Coordination and planning of large-scale projects

1. General presentation
In addition to forecasting techniques, a number of other quantitative techniques are available for use in
planning.
Generally, the modern industrial production imposes programming (planning), meaning the time and space
considered for each worker of complex, non-repetitive projects, made up of many distinct activities, in a complex
interdependence.
Methods used:
graphical methods: simple, used in the case of a small number of activities - Gantt method
mathematical methods from the domain of operational research, more powerful, used in the case of
complex projects that impose the automatic processing of data:
CPM method (Critical Path Method)
PERT method (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
Gantt and PERT:

- graphically display a projects activities

- provide estimates of how long the project and its component activities will take
- indicate which activities are critical at the time of the project completion
- suggest how long an activity within the project can be delayed without delaying the entire
project.

2. Gantt graph (chart)

Gantt chart is a simple chart that allows managers to schedule work forces across a series of tasks.
The application of this method consists in the a table elaboration, in which one may represent the activities
sequence, taking into account the relations among them and their duration. The activities are graphically
represented by bands that are equal in length with their duration. The graph is made up in an absolute time scale
that has as origin the beginning of the first activity. When the moment of start activity is established, one may
pass to the calendar time by considering all the non-work intervals (work shifts, holidays).
Example
Project: Design and execution of a stirring tank.
No

Activity name

Symbol

Previous activities

Duration
days

Establishment of the technologic parameters

Establishment of the mechanic parameters

Technological design

10

Mechanical designing

B, C

Assent and approval of the project

Elaboration of the execution drawings

15

Components execution

E, F

29

Reductor and engine acquisition

21

Equipment assemblage and mechanical trial

G, H

3. PERT Method
3.1. Basics
PERT is a network model used to plan and coordinate large-scale projects. As the figure shows, the
PERT network basically consists of circles (events)
indicating the beginning and ending of an activity, and
arrows indicating the activities themselves. The
activities are arranged sequentially form left to right.
The activity is a specific task that is part of the
project and requires time and resources for completion.
The activity symbol, used in a graph, is an arrow,
oriented to the right.

A
D
0

E
1

4
F

G
3

The event is a specific accomplishment at a

recognisable moment that occurs when all the former
activities have been completed. The events are
represented by circles and numbered in such a way that
the end event of an activity is higher that the beginning
one.

Graph example
- 1, 2,..., 4 events
- A, B,..., H activities

Therefore, a graph is a geometrical illustration of a multitude of activities and events.

3.2. Important notions

Path in the network: the sequence of activities leading from the beginning of the project to its end.
Total path: the path that links the initial event with the final one.
Critical path: the sequence of activities that takes the longest amount of time to get from the starting
circle to the finishing one. The activities on the critical path are the critical activities.
Activities on paths that are shorter than the critical path can experience delays and still not affect the
completion of the project. They posses normal slack and free-float.
3.3. Graph rules
a) the activity is started by a initial event and closed by an final one;
b) every event has at least one activity that ends and at least one activity that begins, with the exception of 2 special events (see
further);
c) any graph possess two special events, namely:
- the initial event, that marks the beginning of the project, has only starting activities;
- the final event, that marks the ending of the project, has only ending activities;
d) the events numbering is done in such way that the ending event of each activity to be higher in number than the beginning
event of that activity;
e) two activities cannot be limited by the same two events; in order to avoid this, same fictitious activities are introduced that
requires 0 time for completion;
f) the dependency relations among activities that are not in sequence are also shown by fictitious activities;
g) every event can be considered reached at only if all the activities that lead to it are concluded;
h) a graph cannot contain loops, meaning a event is run through once on any path.

3.4. Characteristic values

An activity that is limited by events i and j is carried on the time interval d ij - its duration. In respect with this interval, one
can define:

The events duration

The early date , tj, is the earliest moment at which the activities from j event can be started (it appears as the i event for
them). The following relation is used: tj max(ti dij)
(2.1)
The late date, tj*, is the latest moment in which the activity having this event as an ending must be concluded (it appears as
a j point for them). The following relation is used: t*i min(t*j dij )
(2.2)

The activities deadlines

The early start, ti, of an activity is the earliest moment at which that activity is started, the minimum start date of the
initial event respectively.
The late finish, tj*, of an activity is the latest moment at which the activity must be ended, the maximum finishing date of
that activity.
Obviously, the early finish of an activity is (ti+dij), and the late beginning of it is (tj* - dij).

Slacks

The normal slack between the events i and j, Rt(i, j), represents the extra time that an activity or event can be held up
without delaying the project completion. The following relation is used:
Rt (i, j) t*j (t i dij )

(2.3)

Free-float of an activity between the i and j moments, Rl(i, j), is a slack that represents the time with which an activity can
be delayed without affecting the earliest start time of an immediately following activity. The following relation is used:
Rl (i, j) (t i dij )max (t i dij )

(2.4)

To determine the free-float you should consider:

for activities that arrive alone to an event the free-float is null;
the activities for which the normal slack is null, the free-float will be null too;
for the activities that come two or more to an event the computation formula applied for each event is (2.4).
Rl Rt

(2.6)

Deadlines and the slacks determination

Activity
Events
Activity
symbol
(1)

Activity deadlines

beginning

end

(2)

(3)

Activity
duration

Beginning

Activity
slacks

End

min

max

min

max

normal

free

dij

ti

tj*-dij

ti+dij

tj*

Rt

Rl

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

in columns (1)-(4) are written down the information from the graph;
in column (5) the computations results ti, taking into account the i events from the column (2) are registered;
in column number (8) the results tj* taking in account the j events from column (3) are registered;
column (7) = column (5) + column (4);
column (6) = column (8) - column (4);
column (9) = column (8) - column (7);
the values from the column (10) are computed using the data from column (7), taking into account the j events from the
column (3).

Critical path determination

The critical path is the total path having for all components the slacks null. The critical path length (total sum of the
T
activities duration) is the minimum total duration of work accomplishment:
(2.7)
dij
i,jcriticalpath

The activities that are presented on the critical path are called critical activities and have no time slacks.

Activitys duration
The variable duration of each activity from a project can be characterised by the following features:
they are in the interval [a,b], having the limits:
a - the minimum duration of an activity, encountered when all the factors are favourable, in normal general
conditions; it is called optimistic duration;
b - maximum duration of an activity, encountered when all the factors are not favourable, excluding normal calamities
(earthquakes, etc.); it is called pessimistic duration;
it exists a most probable duration, m;
the probabilistic distribution is nearly a regular one, asymmetric of type, like in the figure 2.5.

mean duration for an activity considered to take place between i and j events:
d ij

a 4m b
6

(2.8)

deviation of the duration:

b a

ij2

probbility

In case of this type of distribution, on the basis of the three mentioned values,
one may compute:

(2.9)

b duration

Fig.2.5. Probability distribution of an

activity duration

Deviation is a measure of the risk factor in estimating the activity duration; the larger the deviation is, the greater the risk factor
becomes, regarding the real duration.

Probabilistic character of PERT method

The next relationships are to be used:
T

ij
(i , j )criticalpath

T2

2
ij
(i ,j )criticalpath

(2.10)
(2.11)

meaning that the total medium duration of a project is the sum of the medium duration of each critical activity, and the deviation
represents the sum of the critical activities deviations.
The PERT method allows the computation of the probability of accomplishing the project in a specified amount of time, if
a plan duration is imposed Tp; (TTp).
Considering the hypothesis of a normal distribution of the total duration of a project, T, often present in practice, one may
compute the probability index:
Z

Tp T

T2

(2.12)

One may determine the probability index in a percentage form by using the table from the appendices of this application.
P(T Tp ) P(Z)

(2.13)

For a project to be achieved one has to have above 50% probability.

Project re-evaluation
For same projects T>Tp. In this particular case, one has to reduce the execution total duration and this can be done by
applying technical or organisational measures.
Examples of organisational measures:
execution of successive works in simultaneously, if the technology allows it and there are physical possibilities;
redistribution of resources to decrease the duration of same activities, especially of the critical activities;
elimination of non-productive periods by introducing work on shifts, II and III or during the non-working days.
Examples of technical measures:
the increase of the mechanisation/automation degree of works;
modification of technologies.
In the case of resources distribution the check of free floats of activities is of a great importance. Actually, the
redistribution of resources is initially done from activities with free floats to critical activities that are simultaneously performed
and posses almost the same content.
Anyway, a rigorous computation must be done, because, in such situations, same non - critical activities may become
critical. We have to emphasise that the reduction of execution duration of same activities generally leads to increase in cost. That
is why the best variant is to be identified that corresponds to a minimum increase of the project cost.

APPENDIX : Probability determination knowing the probability index, Z.

probability

P (Tp >T)

Graphical representation

0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2

Probability factor
-3

-2

-1

3
Z

Table
Z
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
3,0

Probability (%)
50,0
54,0
57,9
61,8
65,5
69,2
72,6
75,8
78,8
81,6
84,1
86,4
88,5
90,3
91,9
93,3
94,5
95,5
96,4
97,1
97,7
98,2
98,6
98,9
99,2
99,4
99,9

Z
-0,0
-0,1
-0,2
-0,3
-0,4
-0,5
-0,6
-0,7
-0,8
-0,9
-1,0
-1,1
-1,2
-1,3
-1,4
-1,5
-1,6
-1,7
-1,8
-1,9
-2,0
-2,1
-2,2
-2,3
-2,4
-2,5
-3,0

Probability (%)
50,0
46,0
42,1
38,2
34,5
30,9
27,4
24,2
21,2
18,4
15,9
13,6
11,3
9,7
8,1
6,7
5,5
4,5
3,6
2,9
2,3
1,8
1,4
1,1
0,8
0,6
0,1