of sources, most notably quarterly
performance insights from Crest, ONS Consumer Trends and assorted company trading results,
as well as from economic forecast data and surveys of outlook prospects from restaurant and
coffee shop business leaders.
Fig. 1.2 THE VALUE OF THE INFORMAL EATING OUT MARKET AT CURRENT
PRICES, 1969-2009 - Million
1,308
2,362
1969
1974
5,302
8,474
13,087
17,618
24,689
33,341
40,452
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
2009
279
261
221
233
172
142
100
75
56
16
31
15
29
1972
1976
172
132
100
72
51
1980
1984
196
1988
1992
1996
Disposable income
2000
2004
2008
The Make up
of the Market
The Informal Eating Out
market comprises
informal restaurants,
fast food and takeaway
outlets, coffee shops &
sandwich bars, retail
grab & go and cafs,
pubs, the workplace,
leisure venues and travel
locations.
INFORMAL RESTAURANTS:
An informal restaurant offers a
sit-down meal in a casual
atmosphere with a spend per
head of 15 or under. The
popularity of such restaurants is
on the rise. There are numerous
informal concepts expanding
within the market, with brands
such as Gourmet Burger Kitchen,
Nandos and YO! Sushi offering
only a part waited service; as well
as concepts such as Giraffe and
Wagamama, offering full service
but which remain fast,
convenient and well priced.
COFFEE SHOPS/SANDWICH
BARS/CAFS:
The coffee shop market has seen
considerable growth in recent
years and is a common feature of
any High Street in the UK.
Branded coffee shops such as
Starbucks, Caff Nero and Costa
Coffee have become household
names in the same way that fast
food brands have. As well as the
familiar brands, there are
numerous independent outlets.
The caf culture which has swept
the UK in recent years invites
customers to drink coffee in a
warm and inviting atmosphere.
Like coffee shops, there are
several established sandwich
bars in the UK Subway and
Greggs across the entirety of the
UK, and Pret A Manger and Eat
which are commonplace in the
South East. Unlike coffee shops,
the environment offered in
sandwich bars is more geared
towards grab & go and efficient
order transactions processing.
Traditional cafs are a
longstanding feature of the UK
Informal Eating Out market.
Thought of by many as a place to
get a fry-up and a cup of tea, the
caf still has sentiment with
many older and more traditional
UK consumers.
PUBS:
The total number of pubs in the
UK is estimated at 57,500 (British
Beer and Pub Association). A
growing share of pubs offer food,
something which has become
increasingly important since the
introduction of the Smoking B-an
in 2007 and its impact on alcohol
sales. Ongoing closures of pubs
have brought into question the
longevity of the pub in future
years. However, in terms of outlet
numbers, the pub remains one of
the largest contributors to the
Informal Eating Out market.
THE WORKPLACE:
TRAVEL:
LEISURE:
Leisure refers to locations where
food is not the primary reason for
visit but where there is food
available. Examples include
shopping centres, shopping parks,
theme parks, sports arenas, music
festivals and concerts. Depending
upon the location, food can vary
from branded outlets to
independent kiosks.
Leisure (1.2bn) 3%
11
Fast Food
and
Takeaway
Pubs
Retail Grab
Go and
Cafs
Workplace
Travel and
Leisure
Note: There is no double counting here. The travel and leisure segment as well as the workplace
have a lower number of transactions largely because many of the foodservice operators within
these sites are brands and have been counted within their relevant segments.
RANK INDUSTRY
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
LETTING OF DWELLINGS
CONSTRUCTION
EDUCATION
RETAIL DISTRIBUTION
WHOLESALE DISTRIBUTION
13
GROSS VALUE
ADDED AT BASIC
PRICES (BN)
84.8
74.0
69.3
65.2
63.0
62.1
60.2
45.9
42.1
35.9
John Hutson
19%
16%
32%
41%
Visit places
charging less than
5 per head
Visit places
charging 5-10
per head
Visit places
charging 10-15
per head
Visit places
charging more than
15 per head
7.7%
4.7%
3.4%
1.8%
2.3%
0.0%
-1.4%
1.1%
-1.6%
15
-4.1%
-6.9%
-8.3%
Burger
Casual Dining
Ethnic
Note: Values sourced from CREST data. There are specific definitions in the way the market is
assessed: Burger refers to fast food hamburger and chicken; Ethnic refers to takeaway ethnic
food (Chinese, Indian, etc.);Sandwich and Coffee refers to coffee shops, cafs and ice cream shops;
and Casual Dining refers to a sit down but informal meal.
15% 11%
51% 43%
31% 37%
Highly Concerned
Concerned
Slightly Concerned
Sept 08
May 09
3%
9%
Not Concerned
Employment Statistics
in the UK
As of March 2009, 1.36
million people were
employed across the
restaurant & caf, pub &
bar and canteen &
catering sectors, which
equates to 1 in 20 of the
UK workforce.
494.1
243.7
505.6
616.3
626.2
242.9
526.7
622.2
226.6
543
616.2
243.7
550.9
596.9
259.1
548.3
583.4
271
523.4
559.6
266.3?
521.3
529.6
257.9
509.7
484.1
251
534.7
233.8
483.8
Fig. 1.11 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE RESTAURANT & CAF, PUB & BAR AND CANTEEN & CATERING SECTORS,
MAR. 2000 MAR. 2009
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
5-9
10-19
20-49
2% 0%
0%
Fig. 1.13 GENDER SHARE OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE RESTAURANT AND CAF SECTOR, MARCH 1996 MARCH 2009
69.5%
66.5%
57.1%
60.1%
42.5%
57.4%
57.3%
54.4%
53.5%
54.4%
53.9%
52.4%
50.5%
52.8%
52.7%
45%
46.5%
45.6%
46.1%
47.6%
49.1%
47.2%
47.3%
24,689
33,341
2006
2007
42.8%
42.7%
13,067
17,618
24,689
33,341
2000
2001
2002
2003
39.9%
30.5%
1996
31.5%
1997
1998
1999
40,250
2004
2005
Male
40,250
2008
2009
Female
Fig. 1.14 PART-TIME AND FULL-TIME SHARE OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE RESTAURANT AND CAF SECTOR,
MARCH 1996 MARCH 2009
60.5%
39.5%
1996
58.7%
41.3%
1997
61.3%
38.7%
1998
61.5%
38.5%
1999
63.6%
60.9%
56.5%
59.5%
59.9%
56.5%
55%
53.8%
53.6%
52.8%
43.5%
40.5%
40.1%
43.2%
45.1%
48.1%
48.4%
47.2%
24,689
33,341
2006
2007
36.4%
39.1%
13,067
17,618
24,689
33,341
2000
2001
2002
2003
40,250
2004
2005
Part Time
40,250
2008
2009
Full Time
In a similar fashion to the gender split, there has also been a process of
equalisation within the part-time and full-time roles within restaurants
& cafs. This does not reflect a decline in the number of part-time jobs
over the 1996-2009 period, merely that they have not kept pace with the
increase in full-time positions. Part-time jobs have increased by 82,000 to
reach 326,000, whereas full-time positions have grown by 133,000 to
stand at 292,000 in March 2009.
Chapter 2
Market History
and Evolution
In This Chapter
Market history
and evolution
1960s to today
Case study 1
More mobile
consumers
Case study 2
Eating out
development focus
on Coventry
Case study 3
Timeline of UK
openings of selected
Informal Eating Out
brands
KEY POINTS
There is now
much greater
choice and higher
quality than ever
before. Brands
have become
much more evident
with a stronger
emphasis on
freshness and
innovation. And
consumers have
become far more
selective and
demanding.
Ewan Venters
23
38.5%
40.1%
41.7%
43.1%
45.9%
46.0%
9,107
9,537
10,052
10,124
11,247
11,478
11,868
12,573
13,080
13,549
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
37.1%
Share of total %
1980s
New faster food fashions
Period of strong
economic growth and
rising materialism
Emergence of more
sophisticated
sandwiches both from
Marks and Spencer and
first Pret A Manger
store opening
Rapidly expanding fast
food segment
The 1980s split opinion to some it
was a decade of greed and
conspicuous consumption, to
others, it was a period of
entrepreneurship and possibility. A
growing divide certainly emerged
between the rich and poor, with
better off families paying less tax
and enjoying the growing
abundance of new food options
including nouvelle cuisine.
What is clear is that the eighties
marked a period when several key
societal trends that we recognise
today became evident not least
the emergence of working women,
falling household sizes and the
rising importance of convenience
and healthy eating. These factors
contributed to the 1980s being
characterised by two things the
microwave and the sandwich.
More specifically, Marks and
Spencer began selling its popular
sandwiches and Prawn &
Mayonnaise was quickly
established as the best seller.
Taking inspiration, small and
independent bakers sought some
competitive protection from the
burgeoning supermarket multiples
25
>>>
Certainly prior to the recession,
premiumisation was driving
margins and putting smiles on
operators across the eating out
sector. It helped the development
of several more indulgent bakeryled concepts, including Baker &
Spice, Le Pain Quotidien and Princi.
Interestingly, these businesses
comprise retail and
Case study 1
UK residents have
become increasingly
mobile over the past 50
years
This is evident in greater car
ownership and access to cars,
more people on the road and
spending more time travelling,
and greater numbers of
commuters. All of these factors
have been beneficial and helped
support the rise of the Informal
Eating Out market. This is
through:
Providing greater access for
consumers to a wider choice of
eating out establishments
48%
57%
69%
72%
1975/1976
1985/1986
1995/1996
2005/2006
419
495
681
765
817
1971
1981
1991
2001
2007
Case study 2
Coventry is a relatively
traditional city in
Middle England with a
population of just over
300,000.
Growth
19782008 2008
1978
1988
1998
43
24
29
64
21
61
63
52
31
-30
256
227
219
127
-129
59
93
107
144
85
27
63
124
168
141
446
470
531
534
88
Case study 3
Timeline of UK Openings
from Selected Informal
Eating Out Brands
1970s
Difficult
economic times
and more focus
on eating at
home than out
1980s
New fast food
fashions,
including
burgers, ready
meals &
sandwiches
1971
Costa Coffee
1992
Wagamama
2001
Gourmet
Burger Kitchen
1992
Nandos
2004
Chopd
1995
Eat
2004
Leon
1996
Subway
2005
Canteen
1973
Pizza Hut
1980
Wendys
1997
YO! Sushi
2005
Sacred
1965
Kentucky
Fried Chicken
1974
McDonalds
1985
Dominos
1998
Giraffe
2005
Tossed
1965
Pizza Express
1977
Burger King
1986
Pret A Manger
1998
Starbucks
2008
Jamies Italian
1970s
1980s
2000s
Rise of caf
culture and
birth of many
new healthier,
niche and
premium
brands
2001
Apostrophe
1960s
29
1990s
The emergence
of fast casual
dining with
many exciting
new players
1990s
2000s
Chapter 3
Consumer
Insight
In This Chapter
The popularity of
different
establishments
KEY POINTS
Some 148 million meals are
eaten out of the home every
week in the UK
On average, this equates to 1 in
every 9 meals. Significant
variation lies around this figure
16% of the British public eat
five meals or more out of the
home every week, and 19% eat
no more than one meal a
fortnight
Most people (81%) view eating
out as a treat. However, people
are not just eating out on
special occasions. A high
percentage are doing so for
social reasons, to spend time
with their friends and family
London is the Eating Out
Capital of the UK Londoners,
on average, eat three meals
away from home every week.
People from Northern Ireland
eat out the least, eating on
average less than two meals
out of the home
Lunch is king! 43% of people eat
lunch out of the home at least
once a week
Coffee shops and sandwich bars
are the favourite weekly
destination 34% of consumers
visit one at least once a week
Local pubs are holding their
own rumours of extinction
are grossly exaggerated. The
pub is particularly popular with
young adults and the over 65s.
29% 52%
Agree
Strongly
Agree
9%
9%
1%
Neither
Disagree
Disagree
Strongly
Female
16-24, Peterborough
35-39, Leicester
78%
81%
9%
12%
8%
11%
Disagree
Neither
Agree
6%
4%
4%
3%
Dining
Treat/
Dining
Out with Celebration Out with
Friends
Family
Meal
with
Leisure
Quick
Meal-ontheMove
Routine
Meal
Break
from
Work
33
1%
1%
Boardroom
meeting
Other
79%
16%
17%
8%
78%
18%
22%
13%
21%
35%
55%
12%
7%
3%
3%
8%
42%
31%
Breakfast
Lunch
Dinner/Evening
Meal
Never
7%
5%
3%
6%
Late Night/Supper
10%
Eat out of home
Less
Same
More
9%
1%
15%
12%
13% 21%
One meal once
per fortnight
LUNCH
DINNER
BREAKFAST
4.9
2.8
0.9
0.6
=6
8
9
10
GO TO CAF/SANDWICH BAR
WORK AT HOME
18%
Dinner
=6
35
18%
Lunch
PERCENTAGE
57.4%
23.5%
18.9%
11.9%
7.8%
4.4%
4.4%
4.0%
2.7%
2.4%
19%
22%
22%
25%
47%
50%
79%
89%
11%
23%
17%
26%
12%
26%
13%
14%
15%
17%
15%
16%
11%
8%
1%
2%
1%
16%
14%
34%
15%
14%
17%
2%
2%
1%
6%
General
restaurants
Pub restaurants
Coffee
shops/cafs/
sandwich bars
Department
store/
supermarket
cafs
Workplace/
college caf/
canteen
Facilities in
fitness and
leisure centres
Seldom or never
GENERAL RESTAURANTS
PUB RESTAURANTS
WORKPLACE/COLLEGE CAF/CANTEEN
2.0
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.3
2-5 MEALS
PER WEEK
(22%)
1-2 MEALS
PER WEEK
(23%)
ONCE A
FORTNIGHT OR
LESS (19%)
Male, 18-24
Female, 25-34
Female, 35-44
Female, 55-64
Female, 65+
Above average
affluence
Average affluence
Average affluence
Average affluence
Below average
affluence
EATING OUT IS A
TREAT
65% agree
75% agree
84% agree
88% agree
90% agree
POPULAR
ESTABLISHMENTS
General restaurants,
local pubs
General restaurants
(brands mainly), pub
restaurants
Special occasion,
dining with family,
dining with friends
Special occasion,
dining with family
DINING OUT
COMPANION(S)
Self, friends
Self, friends
Partner, family
Partner, family
Family
REASONS FOR
VISITING CERTAIN
ESTABLISHMENTS
Food quality/taste,
wide variety of food
options, good value
on food and drink,
good review in
newspaper
Convenient location,
food quality/taste,
pleasant
environment, clean
restaurant, quick
service
AFFLUENCE
EATING OUT
CHANGES IN THE
LAST 12 MONTHS
EATING OUT
CHANGES IN THE
NEXT 12 MONTHS
COMMON
REASONS FOR
DINING OUT
The Popularity of
Establishments
Coffee shops, cafs and
sandwich bars dominate
in terms of the frequency
customers visit them.
General restaurants and
pubs are also popular
choices with individuals.
When respondents were asked
which establishments they have
visited in the last three months, the
local pub and the independent
restaurants came out top with the
greatest share. 52% of respondents
have visited their local pub, 44% an
independent restaurant, and 32%
an independent caf.
The strong visiting numbers for
pubs can be attributed to the sheer
number of pub outlets. Allegras
research has indicated that the pub
has sentiment with both young
adults (18-24), and the older
generation (65 and over). The pub
is popular at different times of the
day for these age groups, with the
young adults preferring to visit
pubs in the evening and older
adults during the day. Pubs have
suffered in recent years with a
number of outlets closing.
However, they are clearly
somewhere which can successfully
attract all age groups and all
classes together and close the
bridge between them. The choice
and quality of food in pubs has
been rising for several years and
the Smoking Ban introduced in
2007 further fuelled the need for
pubs to serve food. As a result, the
pub has become a competitor to
many independent restaurants.
NAME OF ESTABLISHMENT
PERCENTAGE
LOCAL PUB
52%
44%
32%
MCDONALDS
30%
28%
26%
18%
18%
STARBUCKS
15%
KFC
PIZZA HUT
13%
9%
8%
BURGER KING
8%
SUBWAY
8%
CAFF NERO
8%
We generally like to
visit the pub, have a
meal and meet
friends every
week.
Male
45-49, Leicester
Key Influences
Quality and taste of food,
above price, is the key
determinant in the value
equation it is cited as
the leading reason for
choosing a place to eat
out.
Cleanliness is considered to be
nearly as fundamental as food
quality with 71% of people
reporting it as an important aspect
to consider when choosing
somewhere to eat out.
Whilst good value for food and
drinks came out as highly
important amongst many
individuals (38%),
cheap/inexpensive food did not
rank highly as a key factor in
determining where to eat out.
This indicates that while
consumers expect value for money
something which has become a
huge priority since the economic
downturn they are not looking for
cheap food. Many would associate
cheap food with poor quality.
RANK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
=10
=10
12
=13
=13
15
IMPORTANT ASPECT
FOOD QUALITY/TASTE
PERCENTAGE
FOOD SAFETY/CLEANLINESS
CONVENIENT LOCATION
RECOMMENDATIONS BY FRIENDS/RELATIVES
QUICK SERVICE
CHEAP/INEXPENSIVE PRICES
PROMOTION/SPECIAL OFFER/DISCOUNT
73%
71%
41%
38%
30%
23%
21%
20%
19%
18%
18%
14%
11%
11%
9%
Spend Patterns
around Eating Out
The highest spend by individuals on their last eating
out occasion was for a business meeting, with an
average of 26.31 spent on a meal per person, though
this level of spend falls outside the scope of the
Informal Eating Out market.
Following a business meeting, dining out with a partner also had a high
average price tag, with spend per person of 15.80. By contrast, quick
meals on-the-move had the lowest associated spend, at 5.43.
39
Dining Out
with
Partner
Dining Out
Treat/
Dining Out
with
Celebration
with
Friends
Family
11.57
9.48
6.77
6.27
5.89
5.43
Meal with
Leisure
Other
Break
from Work
Meal with
Shopping
Routine
Meal
Quick
Meal/Onthe-Move
Fig. 3.9 HOW DO YOU THINK THE COST OF EATING OUT VERSUS EATING AT
HOME HAS CHANGED IN RECENT YEARS?
Percent of Respondents
30%
30%
40%
No change
48%
35%
25%
34%
27%
31%
Affected by credit
crunch
Not affected by
credit crunch
Less affordable
No change
More affordable
Source:
Allegra Strategies Analysis, Consumer Research, 2009
I cook at home
about twice a
week, I eat out the
rest of the time as
I am lazy.
Female
16-24, Croydon
7%
34%
35%
22%
32%
21%
24%
33%
61%
52%
55%
59%
59%
65%
64%
59%
32%
14%
10%
18%
9%
15%
12%
9%
Cook from
scratch
Eat takeaway
meals at home
Eat at pub
restaurants
Visit general
restaurants
Use drivethrough
facilities
Less
Same
More
I went to a local
Chinese. I had
never been there
and wanted to try
a new thing.
Female
35-39, Blackpool
The general trend, as illustrated in Figure 3.11 is that people are cooking
from scratch more than they have been previously (32%) and eating
ready meals (34%) and takeaways less (35%). The trend for coffee shops
is still strong, with 18% of people going to coffee shops more than they
were a year ago and 15% of people eating more at pubs than they were
12 months ago.
Despite these trends in establishments, and as noted in Chapter 1,
individuals over the last 12 months have eaten out less across the board.
This is due to less disposable income and/or fears over their job security.
Aside from this, however, Figure 3.11 shows some interesting patterns in
eating behaviours which are emerging.
.
43
We prefer to cook
healthier goods at
home than going
out and spending
so much, sometimes
for low quality
foods.
Female
35-39, Peterborough
My eating habits
have changed
dramatically as
I cook more now.
Female
25-29, Peterborough
55%
17%
2%
26%
1-2 snacks
3-4 snacks
5+ snacks
None, I dont
snack
According to Allegras
research, structured meal
occasions are not being
replaced by regular
snacking.
55% of people have just 1-2 snacks
per day and only 2% have more
than five. This suggests that
Britons are eating snacks in
between their full meals, but not
instead of them. People are also
not skipping many meals over the
two week Dining Diaries, only 6%
of meals were skipped.
Mid-morning
snack
Lunch
Midafternoon
snack
Dinner
Late night
snack
Case study 1
Regionality Difference
Perhaps unsurprisingly,
London is the Eating
Out Capital of the UK.
Table. 3.7 AVERAGE SPEND PER PERSON ON THE LAST MEAL OCCASION
BY REGION
RANK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
REGION
LONDON
NORTHERN IRELAND
SOUTH WEST
SCOTLAND
SOUTH EAST
EAST
WALES
NORTH WEST
WEST MIDLANDS
NO. OF
RESTAURANTS POPULATION
AND CAFS
(000)
POPULATION
PER
RESTAURANT
12,330
7,653
621
1,995
1,742
891
5,495
5,146
937
5,405
5,117
947
8,625
8,245
956
5,530
5,602
1,013
2,850
2,966
1,041
4,495
5,133
1,142
6,015
6,890
1,145
4,565
5,390
1,181
In terms of spend by region on
11 EAST MIDLANDS
last reported eating out occasion,
3,665
4,361
1,190
Scotland tops the ranking. On
12 NORTH EAST
2,115
2,557
1,209
average, Scots spend 13.91 each
on eating out a week, whereas
Source: Allegra Strategies Analysis, ONS, 2009
frugal consumers from Wales and
the North East of England spend
only 10.92 and 10.62
Table. 3.8 AVERAGE SPEND PER PERSON ON THE LAST MEAL OCCASION
respectively. Londons ranking is
BY REGION
not as high as might be expected.
This reflects the significantly
RANK REGION
AVERAGE SPEND PER PERSON
greater use of cafs and sandwich
bars during lunchtimes.
1
SCOTLAND
13.91
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
SOUTH WEST
NORTHERN IRELAND
EAST OF ENGLAND
SOUTH EAST
LONDON
EAST MIDLANDS
YORKSHIRE
NORTH WEST
WEST MIDLANDS
WALES
NORTH EAST
45
13.49
12.76
12.61
12.58
12.39
12.37
12.33
11.38
11.13
10.92
10.62
Fig. 3.14 PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE EATING LUNCH OUT OF THE HOME AT LEAST ONCE A WEEK BY REGION
Percent of Respondents
49%
48%
46%
45%
43%
42%
41%
41%
41%
40%
39%
37%
London
Northern
Ireland
North
East
South
West
Yorkshire
East
Midlands
Wales
North
West
South
East
Scotland
East of
England
West
Midlands
Fig. 3.15 PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE EATING DINNER OUT OF THE HOME AT LEAST ONCE A WEEK BY REGION
Percent of Respondents
39%
38%
32%
32%
32%
30%
29%
28%
28%
27%
25%
19%
London
West
Midlands
Wales
North
East
East
Midlands
North
West
East of
England
South
East
South
West
Scotland
Yorkshire
Northern
Ireland
Case study 1
EAST
MIDLANDS
FREQUENCY
AVERAGE
SPEND PER
PERSON ON
LAST EATING
OUT OCCASION
12.37
PREFERRED
OUTLETS
EAST OF
ENGLAND
12.61
Coffee shops,
general
restaurants
(brands and
independents) are
visited frequently
ATTITUDES,
OPINIONS AND
BEHAVIOUR
LONDON
12.39
10.62
REGION
NORTHERN
IRELAND
FREQUENCY
AVERAGE
SPEND PER
PERSON ON
LAST EATING
OUT OCCASION
12.76
PREFERRED
OUTLETS
Frequent coffee
shops the most
Have cut back on
visiting fast food
chains the most in
the last year
SCOTLAND
SOUTH EAST
SOUTH WEST
WALES
11.38
13.91
ATTITUDES,
OPINIONS AND
BEHAVIOUR
12.58
Highest number
to have visited a
kebab shop in the
last three months
13.49
Most likely to go
out to friends
houses to eat
10.92
Visit pub
restaurants the
most with 39%
visiting a pub at
least once a
fortnight
Case study 1
WEST
MIDLANDS
FREQUENCY
AVERAGE
SPEND PER
PERSON ON
LAST EATING
OUT OCCASION
11.13
PREFERRED
OUTLETS
ATTITUDES,
OPINIONS AND
BEHAVIOUR
The most
frequent fast food
visitors 38% visit
an outlet at least
once a fortnight
49
12.33
The Northern
Irish are the
most avid coffee
shop users
58% visit one at
least once a
week. They also
eat lunch out the
most and dinner
out the least
Proportionately,
people from the
East of England
eat the most
takeaway meals
People from
Yorkshire are
more concerned
with receiving
attentive
customer service
than they are fast
service. They eat
out less than any
other region with
the exception of
Northern Ireland
who eat out the
least
People from
the East of
England
have cut
back their
visits to
places
charging
less than 5
Case study 2
Age differences
Fig. 3.17 FAST FOOD ESTABLISHMENT USERS BY AGE. How often do you eat
out in the following establishments?
Percent of Respondents Analysis by Fast Food Restaurant
and Age
17%
26%
45%
33%
65%
8%
18%
14%
15%
16%
25%
23%
15%
22%
11%
15%
12%
10%
9%
34%
22%
17%
15%
8%
6%
8%
3%
4%
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
8%
Seldom or never
79%
YOUNGER
MIDDLE AGED
25-34
This age group eat out less
than the young &
adventurous but more than
the retired-elderly
SENIOR
& ELDERLY
55-65+
OLDER
MIDDLE AGED
25-34
Eating at a convenient
location is more important
to this age group than the
other age groups, but less
important than it is to the
senior generation
They are more concerned
that healthy food options
are available
Workers within this age
group tend to take a packed
lunch for their lunch during
their working day
8.97
11.77 12.23
14.16
13.00 12.40
18-24
25-34
45-54
55-64
35-44
65+
Case study 3
Dining diaries
45 individuals across
age groups, sociodemographics and
regions within the UK
were asked to fill in a
14 day diary
documenting their
eating patterns
throughout the day,
both in and out of the
home.
10/06/2009 18:00-20:00
Q3
MEAL OCCASION
Q4
Q5
Q6
DINNER
JUICE
Q7
PERSONS PRESENT
Q8
Q9
IN FRONT OF TV?
NO ANSWER
NO ANSWER
53
74%
11%
8%
8%
0-5
5-10
10-15
15 and
over
Table. 3.12 EATING DIARY: BEST AND WORST ASPECT OF VISIT WHEN EATING OUT
RANK BEST ASPECT OF THE VISIT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
GOOD FOOD
NOTHING
QUICK SERVICE
TOO EXPENSIVE
GOOD COMPANY
CHEAP/INEXPENSIVE
SLOW SERVICE
NOTHING
RUSHED/BUSY
IT WAS A TREAT
OTHER
FAMILY TIME
POOR ATMOSPHERE
TOO NOISY
LACK OF CLEANLINESS
UNFRIENDLY STAFF
55
10%
More in the next
12 months
70%
20%
We will be eating
out less in the next
year unless
finances improve.
Female
16-24, Leicester
Chapter 4
Eating Out
Mega Trends
In This Chapter
KEY POINTS
Consumer and industry executive
research reveals two noneconomic mega trends that are
shaping the industry today and
will continue to do so in the future
the rise of healthy eating and
the demand for local sourcing
of food
Healthy eating is the most
influential non-economic
consumer trend cited by industry
leaders while local sourcing is the
most influential menu trend
67% highlighted its importance
Healthy eating is a hugely
important consumer trend and is
here to stay. Customers within
the Informal Eating Out market
look set to become more health
conscious and more aware of
calorie consumption and this
will force more suppliers and
operators to enhance the
healthiness of their menu options
Nearly half of consumers have
changed their eating out habits to
become more healthy. Consuming
more fruit and vegetables (23%)
and reducing fat intake (19%) are
the leading changes made
Consumers choose healthier
options more often during midmorning snacks (55%) and at
lunchtime (48%). They are least
likely to do so during dinner
(22%) and when snacking late at
night (14%)
There are four distinct healthy
eating consumer segments, based
on their levels of commitment to,
and interest in, healthier eating:
Table 4.1 WHICH ETHICAL INITIATIVES ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT FOR EATING
OUT ESTABLISHMENTS TO ENGAGE IN?
RANK ETHICAL INITIATIVE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Fig. 4.1 MOST INFLUENTIAL FUTURE MENU TRENDS OVER THE NEXT 3-5 YEARS
67%
65%
20%
19%
18%
13%
12%
12%
11%
10%
Locally
sourced
products
Healthy
eating
Allergy free
items
Fairtrade &
ethically
sourced
products
Free-range
products
Smaller
portion sizes
Vegetarian
options
Influence of
celebrity
chefs
Greater
appreciation
of fine wines
Coffee
culture
59
CONSUMER TREND
PRICE CONSCIOUSNESS
HEALTHY EATING
LOCAL PROVENANCE
2008
2007
N/A
13
15
10
10
12
Fig. 4.1 KEY INFLUENCES DRIVING THE GROWING IMPORTANCE OF HEALTHY EATING
MEDIA INFLUENCES
Increasing health
coverage
Availability of
information
Evolving cookery
programmes
Celebrity influences
CORPORATE
INFLUENCES
New product
opportunities
Marketing messages
CSR initiatives
Competitive
differentiation
SOCIETAL INFLUENCES
Changing lifestyle habits
Growing concern over obesity
Greater health consciousness
Wider well-being awareness
GROWING
IMPORTANCE OF
HEALTHY EATING
CONSUMER
INFLUENCES
Increased demand
Growing knowledge
Rising expectations
Greater information
availability
GOVERNMENT
INFLUENCES
Increased labelling
information
Product content
targets and advertising
restrictions
Healthy eating
initiatives
Focus on school
dinners
30-34, Peterborough
48% 52%
Yes
No
Fig. 4.4 CHANGES MADE WHEN EATING OUT REGARDING HEALTHY EATING
When eating out of home, what changes have you made concerning healthy eating in the last
12 months? Percentage of Respondents
23%
19%
12%
11%
11%
10%
9%
8%
8%
6%
Eaten more
fruit & veg.
Reduced fat
Reduced
sugar/
sweets
Drunk more
water
Eaten less
fast food
Eaten
smaller
portions
Reduced salt
Reduced
calorie
intake
Reduced
carbohydrates
Drunk less
alcohol
Analysis of the
behaviours and attitudes
from over 2,000
household interviews has
produced a four-fold
categorisation of
consumer types in
relation to their
enthusiasm for, and
engagement with, healthy
eating:
Indulgent-led Adventurers
I like to look
through the menu
and choose
whatever I fancy.
However, I rarely
have a dessert.
Female
50-54, London
35-39, Scotland
Female
40-44, Aberdeen
Disciplined Eaters 8%
Healthy Eating Pragmatists 47%
Indulgent-led Adventurers 32%
Healthy Eating Rejectors 13%
Source: Allegra Strategies Analysis, 2009
GENDER, AGE
AND HOUSEHOLD
AFFLUENCE AND
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
EATING
PREFERENCES
FAVOURED EATING
OUT VENUES
HEALTHY EATING
ATTITUDES
63
DISCIPLINED
EATERS
HEALTHY
EATING
PRAGMATISTS
INDULGENT-LED
ADVENTURERS
HEALTHY
EATING
REJECTERS
Above average
affluence
No distinct bias
Below average
affluence levels
Eating out is a
treat, more cooking
from scratch and
packed lunches
Likes independent
cafs and local pub,
including those
with carvery
Wide repertoire
including informal
restaurants, fast
food units and
pubs
Agree that
insufficient choice
of healthy eating
options exists and
preference towards
introduction of
calorie labelling
Do not subscribe to
the view that
insufficient healthy
options are
available, but
balance of opinion
in favour of calorie
labelling
Minimal changes
to dietary habits,
strong preference
for taste over
health and lowest
desire to see calorie
labelling
Healthy Eating
by Daypart
It is a recognised eating
out trend that people eat
more healthily at the
start of the week, but
that this changes to
become more indulgenceled as the week
progresses.
It is also the case that eating out is
more health-oriented during the
first part of the day, and becomes
distinctively less so during evening
and at night.
Analysis of consumers eating out
behaviours found that, on average,
only on 38% of eating occasions
was a conscious decision made to
choose a more healthy option. This
proportion was highest for a midmorning snack at 55%, but lowest,
at 14%, for a late night snack.
Interestingly, while consumers
might make an effort to eat
healthier breakfasts at home, this
is less evident when they are on
the go.
MEAL OCCASION
BREAKFAST
MID-MORNING SNACK
LUNCH
MID-AFTERNOON SNACK
DINNER
LATE-NIGHT SNACK
OVERALL AVERAGE
YES
NO
to Healthy
Option
to Healthy
Option
34%
66%
55%
45%
48%
52%
25%
75%
22%
78%
14%
86%
38%
62%
FOCUS
BALANCE
SLOW
POSITIVE
SUSTAINABLE
KEY
COMPONENTS
BUYING
BRITISH
FAIRTRADE
ABOUT
Buying British is a relatively recent, but fast growing phenomenon amongst
operators and consumers alike. People buy British to support the local
economy, as well as reduce concern over food miles
Britains leading supermarkets have taken steps to increase their UK
sourcing, particularly for meat products
The Red Tractor logo is now commonly found on products, providing
assurance that food has been sourced from high quality British producers
In September 2009 the annual British Food fortnight will again bring this
topic to the forefront, highlighting the diversity and quality of UK produce
ORGANIC
RAINFOREST
ALLIANCE
Rainforest Alliance
works to conserve
biodiversity and ensure
sustainable livelihoods,
by transforming landuse practices, business
practices and consumer
behaviour
SEASONAL
PRODUCTS
Research clearly
highlights that
consumers are keen to
know more about the
origin of their food.
78% of respondents agreed that fast
food and takeaway outlets should
provide more of this information.
Amidst this rising concern, some
specific trends and campaigns have
sprung up, which are outlined in
Table 4.7.
Of these, Fairtrade and organic are
perhaps the most established, and
whilst the trend for Fairtrade food
has remained robust, demand for
organic has waned. Organic
produce has suffered in the midst of
the economic downturn as people
are unwilling to pay the premium
typically charged as they do not feel
organic food offers value for money.
Buying British is a trend which has
gained momentum recently and
has become a key aspect of demand
from consumers. Equally,
seasonality has increased in
popularity with consumers and
with operators responding to this
with more frequent changes in
menus. The number of farmers
markets in the UK has drastically
increased in the last five years.
There are now around 800 farmers
markets in the UK today, compared
with 450, five years ago.
It's important to
know what they are
selling in fast food
chains. They mostly
sell cheap food so
I'm worried about
what I am eating.
Female
30-34, Peterborough
UK sourced food is
more expensive
and I don't want to
pay more just for
UK labelled food.
Female
30-34, Cardiff
As long as the
food looks and
tastes good, I don't
care where it
comes from.
Female
Neither 21%
Agree 59%
16-24, Blackpool
I prefer eating
food sourced from
the UK in order to
support local
suppliers.
67
Male
35-39, Cardiff
For health
reasons, I would
want to know the
origin of my food.
Male
16-24, Blackpool
22%
22%
18%
19%
17%
18%
23%
23%
56%
55%
65%
63%
A/B
C1
C2
D/E
Disagree
Neither
Agree
30%
23%
27%
19%
22%
23% 26?%
23%
14%
16%
20%
15%
47%
50%
52%
58%
67%
69%
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
Disagree
Neither
Agree
POSSIBLE
2008
2009
58% 64%
19% 24%
23% 12%
Agree
Neither
Disagree
Provenance has
been a growth
area. However, we
Provenance is
have seen evidence
increasingly
of reduced
important to our
enthusiasm for this
consumers and I
trend as the
would say that a
recession has
good many actually
progressed.
now expect it as a
Stephen Clifford
given, but at no
Marketing Controller, Brakes
extra cost.
Julia Hatcher
Category Manager
Foodservice, Sainsburys
69
More freshness,
provenance and
improvement in
quality.
Ben Bartlett
Seasonality and
provenance of
produce will be
highlighted.
Will Smith
More focus on
lighter, healthier
ingredients; item
provenance
becoming explicit in
more dish
descriptions;
stronger flavours
and global
spicing.
Commercial Manager
Leading Restaurant Group
Case study
Pret A Manger
Sourcing
ORIGIN OF PRODUCTS
Sources British products and local products where possible, e.g.
English apple juice and Wiltshire-cured ham
Only uses Open Barn chickens
Only uses organic milk
All eggs are free-range
All products are authentic provides consumers with full details of
the origin of products, for example, Fairtrade fruit from the Philippines
SUSTAINABILITY
Bluefin tuna is no longer on the menu until supply from sustainable
fisheries can be guaranteed
Quality
FRESHNESS
Fresh ingredients are delivered daily
Products are made fresh in store each day and leftovers are given to
charity
Shelf life of coffee beans is limited to two weeks to ensure freshness
and, in a unique initiative, unused beans are composted
Supply Chain
Thorough knowledge of product origin, farming practises, rearing,
harvesting, production and delivery
Fig. 4.11 THE MOST IMPORTANT ETHICAL INITIATIVES OVER THE NEXT 5 YEARS
35%
33%
32%
31%
28%
26%
26%
22%
19%
15%
Energy
efficiency
Ethical
sourcing
Reducing
carbon
footprint
Recycling
Reduced
packaging
Waste Mgt
Sustain-able
packaging
Local
sourcing
Employee
development
programmes
Reducing
food miles
Chapter 5
Medium-long term
business
imperatives
Up and coming
brands
73
KEY POINTS
After an envisaged 0.5%
contraction in 2009, the Informal
Eating Out market is forecast to
see a modest recovery in 2010
with growth of 0.5%-1.0%. Rising
unemployment will remain a
concern and a barrier to a
stronger pick-up
The recession will lead to a lasting
legacy of enhanced value
consciousness by consumers as
they become more demanding
about their eating out, with
higher expectations of the quality
of their food and of the perceived
value for money
Established underlying trends of
rising affluence, growing mobility
and more youthful older
consumers will support stronger
growth in eating out over the
medium-long term. Following an
Olympics boost in 2012, the
market is forecast to reach
47.5bn by 2014, with a CAGR*
of 3.4%
Foodservice will play a greater
role in the reinvigoration of the
High Street as a more leisureoriented destination but the
pace of this will be set by
landlords softening in rental
expectations
An Introduction
The next 5-10 years will be very different to the last, as
consumers will become more value conscious and operators
focus on ways to improve their value equations. However,
scope to achieve this via cutting prices will be limited and
without loyal customers, much harder still.
Alastair Fairgrieve
Short-Term Expectations
Table 5.1 ANNUAL GROWTH IN GDP, UNEMPLOYMENT, AVERAGE EARNINGS, INFORMAL EATING OUT MARKET AND FOOD
RETAIL SALES 2004-2010F
AVERAGE EARNINGS
1.7%
2.7%
3.0%
0.7%
-3.5%
-0.1%
4.8%
4.9%
5.6%
5.5%
5.8%
8.2%
9.4%
4.4%
4.8%
3.2%
4.2%
3.6%
1.3%
1.7%
6.3%
3.8%
3.8%
8.3%
4.0%
-0.5% 0.5%-1.0%
4.0%
3.2%
3.6%
4.2%
5.8%
2.0% 2.0%-3.0%
75
QUICK RECOVERY
SLOW RECOVERY
0%
Within 3
months
3-6
months
6-12
months
12-18
months
18-24
months
More than
24 months
I think those
companies that are
continuing to
innovate and invest
during the
recession will be
the ones who
accelerate out of it.
In my personal
opinion, both Costa
and McDonalds
come to mind.
Malcolm Plows
Recessionary Legacy
Sustained or Not?
Industry executives
broadly fall into two
camps about whether
this recession will have
a lasting impact.
On one hand, there is the view that
there is a certain amount of
jumping on a recessionary
bandwagon, and that is has to be
borne in mind that economic
activity is cyclical and that
consumers are fickle. On the other,
there is the expectation that we
are on the cusp of a genuine
turning point, one that will see the
sustained re-appraisal by
consumers of how they trade off
quality against price and develop
an enhanced understanding of
what good value for money means
to them. Significantly, the majority
of interviewees were in the latter
camp and argued that there will be
more thriftiness on the part of
consumers and clients in the
future.
77
Medium-Long Term
Business Imperatives
With ever more
demanding consumers,
the corporate response
lies with operators adding
more value to the
customer visit.
Most noticeably, foodservice
companies will be going back to
basics and focusing in on their
core competencies and points of
difference. This will result in
growing segmentation and
specialisation, a more competitive
marketplace and require much
greater levels of customer insight
and dialogue to build loyalty. These
aspects of the future shape of the
Informal Eating Out market are
each worth commenting upon:
GROWING SPECIALISATION
AND SEGMENTATION
It is a common feature of markets
that, as they mature, they become
more specialised and segmented,
as operators carve out niche
concepts and look to exploit
smaller pockets of demand in a
more saturated market. This is
already happening in many areas
of the Informal Eating Out market.
Examples include the growth of
more types of South East Asian
cuisine, such as with Balinese,
Malaysian and Thai; and the
increase in premium burger
concepts, including the Gourmet
Burger Kitchen, Byron and Nandos.
This trend has much further scope
to be developed, both in cuisine
types and exploiting gaps in
prevailing price architectures. In
due course, there will be a stronger
boost from premium product
innovation, but the real impetus at
the moment lies with growing
MORE COMPETITION
The good news for companies in
the sector is that, over the
medium-long term, there is
forecast to be more meals
consumed out of the home. The
bad news is that it is going to be a
more competitive marketplace.
This latter point, however, needs
clarification on two fronts.
Firstly, there will not necessarily be
more competitor outlets. As with
the natural market maturity
process, it will migrate towards a
less fragmented, more
consolidated market structure.
Larger foodservice brands benefit
from significantly higher levels of
79
GREATER CUSTOMER
INSIGHT
Compared with the UKs food
retailers, foodservice operators
remain relatively primitive. Many
are still not supported by good till
and management information
systems to provide valuable real
time insight on sales trends and
reaction to specific pricing and
promotional activities. A larger
number do not operate any form of
sophisticated (i.e. smart card)
loyalty/reward scheme. These
provide more detailed information
about individual consumers
buying habits and enable operators
to develop better-informed
relationships with their customers.
The recession may well be serving
to curtail investment in non day-today, business-critical initiatives, but
this is going to be an area where
Medium-Long Term
Expectations
Research undertaken
with senior executives
across the restaurant
industry, as well as with
owners and managers of
UK independent
restaurants, reveal that
fast casual dining is
expected to register the
highest growth over the
next three to five years.
Fast-casual is a
convenient, easy
way to go out and
have good food
without feeling
formal, and then to
also be able to go
and do other
things.
Group Marketing
Manager
Table 5.2 CUISINE TYPES EXPECTED TO GROW THE FASTEST OVER THE NEXT
3-5 YEARS
GASTRO PUBS
INDEPENDENT RESTAURANTS
PUB/BAR RESTAURANTS
FASTFOOD
BISTROS
LOCAL/TRADITIONAL FOOD
Fig. 5.2 RESTAURANT BUSINESS MODELS EXPECTED TO GROW THE FASTEST OVER THE NEXT 3-5 YEARS
Percent of Respondents
64%
13%
11%
8%
2%
1%
1%
0%
Fast casual
dining
Fast food
Pub
restaurant
Gastro pub
Fine dining
Brasseries
Other
Hotel dining
Based on a combination of
economic forecasts, past
performance and industry
executive interviews, Allegra has
produced a five year growth
forecast for the Informal Eating
Out market. A market value of
47.5bn is predicted by 2014, which
equates to a CAGR (Compound
Annual Growth Rate) of 3.4%. In
part due to the continuation of a
relatively low inflationary outlook,
this growth rate is expected to be
the lowest over the past 25 years.
Nevertheless, this market growth is
forecast to generate an estimated
increase in employment within the
sector of between 3%-5%.
33.3
40.3
47.5
7.0%
6.2%
3.8%
3.4%
*Note: i.e. 1994 - 1999, 1999 - 2004 etc. Source: Allegra Strategies Analysis, 2009
INFORMAL RESTAURANTS
Short-Term Prospects
- Further fall-out of independent
restaurants and weaker chains as
a result of the economic decline
particularly those failing to
provide value for money and/or
good quality food
- Margins will continue to be
squeezed as the consumer
discount junkie forces them to
keep up promotions and
discounts
- More experience will be gained
around their management of
promotions operators will be
more knowledgeable about which
tactics are better able to drive
footfall, repeat custom and higher
spend more profitably than
others
- Stronger justification of price
points and communication of
value messages
Long-Term Prospects
- There is a positive long-term
outlook, with stronger expansion
opportunities beyond the
South East
Long-Term Prospects
- Fast food and takeaway will have
to work hard not to fall out of
favour given the rise in healthy
eating and concern over food
origin operators will have to
become more transparent in order
to appease consumers of their
concerns
- Pace of growth in direct and
indirect competition (e.g. rising
supermarket competition) is
expected to exceed demand,
making life harder for takeaway
operators
- Fast food chains will have to
deliver a broader value for money
proposition
- New forms of healthy fast food
independents and chains will
emerge, with operators like Leon
already leading the way
- The provision of drive-thrus will
increase
COFFEE SHOPS/SANDWICH
BARS/CAFS
FAST FOOD AND TAKEAWAY
Short-Term Prospects
- Favourable takeaway prospects
over the next 18 months as
consumers remain price conscious
and continue dining in more
- Physical expansion opportunities
for the fast food brands with the
benefit of more advantageous
property deals
Short-Term Prospects
- Short dips in comparable store
sales growth due to the economic
and footfall declines
- Scaling back of physical expansion
- Some of the upper end deli and
sandwich bars will have to lower
prices to remain competitive as
the bar is raised by mass market
operators
Eating Out in the UK 2009 82
Long-Term Prospects
- Favourable prospects with ongoing trends to urban caf culture
and growth in branded food
concepts expected to continue for
at least the next five years
- There will be a greater blurring
between coffee shops and
sandwich bars in terms of the instore environment and experience
- Coffee shops will look to extend
their daypart offering
- Stronger expansion into smaller
towns and larger centre in-fill
with smaller formats
- An increased number of
convenience stores with
enhanced grab & go ranges
PUBS
RETAIL GRAB & GO AND
CAFS
Short-Term Prospects
- Supermarkets will continue to fare
well during the recession, with
consumers opting for
supermarkets meal deals as part
of increased promotional activity
- Higher end product development
will be on hold as supermarkets
focus on volumes and price-led
activity rather than innovation
- Greater Focus on entry price point
ranges
Long-Term Prospects
- More impactful grab & go
displays with better
merchandising, positioning and
signage
- The variety and packaging of grab
& go food will develop further
83
Short-Term Prospects
- Difficulties on wet sales with
people choosing to drink at home
rather than out of home leading
to further closures and churn of
pubs across different operators
- The number of pubs selling food
will increase, making them a
cheaper alternative to dining at
restaurants
- More aggressive price-led
propositions to drive footfall
- Greater communication of pump
prices to portray stronger value
message on alcohol
- Favourable summer weather
offsets impact from weak
sporting calendar
Long-Term Prospects
- Pubs continue to struggle to
develop core alcohol sales and
greater efforts made to sell a
wider range of beverages
WORKPLACE
Short-Term Prospects
- Further decline in footfall with
increased unemployment
- Impact from greater numbers
bringing in a packed lunch to save
money
- There will be greater promotional
usage
- Increased focus on healthy eating
initiatives
Long-Term Prospects
- Greater challenges in cost
effectively delivering greater
choice and customised solutions
- Caterers will be more mindful
about what is happening on the
High Street and become more
commercial, though unlikely there
will be a strong presence of
brands
- Greater consolidation big players
as well as niche high service
players will remain
- Increased focus by contract
caterers on widening their service
propositions
LEISURE
TRAVEL
Short-Term Prospects
Short-Term Prospects
Long-Term Prospects
- Favourable prospects for
foodservice within leisure sectors
with strong grey market appeal
Long-Term Prospects
- More mobile units and standalone kiosks which take up less
floorspace will be used as
passenger numbers increase
Case study 1
85
ESTABLISHED
CONSUMER
TRENDS
Healthy Eating
Convenience
More Demanding
ESTABLISHED
SOCIETAL
INFLUENCES
Ageing
Demographics
Family
Fragmentation
Rising Obesity
EMERGING
CONSUMER TRENDS
Value
Consciousness
Authenticity &
Local Sourcing
Experience-led
EVOLVING
INFORMAL
EATING OUT
MARKET
EMERGING SOCIAL
INFLUENCES
Growing Ethnicity
Declining Levels
of Trust
More Online
Case study 2
Upcoming Brands
within the Informal
Eating Out Market
Branded chains are
going to take a greater
presence within the
Informal Eating Out
market.
Jamies Italian
Jamies Italian offers authentic, affordable, good quality Italian
food. UK customers, of varying affluence, are able to enjoy
celebrity chef cooking on the High Street.
Leon
Leon is a quirky brand that has a differentiated
identity. It offers healthy and wholesome food, only
cooking with seasonal ingredients. Taste is not compromised.
Ping Pong
Ping pong offers light healthy, good tasting Asian food in an
informal environment it also offers unique and authentic teas
and cocktails.
Sacred
Sacred has brought the New Zealand caf experience to London
giving consumers gourmet coffee, including Flat Whites, herbal
tea and good food.
Tossed
Healthy food is at the heart of Tossed which provides
fresh salads which are made-to-order, giving
consumers choice, great tasting food and sizeable portions.
Vapiano
Vapiano is a new and entirely modern concept in fast casual,
offering made-to-order pizzas, pasta and salads along with a full
service bar.
Case study 3
HOME-BASED
ENTERTAINMENT
Consumer: More traditional,
Discerning, Foodie, Likes
entertaining and Values-led
Market Implications: Polarising
market, Demonstration
of food and CSR values,
Growth of localised branding
and sourcing
MORE PROSPEROUS
Market Implications:
Depressed trading conditions,
High business failures,
Growth in franchises, Local
and regional food focus
Source: Allegra Strategies Analysis, 2009
87
VALUE-LED EXPANSION
Consumer: VFM sensitive,
Promotion and convenience
hungry, High snacking
LESS PROSPEROUS
RETRENCHMENT &
RATIONALISATION
Consumer: Price conscious,
More self-reliance and
Limited eating-out repertoires
ABUNDANT CONFIDENCE
Consumer: Pleasure-seeking,
Youthful, Choice-hungry,
Customised and Pampered
Bibliography
Referenced Sources:
(1) Allegra Strategies, Mid-Year Market Update & UK Coffee Leader Survey, 2009
(2) Allegra Strategies, Senior Executive Top of Mind Survey, 2009
(3) Allegra Strategies, UK Restaurant Leader Survey, 2009
(4) British Beer & Pub Association: www.beerandpub.com
(5) CIPD Recruitment Retention and Turnover Report, 2008
(6) Confederation of British Industry, www.cbi.org.uk
(7) Ernst & Young ITEM Club
Eating
Out in
the UK
2009
A Comprehensive
Analysis of the Informal
Eating Out Market
(8) Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Family Food, 2007
(9) Food Standards Agency, Eat well, be well, How we used to eat
www.eatwell.gov.uk
(10) IGD, Shopper Trends, 2009
(11) NPD Group, CREST data, 2009
Disclaimer
Corporate References
(28) Wide variety of foodservice operators within the IEO market, including: Burger
King; Carluccios; Greggs; Jamies Italian; KFC; Leon; Marks and Spencer;
McDonalds; Ping Pong; Pizza Express; Pret A Manger; Sacred; Tossed; Vapiano;
Wagamama; Whitbread Group, YO! Sushi
(29) NGOs and relevant bodies and associations, including: Fairtrade, Rainforest
Alliance, Red Tractor
Eating
Out in
the UK
2009
A Comprehensive
Analysis of the Informal
Eating Out Market