Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS:
SLOW ONSET
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS:
What it is, why should we care, and what we can do about it
Introducing
the new logo:
basic English versions
There are four versions of the basic logo:
1 red with white type (main version)
2 black with white type
(for one-colour/low-cost jobs, or
occasionally for four-colour jobs where
appropriate. For example, for more
reflective or youth applications see black
majority churches leaflet, 05 03)
3 white with red type
4 white with black type
(3 and 4 only for use on
dark backgrounds)
Executive Summary
PART 1
PART 2
What is SOI
Whats at Stake
- Food security
- Loss and Damage
PART 3
18
- Farmers in Iguig
- Fishermen along the coast
PART 4
22
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Executive Summary
This paper contains scientific and anecdotal
evidence, and expert and grassroots
recommendations brought about by the questions:
What are we doing about Slow Onset Impacts (SOI)
or the long-term effects of climate change? Why
should we do more? And what steps should be taken
to meet this challenge?
There are two kinds of climate change events:
rapid onset (extreme episodic disasters) and
slow onset (chronic hazards) events. The former
are what we are more familiar with, what with the
massive devastation left behind by typhoons such as
Ondoy, Pablo, and Yolanda. The latter (prolonged
drought, increasing precipitation, sea level rise, and
changes in ocean temperature, among others) are
not so evident. They can, however, be just as deadly.
Often more so.
Unfortunately for the Philippines and in
most countries, a fixation on the short-term
climatic impacts has been observed throughout
the development of climate change initiatives.
According to Alexander Mller, FAO Assistant
Director General for Natural Resources, "Currently
the world is focused on dealing with shorter-term
climate impacts caused mainly by extreme weather
events."
This fixation is understandableafter all, it is
human nature to focus on the immediate, which is
seemingly more urgent. It is easier and much more
expected to respond to something seen and which
inspires more emotion, than to work on something
which takes years to take effect.
However, as this paper will show, a failure to
understand the urgency of Slow Onset Impacts will
severely affect the countrys food security, biodiversity, ecosystems, and culture (due to cultural
loss and migration), posing potentially irreparable
loss and damage to infrastructure, human lives (due
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mma r y
PART 1
What is SOI
years or decades. (1)
When asked about the timeframe pertaining
to Slow Onset Impacts, meteorologist and
climatologist Lourdes V. Tibig, a member of the
National Panel of Technical Experts established by
the Climate Change Commission and one of the
lead authors of the Working Group II contribution
to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), says,
Varying, depending on the nature of the slow onset
impactswhether caused by changes in the rainfall,
accelerated sea level rise or even those resulting from
extreme hazards.
Based on history, SOI does not follow a
scheduleand the severity of its effects depend
on human action. Acceleration (of effects) could
be exponential, depending on whats being done
but its business as usual... Slow Onset is just slow
because its not sudden. But when you talk about the
rate of the impactsyou never know.
It may be difficult to disassociate climate change
effects from normal climate variability, states
The philippines sea level rise three times the global average
The Philippines has seen three times the global average in sea
level rise, exacerbating its vulnerability to natural disasters,
climate experts said at a conference in Paris this week. Michael
Williams of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
said the Philippines posted the highest average increase in sea
levels, at 60 cms, against the global average of 19 cms since
the year 1901.
Warning| PH seeing highest sea level rise in the world thrice the global average, in fact, http://www.interaksyon.
com/article/84113/warning--ph-seeing-highest-sea-level-risein-the-world---thrice-the-global-average-in-fact, April 4, 2015
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Modified maps based on what PAGASA made in 2011 show how different regions in the Philippines will be affected by slow
onset changes in rising temperatures (by degrees Celsius). They show all areas of the Philippines will get warmer during the
summer months, with largest temperature increase during MAM (March-April-May).
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Maps also show projected changes in rainfall (by percentage), expected to decrease during MAM (March-April-May season), increase
during JJA (June-July-August) until SON (September-October-November) in Luzon and Visayas, and during DJF (December-JanuaryFebruary). However, there is likely to be a general decreasing trend in rainfall in Mindanao, especially by year 2050.
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References:
1. Loss & Damage: The theme of slow onset impact, August 2012, Climate Development Knowledge Network
2. Slow onset events Technical Paper, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, November 26, 2012
3. Germanwatch Global Climate Risk Index 2014
4. Maplecroft.com, a global risk advisory firm
5. www.gov.ph/government-information-during-natural-disasters/
6. Manila Observatory, 2009
7. Satellites trace sea level change, September 24, 2012, Jonathan Amos, BBC News-Science and Environment
PART 2
Whats at Stake
SOI, brought about by global
warming, carries several risks, all of
them interconnected.
This was made evident at a 2014
Quezon City press conference
called Climate Change: Impacts
and Imperatives to present the
findings of Working Group 2 for
the Intergovernmental Panel for
Climate Change (IPCC) AR5
Report: Overview and Implications
in the Philippines. One of the
Working Group 2 lead authors,
Lourdes V. Tibig, who worked
for 32 years at the Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical,
and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) and is
currently a member of the National
Panel of Technical Experts
established by the Climate Change
Commission, herself gave the
presentation:
Risk of death, injury, ill-health,
or disrupted livelihoods in lowlying coastal zones and small island
developing states and other small
islands, due to storm surges, coastal
flooding, and sea-level rise;
Risk of severe ill-health and
disrupted livelihoods for large
urban populations due to inland
flooding in some regions;
Systemic risks due to extreme
weather events leading to
breakdown of infrastructure;
networks and critical services
Definition of terms
(from The Global Warming Glossary from climatehotmap.org)
Desertification- Land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas
resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities.
The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification defines land degradation
as a reduction or loss in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas, of the biological
or economic productivity and complexity of rain-fed cropland, irrigated cropland, or
range, pasture, forest, and woodlands resulting fromland usesor from a process
or combination of processes, including processes arising from human activities
and habitation patterns, such as (i) soil erosion caused by wind and/or water; (ii)
deterioration of the physical, chemical, and biological or economic properties of soil;
and (iii) long-term loss of natural vegetation.
Global surface temperature- The global surface temperature is an estimate
of the global mean surface air temperature. However, for changes over time, only
anomalies, as departures from a climatology, are used, most commonly based on
the area-weighted global average of thesea surface temperatureanomaly andland
surface air temperatureanomaly.
Global warming- Global warming refers to the increase, observed or projected,
inglobal surface temperature, as one of the consequences ofradiative forcingcaused
by human-induced emissions.
Sea level rise (or SLR) - An increase in the mean level of the ocean.Eustatic sealevel riseis a change in global average sea level brought about by an increase in
the volume of the world ocean.Relative sea level riseoccurs where there is a local
increase in the level of the ocean relative to the land, which might be due to ocean
rise and/or land level subsidence. In areas subject to rapid land-level uplift, relative
sea level can fall.
Salt-water intrusion / encroachment- Displacement of fresh surface water or
groundwater by the advance of salt water due to its greater density. This usually
occurs in coastal and estuarine areas due to reducing land-based influence (e.g.,
either from reducedrunoff and associatedgroundwater recharge, or from excessive
water withdrawals fromaquifers) or increasing marine influence (e.g., relative sea
level rise).
Salinization- The accumulation of salts in soils.
Storm surge- The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in the height of
the sea due to extreme meteorological conditions (low atmospheric pressure and/
or strong winds). The storm surge is defined as being the excess above the level
expected from the tidal variation alone at that time and place.
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Food security
When supply falls below demand, somebody
doesnt have enough food. When some people dont
have food, you get starvation. Yes, Im worried.
- Michael Oppenheimer, a Princeton University
climate scientist, co-author, Climate Change 2014:
Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability Report (1)
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The loss of shell-forming species, coral reefs, and reef-dependent fisheries affects food security, trade, and tourism. Tropical reefs support and estimate
25 percent of marine fish species and provide food and livelihood for some 500 million people worldwide (UNEP, 2010). The annual economic value of
coral reefs to world tourism is estimated at around 9.6 billion (Conservation International, 2008).
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the Lumah Ma Dilaut School for
Living Traditions, United Nations
lobbyist, and a community organizer
and cultural worker advocating for
culturally appropriate and liberating
values-based education. (12)
In instances of environmental
migration, these indigenous
communities, after being forcibly
displaced from their home-seas,
usually seek sanctuaries by shoring
up-land and building makeshift
shelters in garbage dumps and
risky areas, living in most inhuman
conditions.
Cases of impact of climate
change among indigenous peoples
ability to adapt were collated. In a
2010 report by Lumah Ma Dilaut
in a UNESCO-LINKS-supported
research. The report accounted for
demographic changes as the result
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Self-check: How
aware are we?
From an interview with
Rosa Perez, PhD, member
and consultant of the
Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC),
we derive questions to help
readers gauge the importance
and awareness of Slow Onset
Impacts in their respective
contexts.
1. Does your community have
the resources to meet the
challenges of
____soil degradation
____ sea level rise
____ salinization
____ lowered agricultural/
fisheries production
2. If yes, what are they?
3. What resources would
your communities lack? What
would you do to make up for
that lack?
4. Are you aware of the
other risksaside from loss
of food security and loss
and damagethat the above
scenarios can bring?
5. Are you aware of the
interconnectivity of slow onset
climate change impacts and
food security, safety, and
health?
Impact chain. Dr. Rosa Perez of the IPCC says sea level rise can lead to loss and damages in infrastructure and human life,
stemming from diminished food security and safety, which can, in turn, impact personal safety, which will lead to health
issues and a rise in illness and disease, and ultimately, the demise of human life and even cultures.
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References:
1. Panels warning on climate risk: Worst is yet to come, March 31, 2014, The New York Times
2. Philippine Human Development Report 2012/2013, Human Development Network
3. Potentially catastrophic climate impacts on food production over long term, FAO, March 31, 2011
4. Slow Onset Events Technical Paper, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, November 26, 2012
5. Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Change: The Philippine Experience by Adelina D. Alvarez, Center for Quality and Competitiveness-Agriculture Productivity Enhancement Division (CQC-AgriPED), Development Academy of the Philippines, Workshop on Agricultural Adaptations to
Climate Change, Bangkok, Thailand, November 22, 2012
6.Rapid climate change now threatens Asias rice bowl, Dan Klotz and Jeff Haskins, The Nation, April 21, 2012, http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Rapid-climate-change-now-threatens-Asias-rice-bowl-30180379.html
7.DPWH Flood Risk Management and Resiliency Program, by Assistant Secretary Ma. Catalina E. Cabral, PhD, June 3, 2014
8. Modeling the Effect of Rising Sea Level on River Deltas and Long Profiles of Rivers, Gary Parker, Yoshihisa Akamatsu, Tetsuji Muto,
William Dietrich, Hiroshima University, Japan, July 2004, 2000
9. http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Re-St/Sea-Level.html
10. Climate Change: Challenge and Opportunities in the Philippines by Esteban C. Godilano, Ph.D. and Eliseo R. Ponce, PhD., SeminarWorkshop on Mainstreaming Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Initiative in Agriculture. October 22 to 24, 2013, Manila
11. Loss & Damage: The Theme of Slow Onset Impact, August 2012, Linda Siegele.
12. Story notes on Mucha Shim Quilings Lahat Hangkut, essay in Agam: Filipino Narratives on Uncertainty and Climate Change, 2014, iCSC
13. Perspectives on Non-Economic Loss and Damage: Understanding values at risk from climate change, September 2013
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PART 3
Department of
Agricultures AMIA
On January 25, 2013, DA Secretary
Proceso Alcala issued a memorandum
in support of the Climate Change Act
of 2009 (R.A. 9729) outlining DAs
four strategic objectives to make
DAs plans and programs climate
change compliant or climate proof.
The memo also introduced the
DAsseven systems-wide programs
on climate changethat includes
the APEC-initiated Adaptation and
Mitigation Initiatives in Agriculture
(AMIA). (1)
The AMIAs objective was to increase
understanding on strategies,
impact, problems,and issues on
mainstreaming climate change
across functions and agencies in
the DA. Key activities would include
development of systems; enhancing
DA management capacities; and LGU
management training on CC, among
others. (2)
Climate appropriations have increased 2.5 times in real terms and on average 26 percent annually, outpacing the growth of the
national budget (around 6 percent). This increase shows government willingness to increase climate action, but the level of funding based on projected needs is still low. The total climate appropriations correspond to about 0.3 percent of GDP, falling below
the Stern review recommendations that countries should expend at least 2 percent of GDP to implement climate action. Climate
Change Action and Mitigation Roadmap, inter-agency presentation, 2013
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RISK TO PROJECTED
TEMPeRATURE
INCREASE
RISK TO PROJECTED
RAINFALL CHANGE
RISK TO EL NIO
Maps from the Manila Observatory and Department of Environment and Natural Resources show parts of the country that are at risk to projected temperature increase,
rainfall increase, and effects of El Nio.
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References:
1. http://www.da.gov.ph/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1233:memorandum-urgent-implementation-of-the-da-climatechange-policy-thrusts-and-programs&catid=107:climate-change
2. DA Systems-Wide Programs (SWPS): Objectives Presentation, AMIA-DA Philippines
3. Economic Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation Options in Selected Coastal Areas of Cagayan, Philippines, Evelyn C. Ame, Rowena
Guzman, Jezreel Pataguan, Kuroshio Science, 2014
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inundation.
Instead of sticking to low yielding crops, he says,
research can allow you to have a variety that would
have a higher yield than your current variety thats
not adaptable to that environment.
Irrigation and precipitationthrough a process
like evapotranspirationcan also be developed
for areas that lack water, like in soil-atmosphere
coupling experiments. So mostly you get your
moisture from the atmosphere and the soil,
explains Serrano. Another, cheaper variety of crop
would be one which can extract its own nitrogen
requirements from the atmosphere.
Robust argument, good evidence and sound
technical analysisthese are ingredients that can
convince. Research is the backbone of political buyin, which is crucial in the formulation of policies
geared towards the SOI agenda.
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References:
1. Loss & Damage: The Theme of Slow Onset Impact, August 2012, Linda Siegele
2. National Report of the Philippines, May 2006, Oceanography Division, Coast and Geodetic Survey Department, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority, Nurelius G. Baloran
3. AR 4: Assessment Report 4, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
4, 5. Loss & Damage: The Theme of Slow Onset Impact, August 2012, Linda Siegele
*Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Department of Energy (DOE), Department of
Transportation and Communication (DOTC), Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG)
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Introducing
the new logo:
basic English versions
There are four versions of the basic logo:
1 red with white type (main version)
2 black with white type
(for one-colour/low-cost jobs, or
occasionally for four-colour jobs where
appropriate. For example, for more
reflective or youth applications see black
majority churches leaflet, 05 03)
3 white with red type
04 01
Empower Provinces!
The specific mix of climate change
impactsepisodic and slow onsetwill
vary from place to place, and from year
to year; impacts will be nonlinear over
time. High inter-annual variability and
increasing unpredictability will be a
crosscutting pattern characterizing climate
change in the Philippines.
This is a compelling argument
against centralized, cookie-cutter
type of approaches from the national
governmentparticularly in agriculture,
the most climate-sensitive sector. Rather,
the first best and, maybe, only response
to nonlinearity and unpredictability is
to strengthen adaptive capacities of
communitiesstrengthening human
capabilities and building on local coping
mechanisms. Certain types of information,
technology, and research may be best
produced or financed at the national level,
but the delivery and application of these
public goods require local knowledge,
flexibility, and customization. Certainly,
planning capacity will be critical, if not
essential, to the adaptive potential of
localities. In order to avoid fragmented
local responses to climate change and
clumsy, ineffective, one-size-fits-all
national programs, interventions at the
provincial level will be central to building
climate change resilience at the local level.
Natural Hazard and Climate Change by Red Constantino and Toby Monsod, from
2012/2013 Human Development Report by the Philippine Human Development Network.
Download the full report at http://ejeepney.org/pdf/2012-2013-PHDR.pdf