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Patrick Wintour Political editor

Tuesday 7 April 2015 00.01 BST Last modified on Tuesday 7 April 2015 00.25 BST
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Tony Blair will enter the election campaign fray on Tuesday with the warning that
Britain faces a period of instability not seen since the second world war if a
Conservative victory results in a referendum on Europe.

Blair, who led Labour to three election victories, will praise Ed Milibands real
leadership on the EU, saying he admires the way he had shown he is own man
with his own convictions and determined to follow them, even when they go against
the tide.

Blair will make his call for a Labour vote under Milibands leadership in a speech
delivered alongside his wife Cherie in his old constituency in County Durham.

The former prime inister will turn on its head David Camerons repeated warning of
the chaos of a Labour victory, saying: Think of the chaos produced by the
possibility, never mind the reality, of Britain quitting Europe. Jobs that are secure
suddenly insecure; investment decisions postponed or cancelled; a pall of
unpredictability hanging over the British economy.

A decision to exit Europe would say a lot about us, and none of it good
Tony Blair
Although Blair has advised a traditional leftwing campaign could end up with a
traditional Labour defeat, his speech on Tuesday will focus on the threat to the UK of

an EU referendum a point of genuine convergence between Miliband and Blair,

who are not naturally ideological bedfellows.

In a campaign that has been bogged down in claim and counter claim about living
standards and secret tax plans, Blair will try elevate the level of the argument to a
discussion about Britains place in the world, warning that departure from the EU
would say something new and disturbing about the British character.

He will say: A decision to exit Europe would say a lot about us, and none of it good:
that an adventurous country has become a timid one; that one with global
ambitions has opted to be a parochial bystander; that a country known for its
openness to the world shuts the open door nearest to it; that a nation which has
built its history on confidence towards others defines itself by resentment to others;
that, with all the challenges of the world crowding in upon us, demanding strong
and clear leadership, instead of saying heres where the world should go, we say
count us out.

Blair has already given 1,000 to the Labour candidates in 106 Labour target seats
although in three cases, the candidates have rejected the money due to his role in
the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Ed Miliband, pictured at a campaign event in Warrington, has showed real

leadership on the EU, Tony Blair will say. Facebook Twitter Pinterest
Ed Miliband, pictured at a campaign event in Warrington, has showed real
leadership on the EU, Tony Blair will say. Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Reuters
Blair gave his support to his fierce rival and friend Gordon Brown in the 2010
election and, despite his doubts about much of Milibands politics, was determined
to praise him over Europe and condemn David Cameron for succumbing to a
rampant anti-European media. His influence over a modern electorate, though, is a
matter of dispute given the Iraq war and the way his sometimes secretive business
career intertwines with his role as a Middle East diplomat.

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Read more
Blair will say it is greatly to Ed Milibands credit that he faced down calls from the
media and many inside our party to follow the Tory concession. In doing so, he
showed real leadership. He showed that he would put the interests of the country
first. He showed that on this, as on other issues, he is his own man.

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He also says: There is, in my view, a complete under-estimation of the short-term

pain of negotiating exit. There would be a raft of different treaties, association
agreements and partnerships to be dis-entangled and re-negotiated. There would
be significant business uncertainty in the run-up to a vote but, should the vote go
the way of exit, then there would be the most intense period of business anxiety,
reconsideration of options and instability since the war.

Drawing on his own knowledge of Europe, he also challenges claims that the rest of
Europe will readily grant the concessions Cameron is likely to seek before staging a
referendum in 2017.

He warns: The rest of Europe will be vigorous in ensuring Britain gets no special
treatment. This will be a horrible process. Dont be in any doubt about that If I
was leading a business dependent on access to the single market or, more
important, employed in such a business, then the issue of Europe and the risks of
this would be a big decider in my vote.

Blair claims Cameron does not genuinely want to leave Europe as it stands. The
offer of a referendum was a concession to party, a manoeuvre to access some of
the Ukip vote, a sop to the rampant anti-Europe feeling of parts of the media. This
issue, touching as it does the countrys future, is too important to be traded like
this.

Analysis Inside the campaigns: Disengagement is the meme'

Three party insiders will be giving the Guardian their views on the general election
throughout the campaign. One week in they focus on Labours strengths, a
surprisingly chirpy Nick Clegg and whether the voters are even listening
Read more
Those who want to leave Europe are not part of a new open-minded, culturally
tolerant Britain, he will claim, but derive their instincts from near pre-historic
politics, the desire to blame others.

He urges voters to raise their sights and look at the risks in the world and global
security, in an era defined by the rise of China and India, as well as terrorism and
resurgent Russian nationalism.

He will ask: Do we really think this is the time in which to put into play our very
membership of the European Union, the largest commercial market and most
developed political union in the world? And the one on our doorstep? So that,
instead of playing a leading role in resolving these common challenges, we would
decide to engage in the juddering impact of a negotiation which would weaken all
these alliances and put us out of the leadership game?

Blairs intervention comes as Labour claims, on the basis of parliamentary written

answers, there are now 600 fewer GP surgeries across England open at the weekend
or in the evening compared with the time of the last election. In addition, the
governments own survey completed late last year shows 2m more patients
unhappy with GP opening hours compared with three years ago. Andy Burnham, the
shadow health secretary, blamed relaxation of the GP contract and the removal of
financial incentives to stay open.

Cameron promised to extend opening hours in the 2010 Tory manifesto. The health
secretary, Jeremy Hunt, said Labours figures were out of date, and do not include
the Prime Ministers Challenge Fund, introduced in 2014, and covering more than
1,100 practices. Labour said the patient satisfaction survey was conducted after the
Challenge Fund started.