Group Assignment 1 Introduction to Business Statistics (IBS)

Group 3:1. Meenakshi Mishra

2. Anuvab Palit
3. Soumyadeep Roy
4. Abhijit Chanda
5. Sourav Sharma

Solution to Question 1 (i.e. Cereal Promotion Problem considering

3 game pieces):Let X1 denote the number of boxes that must be must to obtain the 1 st game
piece,
X2 denote the number of boxes that must be bought to obtain the 2 nd game
piece, &
X3 denote the number of boxes that must be bought to obtain the 3 rd game
piece.
For the 1st game piece:Expected Value of X1 = E(X1) = 1 [Since each cereal box contains any one of a
set of game pieces].
For the 2nd game piece:The following chart details the values that X2 can take and the corresponding
probabilities:
X2
(no. of
cereal
boxes)
P(X2)

................... to
infinity

2/3

(1/3)*(2/3)

(1/3) * (1/3) * (2/3)

.......................

Since there
are 3 game
pieces and
one of them
has already
been found,
the above
fraction
denotes the
probability
of finding a
new game
piece out of
the
remaining
two game
pieces.
Hence
probability
is 2 out of
3.

Probabili
ty that
the first
game
piece is
found in
the 1st
cereal
box i.e.
1 out of
3.

Probabilit
y that a
new
game
piece is
found in
the 2nd
cereal
box i.e. 2
out of 3.

Proba
bility
that
the
first
game
piece
is
found
in the
1st
cereal
box
i.e. 1
out of
3

Proba
bility
that
the
first
game
piece
is
found
in the
2nd
cereal
box
i.e. 1
out of
3

Probab
ility
that a
new
game
piece
is
found
in the
3rd
cereal
box
i.e. 2
out of
3.

Expected Value of X2 =
1

E(X2) = 1 x 2/3 + 2 x (1/3)(2/3) + 3 x (1/3) 2(2/3) + 4 x (1/3)3(2/3) .......... to

infinity
= (2/3) x [ 1 + 2x(1/3) + 3x(1/3)2 + + 4x(1/3)3 + .............. to infinity ]
This expression is of the form :: S = 1 + 2a + 3a2 + 4a3 + ................ to infinity
-------------- (i) [a = 1/3]
aS = a + 2a2 + 3a3 + 4a4 + ......................... to infinity
Subtracting equation (ii) from equation (i), we get,
(1-a)S = 1 + a + a2 + a3 + .................... to infinity

---------------- (ii)

[This is sum of an infinite G.P. series, where common ratio is a (i.e. 1/3 which is
less than 1) and first term is 1].
Thus,
(1-a)S = 1/(1-a)
summation of infinite GP series]
i.e. S = 1/(1-a)2

[Using the formula for

Hence, E(X2) = (2/3) x [1/{1- (1/3)2}] = 3/2 = 1.5

For the 3rd game piece:The following chart details the values that X3 can take and the corresponding
probabilities:
X3
(no. of
cereal
boxes)
P(X3)

................... to
infinity

1/3

(2/3)*(1/3)

(2/3) * (2/3) * (1/3)

.......................

Since there
are 3 game
pieces and
two of them
have
already
been found,
the above
fraction
denotes the
probability
of finding
the 3rd
game
piece.
Hence
probability
is 1 out of
3.

Probabili
ty that
one of
the first
two
game
pieces is
found in
the 1st
cereal
box i.e.
2 out of
3.

Probabilit
y that
the 3rd
game
piece is
found in
the 2nd
cereal
box i.e. 1
out of 3.

Proba
bility
that
one of
the
first
two
game
pieces
is
found
in the
1st
cereal
box
i.e. 2
out of
3.

Proba
bility
that
one of
the
first
two
game
pieces
is
found
in the
2nd
cereal
box
i.e. 2
out of
3.

Probab
ility
that
the 3rd
game
piece
is
found
in the
3rd
cereal
box
i.e. 1
out of
3.

Expected Value of X3 =
E(X2) = 1 x 1/3 + 2 x (2/3)(1/3) + 3 x (2/3) 2(1/3) + 4 x (2/3)3(1/3) .......... to
infinity
= (1/3) x [ 1 + 2x(2/3) + 3x(2/3)2 + + 4x(2/3)3 + .............. to infinity ]
2

Utilizing the formula derived earlier for X2, we can write

E(X3) = (1/3) x [1/{1-(2/3)}2] = 3
Therefore,
Expected Value of X1 + X2 + X3
= E (X1 + X2 + X3)
= E(X1) + E(X2) + E(X3)
= 1 + 1.5 + 3
=5.5
Thus expected number of cereal boxes that must be bought by a customer to
collect the set of all the three game pieces is 5.5.

Solution to Question No. 5 of the Problem Set:Probability of playing a match on artificial turf = P(A) = 0.4
Thus probability of playing a match on grass turf = P(G) = 1 P(A) = 1 0.4 =
0.6
[Since matches will be played either or artificial turf or grass turf]
Let P(I) denote the probability that a player gets injured.
It is given that,
Probability that a player gets injured if he plays on artificial turf = P(I/A) = 0.42
Moreover, the chance of a player getting injured is 50% higher if he plays on
artificial turf rather than on grass turf.
Hence, if P(I/G) denotes the probability of a player getting injured on grass, turf,
P(I/A) = 1.5 x P(I/G)
Hence, P(I/G) = [P(I/A)] / 1.5 = 0.42/1.5 = 0.28
(i)

Probability that a randomly selected football player incurs an

injury
= P(I)
=(Probability that he plays on artificial turf and gets injured) +
(Probability that he plays on grass turf and gets injured)
= P(I/A) x P(A) + P(I/G) x P(G)
-------------------- [Theory of total
probability]
= 0.42 x 0.4 + 0.28 x 0.6
= 0.168 + 0.168
= 0.336

(ii)

Probability that a randomly selected football player with an

injury has incurred the injury playing on grass
= P(G/I)
= P(G I) / P(I)
= P (I G) / P(I)
= [P(I/G) x P(G)] / P(I)
= (0.28 x 0.6) / 0.336
= 0.168 / 0.336
= 0.5
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