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South Africa 2015 GDP Outlook

by Eduardo Petazze
26/05/15
In the 1st. Quarter 2015, the South African Gross Domestic Product grew 2.10% YoY (0.33% QoQ)
For 2015, a growth of around 1.9% is expected, from 1.5% growth in 2014 GDP

Links:
Statistics South Africa
Presentation, GDP 1Q2015 - pdf, 16 pages
Press Release, GDP 1Q2015 - pdf, 22 pages

Gross domestic product by industry at constant 2010 prices (R million), Not Seasonally Adjusted
(2010) R
million,
NSA
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YoY
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Latest data
Own estimate
(2010) R
million,
NSA
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
YoY
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
Latest data
Own estimate

Agri
65,605
66,464
66,861
67,880
71,659
73,471
76,487
Agri
-0.30%
1.31%
0.60%
1.53%
5.57%
2.53%
4.10%

Agri
15,239
24,611
17,331
10,700
14,903
26,202
19,400
11,154
15,830
26,331
19,620
11,692
16,774
Agri
3.82%
5.77%
-3.57%
-2.20%
-2.21%
6.47%
11.94%
4.24%
6.22%
0.49%
1.13%
4.82%
5.97%

Mining
230,350
228,645
221,972
230,908
227,260
235,540
240,398
Mining
5.26%
-0.74%
-2.92%
4.03%
-1.58%
3.64%
2.06%

Mining
54,676
57,304
57,913
61,015
53,992
56,852
56,387
60,029
57,397
59,653
58,176
60,314
57,651
Mining
4.20%
-1.38%
3.42%
10.15%
-1.25%
-0.79%
-2.64%
-1.62%
6.31%
4.93%
3.17%
0.47%
0.44%

Mfg
358,699
369,261
376,126
378,933
379,089
380,306
381,465
Mfg
5.91%
2.94%
1.86%
0.75%
0.04%
0.32%
0.30%

Mfg
88,826
94,828
95,915
99,363
90,469
93,384
95,624
99,613
90,848
94,226
96,442
98,790
91,006
Mfg
-0.23%
2.54%
-0.40%
1.06%
1.85%
-1.52%
-0.30%
0.25%
0.42%
0.90%
0.86%
-0.83%
0.17%

Electr.
67,940
68,879
68,801
68,375
67,765
67,473
67,040
Electr.
2.42%
1.38%
-0.11%
-0.62%
-0.89%
-0.43%
-0.64%

Electr.
16,059
17,081
17,779
17,456
16,147
16,858
17,464
17,296
16,106
16,806
17,370
17,190
15,961
Electr.
-2.84%
-0.11%
0.51%
-0.16%
0.55%
-1.31%
-1.78%
-0.91%
-0.25%
-0.31%
-0.53%
-0.61%
-0.90%

Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
Constr.
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
95,453
370,581
229,499
523,526
404,647
148,561
95,809
384,768
236,439
544,997
422,695
152,163
97,804
398,585
242,233
561,079
437,734
155,295
100,468
405,983
247,062
578,127
451,214
158,167
103,358
411,083
252,648
591,019
464,911
160,411
105,737
415,717
258,296
606,680
474,152
162,382
108,254
420,540
264,078
621,351
484,787
164,443
Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
Constr.
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
0.73%
4.43%
1.68%
1.24%
2.72%
0.37%
0.37%
3.83%
3.02%
4.10%
4.46%
2.42%
2.08%
3.59%
2.45%
2.95%
3.56%
2.06%
2.72%
1.86%
1.99%
3.04%
3.08%
1.85%
2.88%
1.26%
2.26%
2.23%
3.04%
1.42%
2.30%
1.13%
2.24%
2.65%
1.99%
1.23%
2.38%
1.16%
2.24%
2.42%
2.24%
1.27%

Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
business Governm Personal
Constr.
& Hotel
Comm.
services
24,799
94,982
59,180
142,945
111,476
39,398
24,873
96,358
60,525
144,066
112,340
40,057
24,957
98,941
63,404
144,800
112,993
39,906
25,839
115,702
63,952
146,316
114,405
38,805
25,580
96,658
60,215
146,869
114,973
40,074
25,558
97,136
61,995
146,927
116,138
40,592
25,635
100,449
64,829
147,963
116,595
40,476
26,585
116,840
65,608
149,260
117,205
39,269
26,075
97,594
61,679
150,860
116,841
40,498
26,167
98,450
63,366
151,082
118,276
41,119
26,282
101,451
66,261
151,839
119,094
40,981
27,212
118,222
66,990
152,899
119,941
39,784
26,746
98,763
63,138
154,277
120,016
41,057
Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
business Governm Personal
Constr.
& Hotel
Comm.
services
2.40%
1.89%
1.92%
1.90%
3.42%
1.43%
3.53%
2.02%
1.76%
2.87%
3.16%
1.57%
3.32%
1.73%
2.21%
3.09%
2.76%
1.90%
1.70%
1.79%
2.08%
4.29%
2.99%
2.52%
3.15%
1.76%
1.75%
2.75%
3.14%
1.72%
2.75%
0.81%
2.43%
1.99%
3.38%
1.34%
2.72%
1.52%
2.25%
2.18%
3.19%
1.43%
2.89%
0.98%
2.59%
2.01%
2.45%
1.20%
1.94%
0.97%
2.43%
2.72%
1.62%
1.06%
2.38%
1.35%
2.21%
2.83%
1.84%
1.30%
2.53%
1.00%
2.21%
2.62%
2.14%
1.25%
2.36%
1.18%
2.11%
2.44%
2.33%
1.31%
2.57%
1.20%
2.37%
2.27%
2.72%
1.38%

GVA
2,494,860
2,570,121
2,626,489
2,687,117
2,729,203
2,779,755
2,828,841
GVA
2.92%
3.02%
2.19%
2.31%
1.57%
1.85%
1.77%

GVA
647,581
672,043
673,940
693,553
659,880
681,643
684,821
702,859
673,728
695,477
697,517
713,033
685,388
GVA
1.96%
2.24%
1.96%
3.04%
1.90%
1.43%
1.61%
1.34%
2.10%
2.03%
1.85%
1.45%
1.73%

Taxes
253,148
266,166
272,758
276,272
279,373
284,567
289,126
Taxes
4.22%
5.14%
2.48%
1.29%
1.12%
1.86%
1.60%

Taxes
66,740
68,493
69,290
71,749
67,983
68,591
70,150
72,649
69,384
70,120
71,481
73,583
70,202
Taxes
0.65%
1.68%
0.73%
2.06%
1.86%
0.14%
1.24%
1.25%
2.06%
2.23%
1.90%
1.29%
1.18%

GDP
2,748,008
2,836,287
2,899,247
2,963,389
3,008,576
3,064,322
3,117,968
GDP
3.04%
3.21%
2.22%
2.21%
1.52%
1.85%
1.75%

GDP
714,321
740,536
743,230
765,302
727,863
750,234
754,971
775,508
743,112
765,596
768,998
786,616
755,591
GDP
1.84%
2.19%
1.84%
2.95%
1.90%
1.31%
1.58%
1.33%
2.10%
2.05%
1.86%
1.43%
1.68%

Seasonally adjusted and annualised quarterly gross domestic product by industry at constant 2010 prices (R million)
(2010) R
million,
SAAR
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
QoQ

Agri
67,436
67,253
67,850
68,983
69,794
70,757
72,380
73,705
70,444
72,455
74,759
76,228
75,753
Agri

Mining
227,241
224,623
231,210
240,559
225,453
223,727
225,875
233,985
239,744
233,969
232,222
236,226
240,583
Mining

Mfg
371,599
382,014
375,521
386,599
380,286
376,429
375,514
384,126
381,820
379,843
377,658
381,903
382,179
Mfg

Electr.
68,098
68,603
68,926
67,873
67,911
67,821
67,637
67,692
67,812
67,515
67,349
67,215
67,255
Electr.

Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
Constr.
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
99,234
403,733
245,297
569,964
446,096
157,019
100,486
405,887
246,253
576,939
449,165
158,069
100,634
406,230
247,860
580,901
452,264
158,551
101,518
408,081
248,838
584,704
457,331
159,029
102,444
409,632
249,719
586,677
459,992
159,624
102,984
409,376
252,096
588,411
464,452
160,220
103,550
412,821
253,493
591,922
466,930
160,736
104,454
412,503
255,283
597,066
468,270
161,064
104,674
413,697
256,027
602,667
467,364
161,438
105,468
414,748
257,590
604,762
472,944
162,074
106,068
416,909
258,977
607,751
476,814
162,729
106,737
417,515
260,589
611,541
479,486
163,288
107,224
418,795
261,933
616,108
480,132
163,619
Finance &
Trade, Rest. Transp. &
Constr.
business Governm Personal
& Hotel
Comm.
services
-0.19%
0.22%
0.50%
1.17%
0.33%
0.30%
1.26%
0.53%
0.39%
1.22%
0.69%
0.67%
0.15%
0.08%
0.65%
0.69%
0.69%
0.30%
0.88%
0.46%
0.39%
0.65%
1.12%
0.30%
0.91%
0.38%
0.35%
0.34%
0.58%
0.37%
0.53%
-0.06%
0.95%
0.30%
0.97%
0.37%
0.55%
0.84%
0.55%
0.60%
0.53%
0.32%
0.87%
-0.08%
0.71%
0.87%
0.29%
0.20%
0.21%
0.29%
0.29%
0.94%
-0.19%
0.23%
0.76%
0.25%
0.61%
0.35%
1.19%
0.39%
0.57%
0.52%
0.54%
0.49%
0.82%
0.40%
0.63%
0.15%
0.62%
0.62%
0.56%
0.34%
0.46%
0.31%
0.52%
0.75%
0.13%
0.20%

2013Q1
-0.74%
3.40%
-2.00%
-1.21%
2013Q2
-0.27%
-1.15%
2.80%
0.74%
2013Q3
0.89%
2.93%
-1.70%
0.47%
2013Q4
1.67%
4.04%
2.95%
-1.53%
2014Q1
1.18%
-6.28%
-1.63%
0.06%
2014Q2
1.38%
-0.77%
-1.01%
-0.13%
2014Q3
2.29%
0.96%
-0.24%
-0.27%
2014Q4
1.83%
3.59%
2.29%
0.08%
2015Q1
-4.42%
2.46%
-0.60%
0.18%
2015Q2
2.85%
-2.41%
-0.52%
-0.44%
2015Q3
3.18%
-0.75%
-0.58%
-0.25%
2015Q4
1.96%
1.72%
1.12%
-0.20%
2016Q1
-0.62%
1.84%
0.07%
0.06%
Latest data
Own estimate
Also see: QUARTERLY LABOUR FORCE SURVEY: Quarter 1 (January to March), 2015 - pdf, 4 pages

GVA
2,655,717
2,679,291
2,689,945
2,723,514
2,711,533
2,716,273
2,730,859
2,758,148
2,765,687
2,771,369
2,781,237
2,800,728
2,813,581
GVA
0.34%
0.89%
0.40%
1.25%
-0.44%
0.17%
0.54%
1.00%
0.27%
0.21%
0.36%
0.70%
0.46%

Taxes
273,981
277,099
275,286
278,722
278,959
277,787
278,644
282,102
284,658
283,881
283,975
285,754
288,059
Taxes
0.33%
1.14%
-0.65%
1.25%
0.09%
-0.42%
0.31%
1.24%
0.91%
-0.27%
0.03%
0.63%
0.81%

GDP
2,929,698
2,956,390
2,965,231
3,002,236
2,990,492
2,994,060
3,009,503
3,040,250
3,050,345
3,055,249
3,065,212
3,086,482
3,101,640
GDP
0.34%
0.91%
0.30%
1.25%
-0.39%
0.12%
0.52%
1.02%
0.33%
0.16%
0.33%
0.69%
0.49%

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