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You are on page 1of 66

Financial Mathematics

Jonathan Ziveyi1

1 University of New South Wales

Risk and Actuarial Studies, Australian School of Business

j.ziveyi@unsw.edu.au

1/66

Financial Mathematics

Plan

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Introduction

Allowing for Tax

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

Sinking Funds

Loans at a Flat Rate of Interest

Loan Valuation Example

Fixed Income Securities and Bonds

Pricing Bonds

Bond Valuation Example

Definitions of Yield, IRR and MIRR Rates

Investment Decision Criteria

Sensitivity of Results and Duty of Disclosure

Project Appraisal Example

2/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Introduction

which project is the best?

should we invest in that project?

gains:

minus costs:

3/66

sales

salvage value of assets

expenses

transaction costs

taxes

depreciation of assets

cost of debt

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Introduction

for an individual

for a company

personal wealth

personal loan

equity (shares)

debt (loans, bonds)

for a government

taxes

debt (treasury bonds)

build the cash flow model. Note that bonds are nothing else than

larger scale, tradable loans.

4/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Introduction

1. Introduction

2. Allowing for Tax

3. Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

4. Sinking Funds

5. Loans at a Flat Rate of Interest

6. Loan Valuation Example

7. Fixed Income Securities and Bonds

8. Pricing Bonds

9. Bond Valuation Example

10. Definitions of Yield, IRR and MIRR Rates

11. Investment Decision Criteria

12. Sensitivity of Results and Duty of Disclosure

5/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Allowing for Tax

analysing a cash flow:

security or project

the tax rate depends on the type of cash flows:

6/66

capital gains (e.g. increase of the value of a share or property,

above par redemption payments, . . . )

company)

individual considered

against gains to derive tax benefits

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Allowing for Tax

7/66

flows

added as positive cash flows

(the government wont pay any money, but a loss means tax

that otherwise would have been paid will not be paid)

in many cases price and yield calculations allowing for tax can

be done analytically (using financial mathematics formulae),

"by hand" and using a calculator

spreadsheet model or other relevant software.

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Allowing for Tax

investment in capital equipment. For taxation purposes this is

depreciated usually on two (alternative) bases:

WDV)

8/66

different cash flows

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

Loans Definitions:

of K1 , K2 ,. . . ,Kn at times 1, 2, . . . , n

Equation of value

L = K1 v + K2 v 2 + . . . + Kn v n

9/66

at effective rate i.

an interest component (which pays the interest due since the

last repayment)

is called the outstanding balance

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

Denote:

It

payment

multiplied by the rate of interest

i OBt1

Principal repaid should just be the difference between the actual

payment and the interest component

Kt It

10/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

at time 0

OB0 = L

at time 1

I1 = iOB0 = iL

PR1 = K1 I1 = K1 iOB0

OB1 = OB0 (1 + i) K1 = OB0 (K1 iOB0 )

= OB0 (K1 I1 ) = OB0 PR1

11/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

In general we have

It+1 = iOBt

PRt+1 = Kt+1 It+1

OBt+1 = OBt (1 + i) Kt+1 = OBt (Kt+1 It+1 )

= OBt PRt+1

Total repayments

KT =

Xn

Kt

IT =

Xn

It

total interest

and

L = KT IT =

n

X

t=1

12/66

PRt

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

13/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

equal installments of principal and interest at the end of each year

for 5 years with an interest rate of 5%. Determine the repayments.

14/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

Loan Schedule In practice it is often much easier to set out all the

information in a "loan schedule" providing information (for each

period) on:

Payments

Interest Due

Principal Repayments

Principal Outstanding

a spreadsheet.

15/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

Example For the $1000 5 year loan with level repayments, what are

the interest and principal components in each year? Give a

repayment schedule.

16/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

only the principal outstanding at the beginning (or the end) of the

period. This can be determined directly via:

OBt =

n

X

s=t+1

t

OBt = L (1 + i)

t

X

s=0

17/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Analysis of Loan Schedules and Repayments

$1000. For the first year the repayment was $200, and the interest

charged was 5%

For the second and third years the repayment was $150 p.a., and

interest charged was 4% p.a. What is the loan outstanding at the

end of the third year?

18/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sinking Funds

issuing a bond, etc. . . ) and will need to reimburse the loan

after n years

to the lender(s)

accumulate to the amount of the loan at time n in order to

ensure the reimbursement

Usually, j < i.

19/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sinking Funds

need to be equal to

L

,

sn j

which means that the total payment for each time unit is

iL +

L

.

sn j

and the second is the principal component, paid to the sinking

fund.

20/66

loan is reimbursed gradually using the amortisation method?

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sinking Funds

payments, beginning one year after the loan is made. The lender

wants annual payments of interest only at a rate of 7% and

repayments of the principal in a single lump sum at the end of 5

years.

The borrower can accumulate principal in a sinking fund earning an

annual interest rate of 6%, and decides to do this with 5 level

deposits starting one year after the loan is made. Determine the

repayment and model the cash flows of this transaction in a

spreadsheet.

21/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sinking Funds

Example

22/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Loans at a Flat Rate of Interest

I =Lf n

where:

interest)

R=

L+I

n

23/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Loans at a Flat Rate of Interest

the following terms:

10% deposit, flat interest of 10% p.a. with monthly repayments

over 30 months.

Determine the repayment and the effective annual rate of interest.

24/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Loans at a Flat Rate of Interest

the flat rate suggests

of interest that has to be paid is fixed)

25/66

some countries (mainly developed, such as in Australia)

microcredit institutions)

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Loan Valuation Example

$500,000 was issued bearing interest of 8% per annum payable

quarterly in arrears. The loan will be repaid at $105% by 20 annual

installments, each of nominal amount $25,000, the first repayment

being ten years after the issue date. An investor, liable to both

income tax and capital gains tax, purchased the entire loan on the

issue date at a price to obtain a net effective annual yield of 6%.

Find the price paid, given that his rates of taxation for income and

capital gains are 40% and 30% respectively.

What is the price paid allowing for taxation? Develop a spreadsheet

model for the loan allowing for both income and capital gains

taxation.

26/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Loan Valuation Example

complicated.

repayment:

+

face value reimbursedt

P

CGTt = 30% actual paymentt

500000

CFt = APRt + It TIt CGTt

27/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Loan Valuation Example

(which should be equal)

You may need to constraint the interest rate and the price to

be positive.

Note:

(x y )+ = max(x y , 0).

28/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Fixed Income Securities and Bonds

income:

bonds (or notes, or debentures), issued by

types of bonds

vs long term (e.g. Australian Treasury bond)

virtually risk free to very risky (junk bonds)

coupon bonds or zero-coupon bonds (ZCB)

indexed bonds, or real return bonds

but also

29/66

the government

private companies

. . . (see readings)

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Fixed Income Securities and Bonds

Government Bonds

Government Bonds:

determination of the structure of interest)

(in Australia: Treasury Notes and Treasury Bonds)

(in Australia: usually interest only until maturity)

for (Commonwealth) Government Bonds in Australia

30/66

coupons are paid on the 15th of each relevant month.

yields are quoted as nominal p.a. with the same frequency as

the coupon payments

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Fixed Income Securities and Bonds

of times a year, of amount

Fc

paid p times per year

p

where

F is the face value (par value)

c is the annual coupon rate

p is the frequency of payments

Payments will continue during the term to maturity of the bond

(denoted by n).

31/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Fixed Income Securities and Bonds

(reimbursed)

The redemption amount FR at maturity is not always equal to

the face value. We have

32/66

R < 1: the bond is redeemed below par

R > 1: the bond is redeemed above par

amount of face value can be reimbursed at par, or

below/above par.

sum payment (at maturity) and/or by earlier payments.

capital gain/loss (above/below par reimbursements)

is important for accounting, yield and tax purposes.

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Fixed Income Securities and Bonds

pays annual coupons at a rate of 10% p.a. The bond is

1. entirely redeemed at maturity with a payment of $120,000;

2. redeemed by 2 payments of $65,000 each at the end of the

second and third year, each for half of the bonds face value.

For both cases, establish a loan schedule showing interest

payments, principal repayments and capital gains.

33/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Pricing Bonds

34/66

present value of its future cash flows

critical assumption

values are equivalent ways of quoting the price of a bond)

nominal for US/CA/AU, sometimes also annual in EU)

as well as the risk associated to the bond as perceived by the

market (note also some rating agencies rate bonds AAA to C)

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Pricing Bonds

and face values are the same (R = 1) we have:

P = Fcanp i + Fvinp

= Fcanp i + F (1 ianp i )

= F + F (c i) anp i

compound interest techniques)

35/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Pricing Bonds

36/66

the seller will require the interest accumulated since the last

coupon date to be paid by the buyer

Australia, 7 days or less), the bond becomes ex-interest,

which means that the next coupon payment will still be paid

to the seller, even if the bond is not his property any more

to the next coupon payment date (including the coupon

payment at that date), and then further discount this present

value this to the (prior) sale date

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Pricing Bonds

The RBA uses the following formula to value Treasury Bonds when

maturity is between n and n + 1 semesters:

f

P = vi d [C + Gan i + 100v n ]

where:

37/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Pricing Bonds

Market price Two bonds with the same cash flows and the same

yield will have a different purchase price if coupons payment dates

are different, which may be confusing. Hence, bonds are usually

quoted at a market price. We distinguish:

Price-plus-accrued:

the purchase price

also: "dirty price", "full price", or "flat price"

Market price

accrued interest is removed

market price = dirty price accrued interest = P tFc

38/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Pricing Bonds

annual interest of 10% p.a. on 15-April and 15-October each year.

It is redeemable at par on 15 Oct in 6 years time. Find the purchase

and market prices to yield 8.5%p.a. (semi-annual) on 30 June.

39/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Pricing Bonds

vary at borrowers option

no final date (undated)

between two dates

at lenders option

easily determine yields at the purchase date. In such a case, they

can still determine:

40/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Bond Valuation Example

bond with a nominal face value of $100, 000 is redeemable by two

payments, one in 5 years time and the other in 10 years time. The

payment in 5 years time is for a nominal amount of $40, 000 and in

10 years time for a nominal amount of $60, 000. Redemption

payments are payable at $105 per $100 nominal face value.

Coupons are paid on the bond at 6% p.a semi-annually based on

the nominal amount outstanding. Tax is paid on the coupons at a

rate of 30% and tax is paid on capital gains at a rate of 15%.

Capital losses are assumed to be offset against other capital gains

of the investor.

41/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Bond Valuation Example

yield of 6.5% p.a. (semi-annual).

2. Determine the price to be paid by an investor to earn a net of

tax (after tax) yield of 5% p.a. (semi-annual) allowing only for

tax on the coupons.

3. Determine the price to be paid for the bond to yield an net of

tax return of 4% pa. (semi-annual) allowing for tax on

coupons and capital gains.

42/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Bond Valuation Example

yield and coupons are semi-annual so work in half years)

0.06

(40,000) a10 + 40,000 (1.05) v 10

2

0.06

6.5

+

(60,000) a20 + 60,000 (1.05) v 20 at

%

2

2

= 1,200 8.422395 + 42,000 0.726272

Price =

= 10,106.874 + 30,503.431 + 26,170.823 + 33,230.689

= 100,011.82

43/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Bond Valuation Example

0.06

(40,000) a10 + 40,000 (1.05) v 10

2

0.06

5.0

+ (1 0.3)

(60,000) a20 + 60,000 (1.05) v 20 at

%

2

2

= 840 8.752064 + 42,000 0.781198

Price = (1 0.3)

= 7,351.7337 + 32,810.333 + 19,642.3445 + 38,447.0694

= 98,251.48

44/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Bond Valuation Example

capital gains

Price = (1 0.3)

0.06

(40,000) a10

2

+40,000 (1.05) v

+ (1 0.3)

45/66

40000

0.15 40,000 (1.05)

P v 10

100000

0.06

(60,000) a20

2

+60,000 (1.05) v

at

10

20

60000

0.15 60,000 (1.05)

P v 20

100000

4.0

%

2

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Bond Valuation Example

We have

P = 840 8.982585 + [42,000 0.15 (42,000 0.4P)] 0.820348

+1260 16.351433 + [63,000 0.15 (63,000 0.6P)] 0.672971

and thus

(1 0.049221 0.060567) P = 7,545.371 + 29,286.4236

+20,602.8056 + 36,037.597

93,472.197

= 105,000.

P =

0.890212

46/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Definitions of Yield, IRR and MIRR Rates

length of an investment:

yield rate =

accumulated value

investment cost

1/length of investment

investment costs), or net cash flows

(reflecting risk and cost of capital)

47/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Definitions of Yield, IRR and MIRR Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

Option 1

-1000.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

Option 2

-1000.00

533.20

350.00

250.00

150.00

50.00

P

1000

Yield = IRR!

48/66

1/5

1 =

1762.90

1000

1/5

1 = 12.01%

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Definitions of Yield, IRR and MIRR Rates

For option 1

P

49/66

Inflows accumulated @ 3%

1000

1/5

1 =

1561.37

1000

1/5

1 = 9.32%

not equal to the IRR!

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Definitions of Yield, IRR and MIRR Rates

Numerical example

50/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Definitions of Yield, IRR and MIRR Rates

(Accum. value @ IRR) = (Invmt cost)(1 + IRR)length of invmt

Solution

MIRR:

(Accum. value @ reinv. rate) = (Invmt cost)(1+MIRR)length of invmt

51/66

reinvestment rates

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Definitions of Yield, IRR and MIRR Rates

Multiple IRR If cash flows are non conventional (change sign more

than once), there may be several IRR...

Example:

t

0

1

2

52/66

CFt

-59

= NPV(i):

154

-99

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Investment Decision Criteria

Decision criteria

1. Payback period

interest) to the initial investment

PV than the initial investment

same idea as payback period, but taking the time value of

money into account

53/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Investment Decision Criteria

5. MIRR

6. Profitability index

54/66

the ratio

(PV of repayments) / (initial investment)

remember the NPV is the difference:

(PV of repayments) - (initial investment)

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Investment Decision Criteria

55/66

average return

particularly used by investment funds to transform monthly

returns into longer term returns (semesterly, annual, . . . )

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Investment Decision Criteria

Numerical example

In this example, what is the decision that the various decision

criteria that were introduced would yield?

56/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sensitivity of Results and Duty of Disclosure

considering the purchase a small insurer. You forecast the following

cashflows for this insurer over the next 5 years:

Assume that these are all incurred at the middle of the year on

average.

At the end of the 5th year the business will be sold for a total

of 10m.

57/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sensitivity of Results and Duty of Disclosure

expense increase rate?

58/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sensitivity of Results and Duty of Disclosure

7. Reporting

A Member must ensure that his or her reporting (whether oral or

written) in respect of Professional Services provided:

(a) is appropriate, having regard to:

1. the intended audience;

2. its fitness for the purposes for which such

reporting may be required or relevant;

3. the likely significance of the reporting to its

intended audience;

4. the capacity in which the Member is acting; and

5. any inherent uncertainty and risks in relation to

the subject of the report;

(b) complies with any relevant Professional Standards.

Institute of Actuaries of Australia Code of Professional Conduct

(November 2009, Section 7)

59/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sensitivity of Results and Duty of Disclosure

4.2 Scope of economic valuation

[. . . ]

The Member should ascertain the materiality limits that apply to

the economic valuation bearing in mind:

Valuations (July 2004)

60/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Sensitivity of Results and Duty of Disclosure

3.3 Transparency

The models, methods and assumptions used for the economic

valuation should, as far as practical, be transparent, enabling

valuation results and sensitivities in the results to changes in

particular assumptions to be understood by the intended users of

the economic valuation.

Institute of Actuaries of Australia Guidance Note 552 on Economic

Valuations (July 2004)

61/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Project Appraisal Example

and then leasing it out to third parties. This project has the

following variables:

62/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Project Appraisal Example

Loan schedule

63/66

Financial Mathematics

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Project Appraisal Example

Taxable income

64/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Project Appraisal Example

IRR: 22.06%

65/66

Module 3: Loan Valuation and Project Appraisal Techniques

Project Appraisal Example

NPV check

66/66

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