Solution Set for Problem Set 1

1. Describe the difference between a deterministic seismic hazard analysis and a

probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
A deterministic analysis selects a small number of earthquake scenarios (mag, dist) with a
fixed number of standard deviations and then takes the largest ground motion from the
scenarios considered.
A probabilistic analysis is large number of deterministic evaluations for all possible
relevant earthquake scenarios and all possible number of standard deviations of the
ground motion. A key difference from the deterministic approach is that the rate of each
scenario occurring is computed. The scenarios are then ranked by ground motion level.
Using this ranked listed, the rates of the scenarios occurring are then summed
incrementally to give rate of exceeding a ground motion level. We then go down this
ranked list to find the scenario ground motion that is either not too rare or not too costly.
The design ground motion is given by this level.
2. Why dont we design for the worst case ground motion?
The worst-case ground motion is both too rare to justify considering it, and the additional
costs for designing for it are large.
3. Assume that the earthquake magnitudes on a fault follow a truncated exponential
distribution with a minimum magnitude of 5.0 and a maximum magnitude of 7.0 with a bvalue of 1.0. Note: the parameter, , in the exponential model is given by ln(10) times
the b-value.
If an earthquake greater than 5.0 occurs on the fault, what is the probability that the
magnitude of the earthquake is between 6.0 and 6.5? (You can compute this either
analytically or numerically)
Solution:
The equation for a truncated exponential distribution is given by eq. (4-18):

exp( ( x xmin ))
TE
f ( x) =
1 exp( ( xmax xmin ))

for x < xmin

for xmin x xmax
for x > xmax

In this equation, = ln(10) * b

For b =1, then =2.3.
The probability that a value is in a specified range is given by eq. (4.5):
z2

P(z1 x > z2 )= f (x)dx

z1

I have solved this integral numerically:

Using a minimum magnitude of 5.0 and a maximum magnitude of 7.0, the density
function is listed in Table 1. As a check, the sum of the density function times the step
size is 1.0. The sum of the fm(m)*dm for 6<m<6.5 is 0.069.
Therefore, the probability that the magnitude is between 6.0 and 6.5 is 0.069.

Table 1.
M
5.025
5.075
5.125
5.175
5.225
5.275
5.325
5.375
5.425
5.475
5.525
5.575
5.625
5.675
5.725
5.775
5.825
5.875
5.925
5.975
6.025
6.075
6.125
6.175
6.225
6.275
6.325
6.375
6.425
6.475
6.525
6.575
6.625
6.675
6.725
6.775
6.825
6.875
6.925
6.975
SUM

f(m)
2.19352934
1.95523779
1.74283277
1.55350213
1.3847392
1.23430964
1.10022183
0.98070049
0.87416321
0.77919949
0.69455205
0.61910018
0.55184494
0.49189589
0.43845935
0.39082782
0.34837068
0.31052583
0.27679222
0.24672321
0.21992072
0.19602988
0.1747344
0.15575233
0.13883235
0.12375046
0.11030697
0.0983239
0.08764259
0.07812164
0.06963498
0.06207027
0.05532734
0.04931691
0.04395943
0.03918395
0.03492724
0.03113296
0.02775087
0.02473618
0.999

f(m)*dm
0.10967647
0.09776189
0.08714164
0.07767511
0.06923696
0.06171548
0.05501109
0.04903502
0.04370816
0.03895997
0.0347276
0.03095501
0.02759225
0.02459479
0.02192297
0.01954139
0.01741853
0.01552629
0.01383961
0.01233616
0.01099604
0.00980149
0.00873672
0.00778762
0.00694162
0.00618752
0.00551535
0.00491619
0.00438213
0.00390608
0.00348175
0.00310351
0.00276637
0.00246585
0.00219797
0.0019592
0.00174636
0.00155665
0.00138754
0.00123681
0.069

f(m)*dm
for 6.0<m<6.5

0.01099604
0.00980149
0.00873672
0.00778762
0.00694162
0.00618752
0.00551535
0.00491619
0.00438213
0.00390608

4. Consider a fault that is 70 km long and 12 km wide (down-dip). Assume that the
model for the mean characteristic magnitude on this fault is given by
M = log(A) + 4.0
and that the characteristic magnitude is normally distributed with a standard deviation of
0.2 magnitude units.
What is the probability that the magnitude of the characteristic earthquake is between 6.9
and 7.0?

Solution:
The mean magnitude of the characteristic earthquake is computed assuming full rupture
of the fault:
M = log(70km*12km) + 4.0 = 6.92
The pdf for a normal distribution is given by eq. 4-15. The probability that the
characteristic earthquake is between 6.9 and 7.0 is given by
7.0

P(6.9 M > 7.0)=

6.9

1
(M M )2
exp
dM
2 m
2 2m

This can be solved numerically. The values of the density function are listed in Table 2.
Table 2.
M
fm(M)
6.905
6.915
6.925
6.935
6.945
6.955
6.965
6.975
6.985
6.995

1.98910918
1.99408817
1.99408817
1.98910918
1.97918845
1.96440006
1.94485396
1.92069459
1.89209918
1.85927549
Sum:

fm (M) * dm
0.01989109
0.01994088
0.01994088
0.01989109
0.01979188
0.019644
0.01944854
0.01920695
0.01892099
0.01859275
0.195

The probability that M is between 6.9 and 7.0 is 0.195.

This can also be solved using excel functions:
NORMDIST(7.0,6.92,0.2,1) - NORMDIST(6.9,6.92,0.2,1)

5. Consider the peak acceleration from a magnitude 6.5 earthquake at a distance of 10

km. Assume that the peak acceleration (PGA) follows a lognormal distribution and that
the median value is 0.3g and the standard deviation is 0.6 natural log units.
What is the probability that the PGA from this earthquake is greater than 0.5g? (You can
compute this numerically or using standard calls in matlab or excel.)
Solution:
The lognormal distribution is given be eq (4.19):
1
1
(ln(x) ln()) 2
exp
2 ln2 x
2 ln x x

f LN (x)=

The probability of exceeding a value is given by eq 4-4:

P(x > z)= f (x) dx =

1
1
(ln(x) ln()) 2
exp
2 ln2 x
2 ln x x

where z = 0.5g, = 0.3g, and lnx=0.6.

This integral is solved numerically. The values of the density function are listed in Table
3. As a check, the density function integrates to unity. The sum of fm(m)*dm for
pga>0.5g is 0.197.
Therefore the probability that the PGA is greater than 0.5g is 0.197.
This can also be evaluated using excel functions:
1 - NORMDIST (ln(0.5),ln(0.3),0.6,1)

Table 3. Numerical integration of the density function for problem 5

PGA(g)
0.025
0.075
0.125
0.175
0.225
0.275
0.325
0.375
0.425
0.475
0.525
0.575
0.625
0.675
0.725
0.775
0.825
0.875
0.925
0.975
1.025
1.075
1.125
1.175
1.225
1.275
1.325
1.375
1.425
1.475
1.525
1.575
1.625
1.675
1.725
1.775
1.825
1.875
1.925
1.975
2.025
2.075
2.125
2.175
2.225
2.275
2.325
2.375
2.425
2.475
2.525
2.575
2.625
2.675
2.725

f(pga)
0.005015157
0.614449124
1.834589935
2.537959101
2.634243852
2.392541119
2.027733798
1.654600096
1.32188217
1.043975436
0.819784333
0.642367582
0.503425951
0.395179771
0.31100914
0.245546796
0.194554768
0.15473634
0.123548007
0.099035405
0.079699006
0.064387909
0.052217463
0.042506119
0.034727314
0.028472929
0.023425566
0.0193375
0.01601468
0.013304541
0.011086698
0.009265808
0.00776609
0.006527101
0.00550046
0.004647315
0.003936357
0.003342276
0.002844549
0.002426479
0.002074446
0.001777303
0.001525904
0.001312724
0.001131552
0.000977251
0.000845563
0.000732944
0.000636444
0.000553596
0.000482336
0.000420932
0.000367926
0.00032209
0.000282389
SUM:

f(pga) * dpga
0.000250758
0.030722456
0.091729497
0.126897955
0.131712193
0.119627056
0.10138669
0.082730005
0.066094109
0.052198772
0.040989217
0.032118379
0.025171298
0.019758989
0.015550457
0.01227734
0.009727738
0.007736817
0.0061774
0.00495177
0.00398495
0.003219395
0.002610873
0.002125306
0.001736366
0.001423646
0.001171278
0.000966875
0.000800734
0.000665227
0.000554335
0.00046329
0.000388305
0.000326355
0.000275023
0.000232366
0.000196818
0.000167114
0.000142227
0.000121324
0.000103722
8.88652E-05
7.62952E-05
6.56362E-05
5.65776E-05
4.88626E-05
4.22781E-05
3.66472E-05
3.18222E-05
2.76798E-05
2.41168E-05
2.10466E-05
1.83963E-05
1.61045E-05
1.41195E-05
1.000

f(pga) * dpga
for PGA>0.5g

0.040989217
0.032118379
0.025171298
0.019758989
0.015550457
0.01227734
0.009727738
0.007736817
0.0061774
0.00495177
0.00398495
0.003219395
0.002610873
0.002125306
0.001736366
0.001423646
0.001171278
0.000966875
0.000800734
0.000665227
0.000554335
0.00046329
0.000388305
0.000326355
0.000275023
0.000232366
0.000196818
0.000167114
0.000142227
0.000121324
0.000103722
8.88652E-05
7.62952E-05
6.56362E-05
5.65776E-05
4.88626E-05
4.22781E-05
3.66472E-05
3.18222E-05
2.76798E-05
2.41168E-05
2.10466E-05
1.83963E-05
1.61045E-05
1.41195E-05
0.197