Air Pollution from Ground

Transportation
Roger Gorham
Global Initiative on
Transport Emissions

Paper Purpose
z Help the Secretariat work through issues
in preparation for CSD-9
z Provide background and input for strategy
development for GITE
z Identify significant needs for the
international community

Themes in GITE
Background Paper

Approaches to motorization
Ability to predict and track emissions
Integrating environment and emissions into
investment & planning decisions
Integrating local and global concerns in policy
assessment and formulation
Coordination & stabilization of regulatory
environments in DCs
Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Themes in GITE
Background Paper
z
z
z
z
z
z

Approaches to motorization
Ability to predict and track emissions
Integration of environment/emissions
considerations into investment/planning
decisions
Integrating local and global concerns into
assessment and policy
Coordination/stabilization of regulatory
environments in DCs
Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Common Assumptions
About Motorization
z Mobility generates economic development
z Car Use = Car Ownership
z Pricing: not a viable or realistic policy
option to address motorization in DCs
z Adoption of motor vehicle technology in
DCs: purely a question of affordability

Mobility
z Mobility is a derived demand
z Accessibility to goods, services, activity
participation, and social interaction
z 4 kinds of accessibility
y Mobility
y Proximity

y Virtuality
y Nodality

z Accessibility key to economic development

Common Assumptions
About Motorization
z Mobility generates economic development
z Car Use = Car Ownership
z Pricing: not a viable or realistic policy
option to address motorization in DCs
z Adoption of motor vehicle technology in
DCs: purely a question of affordability

Car Use and Car

Ownership
Trends in Car Ownership in Developed
Countries
by
Income
Ca rs / 1 0 0 0 p e o ple
600
U.S.

500

J a pan
F ra n c e

400

W. Ge rmany
Italy
G.B ritain/UK

300

Sweden
Denmark

200

A ustralia
Netherlands
100

Canada

0
0

5000

10000

15000

20000

P e r Ca p ita G D P , 1 9 9 0 U S D Co n v e rte d a t Purc h a s ing P o w e r P a rity

25000

Car Use and Car

Ownership
Trends in Car Use in Developed
Countries
by
Income
Ve hic le Km (c a rs a n d h o u s e h o ld light truc k s )/ Ca p ita
14000
12000
10000
U.S.
8000

Japan
W. Ge rmany

6000

G.B ritain/UK
Sweden

4000

Denmark
A ustralia

2000

Netherlands
Canada

0
8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

P e r Ca p ita G D P , 1 9 9 0 U S D Co n v e rte d a t Purc h a s ing P o w e r P a rity

24000

Common Assumptions
About Motorization
z Mobility generates economic development
z Car Use = Car Ownership
z Pricing: not a viable or realistic policy
option to address motorization in DCs
z Adoption of motor vehicle technology in
DCs: purely a question of affordability

Pricing: Variable v. Fixed

z Fixed costs are one-time or time-dependent
(recurring) costs
y e.g. cost of vehicle, taxes, insurance, vehicle storage

z Variable costs are use-related costs

y e.g. fuel, wear-and-tear, parking charges

z Lifetime costs are sum of the above

z Variabilizing costs means shifting proportion of
lifetime costs from fixed to variable
z Fixed costs
Average price logic
Variable costs Marginal price logic

Common Assumptions
About Motorization
z Mobility generates economic development
z Car Use = Car Ownership
z Pricing: not a viable or realistic policy
option to address motorization in DCs
z Adoption of motor vehicle technology in
DCs: purely a question of affordability

Motor Vehicle Technology

z Technology strategies for industrialized
countries may not be appropriate for DCs
z Technologies which are unmarketable in
industrialized countries may be well suited
to DCs
z Relatively low purchasing power of DC
markets hinders private-sector innovation
for these markets

Themes in GITE
Background Paper
z
z
z
z
z
z

Approaches to motorization
Ability to predict and track emissions
Integration of environment/emissions
considerations into investment/planning
decisions
Integrating local and global concerns into
assessment and policy
Coordination/stabilization of regulatory
environments in DCs
Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Tracking / Predicting
Emissions
z Specific data needs
y Vehicle fleet and usage by vehicle type and
purpose
y Emissions factors for different pollutants, by
vehicle type

z Predict travel, by mode and purpose

z Technical capacity & resources in DCs are
limited

Themes in GITE
Background Paper
z
z
z
z
z
z

Approaches to motorization
Ability to predict and track emissions
Integration of environment/emissions
considerations into investment/planning
decisions
Integrating local and global concerns into
assessment and policy
Coordination/stabilization of regulatory
environments in DCs
Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Integrating Environment
into Planning Process
z Historically, environmental concerns
y not taken into account at all; or
y used to define mitigation options

z Growing recognition that environment

needs to be an integral part of the
planning process
z Recognition of environmental and
economic value of choice as element of
transport system

Measures to Integrate
Environment
z Subordinate infrastructure investment to
long-term growth and development needs
z Analyze long-run costs and benefits of
different scenarios for infrastructure
deployment to meet needs
z Take into account the effects of induced
travel, cumulative effects of facility
development, and land-use changes
resulting from infrastructure development

Themes in GITE
Background Paper
z
z
z
z
z
z

Approaches to motorization
Ability to predict and track emissions
Integration of environment/emissions
considerations into investment/planning
decisions
Integrating local and global concerns into
assessment and policy
Coordination/stabilization of regulatory
environments in DCs
Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Integrating Global and

Local
z Behavioral strategies get at both without
tradeoff
z Question under Kyoto mechanisms: how
is CO2 allocated? What is the baseline?
z Ability of transport sector to compete with
other sectors for GHG funds
z Critical to viability of CDM

Themes in GITE
Background Paper
z
z
z
z
z
z

Approaches to motorization
Ability to predict and track emissions
Integration of environment/emissions
considerations into investment/planning
decisions
Integrating local and global concerns into
assessment and policy
Coordination/stabilization of regulatory
environments in DCs
Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Stabilizing Regulatory
Environments
z Participation of the private sector is critical to
long-term, sustainable changes in transport
sector
z Private sector role in vehicle manufacturing,
importing, operations, fuel refining, land
development
z Private sector craves
y Predictability
y Scalability

Themes in GITE
Background Paper
z
z
z
z
z
z

Approaches to motorization
Ability to predict and track emissions
Integration of environment/emissions
considerations into investment/planning
decisions
Integrating local and global concerns into
assessment and policy
Coordination/stabilization of regulatory
environments in DCs
Knowledge sharing and analytic support

Sharing Knowledge
z Information generated, lessons learned,
best practices from on-the-ground
experience
z Sources of finance
y Capacity-building for integrated assessment

z Policy approaches
y Strategic -- well disseminated
y Tactical -- not well disseminated

Policy approaches
z Strategic
y Technical
y Systemic
y Behavioral

z Tactical
y Whom can be influenced, and how
y Opportunistic interventions

Tactical Approaches:
Target Groups
Fuel consumers
Vehicle users
Vehicle operators
Travelers and
shippers
z Vehicle purchasers
z Vehicle
manufacturers and
importers
z
z
z
z

z Vehicle owners and

fleet managers
z Fuel refiners,
importers, and
retailers
z Developers and
planners
z Households and firms
z Public attitudes and
opinions

Critical Needs for

International Community

Strategies for motorization

Development of innovative strategies to address

motorization
Better identification and targeting of technological
solutions for developing country contexts

Institutional development for data

Harmonization of transport data tracking and

reporting
Must encompass both emissions and activity,
inventories and projections

Critical Needs for

International Community
Capacity-building for integration of local and
global concerns in policy assessment and
formulation
Methods to assess ancillary costs and benefits and
allocate CO2 credits
Assisting DCs access climate financing for transport
projects

Critical Needs for

International Community
Preventing fragmentation of markets in
development of emissions and fuel quality
standards and regulations
Knowledge sharing and analytic support
Concerted and consistent support to eliminate the
use of lead as a fuel additive by 2010, consistent with
the Cairo Declaration
Dissemination of best tactics, as well as best
strategies
Emphasis on accessibility and choice in transportation
policy