1

A METHOD FOR DEVELOPING CLIMATOLOGICAL RAINFALL

INFORMATION: A PRELIMINARY APPLICATION TO LUZON
M. A. Estoque and R. T. F. Balmori
Climate Studies Division
Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines

email: mae@observatory.ph, rochelle@observatory.ph

ABSTRACT
A method for developing climatological information of monthly rainfall for the Philippines is described.

The

information consists of monthly rainfall at a uniform array of grid points. This array can be used to construct climatological
rainfall maps and other types of graphical representations with the aid of a geographical information system. The method,
which has been developed, is based on combining three types of rainfall information. These consist of grid point rainfall
values from a fluid dynamical model of the atmosphere, rainfall observations from rain gauge stations and satellite estimates
of rainfall. These three types of information are combined by an objective analysis technique in order to obtain rainfall at a
uniform network of grid points.
The present paper describes an initial application of the method to the island of Luzon for the month of June. In this
application, only model-generated rainfall and rainfall from rain gauge stations are used. Satellite data are not included in
the application because these are still not available. The atmospheric model, which is used in this initial application, is a
simple model--the mixed layer model. The climatological rainfall information, which is produced by the method, is used to
construct a climatological map of rainfall for the month of June. The map is compared with a corresponding map prepared
by the Climate Branch, Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). The
map, which is produced by the present method, exhibits higher horizontal resolution and greater accuracy.

____________________________________________
1. INTRODUCTION

rainfall. Subsequent attempts to revise the

classification have been made.

The first significant study of the climate

However,

the revised version is not significantly

of the Philippines has been made by Father

different

from

Jose Coronas (1916). An important result of

classification. A map of this version is

the study is a regional classification of

shown in Fig. 1. An examination of the

rainfall into four climatic types: the so-

geographical distribution of the different

called Coronas rainfall types. These types

rainfall types indicates that these are

give a general description of the large-scale

primarily determined by the directions of the

regional variations of the total monthly

seasonal

winds

the

with

original

respect

Coronas

to

the

2
mountains. In particular, the rainfall patterns

satellite

observations

indicate the occurrence of rain over the

observations.

and

rain

gauge

windward slopes of mountains and dry

The construction of an accurate data set

conditions over the leeside. Consequently,

on rainfall for the Philippines is difficult due

there is little rainfall between mountains.

to the sparse distribution of rain gauge

As indicated in Fig. 1, the Coronas

stations and the large rainfall variations over

classification and its subsequent revisions

mountainous areas. It is well known that

provide only general information on the time

mountainous terrain, or orography, generates

of occurrence of the rainy and the dry

large space and time variations of rainfall.

seasons of the year. It does not provide high

Coastlines also produce similar variations

resolution,

with generally less amplitudes. The weather

quantitative

information

concerning the geographical distribution of

disturbances,

which

produce

these

rainfall.

variations, are small in horizontal scale.

Information consisting of data sets of

These consist of convective and mesoscale

rainfall on a regular grid is needed in

disturbances, whose dimensions range from

agriculture,

architectural

a few kilometers to tens of kilometers. We

planning and other practical applications.

note that these dimensions are relatively

The data are important as input

to

small compared to the distances between the

geographical information systems which

networks of rain gauge stations in the

could produce rainfall maps and other types

Philippines. This condition is indicated in

of graphical output for many kinds of users.

Fig. 2, which shows the present network of

For example, farmers could utilize such

rain gauge stations. Note the large areas

maps as useful guides in planning cropping

without stations in Northern Luzon and in

patterns

agricultural

Mindanao. This network does not show all

In this report, the authors

of the stations which are used in this study.

describe a method for constructing a set of

In the application of the method to be

gridded rainfall data as well as a high

described here, we have included the

resolution, accurate rainfall atlas for the

observations from some stations which

Philippines.

The method is based on

stopped operating after the Second World

combining rainfall output data from fluid

War. The locations of the current stations

dynamical

with respect to mountains may be inferred

hydrology,

and

structures.

in

models

designing

of

the

atmosphere,

3
from Fig. 3, which shows the topography of
Luzon.

Fig. 1. A revised version by PAGASA of the original classification of rainfall types by Father
Jose Coronas. Type 1: Two pronounced season, dry from November to April and wet during the
rest of the year. Type 2: No dry seasons with a very pronounced maximum rainfall from
November to January. Type 3: Seasons not very pronounced, relatively dry from November to
April and wet during the rest of the year. Type 4: Rainfall more or less evenly distributed
throughout the year.

Fig. 2. Map showing the current network of rain gauge stations in the Philippines.

Fig. 3. Map of the terrain heights (m) for Luzon and vicinity.

Fig. 2 shows the average distance

Philippines and other tropical regions. The

between stations is of the order of 100 km.

large space variability of rainfall associated

This is about ten times bigger than the

with mountainous terrain is indicated in Fig.

horizontal scale of weather disturbances,

4. The figure shows a comparison of the

which are generated by mountainous and

July climatological rainfall for three pairs of

coastal regions. Such disturbances produce a

stations. The three pairs consist of Dagupan

considerable amount of rainfall in the

and Baguio, Iba and Tarlac (about 50 km to

6
the east), and Manila and Antipolo (about 20

mountains is primarily the result of two

km east of downtown Manila). Note that

physical processes: mechanically forced and

Baguio has 500 mm of rainfall more than

thermally

Dagupan, a station only about 50 km away

Mechanical forcing occurs when air is

from Baguio. This big difference is due to

forced upward as it blows along the

the fact that Baguio is on the windward side

windward slopes of a mountain. Fig. 5

of the Cordillera Mountains while Dagupan

illustrates this effect of mountains in

is located in the lowlands along the

generating rainfall over the windward

shoreline of Lingayen Gulf.

The equally

slopes. In contrast, the leeside is generally

large rainfall difference of 500 mm between

characterized by dry conditions. This is due

Tarlac and Iba is due to fact that Iba is near

to the fact that, as the air descends on this

the

Zambales

side, it becomes warmer and less humid.

Mountains. In contrast, Tarlac is located on

Thermally forced upward motions occur

the leeside to the east.

The difference

during the daytime on sunny days because

between Antipolo and Manila rainfall is

the mountain acts as an elevated heat source

smaller than those of the preceding pair of

under these conditions. The heat source

stations. Nevertheless, it is still substantial

generates

if one considers that the distance between

daytime. The upward motions which are

the stations is only 20 km.

generated

windward

side

of

the

The larger

forced

upslope
by

upward

motions

mechanical

motions.

during
and

the

thermal

amount of rainfall in Antipolo is presumably

forcing cool the air by adiabatic expansion.

due to the effect of the Sierra Madre

The cooling, in turn, produces clouds and

Mountains. The large space variability of

rainfall if the air is sufficiently moist. In

rainfall, which is indicated in Fig. 4, cannot

summary, the large variability of rainfall

be resolved by the current network of rain

produced by mountains, together with the

gauge stations. This lack of resolution is a

usual lack of rain gauge observations over

formidable obstacle in the construction of an

mountainous

accurate rainfall atlas.

problems in the construction of rainfall maps

regions,

are

the

biggest

described

over these regions. In this connection, one

above indicates the important role of

finds that this is a major problem in

mountains in determining the variations in

constructing rainfall maps for Northern

The

rainfall.

rainfall

comparison

The enhancement of rainfall by

7
Luzon,

which

is

characterized

by

mountainous terrain.

1000

Baguio

Rainfall (mm)

800

Iba
600

400

Dagupan

Antipolo
Tarlac

200

Manila

0
1

Stations

Fig. 4. Variability of rainfall associated with orographic effects. Baguio, Iba and
Antipolo are located over the windward side of a mountain.

Fig. 5. Schematic diagram showing the generation of rainfall by a mountain.

Adapted from Barros and Lettenmaier (1994).

8
Methods for estimating rainfall due to

several

investigators.

For

example,

orographic effects have been developed by

Grassotti and Garand (1994) have developed

several investigators on the basis of fluid

a method for estimating rainfall at grid

dynamical and statistical models. Examples

points with the aid of numerical model

of methods which use fluid dynamical

forecasts

models of the atmosphere for estimating

observations (infrared and visible). On the

rainfall due to mechanically-forced lifting

other hand, Xie and Arkin (1996) have

have

and

developed an algorithm for constructing

Lettenmaier (1994). These methods have

gridded fields of monthly rainfall by using

been applied over the mountainous regions

estimates from four sources of satellite

of the Western United states.

They are

observations: infrared, visual, microwave

primarily suitable for describing rainfall

scattering and microwave emission. These

variations whose horizontal scales range

observations

from tens to hundreds of kilometers and for

generated by a numerical prediction model

time scales corresponding to climatological

to estimate rainfall. A similar method has

time scales.

Fluid dynamical models for

been described by Huffman et. al. (1995). It

simulating rainfall due to thermally forced

must be mentioned that the methods which

lifting by mountains have been formulated

have been developed by these investigators

by Orville (1966). A model for simulating

are suitable only for the determination of

rainfall generated by sea breezes has been

rainfall distributions due to large-scale

described by Estoque et al. (1994).

(synoptic) weather disturbances.

been

described

by

Barros

In

and

are

geostationary

merged

with

satellite

rainfall

The

connection with the use of the statistical

horizontal resolution of such distributions is

method

of the order of one hundred kilometers.

for

estimating

rainfall

over

mountainous regions, Daly et al. (1994)

have described an ingenious method.

It

estimates rainfall at points of a regular grid

3. METHODOLOGY

from irregularly distributed rain gauge

observations.
The use of fluid dynamical models for

In this section, the authors describe the

method for the construction of a gridded

estimating rainfall, in combination with

distribution

satellite observations, has been done by

Philippines.

of

rainfall

data

for

the

The method is basically a

9
modification of the methods mentioned in

modified by a scanning procedure which

the preceding section.

Modifications are

incorporates the contribution of rain gauge

also introduced in order to incorporate the

observations in the vicinity of the grid

effects of small-scale rainfall variations

points. Several scans with varying radial

which occur in the Philippines, especially

distances from the grid points are used.

those associated with orographic effects.

The modifications involve the use of a highresolution fluid dynamical model (horizontal

4. INITIAL APPLICATION OF THE

grid distance of about 5 km) and satellite

METHOD

observations with about the same resolution.

The gridded information from the fluid

We have made an initial application of

dynamical model and from the satellite data

the method described above in order to

are subsequently combined with rainfall

determine its feasibility. This application is

observations from rain gauge stations. By

limited in terms of the following aspects:

combining the high-resolution model rainfall

and satellite rainfall estimates with the low-

1. The area is limited to the island of

resolution rain gauge data, our method is

Luzon and only for the month of

able to produce a relatively accurate, high-

June.

resolution set of gridded rainfall data.

application to the area to Luzon

The method for combining grid point

We

have

confined

our

because its northern sections are

rainfall values from a fluid dynamical model

mountainous.

and

gauge

provide a good test for the ability of

observations is based on the Cressman

the method to incorporate orographic

objective analysis technique. This technique

effects.

satellite

data

with

rain

Hence,

it

could

requires the use of a preliminary or first

guess of the grid point values of the rainfall.

2. Only rainfall observations from rain

We plan to construct the first guess as a

gauge stations are used in this initial

weighted average of the grid point values

application.

from the model and from the satellite data.

are not used because these are not

In accordance with the technique, the first

available at the present time.

guess grid point values are subsequently

Satellite observations

10
3. The model rainfall is generated by

the mixed layer; (3) a stable layer which

the mixed layer model, a simple

represents

the

upper

layers

of

the

model of the atmosphere. More

atmosphere. The surface layer serves as a

sophisticated three-dimensional fluid

convenience for estimating the turbulent

dynamical models will be considered

fluxes of heat, momentum and other

in future applications of the method.

atmospheric properties between the ground

and the mixed layer. The mixed layer is the

In brief, the initial application will

active layer, which describes the variations

construct a rainfall atlas by combining

in time and space of the important

model-generated

atmospheric

rainfall

data

with

variables,

such

as

wind,

observations from rain gauge stations. The

temperature, clouds, rain and others. Here,

fluid dynamical model which is used to

the variables are assumed to be constant

generate the rainfall is the so-called mixed

along the vertical; however, they vary both

layer model. It has been used in previous

temporally and horizontally.

studies to simulate rainfall for different

indicates the important parameters which

types of weather conditions. It was used by

describe the inversion. These are the height

Lavoie (1972) to study rainfall which is

of the inversion (ZT) and the strength of the

associated with lake-effect storms over Lake

inversion (DTN).

Ontario. It was also used by Estoque and

describe

Ninomiya (1976) for studying precipitation

atmosphere with respect to buoyancy-

over Japan. The precipitation is generated by

generated motions.

the warm waters of the Japan Sea during

important in the generation of clouds and

outbreaks of cold air from Siberia in the

rain.

winter monsoon season.

the

The figure

These two quantities

thermal

stability

of

the

These motions are

The model

A detailed description of the dynamical

equations are derived by assuming that the

equations of the mixed layer model is given

atmosphere has the simple vertical structure

in the abovementioned studies and in other

shown in Fig. 6.

subsequent articles.

The diagram shows that the complex

We will, therefore,

limit the discussion of the model to the

structure of the real atmosphere is replaced

equations which predict rainfall.

by three layers: (1) a surface layer adjacent

original

to the ground; (2) an overlying layer called

prediction in previous studies of Lavoie and

formulation

for

the

The
rainfall

11

ZH

STABLE LAYER

Height

ZT

Inversion Strength, DTN

M
MIXED LAYER

ZS
Zo

10 m

SURFACE LAYER

Potential Temperature ()

Fig. 6. Vertical structure of the atmosphere according to the mixed layer model.
Estoque & Ninomiya is somewhat semi-

The cloud droplets subsequently grow into

empirical. It estimates the precipitation rate

bigger drops (raindrops) as a result of two

in terms of the height of the cloud base, the

physical

inversion height and the vertical velocity.

conversion

We have replaced this by a more realistic

diffusion of small droplets toward bigger

treatment which is based on the cloud

droplets. The second (ACR) describes the

microphysics formulation of Kessler (1969).

accretion or capture of cloud droplets by the

Kesslers formulation involves equations

bigger

which predict the amount of water in cloud

downward due to gravity. The formulation

droplets and in the bigger raindrops. The

also incorporates the depletion of raindrops

formulation assumes that cloud droplets are

by evaporation (EVAP).

formed after the air becomes supersaturated.

processes.

The

(AUCON),

raindrops

as

first,

describes

these

autothe

accelerate

12
The two processes, which involve the

Vr, terminal velocity of raindrops

formation of rain and its evaporation, are

KH, horizontal diffusion coefficient

described by the equations,

KV, vertical diffusion coefficient

s, standard air density of the mixed layer

Eq. (1)
2Q 2Q
2Q
Q
Q
Q
Q
= u
v
w
+ K H 2 + 2 + KV

t
x
y
z
z 2
y
x

The most important output of the model

is the rainfall rate; this quantity is given by,

1
+
[ AUCON(Q Qr ) ACR( Q Qr ) + EVAP( Qr Q )]
s

Rainfall Rate = -s(VrQr)

Eq. (2)
Q r
Q r
Q r
Q r

( sVr Qr ) +
= u
v
w

t
x
y
z
z
1
[AUCON (Q Qr ) + ACR ( Q Qr ) EVAP ( Qr Q )]
s

We have adapted these equations for

our particular model so that they apply to
entire air columns of the mixed layer. This
is done by integrating the equations with
respect to height from the surface layer to

where,

the top of the mixed layer. The integration

AUCON = K 1 [ S ( Q Q S ) K 2 ]

simplifies the model by eliminating the

ACR = C e K 3 s (Q Q s ) s Q r x10 6

EVAP = K 4 s [Q s Q ] s Q r 10 6

0.875

0.65

The important variables are defined as

follows,
Q, amount of water in vapor and cloud
droplets
Qr, amount of water in raindrops
u, wind component along the x-axis
v, wind component along the y-axis
w, wind component along the z (vertical
axis)

dependence of the equations along the

vertical coordinate.
In spite of all the simplifications
introduced above, the model is able to
simulate the rainfall contributions due to
mechanically forced ascending motions over
the windward slopes of mountains and due
to weather disturbances, which are generated
by the daytime heating of the ground. This
heating is incorporated by assuming a
diurnal variation of the surface temperature.
The equation specifies a sinusoidal variation
of the ground temperature with a maximum
at noon and a minimum at midnight.

13
Eqs. (1) and (2), together with the
dynamical equations for the mixed layer,

the mixing ratio for water vapor and the

height of the inversion.

have been integrated numerically in order to

Starting with an initial time of 6 A.M.,

generate gridded rainfall data. A rectangular

we integrated the model for a period of 24

coordinate system is used. The grid distance

hours. At the end of the period, the model

is equal to 8 km along both the x (east-west)

calculates the total or the accumulated

and the y (northsouth) directions. Initial

rainfall values at grid points. The pattern of

values of the potential temperature, wind,

the accumulated rainfall is shown in Fig. 7.

height of the mixed layer and the different

Looking at the rainfall distribution, we note

water variables are specified. In particular,

a striking similarity between this distribution

the corresponding amounts of cloud and rain

and the pattern of terrain elevation in Fig. 3.

material are initially set to zero. The initial

Note that high (low) values of rainfall are

wind is assumed to be from the southwest

associated with correspondingly high (low)

with east-west and north-south components

values of terrain elevations. The dominant

equal to 5 m/s. The corresponding values of

features of the rainfall distribution are the

the temperature and water vapor are

three major north-south bands of rainfall

determined from a typical sounding in June.

maxima. These are associated with the

The initialization is quite subjective due to

Zambales

Mountains,

the use of the mixed layer model as a

Mountains

and

representation of the actual atmosphere. The

Northern Luzon.

subjectivity is introduced in the specification

associated with orographic effects due to

of the parameters which define the wind,

mechanical

moisture content and the temperature-related

monsoon flow and, to a lesser extent, due to

variables, such as the height of the mixed

the thermal forcing during the daytime.

layer and the strength of the inversion

Over Northern Luzon, one can see a rainfall

(DTN). Fortunately, numerical experiments

minimum

with the model indicate that the rainfall

between a maximum along the Cordilleras

pattern is relatively insensitive to most of

toward the west and the Sierra Madre

the initial conditions.

Mountains toward the east.

However, the

magnitude of the rainfall is quite sensitive to

the

Madre

Cordilleras

over

The rainfall bands are

forcing

along

Sierra

the

of

the

southwest

Cagayan

Valley

A similar

rainfall minimum is indicated over Central

14
Luzon between the Zambales Mountains and

grid point values of model rainfall. In

the Sierra Madre Mountains to the east.

essence, this additive process of arriving at

The grid point values corresponding to

the model rainfall assumes that the rainfall

the rainfall distribution in Fig. 7 are

consists of the contributions of mesoscale

subsequently multiplied by a suitable factor

and

in order to convert them into preliminary

disturbances.

climatological values for June; the factor is

contribution corresponds to the average of

subjectively

the

the observed rainfall from rain gauges.

preliminary grid point values are added to a

Finally, the set of grid point values is used

geographical

the

as the input (first guess) for an objective

domain; the average is computed by using

analysis technique. This technique is based

the climatological rain gauge observations

on the Cressman successive correction

for June. The addition produces a final set of

method.

specified.
rainfall

Next,
average

for

large

synoptic

scale

The

synoptic

Fig. 7. Rainfall pattern for June produced by the dynamical model.

Units: rainfall depth in cm.

weather
scale

15
two regions, there are no observations (see

5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Fig. 2).
As indicated in the previous section, our

Next, we discuss a more quantitative

first application of the method involves the

evaluation of the performance of the

construction of a rainfall map of Luzon for

method. This is done by calculating the

the month of June. The result of the

rainfall obtained by the method at the

application is shown in Fig. 8. Looking at

location of the rain gauge stations.

the map, one notes that high elevations are

calculation is an interpolating technique

generally associated with high rainfall.

which uses the four grid points surrounding

Maximum values of 900 mm occur over the

a particular station. The technique computes

Cordilleras and the Zambales Mountains.

a weighted average of the four grid point

These values appear to agree with the large

values surrounding the rain gauge station.

rainfall values at Iba (Zambales) and Baguio

The weight is inversely proportional to the

in Table 1. On the other hand, the map

distance between the grid point and the rain

shows low rainfall along the Cagayan Valley

gauge station. The interpolated values are

with a minimum value of about 100 mm.

then

This is confirmed by the low rainfall

observations; these interpolated values and

observed at Aparri and Tuguegarao in Table

the observations are shown in Table 2. The

1. The map also shows relatively low values

table shows a close agreement between the

of about 200 mm over the Central Plain of

observed rainfall and the rainfall obtained by

Luzon. The low rainfall along the Cagayan

the method. The largest error is found in

Valley and over the Central Pain is

Baguio with a value of 74 mm.

consistent with the picture shown in Fig. 5.

These two regions are located at the leeside
of mountain ranges. At this juncture, it is
interesting to speculate whether the large
values of rainfall shown in Fig. 8 over the
Northern Cordilleras east of Vigan are
realistic. These large values are also seen
over the mountains of Mindoro.

In these

compared

with

the

rain

The

gauge

16

Fig. 8. Climatological rainfall (mm) for the month of June obtained by using the method.

17
Table 1. June climatological rainfall at present rain gauge stations of PAGASA.
STATION
Iba
Baguio
Dagupan
NAIA
Laoag
Vigan
Aparri
Tuguegarao
Calapan
Infanta
Daet
Legaspi
Casiguran
Ambulong

LONGITUDE (O)
15.3
16.4
16.1
14.5
18.2
17.9
18.4
17.6
13.4
14.8
14.1
13.1
16.3
14.1

LATITUDE (O)
120
120.6
120.3
121
120.5
120.4
121.6
121.7
121.2
121.6
123
123.7
122.1
121.1

TOTAL RAINFALL (MM)

601
501
374
245
350
340
154
158
191
248
182
252
222
256

Table 2. Comparison between calculated rainfall and rainfall from rain gauge observations.
STATIONS
Iba
Baguio
Dagupan
NAIA
Laoag
Vigan
Aparri
Tuguegarao
Calapan
Infanta
Daet
Legaspi
Casiguran
Ambulong

OBSERVED RAINFALL (MM)

601
501
374
245
350
340
154
158
191
248
182
252
222
256

The comparison is summarized by the

scatter diagram in Fig. 9.

The diagram

CALCULATED RAINFALL (MM)

601
427
374
268
349
340
154
158
191
248
182
252
222
245

Baguio; here, the method underestimates the

rainfall.

Some statistical measures of the

shows a very high correlation between the

accuracy are: Square of the correlation

two quantities.

The largest difference

coefficient: 0.93; root mean square error:

between the two quantities is found for

1.251; average absolute error: 3.875. The

18
regression equation in Fig. 9 may be used to

along the entire coast of the Ilocos Region.

estimate the actual rainfall from grid point

There are other differences between the two

rainfall in regions without rain gauge

maps.

stations.

shows a narrow strip of maximum rainfall

For example, the PAGASA map

A final evaluation of the method is done

along the western coast of Zambales

by comparing the rainfall map, which is

Province. On the other hand, our present

produced

map locates these regions of maxima farther

corresponding map prepared by the Climate

to the east over the western slopes of

Branch of PAGASA (See Fig. 10). Looking

mountains. Still another difference involves

at both maps, one finds that there are some

rainfall patterns in the vicinity of the Sierra

similarities in the general patterns of

Madre Mountains.

rainfall.

The most important similarity

shows no evidence of orographic effects. In

involves the existence of minimum rainfall

contrast, these effects are well-defined in

along the Cagayan Valley in both maps.

our map. The lack of orographic effects of

However, the enhancement of rainfall by

the Sierra Madre Mountains in the PAGASA

mountains is not accurately portrayed by the

map results in the absence of a well-defined

PAGASA map.

minimum rainfall over Central Luzon. The

by

the

method,

with

For example, this map

map

The PAGASA map

shows a rainfall maximum which occurs

present

indicates

well-defined

over the coastal region in the province of La

minimum. In general, the evaluation shows

Union to the northeast of Lingayen Gulf.

that the present map has more details and

This maximum is not consistent with the

greater accuracy in the rainfall patterns than

relatively low rainfall, which is observed

the PAGASA map.

700
y = 0.9079x + 25.004
R2 = 0.9332

Calculated

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Observed

Fig. 9. Scatter diagram showing the relationship between observed rainfall at rain gauge
stations and corresponding calculated rainfall.

19

Fig. 10. Climatological rainfall atlas for the month of June prepared by PAGASA.
Adapted from a chart available from the Climate Branch of PAGASA.

20
indicates that present map incorporates the

6. SUMMARY AND FUTURE WORK

effects of mountains more realistically than

This paper describes a method for
constructing

grid

point

array

of

that of the PAGASA map. Furthermore, the

map appears to have a higher horizontal

climatological rainfall values; this can be

resolution and greater accuracy.

portrayed graphically as a climatological

applications of the method will use a more

rainfall map.

The grid point values are

realistic three-dimensional model of the

obtained by combining rainfall produced by

atmosphere instead of the simple mixed

a fluid dynamical model of the atmospheric

layer model. In addition, satellite-derived

model with rainfall observations.

The

rainfall will be included as an input to the

observations, in turn, may consist of rainfall

method. Ultimately, we expect to construct a

observations from ground-based stations as

complete set of climatological rainfall data,

well as satellite-derived rainfall. The three

together with rainfall atlases for all months

data sets (model rainfall, rain

of the year and for the entire Philippines.

gauge

Future

observations and satellite-derived rainfall)

can be combined in order to generate a
uniformly-spaced grid point array of rainfall.

REFERENCES:

This is done with the aid of an objective

analysis technique. The result of an initial

Barros, A.P. and D.P. Lettenmaier, 1994:

application of the method is presented. In

Dynamic

modeling

of

orographically

this limited application, we use a mixed

induced precipitation. Rev. of Geophys, 32,

layer model to obtain the model-derived

265-284.

rainfall. The observations are limited only to

satellite

Coronas, S. J., 1920: The climate and the

observations are not used because they are

weather of the Philippines, 1903 to 1918.

currently not available. The method is

Bureau of Printing, Manila, 194 pp.

rain

applied

gauge

in

observations;

the

construction

of

climatological rainfall map for Luzon for the

Daly, C. and Co-authors, 1994: A statistical-

month of June. The map is compared with a

topographic

corresponding map which has been prepared

climatological

previously by PAGASA. The comparison

model

for

precipitation

mapping
over

21
mountainous terrain. J. Appl. Meteor., 33,

mountainous terrain. J. Atmos. Sci., 22,

140-158.

684-699.

Estoque, M. A. and K. Ninomiya, 1976:

Xie, P. and P. A. Arkin, 1996: Analysis of

Numerical simulation of Japan Sea Effect.

global monthly precipitation using rain

Tellus, 28, 243-253.

gauge observations, satellite estimates, and

numerical model predictions. J. Climate, 9,

Grassotti,

C.

and

L.

Classification-based
using satellite

Garand,

rainfall

1994:

estimation

and numerical forecast

model fields. J. Appl. Meteor., 33, 159178.

Huffman, G. J, and Co-authors, 1995:
Global precipitation estimates based on a
technique for combining satellite-based
estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP
model

precipitation

information.

J.

Climate, 8, 1284-1295.
Kessler, E., 1969: On the Distribution and
Continuity

of

Atmospheric

Water

Substance

Circulation.

in

Meteor.

Monogr. No. 32, Amer. Meteor. Soc.,

Boston, Mass., 84.
Lavoie, R. L., 1972: A mesoscale numerical
model of lake effect storms. J. Atmos. Sci.,
29, 1025-1040.
Orville, H.D., 1965: A numerical study of
the initiation of cumulus clouds over

840-858.

22

LIST OF SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

Report No. 1

CLIMATOLOGY OF RAINFALL AND WIND FOR THE

PHILIPPINE-SOUTH CHINA SEA REGION PART 1: MONTHLY
VARIATIONS (M.A. Estoque, M.V. Sta Maria and J.T. Villarin S.J.;
Quezon City, Philippines; March 2000)

Report No. 2

CLIMATOLOGY OF RAINFALL AND WIND FOR THE

PHILIPPINE-SOUTH CHINA SEA REGION PART 2: VARIATIONS DUE
TO EL NINO AND LA NINA (M.A. Estoque, M.V. Sta Maria and J.T.
Villarin S.J.; Quezon City, Philippines; May 2000)

Report No. 3

CLIMATE CHANGES DUE TO THE URBANIZATION OF

METRO MANILA (M.A. Estoque and M.V. Sta Maria; Quezon City,
Philippines; June 2000)

Report No. 4

CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANGES IN RAINFALL DUE TO

URBANIZATION (M.A. Estoque and E.R. Castillo; Quezon City,
Philippines; March 2001)

Report No. 5

CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNS DUE TO THE

GROWTH OF AN URBAN AREA (M.A. Estoque and R.T.F. Balmori;
Quezon City, Philippines; March 2002)

Report No. 6

PREDICTABILITY OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS DUE TO EL NIO

AND LA NIA EPISODES (M.A. Estoque and R.T.F. Balmori; Quezon
City, Philippines; June 2002)

Report No. 7

ENVISIONING FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS IN THE

PHILIPPINES:
AN ANALYSIS OF GENERAL CIRCULATION
MODELS BASED ON THE SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSIONS
SCENARIO (E.R. Castillo and J.T. Villarin S.J.; Quezon City, Philippines;
May 2002)

Report No. 8

GEODYNAMICS AND GEOKINEMATICS OF SEA LEVEL RISE:

SURVEYING THE KEY FACTORS (E.R. Castillo et. al.; Quezon City,
Philippines; June 2002)

Report No. 9

DIURNAL VARIATIONS OF AIR POLLUTION OVER METRO

MANILA (M.A. Estoque and R.T.F. Balmori; Quezon City, Philippines;
December 2002)

Report No. 10

A METHOD FOR DEVELOPING CLIMATOLOGICAL RAINFALL

INFORMATION: A PRELIMINARY APPLICATION TO LUZON (M.A.
Estoque and R.T.F. Balmori; Quezon City, Philippines; May 2003)