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Metro Vancouvers future growth is dependent on the availability of high-quality labour, which is now threatened
by the rapid increase in the cost of living, driven primarily by unaffordable housing.
Millennials are the next generation of workers and are highly educated and very mobile. Up to 93 per cent of
Millennials plan to own a home sometime in the future. Metro Vancouvers housing crisis will motivate this group to
migrate away in search of better opportunities, leading to a labour crisis.
One primary cause is that salaries are not keeping pace with increased housing costs. Between 2001 and 2014, the
cost of Metro Vancouver housing increased by 63 per cent, while salaries only rose by 36.2 per cent.
The high cost of housing is already pricing many in-demand workers out of Metro Vancouver. On average, the salary
required to maintain the average mortgage in the region is $78,088. Many occupations that the province relies upon
for its economic engine do not meet this threshold.
In the future, Vancouver housing is projected to rise by 4.87 per cent a year, but slow salary growth will continue:
wage rate growth for in-demand occupations will rise only between 0.6 per cent and 3.2 per cent.
By 2020, 82 of 88 in-demand jobs will be unable to afford a single-family home in Metro Vancouver.
By 2025, 85 of 88 in-demand jobs will be unable to afford to live in Metro Vancouver. Only those individuals
working as senior business managers, senior construction managers and engineering managers will be able to
maintain affordable housing.
In ten years, most individuals may forgo a career opportunity in the region and relocate to a different labour
market. If there is an abundance of outward migration, a labour crisis will occur.
Make Good Money (TM) is a trademark of Vancouver City Savings Credit Union.
aged 15 to 33, and almost all those surveyed said they plan
to buy a home at some point in their lives.v
Millennials are very mobile and the most highly educated
generation ever,vi and future labour markets depend on
wooing these workers. Areas with a high cost of living due
to increasingly unaffordable housing will be at a significant
disadvantage in the near future. It is entirely likely that
this desire will motivate Millennials to migrate away from
Metro Vancouver in search of better opportunities. In fact,
the knife edge of that trend has already started: in 2013,
Vancouver suffered a net loss of 1,571 residents in the 20
to 30 age group, up from 770 the year before.vii This net
outflow is not surprising when growth in incomes is so
dramatically lagging behind growth in key expenses.
110.0
90.0
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Furthermore, salary growth seems to be slowing. Fiveyear peak growth during the period was between 2005
and 2009, with salaries rising on average 3% per year. Yet
the last five years (2010 to 2014) have only seen growth of
1.3% per year. This trend reveals stagnating salary growth
province-wide, resulting in less disposable income for
residents as expenses rise.
Couple-family households with children: 24.4%; Couple-family households without children: 30.2%; Multiple-family households: 2.9%. Statistics Canada,
Census metropolitan area of Vancouver, British Columbia. Accessed May 15, 2015.
www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/fogs-spg/Facts-cma-eng.cfm?LANG=Eng&GK=CMA&GC=933
Management occupations
Senior managers - financial, communications and other business services
$143,624.90
$131,237.15
Engineering managers
$124,047.11
Managers in transportation
$82,355.81
Construction managers
$81,453.03
$69,307.84
$51,384.82
$49,146.35
$41,793.54
$71,155.54
$70,261.86
$64,403.74
$60,241.77
$58,926.99
Executive assistants
$58,807.16
Property administrators
$53,098.52
Administrative officers
$50,005.63
$49,177.61
$45,073.18
Administrative assistants
$44,119.94
$44,045.97
$43,887.03
Receptionists
$35,695.17
$95,522.54
Civil engineers
$86,711.29
Mechanical engineers
$86,073.48
Inspectors in public and environmental health and occupational health and safety
$76,148.74
$74,319.05
Construction inspectors
$72,821.16
$68,663.57
$57,453.54
Health occupations
Specialist physicians
$112,056.12
$82,863.43
Medical sonographers
$76,668.65
$74,710.22
$72,450.23
Physiotherapists
$70,083.52
$69,467.98
$68,511.97
Occupational therapists
$63,166.47
$109,333.80
$95,972.54
$92,485.99
Firefighters
$85,754.04
$76,931.33
Social workers
$65,995.49
$65,707.57
$64,887.59
$58,916.76
$44,157.19
$31,662.68
$19,713.63
$ 54,063.06
$ 45,307.09
$ 32,135.33
$50,116.85
Chefs
$40,331.16
$38,358.03
Retail salespersons
$34,915.73
$34,723.05
Bakers
$33,150.66
Cooks
$29,163.50
$20,008.35
$85,786.04
$77,215.62
$76,786.87
$76,580.35
$75,784.15
Crane operators
$70,790.26
Gas fitters
$67,947.53
$65,552.11
$65,435.53
$65,366.36
$64,657.71
$63,939.02
$59,703.09
Plumbers
$57,573.65
$57,546.17
$56,251.54
Concrete finishers
$49,070.25
Carpenters
$47,191.03
$45,182.69
Material handlers
$45,155.23
$43,646.49
$42,346.76
$38,263.59
$29,501.49
$ 85,423.27
Source: Statistics Canada - 2011 National Household Survey, values updated to 2014 figures by Vancity.
difficult to afford property, including industrial electricians, civil engineers, construction managers, police officers, firefighters and
general practitioners. The occupations which will make more than the required $101,238 per year are listed below.
Occupation
2020 est.
$ 164,095.18
$ 149,941.86
Engineering managers
$ 141,727.05
Specialist physicians
$ 117,168.27
Lawyers
$ 113,736.39
$ 105,538.70
By 2025, only three occupations remain on the list making enough from their employment to afford housing in Metro
Vancouver: $125,692. At this point, lawyers, electrical engineers and specialist physicians fall off the list.
Occupation
2025 est.
$ 183,365.48
$ 167,550.08
Engineering managers
$ 158,370.57
Recommendations
As this report has found, one of the primary causes of a
labour crisis in Metro Vancouver will be the high cost of
living driven by unaffordable housing. To avoid this, policy
and behaviour responses should focus on ways of improving
access to future workers, both by reducing the cost of
housing as well as increasing salaries. These responses will not
address the equally pressing issue of ensuring that education
and skills match future supply and demand.
For government:
Inclusionary zoning: Build affordability targets into
municipal zoning bylaws right from the outset through
inclusionary zoning. This gives developers the right to
develop market housing only if they include a certain
amount of non-market housing in the development.
Inclusionary zoning differs from bonus density, which
rewards developers with additional market-rate
development density to develop market condos in
exchange for below-market rate contributions they make
to delivering affordable housing units (and/or other
community amenities like libraries, childcare, public art, etc.).
Integrating below-market housing options into development
rights helps to manage the land value.
For business:
For individuals:
Evaluate renting versus buying: Millennials should seriously
consider the financial costs and benefits of ownership. If
ownership does not currently make financial sense, institute
an automated savings and investment plan that can build
equity over the long term.
Methodology
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References
i. Work B.C. British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook, pg 10. Accessed May 11, 2015.
www.workbc.ca/WorkBC/media/WorkBC/Documents/Docs/BC-LM-Outlook-2012-2022.pdf
ii. A number of labour market studies in which the high cost of housing has been found to be a detriment to
recruitment and retention can be found in: Vancouver Coast & Mountain Tourism Region (excluding Sea-to-Sky
Corridor) Tourism Labour Market Study, Thompson Okanagan Tourism Labour Market Study and Vancouver
Island Tourism Labour Market Study conducted by Roslyn Kunin & Associates, Inc. www.go2hr.ca/research
iii. B.C. company cites labour shortages for move to Ontario. CBC News. February 3, 2008.
iv. National Association of Realtors. 2015 NAR Generational Survey, Accessed May 11, 2015.
www.realtor.org/news-releases/2015/03/nar-generational-survey-millennials-lead-all-buyers-most-likely-touse-real-estate-agent
v. Yconic/Uthink. Millennial Finances & Plans for the Future, Accessed May 11, 2015.
we.are.yconic.com/Youth%20Insights/Infographic-Millennial-Finances-and-Plans-for-the-Future.aspx#.VVDgZ_lVhBc
vi. Nielsen. Millennials prefer cities to suburbs, subways to driveways, Accessed May 11, 2015.
www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2014/millennials-prefer-cities-to-suburbs-subways-to-driveways.html
Pew Research. How Millennials today compare with their grandparents 50 years ago, Accessed May 11, 2015.
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/03/19/how-millennials-compare-with-their-grandparents/
vii. Matt Kieltyka, Metro Votes: Young Vancouverites fleeing to more affordable pastures. Metro, January 14, 2015.
viii. Data derived from Statistics Canadas Labour Force Survey, CANSIM table 282-0070
ix. Work B.C. British Columbia 2022 Labour Market Outlook.
x. Source: Landcor, Central 1 Credit Union
xi. Vancity, Downsizing the Canadian Dream: Homeownership Realities for Millennials and Beyond, March 2015.
xii. Richard Littlemore, Vancouvers high-tech makeover. Globe and Mail, March 26, 2015.
xiii. Conference Board of Canada. Building from the Ground Up: Enhancing Affordable Housing in Canada, March 2010, 1.
xiv. Mike Berry. Housing affordability and the economy: A review of labour market impacts and policy issues, iv.
xv. Statistics Canada - 2011 National Household Survey. Catalogue Number 99-012-X2011061.
xvi. Statistics Canada. Table 282-0133 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), employment by census metropolitan
area based on 2011 census boundaries and National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S), annual
(persons), and Statistics Canada. Table 282-0070 - Labour force survey estimates (LFS), wages of employees by
type of work, National Occupational Classification for Statistics (NOC-S), sex and age group, annual (current
dollars unless otherwise noted).
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